The Kevin Sheehan Show - Taylor, Terps, & Thom's SNF Pick

Episode Date: December 15, 2022

Kevin and Thom today started with an early "Smell Test" pick from Kevin on tonight's San Francisco/Seattle game. They talked a ton of Taylor Heincke, NFL league meeting info on Snyder sale, Maryland-UCLA, and Thom made his Washington/NYG pick.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show. Here's Kevin. Tommy's here. I am here. Tommy, I'm going to start the show with an early smell test pick.

I'm kind of excited about the pick tonight, which I will get to in a moment because the pick and the show today is brought to you by, my good friends, at MyBooky. Go to MyBooky.orgie. use my promo code Kevin DC and they will match your first deposit dollar for dollar all the way up to a thousand bucks. They're going to give you free money into your account, doubling your first initial deposit. You have to use my promo code, Kevin DC. I've gotten a few things back from my bookie from some of you who don't realize you have to clear what's in the promo code and write

Kevin DC and then they'll double your first deposit. By the way, I was looking ahead to next week's Washington 49ers point spread. It's the look ahead line. You can bet it at my bookie right now. San Francisco is a six and a half point favorite Christmas Eve afternoon at home against the commanders a week from Saturday. I think I guessed the other day it would be seven, somewhere around seven, maybe a little bit higher. Six and a half, I think that's a good sign. You know, they think Washington's going to be a competitive team in that game. San Francisco, you know, is on a roll. But anyway, go to my bookie.ag.

Use my promo code, Kevin D.C. You'll get all of this week's lines. Right now, Washington, a four and a half point favorite still at MyBooky over the giants on Sunday night football. The total in that game is 40 and a half. So, Tommy, my smell test pick for tonight's big-time matchup on Thursday night football between the 49ers and the Seahawks is Seattle plus three. All right. And if I need to explain why at this point that Seattle is a smell test pick, then this is either your first time listening or you just don't get it and you never will. all right. The 49ers have won six games in a row. Seattle has lost four of its last five,

and the game they won, they had to come from behind to win against the Rams. The line feels like it should be San Francisco by like 100, but definitely it feels like it should be San Francisco by at least a touchdown, and it's San Francisco minus three. And here's the other part of it too, because I love these games, when the line has actually come down from three and a half to three. So that is part an indication that there is some sharp money on Seattle, which I always like to know. But it's also interesting that with literally the public lined up on San Francisco since this line came out, the bookmakers are saying,

eh, we'll give you more incentive to bet San Francisco. How about three? How does minus three sound? Does it sound better than three in the hook? Well, of course it does. The Niners are one of the biggest plays of the public weekend of the public betting weekend so far. It may not be the biggest. Tune in tomorrow to find out what the biggest is. Look, the bottom line is the boys on the other side of the window tonight. Don't mind taking more and more of your bets on the 49ers. So if you don't have the stones to bet Seattle, and I get it, just do me a favor, okay?

Because, so Tommy, last week I gave out some stinkers of teams. I gave out Jacksonville, and Jacksonville had lost the previous week, and I had them against Detroit. They had lost 40 to 14. I gave out Carolina. That was the game I loved all week long. I loved the Panthers last week from the jump. So I got this from Brad. Brad, this was from Sunday morning.

Brad suggested that if he loses on Jacksonville, he will hunt me down and beat me with his stick. Of course, you know, thank you, Brad, with the, you know, laughing emojis after. I'm assuming that you were kidding. Jacksonville, by the way, won the game out right over Tennessee. It was never really close. And then Landon, Landon said that Carolina, had no chance to cover against Seattle. And why won't I focus more on the matchup and the numbers and less on bookmaker needs?

Landon, I don't know what to tell you. Boy, that's so naive. Well, it's so, it's so, you know, I don't you. I got a couple of formulas. I got some analytics. I got some numbers here. Yes, it is. You know?

Yes, it is. And that's fine. That's fine. Look, for those of you that feel the same way about Seattle tonight, don't play them. Don't play them. I mean, I've said this before in the past. At the very least, at least let me talk you out of playing San Francisco. You don't have to play Seattle. I understand that that is not going to sit well as the game gets ready to kick off. But just don't play the Niners because you're the mark. And just by the way, just because the game is being played, and it's on TV, you can sit it out. You know, this used to be a thing.

Look, I've been... Listen to you. I know. I know. True. True. Okay. Guilty.

I can remember those Monday nights and Thursday nights and Sunday nights. And it's like, do I even like a side or does it even really matter? I got to have something on the game. And look, I acknowledge the smell test or, you know, going sort of with this contrarian view is far from a guarantee. I understand that. Okay. Of course it isn't going to be a guarantee and you can cash the winnings before you receive them. But I will mention that the smell test has now won 10 out of the last 12 weeks. So that's 10 weeks out of the last 12. I've produced a winning record and one of those two weeks that I didn't, it was a 500 week. But,

Anyway, I promise you that if San Francisco covers tonight, the bookmakers will take a beating because they are, they're really fine taking all of the 49er action tonight. Like if the 49ers cover, you know, it's one of those days or nights where the squares win. You know, the squares do win some of them. They do. They have to, or they'd never, eventually they'd be tapped out and they wouldn't keep coming back. But if you bet San Francisco tonight, you are the square. So Seattle plus the three tonight to kick off the weekend. By the way, Landon's thing sort of touched a nerve with me

because it is true that there are many times where I take a team and I don't like the matchup at all. Like my football analysis is like, oh God, I am on a dreadful team tonight. But last week, Carolina, I liked the matchup, and I talked about that. I thought Carolina was an excellent defensive team, and I thought they were getting better. And by the way, they are really mirroring with Steve Wilkes as their interim coach what Washington's doing. They are playing great defense. They are running the football.

They are asking Sam Darnold to do very little. Just don't ruin it for them. And they are literally Sunday night, if they do. beat Pittsburgh and Tampa loses to Cincinnati. Both of those things are likely. Caroline is going to be in first place in the NFC South. And I, last week, that was, I called that out on Tuesday or Wednesday last week. I saw that line and I loved it and I loved the matchup. Now, tonight, I don't love the matchup. It's a total system play, a total system play. I don't feel good about the Seahawks as a team right now.

feel very good about the 49ers. But the line just stinks. I mean, come on. I mean, San Francisco's won six in a row, and none of the games have been close, and they're laying three. Tommy, we want ratings and reviews. Go ahead. Did you have something to say about the smell test? Oh, yeah, I had a question for you about your smell test situation. Yes. In recent memory, have you ever gone against your philosophy and say, I just can't do it? I can't bring myself to do it. Have you ever done that recently? Yes. I have done, we call that among my small group of friends that wager this way.

We just call that the reverse, the reverse smell test. Every once in a while, there's a game that reeks so bad that even the squares have figured it out. And it's like, wait a minute, are they trying to get me to do this? maybe I shouldn't. And so every once in a while, it almost feels like they're trying to get even the dopes to question what they're doing. And so every once in a while, I've done that. Scott has always referred to it with me as what he refers to as the nini play.

And I'll tell you why. Like many years ago, it's a long time ago now. There was a college basketball game. It was South Carolina, and I believe it was South Carolina in Alabama. And I, Alabama, South Carolina looked, Alabama looked like the right play. I think it was that. Yeah, it was Alabama that looked like the right play. And so I told them before the game, uh-uh, this feels too obvious the way we would.

It's like they figured us out now. I'm going to go the other way. I'm going to go with the reverse trap theory. and I'm going to bet South Carolina and he goes, and he just said to me, he goes, you're a nanny. Why would you do that? Swear to God.

He'll tell this story as well, and we remember it in a very laughing way. So South Carolina at halftime of this game, Tommy, and I think they were getting like, they were giving like three. And it looked like Alabama was the contrarian side, but I decided to go opposite. So I had South Carolina.

Lang 3. They were down at halftime, 39 to 18. And so he just called me, he was texting me. He's like, you're a ninnie, you're a fool. How did I, how did I, you sucker me into this? Because he went with me. South Carolina came back and won the game by 10 in the second half. Oh my God. And so forever, I've said, don't, don't even say it. Don't refer to me as that. You know what my track record is on this. I don't, we both have done it occasionally. A couple of friends, Tim Murray, you know, and I talk about this stuff. Steve Sands and Tim Murray and I are on a constant group text on all of these games that just reek a little bit.

And every once in a while I'll be like, man, this might be too obvious. We might have to go the other way. So yes, but very, very rarely to answer your question. It's very rare. And there's no rhyme or reason to those picks, are there? No, those ones are really just gut. It's like, man, it almost seems like they're trying to, they're trying to sucker the sucker into it.

By the way, none of this is really true. Like, you know, ultimately they are, now, there's no doubt that there are games like tonight where it's very obvious that they have no problem needing a side. Like, when I say that, you know, there are a lot of people, people that will say she and from what I understand of sports books the goal of any bookie any sports book is to get equal action and just collect the vig you know collect the 10 to whatever percent and it's a profit on every game but that's not what happens because you know and then they'll move the number enough to incent enough action to even out their books like the obvious goal business

wise of a bookmaker would be on a specific game you know I got 10. $10,000 on this side. I've got $10,000 on the other side, and I'm going to collect $1,000 in profit, you know, for my 10% take. But it just never works out that way because you sometimes get a lot of heavily weighted action. And it's those games where if you can identify that they don't mind the heavy action one way over the other. So in essence, they become a gambler in some ways, that's where you have to just ride with them. And, you know, a casino, a sports book makes a lot of its profits, not from straight bets, but from all of the prop bet and all, you know, teasers, I've mentioned this many times before, teasers, parles, that's all profit margin, heavy profit

margin. Now, do they have bad weekends? Of course they do. You know, you read about them. Put it this way. It's so rare that they get pounded that usually it's a news story, right? Like when Vegas has a terrible weekend and the public wins big, it's usually an ESPN.com story about how

they got pounded. But anyway, I do like, I don't love the matchup tonight, but man, God, everybody that I've talked to that is, you know, kind of a barometer for square thinks the Niners are a lock tonight.

and Seattle has sucked recently. Maybe it's Brock Purdy, you know, on national TV, short week to prepare, tough, tough environment at Seattle. The Seahawks desperately need the game. You know, there's a lot that may be going into it, but Seattle's not a good defensive team. They're not.

And man, San Francisco can really run the ball. Look, I'm going to talk myself out of it before the end of the show. No, I like Seattle. We want ratings and reviews. from all of you, wherever you can do it, especially on Apple and Spotify. I read this review right before Tommy and I started to record the podcast, and I thought it would be a good way to start this show. And yes, I will comment on the Maryland-U-CLA game in the next segment of the show.

But this review came from Evan. This is, in capital letters, the DC Sports Podcast, and you can count several spots. before you get to number two. And then he wrote in parentheses, nod to Coach Thompson. You've been listening very carefully, Evan. Yeah, Coach Thompson used to say it's one of my favorite things

is he would discuss Elgin Baylor. He would say Elgin Baylor is the greatest high school basketball player to ever come out of the D.C. area. And you've got to count five spots to get to whomever number two is. So Evan continues. I've been listening to Kevin and Tom since the days of the day's, the sports fix. I never miss the podcast. I love Cooley's Insight and the chemistry he has with Kevin also, but Tuesdays and Thursdays are must listen. One question for both of you. Why do you guys

and others seem so hesitant to call it out? Taylor Heineke has to play much better or this team isn't going anywhere. I'm not sure why this guy gets so much leeway. I hope you guys read this and discuss. Love the show. Thanks. Well, Evan, first of all, we appreciate the review and the five-star rating. That was very nice of you. So I don't think we hesitate.

I don't think I hesitate to call out Taylor Heineke. No, you don't hesitate. Yeah. If anything, you err on the other side. Yeah, I mean, I, here's the thing, though, because I think it brings up a, you know, you seem to think that there are real, I don't know, I think it's. A real resentment. A lot of resentment out there. I don't, I don't really, I honestly don't hear the resentment because I think most people actually like the kid, you know,

know, and like the person and actually like a lot about him. I put myself kind of into that category. I just don't think he's a very good quarterback. Now, I do sense what you have sensed before, which is the people that have, you know, it's the same people, and this was me for sure, that got sick of the pro Carson Wentz trade people who told you to stand down, that you don't know what you're talking about. It's the other teams that fucked up, the Eagles and the Colts, Washington's going to resurrect his career.

You don't know what you're talking about. Either get on board or get out. There was a lot of that with Carson Wentz. You don't hear from those people anymore, by the way. You don't hear from them at all. And I do think that there are people with Taylor that go overboard. I mean, you know, there are several that call into the radio show. One in particular, Sabah, who calls in.

And, you know, they are clearly dedicated and have, a very strong opinion. And I think because I think some of those people definitely push back on this is the same kind of thing they tried to tell us with Carson Wentz. Well, it's a little bit different because we've got a big sample size now of Taylor Heineke. I mean, we've got, you know, what do we have now? 23 games as a starter, something like that. Seven, well, seven this year, 15 last year, 22 games, 23 if you count the playoff game. But I do think, I do think that Evan has, I don't think, I don't know where he's coming from because I do think people do call Taylor Hineke out. But I do think this.

Go ahead. Go ahead. No, you go ahead. No, I was going to say, I mean, I think this is way off base. I think I've never seen a fan base, a segment of the fan base, hey, they're winning quarterback. Like this fan base does Taylor Hineke. I don't see that at all. I see a lot of it. And a part of it is, you know, they all think they're football GMs, and they all re-pro football focus and football outsiders, and are all sitting at home with their slide rules and their protractors

and do it all the bad. And they all think they're geniuses, and they watch this guy, and they can't enjoy the moment because they're caught up in the process. You know, they can't enjoy the result because the process is important to them, because they think they're part of the process, because they think they know the process. So there's a lot of that. There's a lot of that in all sports now. There's a lot of that in baseball. There's a lot of that in football.

There's a lot. There's a segment of the fan base out there that are convinced they understand the process of how to win in football. and what they see Taylor Heineke doing isn't part of that process, except the result is winning. I don't feel the same way. Let me ask you this. Do you think that Taylor Heineke is as polarizing as Kirk Cousins was? No, no, no.

That was different. Let's look. The whole Kirk Cousin thing was ugly. You had some racial overtones to it. because of Robert Griffin the 3rd. Right. That never left. Right.

But it was more than that. The people that didn't think he were, there were people that just couldn't stand him because they were convinced that they were right that he was a backup quarterback and that he could not be a starting quarterback in the NFL. There was part of it, but I think the main focus

was embedded in the RG3. factor and the fact that, you know, he took RG3's job, and people thought so that as some kind of injustice somehow. No, that's different. I don't think that that was the case for the last couple of years, though. I mean, RG3 was gone. He was gone for his last year, or last two years, right? Last two years. Yes. And it was still a red hot topic. For some people, I don't think that's ever left. You know that. There's a second of the population.

I think the team screwed RG3. Yes, but I don't. And that Kirk Cousins was part of that screwing. But I don't think that that, I think the majority of people that were discussing, or the number one reason that Kirk Cousins was a polarizing quarterback in this town was Kirk Cousins the quarterback, not Kirk Cousins versus RG3. and the racial context to that. I'm not suggesting that you're wrong that some people didn't put it in that context

and didn't believe that. But I think the majority of people that discussed Kirk Cousins, it was about Kirk Cousins, the football player. I don't sense anywhere near the intensity of conversation with Taylor Heineke that we had here with Kirk Cousins. There's always a quarterback conversation in every town that doesn't have. Yeah, I know that. But.

And this is what I tried to, I tried to explain to some bozo on Twitter ones, who says, I can't stand, you know, all the discussion about Taylor Heineke. Like, everything's about Taylor Heineke and nothing about, you know, the great weapons he has around him, the great running backs, the wide receivers. And I pointed out to this guy, in every town, the quarterback is to focus. Of course. Of the discussion. Well, that was your column.

That was your column. That was your column. Yeah. Yeah. That's always the way it is. And I just take that, look, Kirk Cousins, the history leading up to the Kirk Cousins' hate is much different. That Taylor Hineke was dropped in our lap, so to speak. There was no Taylor Hineke discussion background.

Most people didn't even know he was on the team until he started the Tampa playoff game. So there was not the history from Kirk Cousins. I mean, you know, if you could, if you knew Kirk Cousins went to Michigan State. Nobody ever heard of Taylor Heineke as a college quarterback. I know, but that's just the history. I mean, the discussion of Kirk Cousins, though, as a quarterback, putting everything, you know, the fact that we knew him, the fact that there was this thing with RG3, the thing that, you know, he was the Shanahan's golden boy. The conversation, which I think was the majority of the conversation eventually,

about whether or not he was a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL or not, you know, was much more intense and much more polarizing. And by the way, I will concede he was the starter. He wasn't a backup. So there was a big difference there, too. This guy was the backup. Nobody ever gave him the job. But I guess part of what I wanted to read this review for was to say this.

You know, I think it's too easy and I don't think it's actually right to say he has to play much better or this team isn't going anywhere. If you're implying Evan that he's got to step it up, you know, and this team has been a pretty, you know, well, has been. I mean, you can take whatever metrics or whatever statistics or just watch the team. You know, you take the fourth and four out of that game the other day. It's a really poor offensive performance. I mean, Church was on with me. Paul Charcy in this morning, you know, from Minneapolis, the fantasy guy I have him on every week. And Church has become a good friend in charge. Charge put out, well, he told me about the tweet. I'm going to have to find it, but I'm going to paraphrase it basically, that the passing games minus the Heineke game against the Vikings

have been all time. Like every quarterback's gone for 300 plus yards against the Vikings. He said, just take the Heineke's game out. He threw for 149 and a key interception in the game. And everybody else has completely lit the Vikings up. Every quarterback and average quarterbacks, you know, Mac Jones. and Mike White with the Jets, et cetera. And then Jared Gough last week had a 340-yard day.

Anyway, I guess what I wanted to say is this. No, he doesn't have to play much better. That would be great if you thought it was possible. I don't. I think he has to continue to do what he's been doing. This is their best chance. their best chance is for Taylor Heineke not to be asked and be required to be much better. And this is going to be criticism, yes.

I don't think he's capable of being much better. I don't. I think you have to take what he is right now, which is don't fuck it up. And then in a clutch moment every couple of weeks, make a fourth and four magical Heineke play and hopefully we can pull it out. Let the defense, let the defense continue to lead the team, let the running game continue to lead it, and don't, if you're saying the team isn't going anywhere unless Heineke steps it up, well, you're going to be really disappointed. He's not going to step it up that much. This is my point, Kevin. I mean, people like, what's his name, Evan, and others,

they will be very unhappy. They will be unhappy if this team winds up making a playoffs and winning a playoff game with Taylor Heineke continuing to do what he's done. Because they're convinced. They're convinced that can't happen.

Yeah, well... So they'll be unhappy. You know, I'll just say this. You can put yourself, and I can put myself, into the same shoes with various knits to pick or various positions we've taken,

where we'd rather be right, even if it's to the detriment of whatever. I mean, it's almost like kind of the society we're living in now, no matter what it is. It's like when you, especially with social media, when you're out there and you've claimed a piece of ground, you want to be right more than anything else. Look, the cousin's thing for me has been all along more about being right. And then I became a fan. Like initially it was like, I just want to be right. I think he's a top half of the league starting quarterback,

and they better sign him now, and they better lock him up. And then they, you know, they screwed the whole thing up. And so, you know, I can't stand them to this day. They've never been able to replace him. Here we are, five years later, they haven't replaced, you know, the guy that was the best guy they had had in forever. But beyond that, I actually like him and I like his game. and I think it's interesting just how he's become such a polarizing figure.

But anyway, beyond that, we all want to be right to a certain degree. I just don't think Heineke, I guess I disagree with you in terms of the level of passion on him. I know some people feel that way. Like, I love the fact that he is an overachiever. He's smart. I know he's smart. That he is well-liked. That he's a good dude.

He's a great teammate. And by the way, he can make some plays, you know. And I cheer those plays. And I cheer the character that he is. And at the same time, I would like him to be better, but I don't think he's capable of it. But here's the thing with Taylor Heineke for me in my position right now. I just don't believe that the solution's much better. And I think, you know, you're going to have to have, Tommy, I don't know if I told you this the other day.

And I had Michael Phillips on today. And I've talked to a couple of people. I didn't feel this way before last weekend, but I feel this way a lot after several conversations. If he doesn't make that fourth and four play and they don't tie that game, he's not the starting quarterback this Sunday. Michael Phillips I had on this morning, he goes, 100%. That's the move that they've wanted to make. They just can't make it. He hasn't played well enough to make a team that would be four and three, let's say in most circumstances,

The amount of offense they've generated is a four and three, three and four kind of record. But they've been very fortunate. And they are six one and one or five one and one with him. So you can't pull him. And I would just argue with Rivera and Scott Turner if this is what they want to do, that the solution isn't much better. And so the only way to Yank him is for him to end up having a terrible, terrible outing. and then I don't think that you end up getting much better.

But anyway, I... Well, let's look at the giant. Well, first of all, let's stick with this, because I want to get back to something else. The Giants had five sacks the last time they played. Right. Okay. Unless the Washington comes up and they're healthier, maybe on the offensive line, well, they don't have their starting center or their backup center,

but it looks like West Schweitzer is going to be playing. center for them. So unless Washington has come up for a better way to protect their quarterback, the Giants who are well-known to Blitz and be very aggressive under Wink Martindale, you put Carson Wentz back there, and he's carted off the field in pieces. Next week, it's San Francisco. One of the best pass rushing teams in the league with maybe the best pass rusher, the second best pass rusher in the league.

you put Carson Wentz back there against the 49ers again pieces taken off the field you know so I mean it's this is the guy this is it this is the only path even if he doesn't play well he still gives you the best chance to win if you put the up I almost wish that they put the other guy in there

I almost wish they would because then it would be a point of being proven right Um, I, uh, I, that's my position with one exception there. My position is this is the guy the locker room likes and this is the guy that knows the offense the best. And there just isn't an obvious solution. So I wouldn't do it. You know, I mean, it's just, you don't have a lot of great choices here, but you have what you have. So in the moment, in the midst of a playoff race, make the best decision. And this guy right now, you know, the team seems to like him. There is an X factor with him in terms of his leadership, in terms of his charisma, in terms of whatever it is that you can't put

your finger on, the players like it. Okay. Now, I would disagree with you on one thing. Let me just get this out. And that is, I think Carson Wentz, I'm not a fan. I wasn't a fan to begin with of the trade. All of you know that. I thought that the offense had a chance to be better than it was last year because it was pretty bad last year with the ability to throw the ball down the field. But I'm just not a wince guy and I couldn't stand the trade. But beyond that, I do, I do, I consider that the start to the season, they first of all, weren't very good on defense to start the season. Their offensive line was a total shambles early in the season.

They had not yet gotten rid of William Jackson III, which is part of the reason they were struggling on defense, we think. They didn't have Brian Robinson, Jr. back, and I think this is the most important thing, this is kind of what Logan Thomas told me on radio last week. Carson just didn't have a grasp of the offense, because I said, what is the number one thing that Taylor Heinecke provides? And he said he knows the offense cold.

He's been in it for longer than anybody. You know, he's been in it for four years going back to Carolina. And it's a complex offense to learn and playbook to learn. And Carson clearly wasn't. there. Now, if he were there now, like if he's during the last eight weeks, seven weeks, he's got a better grasp of the playbook and he's watched Taylor run it. And you've got Brian Robinson Jr. And the defense has become an excellent defense. And although the offensive line is going to be a little bit shaky this week with the new center,

but the offensive line became a little bit better in his absence, not because of the quarterback. I'm talking about just pure pass blocking, you know, numbers. There's a chance that he wouldn't be carted off in pieces against the Giants and then the 49ers. That's the only thing I would say. Other than that, I still don't think it's like... Very little chance of that happening. This is why I wish, you know what, I wish they'd go to... Because I don't particularly care what the team does one way or the other. But at this point, considering that, like, you know, all these people who are convinced that Carson Wentz would be the better option. Let's see it. Let's put them out there. Yeah, well, I wouldn't recommend that. I mean, I do care what happens a little bit, and I think

that Heineke gives them the best chance to win the game, but not by, you know, putting pressure on him to step up and play better. Just continue to do what they've been doing, minus, you know, missing the easy, you know, layup throws, the touchdown pass to Logan Thomas that should have been a touchdown on the opening drive. If you're talking about being better there with the easy stuff, yeah, he's got to be better with the easy stuff. You know, he misses way too many throws, too many throws that they've schemed up that are open. He's got to step up there. I would agree, but you certainly, if the implication is he's got to step up and, you know, be a guy that leads this team. No, he's got to be a guy. He's got to be.

a part of the team like he's been and not be awful, which he was at the end of last year. And he truly hasn't been this year. You know, he has not, he costs them in the Minnesota game. He almost cost him in the indie game, but he made up for that. He almost blew the Green Bay game early. We know that. But for the most part, he hasn't really been awful in any of these games. I know he's got the lowest, you know, one of the lowest QBRs in the league. I know he's he's per, you know, DVOA, one of the worst in the league, understood, all of that. But the truth is he hasn't really blown a game yet, unless you want to look at the Minnesota game.

And in the clutch moments, Giants, Indy, Green Bay, and I'll throw in Philadelphia when he baited, you know, Brandon Graham into hitting him late. Those are big moments in four games where they went three, zero, and one. So he's been clutch at the end. It's been very lucky to. I think most people can, you know, acknowledge that. And hopefully that continues to happen. I wouldn't make the change.

I don't think we've steered clear of, you know, saying that, you know, he hasn't been great. But I disagree with he has to play much better. To me, that's an implication of, you know, he's got to become a real NFL quarterback here. and generate with all those weapons 30 plus points a game. Uh-uh. That's just asking for trouble. He had a really good quote in his presser yesterday. I'm going to paraphrase it here.

But they were talking about up-tempo. Cooley suggested Tommy, they're better when they go up-tempo with him, which I think a lot of people have said, God, he's always good in the final two minutes. Well, he said defenses are softer. They're giving up ground and they're giving up a field goal at the end of a half. And you've got to pick your spots with tempo. Because if you go tempo with a limited playbook and all of a sudden you don't pick up a blitz

and it's second and 18, that's not the way we have to play ball. Like I think he gets it. I think he understands what his role needs to be for this team to continue to have a chance to win. It's one of the things like I don't think he's saying, hey, let me call. go out there and sling this thing around. I think he's got great self-awareness. I also think that he does. I also think he's got a chance.

I said this against the Giants two weeks ago. I just think this defense has to be a defense that you move the football and score some points against. I thought that that could happen against Atlanta and it didn't. I thought that could happen against the Giants and it didn't. I think it can happen against the Giants Sunday night. You know, they should be able to score. more than 20 points against the Giants. They should.

With the weapons they have, they should. Now, their offensive line protection, as coolly pointed out, is an issue. And we'll see what happens. If they're going max protects 70% of the time, they better be running the football well. Understood. What else do you have on the football team? You know what?

I want your prediction when we come back. And I'm sure you want to talk about some of the stuff that came out of the league meetings, right? Sure. That wasn't a ringing endorsement. I just figured that that would have been your preferred conversation today. Look at boss, I'm mesmerized by your conversation, so wherever you want to go, I'll follow. Right after these words from a few of our sponsors.

Tommy, tell us about Shelley's back room. Well, I don't know. I'm sure you've been outside because you had to drive to your studio. It's a pretty miserable day out there today. Measurable. You know? I mean, rainy, cold. It was icy this morning.

You know, and, you know, there's only certain places that you want to be. Most of the time, you'd want to be home. But sometimes home isn't always an oasis, you know? It's not. It's not? No. Oh. Sometimes home is not as welcoming for whatever reason.

So then you're searching for a new oasis, maybe a new home, a new place of comfort and joy. Let me turn you on to Shelley's backroom at 1331 F Street, Northwest, in the district. My favorite bar, great cigar bar, a great place you can walk in and have a nice smoke, a nice whiskey, very helpful staff. If you have any questions about cigars, they have a cigar menu that you can look through and they'll describe maybe what you're looking for to them and then they'll help you pick it out.

Always very helpful. And like this is, for this kind of day, I'm going to pick out some items on the menu, the great menu. Tell me what's on the Shelley's backroom menu today, Tommy. What can I warm myself up with? Okay. This is a soup day, right? Absolutely. Oh, big time soup day. Yeah. Yeah. Lobster Bisk. Ooh, who doesn't like lobster bisk?

Right. New England clam chowder. Home-style chicken noodle soup. Oh, yeah. They know what they say, chicken noodle soup is good for the soul. It is good for the soul. I've heard that before. I've heard that too. Yes. And then if you want to get crazy, smokehouse beef chili soup. Have you had their chili or not? No, I have not had their chili.

Today's a chili kind of day. Yes, it is. It absolutely is. What else is on the menu? I'm starving. I'm telling you, this is the place, maybe that particular day you're home and it's miserable out and you're saying, You know, it's not much better in here than it is out there.

This is the place you want to go. Shelly's back room. They've also got a Shelly's cordon blue burger on the menu today and a chicken parm sandwich. 13th and F Streets Northwest. And tell them that you know Tom and they'll take really good care of you. Anything else on Shelly's? Yes, they will.

That'll do it, boss. All right. Did you follow the league meeting stuff, the Jim Mersey, comments, the story from the post, the story from Albert Breer at Sports Illustrated, or should I update everybody on everything? Yeah, I followed it, particularly the Albert Breer story, I thought was interesting. I'm going to let you have that at it first. Let me just tell everybody real quickly.

So there were league meetings down in Dallas. Tanya represented Washington. Dan was not there. Jason Wright was there also. Lots of questions from DC Media. and national media about the situation in Washington. It's now just referred to as the situation in Washington. The commissioner was asked about, you know,

what he thought of the report from the House Oversight and Reform Committee. But here are, I think, a couple of big takeaways. Number one, Ursae backed off on we need to vote or we have the votes. That's number one. Number two, Goodell didn't really ruffle any feathers when it came to the Snyders. Number three, the Post had a story yesterday, and I think this is the most important one, and I agree with this story. I believe that it to be, I believe that Liz and Nikki and Mark Maskey have this nailed. That Bank of America is moving forward and that they put together prospectus, which, by the way, Tommy, I'd pay to see.

But you have to be a qualified buyer, a potential buyer, to actually get a copy of the prospectus. prospectus, but according to two people with knowledge, the post writes, I'm sorry, four people familiar with the process said they believe that a full sale is the most likely outcome of this. All spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the level of secrecy surrounding the deliberations. One person expressed the belief that it is no longer feasible for Snyder to inform fellow NFL owners that he plans to keep control of the team and sell only a minority share. So the post reporting that they've got people that are telling them this is proceeding and that he's going to sell the entire team.

Meantime, Albert Breer, longtime NFL writer, writing now for the MMQB Sports Illustrated, had a story titled NFL owners bracing for Snyder playing keepaway with the commanders. There remains a scenario where Dan Snyder simply goes through the motions of preparing for a sale, but keeps the team after all. And has a quote in here, he writes, people in D.C. ought to keep the champagne on ice for the time being. This time around at the league's annual winter meetings, every owner who wound up with a microphone in his face towed the league's line,

even Ersei himself. And the, where is it? Where is the one experienced league exec floated to me the possibility that Snyder eventually plays the role of Lucy in pulling the football away from commanders fans at the very end. This exec was suspicious that Snyder could set his price exorbitantly high and refused to sell the team if that price wasn't met, then keep the commanders when bidders fail to get there. By the way, the team put out a statement. I saw Ben had this, and they said, we're focused on football and winning our Sunday night rematch against the Giants.

good for them because that's Tommy a team statement that doesn't need clarification. It doesn't need a second statement to clarify it. You don't need to apologize for that statement. That's how you handle it. All right. What did you think from all of this stuff at the league meetings yesterday? Well, it doesn't surprise me that there's grounding up the wagons in the NFL or a situation like this because the NFL is under attack.

not just Skipper Dan and the commanders. But the NFL is under attack as well. You know, and were the focus of a lot of the criticism that came out at a congressional committee report that was issued. But here's what Albert Breer doesn't take it to account. There's no stadium with Skipper Dan owner of the team. Other than building it right next door to where he is. no one's particularly crazy about that. Okay, there's no stadium in Virginia.

There's no stadium in the district. There's no stadium anywhere else. There's no politician who's going to stand on a stage with Dan Snyder or anyone from the commanders to talk about a stadium. That is dead. And like I said, the most important thing among his colleagues an owner can do is deliver a stadium. I'll bet you in those owners meetings yesterday,

they basically toasted the Buffalo Bills owners for the $700 million they got out of the state of New York for their new stadium. Okay. So there's no stadium under Snyder. That is going to trump everything. I think it's just, I think that's apparent to everybody. It's just not going to happen. Yeah, I think that's, I think that that,

is a big, big part of it. I think also the debt that he has that will come do in a few years is a big part of it because when you pile up the debt on top of not being able to attract a cent from any of these jurisdictions

for the stadium, that makes the stadium basically a non-starter and his ability to kind of build it with his own money anywhere of a desired location other than where they own the land right now. in Landover. I still think that the family has a big role in this. I think that they're moving

forward with this. I don't want to hear, I mentioned this a few weeks ago. I don't want to hear from the league, and I didn't hear this that much yesterday about we have to wait for the results of the Mary Joe White investigation. To me, it's irrelevant. You know, I'm convinced now that there's not really a true, you know, smoking, gun, racist, homophobes. sexual harassment, you know, more than he said, she said. This guy will never take accountability for being the CEO and chairman of a company that had all of this going on for essentially all of the time that he was the owner long before Bruce Allen got there, just wants to blame Bruce for it.

And I don't want to hear that because the bottom line is this market is a non-starter for the league with him owning the team. and they know it and I think even perhaps he understands that now. Do I think there's a possibility that he feels vindicated in some way by, you know, no, and probably wants the Tiffany Johnston stuff to be shot down by a Mary Joe White investigation? I think probably there's some part of it, but I think, and I'm hoping, you know, I guess things can always change, but I think that they are moving through the process. of moving on. And I think that it's a it's the stadium, Tommy. It's the financial situation.

It's the fact that whether he thinks he's been wronged or not, it's not been a great situation for his family. And I just hope this continues down this path that the post is reporting. They're continuing down. They've got people that are saying he is continuing with the process to sell the entire team. I believe that to be true. And that's the end goal here. All the other stuff is, you know, whatever. I don't really care what happens with the Mary Joe White report. Unless there's a true smoking gun where the owners can say to him,

yeah, dude, you got to get out or we're going to vote you out. They're not going to vote him out. They're not going to vote him out. I don't think they need a smoking gun. Yeah. I don't think she needs a smoking gun. She needs a credible, she needs what she believes to be a credible victim and or credible witness. Yeah, they're not going to vote.

vote him out for anything. I didn't say, I'm not talking about that. Well, that's what I'm talking about the conclusion of the investigation. That's what I'm talking about, though. I think that Mary Jo White, she has what she needs, I think. If she believes Tiffany Johnson. Yeah. She'll have what she needs.

Yeah, I mean, how does that work? Mary Joe White conducted this investigation. She has no proof that this happened, but she believes Tiffany Johnson. So what happens? Well, how do you think, I mean, the Harvey Weinstein case happened? I understand that. If you have a credible victim, it happens all the time. There were many credible victims in that particular case.

Jason Friedman supported Tiffany Johnson's testimony that he saw her trying to be forced into a limousine by Snyder. Right. So there is one witness. So I think it's very possible that Mary Jo White had come to a conclusion that this didn't exist happen. Well, I hope they're not relying on it for anything, is my point. I don't think they are. I think you're right. I mean, there's momentum now that none of the other stuff is going to get.

But there's still a lot of bad stuff hanging over Dan Snyder over Dan's head. A lot of bad stuff. Yeah, it depends on what you define is bad. Because really, if he weren't in the process of selling the team, if you believe the reporting to be true from the Washington Post, then you would need, and he had his heels dug in, you would need extra level bad to get the owners to vote him out. And I don't know that that exists, do you?

And I think the investigations that are still continuing will not be impacted one way or the other on what the NFL owners do. They're not going to stop. I didn't say they were going to stop. I'm saying if he weren't in the process, if he hadn't been convinced through whatever the list of reasons were that have convinced him to retain Bank of America to put the team up for sale and sell it, if you believe that to be true. If that weren't happening, if we didn't get the Bank of America announcement and he weren't in that process and instead he was fighting to keep his team, it would have to be extra level bad for the owners to get to a vote, which would be then the only way to. get him out if he didn't choose voluntarily to sell.

Well, again, he's got a criminal, there's a criminal investigation going on in the Eastern Virginia district by a federal prosecutor. Right. Okay. You have the Virginia Attorney General who's investigating him. That would end in like a lawsuit like the Maryland and the D.C. stuff and they pay some fines and move on. It depends on what the conclusion.

of that of that investigation is. You know, there's two sets of books and money to NFL owners may come into play. I guess that's right. D.C. decided to pursue a lawsuit. They decided not to actually charge him with anything. Instead, they sued him. Right. Maryland did the same.

Or Maryland settled with the team. Right. Yes, they did. Payed a quarter of a million dollars. A quarter of a million dollars, right. Yeah. Not a lot. For a team, like I pointed out, that was bouncing 50-50 checks within a couple of weeks of that.

Yeah. I don't know. Thank God whatever happened, happened, and it ultimately led to him deciding to voluntarily do this if that's what he's doing, because I don't think the other way ultimately would have worked. And I think we've talked about this, and if we haven't, I mean, if we haven't, I'm just repeating myself, so be it. but I just still find it so hysterically funny that he boomeranged himself, that he punched himself in the face and bloodied himself so much with the leaking of these emails. Because ultimately this thing was in borderline hibernation before the emails were leaked.

And out of the emails came the congressional investigation, which produced Tiffany Johnston and Jason Friedman, which produced three different investigations from three different jurisdictions, including add the criminal thing to it, and all of that essentially added up to a mountain of, dude, we can't do this anymore. You got to get out. You got to sell the team.

You're right. You're right. It was, I mean, that basically was like an electroshock treatment. That was like, you know, reviving this thing. Leasing those emails. It's unbelievable that he did this. It isn't, though. You know, it's, it goes back to the, the $10 million fine, which wasn't a fine.

It was a charitable donation, most of it. And his lawyer's calling people like you to say, he wasn't fine. Don't write that. And he wasn't suspended. It's like what Howard said last week. He's like, at the end of the day, there's such little self-awareness and an inability to kind of guess on what the next move is after his move that, you know, he doesn't deserve to own. the team. And I pointed out too in this conversation, like you've always said, if not for the leaked emails, the passage of times never helped him. It may have been something else. But really, the root

cause of all of this. Well, the root cause is the behavior, you know, and the management of the organization, the incompetent management of the organization for 23 years. But the root cause of why he ends up voluntarily deciding to sell the team in 2022 and early 2023 is the leaked emails, which we know from the Bruce Allen testimony, as long as you don't believe he perjured himself. And if you believe Lisa Friel, who was not under oath when she told Bruce Allen that it wasn't them, it was the team. But if, you know, we've always, you put the dots together with respect to the

Andrew Beat and Wall Street Journal connection, they did leak those emails, you know, in a fit of rage and a fit of impulsivity, it was just another example of him taking a brick and just hitting himself in the forehead with it. And he could never, and it's just the way he's run the team, too. They've never, ever been a step ahead. They've always been a step behind. And it's never been their fault. You know, after they get, you know, after the results end up being really poor because of

their dumbness, it ends up being somebody else's fault, not his. I wanted to touch on the Maryland-U-CLA game last night, and I want your prediction on the game Sunday. We'll get to both of those things when we come back right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Tommy will have his prediction on the Giants Washington game coming up here in a moment. So Maryland did not fare well last night against UCLA.

Tommy, I can't remember. And I think it was actually a thing. I think it's the worst loss point differential at home for Maryland ever at Xfinity Center. They lost 87 to 60, and that was about as close as it got in the second half, 27 points. This was a beat down from the second half. the beginning. And it's really, it's a shame because the place was amped up. I was not there last night. The place was amped up. The students were there. And, you know, you never even got a run to get

the crowd into it. I mean, UCLA started off in that game up seven to nothing and never looked back. You know, it was 26 to 7. Maryland had seven points with seven minutes to go in the half minutes to go in the half. It was as bad an offensive performance as you will ever see. They turned it over 12 times in the first half, really, really discombobulated offensively in the half court. They couldn't make a shot when they were able to get a shot off. And then they made up for it on the other end by playing horrible defense. Because at least against Tennessee, when they had a poor offensive first half, they were really good defensively, and that got them back into the game in the second half. They were terrible defensively all night long. UCLA shot 56% from the field.

I think for you Maryland people that are tuning in to hear what our discussion about the Maryland-U-CLA game was last night, I think, and I said this very early in the game, I thought they looked really tired last night. And I'm not trying to make an excuse for them, but they had played in less than two weeks, Illinois, Wisconsin, Tennessee, and then UCLA last night. That is a big-time grind. I'm not even counting the road trip to Louisville that was in there as well, because Louisville is terrible this year as part of the ACC Big Ten Challenge. But they just looked tired.

But I will also tell you this, they're really not overly talented. You know, the 8-0 start was with a lot of really good pressure, up-tempo, getting teams to play their style, and they blew out St. Louis, and they blew out Miami, and they blew out Louisville, and they beat Illinois in a tighter game. Wisconsin, they didn't shoot well, but they guarded well, and so they hung in there. Tennessee, they didn't shoot it well, they didn't play great offense, but they hung in there with great defense. I thought they looked worn out, and I also thought they looked overmatched.

I'm not saying that if they played UCLA a month from now, that it would be 87 to 60, and that they would be down at one point in the second half by 36 points. That's what it was. I'll tell you, like I kept saying to my son, my boys on a text, I was like, I don't want to see one of those scores that you see like when a big time school plays, you know, cop and state. you know, like 87 to 44. But that's what it was headed towards.

I mean, at one point, Tommy, the score was 72 to 36. 72 to 36. I saw that on social media, and then I had to Google it because I said, this has got to be a typo. This can't be right. Yeah. And then, actually, this would have been the biggest. I thought 36 were the biggest lead.

With five minutes to go, it was 81 to 44. I mean, that's a 37-point lead. You're playing at home. And so I just said, it can't be one of those scores that, like, people wake up. They didn't watch the game and they're like, huh? Like, just get it back to 80-something. This is what I said to my boys. Just get it back to 80-something to 60-something.

That will look much better than 90-something to 40-something. Because that's what it was trending towards, when it was 81 to 44. Like I was envisioning a 91 to 49 final. And that really does look like those early season games when a heavyweight plays, you know, a Patriot League team. I shouldn't say Patriot League because they've got some good teams. But just a one-sided situation.

And they did get it back. They made a bunch of threes over the last couple of minutes. And they had it to 87 to 60. So they lost by 27. instead of 37 or 40. So you thought Marilyn looked tired? I thought they really looked tired. I did.

Well, you know, I mean, after all, they flew all the way across the country to play this game, didn't they? Well, no, they didn't. They played it at home. Oh, so UCLA was the team that flew across the country to play. Yeah, they did. But they weren't as tired. They flew with the jet stream behind them. It was a much shorter flight coming in the direction that they were coming.

it'll be a longer flight going home. Yeah. No, I don't want to... This is quite the argument. The team that flew across the country wasn't tired. The team that stayed home was tired. Yeah. Look, in all seriousness, UCLA was far superior.

They were far superior in their players, in their execution, in the coaching last night. Mick Cronin's a hell of a coach. And by the way, I think Kevin Willard's a hell of a coach, too. I think this was one of those nights. Now, typically on one of those nights when you don't have it, you're not down by 37 at home. That was alarming. UCLA's better. Jaime Hawkes, by the way, the guy that was a big part of their final four team a couple of years ago with Johnny Zhu Zang and Tiger Campbell.

He's just one of my favorite players to watch in the country. And UCLA's good. You know, I don't know that they're the best team in the country, but it was a bad night all the way around. But yeah, I do think part of it was what they've gone through over the last two weeks in terms of the teams they've been playing. And I think the finals break and the Christmas break where they're only going to play two games over the next two and a half weeks couldn't come at a better time. And I think we'll see better results. But let me end with this. I said, I think, last week, I've seen better teams.

with better players. Like, I don't think Maryland's overloaded with talent. So they're going to lose a lot of games this year. But I do think what's, you know, been clear here early in the season is they look like a tournament team where before the season we didn't think they would be a tournament team. And I'm not going to back off that. But they're not going to win. Yeah. As long as they get their rest.

As long as they get their rest. Yes. As long as they get, because if they don't get their rest and they're tired, well, then you have that. You have that. Right. Thank you. So who do you like Sunday night? You know, Washington has not had an answer for Daniel Jones even before Jack Del Rio got here. You know, and he still doesn't, and he has not been able to come up with an answer for him.

I think Daniel Jones is going to be the difference maker. He becomes Michael Vick when he. when he plays Washington for some reason. I think both quarterbacks are going to be key to this game. I think Taylor Heine is going to score three touchdowns that either through the air combination on the ground, but I think Daniel Jones is going to score three touchdowns as well, similarly through some kind of combination, and the Giants win 28 to 27.

Well, that would fit with the close games that they've had. I mean, the games that Daniel Jones has started against Ron Rivera's teams, three-point game, one-point game, one-point game, and a tie. I mean, the average margin has been right around one point, so you just nailed it. One point either way, probably. That's a little bit higher scoring than I think most people will think. But they did play last year at FedEx Field on that Thursday night early in the season.

30 to 29 was the final score. 28, 27 Giants. Okay. Big game. I mean, this really is the biggest head-to-head matchup of the weekend in the NFL, as far as the playoff picture goes. That's why they put it on Sunday night. The winner's going to have a big, big advantage. The winner is almost assuredly a playoff team in the NFC.

Yeah. The playoff implications are huge in this game. When this game, as I've said earlier in the week, you have to win one more, and you're almost definitely in. All right, anything else you got, boss? I got nothing else for you, boss. Okay. That's it.

All right, have a good... I'm going to see, I want to mention, I'm going to see one of my favorite bands Friday night. King Soul? I'm going to see the Soul Crackers. No, no. I have, there's another soul band I follow called Soul Crackers. Okay.

They're playing their annual Christmas show at, I think, the Rockville, I forget, Rockville Elks or Rockville Eagles or somewhere. down there. It's sold out. So if you wanted to see me there, you're going to have to stand and see me on the red carpet going in. It's not a long red carpet for the Soul Crackers, but it's a short one. And you and will Liz be going with you?

Or is it just you walking on the red carpet by yourself? Okay. No, Liz will be gone with us? We're taking some visitors with us as well. You have visitors. Wow. Yes. Okay, then.

By the way, I do want to mention as a public service announcement to those of you that are either going to the game Sunday night or are thinking about the game because the game is not a sellout at this point. But the team and Metro reached an agreement for Metro to stay open an hour later than typical. So that Metro will be open at 1230. So if you are planning to go to the game and you're planning on taking Metro, you will be able to take it home. I know that that's always been a concern for night games. Remember some of the playoff games for the Nats? And Metro wouldn't, you know, extend the hours, which was nuts. You know, it's good for the city.

You know, I tweeted out about that. Basically, I tweeted out that spoiled milk poured into the learner's suite. The learners wouldn't pony up the money. Oh. To keep Metro open. Right. Was that it? So this is a shot at the learners indirectly. Good job.

All right. We're done. Have a good weekend, Tommy. I'll talk to you on Tuesday. All right, boss.