The Kevin Sheehan Show - The Poll

Episode Date: May 9, 2021

A short podcast today reflecting back on the Post poll from 5 yrs ago. Also, what would the actual NFC Championship odds for Washington be if they had Aaron Rodgers and Russell Westbrook's record-tying night.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Chean Show. Here's Kevin. A podcast sprint today. I'm talking 25 minutes or less, I think. I know I say that a lot.

And we're usually still talking an hour and a half later. But today, I promise it's going to be very short and sweet. It begins with a happy Mother's Day to my mom who listens to the podcast, occasionally, my wife who never listens to the podcast and all the moms who might be listening to the podcast. Happy Mother's Day to all of you. Three topics. Topic number one, did you know that it's been nearly five years to the day since the poll, the poll, the Washington Post poll. Remember the poll that revealed the results of over 500 Native Americans asked several questions about the team's name?

Over 500 Native Americans, by the way, representing every state and the District of Columbia and a significant broad range of categories, demographic, and otherwise, different ages, income levels, education levels, different reservations, proximity to different reservations, political party affiliation. The poll that asked several questions related to the name, the most significant being, does the team's name offend you, yes or no? The results were surprising, I think, to a lot of people. 90%, 9 out of 10 Native Americans said five years ago that the team's name did not offend them, that it wasn't offensive.

This was the first sentence from that May 2016 story in the Post. Quote, 9 and 10 Native Americans say they are not offended by the Washington Redskins name. That's according to a new Washington Post poll. that shows how few ordinary Indians have been persuaded by a national movement to change the football team's moniker, closed quote. By the way, I went back and read that story and read the poll. 90% said they were not offended. 1% said that they did not have an opinion on the matter. So if you concluded that 10% that 1 out of 10 said they were offended,

actually, it was 9% that said they were offended. So the ratio of not offended to offended was 10 to 1, not 9 to 1. Anyway, the polling was surprising at the time because even people like me who I was not convinced that Native Americans felt overwhelmingly the way that many non-Native Americans had pushed, that they were, that they were, that they were, that they were, that. times had changed and their opinions had changed and that all of the old data was outdated and that they felt differently. So when this poll came out, I was surprised. I thought that many that were sort of in this movement to get the team name changed, most of whom were not Native Americans, I thought that they had made some headway. I thought maybe they knew something we didn't. They sure seemed like they were right about it. If you weren't sure just ask

them. You know, they didn't really even want a conversation with actual data. They didn't think it was necessary. They seemed to know more than anybody else what that culture should be offended by, and they spoke for them loudly. You know, in any of the previous data, reflecting that the name wasn't in issue, was chalked up as old and outdated. They said that that 2004 Annenberg study, or the Annaberg poll, that, by the way, had almost identical results to the post poll, but it was 12 years earlier, they claimed that that study was obsolete. They didn't necessarily argue the results of the Annenberg study. They just harped on how many times, or how times, excuse me, how times had changed. And that new polling would reflect those changes. For some of us, you know, we wondered

occasionally if they might be right. They spoke and wrote with such certainty. I remember very clearly my position. You know, if it was true that Native Americans had changed their minds, show me, give me the updated data, and I'll be on board with the team name changing. But they never provided any of that data, which was suspicious. But still, you know, their passion and their very sort of used car salesy pitch was so sure and so absolute. You know, there was a little bit of light a hand in the pitch. You know, don't look over here, look here. Don't look at that old data.

That wasn't a real poll anyway. Look here. Look at this dictionary. Webster's tells you all you need to know. It tells you that even if they aren't offended by the name, they should be. Anyway, those people, they were surprised too. I don't think they ever believed that a majority of Native Americans would be against the name, but they thought that their activism had made up some good.

ground in 12 years, but it hadn't. The post poll shut down all of the bullshitting. And I'm not claiming that a lot of the people that were adamant about the team name changing weren't doing it from a place of honesty and real heartfelt feelings. You know, I just always felt that they weren't necessarily speaking on behalf of a culture that wasn't their own. own. But I didn't necessarily, and I knew a lot of the people, I didn't necessarily think that they were doing it dishonestly or for personal gain. I know several people who really believed in the cause. They felt passionately that they were speaking on behalf of the latest, you know, sensibilities, the latest sensitivity of a people that had come to realize how hurtful the name was.

And it's not like there weren't some people that felt the way they did. The post poll reflected 9% felt that way. And to them, if it had been 1%, it was still worth it. But they weren't selling 1%, right, in the moment. They weren't selling 9%. They were selling a movement of hurt, a majority movement of hurt. They told us how bad we were that we insisted on keeping the name, and we used the name, and we sang a song with the name in it. And it was so hurtful to so many. That's what they were selling. The post poll was a beatdown, a major beat down, and it quieted the movement, as did some patent and trademark decisions in courts. There were a few other data points along the way that pretty much shot it down and put it to rest for a while. But we know the rest of the story.

A little less than a year ago, there was a murder by a police officer in Minneapolis, and in the days and weeks following George Floyd's death, you know, the Washington team name got swept up. You know, it was swept up really by a coalition of corporate sponsors and their shareholders, investment firms as well, and their shareholders and their partners, you know, representing over $600 billion in assets. They were the ones, the shareholders of those corporate sponsors and those firms, they were the ones that called on those sponsors and those firms to sever ties with the Redskins if they continued to call themselves the Redskins. Boom, that was it. It wasn't a dictionary definition. It wasn't, hey, don't look over here, look here, don't look at

that old data. The new data will suggest something otherwise. No, it was money. Federal Express, Bank of America, Pepsi. They probably didn't even know about the dictionary definition or any of the polls, but they had all the pull. The name which didn't offend anywhere near the number of Native Americans who claimed to be offended by mascots, imagery, chants from teams like the Chiefs and the Braves and the Indians, the name that wasn't really offensive to them, other things are offensive. again, mascots and Tomahawk Chop Chants, those things polling reflects are offensive. The Washington team's football name was not offensive to Native Americans, but that was gone. Personally, over the last year, I'm surprised a bit by my lack of passion on this topic.

I'm okay with it. I didn't think I would be. I think if the team had been winning and it was a respect to, franchise, I think losing the team name would have stung more. But, you know, it's sort of on the list of things that have really damaged the franchise. It's sort of down the list, isn't it, to a certain degree? Not for everybody. And I'm going to get to the second part of this conversation here in a moment, and that is team valuation. But the team has been inept for so long. Dan's done so much damage in so many different ways that it just sort of gets swept up into all of it. If the team was

a respectable franchise that had been winning, I think I would be, I think I would feel differently. I know many of you, though, were stung by it and still are. Hopefully, the franchise is changing on the football field, and maybe, you know, if they're in a Super Bowl this year or next year and the next couple of years, maybe then the name loss will sting a little bit. But for now, I don't know, it doesn't as much as I thought it would. Now, the other part of this is that the Forbes list of sports team valuations came out last week, the 2021 list. And I believe that the loss of the team name impacted Washington's value. I always suggested that it would. Snyder always knew that it would. even Snyder's significant or minority shareholders knew.

Even Fred Smith and Bob Rothman and Dwight Schar knew that losing the team name would affect valuation at some point. Now eventually Fred Smith at FedEx and all of his shareholders and his customers said, enough is enough. But I was very interested to see sort of comparatively what the Forbes list reflected a year ago and what it reflects now. Washington in the updated 2021 list is 19th among all of the world's sports franchises with a $3.4 billion valuation. They are number eight on the NFL list behind Dallas, New England, the Jets, Giants, Rams, Niners, and Bears. Last year, they were 14th on the overall list, and they were number six among NFL teams. So they are dropping. And look, the performance of the team has been impactful to the team's position on this list.

You know, the fan base isn't what it was, and it's reflected in top line revenue losses. We've seen that, not TV, but every other revenue category. But here's something just to keep in mind with respect to whether or not the team name impacted the team's valuation. I believe it did. In the last year alone since losing the team, every NFL team in front of them on the list and the several teams that followed them on the list, those teams overall average valuation went up by $265 million. The average of the teams in front of them on the list and the teams behind them on the list, their overall value is NFL team. teams continue to go up in value. It's just what happens. It's almost impossible to lose value, especially with the new TV deals. The average was $265 million of value gained. Washington's value gained $100 million. That's it. If you don't think the loss of the name had anything to do with that,

you don't understand the risk of brand change, major brand change. And some of you would say, well, you know, they don't have their new name yet. So once they get their new name, their valuation would go back up. Uh-uh. Their temporary name, the placeholder, might be less damaging to them than the new permanent name. Now, with that said, what will change everything for the better is winning and winning quickly and winning big quickly. anyone will tell you in marketing or in branding that if you're going to change something significant with your brand, a longstanding brand that has a passionate customer base, it is major risk.

There is major risk associated with that. And that if you're going to change something significant with the brand, the product better be better. It better be great right away. Or you're going to lose an emotional attachment to that product. And that's what we've seen here over the last year, I believe, is that there's some emotional attachment loss. Now, again, it goes on the list with all the other things, the losing, the shenanigans,

the sexual harassment, all that stuff, the culture, all of that stuff is very significant to Washington gaining little in value compared to every other NFL team that went up more significantly in value. But losing the team name had something to do with that. that. By the way, what about these other teams? The Indians announced they were going to change their name. They haven't made any progress on that, but it takes time. We know that. What about the chiefs and the Braves? You know, these mascots, the Tomahawk Chop Chants, when are they going to be eliminated? Because the polling actually really tells us that it's those things, the imagery, the mascots,

the chance that are the most offensive to the Native American community. Time will be. Time will tell on that, I guess. The Indians the only one at this point that have announced that they will change their name. All right, I talked to an odds maker, someone who does NFL and sports odds for a living

about what Washington would be with Aaron Rogers. I'll share that with you after this word from one of our sponsors. So what if Washington had Aaron Rogers as its quarterback next year? I know it's not very likely, and I know

some of you are annoyed at the hypothetical, but it's not a hypothetical that Aaron Rogers might be traded. It's not a hypothetical that many people believe that Washington, if they were super aggressive, would be a possibility. Denver would be the favorite. An AFC team would be the favorite because Green Bay would want to move them to the AFC, not to an NFC team. No team in the NFC North is going to be able to make that move. But as we talked about last week, Bill Barnwell from ESPN.com, put Washington chances at sort of second behind Denver. But I don't think he's going to end up here. It doesn't mean that I wouldn't be super aggressive in trying to make it happen. But there's something that I learned the other day that sort of backed up a thought that I had that I know I shared last week.

And that is, what if they did have Aaron Rogers? Eric Zimney is the lead odds maker and runs the sports book for Hollywood sports book and casino in Charlestown, but all of the Hollywood sports books across the country. He is their chief odds maker, their executive that runs the sports books for all of the Hollywood casinos. And I've had a relationship with Eric over the last couple of years. He's come on the show many times. I like him a lot. He's smart. And I texted back and forth with him on Thursday, and I said, I'm just curious. If he's a lot, he's smart, if he's Washington got Aaron Rogers, what would their odds be to win the NFC championship? And he said, well, did you see what happened to Denver's odds just on the possibility that they might land him?

And I said, I know they changed significantly. He said, essentially, they went from 30 to 1 to 12 to 1. They went from 30 to 1 to win the NFC championship to 12 to 1. And I said, yeah. And he said, they don't even have them yet. if they have them, they'll be the second favorite in the AFC behind the Chiefs. And I said, well, what about Washington? And he said, if Washington got Aaron Rogers, they would be the second favorite behind Tampa Bay,

which is what I've suggested. And I said, how close would it be? He said, much closer than you think. He said the spread between Washington and Tampa Bay to win the NFC championship would be, even smaller than you think because Washington's in an awful division. They've got a really good defense and they would be teed up with a reigning MVP at quarterback. And I said, well, what would the odds be? I said, to me, it feels like Tampa would be like plus 250 and Washington would be plus 400. He said Tampa would be a slight favorite. Plus 250 is about right. Washington would be

less than plus 400. He said they'd be in front of the ramp. the Niners, the Seahawks, the Cowboys, anybody else. This is somebody who does this for a living. He's the chief odds maker for all of the Hollywood sports book and casinos. I figured Washington would be right there in the conversation. I thought that Tampa would still be sort of the solid favorite. He thinks it would be much closer than expected. And he also thinks that Washington's over under.

number would go up significantly. You know, right now the Packers' over under number is 11. Washington's 8.5. So you could pretty much flip-flop that. Washington would go to like 11, 11.11 and a half somewhere in that area. Tampa is at 11.5 right now on their win total. Remember, it's 17 games next year. So Washington would have the highest expectations for playoff success than it would be the

highest expectations in 30 years, unless you want to throw 2,000 into the mix when they had signed all of the offseason big name free agents. And a lot of people thought that they had a chance to go to the Super Bowl that year. Give me Aaron Rogers. Give me the expectations, but more importantly, give me the outcome, because I think the outcome would be three to five years of having a chance every year to get to the Super Bowl. Russell Westbrooks night, when we return right after this word from one of our sponsors. Last topic, Russell Westbrook last night, tied Oscar Robertson for the most triple doubles in career history with 181.

In fact, Russell Westbrook last night became the first player in NBA history. First player in NBA history to have 15 or more rebounds, 15 more assists in back-to-back games. Westbrook had 17 assists and 17 rebounds in the overtime win over Toronto on Thursday night and had 19 rebounds and 15 assists last night in the 133-132 win over Indiana. Bradley Beale had 50 in the game and did not play the last minute of regulation or the five minutes in overtime because of a hamstring injury. Let's hope he's okay. They have no shot of advancing to the round of eight without Beal.

Although the Wizards are making progress right now in the standings, they are currently a game and a half behind Charlotte for eighth. if they can make up that game and a half, and they finish with Charlotte, and get to that eight spot, they are then in a double elimination situation rather than a single elimination situation. Anyway, Russell Westbrook last night.

It was a Russell Westbrook night. It was one play where you're like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. And then the next play where you're like, No, no, no, no, no, no. Yes! Yes! I mean, the possessions down the stretch in regulation and then in overtime were possessions that I am convinced

are going to hurt this team in the postseason. I am enjoying this. Don't get me wrong. I'm enjoying all of it. They are an entertaining team to watch. My God, look at the games during this stretch. 133, 133, 131, 129, 135, 134, 134, 141, 125, 125, 124. That's their last five games, two of them overtime games.

I mean, they are so much fun to watch. They don't guard very much, we understand that. And they don't have much of a plan other than a plan that many teams have. and that is we've got some playmakers, and we're going to space the floor. We might give somebody a screen, and we're going to let them make plays. And with Westbrook on offense, when he is the lone true playmaker without Beale on the floor, there's a lot of that no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Yes, or no.

Last night, at the end of regulation, it was just stand around, and let's see if Russ can win it at the buzzer. he didn't. Then down one in overtime at the end. Let's see what Russ can do. Oh my God, he's double teamed. What's going to happen here? They fouled him on a fadeaway. And he made both free throws. I was convinced he would miss one, make one, and we would go to double overtime. I love him. Nobody tries harder. He's on the verge of breaking

a mark that at one point seemed impossible to break. And he'll probably do. it, right? I mean, I mean, he's going to do it in his next game. I mean, the chances of not having a triple double are long shot chances now. Like he's going to have a triple double against Atlanta on Monday night. I love watching him. I love the energy. I love the way the team is playing right now. I think there's a lot of interesting pieces. Beal's health is crucial. He was great last night. Had 50 before you could see the hamstring and you could see, you know, in regulation that he was not healthy. He did not come back in. He wasn't going to risk it. They're safely in the play-in mode right now. But they have zero chance in a best of seven without

Beal. And their chance is quite honestly in a best of seven. I think they can get to a best of seven in a top eight seed in this playing tournament. But when you watch the way they play end of games and half court possessions, man, you're just hoping for playmakers to make plays. There is very, very little structure. There are occasionally a couple of downscreens, a couple of flare screens, but there's not much else. And look, I'm not blaming Scott Brooks. I think a lot of NBA coaches sort of just let their best players, you know, make the plays.

And Westbrook does it, but there are many times where he doesn't, too. and I think it's also one of the reasons that he has an advanced deep, deep, deep into the postseason. I would love for this year to be different or next year to be different. I think what's becoming clear is that this team's coming back and so is Scott Brooks. And they're going to be a team that wins 45 games next year if it's an 82 game schedule. They will, barring serious injuries. And they'll be a top four, top five seed next year in the East. Last night was crazy, man.

another one of these crazy Wizards games. He is just lightning on the floor energy-wise, and the energy and the effort get him most of the results. I'm not suggesting there isn't a lot of skill and talent, because there is, there's no doubt about it. The fact that a point guard had 19 rebounds, three games after having 21 rebounds. I mean, he's now gone for 19 or more rebounds,

three times in the last 11 games. A point guard. Right now, Russ, I think, is sixth in the league in rebounding as a point guard, averaging 11.4 rebounds per game. Anyway, that was fun to watch last night, and their games are becoming must watch. I know not for all of you, but trust me on this, if you're a basketball fan, they are fun to watch. Okay, that's it for the day.

Enjoy the day. Happy Mother's Day again to all the mothers out there back tomorrow.