The Kevin Sheehan Show - Ron's Allen-Payne Plan

Episode Date: November 27, 2023

Kevin solo today opened with several Commanders' topics including Ron Rivera's plan to improve the team's pass rush, some thoughts on the seasons Daron Payne, Jon Allen, and Terry McLaurin are having, and a CBS Sports report about Josh Harris' GM/Head Coach plan. Kevin talked Eagles-Bills, other NFL, and some College Football as well.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. He is Kevin. Ron, what are the many of things you can do to help the front create more pressure? Well, I think, you know, we've got to look at some movements as far as those guys up front are concerned, you know, and give them an opportunity to create some one-on-ones for our tackles. You know, that's one thing we've noticed is, you know, there's been a little bit more,

obviously, attention being paid to our defensive tackles, Jonathan and Duran. So we've got to try and create some situations where they end up getting singled up a little bit more, and hopefully that will help them. So there you go, Miami. The game planned Sunday to get more pass rush is to get Duran Payne and John Allen singled up more than they've been this year so that they can pressure and sack your quarterback Tua Tungaviloa. The older brother of Talaia Tunga Viloa, as we Maryland fans refer to him,

Leah Tunga Viloa, who on Saturday, Rutgers set the Big Ten career passing yardage mark. Yeah, a Maryland quarterback is now the all-time passing yards leader in the history of the Big Ten. Congrats to Leotunga by Loa. The Terps won Saturday. They finished the regular season seven and five. They will find out what bowl game they are going to on Sunday. That was Ron Rivera, by the way, answering a question earlier today from Nikki Jabala from the Washington Post. The show today presented, as always, by Windonation. Call them at 86690 Nation or go to Windonation.com.

Mention my name. They'll take really good care of you. The show today is going to be a much shorter sprint than the 5K we did on Friday. Had Cooley on, had Jay Gruden on the day after the Dallas game, the day of Jack Del Rio's firing, although I recorded the Jay Gruden. interview on Friday morning before that news broke. But if you missed the show, that was a good one on Friday. This from Pando on Twitter, Kevin, it's always a joy when you have Chris Cooley on your show.

What about film breakdowns this week? Thank you, Pando, very much. It's not that I don't think he wants to do it. I think he loves doing film breakdowns. I think he loves watching film. I think he loves doing it for all of you and for me too. He just doesn't have time to do it. I periodically ask him, and he's always, of course, I'm going to find some time and get it done.

And then his life gets in the way of it. His life is he's coaching wrestling. He's working. He's got young kids. He loves doing it. He loves coming on this show to do it. I think it's just a matter of him having time. Last week worked out for him to at least come on and talk about the game because it was Thanksgiving.

He had the day off and he watched the game. So it was good to have him. But we'll try to get him on for a specific assignment or two before the end of the year. This from Rob, Kevin, not sure I love it when you have two guests on the show. One should be Max. Thank you, Rob. How about none today? Nobody's scheduled for today.

It's just me. that might be worse than at least one guest. You'll have to let me know. Anyway, back to what Ron said about the pass rush, because I was thinking about their pass rush, and I wondered where some of the numbers were. I'll get to Duran and John in a moment, but did you know that Washington is currently eighth in the league

in Sacks with 35? Now, they've played one more game than some teams, not one more game than most teams now. We have very few buys left in the week. Washington still has their buy week. That's coming up after the game Sunday against Miami. Washington 8th in the league with 35 sacks on the season. They did have nine in one game.

They had a little bit more than 25% of their sacks in one game against Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants. the next-gen-pass-rush win-rate number for them is not as impressive. 23rd in the league in next-gen's pass-rush win rate. To Duran and John Allen, since Ron brought both of them up in his answer today, Duran Payne has two sacks through 12 games. I know sacks aren't the end-all-be-all. But you know who usually ends up among the leaders?

in sacks in the NFL, the best pass rushers in the league? You know, you hear all the time, sacks aren't the end-all be-all. Sometimes it's kind of lucky or good fortune and, you know, how many people you're tying up and allowing others. No. T.J. Watt, here are the leaders in sacks. You ready? T.J. Watt, Khalil Mack, Miles Garrett, DeNeil Hunter,

Josh Allen, Max Crosby, Micah Parsons, Kavon, Tibon. That's your top eight this year. You want to go back to last year's list in terms of sacks? How about Nick Bosa, Hassan Reddick, Miles Garrett, Chris Jones, Matthew Judon, Micah Parsons, J.J. Watt, Max Crosby. Duran Payne was 12th last year on that list. Tiran Payne, two sacks through 12 games, tied for 142nd in the league in sacks. Last year he had 11 and a half, finished 12th in the league overall, third among defensive

tackles. He's got just two this year. Last year also, he had 18 TFL's tackles for loss. That was fourth best in the league last year. It was the best in the league among defensive tackles last year. He's got nine through 12 games this year that's tied for 26th in the league. the league tied for sixth among defensive tackles. He's actually tied with John Allen, who's got the same number of TFLs. I'm not sure who gets double-teamed more. I was looking for

those numbers. They have double-team rates for the guys that get double-team the most. I don't know who gets doubled more, Payne or Allen. I would bet that it's pain a little bit more by just a tiny bit over Allen, but I'm not sure about that. I think sometimes it's not who the opponent is doubling. You know, it's more about their own interior offensive line weakness, meaning, you know, it's not picking Duran Payne or John Allen to double team. It's based on, you know, let's just say hypothetically, their left guard is their weak link. And so they're going to give him the most help. whomever is lined up in front of him is going to ultimately get doubled more in a game. Anyway, not great years for Payne or Allen, both of whom were pro bowlers last year.

I don't think either one of them will be in the Pro Bowl this year. John Allen actually has five and a half sacks. He had seven and a half last year. So I said something this morning on my radio show that I know I've said on the podcast as well, but it doesn't sit well with everybody. That's fine. But what it had to do with was kind of attempting, if you will, to constructively critique Terry McClorn in a way that, you know, for some of you, it upsets you. And that's fine. This came from Brad. My two cents on your nagging of Terry McLorn. Is that what I'm doing? Nagging? Anyway, Brad continues.

Terry's numbers aren't the whole story, Kevin. He's not a major focus for the offensive coordinator. He's played with bad quarterbacks until this year, and you don't give him nearly enough credit for being a really good blocker. You know, Brad, you're right. Terry does a nice job as a blocker. And Brad, he has had nothing to work with the quarterback since he got here until this year.

You're right on both fronts. And I think you're also right that the OC, no OC here, has actually just decided, hey, we're going to feed 17. You know, we're going to feed Terry McLorn. That's our offense when we throw the football. I don't think any offensive coordinator has done that while they've been here. Brad, I like Terry McLorn. He's a good receiver. My criticism or my critique, because it's not criticism.

is that while he is a number one receiver, you know, in the NFL, up here, as Coach Joe would say, he's just not what some think he is, some in our fan base think he is, in my opinion. I mean, I think there's a pretty big drop-off between, you know, five guys, which I would put at the top tier, maybe six, you know, Tarek Hill, AJ Brown, Devonte Adams, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, maybe Stefan Diggs. You know, that's kind of the first tier. Terry McLaren's not those guys. I mean, you can watch with your own eyes these games.

He's just not at that level. I think we can all agree on that. I would hope we can. And then there's a second tier of receivers. You know, if Diggs isn't in the first tier, he leaves. leads the second tier with the guy like Cooper Cup, D. Bo Samuel, I hate to say it, but C.D. Lamb. You know, I think now Amon Ross St. Brown, maybe even Brandon Ayuk, you know, Metcalf, Mike Evans. I guess you could, you know, you could think about Terry in the back half of that group.

But more likely than not, he's kind of in the group with everybody else. And I think after really those first five or six, you know, maybe throw in cup, throw in, you know, maybe Lamb now, maybe Metcalf Evans. Anyway, he's in the conversation with guys like DJ Moore and Devante Smith and Amari Cooper and Garrett Wilson. I'm sure I'm missing some guys without even getting into guys that are younger, like rookies or second year guys. I mean, Terry right now is tied for 25th in the NFL in yards. 25th.

And he's played the max number of games, 12. He's 16th in targets, 17th in receptions. He's 20th in the league in 20-yard-or-more receptions, all right, big plays. He's 58th in yards per reception. He's got two touchdowns. I mean, he doesn't have a shot in hell, right, of making the Pro Bowl this year. I mean, maybe as an alternate, unless he goes wild here over the next few weeks. I mean, he certainly wouldn't deserve it. Jefferson, if he comes back, he's going to get voted in.

He's the best receiver in the NFC. Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the NFC. All right. A.J. Brown's probably second. And then I hate to say it again because I didn't think C.D. Lamb was this kind of a player. But Lamb and probably Amman Ross St. Brown are all in front of him. Evans is there too. He could be an alternate. I don't know. but the numbers aren't all his fault. I get that. I get it. The numbers aren't all his fault.

They haven't been. And this year, where they've got a quarterback and they've got a pass heavy offense, it is a bit strange, right? That Sam Hal leads the league in attempts, completions, he's fifth in passing yards per game. You'd think that Terry McCorn would have great league leading or top 10 kind of numbers. He doesn't. The reason is they've really spread it around.

Washington, listen to this. Washington has five guys with at least 33 receptions this year. All right. Terry leads that group with 60. And then you have Curtis Samuel with 47, Logan Thomas with 45, Jahan Dotson with 42, and Antonio Gibson with 33. By the way, I'm just thinking about this. Jehan Dotson has played 12 games. That's the number he played last year. He played 12 out of the 17. Let's compare John Dotson's 22-Rookie year in his 20-23 year two based on the same number of games. So he played 12 games. I was right about that.

He had 35 receptions last year. He's got 42 this year. He had 523 yards last year, 435 this year. He averaged 14.9 yards per reception last year. Had seven touchdowns. He's got four right now. So a better rookie year, even though it's less on the reception front, but a better rookie year than he's had in year two. And obviously the eye test would say that as well.

But Washington has five guys with at least 33 catches, four with at least 42 catches. Here's something by comparison. Miami, their next opponent is the number one pass offense in the NFL in yards per game. they only have two guys with more than 20 catches. Washington has five with at least 33 and four with at least 42. Miami's only got two with more than 20. Hills got 88 and Waddle's got 52. Nobody else with more than 20 catches.

I mean, Bienemy and Hal have spread it around better than any of the league leading passing offenses. it's not even close. I mean, here's the Washington numbers on catches, receptions, etc. I mean, Terry is benefiting from being in an offense that's been productive from a passing standpoint, but he's not benefiting individually for being in a really high volume passing offense that focuses solely on their best receiver, which I think, you could say is him. He's been targeted the most by a long shot. He's got, you know, he's been targeted the most. His percentage of receptions to targets is the least among the players

on the team. But Samuel's got 47 catches. Dotson's got 42. Logan Thomas has 45, so he's third in front of Dotson. And then it's Gibson with 33 and Brian Robinson with 29. I mean, Diommy Brown's got 11 catches. Pringle's got 13 now. Crowder's got 15 catches. Bates has 15, turners got 10. I mean, they got a lot of dudes that have caught balls in double-digit numbers this year. A lot. But I do like Terry. I do. I think Terry's a really good receiver. I'm just not in that camp with some of you that believe that he is elite or if he were with a much better quarterback, he'd be elite. I don't think that's true. I don't.

I think that when you watch Hill and you watch A.J. Brown and when you watch Devante Adams and Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase and Stefan Diggs, they just are better receivers overall. They're better with the ball. They're better at getting open than they are certainly better most of them at yards after catch. Where is he in yards after catch? I didn't look that up. I can't imagine he's very high in yards after catch among receivers. I mean, there are a lot of running backs on this list, obviously.

Yards after catch, I mean, Tariq Hill leads the league. Jamar Chase is third. Amon Ross St. Brown's fourth. C.D. Lamb is sixth. Keenan Allen. I didn't even mention Keenan Allen. He's a stud. He's seventh.

DJ Moore's ninth, Brian Robinson's 10th in the league in yards after catch. Where's Terry? Terry is way down the list. 61st in the league in yards after catch. He's not an elite receiver. He's not a second tier. He's a number one wide receiver. He's a top half of the league starting wide receiver.

He is. But I think by the time we get to the end of this year and we start having this conversation in advance of 2024. I bet you will be able to name 14 minimum that you take in front of Terry. And I think Terry's good. I do. He's the best receiver they've had in a long time, you know, since Pierre, since Deshaun, you know, Jordan as a tight end may have been the best of all of them.

He could still go nuts. I'd still love to see him, you know, I love this. He's uncheckable on that slant right off the line of scrimmage. All right. There are other things to get to on the show today. Some Del Rio follow-ups, a report on CBSSports.com from over the weekend that I want to read. And then probably the game of the year from the NFL yesterday. All of that and more when we return right after these messages from a few of our sponsors.

Thank you, balance. You guys throw it a lot. You want to play better complementary football. Do those two things work together? or how do you kind of balance those things? Well, they can. Again, a lot of it has to do with, you know, completions, obviously, is a really big thing.

And then, you know, being able to run the football based on certain points of the game. You know, you get into a certain situation, certain circumstances. You want to be able to run the ball no matter what they are. That was Ron Rivera earlier today, answering a question from Sam 48, complimentary football, balanced football.

You heard him mention twice, run the football, I wonder if Ron's final five games as a coach in the NFL, and these are going to be his final five games, certainly as a head coach in the NFL. I can't imagine Ron would go somewhere as an assistant. I think he's ready to play golf and lead the good life, I would assume, out in Northern California somewhere. But what if Ron, now that he's calling defensive signals, what if he wanted offensively to see it the way that he wants it done? and he went to Eric and said, hey, man, we need to run the ball more. We need to be more balanced.

We need to be ground and pound. He wouldn't be able to talk about the development of Sam Howe as easily if they did that. No, I think he'll leave Eric B. Enemy alone, I do. This segment of the show brought to you by Surfside, D.C., and something that makes sense this time of year, especially when you're trying to feed family and friends. Lots of family time this season, and Surf Sides, fajita boxes are here to make your dinners easy. On the go or on your way home, they are the best way to feed your crew.

With a meal, everyone will love fajita chicken, steak, veggies, all the fixings in a convenient grab and go box. I'm telling you, these fajitas are great. Thinking ahead, hop online to order a fajita box in advance. On the fly, fajita boxes can be ready in minutes flat and delivered straight to your door. Learn more at Surfside, DC.com. So I'm assuming that some of you probably have already seen this. It was a report yesterday from Jonathan Jones from CBSports.com. And it was a report about what will happen at the end of this year,

as if we didn't know already. But this is sourced and this is more official sounding, I guess, than just our conversation. But Jonathan Jones, CBS Sports, reported the following over the weekend. Quote, multiple sources tell CBS Sports that managing partner Josh Harris is inclined to keep Ron Rivera through the end of the regular season, but it is widely assumed that he will not be retained his head coach and chief of football for the commanders after the 17th game of the year. That would be the final game of the year. That means there will be a search for a head coach and very possibly a general.

General Manager in Washington this offseason, and both jobs are thought to be among the most attractive in the NFL. More than that in a moment. Rivera finishing out the season, Jones writes, is likely to take place even if Washington is mathematically eliminated from postseason contention weeks earlier. One source said Rivera has earned the right to stay through the end. Also reported by Jonathan Jones in this story. As I had discussed on Friday on the show, the decision to fire Del Rio was Rivera's decision. He writes, there was no stated mandate from ownership. And then one more, circling back to this is an attractive job. Quote, everyone's shooting for Washington, closed quote, according to one personnel executive in speaking about the commanders,

not yet vacant GM position. So anyway, look, for us living the day-to-day here, I mean, this isn't, you know, a surprising report. We understand and have understood since really before the season started that Ron Rivera was a lame duck head coach. You know, barring 10 plus wins and a playoff victory, he was gone, you know, and a lot of people are going to be gone. At four and eight with three straight losses,

with a sweep by the giants and a loss to the bears, yeah, it doesn't matter what they do down the stretch. Their minds are made up. They are going to be moving on. I think their minds were made up before the season started, and their minds would have needed to be changed by a lot of winning, which hasn't happened. So look, you know, we've known here Rivera's not coming back.

The part of the Jones story to me that is reassuring and more confirmation is that Washington is viewed as a very good opportunity for what we believe will be a GM and head coaching opportunity. You know, this has not been the case here in a long, long time. It's obvious why we've talked about it. You know, we've talked about it more so since the trades of sweat and young because of the draft choices that it brought in. But Washington right now, and I looked at this right before I started to record the podcast, they now have the second most cap space in the NFL, second in projected cap space entering 2024. You know, in addition to that, they have five picks in the first three rounds, all except for the 49er selection, being high picks in those rounds. They have perhaps, perhaps TBD, a young quarterback that can be a starter next year and maybe beyond. And most importantly, they've got normal ownership, at least as far as we can tell, compared to the situation that existed before, which was abnormal.

ownership, which made this place very toxic and kept many high-quality candidates from even considering Washington. Now it's a very attractive job, and as Jonathan Jones reported, everyone's shooting for Washington. So I wanted to read this quick email from Marty. It was an interesting one. Actually, I would have loved to have had a conversation with him, and I emailed him back. I'll see if he responds. Marty wrote via email, I'm a business consultant with an understanding of organizational culture. The firing of somebody like Jack Del Rio could ultimately be more of a problem than you think, Kevin, unless a majority of your employees believe that him being there was much worse than him not being there. It results in distrust of ownership and a belief that ownership is detached.

They have to believe that he deserved it, or this culture statement that your listeners want will work in reverse. I don't know anything about, you know, other than having worked in many companies, not in radio, having actually run a few companies, not in radio. I'm not an organizational culture expert, you know, like Marty claims to be as a consultant, perhaps, to, you know, companies and culture building, you know, employees, etc. I do, I understand what he is laying out here. What he's laying out is if Jack Del Rio was a highly respected part of the group and as far as the players were concerned was not the reason for the poor performance on defense, then, you know, firing him could be a mark against Ron.

It could be a mark against ownership. you know, we never know from the outside looking in. I mean, look, my position on the Del Rio Rivera, fired, not fired over the last couple of weeks, hasn't changed. It was justified based on the results. I didn't personally need it. I've waited 24 years for a normal organization. I can wait another month and a half.

I didn't think that, you know, it was going to be a sign of passivity or complacency. on ownership's part if they didn't do anything. I just, I didn't think that way. Some of you did. Some of you were very, very passionate in your communication with me. And I don't think that it's unjustified for you to feel that way. I do think it's a little bit of a reach for me to believe that, you know, if Josh didn't do anything, you were going to have a big problem with new ownership,

and it was going to be tough for you to kind of come back. I mean, come on. I mean, if Dan didn't run you off after 24 years, not firing Del Rio or Rivera was going to run you off, that doesn't make sense to me at all. But again, it was justified to feel like one or both should be fired is justified based on the results. And they did fire Del Rio. It didn't make a lot of you happy. A lot of you wanted it to be Rivera or both. But they weren't going to go that way and they weren't going to give it to Eric B. Enemy the rest of the way either. At least not yet. I don't think that'll happen. And I don't think that would be fair to Eric B. Enemy, as I've laid out many times in the past. But Marty, it's an interesting idea that firing somebody just to look noncomplacent or to look like you're trying to create new culture could backfire if you fire the wrong person.

I understand that. And look, I don't know if Del Rio was the problem. I do know this. at least until recently, and I don't know that it changed recently, but I know that through the first quarter of the year, even as some of the bad results were happening, Jack was well respected by his players. Ron's been well respected by his players.

It may have changed over the last several weeks, with some of these losses to the Giants twice in particular. It's possible that that changed. I do know that they had a problem with Brent V. Beeselmeyer being the D.B.'s coach and thought that it was a major downgrade from Chris Harris, and that that was a big issue with the coverage and the secondary. So there you go. That's that. All right. Let's finish up in the next segment by talking about some of the NFL from yesterday, including that Eagles Bill's game, which was just spectacular. We'll do that right after these words

from a few of our sponsors. This would be a backbreaker for Buffalo fans, and this would be the pedigree of championship teams. There goes Hertz. Hertz to the end zone. And the Eagles have won it in overtime. That's the championship DNA. We were talking about all game. It could be behind on yards on plays.

They still win. How about that Jalen Hertz? Spectacular. What a game at the link yesterday in Philadelphia. Jalen Hertz. by the way, at MyBooky right now, the favorite to win the MVP at plus 132, followed by Mahomes, and then Lamar Jackson, Tua, and DAC. That's your top five in terms of MVP odds-wise at MyBooky. Go to MyBooky.orgie. Use my promo code, Kevin D.C., and you will get a cash bonus on your initial deposit.

it. What a great game that was yesterday. There was just something about that game, too, in that it was rainy, foggy, end of November, end of a holiday weekend, high-stakes football between a Buffalo team that desperately needed it, a Philadelphia team that is battling really the 49ers, probably more so than anybody else at this point, after Detroit's Thanksgiving Day loss for the number one seed they play Sanford. this coming week. There's just something about this time a year when you get on the East Coast that late Sunday afternoon. It's dark. It's rainy. It's foggy. It's cloudy. And the game lives up to it. It was certainly one of the two or three best games of the season. I would say start to finish

maybe the best game of the season so far. Josh Allen was spectacular in the game. 29 of 51, 339, two touchdowns had an 83.1 QBR because he rushed the ball nine times for 81 yards and two scores. Buffalo desperate for a win, trying to get back into the playoff picture in the AFC. A brutal schedule ahead for them. They play the Chiefs and the Cowboys coming up. They still have games with the Chargers and the Dolphins. They had lost two of the last three. They had only beaten the Jets, so they really needed this one.

And it was a tough one. They knew it would be a tough one. And they had a 10-point lead on two different occasions. How about this? The Eagles, in their last five games where they've been down by 10 or more, they've won all five of those games, including the game on Monday night against Kansas City when they were down 17-7. There is something about this Eagles.

group, man. It is a winning organization. It is a winning team. It's a winning coaching staff, winning roster. They've got a great roster. I mean, Jalen Hertz is not healthy. They talked about this on the broadcast

yesterday, which was a Nance Romo CBS game. I'm telling you, man, Romo, I don't know if I can do Romo much more. Romo to me comes off as ill-prepared. Do you know that he said before Jake Elliott lined up to kick the field goal to tie the game from 59 yards out.

It was fourth and 17 or something like that. He actually said, and he was joking, but like, you know, the moment didn't call for necessarily a joke. And he said, what do you think, Jim? You think they might fake it here? Fake a field goal? When you're down three with 20 seconds to go? For what?

You're going to have your punter throw a pass? on fourth and 18? Whatever. Enough of Romo. What a game. Hertz during the broadcast was described as having had a knee contusion since the jet game, which is their only loss of the year. He has not looked healthy.

He hasn't talked about it much. He doesn't look as spry, as quick as fast until he has to be, like that last run in overtime for the world. win. I thought there were a couple of interesting things in this game, just to mention real quickly. At the end of regulation, before the Jake Elliott field goal, Sean McDermott took a timeout, his second timeout as an attempt to ice the kicker. He needed that time out because they were going to get the ball back with roughly 20 seconds to go if the field goal went through. And to me, they should have been in full attack mode. They've got Josh.

Allen. They've got Stefan Diggs. He took a knee after the field goal went through with 20 seconds to go. I mean, there are only a few teams you feel comfortable from their own 25-yard line trying to pick up, say, 40 yards or so, 35 to 40 yards to get into range to at least attempt one. They're one of those teams. And he had one timeout and he should have had two. And instead, they took a knee. And ultimately they lost an overtime. You know, it came down to two zero coverage all-out blitzes. One against Buffalo on their opening drive on third and six at the Philadelphia 22. Gabe Davis beat his man badly, but Allen said it was a choice route, and he thought Davis was going to go in, and Davis went out incomplete.

And then Buffalo, on first and ten at the Buffalo 12 in the red zone with two and a half to go in overtime. here they come, and they've got the perfect QB draw dialed up or at least check to, and Jalen Hertz essentially goes into the end zone untouched for the game winner. Just a classic kind of regular season game. And for Philly, they go to 10 and 1, an amazing start to this season, because they still, if you watch Philly, it doesn't appear as if they put together the perfect game yet. They get the 49ers this weekend. How about this at my bookie right now?

I'm looking at it right now. The 49ers are two and a half-point favorites at Philly Sunday. Does that tell you how much San Francisco is respected in this league by the odds makers? That is amazing. On the road at a 10-1 Philadelphia team, they are favored this Sunday. You had an unbelievable game yesterday. By the way, this weekend, a long-range forecast understood, but rain in the forecast for the East Coast on Sunday,

which would include Miami, Washington at FedEx, and would include Philly and San Francisco at Lincoln Financial, in what shapes up to be the game of the year in the NFC. The 49ers at 8 and 3, the Eagles at 10 and 1. The 49ers have to have it to have any chance at hosting the NFC championship game. Philadelphia, they're in this midst, right, of playing the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks.

They're 3-0 on the first of that brutal six-game stretch. I mean, Cowboys Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys Seahawks. They're 3-0. They beat the Cowboys at home. They beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead on Monday night, and they beat the Bills at home yesterday. meantime, you know, the bills are at 6 and 6. This AFC wild card picture is wild. The games yesterday, you know, included Denver winning a fifth straight beating the Browns. Don't be surprised if the Browns go to Joe Flacco this week and a big game that they have against the Rams on the road. The Broncos are one of the most incredible turnaround stories that we've had within a season in the NFL in a long. time. I know Jacksonville last year really turned it around. Ultimately, they won a playoff game

after starting what was it last year. Were they two and six last year? I think they were, and they ended up going nine and eight and getting to the postseason. But Denver's one in five was particularly ugly. You know, all-time bad on defense. They gave up 70 to Miami, 700 plus yards to Miami. You know, that was a week after Washington went for 35. I mean, what Denver's done and Sean Peyton, I mean, it is one of the stories of the year. They've won five in a row. They're six and five. They're tied for the seventh spot in the AFC playoff picture with Indy. I mean, it's kind of crazy, right? Because in the AFC, you've got right now Cleveland, Indie, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Indie holding down the three wild card spots with teams like

Buffalo and Cincinnati and the Chargers on the outside looking in. Cincinnati's a wreck without Joe Burrow. They seem to have no chance without Joe Burrow. The Chargers lost that game to the Ravens last night. Man, I had the Chargers in the smell test. I had the Chargers personally plus the four. I mean, come on. Zay Flowers, get down. You don't need to score. In fact, it's the wrong thing to score. He had the first down. If he goes down, it's three knees and it's a 13 to 10 final. Instead, Zay Flowers took that fly sweep and took it to the house for a touchdown and Baltimore wins 20 to 10. Man, Justin Herbert just can't seem to get it done. They had the ball midfield down 1310. They had a really good chance to tie it or maybe win it. You know, we were

talking about receivers earlier. I mean, Keenan Allen, my God, he's just so effing good. 14 catches on 16 targets. Keenan Allen. You know, we talked about Terry's 60 receptions on 97 targets, I think I said it was. Keenan Allen this year, 97 catches on 129 targets. That's amazing. Amazing. Anyway, so the Chargers certainly, the Chargers and bills certainly look, well, the bills more so look like playoff teams, but. The Chargers now, I mean, with Brandon Staley, they were better on defense.

They turned the ball over four times. They're in trouble at four and seven. The bills still have a prayer. They've got to win five, though. Four of their final five with that schedule won't be easy. They've got to get to 10. I think in the AFC, it's going to take 10. Denver, after beating the Browns, they've got three straight on the road now.

At Houston, huge game in the AFC playoff picture this coming Sunday. Houston lost to Jacksonville yesterday. They got the Chargers after that the Broncos do. and then the Lions after that. Crazy. In the NFC, the Falcons beat the Saints. Desmond Ritter threw two picks, but also had an amazing touchdown pass under pressure.

They rushed the ball for 228 against that New Orleans defense. That is really, I mean, Cordarel Patterson's back. He's playing well. Tyler Algier went for like 64 on 10 carries. Bejohn Robinson had nearly 100. they don't actually need their quarterback to do a hell of a lot. I think Atlanta really looks like the team after that win yesterday. They close against the Saints, but they have the Jets.

They've got the Panthers. They've got the Bears left on their schedule. It's probably in the NFC South. Tampa is only a game back at 4 and 7. The NFC South looks like the NFC East did back in 2020. But anyway, some really good games yesterday, you know, highlighted, of course, by the Eagles and the Bills. By the way, the Rams have won two in a row. They're back in contention. You know, those that were thinking, well, Washington can beat the Jets.

They can beat the Rams. They'll probably be underdogs in both of those games. They'll certainly be an underdog at this point against the Rams if they're healthy. They are surging towards, you know, playoff contention in the NFC. real quickly the games on Saturday in college football Michigan I thought was the better team not by much I mean that was a hell of a game obviously a big call on that touchdown that made it 14 to 3 could have been an interception I didn't think there was enough there to overturn

that call and now Michigan is three in a row against Ryan Day in Ohio State and I know that does not please Buckeye Nation but the Buckeyes aren't done yet you know there is definitely a scenario in which Ohio State could still get there. And the scenario goes like this. Georgia beats Bama in the SEC title game. How about that Iron Bowl? What a finish.

You know, 10 years after the kick six, we've now got 4th and 31 Milro to Bond. Just amazing. Auburn was really good in that game. They were a pick. The smell test was good on Saturday, 4 and 2 on Saturday, 1 3 and 1 yesterday, with the Bairs pending tonight plus the three. Did you see, by the way, I know I'm rambling here, that right now the potential exists for more favorites to cover in an NFL weekend than ever before. 12 of the 15 games were covered by favorites. If the Vikings do it tonight, it would be

an all-time mark for favorites covering. That's not good for contrarian betters. One of the reasons I was won three-and-one yesterday. I actually had a favorite that lost. One of the dogs that did cover were the Giants. I had the Patriots. But back to the potential for Ohio State. If Georgia beats Bama, there are four and a half point favorite. Michigan beats Iowa.

There are 23-point favorite in the Big Ten title game. And then let's just say the Oregon-Washington winner, whomever it is. If Florida State were to lose to Louisville, they're only a three-point favorite in that game. They're just a different team without their quarterback, but they're going to get in if they win. They came back in the swamp to beat Florida, which was impressive because it looked like they were about to get their ass kicked. They were down 12-0, and they came back and won that game. But if Florida State were to lose to Louisville and Texas were to lose to Oklahoma State, who barely qualified for the Big 12th championship game, they were down to BYU big and came back and won that game.

But Ohio State would likely be the fourth team. If Florida State and Texas lose, along with Alabama losing to Georgia, yeah, Ohio State is probably in as the fourth team. As a one-loss team over at that point, the only other one-loss team that would be in contention would be Washington and Florida State. And personally, I think Ohio State would certainly be ahead of Florida State in that scenario. Florida State's eliminated with a loss completely.

And Washington, even though the loss would come to a team that some believe is the best team in the country right now, it's hard for me to disagree with that based on the eye test. Oregon's been awesome. But if Washington played a super close game against Oregon, it might go to Washington over Ohio State. But the Buckeyes aren't dead yet. They're not. Heisman trophy odds. Bow Nicks is a slight favorite over Jaden Daniels after this past weekend.

It's a two horse race between those two pennies. Jr. is not going to win it. And it'll probably go to Nix. Probably will go to Nix, even though I think Jaden Daniels has had the best season of any college football player. He was sensational on Saturday in their comeback win over Texas A&M. A lot of people will look at the numbers and they'll say, wow, that wasn't really a Jaden Daniels day. He only had in the whole game four touchdowns and accounted for just over 400 yards, I think it was in that game. Wait a minute, hold on, I pulled up the wrong box score.

Let me just make sure I got the right one here. Yeah, in the game, Daniels had four passing touchdowns and accounted for 235 passing yards, 120 rushing yards, so 355 yards. But they only had the ball in the game for 52 snaps. That is it. So their production on 52 snaps was pretty outrageous. All right. That is it.

One more smell test pick, if you're interested, I gave out the bears. I'm sticking with the bears. That line is still plus three tonight. just looking to see if it's been updated at all. Yeah, I still got plus three pretty much everywhere. I like the Bears tonight. The public loves Minnesota. No Justin Jefferson for the Vikings tonight.

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