The Kevin Sheehan Show - Thom's Skins' Season Pick + Kevin's Super Bowl Pick

Episode Date: September 5, 2019

Kevin and Thom opened with the thing that would surprise them the most about the upcoming Redskins' season. Then it was Nats-Braves before getting to Thom's Redskins' season record prediction. Kevin finished up with his NFC and Super Bowl predictions. <p> </p><p>Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices">podcastchoices.com/adchoices</a></p> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You want it. You need it. It's what everyone's talking about. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Now here's Kevin. You're listening to The Sports Fix. Yep, he's here. That guy. Aaron's here also. And it's the last show before the NFL season begins. Because tonight, Tommy, we get the NFL back, finally. And we get it back in a big way. Packers and Bears. Not a bad game to start the season with. It's the NFL. 100th anniversary. They've gone away from the Super Bowl champion opening up this Thursday night game, and they've gone with a longstanding rivalry. In fact, I believe that Packers Bears is the longest standing rivalry, although... But they weren't the Bears when they played back in 1921. They were the Stalys. Yeah. Okay, you can't go wrong with tradition. I don't think.

Yeah, probably not. I actually think that the Bears, Cardinals, the two franchise, The Staley's became the Bears. Yes. Right? And the other Chicago Cardinals became the Arizona Cardinals. It may actually be the longest running rivalry in terms of the first time they played. But Packers Bears, no one's going to want Cardinals Bears to open up the season. Although actually, you know what?

If Kyler Murray had been in the opener tonight, it would have been somewhat interesting to watch. How are you? I'm doing great. Good. Doing great. This is also the last time we'll be together before the Redskins play on. Sunday. And we're going to get your season prediction. We'll get your prediction for the game on Sunday. We've got other things to do. I gave out my NFC picks yesterday. I'll give out my NFC picks today,

which will include getting to the Super Bowl winner. I want a couple of NFL predictions from you today also. We should talk about Nat's Braves, a rather important series. Yes. But I wanted to tell you that on my way up here, because you've been here for a while waiting for me to show up. And hopefully, you were fed well because Mama Lucia's came through as they often do. A gift from the gods. David, you know, dropped Mama Lucia's off or somebody from Mama Lucia's dropped to Mama Lucia's off. We've got pizza. We've got other things and it's really, really good. Seems like you've enjoyed it. Yes, as you can tell by the mess on your table. The mess on the table. But I was waiting for the elevator to come upstairs. And this, swear to God, two dudes hanging out down in that,

you know, where that second elevator to come up to here. Yes. Two guys hanging out by the door into that remodeling company. Yeah. When they're having the following conversation. The only difference in this team, the only place it got worse is at left tackle if Trent doesn't show up. Everywhere else, they are either the same or better than they were last year. And the other guy said, well, what about quarterback?

He said, well, you know, Case Keenham and Dwayne Haskins, you know, there's some questions. around the quarterback, but it might be with Case Keenum a better situation than it was last year with Alex Smith. This is the conversation. I'm listening to at the elevator. You know what? I can believe all this because I can believe that Redskins fans have talked them into the, talk themselves into the notion that they're no worse off with Case Keenum at quarterback than they were with Alex Smith. Well, I actually do believe that. Well, you know what, if that's the case, then Bruce Allen got hoodwinked, absolutely hoodwinked last year by trading for Alex Smith and then giving him the huge contract extension. Yeah.

When he's basically, according to Redskins fans, Case Keenham. I was not in favor of the contract extension. I was not against the trade. They needed a quarterback. They, and you pointed this out, and I think this had a lot. to do with it. They needed to save face, you know, after the bungling of the cousins situation. And look, nobody knew in the moment a year ago that Minnesota was going to go from an NFC championship team to not making the playoffs. Kirk actually had a decent year. We've gone through that,

but he wasn't good enough in big spots. There was the feeling a year ago, look out if Minnesota ends up in the Super Bowl. And Bruce Allen, and Bruce Allen in the Redskins had had a feeling that they better have somebody here that can actually play the position. And they gave up a lot for him. I didn't have a problem with the trade. I had a problem with the contract extension. Let me just finish the conversation that I overheard. So the other guy said, no, no, no, no.

They're not any better at quarterback. I mean, Case Keenham is not a good quarterback, and Dwayne Haskins is going to be a rookie, and that's going to be the deciding factor. And then I heard the following from the one guy. Jay Gruden is the most underrated coach in the NFL. Oh my God. I didn't have the heart to like jump into the conversation because the elevator had then just arrived.

And I got on the elevator because I'm running late and we got to get this show done. And I, because I was over, I was at the radio station today, a lot of traffic coming over. Nobody cares about my situation. I don't want to sound like Chris Russell here and tell you all the reasons I was late for the show. but when I heard that, I just had this big grin and I'm like, this is what I'm going to open with. This is the story that I got to tell Tommy the most underrated coach in the NFL, Jay Gruden. Unbelievable. It is unbelievable. It's unbelievable how the power it will co-ed. It really is. You know, he's not a terrible coach. No, he's not. He's a middle of the pack coach.

That's what he is. He may be a good offensive coordinator. He's Norv Turner. No, Norv was a better offensive coordinator than Jay. Okay, but it's the same concept. Yeah. The guy promoted to a position that he really can't handle. I mean, being a head coach is more than just drawing up the first 15 plays that your team is going to take. Right. And he's been lacking in those areas.

I mean, just ask every team leader who gets cut by this team. I know. What they think about Jay Gruden. Look, Jay is a good guy. Jay is a good offensive mind. North Turner, good guy, good offensive mind. Jay can design a pass offense. Jay knows football. Jay is not, you know, a top half of the league head coach. He is somewhere, I think I've said this before, he's somewhere between 16 and 22.

Somewhere in that range, not much higher. We don't need to go through the whole list, and all of you are now thumbing through the list of coaches. And there are a lot of new coaches this year. So this year, if you strike all of the new coaches, he might be 14 or 15 or 16, somewhere in that range. Listen, ESPN's Lewis Riddick posted a few days ago who he thinks, I think the top 10 coaches are. Maybe it was top five or top five or top 10. Jay Gruden was not on the list. You know who was?

Who? Doug Peterson. He was on the list. Oh, there's no doubt. Doug Peterson is in that conversation right now. Redskins are 10 point underdogs now, Aaron. That line has gone to 10. All right.

I want to just quickly do the Nats because this is one of the biggest regular season series they've ever had as an organization. They have not had a September meaningful three or four games set with a team with playoff stakes, playoff implications, division-penant implications in their history in Washington. It's going to get overshadowed by the first weekend of football in places like Washington, and maybe even in Atlanta. But I look at it as they're pretty safe for the wild card right now. They've got a healthy lead on the second wild card spot. It's like six games over Philadelphia. You'd have to really you know, come down the stretch, sub-500 with Philadelphia

or somebody below them lighting it up down the stretch to lose one of those two wild cards. Look, I think you're a little bit too worked up about the Brave series. They're not going to catch the Braves. They're too far behind. The Braves would have to collapse for the Nats to catch them at this point.

How many games back would they need to be right now for you to call this a really big series? I'd say maybe four games. Okay. You know, not seven games, where they are. It's crazy. And I know they played them again.

And they played them again next weekend and home. They played three games against the Braves at home. What you don't, I think a lot of fans have falling into the security of, okay, you know, we'll be a wild card. And what you don't want, though, is to be the second wild card team. You don't want to play that wild card game on the road. Not that they have a huge, you know, home field advantage. Just if you're a Nats fan,

you'd like to have at least one playoff game at home this year. And, I mean, I think it'd be disappointing to everybody if they wound up playing that wild card game in someplace other than that's part. Yeah, because right now it would be more likely than not at Wrigley Field, where the last time they had a playoff game at Wrigley Field, Strasbourg came up massively to force a fifth and deciding game in that playoff series a few years back. All right.

I just don't have high expectations. I'm many expectations at all of them catching the Braves. If they win three out of four, all right? So if they were to win three out of these four games and they're five back coming off of this, you know, they've got hopes. If they win any, I mean, a split, they're done. You know, losing three out of four or getting swept, they're done, obviously. If they win three out of four or somehow were to sweep the Braves,

which I don't anticipate, the Braves have won six in a row in 14 and 60. The Braves are good. They're really good. But if somehow they were to win three out of four or, you know, miraculously sweep them, you're talking about a legitimate pennant race. Now, Atlanta has Philadelphia six times, and then they've got the giants who aren't playing great anymore. They've got the Royals. They finish at the Mets.

But this, I'll grant you that, you know, seven games back does not make like a vital, crucial, September series. I guess it's just the first time that they've had one in September that's been anywhere near this important. Yes, and it's a shame because as well as they've played that they're not closer, but it's because Atlanta's been so good. So to me, if you're going on the road to play one of the best teams in baseball and the Braves and you come away with a split, you should be happy. Yeah, I mean, Look, if they play 500 ball the rest of the way, they're going to have a wild card. They could probably play sub-500 ball and still have a pretty good chance of grabbing one of the two wild card spots.

You know, I look at the postseason possibilities, you know, you throw the Scherzer we know out there for a wild card game. And maybe it's Corbyn or Strassberg by the time you get there, who knows? But if you were to win a wild card game, you got a really difficult, it's baseball. Anything can happen. It's best of five. But to face that Dodgers left-handed lineup primarily with not enough lefties right now that we know of that can get people out consistently, that on paper is not a great matchup. Terrible matchup. Although the Nats do have, you know, some explosive offense now that we weren't talking about a month ago when they were playing well.

Like they're really offensively explosive compared to the other teams in the nationally. Anyway, I'm excited about it. I'm curious. Like tonight you've got a football game on and you got the Nats on. I'm going to really be into watching the Nats. I've got to do the Channel 4 thing that we do, that air Sunday morning Redskins Showtime, record that. But I'm going to be flipping back and forth.

I'd love to see them somehow, you know, win tonight, win tomorrow night. Now you're talking about, wow, if they can go into the weekend and win Saturday and Sunday, you're four back. You've got a lot of momentum. Yes, you do. But these are the two teams that are playing along with the Dodgers and the Yankees and the Astros, better than anybody in baseball. Yes.

You know, the Nats right now are a chic, dark horse pick to get to the World Series now. You know that. Like their odds have been creeping, you know, towards, hey, Aaron, I don't know what they are now. They're at least 20% better than they were even two weeks ago in terms of their odds of winning the World Series. They've got to be the third pick, right, to win it all in the National League behind the Braves and the Dodgers. I would think they're in front of the Cardinals at this point to win the World Series. Well, look, and remember at the beginning of the year, the Nats were to pick by most observers to win the National League and go to the World Series,

in part because most people recognize they had an extremely talented roster. And it's proven to be at the offense, at least even better than I think what everyone expected. I don't know if anyone expected Juan Soto to have such a great sophomore season or Victor Robley's to emerge as quickly as he did. Right. You know, I keep going back to those two guys. Those two guys are the difference. The difference in everything.

How about the fact that with Eaton out, you're going to get Cabrera in the lineup full time for a little bit, it looks like. I just pulled it up too. Aaron's looking at me. I've got, on my site, the Nats and Cardinals are both 18 to 1 to win the World Series. Yeah, I was looking at NL. Penadodes,

tied for third with the Cardinals, both 8 to 1. Yeah, tied for third. The prohibitive favorite to win the World Series really it's the Astros and the Dodgers, you know, and then the Yankees. The Yankees are like five to one. The Astros and Dodgers are both in that two to two and a half to one range. Anyway, all right, I want to start the football discussion today with a question that I asked callers today on the radio show,

which I'm going to ask you. I want you to fill in the blank on the following sentence. I'd be most surprised if, fill in the blank, happened this season regarding the Redskins. I'd be most surprised if, blank, fill in the blank, this happened during this season. What would you be most surprised about this year with the Redskins? Let me give you an example or two.

Okay. I'd be very surprised if Dwayne Haskins doesn't start at least eight games this year. I would be very surprised if that doesn't happen. in part because I just don't believe that this is going to be a real good football team this year. So worst case, they're two and six, three and five, and they decide the quarterback play's not great, the offensive play, let's go to them. The Eagles are already seven in one or six and two. The Cowboys are six and two. We ain't going to the playoffs. And I think we see Haskins for at least eight starts. I think it could be more, but I'd be surprised if Dwayne Haskins doesn't start at least eight games.

I've got a couple of more as you're thinking about it. You want me to give you another one? No, I got mine. It's consistent with what I've said all along. And, you know, it may alter slightly if and when Trent Williams returns to play. This may alter a little bit, but I'm going to stick with it. I'd be most surprised if the Redskins quarterback who finishes the season is on the roster right now. Yeah, you've said that for a while.

Well, that's a good one. Yeah. I mean, I'd be, and most people think I'm crazy when I say that. I've had people call the radio station to say that's insane. Well, it's because you're predicting that, you know, three quarterbacks get hurt. Yes. You're predicting that three quarterbacks get hurt. Only because I watched it last year.

I know. That's true. Yeah, you did. I mean, we saw broken leg, broken leg. And then Josh Johnson. Well, Mark Sanchez first. Yeah, but he didn't get hurt. He didn't get hurt.

He was just brutally awful. He suffered from not able to play NFL football. But Josh Johnson, at the, the end of the year was hurt. He had to have postseason surgery. Right. Ankle surgery. Think of another one because I'm going to give you my second one. Okay. Ready? I'd be surprised if Jay Gruden actually gets fired in season.

It's not been the move for Dan Snyder since he did it with Norv Turner. There's actually not a lot to gain from it. You know, you're not going to hire your replacement in December. You may hire that replacement the day after the season ends, but you can fire that coach on the day that the season ends and hire the new guy simultaneously. There's nothing that prevents you from doing that. His odds, by the way, for being fired continue. There continues to be even more separation between Jay Gruden and the field for the first coach fired.

Jay Gruden right now is plus 275 to be the first coach fired during the season. The second favorite is no coach gets fired. And then the third favorite is Bill O'Brien, a plus one. thousand. So Jay is 2.75 to 1 and Bill O'Brien's 10 to 1. Jay is a massive favorite. No coach being fired is 8 to 1 is a massive favorite to be fired in midseason. That's about as good, as strong a possibility Vegas is telling you, of a coach being fired in season as you'll ever see before the season starts. I don't think it'll happen. I don't think it'll have. It's not as that, it's not Stan Snyder's M.O. It hasn't been.

He didn't do it with Jim Zorn. He tried to get Jim Zorn to quit. But, you know, Soren looked at, Zorn's wife looked at those paychecks and said, I'm not going anywhere. You're not going anywhere. Right. Let me piggyback on that. I'd be surprised if the guy who replaces him isn't Todd Bulls. Wow.

Where'd you come up with Todd Bulls? I'd be thrilled about that, but why would you come up with Todd Bowles? Because they had off-season discussions with him. About the defensive coordinator position. Yeah. Yeah. And I'm betting that some of those discussions, included, just sit tight.

There's going to be a head coaching job here for you. Maybe. Here's the problem with Bulls. He's going to have an awful season defensively. Yeah, but that won't, Snyder. It won't stop Snyder. He's fixated with him. Yeah, but the public reception will be a little,

you know, it'll be down. Which actually might be even more of a reason because nobody else will be going after him. Yeah, he's fixate on him. Plus, I think the public disappointment will be overshadowed by the fact that he's a former Redskin. people will love that. Oh, I don't know about that.

I hope that wouldn't be the reason. I actually like Todd Bowles a lot. I think if they had kept him in New York, it would have worked out for him now that they finally have a quarterback there. Or at least the perception is that they have a quarterback in Darnold there. That's bold. I mean, mark that one down, Aaron. You know, if they end up hiring Todd Bowles to be their next head coach, you heard it here first. You know, on September 5th, Tommy's saying that Todd Bowles is going to be the next head coach.

I think actually right now the odds on favorite. to be the new head coach in 2020 is Kevin O'Connell. Because assuming that O'Connell is the guy that really is developing Dwayne Haskins and there's progress there, maybe it's Jay that ends up, you know, developing the relationship with Haskins. But you remember this too. And I know that, you know, people are out there saying, God, would you guys stop bashing them?

It is hard now for Dan Snyder and Bruce Allen, if Bruce Allen's still here, wouldn't be nearly as hard if he weren't to attract, you know, a proven coach that might be available. Yes. And by the way, the up-and-comers, whomever they are by the time we get to January 2020, will have better options, you know, so you're going to be left, as the Redskins were in 2014, with, you know, a guy that really not a lot of people wanted to be their head coach in Jay Gruden. Mike Zimmer was the assistant that people were clamoring for at a Cincinnati. It wasn't Jay Gruden.

Gruden was a candidate. Gruden was thought to be a potential head coach. But the Redskins, the last two times, they've been in search mode. Jim Zorn turned out to be the head coach. And then it was, well, Shanahan. They were in search mode there. And that was a boatload of money. Yes.

But they won't attract their top two choices, more likely. Probably not. The other thing that I had on my, I'd be surprised list is I'd be surprised if the defense isn't significantly improved. They finished 20th in the NFL and DVOA ratings, all right, which is a better measurement of sort of their overall defenses compared to the rest of the league. The yards allowed stat that everybody uses is not a real good measuring stick of how good you were defensively. I like some of those simple statistics. I'm not going analytical on you here, I promise. I like things like rush defense and average yards per rush offensively,

average yards per rush given up a loud turnover margin, obviously. But the Redskins were not the great defense that a lot of people seem to think they were. Boy, that has been some sort of level of revisionist history, hasn't it? That the defense was so awesome last year. It wasn't. Yeah. And the Giants, the 40 points. the Giants scored should be a reminder

in two and a half quarters. But it was improved from 2017. Yes. And it was significantly improved from 2016. And I'd be surprised if it doesn't take a major jump this year. From 20th to somewhere approaching a top 10

defense. And we don't need statistics. We'll be able to see it on the field. We'll be able to see it week by week. So anyway, that's my other one. I'd be surprised if they aren't significantly improved defensively somewhere jumping from 20th to somewhere in that 10 to 12 range. Let me piggyback. I'd be disappointed too if they're not.

Well, let me piggyback on that. Is it a Greg Minusky? I'd be surprised? Yes. I knew it. By the way, isn't it interesting how I can predict almost everything you're about to say? I think people are going to be disappointed in a Redskins defense run by a defense coordinator who they tried all winter to replace.

And also without at least two coaches from last year's team who basically couldn't get out of Dodge quick enough, replaced by two coaches who were out of football last year. Greg Mnusky is the one who's going to get fired during the season as the defense winds up being a major disappointment. And Rob Ryan replaces him as defensive coordinator. So is that, I'd be surprised if Mnusky doesn't get fired in season. Rob Ryan replaces him. There you go.

See, I don't mess around with mine. I wonder if it would be Tom Sulla or Ryan. Boy, I mean, they just have so much depth on their coaching staff. Yes, they do. All right, I have another question for you. You know, we touched on this, I think, or maybe it was when you were out sick. The top 100 lists on ESPN and on NFL.com, the top 100 players. Not one Redskin was on the top 100 players on the ESPN list.

and the only player in the top 100 on the NFL network list was Trent Williams, who came in at 81. Who are the best players on this team? Like right now, if I asked you to name the three best players on the team, who would you name? I would name Trent Williams. Okay, that's fair enough. He's not on the team right now. Let's leave him off. Okay.

I would name Matt Ionitis. As one of the top three players in the team? Yes, I think he's better than Jonathan Allen or Duran Payne. Okay. I would name Ryan Carrigan and I would name Landon Collins. Okay. You know, part of what I wanted to do here was also say, I don't know that the Redskins have an obvious, you know, a player,

like a true player that would have been considered for the top 100, hence they're not in the top 100. Trent Williams is an A player. Yes. But he's not on the roster right now. do they even have an A player? Matt Ionitis is, in my opinion, not one of the three best players. I do like him.

I think he's a very good player. I think he's better than the guys you're in love with on the defensive line. I think that Brandon Sheriff would be one of the top three players on the team without Trent Williams on it. I actually believe that Adrian Peterson is probably one of the top three players. Apparently, the coach doesn't agree with you. I understand that. but that's because they're going young and he's got a lot of faith.

Going to get really ugly. I know. You know what? You got to talk about that because I forgot you weren't with me yesterday when we did this. And I would probably put John Allen on that list as well. Duran Payne to me is the most intriguing player to watch this year because I have a feeling that it's going to be very obvious by the midway point in the season that he's one of the top three players. I can't say that now definitively.

but he looks different, like physically, build-wise, athletically. Who's the strongest guy in the team? Probably ionitis. Yes, he is. And this is what you need to remember about strong people. They're more useful and they're harder to kill. It depends on what you're using. But so anyway, that would be sort of my top three with pain and Collins sort of on the outside looking in, you know, of that top three.

All right, the Adrian Peterson thing. That report came from Jason Bishop. Yes, on the Chumpings. On your station. On 106-7. And I don't have any reason to believe that it wasn't true. Let's assume for a moment that it is true that Jay Gruden and the rest of the organization had an argument. He wanted to release Adrian Peterson, and they said, no, you're not allowed to release Adrian Peterson.

And even take it back to when they re-signed him as a free agent. and consider the following to be fact that Jay never wanted to resign him in the first place. This is a big assumption that it is true, the report. What do you think? Well, I think Jay's comments yesterday, I think it was yesterday, when asked about Geis and how he was so firm in his support of Geis, and like there was no plan B even to consider, for Jay, that's a bit unusual. I mean, to be so particularly firm in their decision to go with Geis. And it was almost like, you know, like he had a little personal thing going on here.

He's sick and tired of hearing about Adrian Peterson in the building. So when he got a chance publicly to talk about Geis, he was firm 100% in Darius Geis's corner as their number one back going into the season. Just to be clear, and by the way, I agree with you on that. he was asked if Adrian Peterson would have a lesser role. Why didn't somebody ask him point blank in the press conference yesterday if they, if Adrian Peterson was being discussed as a potential player? I mean, he wouldn't have answered it, but I think it could have been asked. Do you agree?

Yeah. He was asked whether or not Adrian Peterson would have a lesser role in the offense with the emergence of Geis and he said, we'll see, we'll see. I think initially we get going. I think you have to start with the first back and you start. the game on offense, you start the game with Darius Geis. From there, we'll see where it goes. I'm anxious to see him play.

He's shown us that he's full go. He's had a good training camp. He's had good practices. He's into it mentally. And he goes on and on about Darius Geis. This is not a guy who he sounds like he's going to be pulling out every third or fourth running play and replaced with somebody else. He basically said, you know, he wants to see him get going.

And like I said, I wrote about this a couple weeks ago. I related to the Trent. Williams thing, but it applies to this as well. Adrian Peterson is a financial bind. He, according to a report USA Today, he needs a lot of money. And that means he needs to play and carry the ball to get some money. Which according to Jason Bishop at 1067 the fan, this is why Jay wanted to move on from him because Adrian's going to be in his ear all season long saying get me in the game. Yeah. Like he was in Arizona and like he was a bit with Sean Payton in New Orleans. I went back and looked at the early season carry totals just to see if there's any indication about what the backup running back's

going to get. In the opener last year, Adrian Peterson at Arizona went 26 carries 96 yards. Chris Thompson as their third down back, but also change of pace, had five carries. And Rob Kelly, who was on the team and healthy at that point, had three carries in a game, by the way, that was a blowout. Yes. You know, then in which, Week 2 against Indianapolis in a game, by the way, that they got behind early in and then threw it a ton to try to come back. Peterson had 11 carries for 20 yards, and Rob Kelly just had one carry. Chris Thompson had four carries, but they could have been third down carries. I can't remember what they were. But the point here is that Jay's not given that backup

running back a lot of carries, although I would also suggest that Adrian Peterson is the backup to Darius Geis is different than Rob Kelly. Fat Rob is the backup to Adrian Peterson. But I agree with you what you said, that it's not just what he said yesterday or the day before about the offense being, you know, and the carries going through Geis. It's been all of the talk about Samaji P.Rine for a while. You know, going back to OTAs and minicamp, he was really building up P.Rine, really talked about P.Rine is having quite the OTA sessions.

And then when they cut P.Rine the other day and he got signed by Cincinnati, he said, Samajie is going to do well there, almost to say, you're going to see, we should have kept Samajie and cut Adrian. I do think that there's a chance that there's some truth to this thing. Well, you know, that's kind of interesting, and that shows something that should be alarming to Redskins fans. If Jay Gruden, the head coach, wanted to keep a backup running back, he should have been able to keep a backup running back. If he has so little power. I said that yesterday. that he couldn't keep, you know, Samanjay Pryne on the roster.

That's a problem. He should have final say over the roster. Yes, and particularly, my God, the backup running back? Unless, Tommy, unless there were significant, you know, cap considerations, which in this particular instance, there really aren't. Right. So I agree with you. And I also, on the flip side would say, you know what, Jay, you're a head football coach in the NFL.

Part of your job is to manage some of these big personalities. You know, Darius Geis had a torn ACL last year, had a leg injury at LSU, he's injury prone, and Adrian Peterson in the three carries that he had in the preseason looked like he did last year. Yes, he did. So we need a backup plan, and the backup plan should be AP. He signed for basically a song, and it shouldn't be Samajai P-Rine. So, you know, manage him. You know, part of that I understand too.

I want to get to your prediction on this season here. have anything else on Adrian Peterson? No. Do you have anything else on D. Hall going from one week saying Trump Williams didn't coming back to a week later saying that Trump Williams is going to be back sooner than later? Well, let me just say, like, I don't know anything about what Trent Williams is going to do. I have no knowledge, okay? But if you're an outside observer looking at this, it would seem like that the same thing that's, that was obvious to a lot of us, once the Houston trade window closed, I think they looked around and said, well, there's no place for me. There's no trade partners.

I agree with that. I really am going to be stuck sitting here missing paychecks because the Redskins don't really have any obvious trade partner with at this point unless somebody drastically gets hurt. And am I willing to gamble on that to sit here and wait for somebody to get hurt? And who knows, maybe the Houston window was the one Trent wanted all along. I think there's a chance that that's true. So I think when that when that. Bruce should open that damn window.

Yes. He should have left that open, that window for them to climb through and say, hey, here's what we got for your guy. Yeah. But I hope he listened. He didn't because he wants to win this. And he is going to win this in that sense. I mean, Trent's could probably have to come back with his tail between his legs.

And it's going to be real. Look, maybe I'm overestimating how embarrassing. will be. But when all is said and done, if Tread Williams comes back, he's going to look like a fool. He's going to look like a child that he threw this tantrum. I mean, he could have accomplished

the holdout without the whole slandering of the Redskins medical staff. He could have done the same thing to have brought that into it. No, because he would have looked worse from the jump, had there not been this other issue that created this impression

that he couldn't trust them and couldn't trust them to take care of him medically. I mean, I think fans are numb to holdouts. You might be right. But fans would have been much more frustrated with Trent holding out with two years left on his deal without the perceived extenuating circumstance. Well, I think he's going to look like a fool when he comes back. He's going to look like a child who threw a tantrum and got called on it.

I don't, if the Redskins, and we may never know this, if the Redskins turned down a blockbuster offer from Houston for Trent Williams, I don't think that they will have won this by standing their ground, digging in their heels and waiting for him to see the Houston opportunity go away and the prospect of losing game checks, which he's going to lose one this week, who's not back this week, if he does end up coming back, if ultimately the Redskins could have gotten a boatload for him, I think that the jury's still out on whether or not they won this thing.

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Not too good. Weren't the worst in the league. Weren't the worst in the league. Certainly weren't the best. Five and 11. I think that the offense is going to be worse than last year. I think they're going to struggle right from the start. I think they're going to find themselves playing from behind,

and they're not going to have any ability to be able to do that. They didn't have the ability to do that last year. When they won, they usually took the lead early and then control the game. They're not going to be in that situation this year, which is going to put – and I think the special teams aren't going to be as good as they were last year. I think the defense, while maybe improved, is going to have more pressure on them this year. I don't think they'll be able to withstand the pressure. I think they'll start to fray as the season goes on.

And I think, like I said, I'm still sticking with the fact that the offensive line, Trent Williams or not, will not be able to protect any of their quarterbacks, and they'll have a quarterback who's not even on the roster come game 16. Do you want to even predict who that quarterback might be? No. Okay. All right, five and 11. That's going to be right in line with, I think, most of the players.

predictions about the Redskins season this year. Five and 11 is probably within a game either way of what most of the predictions will be this year. I have not seen them picked any higher than third in any preseason predictions so far. You want to stick around while I do my AFC picks? Yes. Okay. Because we're doing a shorter show today for a number of reasons.

We both have commitments. Aaron's got a commitment. By the way, tomorrow's show will include some college football. and my Redskins season prediction, as well as a preview of Skins, Eagles, smell test, et cetera. I wanted to mention just a couple of things as people get ready to watch their first NFL game. There have been some meaningful rule changes. First of all, the big one that got all the headlines in the offseason is being able to use replay, challenge, the challenge system on pass interference calls, either called or not called off of the Saints Rams thing.

I've mentioned this many times. I think this is going to be problematic in the final two minutes of a half or a game because it goes to the booth. It should have been a coach's challenge opportunity throughout the game for all 60 minutes, but it will go to the booth in the final two minutes of a half or a game or the game, and that's going to create, I think, many delays and a problem. There are too many passes, too much contact on pass plays, and every time a pass interference gets flagged in the final two minutes of a half, you're going to get a review on it.

So just remember that. Here's the other one I wanted to mention real quickly, the other rule change. You know how when Tommy there's excessive celebration after a touchdown? Yes. And they say 15-yard penalty, excessive celebration, it'll be enforced on the kickoff. Yeah. Well, now the team on defense that got scored on gets to choose. whether or not they want it enforced on the PAT or the kickoff.

If you score a late touchdown, down eight, trying to go for two to tie the game, and you get flagged for something stupid in the end zone, that two-point conversion is going to happen at the 17-yard line. Wow. That's a problem. Yeah. If I'm a coach, I am making sure that my team understands this rule, that we are not in a late-game situation on an exciting, you know, potentially game

tying play or it gives you a chance to tie where the stadium's going nuts and we're going nuts. If you do anything stupid, we're going to have near zero chance to tie the game because of where we'll be running the play from. Also, at the very end of a game, you know, down seven, let's just say, you score a touchdown and there's excessive celebration. Now the extra point's going to be a 48-yard extra point to tie the game. So you've got to be careful teams in the NFL. Carrie Lloyd could make that. I'm sorry? Carrie Lloyd could make that.

Carly. Carly Lloyd. I always called Carrie. Yeah, Carly Lloyd could make it. So one of those things, I bet early in the season, you're going to see that, and you're going to say, you know, it was 2720. Team scores, it's 2726. They get flagged for excessive celebration, eight seconds left in the game,

and the guy hooks the 48-yard extra point. Sounds like a Redskins lost to me. Which is stop it. That's, by the way, that's 15 yards for piling on. All right. I gave you yesterday my AFC picks. Many of you were very surprised that I ended up with the Denver Broncos in the AFC championship game. That's my big. Oh, my God. Oh, yeah. Oh, my God. You're so flacko. Unbelievable. No, it's much more about their defense. This is potentially the best defense in football with now an NFL quarterback with some talent, more talent on offense. And a defensive head coach. And a great defensive head coach in Vic Fangio.

So yesterday, I had the Chiefs over the Broncos in the AFC. Now let me give you my NFC picks. All right. Here they are, the NFC picks, which will lead us to who's going to face the Chiefs. Because I had the Chiefs over the Broncos in the AFC title game. The NFC East, the Cowboys and Eagles are both very good football teams on paper. They really are. hate to say it, but they really are.

And by the way, there's a massive difference really going into this season between Dallas and Philadelphia and then the bottom of the division, Washington and the Giants. There just is. There is from a quarterback standpoint. There is from a skill position standpoint. The Giants have some skill position players, you know, obviously with Seekwan Barkley. The offensive lines are better. The defenses are better.

In Philly's case, the coaching staff with Peterson and Schwartz is much better. And they've got, Philly's got the best quarterback situation in the division with Wence. I think Prescott is a good quarterback, but in the mold of put enough around him, and he can be really good. Yes. And I think that's what we've seen at times when they put a lot around him. They're going to fight it out for the division. They're both going to go 11 and 5. There's a late game at Lincoln Financial, second to last weekend of the season in Philly.

They win that game. That gives them the tie break. or advantage. I got the Eagles winning the division at 11 and 5. The Cowboys being a wild card at 11 and 5. I got the Giants at 7 and 9 improved. I'm not going to be surprised if the Giants are much better than people are thinking, and I'll save my Redskins prediction for tomorrow, but I think you can safely come to the conclusion that I do not have them in the postseason. And I don't. The NFC North is a brutal division. the NFC as a whole is so much better and deeper than the AFC.

In fact, I counted this morning, I think there are nine teams in the NFC, nine out of the 16, that if any one of those nine were in the Super Bowl, you wouldn't be that shocked. Dallas and Philadelphia in the NFC East, in the NFC North, Chicago, Minnesota, or Green Bay. In the south, the Saints are the Falcons, and in the West, the Seahawks are the Rams. I don't think anybody would say,

That's completely nuts. I agree. Deep, deep, deep, the NFC is. I got the Bears winning the NFC North. They've got defensive talent, I mean, with Jackson on the back, Khalil Mack in the front. You know, they're going to miss Vic Fangio as their coordinator. I like their offensive players. I love Anthony Miller as a wide receiver.

I think in this second year he's going to step up and be a big-time player. I really like the signing of Mike Davis. Now they also drafted David Montgomery from Iowa State. They're running back. And then you got Tark Cohen as well. But I think Davis is a guy that I would have thought about if I needed a running back in the off season. He's been, you know, in that Seattle mix the last few years. The Bears were 12 and 4 last year, lost a home playoff game, 10 and 6 this year because of the division and the schedule.

I just think the Bears will win it, though. I am not high, believe it or not, on Minnesota being a super. Super Bowl or an NFC Championship contender like a lot of people are. Something's not right there. I can't put my finger on it. It might be Kirk. It might be the offense that he was in. They are doing everything they can to ensure that he's got everything he needs.

Last year, they had a terrible offensive line and an offensive coordinator situation that didn't work. They had an offense that didn't work for him. Now they got some advice from Gary Kubiak. Stefanski's the offensive coordinator. They've got some players. They've improved their offensive line. their defense last year was inconsistent, better late.

I just don't know what it is, and I love Mike Zimmer too. I just don't have a great feeling about Minnesota. I think they're going to win nine games and be in the hunt for a wild card and be in the hunt for the division. I don't see them making this big leap this year. Nine and seven, no playoffs. Second place, Minnesota. Detroit's going to be much improved. Matt Stafford, I've been a fan of, a little bit of an off year, some injuries.

They don't have the greatest receivers. They're not terrible. You like Gala Day, right? Don't you a little bit, Aaron? Yeah, Gallaudet is solid. You know, he's solid. I'm a big carry-on Johnson fan. You know, Ty Johnson stuck on that final roster.

You predicted that. Aaron predicted that. Ty Johnson out of Maryland. Defensively, Detroit's pretty damn good. You know, and they're well coach defensively too, with obviously their head coach, Matt Patricia. I think they'll be improved at 8 and 8, and I got the Packers coming in last at 7 and 9.

You know, a lot of what the Packers will do will depend on Aaron Rogers, his health, et cetera. And the relationship he has with Matt, In the South, I'm rooting against the Saints as much as anybody in the NFL this year. What they did after that championship game, the whining, the suing, the legal action from all these fans and different groups. It's just the poorest of sports. Oh, come on. Oh, my God.

Justice. You still have some of these lawsuits that are being delayed or being looked at. Are you kidding me? It's a game. Justice. Oh, my God. It's the worst and the crying from Peyton and this pass interference replay rule. It's all bullshit.

Good, good, good. I'm rooting like hell for them to fail miserably. But they're too good to fail too much. I've got them winning the division at 11 and 5. But I have the Carolina Panthers. I like the Panthers this year. First of all, I've always been a fan of Ron Rivera. I know not everybody is.

There's a reason he's still there after all this time. It's because he's actually a pretty damn good coach. they have talent. The key, of course, for them is Cam Newton's health and how North Turner uses him. But I like that relationship a little bit. Cam Newton's got to stay healthy. If he does, he has, where's McCaffrey going in most fantasy drafts, Aaron? Top four. Got McCaffrey. They've got DJ Moore back in his second year. They got hopefully a healthy Greg Olson back. And they've got defensive talent. They've added to it. You know, Don Terry Poe, Gerald McCoy, to go,

was short with Keekeley. They've got a good football team. I think this is a year that Carolina makes a run. They're not going to win the division, but they're going to get to the postseason finishing second with a 10-and-6 record in the NFC South. Falcons are good, too. Another good football team.

I just think that the Panthers are going to end up being a little bit better. I got the Falcons at 8 and 8, and I got the Bucks at 4 and 12. Out West, here's my surprise in the NFC. Seattle wins the division. 114 and 1. No Sean McVeigh? 114 and 1 is the record I am predicting for them. A tie.

They're going to have a tie. They're going to tie the 49ers during the course of the season. Seattle's good. Okay, first of all, they've got Russell Wilson. Secondly, they are a well-coached team. Thirdly, they just added Jadavian Clowney to a team that already has Ziggy Ansah and Bobby Wagner and KJ. Wright. They got a chance to be good.

We know what their home field advantage is. I know they're hoping D.K. Metcalf, who slipped to the second round, ends up emerging with Tyler Lockett is another really good option at wide receiver because that's really where they've had some issues in recent years. I like Seattle to win the division because one of the teams that everybody assumes is going to finish with one of the four best. Right now, it's like Chiefs Patriot Saints Rams. Yes. Everybody's got them as like a top four. One of those teams will not make the playoffs. and I've got it being the L.A. Rams won't make the playoffs.

They'll finish 10 and 6, but they'll lose the tiebreaker with the Panthers. Seattle wins the division, Rams 10 and 6, 49ers, 6, 9, and 1, and the Cardinals 4 and 12. For whatever reason, Seattle and the 49ers, I think, have tied a couple times. Your wild cards, your division winners again, Philadelphia, Chicago, the Saints, and Seattle. Your top two seeds are going to be Seattle and Philadelphia. Cowboys and Panthers are the wild cards.

In the wild card round, I got the Cowboys over the Bears. I've got the Panthers over the Saints. In the upset, Panthers over the Saints. In the divisional round, I got the Seahawks over the Panthers, the Eagles over the Cowboys, and then I've got the Eagles over the Seahawks in the NFC championship game, winning in Seattle on the road, facing the Chiefs in a Super Bowl where you get Andy Reed and the protege.

Peterson and Doug Peterson and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Last year I was off them. Remember, I said not enough defense. This year they've added to their defense and you get Mahomes in year two as a starter. It's the Chiefs over the Eagles in Super Bowl 54. There you go, boys and girls. There you go, boys and girls. That's it for today.

Back tomorrow, do some college football, and I'll do smell test and all the NFL stuff. and my Redskins record prediction as well. Have a great day.