The Kevin Sheehan Show - Ron's Return; Cam's Too

Episode Date: November 19, 2021

Kevin solo today with his preview/pick of Washington-Carolina. After last week's 8-0 "Smell Test", 12 more picks today. Other NFL along with Terps-Michigan and Wizards talk too.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. And this is a pick by Kyle Van Hoy. Throw it right to him. And Van Hoy is in for the touchdown. Remember last week when Cam Newton scored a touchdown and he ripped his helmet off and he said,

I'm back. I am back. Well, Bill Belichick could probably do the same thing. he doesn't wear a helmet and I doubt that he would do it. But the New England Patriots are back. They are seven and four. They've won five in a row, and they are guys right now in the thick of the conversation

of teams that could win the AFC championship and go to the Super Bowl. They've done it in a very unique way. More on that win last night over Atlanta, 25 to nothing, in a moment. I am solo today. plenty, obviously, on Carolina, Washington. Keys to a win, a prediction on the game.

Twelve smell test picks today. Trying to follow up on last weekend's perfect eight no mark. I've got 12 picks, six for college, six for the NFL. I'll get to those in the final segment of the show today. A little bit on the Wizards, a little bit on Terps football. They've got a big opportunity tomorrow in College Park against Michigan. And a couple of other things here and there, including, I think, one of the first emails that I've ever gotten from husband and wife. They wrote it together, it would appear.

I will get to that here momentarily. Quickly on the Patriots. The Patriots have won five games in a row. They have outscored those five opponents, 35 to 10, 175 points to 50 over that five game stretch. Over the last three games, they have outscored their opponents, the Panthers, the Browns, and last night, the Falcons, who, by the way, the Falcons have been outscored 68 to 3 in their last two games. The NFL really turns on a dime, doesn't it? Atlanta had beaten New Orleans two weeks ago.

They were 500. They were a playoff contender in the NFC. Not that they're out of it mathematically now, but no Cordarell Patterson last night. They've been without Calvin Ridley, and they got demolished last night. By a team in New England, who in their last three games has outscored their opponents, 94 to 13, and they've held those three opponents, the Panthers, Browns, and Falcons, to six of 33 on third down, and an average of 207 yards. Mack Jones is playing at a high level.

They're running the football. They're not beating themselves. Mack Jones has completed 83.6 percent of his passes in his last two games. A Mac Jones that may have been there for the taking for Washington had they decided that they liked him and decided to trade up. remember, Minnesota picked it 14, and they traded that pick to the Jets. The Jets selected Elijah Vera Tucker, the offensive linemen. Washington, I was told, was interested in Justin Fields and considered moving up for Justin Fields. Ron Rivera told you, has told you, via the Mike Silver story in September, and maybe a couple of other times, that the draft capital required to move up to get a young quarterback was too steep. I think he was talking about, Justin Fields, maybe Trey Lance, not Mac Jones. They probably could have gotten Mac Jones. He was just five spots ahead of them. They had to get in front of New England, and the team five spots ahead of them, Minnesota, was willing to deal the pick. Who knows? It's pretty early on Mac Jones.

Remember, though, the first time we saw him was in the preseason game against Washington, and I think almost all of us said, he kind of looks the part, doesn't he? He looked pretty damn comfortable that night. But it's really a defensive performance here by the New England Patriots over the last five weeks that is just amazing. They're good on defense. They're well-coached on defense. Kyle Van Ney, who you heard take back that Matt Ryan, not Matt Ryan, at that point in the game late last night, and I was asleep for this part. You know, the Falcons ended up playing three quarterbacks in the game. And that interception return was actually, off of the third quarterback who was in the game, Felipe Franks.

Josh Rosen was in the game. Matt Ryan played in the game. Oh man, the Falcons all of a sudden. I like Matt Ryan, though. I don't care. I like Matt Ryan. I don't care where the Falcons end up this year. He's without right now his number one weapon in Calvin Ridley. He's without Cordarelle Patterson, who's been outstanding this year. Kyle Pitts, all they had to do was focus on stopping Kyle pits and they did. New England's defense, though, is lights out right now. It really is, and they are seven and four, and right now on MyBooky, at mybooky.com, mybooky.agy. They have moved into the fifth position in terms of odds to win the AFC championship, and they have closed the gap on Buffalo in the AFC East. They are seven and four. Buffalo is six and three. New England has not yet had

their by week, and Buffalo hasn't played their game this weekend. They play Indyfc. Indianapolis on Sunday. They have two head-to-head meetings in December. The first on December 6th, I think it is a Monday night game in Buffalo, and then they played a day after Christmas in Foxborough. That division is going to come down to those two showdowns. Now, New England gets Tennessee next. The Patriots are so well-coached. They don't beat themselves. They're running the ball with Romandre Stevenson and other, and last night, you know, back in the game last night was They averaged four and a half yards per carry. Jones threw an interception last night, but they won the turnover battle. They won the penalty battle. They won the field position battle.

They won the time of possession battle. They're just well coached and they're doing it old school, right? I mean, Mack Jones is not lighting it up with big numbers, high completion percentage, for sure. And by the way, he is right now neck and neck for the offensive rookie of the year with Jumar Chase. in fact, it wouldn't surprise me if he's taking the lead on that front. 2,540 yards, 14 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and 11 games. He's not going to set any big-time marks, but his completion percentage now for the year is over 70%. He just looks the part two.

Super decisive, super quick release. The Patriots are really good right now. They're really good. The AFC, the NFC, it's a wild year right now. Like right now, who's the number one seed in the AFC? Well, if I had to take a guess, I would say Tennessee. They're 8 and 2, so they're the only team in the AFC with two losses, and Tennessee still plays the Houston Texans twice and Jacksonville on their schedule the rest of the way.

I think they're going to get to 12 wins easily. So I think Tennessee will be the number one seed. But after that, does it mean that they're going to roll through the playoffs? I don't think so. I mean, is Kansas City going to all of a sudden catch fire? Well, it looked that way Sunday night, but will it last? They play Dallas Sunday afternoon 425. Good doubleheader game at Arrowhead.

You know, what's Baltimore going to do? And they're rebound off the loss to Miami. Is Buffalo really what many people think, the best all-around team in the AFC? They're exceptional in defense like New England is, but they've got much better offensive weapons. It's going to be a fascinating AFC playoffs when we get there. Same in the NFC.

I mean, who's the number one seed in the NFL? F. Personally, I think it's going to be Green Bay. I think they're really underrated defensively, and they've got Aaron Rogers. But it wouldn't surprise me if they lose Sunday in Minneapolis against the Vikings, where that point spread now is down to one. MyBooky.agg.mibooki.com. They are presenting sponsor of today's show. If you already have a site, so what. MyBooky's going to double your first deposit. They're giving you free money to bet with. You're going to want over the next week, which is one of the great weeks of the sports calendar, Thanksgiving week,

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The Patriots were impressive last. night and they have been impressive. Seven and four, first team to get to their 11th game of the season, and they have won five in a row with the two losses during their last eight games, being close losses to Tampa and to Dallas in overtime. I want to read an email to you. I got this email from husband and wife, Evelyn and Zach. I don't know where they live, but Evelyn and Zelle. Zach wrote me a nice email where they were very complimentary about me. I'm not going to read that part. But they also got very quickly to what was bothering them.

So I'm going to read this to you from Evelyn and Zach. And when you email me through the website, the Kevin Sheehan Show.com, I appreciate that. And I do read a lot of them. This one was good, though, because it hit a nerve with me. And I will get to that in a moment. But let me read the email. from husband and wife, Evelyn and Zach.

We just don't get why you have given up on Taylor Heineke as a possible franchise quarterback. Why would you? He has started nine games for this team, nine, exclamation point. Is that enough to know for sure? He just outplayed Tom Brady for the second time. Exclamation point, exclamation point, exclamation point, exclamation point. aggressive. No bolds, no caps, but lots of exclamation points. How can't that, Kevin, be a reason for momentary pause?

Rivera seems to like him, his teammates seem to believe in him, he's got the intangibles that franchise quarterbacks need to have. You've admitted that much. The confidence, the leadership, the respect of his teammates, and he wants to be here. another exclamation point. That made me kind of laugh because he really didn't have much of a choice, did he? I mean, a year ago, he was taking classes at ODU. Of course he wants to be here. It's the only opportunity that was given to him.

They continued, that alone should be taken into consideration, the fact that he wants to be here. He likes it here. Please give this time. We know what Kyle Allen is. We know who Ryan Fitzpatrick has been. The young quarterbacks in the draft don't seem to excite the analysts. As you've said about Maryland's basketball coach, be careful what you wish for. I think that was in reference to the young quarterbacks in the draft.

And yes, I've had a lot of conversations just in the last two days with a lot of my Maryland basketball friends about you know who, Mark Turgeon. And I always say, and I said in the offseason, be careful what you wish for because he's a good coach. He may not be the elite coach that all of you want, but he's a good coach. and you could do a hell of a lot worse. Anyway, I digress on that. Thank you for the email. And again, you can send me emails through the website, the Kevin Sheehan Show.com.

And I do read a lot of them, and as you know, I respond to some of them occasionally. And you can tweet me as well at Kevin Sheen, D.C. So a couple of things. Number one, before I get to the part that kind of irked me. Number one, he does have the intangibles. Ron is really, you know, he's done. doubled down on that, you know, not just double down, really. He continues to emphasize the

intangibles. I have Ron Rivera on my show every Friday morning on 980. I record it on Thursdays, and I asked him about those intangibles because he had, you know, made another comment. Remember Tommy and I were talking about it this week, that sort of indicates that they just like Taylor Heineke. They like what he brings to the table in terms of intangibles. He has the respect of the locker room. They like him. They believe in him. There's a lot to be said for that. There's a lot to be said for that. there is. I see those things, too. I'm not oblivious to those things.

I think he's a high-level athlete. You know what I think of him physically as a quarterback. I think his number one attribute is his athleticism and his not just speed, quickness, et cetera. It's his vision as an athlete. It's his escapability. It's his ability to play off-schedule and make plays. I love that about him.

And then you add the intangibles in there. And, you know, you have a guy that, as I've said, I believe should be a quarterback in the NFL. I just think it should be more as a backup. I mean, if you want to go the low-end starter route, okay, I don't know that he's that. But that's not the goal anyway. The goal is a franchise quarterback. I don't see that. By the way, nine games, he has started nine games, exclamation point, exclamation point.

Is that enough to know for sure? Well, no, it's not a big enough sample. size. I understand that. But, you know, I've always been, I've always told you exactly how I feel in the moment. And with him, it was not, you know, an early declaration. That came just two weeks ago, I think, or three weeks ago. I wanted to see more. Now, I leaned in the direction of not believing that he was the answer as a franchise quarterback. And then after six games, six starts this year, five starts or whatever it was, it kind of hit me in watching him. He's just, he doesn't have, you know, what I would call, you know, franchise quarterback arm strength. I think that's less important than,

you know, franchise quarterback accuracy and anticipation and decision making. I think that's more important. I think you see that as very inconsistent. I remember early in the year, I said to you, I go, look, his accuracy is inconsistent. And some of you were like, look at his completion percentage. I'm like, okay, but still look at where the balls are. Like, they're high. They float a lot. And we've seen that throughout the year. I mean, even Ron Rivera's admitted that his accuracy, it can be inconsistent. And Scott Turner's admitted that as well. That's not the part that irks me. I mean, I know where I am. I know my position on Taylor Heineke. I was intrigued. I wanted to see him, you know, potentially have a shot, not necessarily to start, but to be on the team. And he

He's more than proven that to me he is at the worst, at the worst, like a mid-level backup, if not a high-level backup, the kind of guy that I think you'd want to have on your team as a backup. And if you want to stretch that out to, well, you know, when teams, you know, are really void of any quarterbacks, he could be a starter for some of those teams. Okay. But it's not what you're looking for. But here's the part that made me bring this email to the show today. When Evelyn and Zach say he just outplayed Tom Brady for the second time, exclamation point, exclamation point, exclamation point, how can't that be reason for a momentary pause?

Who gives a shit that he outplayed Tom Brady? First of all, he didn't outplay Tom Brady in the playoff game. They both played exceptionally well. Brady threw for 381 yards on a team that rolled to 507 total yards and 31 points in a win. He had a receiver and Chris Godwin that dropped five balls. He may have thrown for 480 had Godwin not had butterfingers in that game. He didn't outplay Tom Brady in the playoff game. He played really well and so did Brady.

He did outplay Brady on Sunday, though. His team outplayed the Buccaneers, and he had a better game than Tom Brady had. But so what? That is just such a worthless... I don't want to use lazy as a description. I hate that term lazy argument, because I don't think anybody's intending to be lazy.

I think we're all passionate about this, and sometimes you don't maybe do some research before you answer something, whatever. But who cares that he outplayed Tom Brady in one game? You made me go back and do some digging, and it didn't take me long, just for this franchise to find the following. Jason Campbell outplayed Drew Breeze in week two of 2008. Totally outplayed Drew Breeze. Drew Breeze, a Hall of Fame quarterback.

Jason Campbell, not a Hall of Fame quarterback. Jason Campbell, not a franchise quarterback. Jason Campbell, really and truly, not an NFL starting quarterback, even though he started a lot of games for multiple teams, but not exactly what you'd be looking for if you wanted to develop, you know, an era of sustained winning with high-level quarterback play. Jason Campbell totally outplayed Drew Brees on a Sunday afternoon in 2008. Heath Schuller back in 1995 outplayed Troy Aitman, future Hall of Famer.

Hall of Famer now, but at the time, future Hall of Famer. Washington is a 17.5 point underdog went to Texas Stadium, and Heath Schuller, who sucked, outplayed Troy Aitman. Todd Collins outplayed Eli Manning one night when he was starting in Washington, and Patrick Ramsey outplayed a younger version of Tom Brady in 2000. and two in a 20 to 17 win at FedEx Field. David Carr outplayed Peyton Manning one day. So did Mark Sanchez, and David Garrard did it like three times.

Now, out of all the quarterbacks that I mentioned, David Garrard was probably the best. He actually had a legitimate career and was, you know, certainly a mid-to-low-tier NFL starter. The point is that it just doesn't matter out playing a quarterback in one game. Come on. Doesn't mean shit. Okay? We're sitting here and your points are good ones about the smaller sample size and not being, you know, so sure at this point.

Look, I just, I'm telling you how I feel. I don't think he's the answer as a franchise quarterback. And outplaying Tom Brady didn't change my mind at all. I think he has a spot in the NFL, and that's saying a lot. I think he'll be a backup. I hope he's a backup here next year. I hope they go out and find their franchise quarterback in the offseason. I don't know what path they're going to take, but I hope they're continuing to be aggressive or they get aggressive, but they continue to realize that they still have to find the answer on that. That's another thing, by the way, Ron Rivera spoke to today. And again, you can listen to that interview on the Odyssey app or the team 980.com. Rivera was good. I recorded it yesterday. There were a lot of things. I actually brought up to him. I said, do you know what the criticism of you in Carolina is? It's that you only had three winning seasons and nine.

And he responded to that. He responded to Chase Young and Montez Sweat being out and why the defense played better was a coincidental, excuse me. And then the Taylor Heineke stuff. It's irrelevant that he outplayed Tom Brady last week. Completely irrelevant. And you're not the first person to mention that to me, and you won't be the last. How much did we hear during the offseason?

He outplayed Tom Brady. They almost beat the Buccaneers in the postseason, the team that went on to win the Super Bowl. What happened Sunday was the defense stepped up and played its best game of the year. And simultaneously, the offense played well, and Taylor Heineke played well. And that's why they finally won a game

after losing four in a row. When we come back, my keys to a win over Carolina and a prediction right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Sunday's game is winnable in Charlotte against the Panthers. There are three and a half point underdogs of Washington is. It's not a should-win game, but it is a could-win game. For Carolina, they may think it's a should-win game,

but I don't think it's a should-win game for them either. I think it's a could-win game for them. They feel probably better about it. They're five-and-five. They're right now the last wild-card team in the NFC. They're playing at home, which in what, should be an amped up atmosphere because of the return of Cam Newton. And by the way, Ron Rivera coming back to coach for the first time at Carolina with an opposing team.

They are expecting one of the largest crowds of the year, perhaps a sellout in Carolina for this game. They may think it's a should win game, but I think it's a could win game for both of them. I think this is kind of a coin flip, kind of a game. because in part, because there's a lot of mystery around this game. The mystery, of course, is Cam Newton and what we're going to see from Cam Newton on Sunday. Are we going to see Cam Newton vintage with Christian McCaffrey healthy? Or are we going to see the Cam Newton that we've seen for the last couple of years? If we see that Cam Newton, and even if it's a combination of Cam Newton and PJ Walker,

which Jack Del Rio thinks we're going to get, a combination of both of them, because of the limited amount of time that Cam's had to pick up on the playbook. If we get the Cam Newton that we've seen in the last couple of years, Washington's got a really good chance. That's my gut is that we're going to get the Cam of the last couple of years. I'd be really surprised if we got like healthy 2015 Cam Newton. I just really would be surprised if we get vintage Cam and McCaffrey and DJ Moore. And, you know, the Panthers all of a sudden becoming a really good offensive team overnight.

They're not a good offensive team. They are a very good defensive team. Very good. Third overall DVOA metric on football outsiders. I think there's tremendous mystery surrounding this game. And it's what's Cam Newton going to be like? What's their quarterback situation going to be like? Will it lift an offense that's really struggled or will it just be a continuation of what

it's been offensively? I know that they erupted last week for really their best offensive day of the year in Arizona in a game that obviously the Panthers, the Cardinals, excuse me, were without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins and Chase Edmonds like they were the week before when they destroyed the 49ers. And Carolina was on the right side of everything last week. You know, they were on the right side of the field position battle and they got two turnovers and they got lots of stops on third downs. They made Colt McCoy look very average and pedagogues. They made Colt, compared to what he had looked like the week before.

But their offense busted out a little bit last week against the Cardinals, but their offense hasn't been very good. So if Cam Newton doesn't really elevate it, this is a team that's going to struggle even against Washington's defense, and we think it's improving, and it played its best game of the year last week. But it's going to be a team that I think Washington can hold under 20 points. That's the mystery.

What do you get with Cam? And so that makes it kind of hard to project and predict. But I'm going to assume that Cam Newton isn't vintage Cam. So that leads me to keys to a win over Carolina. The number one key to beating Carolina is stopping the run and stopping Christian McCaffrey, or at least slowing him down. When Christian McCaffrey plays for Carolina, they are productive offensively, and they win games. They're four and one with him in the starting lineup.

They have only won one game without him this year. Christian McCaffrey is a massive star difference maker in the league. They have to slow down Christian McCaffrey. Stopping the run is everything. I expect lots of five-man front Sunday. Trying to make Carolina one-dimensional and forcing them to throw the football, asking them, begging them to throw the football to see if Cam's got it. Now the quarterbacks are going to be part of the run game too,

and Christian McCaffrey is going to be back there in the wildcat on occasion. But the number one key to this game is stopping the run and stopping specifically Christian McCaffrey. Again, I think we'll see, like we did last week again, some five-man front. Key number two is Washington really needs to, in matchups against Hassan Reddick, Brian Burns, Shaq Thompson, they have got to protect the quarterback in this game. This is a big key to this game. Carolina is top three in the NFL in Sacks. They are top five in blitz percentage.

They are good defensively. This is a team that ranks third DVOA football outsider's metric. They have good players. They're well coached. They've got very good team speed. I think that the key offensively is to block up their pressure. They're going to come on average 30 to 35% of the time. That ranks, I think, in the top five, top six in the NFL and Blitz percentage.

In terms of sacks, they've got 27 on this season. That is tied for third in the NFL. Burns and Reddick and Thompson are real problems. not to mention that Derek Brown inside for Carolina is a tough matchup as well. Now, the good news is Washington's offensive line has really been a pleasant surprise. Their backs have stepped up and really helped out in pass pro too. I thought that Tampa would be a problem for Washington offensively. I certainly thought that Denver and Green Bay were potential problems for Washington offensively,

and they proved against three good defensive teams in a row that they could move the football. that is encouraging. Taylor Heineke threw some interceptable balls last week, three of them. And you can't do that in this game. I expect this game to be a low-scoring kind of game. You know, a 16, 13, 17, 14 kind of game, 19, 16, 20 to 17, you know, where a couple of big plays or big mistakes are going to make the difference. Carolina's good defensively. Washington's got to block up their pressure. Obviously, what would be great is if Washington could run the football a little bit against Carolina, you know, and keep balanced like they did last week against Tampa.

I think that that was a huge part of last week's game. Being able to run the football and stay balanced was huge for them. Carolina's past defense is better than their rush defense. but they're not easy to do anything against defensively. Washington's got to protect the football. They've got to protect Taylor Heineke. They've got to stay balanced. They've got to keep from making the mistakes that Carolina will force you into.

Carolina turned Mack Jones into two turnovers in a game that the Patriots won. But the Patriots won with the help of their defense. JC Jackson had a big interception return in that game. That game was actually pretty competitive, but it was mistakes by. Carolina in particular that cost them. But the point is that they turned over New England. That's key number two. Block up Burns, block up Reddick, Thompson.

Don't let Derek Brown wreak havoc and mess the game up from the interior. And stay balanced to keep them honest. Lastly, because I do think this is going to be a low-scoring, you know, one play could change the game kind of game. Washington can't be the team that makes the mistake. And, you know, the mistake could be in the special teams. Their kickers, Zane Gonzalez, 90.5% on field goals this year. 90.5%. He's only missed one P.A.T. They've got a good kicking situation right now in Carolina. Washington at least has a professional kicker right now. That's huge in Sly. Sly made all three kicks last week. It could come down to a kick. Sly

kicking against his former team on a field that he's familiar with. And one of the hottest kickers in the league in Zane Gonzalez. His only two misses are from 50 plus. He is perfect 16 for 16 from inside 50 this year. There's going to be a play or two in this game that's, I think, going to make the difference. I'd be surprised if this is a one-sided game either way. It would be great if it were one-sided in Washington's favor because Cam Newton's really not ready. and he's not very good, and they go to PJ Walker,

and Washington's defense is on the rise a little bit. It's weird to say that without Chase Young and Montes sweat. But I think, you know, this game's going to come down to a play or two, and Washington's got to pounce on a ball if it comes loose when they're on defense. If there's a deflected ball up into the air, they've got to catch it. And on offense, if Gibson coughs won up. somehow, you know, Larson's got to fall on it. Larson's the center.

My prediction for the game is Carolina, 18, Washington, 17. I don't think I've ever predicted that score. 17 to 12 late, they score late, they go for two, they miss it. Washington doesn't have enough time to get into field goal range to try to win it. 18, 17, Carolina. I see it as an under game. The total is 43. Would I bet it?

What would I bet? My 12 smell test picks right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Kevin looks where the John Q Public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. Eight and no last week, perfection with the smell test. Seven underdogs, six of them won outright. But that was last week, this is this week. I needed last week, but I need to continue it this week because I am still for the season,

and four games under 500. Let's start with tomorrow. Six picks on the college board. We will start with UAB plus four and a half at UTSA. UTSA. UTSA stands for the University of Texas, San Antonio. They're undefeated. They're ranked 15th in America in the AP.

They're ranked 22nd in the college football playoff rankings. They should be laying seven. They're only laying four and a half. The road runners are in trouble tomorrow against the Blazers. Give me UAB plus the four and a half. TCU's laying three touchdowns, 21 against Kansas. Kansas won their first road game in the Big 12 in years, beating Texas last week in Austin in overtime, 57 to 56.

Things are not going well for Steve Sarkesian in year one in Austin. That is for sure. The public all of a sudden likes the Jayhawks. They do, because remember the Jayhawks almost beat Oklahoma a month ago. TCU lost 6317 last week to. Oklahoma State. I'll take TCU and lay the 21. Troy plus 10 against Appalachian State. That line is light. The public likes Appalachian State. Take Troy plus the 10. I've been on Arizona State, I think twice this year and one. They're laying three at Oregon State. That line should be

probably closer to pick them. The public's playing Oregon State. I'll take Arizona State and laid the three. And then two college picks that really are smell test definition picks. Remember a couple of weeks ago I told you Purdue plus the three against Michigan State after Michigan State had beaten Michigan and Purdue had been blown out? I'm like, this is the definition of a smell test pick. People look at that line and think they made a mistake. Well, they didn't. And Purdue won that game easily. Well, there are two of them that fit that criteria in college football this week.

Baylor beat Oklahoma last week outright as a five and a half point dog. This week against unranked Kansas State, they're a one. point underdog after beating Oklahoma. Give me K-State and lay the point. And then Utah is favored by three over the number three team in America, Oregon, in the college football playoff rankings. This is a massive game with massive playoff implications. I called this, by the way.

I forget if I said this on the podcast or radio show. I called before the line came out, I said Utah is going to be favored when they play Oregon at home in the third week of November. I think I said this like two weeks ago. Utah's good. They're laying three. The odds makers recognize it. The public doesn't.

They're all over Oregon. Lay the three and take Utah. There are the six college picks, UAB plus four and a half, TCU minus 21, Troy plus 10, Arizona State minus three, K-state minus one in Utah minus three. Let's go to NFL football on Sunday.

I'm five and oh, I think, on the smell test with the Minnesota Vikings. And I like them again. They're getting a point now. That number is down to one. I had Minnesota in week two against Arizona. I had them, I think, in week three against Seattle. I know I had them against Carolina,

the Ravens, and the Chargers. I'm either 4-0 with Minnesota or 5-0. I can't remember if I gave them out against Seattle or not. Green Bay is only a point. There's sharp money on Minnesota. Minnesota is the only team in the league that's led in every single game they've played by seven or more points. Their four and five is so misleading. With that said, they are capable.

Like in a win over Detroit, they didn't play well. They should have beaten Dallas with Cooper Rush, and they didn't get that done. So they're capable of laying an egg. But the public's on Green Bay. I've been good on Minnesota so far this year in the smell test. I've got them again plus the one on Sunday in a big game in the NFC. The Bears are only getting four and a half against the Ravens at Soldier Field. I like the Bears plus four and a half.

The Jags are kind of a smell test definition pick as well. San Francisco looking so good on Monday night, now everybody thinking the 49ers are back into this thing and they're going to be a playoff team and here comes Kyle, here comes that defense. Jimmy G played great. Jacksonville, you know, had the upset two weeks ago, lost last week in a game at Indy. I think Jacksonville's playing better.

That lines at six and a half, buy it to seven, take the Jags plus the seven. The Jets are going to start Joe Flacco Sunday. They're getting three and a half against the dolphins. The last time we saw them, they destroyed the Ravens. I like the Jets plus the three and a half. The biggest anti-public play of the weekend is Houston plus 10 and a half against the Titans. I'll take the Texans plus 10 and a half. And the Browns are laying 11 on Sunday against Detroit.

I hate laying big favorites, especially in the NFL. But God, Cleveland, I mean, what's going on with the Cleveland Browns? If Nick Chubb plays, they're good. If he doesn't, they stink. They lost to the Patriots last week 45 to 7. They gave up 47 to the Chargers. They give up 37 to the Cardinals. I don't know.

I think this is a big game for Cleveland. They're at home. Detroit had the tie. last week against Pittsburgh. The public actually likes the Lions this week because it's a lot of points and the Browns haven't looked good and Detroit's played well last week. I'll take the Browns and lay the 11 and hope that Nick Chubb is back in the lineup. There you go. That is the smell test for the week. again, UAB, TCU, Troy, Arizona State, K-State, and Utah. And then on Sunday, the Vikings, Bears, Jags, Jets, Texans, and Browns.

Two other things before the end of the show, number one, the Wizards lost last night to a really good Miami team. Bradley Beale said after the game, we can't turn the ball over 17 times and win. He's right. This is the biggest problem I think they have. I think they have other issues too, but they're a good team. They're an improved team. They're very much an improved defensive team, as we know. They had 17 turnovers last night while Miami only had six, and Beale had six of them.

It's my biggest single issue I have with Beal. Six turnovers, four of them didn't have to happen. They didn't have Dinwiddie last night. They get another shot at Miami tomorrow night, and then they get a shot on Monday night against Charlotte at home. The two losses in a road, is Charlotte and Miami on the road? They get those two teams in their next two home games. And then they go on the road for a ton of road games between now and December 23rd. They're 10 and 5.

Last night they were an underdog. They were an underdog at Charlotte, too. So these aren't bad losses. They haven't had one of those terrible losses that when they were okay with John and Brad a few years ago, like they would lose to some terrible teams at home, neither loss is a bad loss, but they can't turn the ball over 17 times and beat a good team. An Eastern Conference Championship type of team in Miami. Last thing on the show.

Maryland's got two opportunities to become bowl eligible. Tomorrow at home against Michigan, they're 15-point underdogs, cold day in college park, and then next week against Rutgers. I think it's big for Loxley to get one of these wins. I do. I like Mike a lot. I think he really recruits well. Maryland has been an undisciplined team at times.

They have really, really been awful when it comes to penalties. I mean, last week, that game at Michigan State, was actually a competitive game, even though the score didn't indicate it. Maryland moved the football. They had nearly 450 yards of offense, but they had 13 penalties. 13. They were getting flagged at halftime. They've got to become a more disciplined team under Mike Loxley.

Penalties have been an issue since he got here. They continue to be an issue. and until they get to the point where they're not beating themselves, they may have a chance to win some games against better teams. You know, I don't know that Michigan State is so much better. Ohio State is. I think Michigan is, and I think Michigan will beat them handily tomorrow. I've thought that Michigan State's been a bit overrated all year long.

I think they're going to lose to Ohio State tomorrow and then essentially be out of it. But Maryland's got to find a way to keep some momentum or initiate. some momentum, really, with a bowl bid, which means they have to win tomorrow or they have to win next week against Rutgers. Rutgers actually is in the same position as Maryland. They have to win one more of their final two. It very likely could come down to Rutgers versus Maryland next week at Rutgers for a Big Ten bowl spot. Rutgers is five and five as well. Rutgers plays at Penn State tomorrow. So more likely than not, Maryland's going to be five and six. Rutgers is going to be five and six next week with a bowl bid on the line.

A lot of you would say, who cares about a bowl bid? Will they care? And it shows progress. A 500 record, a bowl game against somebody outside of the Big Ten East would be nice. Anyway, go Terps. I'm hoping that they can get it done. By the way, officially Carolina has just named Cam Newton its starting quarterback for Sunday against the Washington football team.

Back on Monday with a recap of the game and a recap of the football weekend. Enjoy it.