The Kevin Sheehan Show - The Zion Lottery

Episode Date: May 14, 2019

Kevin opens with a few more thoughts on Game of Thrones and then gets into one of the biggest NBA Draft Lotteries in years. Will the Wizards' fortunes change tonight? Kevin then reacts to the Albert Breer story about Jay Gruden's increased involvement in the Skins' pursuit of a quarterback this off-season. Kevin has Chris Raybon/The Action Network on to discuss why rookie QBs should play in year 1 plus much more. <p> </p><p>Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices">podcastchoices.com/adchoices</a></p> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You want it. You need it. It's what everyone's talking about. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Now here's Kevin. All right. I am here. Aaron is here. This show's presented by Window Nation. If you're in the market for Windows, call 86690 Nation or go to Window Nation. And tell them that we told you to call. Thanks to all of you for the help in editing the show yesterday. It's always appreciated. Aaron and I appreciate that a lot. Actually, we really do. So if we miss on an edit, and you guys call us on it and mention it to us. We get it fixed. Sometimes it won't fix, right, Aaron, the people that have already downloaded this show, right? And listen to the show. But if you get a later version, it's updated. But appreciate those that pointed that out. Redskins news this morning, the charges against Monta Nicholson were dropped.

Kareem Copeland from the Post, I think, was the first report that misdemeanor assault charges against Monta Nicholson stemming from a December incident have been dropped. His lawyer said they were dropped due to insufficient evidence. Also, the misdemeanor public swearing slash intoxication charges won't be pursued at this time. That is the latest on Monta Nicholson. Going to be very interested to see if he ends up showing up for OTAs now that this is cleared, because I don't know personally whether or not, Monta Nicholson was a favorite of this coaching staff before the incident in December.

Remember, they traded for Haha Clinton Dix. But I think Monta Nicholson's a talent. I know that Jay Gruden thinks he's a talent as well. But on some level, that could end up being more good news for the Redskins who have been on a role with recent good news. Now if it just continues in the fall on Sunday afternoons, that would be great as well. Aaron, I watched Game of Thrones again last night. Quick spoiler alert, by the way, for anybody who hasn't watched it yet. All right, just come back in a minute, or fast forward it, a minute.

But I still have the same thoughts that I had yesterday, except for one thing that we didn't mention, and I think we mentioned to each other when the show had already been recorded and put up yesterday. The whole ARIA thing is confusing to me. She left Winterfell with the hound without telling anybody that we know of. She arrived in King's Landing, roaming the streets, without telling anybody. I don't think John knew that she was there.

And now she's leaving on a white horse without anyone knowing that she was there or where the hell she's going. Like what exactly was the point other than the Aria farewell to the hound, which I think was one of the few breaks from fire incarnate, in the episode, and one of the two very emotional moments in Sunday night's episode, the other being the Tyrion Jamie farewell, which was so emotional. Of course, somebody said to me yesterday, they said, I was incredibly moved by the Tyrion Jamie segment as well, but if Tyrion had really loved his brother, he would have left him locked up in Dragonstone and not sent him to what became hell on earth.

Yes. But back to Aria for a second. Where is she heading? No idea where she's going I mean my I'm convinced that she was there Just because Less from a narrative standpoint and more They wanted someone on the street

They wanted someone kind of going through it And Aria fit that role You mean taking you through the nuked out streets of Kings Landing Yes Seeing what was going on from that perspective Not just from the soldier you know we got with John We got like kind of what the soldiers were doing But with Aria we got to see the people fleeing through the streets

And we got You know what some of the most intense scenes because of that. So I think it was more of a, they needed her for a purpose and less of a narrative structure. But as far as where she's going, I assume she's just going to the camp where everybody else is going to end up. Where she can say to John, yo, I know I didn't tell you I was there, but man, your queen and her dragon nearly torched me. Yes. If you're interested.

But, you know, somebody suggested maybe she's heading to wherever Gendry is and she's going to end her life and settle down. And their life is an assassin and settled down. I don't think that's going to happen. Anyway, still a very good episode in my opinion. I know not everyone agreed. I spent more time yesterday talking to people about the show than I had before we recorded yesterday. And not everybody enjoyed it. I did.

I enjoyed it. Again, understanding the context of everything's being rushed, the Uron Jamie thing I thought was kind of stupid. I don't necessarily, I wasn't necessarily satisfied with Searcy's death either. but anyway, I thought it was a pretty intense episode. Intense could be tonight or a reaction to what happens tonight at the NBA draft lottery. It's a chance for the Washington Wizards to change the fortune of their franchise, certainly the way people view it. This is the Zion Williamson sweepstakes tonight in the NBA lottery, which will take place before Western Conference Finals Game One, which I'll have a very brief preview of here momentarily.

But it's a rare occurrence where there is not just a consensus number one overall pick, but a player so coveted that he is viewed as someone who will turn the team that gets him into a future contender, a future championship contender. There is no doubt in people's minds that Zion Williamson, whoever gets him, that team is going to be a championship threat. in the future. You know, John Wall may be the last number one overall pick where, you know, he wasn't just the consensus number one, but people viewed him as a lock to change the franchise, but I wouldn't put him in the category of the list that I'm going to give you right now,

which is a list of players that were viewed when they were selected as historic franchise changing players potentially. that list includes, and I went through the list of the number one picks going back to basically Kareem, Lou Al-Sinder, because before that, you know, I don't know, I didn't know enough about the players. This is like the, and I wasn't, you know, I don't remember Lou El Cinder being drafted either. I do remember barely Bill Walton being drafted. But the list includes 11 players who I think were players that when they were coming out of college, either in the pre-lottery era or the post-lottery era,

were thought to be not just consensus number ones, but players that would change significantly the fortune of the franchises that took them. On that list, pre-Lodtery was Lou El Sinder, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, to the Bucks in 1969, Bill Walton at a UCLA in 1974 to Portland, David Thompson was selected by Atlanta overall in the 1970, draft, but he went to the ABA. I've mentioned this many times before. David Thompson,

for me, is the greatest college basketball player I have ever watched. Now, you know, in context, it's the 70s and, you know, it's a different game, but David Thompson was truly the first college basketball player I can remember of my youth that was uncheckable on every level. He was that great of a college basketball player. And by the way, he was playing simultaneously with, or, you know, not exactly year-to-year matchup with Walton, but Walton was dominant as a college basketball player. But on this list, Lou El Sinder, Bill Walton, David Thompson, Magic in 1979, was considered to be a franchise changer. Ralph Samson in 83 was definitely thought to be, you know, this massive franchise changer. The lottery came into

play just in time for Patrick Ewing to go to the Knicks. all of the conspiracy theories that followed, and Ewing was considered that kind of a player. David Robinson was considered that kind of player in 87. Danny Manning was considered that kind of player in 88. Shaq in 92, Duncan in 97, LeBron in 2003. That's the list of players that I think Zion Williamson now is added to. Players that were beyond consensus number ones, players that you thought as a sports public and teams thought that if we get the number one pick, that guy is going to turn us into a championship contender. Very interesting thing about the list that I just read because, and again, that's a list in my opinion. Some of you may put,

you know, other players onto that list. You may put wall onto that list. You might put Anthony Davis. I don't know. But that's my list of the players that, from what I remember, they were thought to be major historic franchise-changing players and talents. Of those 11 players that I listed, you know, consensus number ones, but much beyond that, they, eight of them basically lived up to the billing, Kareem, Walton, Magic, Ewing, Robinson, Shaq, Duncan, and LeBron. Thompson went to the ABA. Manning certainly didn't live up to it, and Ralph didn't.

You know, Ralph did initially, I mean, you know, they beat the Lakers, got to the 86 finals with he and Elijah one. And by the way, Elijah one's not on that list. And Elijah one turned out to be one of the greatest players in the history of the game. But Elijah one, if you recall coming out of Houston, he was the number one pick, but he was exceptionally raw as a player coming into the NBA. Zion Williamson, anyway, is being viewed in that prism. one of the most obvious franchise altering players in the history of the draft. He looks the part physically. He looks the part like LeBron does physically.

And he plays with an edge and a spirit that looks like the one season he played at Duke is him just barely scratching the surface of what he will become. That's what it looks like to me. The Wizards have a 9% chance tonight of getting the top. pick, 9%. They have a 27.6% chance of getting a top three pick, which would put them in the running for John Moran, the 6-3 point guard from Murray State. I believe that Zion's going to be a great NBA player. I also believe the same about John Moran. Now, if the Wizards got Zion, they would get a bump equivalent, if not greater, than the bump the Redskins got by selecting RG3. That would be

the comp. You know, Harper, not so much, because we knew a lot about Harper, but you didn't really see Harper play until he got here. It was the buzz about Harper. It was the SI article about Harper, the prodigy that Harper was. But in terms of the bump that a franchise here locally would get, Zion to the Wizards, there's only one comp for it. It's RG3 and 2012 to the Redskins. And, you know, I know it's the Redskins versus the Wizards. I get it. The Redskins having a much bigger built-in audience than anybody in town, especially, you know, certainly the Wizards. But if the Wizards get the top pick tonight, and with it, Zion Williamson, they would be getting more than just a Heisman trophy winning sensation, you know, from Baylor. They would be getting the most popular

needle mover college basketball has had in years, years, Aaron. It helped that he played at Duke. Of course, I get that. Going back to November, though, when Duke opened their season, remember when they blew out Kentucky by like 40 points and Zion went, you know, was magical that night, he became a star. People watched college basketball during the regular season, watched Duke anyway for the first time and a long time. College basketball's popularity had been waning. And I think Zion Williamson to Duke gave it a jolt this year, that it has not had in a long time that sport. He played in front of Hollywood. He played in front of professional star athletes like LeBron. He played in front of former presidents. Remember Obama at Cameron Indoor for the Duke Carolina game the night that he blew out the shoe. Everybody wanted to see Zion Williamson. He's the biggest college basketball star to enter the NBA. He's the Whoa, let me back up, not college, but he's the biggest star to enter the NBA since LeBron. And we didn't even get to see LeBron play before he got to the NBA.

And it was well before social media became such a factor in our lives. He's a bigger pop culture figure than RG3 or Bryce Harper or even LeBron was. You know, it's, I will concede that the Duke thing has a lot to do with it. You know that if Zion Williamson had decided to go and play at... South Carolina. Yeah, South Carolina, which is his home state. That's a good comp. It would not have been the same thing.

If he had gone to Kansas or Kentucky or North Carolina, it probably would have... But Duke was the perfect spot for it to become a pop culture, for him to become a pop culture phenomenon, which is what he became. If the Wizards win this lottery, he's going to sell tickets immediately. he's going to attract eyeballs, yours, mine, and nationally, immediately. In fact, the eyeballs on the Wizards will increase exponentially if they get the pick tonight, the number one pick. The attention on the Wizards will become significant.

They'll go from a team that nobody cares about right now to a team that everybody in sports begins to pay attention to. Now, if they end up getting the number two or three pick and they can pick John, Morant, I actually believe that his impact long term in terms of wins and losses could equal Zions. I love John Morant. So if they end up with the 27.6% chance of getting a top three pick, which right now, Zion, John Morant, and I guess R.J. Barrett, right, are pretty much the consensus top

three picks. Zion, obviously, the number one. But, you know, I've seen mocks with either Morant 2 or Barrett 2, but no worse than either one of them going third overall. all. Anyway, while we're on hoops, we didn't mention the B-Line story yesterday because it sort of happened as we were recording and then we knew it and we just didn't get to it. We forgot about it. But I am intrigued by this. First of all, as a Maryland fan, I'm happy John B-Lines out of the Big Ten. He is a great college basketball coach. Great. Been one of my favorites for years

going back to when he was at West Virginia. By the way, did you see who the leading contender is right now? I mean, I've seen who people are campaigning for. Billy Donovan. Well, that's who I would, if I'm them, if I'm them and I'm him, I think it's a perfect match. But if he wants to go back to college, which I'm really surprised he hasn't gone back to college already. This seems to me, you know, we're assuming he's not going to coach that much longer in Oklahoma City. If he's looking to go back to college, you're not going to get a much better opportunity than Michigan opening up. So it makes all the sense in the world to me. I, if Billy, Billy Donovan is a good basketball coach. You know, the NBA to me is not, I just, I think that the, I think a college basketball coach has much more of an impact on a game than a pro coach does. And I would, I would imagine that Donovan misses that, whatever. I mean, he won two national championships as a coach in Florida. Um, look, the history of, of college guys going to the NBA isn't great, you know, Calipari and Patino and. And,

Leonard Hamilton to the Wizards, you know, from Miami. Lon Kruger, who I think is a very good coach. Brad Stevens here recently, yes. Fred Hoyberg, no. Billy Donovan, not really. So, Beeline, though, you know, the thing about Beeline is there's a lot of what I would call micromanaging coaching. Like, he likes to micromanage possessions.

That's not the NBA. But at the same time, he does a great. great job in spreading the floor and using his talent in a way to create space and to shoot threes. And I like him as a coach. I think he's an exceptional coach. I wonder at his age, with the way he micromanages a game, I wonder if that'll fit in the NBA, you know, especially with a team that's not very good. Well, we think they're not very good. For all we know, they might get Zion tonight. Exactly. But anyway, exceptional college basketball coach, I have have no idea how it will work out for him in the NBA.

I would guess that it wouldn't work out well if you force me to bet it either way. But it's not going to shock me if Beeline has success because he's smart. And the way he coaches spreading a floor and creating matchup issues and, you know, drive kick three. But, you know, boy, I'll tell you what, I mean, that team also was such a great zone offensive. team whenever they faced it. And you don't see that in the NBA. Anyway, so there was that from yesterday that we didn't touch on.

Tonight, Western Conference Finals game won. No Durant for at least the first two games, maybe longer. I think Portland has a chance tonight. I think Portland has a chance to make it a long series. I don't think they have a chance

to win the series. I will pick right up front, Golden State, in six. So I'm giving Portland a chance to win two games. I think Clay Thompson on either Lillard or McCollum will be interesting. I think that's really where Portland's strategy begins. They're going to try to isolate Curry defensively with either Lillard or McCollum. That will be a huge part of their game plan as much as anything else will be.

And watching how that works out will, and if it works out well for Portland, it's going to keep them competitive. They've got a terrific backcourt, obviously. with Lillard and C.J. McCollum, and both, you know, equally being able to, you know, keep a team in a game and give a team a chance. The Blazers, by the way, are a better coach team than Houston. They're going to make Golden State work defensively more than Houston did. You know, the great thing about facing an ISO team, even when the guy that is doing most of the ISOing, like James Hardin, and he's difficult, I understand, very difficult stop, but you get to rest on defense. You know,

three players, sometimes four, get to rest on defense, which makes you more productive offensively. It's a big missing piece of the discussion about Golden State's success, about Houston's failure, about, you know, analytics and ISO ball and shooting threes and the whole thing is no matter what you do offensively, you've got to make somebody work defensively, or it's going to be easier for them on the offensive end. Uh, the thickness isn't the same defensively for Portland, but the length is very effective with Aminu and Harkliss and, you know, a guy like Zach Collins off the bench is a shot blocker. I think this is a good series coming up. I mean, I think at some point, maybe tonight,

you're going to think for a moment that Portland has a chance. I don't think they'll win the series, but again, I like Golden State in six. Uh, quick word. about Window Nation. It's graduation time, not just for schools, but it's time for your home to graduate, up to new energy-efficient windows from Window Nation. And as a graduation gift, all window styles, 50% off.

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The reason I asked him to be on the show is he wrote a very interesting story about quarterbacks in their first years versus the quarterbacks that you wait on. And specifically talked about Mahomes and Alex Smith in that first year in Kansas City in 2017. And so he will be joining us here shortly. But I did read after the show yesterday, and I don't know if it was out before the show, but I didn't read it until after. I did read Albert Breer's story in Sports Illustrated MMQB on the Redskins in Gruden. And I wanted to take five minutes to talk about that.

There are two quotes. He interviewed Gruden for this story. And Breer's been a good, Gruden's been a great contact for Breer over the years. Some of Breer's stories, especially going back to that RG3 story that he wrote in 2014 during the season with Gruden's quotes in it, Breer's been able to get Gruden to open up a little.

little bit. Not that it's that hard. Gruden will tend to be very honest as we've talked about, but there were two sections of his story that I wanted to read and comment on. The first is this, that Gruden made a massive investment in studying the quarterbacks this year to see if one would warrant Washington's first round pick, Breer wrote. Gruden personally watched every 2018 throw and then some. From every quarterback the team was considering picking, not just Duane, This is a quote from Gruden now, not just Dwayne, not just Kyler, but all of them. From Clayton Thorson to Jared Stidham to Ryan Finley to Will Greer, all those guys, Gruden said, quote, more Gruden, watched every game, every throw that they made, how they handled themselves under pressure. That's the big thing.

You try to find good defenses that gave them pressure to see how they handled pressure and go through all their throws. And if you have more than one season, you go back and watch another season. Dwayne only had one, Kyler only had one. Then Breer writes, the Redskins then met with the quarterbacks at the combine, canvassed all their pro days with offensive coaches, and used eight of the 30 in-house visits. Teams are allotted for prospects to bring quarterbacks to Washington. Haskins, Stidham, Thorson, Finley, Greer, Drew Locke, Daniel Jones,

made it to the facility to meet with the team. Murray canceled on them late in the process. For Gruden, Breer writes, most important thing was knowing this class of quarterbacks. And he felt like he knew this class better than any class since 2011 when he was in Cincinnati, by the way, when Carson Palmer's retirement led to Cincinnati to draft Andy Dalton in the second round. Okay, a couple of things about this. Breer makes it very clear that Jay was more involved in the quarterback search this year than he has been since 2011 when he was in Cincinnati. This is something we've told. We've

talked about. You know, I mentioned the Case Keenham thing. Remember there was the story, and I think it came from the junkies on 106-7, I could be wrong, it may have come from somewhere else, where somebody had said that Jay didn't know about Case Keenum, and I said, no, that's not true. You know, Jay didn't know about Alex Smith. Jay was not asked to evaluate Alex Smith significantly or any of the quarterbacks in the draft last year, which, by the way, Jay admitted, remember, last year. I think his involvement in the Alex Smith decision. I'm not saying that he didn't know about Alex Smith and that he didn't look at Alex Smith, but I think his influence in that decision was, was nil. This was, Bruce wanted to make that move and he made that move. More coming up on that, by the way, with our guest here shortly.

But I think Jay was, and I talked about it. Jay's more involved. He was more involved in Case Keenham, and he was more involved in looking at other quarterbacks, potential free agent quarterbacks like Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he was much more involved in looking at the rookies, college quarterbacks. Now, what you have to consider and you don't get from this story necessarily is whether or not Jay was more involved in this process because Jay decided to get more involved in this process or if Bruce said, hey, the Alex Smith thing, it wasn't the best fit. I need you more involved. And then Jay got more involved. I hope it's the latter. I hope there was some admission from Bruce that he needs help in evaluating these quarterbacks.

and that he's going to rely on some of his people to help him evaluate the quarterbacks, or maybe it was just to include Jay in the process, so Jay felt more included in the process. Alex Smith was not a good fit for Jay Gruden. Bruce Allen didn't know it at the time. Why would he? He's not very good at doing this. This time he wanted Jay involved in the case Keenham evaluation and in all of the rookie quarterback evaluations.

I like that. I hope it's Jay being asked and Jay, you know, getting excited about being more involved in that. I hope that's how it played out. Then there was this quote in Albert Brewer's story. When you draft a quarterback in the first round, a team, this is Breer writing, when you draft a quarterback in the first round, a team is hoping to have them for 15 years. If you hit on the pick, if you hit on the pick, it means job security for everyone. It changes everything.

then the response to that from Gruden is, quote, that's the hope. But we're not giving up on Case Keenum or Colt McCoy either. They're going to have a chance, an opportunity to compete and win the job. And so it might be a year, it might be two years, it might be three years. All right? These guys have a skill set that's pretty appealing as well as far as their ability to rally teams around them and compete. But it is exciting to have a quarterback here that you're going to have for at least five years, that you know you can grow with.

You can build your offense around his skill set. It's exciting, for sure, closed quote. A couple of things real quickly. Number one is that Breer makes it very clear in his story that Jay likes Haskins. He doesn't make it clear whether or not he likes Haskins more than any other quarterback or less than any other quarterback, but that he likes Haskins.

He believes in his physical tools. So that's good. And I believe that too. And I made a point the other day to say, look, when we've talked about the reports that this is a Dan Snyder pick, it was a Dan Snyder pick, but it doesn't mean that Jay Gruden didn't like Haskins. It doesn't mean that J. Gruden wouldn't have loved Haskins as a second round pick or a later first round pick, that the football people wouldn't have loved Haskins, you know, late first

round, early second because their grade wasn't top 15. It doesn't mean that he doesn't like the quarterback or the quarterback's potential. And he evaluated these quarterbacks. So he had input on Haskins, and it was positive. I don't know that it was more positive than it was on Daniel Jones. I think Gruden liked Daniel Jones, too, but Daniel Jones wasn't there. I think a very interesting thing would have been what would have happened had Jones and Haskins been there at 15. We'll never know.

But he does like Haskins, but he also said in that last quote, it might be a year, it might be two years, it might be three years. So we're going to find out soon enough here. You know, they're going to go ahead and let them compete. And we're going to find out. We're going to find out if Dwayne Haskins is ready to compete for an NFL starting job as a rookie or whether or not it's more of a long-term play. We will know that within a couple of months.

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Kevin D.C. All caps. Kevin D.C., K-E-V-I-N-D-C. That's Stamps.com. Enter Kevin D-C. If you're a small business, you've got to try out their special offer. All right, I want to bring in Chris Raybon from the Action Network. If you bet on sports, follow the Action Network on Twitter and follow Chris on Twitter at Chris Raybon, R-A-Y-B-O-N. And somebody sent me the story that you wrote on the myth of starting quarterbacks in year ones, you know, sort of sitting versus starting and what the results have been on that over the years. And then you had some very interesting information

and thoughts about Patrick Mahomes sitting that first year in Kansas City as it relates to Alex Smith, who the Redskins traded for a year ago. And never really before his injury, Chris, got into a rhythm offensively with Jay Gruden. But I want to start with basically a big premise for your story that you wrote, which is, you know, why the thought of sitting a rookie quarterback in year one isn't necessarily a good idea. Yeah, sure. So, you know, I was kind of going along with the conventional wisdom that, you know, I was sure that, you know, my home was probably benefited from sitting.

And then, you know, when David Gettleman started all this madness, you know, the giant scam started all. this madness about, you know, the Kansas City model and the Green Bay model, I decided to look at the numbers. And it turns out that really the only quarterbacks that are sitting in year one are the ones that are either behind a Hall of Fame guy like a Brady or a FAR, or they're just not a really good quarterback to begin with. And if you look at the numbers for many of these other quarterbacks, the better quarterbacks in the week, they're starting in year one. And not only are they starting in year one, but they're pretty much putting up numbers, you know, on par in year two that they are in year one. And also the ones starting in year one are going on

to have the best careers. So, you know, there's a correlation between year one starts and, you know, career success in terms of not only, you know, length, but also efficiency. So, and winning percentage. So I found it kind of silly that people would kind of say, well, these quarterbacks are gaining this great benefit from starting in year one, when in reality, it's just more of coming down to the quarterback skill level or who's in front of them to begin with. Give us some of the names, because I think we all, as football fans, think of Aaron Rogers sitting behind Brett Farb as a massive success story,

and Patrick Mahomes in that one year sitting watching Alex Smith in what was and turned out to be Alex Smith's career year, being a benefit to him as well. But they are few and far between compared to the guys that have started in their rookie seasons and had success, right? Absolutely. You know, if you look at some of the other names,

it's kind of funny, you know, Brody Croyo is a guy that comes to mind. You know, Kevin Cobb, Kellynne, James, Jake Walker, Garrett Grayson, Chad Henney. I mean, these are the other guys. And it's funny because, you know, this is being called a model,

when in reality, there's just not a lot of guys that have even done this that have, you know, you know, sat on the bench and then, you know, kind of got on to do much of anything at all. But, yeah, there are a lot of guys who really nothing ever came of them. And that's, again, just because they are, they weren't highly still a quarterback. And there was a reason that they were sitting on the bench. But guys like Cam Newton and Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck and so far, Deshawn Watson, you know, Ben Rothlisberger, Philip Rivers, you know, all. the guys that all started almost right away have had great careers as well. What is your

hunch, you know, because you don't necessarily have any numbers, but what is your hunch about Dwayne Haskins? Do you think the Redskins are better off starting him from the get-go or not? I do, because I think, you know, I think there are obviously some reasons to be, you know, concerned about Haskins and some reasons to be excited about him. But I do think that he should be starting in year one because, you know, if he's not the answer, you want to know that quicker. And there's also just reason to believe that, you know, the quicker you get a quarterback out there, you know,

the board he's learning on the fly. You know, one of my big criticisms with the chiefs and Mahomes and sitting him was that, you know, a lot of the things Alex Smith could have taught Patrick Mahomes. And I'm sure, and, you know, everyone says that, you know, he didn't learn from him. and he benefited from having a guy, a veteran on the team. But, you know, Alex Smith was out there running an offense that was running it in the exact opposite way that Mahomes has brought in to run it.

So how much benefit can you really get from watching a guy do that? And I think, you know, it's kind of a similar situation in Washington where you won't ask him, given his ability to make all the throws, you want to get him out there and really see what he can do. And I think that would, I think it would be Hoogh him to start him from day one. I think one of the things that I took from your story before we get to the Alex Smith stuff, which was very interesting too, and you've already, you just began to touch on it, is that the Redskins have Case Keenham and Colt McCoy potentially in the building,

and Colt McCoy is not even healthy yet. So neither one of them is, you know, you would consider to be Hall of Famer or, you know, a legitimate proven, you know, top-tier elite starting quarterback. And so if Haskins isn't starting from the get-go, it could be that what the coaching staff is saying is you've got, you know, you've got a guy that isn't ready to start or may not be that good, potentially based on your study. But I want to move on to Alex Smith here for a moment in the season he spent with Patrick Mahomes. Because I think it may have been like a month ago. This came up in a conversation. And I just said to, you know, I think it was Chris Cooley who was on that.

that day with me. I said, does anybody really think that Patrick Mahomes wouldn't have been great in year? Like, seriously, after what we saw last year, was it so much, and he complimented Chris, you know, Alex Smith a ton and gave him a lot of credit for his year to success. But does anybody watching Patrick Mahomes last year think that he wouldn't have done the same thing in year one? And you say, of course, he would have. Yeah. And this was something that, you know, I was even a little bit surprised by the numbers because, you know, essentially when I looked at it, you know, what the numbers come out to be is that there is a small, you know, there's a jump from year one to year two in the average quarterback. And I looked at quarterback, just to be clear, you know, day one

and day two guys that were drafted since 2005, which is the year Rogers was drafted. So essentially, since you could start sinking in the, in these terms. And it turns out that, you So if you look at their yardage increases by about 5% from year one to year two, their touchdowns jump about 27% on average, and then they're adjusted net yards per attempt about 11%. So there is a jump from year one to year two things. One, when I looked at now just the better quarterback, the guys you mentioned, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Andrew Lump,

Sean Watson, those guys don't really make any jump from year one to year two. were good right away. A lot of those, that average of jump, those rates of increase come from the fact that you have guys like Blake Bordell and Ryan Tannihill, who really had poor rookie years and then made, you know, jumped into kind of that, you know, average-ish, you know, below-average, average kind of, you know, tier in their second year. So if you look at like a Russell Wilson, you know, his number didn't change at all. Cam Newton, you know, more yardage, actually, his rookie year. you know, one more win the next year, you know.

So a lot of these guys, Deshawn Watson was actually on pace for 48 touchdowns in about 5,000 yards himself. So Deshaun Watson stays healthy. He's on pace to put up those Mahomes numbers in year two in his rookie year. So, you know, there's a lot. And even if you apply that projection, you know, with those increases, and you're getting Mahomes, you know, and knocking down just to what that would have projected out to in year one, he would have still led to week.

in every category as a passer. And the chief would have scored three more points, which per game, which could have been the equivalent, could have been enough to get them, you know, that will get a win against Pittsburgh or enough wins to maybe get a number two seed instead of a number four seed, which, you know, just drastically changes their Super Bowl chance is coming in. Because, you know, when you come in as a four-seat and just having Alex Smith, of course, you know, is changing them too.

But there's a lot of things that could have gone differently had this team started Patrick Mahomes in year one. No doubt about that. One of the things that always surprised to me about the 2017 season in Kansas City, and I talked about this a lot when the Redskins traded for Alex Smith, is there was a stretch of that 2017 season where they lost like either five out of six or six out of seven games and were spiraling out of the playoff hunt when they had started so strongly.

And one of the major reasons is that they couldn't move the football and they couldn't score. You know, they played a game in the Meadowlands against the Giants where they, I think they scored nine points and lost in overtime. They played Buffalo and could barely score. They went to Dallas and could barely score. And I remember thinking, wow, they traded up for Mahomes. He must not be ready. Must not be any good if they haven't put him in there for Smith. I'm wondering why Andy Reed never made the switch during that season. Oh, yeah. You know, this is, and I actually wrote about So I actually, I do team preview for every team for the Action Network, did them last year, talked about this in the Rescans preview,

and actually did a lot of Redskins media last year, and people kind of, really, a lot of people disagreed on this one. But, you know, Alex Smith, at one point during that stretch that, that you mentioned, Travis Kelsey actually, to the media, says, we can't beat Cover 2. Until we can beat Cover 2, defense is going to sit on it. And that was a trend that started in the Pittsburgh game.

And, you know, essentially, you're playing a cover two shell. You know, Alex Smith, you know, he sees the two safeties deep. He's not really going to try much deep unless it's wide open. And you have an extra defender underneath now. So that persisted for a while. And I think when I really looked into it, you know, I was kind of surprised as well. But, you know, going off the reports, you know, the local report and, you know, some other reports from EFPN, you know, from camp, What it seemed like was that they made the decision when Mahomes was drafted not to play him for the duration of year one.

And that sounded kind of strange to me because it was, quote, unquote, a near unanimous decision as a Kansas City Star report. And it just, it was weird to me that it wouldn't be a unanimous decision, yet they would come to this decision seemingly bounding. You know, it didn't seem like they said, hey, we're just not going to start it from the jump. It seemed like they said, we're not going to take this guy off the bench in year one. And it seemed like it looked to me at least, like, and I give more reasons in the article, but it looked to me at least like order to recover from directly from the top, from far time. Part time, the owner, always been an announcement, got always kind of been a guy known to want to do things the right way, been a guy known to at times, you know, be sitting better safe and sorry and kind of draw out potential transitions.

You know, even going back to, you know, the firing of GM John Dorsey, who, you know, didn't happen as quick as some people thought it should have even right after the draft. It kind of wingered for a few weeks. So, you know, that's what it kind of looks like to me that Hunt potentially did not want Mahomes out there in year one. And, you know, let's remember, you know, you got to feel for Smith at the same time because this was a guy who – and this actually proves the point, too, but this is a guy who in San Francisco, He was having a career year in 2012, and they had a defensive team perfect kind of for, you know, what most people would think Smith is, which is a game manager, you know, perfect team for that. And yet he gets hurt, he gets a concussion, and he never gets a chance to win his job back. You know, Harbaugh goes with Colin Kaepernick on a team that you would think is perfect for an Alex Smith type of quarterback having a career year, not turning the ball over, completing a high percentage of his passes. And so you have to kind of question, you know, the upside of Alpsmith and what's really thought of him around the league.

And a lot of times I think, you know, he's getting the chances that he got later on in his career because he is just such a good dude and such a class act and a guy that he don't want to root again. And so, you know, I think Hunt had a lot to do with him staying out there that whole year because Hunt actually declared him the starter in February, two months before they even drafted Mahomes. and he would have to be very complimentary of him, very protective of the narrative surrounding his imminent departure, even well into that season when they were in a slump. Yeah, that's fascinating stuff. You know, in thinking about not only what happened here and how the trade came about with really the football people

not necessarily as much involved as they were in the case Keenham signing, as an example in this offseason, and Bruce Allen really being aggressive in going after Alex Smith, in part a lot of us felt at the time because he wanted to save face on the whole cousin's debacle. Well, they needed a starter too. There was no doubt about that. They needed a starting quarterback. But I think about that 2017 Chiefs team and think about that second half when they had a 21-3 lead over the Titans in that wildcard round game.

And Kelsey got hurt, and they couldn't move the football. You know, it was painful to watch them, you know, give up that lead. And, you know, this was in the midst of Kansas City losing all those home playoff games before they finally won one this year at Arrowhead. But it was, you know, in many ways, and you wrote about this, it was a lost opportunity for the Chiefs in 2017 with the team they had. Absolutely, Kevin, because, you know, and I'm a big numbers guy, but I'm also a big film guy. So, you know, as I was doing this article, I made sure to go back and watch and watch those games and watch that Titans game, you know, just to make sure I didn't have any, you know, confirmation bias.

And I looked at all the, every single play, especially after Chelsea got hurt. And, you know, there were some drops that there was a missed deal, though, but really what you saw was that Alex Smith, there were a lot of plays where it was just a defined read for him to get rid of the ball really quickly. He didn't really bother looking downfield at all. And then you put yourself in that position then when you have a drop or you have something not go your way that you just can't get out of a hole. And second and long, third and long, there were just too many plays where Alex Smith, you know, threw way underneath. At one point I think he threw about like five yards behind the line to Tyree Kill.

He pulled a couple of balls down and run maybe two or three balls down and ran with them to nowhere and put them in really tough situations. And also it allowed the Titans to really creep up. and hone in on the run game because Kareem Hunt, you know, who was really, really great for them that year, only 17 yards on five carries in the second half. And, yeah, I think that if Patrick Mahomes is out there and, you know, in that game or just from the moment they kind of went into that slump that you mentioned, I think that there, the Kansas City Super Bowl chances would have been anywhere from, you know, at 1% higher to more than quadruple. And that's what I kind of talked about in the article.

Anything better than Alex Smith for that 2017 team has a tangible impact on the Chief Super Bowl. Yeah, and by the way, I remember that Tennessee game so well, Chris, because I had the Titans on the money line. And down 21-3, you know, there was no chance. And then all of a sudden, Derek Henry's running wild in the second half, including, I remember it was like a third and 12 late in that game. They needed to get a first down. and he picked up like 20 yards to ice the game.

But as it relates to the Redskins, though, this is why, you know, look, Case Keenum for $3.5 million was worth it, considering their quarterback situation, and there was no guarantee that they were going to get something in the draft. But I've advocated here over the last few weeks since the draft is if Haskins is anywhere near close to Keenham or Colt McCoy, they should play on. And you've given me more reason for it now with this story. But one of the reasons I said that they should do it is they've got to find out on this guy sooner rather than later. Because there were mixed feelings on Haskins at Redskins Park.

The football people don't think and would have preferred that Haskins had come later in the first round, not at 15. And I think some of the people like Daniel Jones a little bit more than Haskins. But you've got to find out because next year's draft is once again, loaded. Not that anybody out there is thinking that way, but I want to see him sooner rather than later as well. If he's ready, and if he's not, what you're suggesting in your story is it may be a reflection of what he is, especially given the competitive landscape. Last thing on the Redskins last year with Alex Smith, I'm assuming that you predicted this going into last year, that it wasn't going to be what Bruce Allen and Dan Snyder were hoping it would be. But were you surprised

that Jay Gruden didn't seem to, you know, create an offensive opportunity for Alex Smith. There was very little bootleg. There was very little play action. You know, there was a ton of RPO and there was too much dropback. There was no quick game. You know, you talked about cover two. They faced in week two last year, Indianapolis, where, you know, underneath stuff was open all. game long and they never threw it. What did you make of the whole Gruden, Alex Smith, you know, dynamic last year? Yeah, you know, and this actually, I mean, I don't want to say I predicted exactly what would happen, but you know, I did, I did call the Redskins out before the season for that move and I thought it was the wrong move. And yeah, I think that

one of the problems is that, you know, the whole front office, down to the coaching staff, I don't think this is a front office nor a coaching staff that necessarily deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to these decisions. Because first of all, you mentioned the Broncos and Keenham this year and all that. And, you know, the Broncos are actually the team that we're going to trade for Brown Smith, not the Redskins. And Clark Hunt, the owner of the chief, actually kind of blocked it and said, no, we're not training them in the division. So, you know, I think as fans, as people who cover the team, you know, people like me coming from, you know, the betting background and the fantasy background, we kind of have the skin in the game sometimes.

And so we're not as biased. And we don't, we kind of check when these front offices are trying to sell these moves. And I think that I would also encourage, you know, the media at large to do that more because I think a lot of times they're just trying to sell these moves because that's what that's what they happen to make. You know, like even with the Haskin situation, you know, the Giants took a lot of heat for what they did with Daniel Jones. but, you know, there was a lot more going on with these quarterbacks in this draft. I mean, the Broncos traded out of the first round, of this time, you know, they could have

took lots. They could have took Haskins. They declined. Lots, lot remains there. You know, if the Redskins, if the Giants take Haskins, the Redskins probably take another quarterback and they're going to say, of course, we wanted this quarterback, you know. So, you know, I think that last year, I think that Jay Gruggan did not do a good job with Alex Smith.

I think that Andy Reid is a way. wizard, Nagy, Matt Nagy, who was the coordinator of that in 2017, you could see why he got a job with Chicago and why they had the success that they did, and Trubisky had a complete night and day turnaround from year one with John Fox. There are certain coordinators that are, that they understand how to play to their team strengths, and I'm not sure Gruden has less so proven to be that guy. I mean, you know, he kind of had a situation where he had some good coordinators in there at times and you know he had

he had Robert Griffin and his talents there for a while before he his injuries kind of took their toll and then you know cousins they kind of lucked into him you know looked into having drafted a second quarter which I think was a really good movement you know I think that that kind of saves her as been and then they get rid of you know and I'm not sure that they wouldn't have been better off just just continuing on with cousins who had his own problems in Minnesota

also for coordinator reasons but I think I wonder sometimes they've all All of this could have been avoided if they had just not kind of, I guess, ruin the relationship with Kirk Cousins in D.C. I'm not sure they would have been any words off. Well, just so everybody's clear on this, Chris and I have never talked before, and I had no idea what his position on Cousins was. But just so you know, Chris, I've been one of the biggest defenders in the market of Cousins, and I still to this day think it was a massive mistake after the 2015 season not to lock him up for a deal that Kirk would have been willing to sign in the moment for somewhere, you know, in the neighborhood of, you know, 45 to 50 million guaranteed, which right now would look like an absolute bargain NFL contract wise.

Sean McVeigh was a big part of Kirk Cousin's success here, as he was obviously in turning Jared Gough around as well. I don't know that I totally disagree with you. on Gruden, but I do think Gruden knows how to put a pass offense together, and I think it just sometimes takes the right guy. The interesting thing about our Alex Smith discussion, Chris, is that, you know, a lot of Redskinned fans will say, look, you know, he didn't turn the ball over like Cousins did, and, you know, they were five and two when he got hurt. But, you know, any real objective, you know, analysis of what you were watching, the Redskins were struggling offensively with Alex Smith to throw the football and move the football consistently. And it was going to catch up with them before the end of the year had he stayed healthy.

And by the way, he does have certain leadership abilities and, you know, and smarts that you want in a starting quarterback. But it wasn't a good fit with Gruden. It just wasn't. Yeah. I mean, if you are, you know, for Rescan fans who, you know, it might ruffle feathers and People might not be happy to hear about that with Alex Smith, but just look at it objectively, I think, go back to his two best seasons.

2012 with the Niners and 2017 with the cheese and ask yourself, why in 2017 did he get benched and never got a chance to earn his job back? And why in 2017, after his career best year, were they still fine, was shipping him off for a quarterback that they've never seen? That's right. You know, always see a start one NFL game. You know, this is, you know, you can, I kind of compare it to, it's going to be a very odd comparison, but I think it will actually click to some extent

with Redskins fans. You know, remember the quarterback that won Super Bowl is that aren't really considered very good. Eli Manning, Joe Flacco over the past few years. Joe Blackko, always known as a guy who, you know, one thing about him, he had the odds. He would go down the field. Eli Manning, a guy who, earlier to the midpoint in his career, he would interceptions were used proper for him. I mean, he had one year, I think he had like 20-some-on interceptions.

He was always throwing the ball down the field. It would get tipped up in the air, getting picked off. These guys won Super Bowls. Now look at Eli Manning. He has a career-high completion percentage. He rarely ever throws an interception, and yet the giant offense can't move the ball. And they have all of these, they have two potential future hall things.

Right. And the reason is because the simple fact of not challenging tight windows, not challenging down the field. And this is Alex Smith's problem. He was 40th of 41 quarterback in tight window throw rate in 2017. The thing was, he didn't have to ever throw on a tight window. Albert Wilson led the league. Yeah. Wait, Albert Wilson led the league.

That's right. In your story, you said in terms of separation, right? Yes. Yes. And this is not, I'm not saying Albert Wilson's amazing. What I'm saying is Harry killed Kelsey Hunt that Reed, Nagy. This created a situation where even Alex Smith's, you know, secondary receiver, a guy like Albert Wilson, was so wide open that he'd never even have to think twice about throwing the

ball. So this is what this is what this is a guy like Alex Smith creates. You won't see the turnover because he's not taking the wrist. He's pulling the ball down. He's taking sack or he's throwing it away or he's taking a short game. this exact criticism of Eli Manning in New York now, even though his numbers from a completion percentage standpoint and a turnover standpoint are as good as they've ever been. So that's what I would kind of suggest to anybody who kind of disagrees with that. And again, I would suggest don't,

you know, question your front offices, question the decision makers because there's a lot more going on behind the scenes and they're going to sell you whatever they do. And there's only going to be 15 teams that have winning records at the end of year. There's only going to be 12 teams that make the playoffs. Again, the offseason, every single move in the local media tends to be given more of a positive spin. You always have to ask yourself, what's really going on? No, it's all, this is really good. I'm enjoying this conversation, and just real quickly, before I let you run, I, and definitely, I think I was in the minority with cousins with respect to what I thought he would become had he stayed here, especially with McVeigh. But I'm also

more of a Flacco fan than I think most people are. And I think Denver is one of those teams that has a chance to make a significant turnaround. If he's healthy, they drafted the tight end and Fant. He always needs that. But the reason I like him is statistically there's no reason to love him other than he will threaten defenses deep, as you mentioned. But for some reason, in every important game the Ravens ever had, he played his best. Yeah, you know, he's kind of, it's kind of, again, it's a, it's a situation, it's a thing that you can't really measure.

It's just an uncanny ability for him to do that. Now, Denver's another team that's been highly critical of with their quarterback, with their decision-making. I thought that fans Joseph was a poor hire. I thought that everything that had happened essentially since that team won a Super Bowl kind of was a poor decision-making and starting up there with John Elway. So I think that, you know, this is a situation where, you know, I'm cautiously, I'm kind of skeptical, honestly, a little bit, but I think that Blacko, you know, is a guy that could make it work for them if they can kind of get the right guys around him. I think taking a stamp there was a good pick, but at the same time, it does make you question like, okay, you know, we said we needed a quarterback. And now, are you in a situation where you're trying to win now and is locked really the answer? Because, you know, he stayed on the board for a long time and you're kind of saying,

okay, we're going all in on Joe Placko here. We're going to get him tight end. We're going to do it this way. And it just makes you question, does this team have enough? However, I did do a model. I created a model where, you know, you can kind of figure out teams that have a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl by simply looking at, you know, their DDOA in the year prior. and only about a third of the week will qualify for that next year.

And the Broncos are one of those teams because they had a good enough defense. So I think they are a team that could surprise some people if Blacko plays as well, as we know he could play, especially in those key moments. Does Jacksonville fit that category? Jacksonville actually did not fit that category. You know, they just had too well with a floor. So essentially you have to have a certain floor in one of the three phases, offense, defense special team and a certain feeling.

And Jack'sville was just a little too low. I think Jack DeVille kind of, you know, they kind of thought they were better than they were that year when they had that great defense and, you know, everyone stayed healthy. And then the injuries kind of hurt him this year. And now, you know, certain guys aren't playing and certain guys want to be traded. And I think, you know, Tom Cawplin is not really doing, you know, making any friends or doing it. the team, and he favors by kind of being critical of a lot of the team stars. And I know that it's all about culture to him, and he's won like that in New York.

But at this point, I don't think it's necessarily good if you're going to end up running guys out of town in Jacksonville because that's not necessarily a team that everyone's pocket to go to in the first way. So I think Jack was probably still at least a year away. Though I do think polls is interesting because he's shown a very high feeling if he's gotten the right play calls around. Well, let me just go back to what you said. said, you're saying that teams that finished in the top third of defensive DVOA, right?

No, so it's more complicated than that. It's essentially you look at the DVOA in all three phases. Okay. You want to have a feeling in one of the three. You want to finish, you want to have a top 12 finish, you know, in one of the phases, and then you want to have no lower than, you know, XBO a certain amount in another phase unless you had a really high finish in another. So there's a few qualifications if you guys can read it.

It's called only 12 teams over at the Super Bowl future right now. It's on Action Network.com if you want more information. But essentially the Broncos along with the Patriots, the Chiefs, and a couple of other AFC teams were included in that model. About two-thirds of the week, essentially, it gets disqualified. And this is worked for, I believe, it's 29 of the 31 years that I use the data for. So I just thought it was interesting, and I said I'd bring that up. The Broncos actually make the cut.

Yeah, well, I mean, it's one of the teams that I think has a chance to surprise next year. But again, without looking at top 12 and then floors in all three categories, I just look at their defensive talent and think that if they can stretch the field and make big plays offensively, which they haven't been able to make, they could be dangerous. I would certainly assume the Redskins are not one of the 12 teams. Yeah, no, they're not. And essentially, the upshot of it, and why I did it, you know, just to compete. about their little background with, just to look at, you know, how much can you improve in one year

and how far can that take you? And essentially, it's really hard to improve in one year in the NFL to the point where you actually can win a championship. You know, you could get really close. Like, think of, you know, the Rams and how they kind of step out of the air. And Jacksonville. Right, right. Yeah.

So you could get really close. You could get really close. And, of course, it's still a such a small sample because there's only been so many Super Bowls. I know it's been so many years we have to be the state it for. But, yeah, it's really hard to kind of get over that hump to the point when you are a champion in one year. But, yeah, the Redskins, they've got, you know, sat here in this kind of mediocre purgatory for a while now.

I think their highest upside teams may have been those, the Robert Griffin, you know, before he got hurt, that team. And ever since then, it's kind of been this kind of like 9-7, 10, 6 feeling. and the floor is it's not super low with some of the other teams like a Giants in that division, but it's kind of been in that, you know, six-win range, and they have to do something to kind of get them over that hump. And I think, you know, the NFC is always there for taking every year. So I think Haskins, this is a big year to see, you know,

if Haskins can at least be a guy who looks like he's going to have a bright future in this week. I'm keeping you longer than I probably told you I'd keep you. But just out of curiosity, do you, we all know that. essentially on average somewhere around 50% of the playoff teams each year are teams that didn't make the postseason the year before. Do you have any sort of predictive model that gives you the teams more likely than not to turn it around into a playoff team from a non-playoff team the year before? So I personally didn't create my own predictive model for that outside of you know just the models I use for predicting wins and stuff like that in general.

But I will tell you that one of the main things that you can look at when you're trying to figure out who those teams are is there's something called a Pythagorean Win theorem, which sounds more complicated. A squared times B squared equals C squared? Yeah. So it sounds more complicated than it is, but essentially all it's saying is that a team's point differential

will correlate more towards future wins than will their win-loss record. So if you look at a team's point differential from last year and you use the Pythagoras theorem to essentially convert that to wins, which you can find on pro football reference or many sites do it, but pro football reference will have it right on the team page. It will tell you how many wins. They essentially should have, games they should have won given their point differential. And then you look for teams that won more games or less games than their point differential. And that's how you kind of, that's a very popular way.

I think Bill Barnwell of the SPN has actually done the article. every year about it. Just looking at that, Bill Stinnis has done it, where you just kind of look at that, you can kind of find teams that are going to regress. And it's weird because actually

one of the teams that had the biggest difference was the New York Giants. They won five games. Their point difference was suggested they should have won seven. And I have my skepticism about them because I think that they have a problem in New York that's a lot bigger than David Gettlement.

I think it goes straight to John Mara in New York. So I think there might be a reason that that team is underperforming. But, yeah, I think you can look at that and get a sense of which teams are going to relax. And just looking at that without having the actual model in front of me, I mean, you mentioned the Giants who had a minus 43 point differential and they had five wins. The Lions had a minus 36 point differential and had six wins. And for whatever reason, each year I think the Lions are capable.

I don't know why. And they just don't seem to get it done. but Denver six wins and their point differential was only 20 minus 20. Right, right. Denver seems like along with yours and my hunch, by the way, which usually is strictly contrarian, you know, basically taking a poll of what my friends think and then going opposite of them, that's really worked for me over the years. I think we're both on the same page as it relates to the Broncos being a surprise team in 2019.

Yeah, I think it really comes down to, again, I think the defense is fine. It just comes down to can Flacco do this or can Lott give him what Flacco is not? And I don't, I think that, I think that from my point of view, I'm probably a little more skeptical than you, only because I think that at this point, John Elway, like, really the only good point. You don't believe in him. No, I don't. I think there's a lot. And I wrote about this, you guys want to check out my Denver Brancos's 2018 previews.

all there. Before the season went down, I talked about this. But I think that they have the potential. I'm not ruined. I think this is the NFL. It's about a ceiling week. It's about who has the upside. And that's why the same reason why I think Alex Smith is not a good choice

to be a starting quarterback of a franchise because he has the floor, but he doesn't have the ceiling. He doesn't put you over the hump, and he's going to choose not turning the ball over, giving you a chance to really threaten defenses down to him. All right. So truly the last one, and I'll let you. you run. So we've talked here about the league, not just the Redskins of the Chiefs or Alex Smith or Dwayne Haskins here. Do you have a hunch on a team that will surprise in 2019?

Yeah, and I don't know. In some circles, this is like very chalky in other circles. It's like overly contrarian. I don't know where you stand or where your listener stand on this right now, but I think the Arizona Cardinals are going to be, I think they could win, I think they could win eight, nine games this year. I think. think that everyone in the NFC West actually is very good, but I think the Cardinals are going to improve a lot. I think, first of all, when you look at just objectively forget about whatever you think of the Air Raid, whatever you think of Kyle and Murray, the Cardinals won three wins, three games

last year. The average team over the last 15 years that has won three games in one year, the next year they win an average of six and a half. So the team, a team white the Cardinals, just natural regression, you know, more than it doubles their win total. But I think that with the quarterback that they have in Kaan Murray, if he's able to stay healthy, I mean, when I look at them play,

I see a little bit of Russell Wilson in them, or a lot of Russell Wilson in them actually. You know, I think that they went up and they got a cornerback to play opposite Patrick Peterson. You know, they have, they made, you know, modest improvements to their offensive line. I don't think it's going to be great, but I think you're going to

minimize how bad it is because you're going to spread defenses out. You're going to give David Johnson, who, by the way, you know, aside from the one year he missed with the wrist injury, had played all 16 games, has scored double-digit touchdowns in three of his four years of his career. You know, he's a superstar waiting to happen. You made some really good pictures in the draft.

You still have pieces on defense. You have a top-fike cornerback. I think this is a team that could easily go from, you know, three and 13 to nine in seven. Like, I don't think that's a big, I don't think that's a crazy thing to see from them. I think the toughest thing for them is that they play in a division where I think, you know, even the 49ers are very good if they get Genito Rapuo back.

I think the Seahawks, you can never count them out. You know, people didn't want it to do that last year. And so I think that the only thing about that division is that a lot of those teams might kind of knock each other off within the division and there will be a lot of eight and eight. But I think that from a talent standpoint and from an organizational standpoint, I really like what the Cardinals are doing. And in the AMC, I really like with the builders.

I think that they're another team that's going to go under the radar, but they have consistently overperform. And they're good. And they look really good defensively, especially if Oliver turns into something. It's funny because you mentioned the Giants, and I thought last year the Giants had a chance to be a good football team before the season started. And the truth of the matter is, I think I would have felt the same way about the

giants going into 2019 if they hadn't started trading everybody, you know, because they actually played some pretty good football in the second half the season, you know, last year. And I, you know, however you feel about Eli Manning, that football team was a lot more competitive in the second half of the season. I think they may have gone four and four or, you know, maybe four and three down the stretch, something like that. I forget, they had a terrible game against Tennessee, but almost every other game they had was a winnable game for them in the second half of the season. But then, you know, they've gotten rid of so many players. Look, I really appreciate it.

This was really interesting. For people that want to read the story that I read that got me interested in calling Chris to have them on the show, go to the Action Network.com or follow Chris on Twitter at Chris Raybon, R-A-Y-B-O-N. Chris, thanks so much. Thanks for having to have me, Kevin. I enjoyed that conversation with Chris Raybon. We'll have him back on. You know me.

I'm not big into using predictive modeling for gambling purposes. But the story that he wrote was really interesting. And it sort of fed into the gut feel that I had when we were talking about this, I don't know, during the season or during the playoffs where I said, you know what, Alex Smith, I'm sure, was a nice guy and a good mentor for Patrick Mahomes. But after watching Mahomes play, I don't think that most people would doubt that he could had done that in his first year as well. A quick word about launch workplaces. Then we'll wrap it up. Launch workplaces in Bethesda. Brand new fully furnished offices, conference rooms, co-working desks,

high speed internet. They've got a cafe, free parking and plenty of it. Get more work done today by moving your office to launch workplaces in Bethesda. Call today for an exclusive free two day trial, 240-86714 or go to launchworkplaces.com. That's 240-86714 or launchworkplaces.com. And by the way, they have other locations around town. Real quickly, Tom Haberstro or Haberstraw from NBC Sports, he's an NBA insider. He wrote a story that suggested that it's possible

that LeBron could get traded for Ben Simmons and LeBron could end up in Philadelphia. just we'll leave you with that. I don't even know what to make of it. If LeBron goes from L.A. to Philadelphia after all the L.A., you know, all of the L.A. hype, the Laker hype, and now he's going to end up in a Philadelphia uniform. Man, Philadelphia, you certainly cannot, you know, criticize their lack of trying over the years. I'm surprised, by the way, their coach is coming back.

All right. Thanks to Aaron. thanks to Chris Raybon. Have a great day. Kooley will be in studio with me tomorrow.