The Kevin Sheehan Show - Rivera + NFL Playoffs

Episode Date: January 14, 2022

Kevin today with a reaction to a few things said by Ron Rivera on his WTEM-980 radio show this morning. Also, the best to worst of the NFL Playoff match-ups this weekend along with 6 "Smell Test" Playoff picks.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Several things on the show today. First of all, I've got six smell test picks, and four of them are totals over unders. There are a couple of stats, one that's very flattering about a portion of the Washington football team, and one that is not very flattering about a specific player on the Washington football team. Also, I will rank the six playoff games, one of which is on Monday night, from the game that I'm most interested in to the game that I am least. interested in, and I will exclude the gambling aspect from those games and focus solely on the

games themselves. But I want to start the show today with Ron Rivera. Ron Rivera comes on my radio show every week, has been all season long, and he came on the radio show for the final time during the season anyway. This morning at 8 a.m. I'd urge you to go to the team 980.com, and you can hear the interview in its entirety. He had a lot to say, by the way, about the Snyders and him presenting to them this week and having a conversation with them this week about the season. He talked a lot about moments during the season that he thought could have been game changers, you know, season changers, and a lot more. I'm going to play four cuts for you, though. I thought they were interesting cuts, and I want to react to each one of them. The first is the first of two,

where I focused on this job that Ron Rivera has here in D.C. that he didn't have in Carolina, two years into wearing both hats, the head coaching hat and the head of football operations hat. Remember, you know, it was just over two years ago. We got the introductory press conference. Happy Thanksgiving. First off, happy Thanksgiving, everybody. And we were told about this coach-centric approach,

where Ron Rivera was going to have final say on every. everything. He was going to be the head coach and he was also going to be the head football decision maker. So I asked two questions on this particular topic. The first of which was essentially to ask him in this new role, which is different than the one that he had in Carolina, how he thinks he's doing. Two seasons into your tenure here. And for the first time, you know, as in a coach-centric system and approach, being the lead decision maker on all football decisions, how do you think you're doing on handling both that and being the head coach simultaneously? Well, I think, you know, we're doing some pretty good things.

We're learning. We're growing. We're developing. You know, we're making good decisions. We're making bad decisions. I mean, this is all about growth and understanding. And the proof won't be in the pudding until, you know, we get to next season and see where we are. That to me is when you can truly get a good evaluation as to we're headed in the right direction or not. The end of the third year. This is a big year. Now, it's different than the first go around in Carolina because you had the quarterback, but you're still, you're sticking with this third year being a telling year one way or the other.

Absolutely. I really think more so anything else is that we have an opportunity to take a step forward, a good step. And so I'm excited. I really am. I'm looking forward to getting to work and mapping out and planning out the future as we go forward. So I thought that was an interesting answer from Ron Rivera. It's not the first time we've heard it. He said the same thing or a similar thing earlier this week when he was side by side with Martin Mayhew in that press conference with the beat reporters. But I think it's interesting on a couple of fronts. The second front, which I will get to here at a moment, is actually, I guess maybe a little bit contrarian thinking. But wait on that for a minute. Let me first say this. is essentially telling you it's year three of a five-year deal, I've got to deliver. I've got to deliver a winning record. I've got to deliver a playoff team. More importantly, I've got to deliver the beginning of a run. He is the one that's talked about culture, sustained winning, and I think the year three is for him a flashback to Carolina, where in his first year he went six and ten,

In his second year he went seven and nine, and in his third year he went 12 and four, and it was the first year of a five-year run of winning three division titles, going to the playoffs four times, and going to the Super Bowl once, where they lost to Denver in 2015. There's an obvious big difference. You know, I think he recognizes the big difference, but still, it's year three here, and in year three, in his first head coaching stint, that's when he started the run. a five-year run, a very healthy five-year run, where Carolina was one of the threats in the NFC. They had Cam Newton. They had a franchise quarterback. By the way, they had a better team all around. They had Luke Keekley in year two. That year two was the year that Keekley joined the Panthers and became the Cam Newton of the defense. But that defense had some talent to begin with, you know, the Greg Hardee's and the K-Wan shorts and the Charles Johnson.

and the Thomas Davis's and the Shaq Thompson's and the Josh Normans. You know, offensively, they never had great wide receivers, although they did have Steve Smith. You know, they had Steve Smith, who eventually left Carolina and went to Baltimore, and they had pretty good backs in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. And they had Greg Olson to a tight end. It's not like they were lacking talent. It wasn't, though, that they were a super explosive team offensively. Their star was Cam Newton.

And you can think whatever you want about Cam Newton's career. He was an ascending player during those years. He was a franchise quarterback. If we had had a conversation about Cam Newton in 2014, 2015, 2016, many of you would say he's a top five guy, worst case, top 10 guy. That's the big difference. Ron here in year three doesn't have those same expectations because he doesn't have the same team. In fact, I don't think the expectations are very high at all.

I think the expectations after last year were higher. But where I think he has to deliver is not maybe where he was telling us he has to deliver. Where he has to deliver is here in the off season. He's got to deliver a franchise quarterback. And I know we've joked in the past about the best season for Washington is the off season, not the regular season. You know, my good friend Doc Walker always says about this franchise. They're phenomenal Mondays through season. Saturdays, Sundays are the problem. But this is one of those years where the off-season is actually

more important than next year's regular season. Because next year's regular season, forget about it. The prospect of it being a step-forward season without a quarterback, you know, those odds aren't very high. He's got to deliver here before his third year in the off-season by landing a quarterback. Now look, there's a possibility he could land a quarterback that's ready to go, and they end up taking a big step forward next year because he got a quarterback, a veteran quarterback, via trade or free agency that was ready to roll as a franchise quarterback, and even if the team isn't perfect around him, he elevates the team.

But I'm talking about if he delivers even with a rookie quarterback, let's just say they draft Kenny Pickett. If Kenny Pickett goes 8 and 9 like Justin Herbert did, or Herbert went 7 and 9 in his first year. But we know at the end of next year that they got the right guy, they got a franchise quarterback. That will be a step forward year. That will be a year in which he delivered.

Even if they're 8 and 9, or 7 and 10 or 9 and 8 and missed the playoffs, he's got to deliver in the off season. He didn't say that. But I think he feels that. He feels year 3 is important. it's not because he's going to get fired. I've said this before. I do not think that Ron Rivera will get fired in this first five years of his deal.

I don't. I think the Snyders right now have much bigger fish to fry. And they like Ron. And they like what he's doing. And really, you know, they're not in a position to, you know, let Ron go now, financially and otherwise. I think if Ron Rivera doesn't fulfill the five-year deal, it's because he chose not to.

But I think the best chance for Ron Rivera, to fulfill the five years and to get something rolling here legitimately the way he sees it, you know, a sustained winner, which he wants to start next year, is he has to deliver here in the offseason. He's got to deliver the quarterback, period. This is bigger than the results next year because the results aren't going to be there without the quarterback. And the results if it's a rookie quarterback that's ascending won't be nearly as important. All right, the The second cut that I want to play for you was kind of an add to this first answer. I asked him about wearing both hats in the organization, and if wearing both hats

affects the head coaching portion of his job at all. Here's what he said. Well, I will say I do delegate a little bit more, and I do like what the coordinators have done. I really do. I get an opportunity to spend time with these guys, get an opportunity to be in meetings with these guys, and listen and watch. And so, you know, as far as that's concerned, delegating,

that's all part of, you know, the situation circumstances I have now. I think that answer from Ron Rivera is interesting because, and I'm not so sure I knew this, but I probably would have guessed it, but I think he is definitely more of a CEO coach. You know, I think these two coordinators, Jack Del Rio and Scott Turner have a ton of autonomy. And he has spoken to some of that in the past when he's talked about Scott Turner or Jack Del Rio, but I don't think he's ever used the word delegate the way he did there, that he

delegates more than he did in Carolina. And I've gotten that sense. And certainly at the beginning of last year when he was battling cancer, he had to delegate a lot more out of necessity. But I think that's essentially the kind of coach he is now. doesn't mean that he's not involved in the biggest game day decisions, you know, when to go for it on fourth down and when to go for two, et cetera, et cetera. But I don't think Jack Del Rio and Scott Turner are going anywhere.

If anybody has any sort of thoughts that those kinds of coaching changes are going to be made. You know, Tommy is reported here on the podcast previously that he has sources that have told him that Jack Del Rio is much more influential, you know, as a coach in that, locker room than just being the defensive coordinator. I don't doubt that to be true. I also think that Scott Turner is respected by Ron Rivera. Now look, they'll probably let him go over the weekend and I'll look stupid for saying this. But it's partly because I believe Scott Turner is doing a pretty good job. I know many of you disagree. That's fine. I look at what he's working with and what he's been working with quarterback in particular. I mean, many of you people who are really big Taylor Heineke fans in terms of

not just being a fan like all of us are to a certain degree, but thinking that he's the answer, think that Scott Turner's really held them back. I don't think that's true at all. I think, first of all, Scott Turner is the one that picked him, and Scott Turner has schemed up a lot of offense with limitations at quarterback. Limitations in a lot of places, actually, you know, especially with some of the injuries that they had this year. I think, if you go back and you watch the All-22. And Ron Rivera told me this mid-season, Scott Turner schemed a lot of people open that weren't necessarily thrown to.

But anyway, the bottom line off this answer, I think Ron Rivera told us that he delegates more. And I think that coupled with some of the things that he has said over the last year about his coordinators and the trust that he has. I think those positions and those two people in particular have a lot of autonomy, and I don't think they're going anywhere. All right, the next cut that I wanted to play for you, I just thought was interesting because I had this hunch that Landon Collins is coming back, that they really, really liked Landing Collins in that position that they moved him to, maybe, you know, later than we would have wanted, better late than never, I guess. but I asked him about Landon Collins.

You'll hear my question and his answer. Did your opinion long-term or short-term on Landon Collins change after you moved him exclusively or mostly exclusively into that Buffalo Nickel position? I'll put it this way. The thing that I like about is it excites me because of how he played it and how he really just absorbed it. and he became that buffalo nickel, the hybrid, as he likes to call it. He really, I mean, he was very productive, and that's what, you know, watching him, that's what we believe he can do.

He's a disruptor. He really was, and he made some impacts on some plays. Just don't put an LB next to his name, right? Exactly, exactly. Landing Collins is coming back next year. That's my guess. Now, they can get out of the deal and then inexpensive way, you know, before this upcoming season if they wanted to. Last year, it would have been much more expensive to bail on him. But I think they really liked Landon Collins in this role.

I think you could hear it in Jack Del Rio's voice a couple of times this year. I know Landon Collins doesn't want to be called a linebacker, and they don't have to call him a linebacker. They can still keep an S next to his name. But I just have this sense that he's under contract for another three seasons. He's entering his age 28 season. Health was obviously an issue at times here during this contract. But I think that Landon Collins is a player that they really enjoyed watching play that position. And they thought they were much better defensively when they moved him to that position.

I know that there were points during the season where we all said, well, this is going to be it for Landon Collins. I think actually there's a pretty good chance he comes back. His cap number next year is a big cap number. It's $16.2 million. You know, the dead cap, you know, number is 9.6. So they'd actually save now money if they released him. They could potentially try to restructure the deal with him. But I think they want him to stay.

Just a gut feel. and I think you could hear it in Ron's voice there. The last cut that I wanted to play is on the quarterback and the quarterback search. We know that Ron, you know, wants leadership at the position. We know that this is a priority here in the offseason. I asked him, and you'll hear the question, but essentially I wanted to know what they were looking for physically in terms of the attributes of their next quarterback. Here's what he said.

What about some of the physical attributes that you prefer in a quarterback? quarterback? Well, you know, one of the things that you have to have is you have to have the arm first and foremost. You've got to be able to make all the throws. And most of the guys, you know, that obviously we will talk about will have that ability. The next is what we call quick twitch. That's the guy that when he sees it, makes a decision, goes with it, it doesn't take very long for him to deliver the ball. And so that's something that we want. We don't want the guy back there, you know, holding the ball poised to get hit. We want the ball out of his hands. The other thing we want is a guy that has some mobility that can move in the pocket,

extend the play, keep a play alive, and then evade the rush. That's another thing that's important to is being able to evade the rush. So, you know, there's a lot of qualified candidates as far as we're concerned out there. And, you know, we're going to vet them all. They've got to vet them all, and they will. This is their number one priority. I played that cut for you because you could kind of tell that this is an answer he's given internally. with the Marties and Martins and all of the key people in personnel in terms of what they're

looking for. You know, arm strength, quick twitch, he said, quick release, mobility, evade the rush. That's what he's looking for. I think the mobility thing is so huge. I think that's one of their reasons they've been interested in Trubisky, which would be a surprise interest, I think. But I think it's one of the things that they like about him is that, He's very mobile.

By the way, that's what they loved about Taylor Heineke. But, you know, arm strength and quick twitch, quick release, you know, he's got to be able to make all the throws. That's where, unfortunately, they just don't have that right now on the roster. And that's why when the discussion has focused on these four avenues, you know, we're going to evaluate our own roster, we're going to look at free agents, we're going to look at potential trades, and we're going to look at the draft. It's three. It's free agency, trades, and draft. They know what they have on their own roster, which is why they've spoken to this being such a priority and why their actions have essentially said this for over a year now. All right. Listen to the entire interview at the team 980.com. Again, he had a lot more to say. It was about an 18 or 19 minute interview. You can listen to it on the Odyssey app, downloading the Odyssey app. app and the Team 980.com just click on my show. And if you want to listen to that interview from today in its entirety, it's in our

number three. I'll probably tweet that out to later on today or at some point this weekend from at Kevin Sheehan, DC. All right. When we come back, two stats from the season that I want to share with you, one that is kind of flattering but weird. and number two is very unflattering of a specific player. Also, I'll rank the playoff games this weekend from the best to worst from my perspective,

and then we'll finish up the show with a smell test. Right after these words from a few of our sponsors. A request of all of you, and I know I've made it a lot recently, rate us and review us if you can, especially on Apple and Spotify, really helps us. Brendan, my radio producer, gave me two statistical numbers or results from the 2021 season this morning that I wanted to share with you. The first one was this. It was a combination of ESPN's win rate and pro football focus is pass protection grade. It's a overall pass protection ranking, meaning which teams protected its passer, the best.

best in the NFL. You know, which offensive lines combined with, you know, backs that are also involved in pass protection? Which teams had the best pass protecting offenses? Washington was fourth overall in the league. Tampa was one, the Rams were two, Dallas was three, and Washington was four. I think that we all have this sense that the offensive line was pretty good. this year that it was the pleasant surprise. They did a great job, adding Charles Leno, then extending him just a few weeks ago. You know, Eric Flowers, finding Sam Cosmy in the draft, having Brandon Sheriff, even with the rotating chairs, the musical chairs at center, the offensive line was standout this year. You know, certainly much better than any of us

anticipated it being. But fourth overall in pass protection, I would not have guessed that. I would have guessed that they were very high as a run blocking unit, not as high in pass protection. Although I didn't think the pass protection unit was poor. I thought it was really good for a lot of games. There were some games in which I thought it really struggled. But fourth overall is pretty damn good. But here's why I'm revealing this result. Because of the top eight teams in overall pass protection, I already told you the bucks were won, the Rams were two, the Cowboys were three, Washington was four. The Eagles were five, the chiefs were six, the 49ers were seven, and the Packers were eight. Notice something? Washington's the only team in the group, not in the

postseason. The top eight pass protection units, seven are in the playoffs, one isn't. you know, one of the big differences, obviously, would be look at who quarterbacks at least four, five of those other seven teams, right? Pat Mahomes, Aaron Rogers, Dak, Prescott, Tom, Brady, Matt Stafford, and then you got Jalen Hertz and Jimmy Garoppolo and the other two playoff teams. By the way, the only poor pass protection unit in the postseason is Tennessee. They actually rank near the bottom. Cincinnati wasn't very good either. But almost everybody else near the bottom, Miami, Carolina, Atlanta, Minnesota, Seattle, they're all out of the playoffs. Houston, all out of the playoffs. Here was another number that I wanted to share with you. I know that we mentioned this at some point during the season.

Pro football focus produces a stat called turnover-worthy passes. Passes thrown by the quarterback, that were turnover worthy. I mean, you know, threw it to a bad pass that should have been picked off. Taylor Heineke was second to last. Or second to, he was second overall, meaning he had 27 turnover worthy passes. That was second in the league to Ben Rathesberger.

And if you watch Rathesberger, it did seem like he threw a lot of ball, that didn't get picked during the course of the year. Taylor Heineke, second most in the league during the 2021 season behind Rotheltsberger in turnover-worthy passes. I think we would have guessed that it would have been high. I don't know that I would have guessed that high, but I would have guessed top five in the league. All right, I wanted to get, before I get to my smell test, I want to rank the playoff games this weekend in terms of which are the most interesting to me.

Number one for me, I'm really looking forward to this Philadelphia-Tampa game. I've been talking the Eagles up, I know, all year long, going back to before the season started. I just had this sense that they had more talent than people thought. What I didn't know is anything about their head coach or their coaching staff. I'm also a Jalen Hertz fan. I talked about in the preseason how he had finished up strong. Boy, Eagle fans, you know, I don't know if they're still looking for a new quarterback. I wouldn't. I think he also rises to the occasion in a big spot. He did it in that SEC title game

when he came in for Tua. He did it for Oklahoma several times. I like Jalen Hertz. I love their rushing attack. And I know they're going against a very good run defense, but I think this is a fascinating matchup. I think the Eagles have a chance. You will hear them as part of the smell test in the next segment. That's the game more than any other I'm looking forward to watching. And I guess on some level, even though they're a division team, I'm kind of rooting for Philly. You know, I kind of have a vested interest in them making me look good because I have sort of been on them for much of the year. The second most interesting game to me is the other playoff game involving a division team, the Dallas Cowboys hosting the San Francisco 49ers. When in doubt,

I always think about the quarterback and I think about the coaching staff. Mike McCarthy I think is going to cost them a chance at some point. I think he is a terrible in-game coach. I also think they've got a kicker that is very unreliable and inconsistent in Greg Zerline. I know I've said during the course of the season that McCarthy is going to cost him a game and Zerline's going to cost him a game. I don't know if it's this game or not. But the coaching staff is something when in doubt, look at the coaches and then look at the

quarterbacks. Well, I would definitely give the coaching advantage to Kyle Shanahan. his group. But I'd give the quarterback advantage to Dak Prescott, even though I think Garoppolo's capable of playing a really good game in a big spot. That game is fascinating. I think this is a really tough one to call. It doesn't mean it won't be in the smell test, by the way. But in terms of analyzing this game, I think the 49ers are certainly a chic, you know, road pick this weekend. And they're definitely capable of running the ball against Dallas. Dallas is giving giving up some yards on the ground.

This is going to come down to, you know, Jimmy G. Does he make too many mistakes? Does he make the big throw when he's got to deliver it or not? Because I think the 49ers can keep Dallas's offense off the field with their running game, but will they be able to finish? And in a close game, do you trust Jimmy Garoppolo or Dak Prescott? Well, Garoppolo delivered last week, and he's delivered before. By the way, I think in terms of pressure this weekend, the Cowboys'

have a lot of pressure on them to win this game. I'll tell you shortly who I think has the most pressure of anybody this weekend. Eagles, Bucks, the game I'm most interested in watching, 49ers Cowboys number two. Number three would be the Monday night game between the Cardinals and the Rams. First of all, I don't think all is right with the Rams. I just think something's wrong. And it's not just Stafford, you know, who's thrown a bunch of picks. And at the same time, by the way, led a 92-yard drive to give the Rams the lead with two-plus minutes to go in the game last week. They ended up not winning the game. They lost the game in overtime to San Francisco. They still won the division, but they ended up being the four-seed instead of the two-seat.

But the Rams Cardinals matchup is a match-up between two teams that aren't playing their best football right now. The Cardinals haven't been, and I don't think the Rams really have. been. I don't know who's going to win that game. I think this is one of the harder games to figure out this weekend. But I do know this, that there's no player this weekend, in my opinion, that has more pressure on him than Matt Stafford. Matt Stafford has been the guy we've all talked about for a long period of time now as the guy that if he were on a really good team, look out. Well, they went 12 and 5, and he had a good season. He's thrown a lot of picks here recently. There's no doubt about that. But he is over for playoff opportunities. They lost to New Orleans in a

wild card game when he was in Detroit, even though he played well, and they scored like 35 points. I think it was 45 to 35. And then they lost a wild card round game at Dallas, a game they actually should have won. They got hosed from an officiating standpoint. But I don't think there's any pressure, like the pressure on Matt Stafford this weekend. The expectations were that if Matt Stafford went to a good team, a good franchise, with a good head coach, with weapons, et cetera, on a good team, that they would go far, that he would prove to be an elite quarterback. He threw for almost 5,000 yards this year. You know, he threw 41 touchdown passes to 17 interceptions, but he did throw 17 interceptions and several pick sixes. I think there's a lot of pressure on Matt

Stafford. I would lean Rams. I think he'll come through, but I think that's an awfully tough game to pick on Monday night. So that for me is number three in terms of the most interesting games of the weekend. Number four is the game Saturday night in Buffalo. First of all, it's going to be four or five degrees at kickoff. Secondly, another player with a little bit of pressure on him, I think, in Josh Allen. Look, he made it to the AFC title game last year. You know, after that first playoff experience two years ago in Houston, where he really kind of blew the game for them in the second half. But I think there's some pressure on Buffalo. You know, they are now two-time, two consecutive AFC East championships for them.

They have taken over sort of the Patriots mantle in the division, but they're playing the Patriots. And in some ways, I think this is like a no-lose situation. Mack Jones is a rookie. going in, Belichick turned it around. You know, after one year being out of the playoffs, he's back in it. But I don't sense that there's a lot of, you know, pressure on Belichick. I think Buffalo was a Super Bowl, you know, contender thought of to be a Super Bowl potential contender before the year started. This is a big spot for them.

They can't lose this game at home. They lost in that Monday night game when Mack Jones threw three balls. It's going to be super cold. I don't think super windy, but super cold. I like the bills in this game. I think they're the better team, and I think they'll prove it tomorrow night. I also think there's a lot of, you know, Belichick getting points in a playoff game. We'll see.

So that is number four of the six games on the list. Number five is the first game tomorrow between the Raiders and the Bengals. Look, this is going to be the first of, I think, many, many years of Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase in the postseason. So this will be the first time we get to see Joe Burrow. Jamar Chase and that offense in the postseason. And they're playing a team that really came through an incredible, incredible season of true turmoil, you know, from the Gruden episode to the tragedy involving Henry Ruggs. And this team has an interim head coach. And they had to win a game last Sunday night that was crazy. They had to win four in a row. Let's not forget, they lost a

Washington, and then they lost to Kansas City 48 to 9. And then they had this game rescheduled to a Monday afternoon against Cleveland. Remember, nobody with the Raiders was very happy about that game being rescheduled. They barely beat them. They barely beat Denver. They barely beat, even though it was a solid win at Indianapolis. And then they beat the Chargers last week in that epic on Sunday night. This is an interesting game.

I give the Raiders, you know, a half a chance. You know, they may be a little sapped of energy after playing that late-night Sunday night game and having to play the first game on Saturday. This isn't the first time, by the way, we've seen short turnarounds for playoff teams. But this is an intriguing game for sure. Raiders, Bengals, tomorrow. It is going to be part of the smell test when I get to it. And then the game that really, I think, is at the bottom of everybody's list, Chiefs Steelers.

Now, part of it is like, okay, let's see if Ben Rothesberger has one last, you know, act here. I mean, they got into the postseason winning that game against Baltimore last week, and he made some big plays. You know, he made the touchdown throw that gave him the lead. He made him the fourth down throw in overtime on fourth and eight to set up the game-winning field goal. You know, it's a good defensive team, and the chiefs, you know, have against better defensive teams. You know, they've struggled a little bit, including last week at Denver. Denver had them dead to write in the game they needed to win to ensure that they got the two-seed and even gave him a chance at a one-seat.

I, this is, you know, the Steelers are good defensively, but man, it's going to take a plus three or a plus four, right, in the turnover margin for them to even have a chance. So that's the way I'd rank the eight playoff games this weekend. What a great weekend. They're calling it super wildcard weekend, whatever it's called. I think I mentioned this to Tommy the other day. I mean, I don't know why it's ever been called wild card weekend to begin with. I mean, there are half the teams in the postseason. season this weekend are division winners, not wild card teams. But anyway, the NFL is labeled it super wild card weekend. Two games tomorrow, three on Sunday, and then one for the first time ever on Monday night. All right. We'll finish up with the smell test right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. All right, the smell test is presented by MyBooky. Go to mybooky.com or MyBooky.ag, use my promo code, Kevin D.C.

And they'll double your first deposit dollar for dollar. They're giving you free money for this weekend's games to bet with all the way up to $1,000. So if you deposit $1,000, you'll have $2,000 to gamble with. All right, two games under $500 on the smell test. But last year, it was the postseason in the Super Bowl in particular, where I went from sub-500 to up for the year. There's six plays in the smell test. Let's start with tomorrow.

I like the under in the Raiders Cincinnati game. The number is 49. The public is pounding the over in that game, figuring that, you know, the Raider defense and then Burrow and Chase that this has, you know, 41 to 31 written all over it. I'll go under on the contrarian play, Cincinnati and Raiders. On Sunday, the game that I've loved, like since the lines came out, I've really liked Philadelphia. The public is definitely all over

Tampa, and there is a lot of sharp money on Philadelphia. Give me the Eagles plus the nine at Tampa, Sunday at one. Go to the second game on Sunday. San Francisco is the pick, not only by the public, but man, listen to all the pundits. They're all jockeing the 49ers this weekend as the road team that's going to win. And oh, by the way, is a team that can make a deep run. I'll take the Cowboys, I don't love them from an analysis standpoint, but they're the right play in terms of going against the public, which is ironic because it's Dallas and they're a big public play a lot of the time. But give me the Cowboys laying the three. Also, the public loves the over in that game. It's 51. Give me the under in that game. Sunday night, people think Kansas City will score in the 40s on their own. The total is 46. Gimmity under in the Kansas City, Pittsburgh. game, and then the Monday night game is an underplay as well, under 50 Rams Cardinals. There are your smell test plays for this first wild card weekend.

Tomorrow, Raiders, Bengals, under the total, under 49, Sunday, the Eagles plus nine, the Cowboys minus three, the under in the Cowboys 49ers game under 51, the Steelers Chiefs under 46, and then Monday night, the Cardinals and Rams, the under in that game, under 50. All right, that's it for the day. Just a quick heads up. I'm going to put out a podcast tomorrow of an interview that I did with Don Marcus. Don used to write for the Baltimore Sun for many, many years, and with Dave on Grady. Dave wrote the Len Bias book called Born Ready, the Mixed Legacy of Len Bias.

The two of them have produced a podcast series. they are through like six episodes of the podcast. It's all about the Len Bias story. This isn't just for Maryland basketball fans. This is for basketball fans or for anybody that remembers the Lenn-Bias tragedy. They go into great depth and detail about the setup to that night in June of 1986. What happened that night? What happened in the immediate aftermath?

And then sort of the legacy of Lenn Bias' death. It's a very interesting conversation. I'll put that podcast out tomorrow. But in the meantime, enjoy the weekend, enjoy the football. I'll be back on Monday.