The Kevin Sheehan Show - Washington Draft Recap

Episode Date: April 28, 2026

Kevin with plenty on Washington's 2026 draft to start. He also talked about the passing of Redskins great Monte Coleman. Steve Suter jumped on with "film" analysis of the Commanders' five picks on Friday and Saturday. Warren Sharp-Sharp Football Analysis joined Kevin with his annual study of the draft based on selection value.   For all your football betting needs: DCRELOAD at MyBookie for a 50% Deposit Match   Right now, buy one prescription pair and get 20% off any additional prescription pairs at WarbyParker.com/[Sheehan   Chime is not just smarter banking, it is the most rewarding way to bank. Head to www.Chime.com/SHEEHAN. It only takes a few minutes to sign up.   So if you are looking to make Mother’s Day perfect, or just want to impress your friends and family with an epic meal next time you host, go to www.GOLDBELLY.com and get free shipping and 20% off your first order with promo code sheehan.   Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to www.Quince.com/SHEEHAN for free shipping and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Here's Kevin. Two guests on the show with me today, Steve Souter will do a film breakdown of the other five Washington draft choices. He did Sunny Stiles on Friday show.

It was really good if you want to go back and listen to it. He liked Sunny Stiles. After Steve on the show today, Warren Sharp from Sharp Football Analysis will be my kid. guest. The show's presenting sponsor is Windonation. If you need new windows, call them at 86690 Nation or head to Windonation.com and mention my name. They'll take really good care of you. So on the draft, I won't sugarcoat this. I think most of you know this about me when it comes to this past weekend. While I am a big fan of the event, I think it's highly entertaining,

especially the first round Thursday night. In this past Thursday night's first round, round was actually an exceptional three hours of entertainment and drama because we just didn't know how it was going to shake out after Mendoza at number one. I'm a big fan of some of the characters that are on these shows. Of course, Mel Kuiper for me and people of my age really made the draft popular. So I really enjoy the drama, the show, the entertainment value. I am a fan of that. I am not a fan of the people who think that they actually have it all figured out in terms of which teams did well versus those that didn't.

Nobody has a clue on which of these 32 NFL drafts will produce the best results. Now, there are interesting ways to determine whether or not a team got good value with where they picked players in this draft. And Warren Sharp is on the show today because Warren every year produces a study that identifies the teams that got the most value versus those that got the least value based on where the players were taken, you know, i.e. a player based on a collection of, mock drafts and big boards may have had kind of a consensus number of 81, you know, late in the third round. If that player got selected late in the fourth round at say pick number 120, well, the team got good value for that player based on this consensus of mock drafts and big boards. But a metric like that doesn't declare that the player will be good or bad. it just assesses the value of the pick based on a pre-draft consensus.

I don't mind assessing a draft based on the value of where they took the player. And by the way, when he joins me, when we get worn on the show, not next segment but following Steve, he's going to tell you that Washington, based on his study, did very well. but it's people like the following two emailers that drive me nuts this time of year. This from Marcus. Marcus writes, Kevin, Adam Peters gets a D for this draft, a wide receiver that can only play in the slot,

a pass rusher when they needed a corner, and a third string quarterback. Stiles saved Peters from a failing grade again. Well, thank God for Sonny Stiles. if not, Marcus would have had an F next to Adam Peters draft. And then this from Kevin P and Damascus, Kevin P. writes, the third draft was a charm for Adam Peters. He nailed it on styles, got an exceptional inside wide receiver,

depth at pass rusher, a starting center, and an RB running back that might start an obvious A plus for AP. By the way, those will be the only two grades you get on the show today. An A-plus and a D from Kevin P and Marcus. I saw something on, I think, Saturday morning, or maybe it was Sunday morning, where somebody went back and pulled grades from the day after drafts from years past. The one that I remember reading specifically is the 2012 Seattle Seahawks draft where they drafted Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Bruce Irvin, and I'm forgetting, who else?

That draft got a universal failing grade, maybe a D here or there. And that's the point here, is that nobody really knows. I'm not doing draft grades. I haven't done draft grades in several years. I think it's silly. I have opinions on players, you know that, and sometimes strong. opinions on players based on, you know, what they did in college and my memory of watching these players in college and doing in my own mind what they might be as pros. We all do that as fans,

but I recognize that the guys who paid, who get paid millions to do this get it wrong a lot more than they get it right. And they have a lot more information than I have. And they still get it wrong more than they get it right. I do have opinions on two of the players picked over the weekend in particular. The other three, not really opinions, but I'll share a thought or two anyway, but neither is like a super strong opinion like I had on Jaden Daniels two years ago. Again, there's just too much that we don't know to be sure of anything, the personal stuff, the, you know, the projected fit with the scheme,

the opportunity that the player is going to get based on who's already there. Sometimes it's the medical that we don't know. Teams know all of that and still get it wrong two-thirds of the time. So no grades. But here are some opinions. The first opinion I have on the weekend as a whole is not specific to the draft itself. It is kind of an overall off-season opinion, which I have shared already, but I will emphasize again today.

And that is that this offseason is one of those off seasons for our team where the team's clear priorities matched up with ours or most of ours. You know, it doesn't always happen that way. You know, sometimes what we think the offseason should be about, the team doesn't feel the same way. There is no doubt that at the end, of this past season when many of us said, oh my God, they've got to fix the defense. I think my first number was they need five new starters and another three contributors on defense.

I mean, they need a lot of new bodies and they've got to get faster and more athletic and younger. Well, you know what? The defense is going to have six new starters. Eight new contributors. I mean, settle, Owe, Chenal, Chasin, Cross, Stiles. You know, that's six. Robertson's going to certainly be in the rotation more likely than not.

It's a slot corner maybe. Menehue is a guy that they may have a hard time keeping off the field. I mean, there you go. Six new starters, eight new contributors. You know, younger, faster. And look, I don't know if every player they got is going to be better than maybe something that they had. They're also going to be getting Dorn's Armstrong back from an injury. Dietrich Wise resigned. You know, Jebond Kinlaw is coming back.

Duran Payne's coming back. Mikey Sanra still's coming back. Trey Amos is going to be coming off an injury. You know, Jeremy Reeves, who had a hell of a year last year coming back. Kwan Martin. I mean, this defense should be better than. the defense was last year and the year before. They have more team speed defensively. They are younger defensively. They're more athletic defensively. And some of these players are just

flat out better than whatever Washington had on the field. Will it come together from a scheme standpoint? From a fit standpoint, will they play well together? Who knows? Will it stay healthy, the defense? All of those are unknowns. But overall, this off season, has produced a lot of new, and the new is primarily on the defensive side of the ball. But by the way, on the offensive side of the ball, got to get a pass-catching tight end if it's not going to be Ertz. Added that and chig. You know, you could really use some running back room help added two and then another one in the draft. You definitely need wide receiver room help.

Diami Brown, Van Jefferson, bringing back. Trelon Burks and then drafting Antonio Williams and, you know, the big unknown between now and the opener and we will be on watch for Brandon Ayuk. We are now officially on Brandon Ayuk watch, but that's the last domino to fall if it's going to fall. I would bet that it does. I would bet that he does sign here, eventually get released and sign here. But overall, the offseason's been incredibly busy, you know, very much defensive-focused, more than offensive-focused, and team speed, youth, and just upgrade in talent, I think has been executed. But Dan Quinn and Durante Jones, and then David Blow on the offensive side, they're going to have to

make it come together and fit together. So that's my number one sort of post-draft opinion. It's not specific to the draft. Specific to the draft, you know, I liked the styles pick. I talked about that on Friday show. I would have preferred Ruben Bain, but I also admit that there's a lot I don't know. And the short arm, you know, analytics people, they may be right. I mean, I don't know that I'm right about that. I just know that the player was an absolute monster on the field and that he was, you know,

probably the best player not named Mendoza in college football last year. You could certainly make that case. But I like Sonny Stiles. I like the player. I like the person and the brains and the culture fit and the whole thing. And not to mention, he fills a need. Now, the two players that they drafted Friday night and on Saturday that I have an opinion. It's not a strong opinion about, but I will share that opinion.

And then I'll talk about the other players, including, by the way, one of the undrafted free agents that they signed today. But I'm going to start with Ketron Allen, the sixth round running back from Penn State. I talked about him last week when I went through my running backs. I said about Allen, I like Ketron Allen a lot. I like him more than Nick Singleton. Those two have been sort of a pair at Penn State for a while. Ketron Allen to me is one of those really natural vision runners.

He's also powerful at the point of contact. you know, is he a game breaker? No, but he does have short burst ability. You know, he's very decisive with his vision, and there is some burst, and there is some tackle breaking, and there's some power there at 215, 220 pounds. And I like him and liked him more than Singleton as a runner. Ketron Allen's played a lot of football all four years at Penn State. Something I didn't know until he was drafted. He's the all-time leading rusher at Penn State. I had no idea that that was the case. I mean, they've had some really good running backs going all the way back to Kurt Warner in the 80s. But, you know, one of the reasons for that

is, first of all, they're playing all four years. They're playing more games every year than they used to. But he's been playing a lot since he was a freshman. He finished at Penn State with 4,180 yards. And this past season was his most productive. He rushed for 13003 yards, averaged 6.2 yards per carry, and had 15 rushing touchdowns. Now, he's not a prolific pass catcher. Singleton was more of that for Penn State out of the backfield. But I wanted to mention his last three games this past season, his senior year. year. Listen to these three games in a row to close out his career. Against Michigan State on the road in East Lansing, November 15th, 25 carries 181 yards, two touchdowns,

7.2 yards per carry. The following week, at Home and Happy Valley against Nebraska, they won that game 37 to 10. They beat Michigan State the week before 2810. Remember Penn State season. It was an absolute train wreck. They started off 3-0. They were ranked. you know, third or whatever or fourth in the country. And they lost at home in double overtime to Oregon when Aller threw the pick in overtime. And then, you know, Franklin ended up getting fired. Aller got hurt. It was a disaster. Disaster season, they lost like six in a row. But they ended the season with a three-game winning streak. And Allen was a big part of it. After the game against Michigan State, where he rushed for 181 yards. He rushed for a buck

60 against Nebraska and two more touchdowns at 6.4 yards per carry. And then his season finale against Rutgers, 22 for 226, 10.3 yards per carry, and another touchdown. I mean, his final three games, he rushed for 567 yards and five touchdowns. Not bad. I liked him going into the draft because I do like at the NFL level. Of course, everybody likes a home run threat. But I love those guys that between the tackles have that vision and have that, you know, sort of yak ability to get you three or four when maybe you should only get one or two.

And I think he's that kind of back. He is going to replace Rodriguez, I would imagine. he has a chance. I mean, he's a sixth-th-round pick. He may not make the team, but he's got a chance to be the short-yardage pack. Look, their running back room is interesting. You know, they did not get Jeremiah Love, as we all know, and I know that that was a dream for some of you. But it's Bill Kroski Merritt. It's Rashad White. Rashad White's a veteran, who I think is good with vision between the tackles. He's an excellent pass blocker, excellent pass receiver. I actually think Rashad White's going to be a much bigger part of the conversation when we get to the regular season than some of you might think.

But it's kind of a wild running back room. White, Krosky, Merritt, Jerome Ford from Cleveland that they signed, Jeremy McNichols is back and now Ketron Allen. I mean, five backs and, you know, they're not going to keep more than four. McNichols obviously would have, you know, will play on special teams. Yeah, it's competition. competition. They may only keep three of these guys when all is said and done. But I do like the Catron Allen pick. I think he's got a chance. That's all. I think he's got a chance.

And then the other player is, I didn't talk a lot about Antonio Williams. He was not necessarily on my list, one of the top wide receivers that I thought could be available for Washington in, you know, on night two or day three, I didn't talk about him. We talked about some of the guys that they could take, obviously, at seven overall, Carnell Tate, you know, for starters, and he was gone. But Jordan Tyson, you know, a tradeback and a selection of Omar Cooper Jr. Or McCoy Lemon or Casey Concepcion. I like all those guys.

I like Denzel Boston a lot. He went in the second round to Cleveland. I also really liked Zachariah Branch from Georgia as a slot receiver, and that's what he is. I think he's got some Tariq Hill in him. He was selected after Antonio Williams in the third round, eight picks later by the Falcons. I also liked the kid from Georgia State as a bigger receiver, Ted Hurst, who was also picked after Antonio Williams. but after spending some time, more time on Antonio Williams, man, he is actually what one of the two emails said.

He is actually a polished route runner. He's a good, solid separator. I think he looks much more like a slot receiver. I know that there was some discussion about versatility that he can play on the outside. He's 5-11, 185. He ran a good 40 time. I think it was 4-4-1.

or 4-4-4 even. We'll see what Steve thinks. I'm interested to get Steve on this receiver because Steve was a receiver. Steve was also, you know, the greatest punt returner in ACC history. Antonio Williams, by the way, before this past season, returned punts and was pretty good at it. But I kind of like him as a hands catcher, as a separator. He doesn't appear to be like a blazing speed guy.

But plenty fast enough. And let's face it, probably fills a need because if they add IUC, it could be IEuk, Terry, and Antonio Williams. Now, it could also be Luke McCaffrey. It could also be, you know, we'll see how Diami fits into this, you know, on the outside, Diombi, Traylon Burks, Van Jefferson. But you've got a competitive wide receiver room. You still don't have a great wide receiver room. but IUC could change that if you get the IUC of 2023 back. Because the idea of IUC McLorn, and look, I thought Luke McCaffrey, remember Luke McAfrey last year,

excellent kickoff for Turner, so was Debo before he got hurt and then we moved him out of that role. McCaffrey was an excellent kickoff returner, had a couple of good games as a receiver. I haven't given up on Luke McCaffrey. I mean, maybe McCaffrey beats out Antonio Williams. We'll see. They were both third-round picks. But I did like what I saw from Antonio Williams after watching his tape. You know, the one thing that I don't know that you're going to get out of him,

that you definitely get out of Terry, that by the way, you get out of Brandon Ayuk, if you get the Brandon Ayuk from 2023, is, you know, you get him in the blocking, you know, in the run game. But you wouldn't have him on the field when you're running the football more often than, not. In terms, so those are the two that they drafted over the weekend that I have, you know, an opinion about. I like the pick of Allen and I like the pick of Antonio, Antonio Williams. Joseph's, I got to be honest with you. There is some, you know, there's some attitude issues. There were some red flags on this guy, even though he probably got drafted at the highest value spot for Washington based on where he was projected to go, and I'll let Warren Sharp weigh in on

that. But, you know, looks like a one-trick pony. We'll find out what Steve thinks. They did not get the center that Colc, Colc Kublich, our guests from last week, thought that would be a perfect fit. And ironically, it was in the fifth round when Washington selected Joseph's. They selected him right after Cleveland selected Parker Brailsford from Alabama. I wonder if Washington would have selected him had he been on the board one pick later. They ended up taking a center. I can't tell you much about the center, Matt Gulbin. And as far as the quarterback from Rutgers, man, did he play a lot of football? And he was a gamer as a quarterback. I, you know, I've seen a lot of criticism of them taking a quarterback in the seventh round.

I just can't. I'll tell you what, what's interesting is that Garrett Nussmeyer, last year at this time, you know, on way too early 2026 mock drafts, was either the top quarterback or certainly a top five quarterback. Nussimier went in the seventh round to Kansas City, behind the quarterback from Texas Tech, who really struggled in the playoff game against Oregon. So the kid from Rutgers who Washington took in the seventh round went ahead of Garrett Nussmeyer.

The guy that I was interested in was Talen Green from Arkansas. He's 6'6. He runs 4-4 and has a big arm. I mean, there's a lot of dual threat ability. I don't know about the rest of it. He actually went to Cleveland. Cleveland took another quarterback. I will just say, Drew Aller, getting drafted in the third round by Pittsburgh. I don't get it all.

I just, every time I watch Drew Aller, I'm like, that's not an NFL quarterback. Now, part of it is he could have been just too young, super young, not physically mature yet. I was happy to see Carson Beck be the third quarterback taken. He was taken with the first pick of the third round by Arizona. I think Carson Beck's got a chance to be a good quarterback. But again, fit, coaching, all that's important. But as far as the quarterback, I mean, that dude, played a lot of football at Rutgers and was a real gamer for a Rutgers team that sometimes

was more competitive than their talent should have produced. But would I prefer just another player that you know has maybe a chance of seeing the field versus a guy that isn't going to see the field that you could bring Josh Johnson back? Although did he sign with somebody else he may have? But I don't really have a problem with that. the two players after styles that I liked are Ketron Allen one, Antonio Williams, too, and I just don't have a strong opinion about any of the others. I really don't. Now, Washington today signed a kicker, an undrafted kicker who I actually talked about when we talked about kickers last week. Drew Stevens, the kicker from Iowa,

signs with Washington, so he will compete with Jake Moody in training camp. This dude had a huge leg, had some big kicks for Iowa in bad weather. Go check out the 58-yarder he kicked in a downpour, chilly game against Oregon this past season. It was, I think the final score was 19 to 17, or no, 18 to 16 was the final score. and it was a great football game in horrible weather. Oregon won the game, but Stevens booted one from 58. He had multiple 55 or longer kicks this past year. Big leg.

I think he was super accurate, you know, comparatively to the previous years. I think he was 22 of 26 this year. Actually, okay, here it is. Statistics for his. career. By the way, in four years, now it's a different extra point in college. Remember, they kick it from the 10-yard line. It's 20 yards. He was only missed two PATs in four years. Field goals overall, 80%. His best year was his junior year where he was 20 of 23. He was 22 of 28 this year, but two of those kicks were super long kicks. But he made a bunch of long ones,

too. He was four for six from 50 plus. 12 of 19. from 50 plus for his career. So, you know, Jake Moody, sometimes that kicker, and they picked him, remember the Niners did in the third round. It's the third or fourth team that they end up kind of catching on. And Moody kicked pretty well for them last year, except for the one that he shanked in the season finale against Philadelphia. You want to hear something interesting about Washington's draft

that I literally just saw before I started. to record. The RAS score of their six draft choices ranked 29th out of 32 NFL teams. Now, Stiles had an insane relative athletic score, the best ever for an offball linebacker. But after that, the center had a very low one. The quarterback had a low one. Ketron Allen actually didn't have a Rass score. and then Joseph's was okay and Antonio Williams was okay, but 29th out of 32. So we may have to change our thinking for next year's draft about relative athletic score and Adam Peters affinity for that, although a lot of their free agent signings this year had

when they were tested for the draft in their respective years had high RAS scores. But how about that? You know, after Stiles, it's like here we go, another big Rast score year. except that it wasn't this year. 29th out of 32 teams. I'm going to talk more about the passing of Monty Coleman with Tommy on the show tomorrow, but I will just say this. Monty Coleman, when I heard of the news, when I heard the news, excuse me, last night,

that he had passed away at 68 years old, I knew that this was going to hit hard with his teammates. he was really well-liked, if not beloved, by the teammates that he had during Washington's championship years. He arrived here in 1979 as an 11th round pick from Central Arkansas. I mean, anybody of age that remembers Monty Coleman and remembers those years, what do we remember? Not one specific play, not one specific game, but just his overall outrageous speed, athleticism. His RAS score would have been through the roof had they had it in 1979. I think it started in 87, the Rass score. But he ran a 4-4-40, which was one of the fastest times ever for a linebacker.

They used him occasionally on kickoff returns, on a reverse, on a trick play. It's funny because I'm going to play a soundbite for you that I just found. But I actually talked about the comp for Monty Coleman on radio this morning. He was very similar to a player that the Cowboys had drafted in the 70s named Thomas Hollywood Henderson. He was a freakish athlete Henderson was. Now, overall, Henderson had so many off-the-field issues, but Henderson was a more talented linebacker, but athletically they were similar, and Dallas did the same thing. I'm sure Washington copied it from Dallas. They used Hollywood Henderson on kickoff returns on trick kickoff returns on a reverse.

Washington did that with Coleman a few times, but his speed, his closing speed, his ability to cover or pressure. Doc reminded me this morning that the teams of the 80s and early 90s with Mouse Davis's run and shoot, Detroit ran it, Atlanta ran it. I mean, Richie Pettibone essentially put Monty Coleman onto the field as a sixth defensive back. So they had five and then he was essentially the sixth. He could cover anybody as a linebacker. He was really, really good and I knew that this was going to be a hard one for his teammates. Now, you'd been sick for a while for really the last several years. I know that Dan Quinn invited a lot of the veteran players from past eras to come back,

either last year or two years ago. I forget when it was. And I remember hearing from some of the people that were out there that Monty did not look great at that point. But rest in peace, Monty Coleman, sympathies to his family. I know Tommy will have a lot on Monty Coleman as well. He was a really good player. I mean, just so versatile.

Richie Pettibone loved him. Loved Monty Coleman. I'm going to leave you going into this break with a piece of sound from Howard Cosell and Frank Gifford calling a Monday night game at RFK between the Cowboys and Redskins in September of 1980. You'll hear Gifford call a tackle Monty Coleman tackling Tony Dorset, and then you'll hear Howard talk. talking about Monty Coleman and comparing him to Hollywood Henderson. So I'll leave you with that here going into this first break. And when we come back, Steve Suter will join me for a film breakdown of the other five players, Washington drafted over the weekend. Dorset.

As the moves of the outside and Monty Coleman, whom we talked about extensively in the first half, with that great speed was there. You watch this kid throughout this season. He's going to come into total starter. What he is, is an athlete of the Tom Hollywood Henderson. Elkin may be even better, and that's saying so. So I wear glasses. I think some of you know that. I wear prescription eyeglasses.

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ends in three days. So call them again, 86690 Nation or head to windownation.com. All right, Steve Souter is back with us. If you missed Friday show, Steve broke down Sunny styles with a film review. and he likes Sonny Stiles a lot. But let's get to what you've done with the rest of the draft. You had a chance yesterday to kind of go through all of the remaining five picks that they selected in this draft. So let's start with number 71 overall third round Antonio Williams' wide receiver Clemson. I like him.

The more I was watching him, the more film he started growing on me. initially, you've seen maybe too gimmicky for me right away just in the way they were giving the fall. Well, I'll say this, I was watching it. Watch this film, like, oh, this is the Debo replacement. Right away, that was the first thoughts I had. But then just

starting to watch the film, he started growing on me. He wasn't just a gimmick guy doing jet sweeps and screens out. He did a lot of that, and he's decent at it. But he showed me some things down the field and he showed me a ability, especially in the 5 to 10-yard area of getting inside on

on dbs and coverage and making plays over the middle. That's probably my favorite attribute. For Antonio Williams is his route to reception transition really smooth, keeps his feet on the ground as he's running through the catch. A lot of receivers don't do that. They lose momentum. And then that allows a DB that they make a play on them because of that split-second where they're slowing down because they're trying to focus on catching the football

and making a reception. He's really smooth through that transition so he can keep the pace on a slant and keep his top speed going so he can get more out of it. He probably already is the best run-after catch receiver on the commander's roster right now. Two days in the facility, I think he's probably going to be their number one threat there making things happen after he gets the ball in his hand. So I was really impressed there. I don't think he's a blazer.

He does not look that fast on film. Don't be wrong. He's quick and he's got speed, but I've been looked up his time, and I saw 4-4-1. I can't say that I really saw 4-4-1 on film. He wasn't running away from anybody, and if he caught a deep pass, the defender usually kind of walked him down. So he's not a blazer by any means, but he's not slow.

So I think he's a perfect blend of runs under control during his route so that he can make quicker cuts, and that's not a bad thing. A lot of guys try to change their speeds up on their routes, and it's too obvious for a D.B. He didn't really give me that. So I think he likes to run at a certain speed throughout the whole routes, then he keeps himself.

self-balanced, but I think he's got a shot to be a decent player. He's definitely slot only for me. It would be a gimmick if he was on the outside in a random formation that I'm sure they could do with some motions to try to create matchups, but he's strictly a slot to start and then to see how he rises and takes on the NFL. I was going to ask you if you see him as a possibility outside. I think they drafted him in part because there's a plan more. more likely than not to add Brandon Ayyuk to the mix.

So Terry and Brandon Ayuk on the outside and this kid on the inside. That's interesting that you said that he immediately, based on their wide receiver room, becomes the best run-after catch guy in the room. So you like him more than Terry after the catch. You like them. Now, you didn't see and you didn't do film breakdown for me in 2024 when Diami Brown was on the team.

So, you know, and Diami's pretty good after the catch. But of the guys, you know, he's the best after the catch, and he's a good slack guy. Hands catcher too, right? Yeah, we have real natural hands. He will use his body if he needs to, but he's got a couple good plays where he uses his body, but situations that I would say, yeah, those are necessary

and somewhat of the right decision. He's got a highlight on a Florida State game, his 2024 films probably better than his 25 films in my opinion. I mean, really productive though he has a lot of crab. He's going to leave with over 200 catches. So he's been making play since

he got to play in Florida State, and he's running, he's a slot guy, and he's running a skinny post, and when he makes his break on the post, he looks, and he could tell, you can see it because you get another close-up of the replay that he knows he probably shouldn't be getting to football. He's got a safety over top of him, and he's running towards

another safety. So as a receiver, you're like, right, I'm dead. I'm just going to take the top off the cover show. But when he looks back at the QB, all shit, here comes the ball. And you see him, like, quickly lock back in. He knows he's about to take a hit. And he still goes up and makes the play. And he breaks both tackles and he goes to the crib. So that's just some of those subtle things that I think he's really comfortable in congestion. He doesn't mind taking a hit. He's trying to still try to do what he can to make play on the ball. So I was really impressed there. He's going to do well over the middle. And if he can he can make a living five yards and in, five yards and out.

I mean, there's a little, I don't know how much of the offense, they'll be doing that, but maybe they are, like, some of that West Walker stuff where he's just running offender route in the slot kind of, same brown does that too a little bit, and I don't want to make him a Hall of Famer yet, but he's got that type of aspect there in the slot where he could just win on quick stuff. I don't see him getting deep on guys in the league.

It would be he's just going to have to really win off the line of scrimmage and really fool somebody on a slant route, and then get over top, but I don't think it'll be a deep threat at all. He's going to have to make his money 20 yards and under, and then use that yak ability, like I mentioned, to make a big play. Did you see any of his return highlights or not from a few years ago? I did not actually. I was strictly watching his receiver.

They basically, he didn't do much of it at all in this past season. It was more when he was a younger player, but he's pretty good at it, really decisive as a returner. But you like Jalen Lane as a returner. I do. You know, and the more I kept, I'm just like, do anything you can do to keep laying off the field on offense and let him just focus on being a good returner. Right. And that is going to be a much better aspect and bring something to the team that you need and the Cameris can use.

I think him playing offense as much as he did last year, Laying really screwed him up on special teams as well. He just, it's just a different mindset. If he just knows I'm the guy out here, all I've got to focus on his returning. punts and making good decisions on when to catch it, when to return it. Things of that nature. You just more effective and can be more dominant. I think his brain was probably in a pretzel all year when he was playing outside. I probably screwed his development a little bit.

So if Williams can take some of that burn off-end and the other receivers that you brought in and Lane doesn't have to touch the field in offense, then that's a good thing. And if this guy's, I mean, he certainly shows athletic enough ability, hands, confident in his hand-eye coordination to catch punts so he could be. option back there as well. All right. They don't have to have same still back there in an emergency. Right.

Got to remember that. Yeah. All right. The next pick came in the fifth round, the third of their six picks. By the way, the six picks that they entered the draft with, they picked right at the same number.

No trades up, no trades down at any point during the draft. But Joshua Joseph's, Edge, defensive, N Tennessee, would you think? Yeah, this is where the draft kind of downhill for me for the commanders. I'm not sure of the move here,

and this goes in, I guess, your GM philosophy. If you take whatever you would consider your best available versus position need, I know D-line was something that they needed to address in the off-season a great deal, and I think they did that. So this pick on the edge, if Armstrong and Y has come back healthy,

and this one makes even less sense to me, but that aside, philosophy aside, I didn't really love his film either, so maybe that's why I'm also down on it. I don't think he's got, many moves from a versatility standpoint when he's rushing the passer. He was strictly trying to win on the speed rush every clip for the 15 minutes and 20 minutes of film that I found on him.

He had no inside pass rush, no swim moves, no dips and rips, no spins. He got inside one time on a stunt, but that's because you're forced to go in there because you're stunning. Other than that, I think he's a one-trick pony, and it's probably going to be easy to golf as a tackle to shut him down. If he doesn't win on the speed rush, then he's probably going to be ineffective. So I'm not really high on him from a film standpoint. He's kind of, I don't know, awkwardly running, too, if that makes sense.

He's not. Kind of upright? Yeah, that is just like, God, I don't know. It's hard to explain. There's a guy I remember. I was like, Andre Carter, I think his name was back in the day. He was, I mean, physical, strong, and you can see it, but it just doesn't look smooth and athletic on film.

in poor tackler. I didn't love that pick. Okay. I mean, the one thing about him is he does have speed off the edge, but you're saying that's it. I think that's it, yeah. I didn't see any ability to set somebody up on a speed rush and then dip inside on them because you got to tackle the pass set so much

because you're concerned about your speed that you got an easy inside rip. None of that was on film, so I don't know if he's, just might be go back to my overall observation of him not being that fluid and coordinated that maybe he can't get that. Maybe he doesn't have that move in his arsenal. At least I haven't seen it yet. Okay. So he's a development for me. He's going to have to spend a lot of time just working on his solo rush technique and getting a couple moves in his arsenal. All right. K-Tron Allen. I mean, you've seen a lot of Penn State over the last couple of years in person. They had the two backs, Allen and Singleton together the last couple of years.

they picked him in the sixth round. What did you make of him? Well, he's fairly a player to deserve to get drafted just from his productivity in college. His productivity is probably a second rounder, but he's just attributes to put him in the sixth round. I mean, he's a good football player. I'll give him that.

But his number one attribute for me, I'll say, is vision and then breaking tackles would be number two. He's not that shifty. He has no downhill speech. speed. So he doesn't test well, but he's just a good football player. Is that going to be enough to make the roster? I'm not sure. That one's going to be a tough one to watch because he is a good football player, but he is small but powerful, not very fast, but has good vision. So can

those, can he overcome his limits with his attributes that he has? Yeah. Where do you see him fit? I mean, I don't get to watch him third down. so I don't know how his past protection is. Maybe that's a niche form. You've already got McNichols there that I really like when they brought back. Could he fit there? I'm not shot. I don't know.

I got to watch him in past protection. Steve's a liability. You don't get to see that on the draft day film highlights unless you're watching an entire game. Yeah, it's an interesting running back room now because you've got Kroski Merritt. They sign Rashad White, who I think is between the tackles pretty solid with vision.

He's an excellent path. blocker. He's a good pass receiver. They didn't have, you know, sort of a short yardage Rodriguez replacement. Alan, like you said, that's what I always thought. I liked him more than Singleton. He doesn't have the home run breakaway, but he, between the tackles, has good vision, makes people kind of miss a little bit in close quarters. And I think maybe they see him as a potential short yardage back. It's a good place to start them. I'm not going to just. agree with that because a lot of his highlights

from Penn State are 10 yards at end for those reasons, using the vision in between the tackles and he can make up when they don't get it blocked up front. He could break a linebacker's tackle or the end tackle for that matter. He's barely strong. Like I said, that was the second thing that jumps off the team. He just

breaks tackle. So that's good. Vision being number one, breaks tackle number two. Is it going to be enough to warn a spot on the roster? We'll have to see. But yeah, I agree. It's kind of an oddball, running back room now on how it's going to shake out. I hope, I hope White, like you mentioned, is a good pickup for him.

Yeah, it's the running back position right now, because this is going to be their running back room. You know, there's no, there's no free agent left out there that they can add. They didn't draft Jeremiah Love. He wasn't available. And, you know, I think that they brought in Rashad White because I think Kroski Merritt, the fumbling and the pass blocking stuff, is still, still a concern. They needed a veteran. They brought in Jerome Ford. Ford's been a decent sort of short yardage thing. The running back room in the running back, you know, competition over the summer through training camp is going to be an interesting one. All right. I agree. There's another spot here. Like, why? I don't know. Why do you go running back here? You got a

bunch of heads in there. You have two needs for me, for sure, at DB. Like, why don't you take a shot here at a corner? And center. I know we're about to talk about center. Why don't you go two centers here? I've had took another center here, too, or the rest DBs or the rest centers. I mean, who cares? What if you take three centers here at the end? Yeah, I mean...

Weird, but why not do it? Like, Callie Mac is he's not going to play? Right. He's not playing. He's third string at best. Yeah. I think that not drafting a corner is probably the biggest complaint among fans. You know, I had Sean Springs on the radio show today.

He's a big Trey Amos fan. And Sean's one of these guys that over the years with me will tell me, no, I'm not a fan of him. Like, I remember a couple years ago he's like, they just don't have any talent, you know? But he last year during training camp came on with me and he said, I'm just going to tell you, I know a corner when I see one. He's in NFL corner and he's going to be a good one.

in the future. Now, you know, we saw some of that last year with Amos, and then he got hurt. So we'll see. Yeah. And then they added Amic Robertson in Free Agency from Detroit. What about this center, Matt Galvin from Michigan State? Yeah, Golden's hard for me to really evaluate this state. I think he, I want to say, if my memory is correct, I don't think he played against the Terps here. I think he was hurt. Not that it mattered.

I would have been paying attention, locked up. Right. I put on his film. Initially, I'm a little concerned. I was like, man, he doesn't look that physically imposing at all. And so then I went on to the,

what do you call it, the combine stack? He only did 21 reps at 225. I did 20 reps at 225. You don't really want your center benching the same as a receiver now. In high thing, Antonio Williams,

that's a rep flag for me, too. He only did 10. That's, I could do 10 right now. I haven't listed in three years. So that's a little concerning of his frame's going to be able to handle that. That's kind of shocking, actually, because he looks more physically stronger than that. But Goldman concerned me there didn't look down me, so I looked it up, and it makes sense.

He wasn't getting a lot of push and lockout with his arms on the tackles in the trenches. Centers don't always have to do that. That's more of a tackle thing and a guard thing. You just got to be lateral and be able to get to the next level. sure, he showed me some flashes of that, but we'll have to wait. He's going to get his shot, though, because I don't think you have the answer at center on the roster right now. Yeah. I would have been shocked had they not taken a center. I wonder if they got the one that they wanted. I had somebody on the show last week, and I think we talked about this on Friday, but before they selected in the fifth round,

right before they selected Joshua Joseph's, Parker Brailsford, the center from Alabama, which my guest last week, Cole Kublick said, would be a great pick for Washington. He went the pick before Joseph, so maybe they were going to take a center there. Who knows? Man, that makes sense. And then the quarterback, I mean, he played a lot of football at Rutgers. He plays a lot of football. He's a solid player.

He tore the terms up. Yeah. four touchdowns. He had two picks, but one was a batteball, the line of scrimmage, and the other one was Hail Mary in the second half. He picked him apart. I mean, Rutgers ran for 250 hours. Oh, my God. Do you remember that? Jesus. He could do anything you want, but he was dealing, and I got no issues with him as a QB. I think that he's probably an NFL quarterback, and he'll probably play 10 years, maybe even longer. He'll may never start, but three games in his whole career,

but he was going to make a good living. but that just doesn't make sense to me either with the two quarterbacks on the staff. I'm looking up to see. I just remember number three for Rutgers. I can't even remember his name. But every, I mean, I think he had like, literally like 45 carries in the game. Yeah. I'm looking for it.

Oh, here it is. Here it is. Antoine Raymond. He, against Maryland, 41 carries for 240. for 240. Good God. By the way, only one Maryland player drafted. We've gotten used to in the last few years,

multiple terms getting drafted, and Jalen Husky got picked at the end of the third round, I think it was, the safety, who, by the way, has a knack for making plays, like on the ball. But he was it. Nobody else. Yeah, I wasn't shocked.

Yeah, I really wasn't shocked about that acumen. There wasn't anybody. on that roster coming out that I thought was willing or deserving of a draft pick. Husky, and if I'm being honest, probably a little early for me in the third round, but I'm glad to see him get drafted. And they've had a good run, especially in the secondary. So he's keeping that going of the secondary guys getting drafted. And I think Jamar Glasker now, they've got a couple on the roster here that will be draft picks, too.

I think, in the next year. Barham got picked, I think, in the second round. Maybe the third round, I forget. I was never a Barham guy. Oh, man. But why? Never may play. We never would call his name.

And he's supposed to be the best on defense. And Johnny would never say, tackle by Barham. He was just never around the ball. Yeah. Interesting. He wasn't. Look at his stats in Michigan.

He was not around the ball. All right. What else? The draft for the commander's stopped in the third round for me after William. I think they may just should have went some other areas to try to I mean these are all, I don't want to

call them, I don't want to disrespect these players, like but you're a gamble out. Fifth round and in the seventh, you're a gamble, you're basically an undrafted for agent two. You're not guaranteed a Roger Spide. These guys have a good shot, so I just don't understand why you went. Take a game with some other positions.

Like K. John Allen is not going to come in and start. I don't know. I just don't if that makes sense, but you had options to find, take another receiver. You need, you need guys. Take a gamble on those other positions that could be more impactful. That was just my overall feel on it. Great job, as always, super helpful. Steve is, as of now, Steve's plan is to be back with us in the fall

to do film breakdown of Washington's upcoming 2026 season on a weekly basis. So we will talk, I'm sure, well in advance of that, but really appreciate the last two days. Thanks. Yep, you're welcome. Steve Suter, everybody. Warren Sharp will join me next to talk about the weekend's NFL draft and Washington's draft in particular. We'll do that after these words from a few of our sponsors. Okay, guys, I'm about to tell you about the most incredible, unforgettable gift you can get mom this mother's

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You now have an account balance of $750 to wager with. MyBooky.com or mybooky.ag promo code DC reload. All right. Joining me right now is Warren Sharp from Sharp Football Analysis. You can follow Warren on X at Sharp Football. We've had Warren on the show many times over the years. usually in the late spring after the schedule comes out where Warren's got his net rest study completed, which tends to be pretty significant to the outcomes of teams seasons. We'll do that with Warren at some point after the schedule comes out mid-next month.

But he's done a lot of work with his team on the draft since it ended on Saturday night. And before we get to some of what you really emphasize, after the draft, and that is your metric that you call draft capital over expectation, which is a study that you do that sort of looks at a consensus, big board and talks about where the players were picked, where they picked before they were supposed to be picked, or were they picked after they were supposed to be picked. I think that is an interesting way to look at a draft one,

but I want to start with this, because, you've been doing this for a long time and I have said for years running that while we are obsessed with what we just watched for three straight days over the weekend the NFL draft

the truth is nobody really knows much the teams get it wrong two thirds of the time and on days like yesterday and today when people are being so declarative about drafts and they're assigning grade on drafts, et cetera. I'm curious as to what you think about that immediate reaction to players that have not played

one down in the NFL yet and tend to be much more miss than hit. Well, you're right. Certainty is definitely an enemy as it relates to the NFL draft. These are all prospects. I think of it, I think a lot of us as fans, you know, we think we know everything that's going on in the NFL. But think of it as like, you know, maybe this is a little bit closer comparison. You're a guy listening to this show and you coach your son's basketball or soccer team, right? Like you think you selected the right guys for that age group for your team, your son's team to play with them as teammates.

But you don't know exactly how well those guys are going to play. And it's even harder in the NFL because of a lot of different things like injuries and scheme fits. And some of these guys show things while in college. It doesn't translate necessarily as well. the NFL. So like you said, two out of every three of these guys are just not going to hit no matter what. What I obviously, the other, I think the key factor of this year, Kevin, is that I went back and looked at the odds right before the NFL draft and then the odds right now and working with some people on the staff. A lot of them haven't really changed that much. Part of the reason is because

this year's class was not that great and there aren't that many absolutely impactful players. And like one of the guys who's clearly going to be in fact, tactful like Fernando Mendoza, we already knew that he was going to the Raiders. So their odds obviously were already adjusted, you know, well before a week ago, two weeks ago, et cetera. And you look at a guy like Carson Beck.

Okay, he's a, you know, quarterbacks make the biggest difference. Okay, Carson Beck was drafted a little bit early than some people thought, but is he going to be, are they only going to play him when he's ready? And then is he going to be that big of a downgrade or upgrade potentially to Jacoby Brissette? Like, it might just be a wash,

for what he's going to do there. And so these odds just didn't really change all that much. So, you know, Commander's fans, we're going to be talking momentarily about how you nailed the draft. I gave you the best draft capital over expected ranking. The real question becomes like, how much is that going to matter in 2026, right? Sunny style, massive difference makers. The rest of these players, how much are they actually going to get on the field?

How big of a difference is it going to make this upcoming season? I think the bigger, important perspective here is to zoom out a little bit and think of this you are trying to build the best roster that you can build, and it takes time to do this year in, year out. The fortunate part for the commanders is that you have a quarterback who's still on a rookie deal. You're entering year three, but once he does get paid that bigger deal, you're still going to have a couple of really cheap years that are at the beginning of that. So don't view it as like, oh, his window's about to end. No, the way that most of these GMs do things as they give a quarterback a bigger deal is to give them a couple of months.

more years where it's a cheaper cap hit. So the commanders are still going to be in a good situation. As long as Adam Peters continues to stack some value like he did in this draft, I think the commanders are going to be, okay, the opposite though, the biggest discussion point, if you're, I mean, obviously, I think I started this a little bit, but a lot of other people were commenting on it as well about a team on the other end of the spectrum like the San Francisco 49ers who reach. And the thing that set me off and why I wrote like a big. I read it. You could say on John Lynch was because after the draft, he has asked about the consensus

and about, you know, the way that you've used the draft. And he basically gave response like, I think my, he didn't say this direct quote. We care only about the consensus within our building, aka they're sticking their head in the ground. They're not really paying attention to where many people think that these players will go. They're just trying to draft their guys whenever they are next up on the clock, regardless of whether that's like the smartest time to drop this guy or not, or to give it this way, we could trade down a little bit and potentially still get this guy because nobody else

thinks that he's going to go where we are. And then we can accumulate more draft capital for the future. So there's a variety of different ways to approach the draft, even within different buildings, let alone the way that the fans view it. And if you want to discuss more about the John Lynch and the 49ers, I can certainly get into that, but I don't want to derail this conversation right from the beginning. No, it's a very important point. because even if they got the players correct, which they haven't recently, that's not really the point of these consensus drafts. But let me just point something out that you just said,

because I think it's really important for listeners to this show. What Warren said about Jaden's contract is so true. We look at this rookie deal, and we think you've got to take advantage of a quarterback like Jaden on his rookie contract. and the first opportunity that Washington will have to give him what will likely be a massive extension will be next offseason following his third year and prior to his fourth season in the NFL. But the point is a really good one that you make, and I have not emphasized it, and that is because the cap just keeps going up year by year, these quarterback deals are very team-friendly. in the early years of the deal. So we shouldn't think about Jaden's just rookie contract taking advantage of it.

It'll be plus two, you know, at least on the front end of his next extension. Now, back to what you said. Here's the one, I totally get why you'd be upset about what John Lynch said. John Lynch saying, well, we don't care about consensus. We care about our own board. Well, that's not wise because the players that they really like, they could have gotten at a different spot had they paid attention to what the consensus boards are. My question to you is, though, with respect to what you've done here for the last few years,

and I think it's at least one way to look at it in terms of evaluating a draft in the moment, rather than waiting a few years to see how it shakes out, there's so much herd mentality. Isn't there worn in these mock drafts that that, because they're subjective in their own right. You know, a mock drafter, it's his opinion. But it seems like they end up being so close, and there's so much of sort of a herd mentality in the mock draft world. What do you think about that?

Well, so you're not wrong to think of the mock draft world that way. But the big board world is what really fuels the overall consensus rankings, because the mock draft is just the first round. And so within that first round, there's really only so many or so far that a player might slide or be drafted early, you know, Sunny Stiles. A perfect example, all the mock drafts expected him to go top five. He was massively favored to go top five based on the betting market, but then what ends up happening? You have a team like the Tennessee Titans who come in with a new coaching staff and new offense coordinator who are drafting solely for needs. They aren't drafting for best players.

They're drafting solely for need. They are doubling down on the investment of team made in Cam Ward the prior year drafting number one overall. And they're saying, we need to give them a weapon. Carnal takes not supposed to go at number four, but let's just draft them at number four because we need a weapon. And they do that. And that combined with the Cardinals drafting and running back at number three,

allows Sunny Stiles to slip out from five to seven. Not a massive flip, but a small flip that allows the commanders to get him. As it relates to the big boards, though, that's where there's far, hardly anybody publishes their big boards. A lot of these guys that do this for living are really focused on just isolating themselves. I've got one of the guys here, Ryan McChrystal, who is one of the most accurate in terms of the last five years. I think he's number six in accuracy at this point in time in the nation at ranking his top 100, you know, which obviously goes into the third, you know, deep into the third. you have deep into the third round, fourth round. So we're talking about beyond the first round of the draft.

And these guys aren't comparing lists with anybody else. You've got guys like Dane Bruebler and Tom McShay, who just isolate themselves and start ranking their players and listing them out in their big boards and their top 300. These are guys that are hired by the athletic and other places that are really focused on just trying to identify different players and ranking them. So the consensus boards that I'm looking at when I'm coming up with my metrics here are well beyond the first round.

And so I agree with your sentiment is the herd mentality in some of the mock draft and everybody making adjustments two days before, five days before the NFL draft based upon what they're hearing, what other people are doing in their mock drafts that they've seen and they're moving people up and that. But that primarily is the first round. And obviously, where the consensus board that I'm looking at evaluates is, you know, the top 300 picks, top 300 players. Obviously, there are 257 picks in the draft,

so we don't even go that far, but we're looking at a little bit more of a sample further down the board where these guys aren't studying one another nearly as much. They're mainly just trying to grade out the players as best they see fit. I 100% agree also with another sentiment that, like, hey, different teams are going to have these guys ranked differently. Totally get it.

Like, I don't think we should massively criticize people for drafting off the consensus board once or twice, like, for a draft. But when you have a situation like a John Lynch, who is doing it for consecutive years, year and a year out, and year in a year out, and none of the players that he's reaching for actually work out for him. Right. Now, that's a problem. That's a problem. That's a problem. When you've got a guy like the Jacksonville Jaguars and their brand new general manager who comes in the door and James Gladstone and makes some really interesting moves to say the least, right?

They trade up a bunch of questions in 2025 for Travis Hunter and go and just bank everything and call him a player who's going to alter the trajectory of the support of the sport, play wide receiver and cornerback. and now you see that they're primarily going to play in a cornerback this year, full-time cornerback. And then in the 2026 draft the very next year, they basically went way off the board. They finished fourth worst in my draft capital over-expected. And so many of the picks that they made were literally well over 100 picks. We're talking three full rounds off from what the consensus was that now you have to say,

okay, are they trying to do this? are they, and the other quote, I don't know if you saw this one, Kevin, that he had, James Gladstone after the draft was, I think they said that they selected 10 players in the draft, and they didn't exercise like a few days before the draft, and they lined out, like,

who they were loved to target if they could. Right. And they wound up with, like, eight or nine of the players that they wanted. And that just shows me, like, it's easy to get the players. Of course. If nobody else has them on their board at the same spot, yeah. Right. Yeah. I mean,

I think it's okay to go off consensus a little bit, and I don't think it's the end-all, be-all that you should, like, crucify anybody for in a one-off, you know, pick. You have a draft. You decide to go off consensus for two of the picks and the other six picks. You're generally in line with things. I don't think that's a big deal. The closer you get to the seventh round, the more likely it is that you should be going off consensus and doing some of your own work.

When you're drafting a quarterback, right? that's another example, especially what the commanders did. You're drafting a guy in the seventh round, and he's a premium position, go off consensus a little bit. So it's not the end-all deal, but with such a large enough sample size now over several years, I think it's definitely a worthwhile way to analyze it. I do, too. And the point that you made about first round versus the rest of it makes total sense. You know, one of the things, as you were just talking about, especially Jacksonville recently,

I remember you're probably not going to remember because it's specific to a Redskins draft in 2011. They actually traded back and they took Ryan Carrigan. They passed ultimately on JJ Watt when they traded back. But it was their second round pick that was literally on nobody's top 100 big board. He was a defensive lineman from Clemson, Jarvis Jenkins. And I remember talking to Mike Shanahan like a year or two later. We were just talking about the drafts. And he said, we knew where he was on big boards.

but we really liked him, and so did another team, and we thought they were going to draft him earlier than projected. That's why we took them. So that would be one of those one-off examples, right? Exactly. Yeah, there's certain times when you should, we shouldn't, like I said, we shouldn't crucify any general manager for trying to do things that they think that they can improve their team with once in a while taking some of these picks,

because as we all know, you know, the concerns. The consensus is not going to be right 100% of the time. But what we have, there have been studies that have come out. I think especially in like the top, was it the three rounds or the top five rounds. I forget which one it was. Like they looked at the average efficiency that the players delivered from the consensus board as compared to where the guys were actually drafted. And the consensus board is actually like there's the, it's no worse. Like just going to.

Right. You could say, well, this is wisdom of crowds. Who cares? like we're just going to do what we think because these other guys don't know what they're doing. It's actually a false way to think because the wisdom of crowds, accumulating the consensus from all these people, is actually just as good if you follow that. And so they say, well, then why do you need a general manager?

Well, there's so many other things that happen with teams besides just drafting these players. And so you are going to need to incorporate certain factors in here, not only just when you're making the picks, but like the other was it, 3602 days of the year because there are so many other things that go on where you're going to need a general manager to run things. But the consensus board certainly is a good, valuable tool. And I just think there's a lot of debate right now on X and social media, et cetera, about the use of consensus boards and different teams and going off of that and the whole John Lynch thing. And I just think when you have the opportunity to have this type of information, you should not

just ignore it completely. And that's what it sounds like John Lynch and company are doing. It's, I liken it to, um, you live in area, you got like three or four gas stations within the same distance away and you're just going to the one. The gas is $10 a gallon because you're familiar with that gas issue. You like the layout of it. You like the air conditioning inside of it when you go in there to grab yourself a soda or something. But you're passing over same distance away. Yeah. Multiple other gas stations where you could get it for $5 a Allen. You have to understand the market. You have to understand what the rest of the teams are thinking as it relates to drafting players because, you know, this is a market and those picks

are worth something and you're overvaluing your picks or you're undervaluing them if you're going to just draft players too high that could be taken a lot lower. Yeah, I mean, you know, so let's get to this draft and the 49ers may have the answer on this one, and we'll get to Washington in a moment. But give me the player that was, based on the consensus, Big Board, give me the player that was the most underdrafted player and the player

that was the most overdrafted player. You're talking about just on the commanders, or you're talking about... No, for the entire draft, on draft capital over-expectation, you know, the player that was picked with the greatest value and the player that was picked with the least value. Okay, they're two guys very close neck and neck for the player that was reached on the most.

The first one was Zabian Thomas, the Chicago Bears wide receiver who was drafted in the third round. He was expected to go seventh round. The Bears take him at pick number 89 overall. And the second largest reach was Jean Stribling out of Old Miss who the 49ers. 49ers, yep. The first pick of the second round at pick number 33, he was not expected to go until pick number 99. Now, I did speak with Dave Bruegler, but for the draft, like two weeks before,

he mentioned shribbling is moving up the draft boards. And I spoke with Ryan New Crystal, my draft expert, and he had shribling around that same time, it was like April 9th and 10th that I was messaging back and forth in our Slack and talked about how I'm hearing rumors about shriveling moving up. then a few days later, I end up talking to Bruegler. He mentioned stribling as well. McChrystal went back and looked at stribling's tape on the 10th of April and was like, I also agree.

I think stribling is going to go higher than people expect. And he actually pegged him to go to the 49ers as it could fit in that offense. But 33 was still higher than anybody was expecting for scribbling. So those are the worst values. What about the best? Those were the worst. So the best value, this one's not going to surprise people. So Jermond McCoy, the Raiders grabbed him in the fourth round.

He was expected if the reports aren't as bad as they indicate the doctors' evaluation aren't quite as bad. I mean, this guy would be borderline top 10 pick most every year. Because of his injuries, he slipped all the way to day three. The Raiders traded up, grabbed him with the first overall pick of day three. But this is where like the consensus that was taken over the prior, you know, months and updated throughout that period of time, evaluated this prospect who missed the entire 20-25 season as a guy who should be drafted a lot higher than what he actually was.

We were getting word that he was falling massively, and we bet on a number of his draft props throughout this process at one point, probably a week before the draft. And as you probably know, like, the draft props are so much worse this year than in years past and the amount he's down on them, the number of offerings. is just terrible. But we were doing what we can with the things. But it was 10 and a half. We were even, his draft number, so is it going to go top 10 or not?

We were laying minus 400 to the over. That line continued to move. It was like 22 and a half, 26, half, 28 and a half. We kept betting the over as we were hearing he was going to move out of the first round. You know, even though he went all the way on day three, felt like we're getting rich off of this stuff because they don't let you get very much down. But he was the guy that was the biggest reach. another guy who is the second in line, sorry, he was the biggest steal.

The second best steal was Garrett Nussmeyer to the Kansas City Chiefs. Round seven, he was expected to go a lot earlier than that. The conversations were going on there throughout day two of the draft. Could Garrett Nussmeier flip into the third round here? No, he doesn't. And then there was constant conversation about when they talked about the quarterbacks that were available on day three, you know, with the Mel Kuiper, you know, what's going on with Garrett and Mousenmeyer type stuff. And he doesn't go until pick number 249 overall.

Another guy that was, I'll just give you a couple others. I'll give you two others. Avion Terrell to be Atlanta Falcons, he was expected to go earlier than where he went. He's a cornerback brother of AJ Terrell. That was a great story. That's going to be fun to watch those two brothers play together. and then Keith Abney, the cornerback for the Detroit Lions, he was expected to go late second round,

potentially early third. He lasted all the way until the fifth round he was drafted by Detroit Lions and another cornerback. All right, let's take a quick break. And when we come back, we'll get into Washington's draft specifically and see how it measured up against Warren's metric draft capital over expectation. We'll do that right after these words from a few of our sponsors.

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Quince.com slash Sheehan. We continue with Warren Sharp from Sharp Football Analysis. Warren's draft capital over-expectation metric is a metric that determines which teams reached the most, you know, stretched the most to draft a player, meaning drafted a player higher than that player's consensus spot was supposed to be, and which teams were able to get great value on players drafted later than expected. And you think Washington did pretty well. So I'll leave the floor to you.

Tell us about Washington's draft based on that metric. trick. So the only player, Washington unfortunately only had six draft picks. The only player that was technically a reach was their seventh round quarterback. And that's totally fine if you're going to reach a little bit for a quarterback and if you're going to reach on something in the seventh round. If you ignore him, the commanders had values everywhere else on the board with all five of their picks. Overall, even including him, evaluating the entire draft class for all 32 teams, The commanders had the number one best draft capital over-expected. They got the best value on the board more than anybody else.

Their best player, in terms of just pure value, okay, was Joshua Joseph, the edge defender that they took in round five. He was expected by the consensus to go at 77. He lasted all the way to pick 147. I asked Brian about that this morning. If I'm doing some interviews in D.C., he'd talk about Joshua Joseph's a little bit. Because Ryan didn't give the commanders like the best grade. Right, I saw that. And I'll talk to you a little bit about why that was because I got a little bit more color on that from him.

But with Joshua Joseph, specifically what he thought is that there's some potential off-field maturity stuff that made him fall a little bit. The Tennessee coach said that here's their direct quote. He's doing everything we've asked him to do. He's trying to maintain his weight, working on the techniques we ask him to do to get better. we don't need Superman out there. We just need Josh to come through and be a team player, not be selfish, and he will. And from Ryan's perspective, if he's talking about that type of thing to the media publicly, that says some things that could be concerned about that behind the scenes.

Like they've been trying to get this across to him, but it's just not resonating. Then they end up talking publicly about it. So that's the only reason, that's primarily the only reason that Ryan gave to why he thought Joshua Joseph may have fallen. Ketron Allen, who drafted in the sixth round, was the commander's second best value. He was expected to go around 130. He lasts until 187.

And I like this pick because I'm not the biggest Rashad White fan. If you look at Rashad White in his career, out of 63 running backs with 250 plus attempts, White ranks 54th in yards per rush, only 4.0, 54th in success rate and 52nd in yards after contact per rush. You look at that running back room and Crosky Merritt obviously had a very good and successful rookie season, but later on in the year, he'd lost some time

because due to some fumbling issues. He also only caught nine passes out of the backfield. They didn't necessarily trust him in that third down role. So Richard White, he's much better receiver back than he is, you know, an early downback. And so Shred Wright might play that role a little bit more. But I think Alan brings this solid floor as a running back. 27% of his carries came versus heavy boxes at Penn State. That was the number one highest rate of any running back in this class, 27%.

Still against heavy boxes only. He averaged 4.8 yards. Wow. Only 11% of his runs. What's the definition of a heavy box? How many? 8 plus. Okay, got it.

For this particular example, 8 plus. 11% of his run failed to gain yardage. That's a very low number. Third best of any running back in this class. When he was able to go against a light box, so we're talking six or fewer with the standard box being seven.

A light box, he averaged 7.0 yards per carry. That was fourth best in the class. And in addition, talking about third down roll, he was the third best path protecting running back in this entire class. So there are a lot of things to like about Patron Allen.

And running backs drafted in the late round, you know, some of these guys end up sitting in, landing, and sticking in working out. So I'm not that upset with that pick at all. I think that they got some good value there, and there's some things to like about him. The center that they drafted in the sixth round was the third best value, expected to go pick 168, drafted at 209. Then you look at Antonio Williams and Sunny styles. Both of these guys were drafted between two and five picks better than expected by the commander. So right in line with kind of like what the consensus was. And Antonio Williams obviously fills a role of a player that they that they really needed based upon people that I trust,

not my own evaluation here. He is going to be an efficient option because he's going to see some similarities in D.C. with what he saw in Clemson. They played an RPO-based scheme in Clemson. He operated primarily out of the SWAT. He only dropped 1.8% of his targets. last year, which is a massive improvement over 2024. And he transitions really well after the catch to being a runner. So some of those things like based upon how Washington might end up using him seems like a pretty good fit. The issue for Ryan was in terms of why Ryan gave the commanders a C plus draft grade as

opposed to draft capital saying they did the best job, is that how many of these guys are actually going to play and impactfully help the team? this year. Obviously, sunny styles sure fire, but the commanders didn't really have that many other higher drafts. Sure. Yeah, no, your metric measures the value of the player picked relative to where the player should have been picked. It doesn't measure the probability that the player will fit in, that there will be an opportunity for the player based on need, or even if there was an opportunity that the player will produce. Right, exactly. So you're not reaching for guys. You're getting good values on players. Some of these players could work out. Some of these players might help your team

this year or build to the future, increase some of the depth, those types of things. But, you know, so that goes in line with like the commanders. Yes, they did a great job with drafting value. Did their odds improve to win the division? Did their odds improve to win the Super Bowl? Anything you got? Not really, no. And it's not because they didn't have a good draft plus. It's just because, you know, they didn't have a lot of picks. And we don't have a lot of picks. you don't have as much opportunity to improve your roster overall that much. But the key is stacking things this year and next year and the year after that to get that solid floor because this is the exact opposite of the 49ers, right?

With the 49ers, when we talk about they did a poor job of drafting for value and they had eight picks this year. Well, if you're doing a poor job of drafting for value and you're constantly overdrafts players and you don't end up working out, then when you need to get to the 48th player, on your roster and the 51st player on your roster, those guys just aren't there. And, you know, it's clear as day to me, the reason that the 49ers have been winning their game is because of Trent Williams, who that's on the John Lynch draft pick, he's only there because he didn't like Dan Snyder. And now he's become one of the best left tackles in the entire NFL year and year out in the last couple years. Massive reasons why the 49ers have been doing well.

Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant, talking to some scouts. The scouts and sometimes the quarterback coach are primarily who make those types of things. And in fact, John Lynch revealed who led the team to select Brock Purdy. You know who was? Quarterback coach Brian Greene. It was Brian Greasy. Yeah. I remember Kyle talking about it. It was Greasy who basically identified Purdy and said, this guy can play. We got to draft him. Right. And then you look at Christian McCaffrey, who also was not a draft pick. That was a trade with Carolina Panthers. So we are talking about a general manager who is not drafting very well. And yes, they're winning games, but it's not because of how well he's drafting.

They just have a really good head coach. They got really lucky with Mr. Irrelevant, I'm not paying out for them. That does not happen very often. And Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey. Fred Warner was a great pick, round three. That was 2018. I mean, we're almost like 10 years, a whole decade away from that. Bosa, Debo.

I mean, they've had some picks, but you're right. You've got to go back. You've got to go back a ways. Right. And so we're not saying every pick that John Lynch makes it terrible. But the point is, as it relates to the commanders, I thought this is a very good draft. They did better than what they could have done with the value that they have

and the picks that they've had. They just need to keep stacking these, in my opinion. Keep stacking draft similar to this. Hopefully some years you'll have better books. Hopefully some years you'll have more opportunities, more swings. at the ball, you know, because you have more overall picks. And so you've got higher up picks and more of them. And you can just rinse and repeat this same strategy.

And the commanders are going to be a deeper roster and more equipped to withstand some injuries in the future. All right. I have one more question. You've been so generous with your time per usual. What you've explained on all six of their picks, the value in a proposition, with the exception of the seventh rounder, but it's okay to reach for a quarterback if you really like one when you get to that point. Was there an obvious other player at the same position

that would have been more valuable in any of their first five picks? You may have to do too much research to come up with that off the top of your head. But, like, as an example, I was surprised on Antonio Williams, even though that was a nice value pick with a guy like Ted Hurst, a guy like Zachariah Branch on the board there. I was surprised with that pick. Does anything pop in terms of, yes, they got value, but they could have actually got more value with the same position?

Well, I just got lucky and stumbled on this because you're right. It would take me actually, no, I was about to be, I was about to give you one. I would say the commander selected, let me see if this would work, The commander selected Antonio Williams at pick 71. Okay, this one would fit. If you just want to go pure value, Chris Brazzles was selected by the Carolina Panthers

at pick number 83. So after the commander selected Antonio Williams, Chris Brazzell was expected to go at pick number 57, which was a little bit earlier than what Antonio Williams is expected to go up pick number 66. So, you know, I luckily just stumbled upon this one. No, that's, okay, yeah. Another similarity would be Chris Bell, who was also a one-receiver.

Same round, right? Same round. They selected in pick number 94. He was expected to go pick number 54. Those two players are actually two, they rank number two and four in terms of the best steals, the best values of round three. And if you look at all of the skill players, all of the skill players, all of the skill players, rule out, you know, guards and cornerbacks and everything.

Just skill players, running back, tight ends, wide receivers. They are two of the top ten best steals of the entire draft. Chris Brasel and Chris Bell, selected by the Dolphins and the Panthers in round three before the commanders select, or after the commander's selected, Antonio Williams. So again, this would be one of those things where Antonio Williams, flight value, Chris Bell, Chris Brasel,

would they have given the commanders, though, what they were looking for at that position, right? Because those guys were expected to go a little bit earlier than in Tony Williams, but not by much. So you're targeting a wide receiver in round three. You're going after the guy who played an RPO heavy scheme, played the majority in the slot, transitions really well after the catch. Are those guys going to give you that same type of thing that you're looking for? If not, then it doesn't matter if they were better values in Tonya Williams, fit that mold. That's right. And those guys were, you know, good picked as well by those teams,

but I still think we'll see how the commanders end up fitting in Antonio Williams into that. But those are two examples of those are good ones. And I think that, you know, Antonio Williams, because he is primarily a slot receiver and the expectation that Brandon Iyuk might be a part of the team before the season begins. And so you've got Terry McClure and Brandon Ayyuk with someone like Williams perhaps working more inside, whereas the two examples you gave me were bigger outside guys. So that may be the reason. This was great. I really appreciate it. Hope you're well. And maybe we'll talk after the schedule comes out so we can talk about net rest advantages and disadvantages. That's your next big project, right?

That's the next big project. That'll be out sometime the second week, usually of May. and, you know, I've got the book that I'm working on now as well. So it's the off season, but it's not vacation time whatsoever, just because the draft is over. There's a lot to be done. I really start grinding and don't let up until that book is done. Usually the very first week of July, and after that I can just come up for a breather. It's a good.

It's a great book. Sharpfootballanalysis.com, and you can just link to it from Warren's X account at Sharp football. Thanks as always. Talk soon. Thanks, Kevin. Warren Sharp, everybody. All right, that'll do it for today. Back tomorrow with Tommy.