The Kevin Sheehan Show - Washington Leaning Daniels?
Episode Date: March 22, 2024Kevin opened with the NCAA Tournament and recent reports that Washington's brass is leaning Jayden Daniels at #2 in the NFL Draft. Kevin also had four more "Smell Test" picks for Friday's first-round ...NCAA games. Brad Spielberger/PFF jumped on to talk Commanders' and other NFL free agency along with which QB he likes for Washington in the draft. Download the PrizePicks app today and use code Sheehan for a first deposit match up to $100! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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show. Here's Kevin.
Let them drive, let them do what they want,
just stay on him, face guard him,
don't help. Galki comes off his screen,
fakes the three, now he'll take it.
Yes, sir!
Jack Golky last night for Oakland University,
10 made threes to lead the Golden Grizzlies,
I think that's their nickname,
over Kentucky in the game of day and night
number one in the NCAA tournament. Round one, that would be. Tommy had it. He had Oakland with the
upset. He also had Duquesne as an upset winner in the bracket that he filled out the other day.
The show's presenting sponsor, as always, is Windonation. Call them at 86690 Nation or head
to Windonation.com. Mention my name for a free estimate. One guest on the show today, Brad
Spielberger from PFF, will jump on with us in the next segment.
Brad is more of a salary cap guy and a free agency guy, but he will weigh in on what he thinks Washington should do with number two overall as well.
Speaking of Washington and the football franchise known now as the commanders, I'll get back to the tournament here in a moment.
But there was an interesting quote yesterday from Albert Breer.
Albert Breer was doing a radio appearance on an NBC sports radio program, I believe it was.
The audio was really rough, so I'm going to read you the quote, rather than play the audio for you.
He said, quote, 99% Caleb Williams to Chicago.
And the more I've asked around, the more Jaden Daniels is the leader in the clubhouse for the commanders.
and then he reiterated that at the end of the segment where he said,
the leader in the clubhouse as of right now for Washington at number two is Jaden Daniels.
You know, that follows the other day, and I don't think I mentioned this on the podcast this week,
but Eric Ed Holm from the NFL Network, who we've had on the show before,
was on Grant Paulson on 1067 The Fan.
And he said, quote, I heard from two different people,
that Washington could go Jaden Daniels.
I think Jaden would give them a higher floor immediately.
There are people who believe Drake's going to need, excuse me, a little more time.
Closed quote.
I personally still am not buying it.
Eric at home and Albert Breer are solid guys, Breer, a solid reporter.
I'm not buying that Washington's made up their mind at this point.
Could they be leaning Jaden Daniels?
Could people have somehow gotten some information, you know, in conversations with Adam Peters at the Combine or at the pro day the other day for Caleb Williams, another pro day today for J.J. McCarthy?
It's possible. It's also possible that, you know, they're head faking, that perhaps they know of a team that wants to move up to number two pretty badly for Jaden Daniels.
and they're trying to get some information out there.
I don't even think that's likely.
I think they're going through these pro days,
and the group as a whole is a meticulous, methodical group,
and they're not going to come to a conclusion
until they have all of the information.
This is not an impulsive ownership group,
and the people they've hired are not impulsive.
Impulse is what we,
did for 25 years. That's not the mode of operation anymore. You just had the first of four crucial
pro days. Pro days are more instructive for the evaluators than the combine. Now, nothing's more instructive
than the tape. Nothing's more instructive than a lot of the people you talk to in your due
diligence process on these guys. I'm certainly not suggesting that Eric Ed Holm,
or Albert Breer haven't heard from people that are credible that Washington may be leaning that way.
I just wonder if they actually are as a group.
As of this point, without all of the information in, and we are more than a month away from the draft,
I would bet that they have certainly feelings about Jaden Daniels and feelings about Drake May and J.J. McCarthy and Caleb Williams
and Pennix Jr. as well, along with Nix.
And there may be a personal lien at this point with each of them.
And those liens may be different.
But anyway, stay tuned, by the way, for Brad Spielberger,
because I've already recorded my conversation with Brad,
and he has a slightly different take on Washington at number two.
But Eric at home and now Albert Breer,
within the same week suggesting that they are hearing Washington and Jaden Daniels.
By the way, Washington added corner James Pierre yesterday.
He was primarily a reserve special teams contributor,
was an undrafted free agent by the Steelers back in 2020, another one-year deal.
Washington's got to lead the league this free agency period in one-year deals.
You're now talking about 13 of 21 now, I believe it is, or is it 14 of 22?
I think it's 17 new players, four that they had on their roster last year that they've re-signed.
So that would be, yeah, that would be at this point 21, and I think 13 of the 21 have one-year deals.
I don't know if that's a record.
I'm sure there are lots of teams in the back half, the back third of the roster, that there are a lot of
one-year deals. But this is in line with what they've been doing all along. Cautious, measured,
no risk of, you know, roster inflexibility down the road. Adam Peters is creating a situation
in which he has plenty of flexibility with the roster. And really, I think, his first major
imprint on the roster is the draft. It's very possible that you could view this free
agency period as Dan Quinn's first imprint on the roster, players that he is primarily familiar with
and players that will preach his sermon day in and day out in the locker room, aka culture.
But anyway, I will get to what Brad Spielberger thought of the free agency class,
who he likes Washington to take at number two. We'll talk some league stuff with Brad
as well. So I'll get to my smell test picks here in this opening segment for Friday,
two and one yesterday, two easy winners. I gave out Oakland and Gonzaga, and then Kansas was
certainly headed towards an easy win. I gave them out minus six and a half. They were up by 23,
and then Samford just got red hot. They actually got it down to a two-point game late. Kansas had
opportunities up seven to pull away. They missed some free throws, ended up being a four-point
win for Kansas. So I went two and one on the smell test yesterday, two and two overall. In that game,
by the way, there really was a horrible call. On a breakaway layup with under a minute to go,
there was a block shot by Oakland that was a clear-cut block shot. It was a great play. And
It was called a foul, and it sent Nicholas Timberlake for Kansas to the free throw line for two
free throws in a one-point basketball game.
It was 90 to 89 at that point.
They'd gotten it down to one.
I said two.
They'd gotten it down to one.
And he made both of those free throws, and then they missed a three to tie it.
But that block shot would have led to a runout for Sam,
down one with the ball with like 14 seconds to go, they would have had a chance.
That Kansas Samford game had an exciting ending, but the game of day one, night one,
was Oakland's upset over Kentucky.
And a lot of the post-game conversation wasn't about how great Oakland was and they were,
but it was about John Calipari and Kentucky.
Calipari's now not made it out of the first.
weekend of the tournament for three straight years. He actually hasn't been out of the second
round of the tournament since 2019, made it to the second weekend of the tournament since 2019,
in part because they didn't make the tournament one of those years. And the other year was a
COVID year. He's not going anywhere. I don't think he's going anywhere. Thirty-three million dollars
would be the buyout. John Calipari is a hell of a coach. However, we heard that,
this for different reasons the other day from Tony Bennett at Virginia.
Stylistically, he's going to look into making changes.
The headline off of the upset loss last night is Calipari to Mull changes after Kentucky's
first round exit.
Well, look, entering 2022, Kentucky was 19 and 0 against 14 seeds or lower in the NCAA tournament.
Now they're 0 in 2 since.
They lost to St. Peter's a 15 seed, and they lost last night to Oakland.
Jay Wright, the Villanova coach last night post-game, post-the-Kentucky loss,
summed up the issue perfectly.
It's an issue that teams like Kentucky have because they are so young.
Their team this year, they had 15 rostered players, eight were freshmen, three were sophomore.
Oakland, on the other hand, had one freshman, a pair of redshirt freshmen, and then five of their players were either seniors or grad transfers.
And we've seen this.
This is a game, especially with NIL now, and players getting more of an opportunity to get paid and stay longer.
The older teams have an advantage.
We've known Calipari to be one and done as a coach.
This is what he's mulling.
Jay Wright summed it up perfectly, I thought, last night in the postgame show.
The era of taking these young freshmen and trying to play against older players is over.
I think he did a phenomenal job with these guys all year, getting them to be as successful as they were.
You can see they're playing against grown men.
The guys on Kentucky will be far better pros than any of these guys on Oakland or any of these guys in the tournament.
but they're not as good college basketball players.
At this point in their career, they're not as disciplined yet as the guys from Oakland.
And it's not Kyle's fault.
It's their 18 years old, and they're in this era where everyone's telling them how great they are.
Just show up in college and you're going to win.
It doesn't happen that way.
And the more of the guys stay in college because of NIL is going to be tougher for young teams like this to be successful.
I thought Jay Wright summed it up perfectly there.
We'll see if Calipari and others like Calipari, listen, there's a massive difference in physical maturity between an 18-year-old and a 24-year-old. Usually there is. Now, you won't have the COVID year moving forward, so you won't end up with 25-year-olds as a general rule, but with the grad transfer rule and with NIL money, as Jay Wright pointed out, keeping guys in school longer that aren't first-round NBA guys. It's going to be hard for young teams. You watched Kentucky down the stretch. They panicked.
know, I'll tell you, we're really showed. I thought that they were very undisciplined defensively.
And that takes time. You know, it takes time defensively to, you know, build your team into what you
want it to be because young players typically take longer to develop defensively. There's not a lot of
it at the high school or the AAU level. You know, there's just a lot of games and it's a lot of offense.
on display. Kentucky's got some great players. I love Dillingham, by the way. I think he's going to be
a really good NBA player five years from now as a point guard. But interesting stuff from Jay Wright,
for sure. The rest of the day in terms of day one, I thought Carolina was really impressive. I know
it's Wagner, but their pace of play and the athletes they have is fun to watch. The same with Illinois,
man is Terrence Shannon just so good he's going to be a good pro too I mean he's a top half of the draft they've got two three four pros on that team three at least at Illinois I just don't like the way they guard to be honest with you NC State another win five last week at the ACC tournament they beat as an 11 seed as six seed in Texas Tech and DJ Burns was outstanding again in that game the play
place was going nuts when he got the ball and started to back down six nine you know every bit of
three bills i'm guessing um but so so skilled uh he is um what else from day one dayton's big
comeback was pretty impressive washington state's comeback was pretty impressive and man iso
uh he just gets his teams to play their best ball tournament time they have talent that should have
produced more during the regular season, but does it really matter now? They get Carolina next.
All right, let's get to the smell test for today. And the smell test, as always, is presented by
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tournaments available, lots of contests, MyBooky, fair point spreads, fair money lines, fair totals,
fair pricing. Go to my bookie.orgie.orgie.org, use my promo code, Kevin, D.C. So two and one
yesterday, that makes me two and two on the tournament so far because I had Boise in the first four.
Kansas just let me down last night.
They had that easily covered.
But give Samford credit, they came roaring back.
And Kansas looked like they were a little out of gas.
They're a little bit thin right now with some of their injuries.
All right.
You know, the Big Ten went two and oh yesterday.
The SEC struggled.
Maybe this is the year the Big Ten strikes back.
I actually almost gave out Michigan State yesterday.
I kind of like them.
I like three Big Ten teams today.
Let's start with an early game. Northwestern is getting four against Florida Atlantic. The public's on Florida Atlantic. I'll take Northwestern plus the four. Nebraska is another Big Ten team that I like today. Nebraska is laying one now against Texas A&M. Take the Huskers laying the point against A&M. And then I really like Wisconsin.
later on. Everybody loves James Madison right now. One of the best teams in the country, 31 regular
season wins on a 13-game winning streak. Wisconsin is a five-and-a-half-point favorite.
It's interesting that the public has gotten used to these five-twelves in particular, and they
love to take the 12s. I'll take Wisconsin and lay the five-and-a-half. And then there's one other game,
and this would seem kind of contrary to the way I usually do it.
But an 11 seed in Nebraska, they are actually favored over Clemson.
Typically, that would mean I'm going to be on Clemson.
No, the public loves Richard Petino's team.
Yeah, Richard Petino, that would be Rick Petino's son, who was at Minnesota.
He's now at New Mexico.
They're laying two and a half.
The lower-seated team favored over a big-seated team or a higher-seated team.
I would have in the past had that lower-seated team.
Not today.
there is more public action on New Mexico than just about anybody today.
I'll take Clemson.
So the smell test is Northwestern plus four, Nebraska minus one, Wisconsin minus five and a half,
and Clemson plus two and a half.
I'll tweet the picks out and I'll tweet the picks out for Saturday and Sunday.
Follow me at Kevin Sheehan, D.C.
Brad Spielberger next right after these words from a few of our sponsors.
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All right.
Jumping on with us right now is Brad Spielberger.
Brad is the salary cap analyst at Pro Football Focus.
Really does a great job covering free agency for PFF.
You can follow him on X on Twitter at PFF underscore Brad.
Brad, thanks, as always, for jumping on and doing this.
How would you categorize last week in terms of the activity,
the intensity it seemed like of the activity for the first couple of days
compared to previous years.
Yeah, it was pretty quick out of the gate for the first 48 hours or so.
We obviously get a lot of big deals in the first couple days during that legal tampering window
and that dumb title we give it now.
But yeah, I think you saw also just a lot of teams letting big players go, right?
I mean, Kirk Cousins is a deal hunter leaving Minnesota, some of those Houston guys
going back to Minnesota like Jonathan Granard and others.
So I think that was a big thing too, is that as always we got a couple of guys returned to
their incumbent team right before Free agency began. But I think less so than normal did we have that.
I think more guys truly did switch teams this year it felt like.
Do you know specifically why there is a 48-hour, or it's actually a little bit longer than 48 hours,
it's 52 hours of a legal tampering period? What's the purpose of it?
It's a great question. I think we wanted to, to some degree, allowed to.
teams to make decisions before they had to get their books in order and sort everything out
because you don't have to be cap compliant or anything like that until, like you said,
the 52 hours later, at 4 p.m. Eastern on the 13th Wednesday is when the new league year
actually starts. So maybe that's part of it. Like, hey, here's a grace period. You can make
some moves, but you don't have to process them until later. So you can figure out, all right,
we're going to sign these guys. Therefore, we now need to cut these players or get a pay cut,
to get a restructure going.
So it maybe enables you to make some decisions where, let's say you don't sign a player,
you miss out on a free agent, say, okay, now we're not going to cut this guy or ask me to take
a pay cut or whatever.
Maybe that's it, but I couldn't really tell you.
All right.
Well, we have obviously been obsessed for the last, you know, two weeks here or 10 days,
whatever it's been, talking about Washington's class.
So we have had a lot of opinions on it.
but I'm interested in yours, somebody who studies salary cap, understands, contract value, et cetera.
How would you describe what Adam Peters did in his first year as the general manager, at least so far?
Yeah, I actually really like what they've done so far.
I talked a little bit about, you know, on some national spots, maybe even in Washington,
that I had expected them to be one of the biggest spenders in all of free agency.
I heard there was some, you know, some pressure, some motivation to get a bunch of good talent.
You're trying to get a new stadium built.
You're trying to revitalize the fan base.
And, you know, new owners come in and sometimes have this kind of new owner syndrome, so to speak,
where they just want to make these huge splashes.
And they didn't really do that.
They spent a good amount on mid-tier players, which really is what free agency is about.
And also the particular positions, you get, you know, centers and linebackers and, you know,
rotational type of edge rushers, like a Doran's Armstrong, like everything they did, I think
is how you're supposed to operate in pre-agency, which is you get good young talent at depth or at
non-premian spots.
They may expect a little bit extra, you know, like you could probably nitpick of, you know,
was the Beiotrish feel pretty strong for him?
Yes.
Was the Doran's Armstrong deal strong for him?
Yes.
I actually thought the Frankie Louvre deal was a slam dunk for all parties, good value for the team.
But anyway, so, yeah, so I actually really, really like what they did.
because now you drop in the five top 100 picks, you let those guys be your premium position,
franchise cornerstone guys that you hopefully pay top dollar to.
But I commend them for not making some massive splash on one or two players
and instead spreading that money out over a bunch of guys.
So it sounds like Louvo would be your favorite signing?
Who'd say it again?
It sounds to me like Frankie Louvue would be your favorite of their signing.
so far? Yeah. Yeah, I think it's fair to say. He brings a fun pass rush element. He plays his
hair on fire coming forward and can crash and attack and shed blocks and get through gaps.
And I also like how he pairs with Jim and Davis as that will as that coverage guy, that dropper.
You know, I think they work well in tandem. And you kind of see that spot next to Jim and Davis
getting neglected a little bit so far in his career. And that is not the case at all now anymore.
So they're a good combination, and I just like how Dan Quinn now is going to be able to deploy
Frankie Lovu in a bunch of different ways.
Like I said, you will add that pass rush element too, because obviously you still need more off
the edge, not saying he's going to play edge rusher, but you're not there yet in terms of
who you have on the edge.
So it's good to add other ways to manufacture pressure, and Lovu is one of those guys.
Was there a signing that you didn't like that they made?
Not really anything that I hated.
I said, I mean, I do think you could say a couple of the deals they made.
We're pretty strong for the player, right?
Like, I do think Tyler Beiotic is a very, very good high floor center.
There's no question about that in my mind.
I think he was a 10 million a year player.
Not really.
You know, and we got some signal early on.
Andre James goes back to the Raiders for $8 million a year.
I thought James was a very comfortable player to Beaudish.
But to me, it's like, okay, well, you know you're taking a rookie quarterback second overall.
you should get in a veteran, very high floor, good pass protector.
He's apparently a very smart guy going back to Wisconsin.
He'll call out the protections.
He will help a rookie quarterback more than maybe any other region could have.
And in that scenario, yeah, spend a couple extra dollars.
I don't mind it one bit.
What did you think of their strategy at backup quarterback with Mariotta?
Yeah, I think he is a fit with what Cliff Kingsbury wants to do.
He's a guy that has the athletic ability and can throw in a very, very far down field.
He's a running-and-shoe type of quarterback, and it makes a lot of sense that there would be a connection there between those two people.
They would appreciate each other's skill sets and what they're good at.
So, you know, I think it makes sense.
I think you had to get some type of bridge in.
I wouldn't mind keeping Bressett either, but I think they wanted like a dual threat, an athlete that has, you know, some experience in this run-and-gun type of offense.
I think it made a lot of sense. Again, it was a little bit rich, maybe, but nothing too crazy there.
What do you think is next? They still have an S load of cap space. It's either tops in the league
or second, depending on which of these sites, you know, I know you're a contributor to over the
cap, so I just pulled over the cap up. It looks like after the last couple, Davis and the one
yesterday, they've got about 49 to 50 million roughly. What's next? Do you think, if
anything in free agency or will they save this for what should be a hefty
rookie class, including a number two overall?
Yeah, so I think that there's no more splashes, but I do think you could see them
at, I would guess some of the markets that have moved slower, you know, which to me
as in the secondary, there are still some names out there, both at safety and a corner.
Obviously, they do not retain Kendall Fuller or Cameron Curl.
I really wonder what's going on with Cameron Curl on that market and how it was so, you know,
he's just very, very weak and why Washington wasn't interested at that price point.
But anyway, there's still a ton of talent left at both of those spots.
So maybe you add maybe a veteran presence to that secondary, you know, for cheap,
because there are still a lot of names out there.
But in terms of larger splashes, I doubt we see any.
You know, I had suggested before Free Agency started that I didn't think that there were going to be big,
long-term, expensive deals done.
one of the reasons potentially could have been,
you know, Josh Harris had to bring on 20 plus limited partners
just to buy this team less than a year ago.
It's the largest ownership group other than the publicly held Green Bay Packers
in the NFL now and that, you know, the outlay of a lot of cash
and potentially even, you know, money put into escrow
if they were going to spend most of the cap might be a bit of a challenge for them.
thought there was a chance they could take some back-end loaded contracts and put them into this
salary cap year. Like John Allen, most of his cap hit is here in the final two years of his deal,
well, the final year of his deal, which is 2025. You know, we've seen some of that before.
I even brought up, and you'll appreciate this, I even brought up the Brock Osweiler deal,
where essentially, you know, they traded cap space the Browns did for draft picks, if you recall.
But anyway, could we see any of that, or do you think they'll just take what they have in cap space when they're all done with this season and just push it forward to 2025?
Yeah, so, you know, I do think when you're in now this mode, you probably will have some more front-loaded deals.
you know, another example we always talked about is when the Niners went to, when the
Gropolo went to the Niners, they didn't, you know, push that money out and prorated.
They kept a lot of hits early, which then enabled them to have some of these lower cap hits
and cash outlays.
And later years of the deal, and they were able to spend around it.
So, yeah, I think that could be a thought process here is don't structure these deals to
push a bunch of money down the line.
But instead, take the hits early.
And then you said, they still have around, you know, after the draft class,
we still have them having around $35 million in cap space.
That's what everyone signed from this loaded, you know, in big draft class.
So, yeah, you could just carry that over.
You're allowed to carry over any unused cap space.
You could roll that forward again.
And then let's say, you know, the rookie quarterback looks great.
Then maybe you do kind of spend a little bit more aggressively and competitively, you know, going forward.
And just for everybody's understanding, we've had this explained to us before.
But essentially there are like three-year period.
I think it is, and we're at the beginning of one, 24, 25, 26, where over the three years,
you've got to spend 89% of kind of the aggregate salary cap.
Is that the minimum spend rule, or maybe you know it and can explain it better?
Yeah, so last year just ended a window where it was three years for you to spend 90% is the new
CBA.
You've got to spend 90% of the key.
Yeah, so now we're in a four-year window, and this is the first year of it.
So over the next four seasons, including this year, 2024, you have to spend on aggregate 90% of the unadjusted salary cap, though, right?
So if you carry over cap space, let's say the cap is $300 million next year, just to make it easy.
If commanders carry $20 million over, they don't spend 90% of that $320.
You still defend 90% of just a $300 in cap.
So not to get too convoluted, but, but anyway, yeah.
So 90% over the next four years, and you'll see, a lot of teams will kind of stagger it.
The Bears, I'm not going to say they traded for Montes Sweat to hit the cash minimum,
but they were probably there by the time they did that move.
They were very, very close the whole season.
But that was an example of a team that was like, you know, all right, we're near that margin.
We're going to be patient, but we are going to have to get there at some point, and then that move happens.
That's interesting.
I didn't even think of it.
So the Bears really in that last year of the three-year window had to get to the minimum.
And so the trade for sweat and then the immediate significant extension helped them get there.
If I had to tell you a guess right now, I would say they were probably like within $5 million under or over by that time.
Like before the season started, they were not there.
And they spent a little bit in free agency, but still not a ton.
They made a couple mid-tier moves.
They did, you know, Trade Emmons was a big contract.
But I remember going into the year, I was saying, okay, like, they could get there with just if certain guys go and I are and they just, you know, to sign more players and stuff.
You know, obviously there's the in-season small moves that add up over the course of 17 weeks.
Like I said, I wasn't to be tabs on a weekly basis, but I do think, but when they made that trade, it may have been a couple million under.
All right, let's just go get Montez's sweat.
We'll give them a massive, you know, four-year extension, and then we're good.
All right.
Let's take a quick break, and when we come back, Brad will talk about which teams around the league did well in free agency, which teams didn't, and we'll get his thoughts on the quarterbacks in the draft, right after these words from a few of our sponsors.
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We continue with PFF's Brad Spielberger.
I'll ask Brad about his preference of quarterbacks for Washington at number two here in a bit.
But let's talk league here for a moment with most of the free agency damage being done.
Give me a team that you think did really well or has done really well so far.
Yeah, I think I really like so far what Minnesota and Houston have done kind of in two different directions.
And they obviously swapped a lot of their rosters.
But Houston understanding where they are right now with CJ Stroud.
but at the same time, not going too crazy.
I love it.
Every deal they gave out, essentially, is a two-year contract.
And I say that because if Straub plays at the same level he has the last year,
in two years from now, he'll be signing the biggest contract in NFL history.
So they set it up to where once his money could hypothetically kick in,
all these contracts will be coming off their books,
and they can, you know, retool and prepare for life with a veteran quarterback on that massive deal.
So I like that.
And the flip side is Minnesota, where the Vikings just finally accepted and acknowledged,
this is probably not going to work with Kirk Cousins because we just,
where our defenses is very, very talentless right now,
and we just get to pay Justin Jefferson over $30 million a year.
We can't spend on the quarterback and do all of those things.
So let him walk, let the Neil Hunter walk, to Houston, and get cheaper and get younger.
And now I love the nucleus.
It built where he's drop in a rookie quarterback,
which we all expect them to do.
I probably try to trade up in the top five somewhere,
and I think it could work pretty quickly
because they got a lot of big deals off their books.
Did they need to pay Darnold $10 million?
So that's funny because it's almost one of these,
like you pay a little bit of a premium
so that you can tell other teams, like,
oh, we don't need to trade up with you, right?
Like if they were calling the Arizona finals before,
you know, and Nick Mullins was their starting quarterback,
it's probably a more difficult conversation.
That sounds dumb,
but it probably is part of the calculus there.
But no, they did not need to give Sam Donald a 100% raise
after he threw 46 patents last year.
That's an interesting strategy.
I bet they could have accomplished the same thing for less money.
I would agree with you.
There were some of those bridge options out that we talked about.
Is there a player that just got an unbelievable deal
that perhaps he shouldn't have?
and then on the flip side, where did the team get the absolute best value on a player?
Yeah, so I won't think he shouldn't have, but Chris Wilkins' contract was just the perfect marriage of timing
and the market exploding with Chris Jones being able to match the Aaron Donald deal.
Before that, every team had been able to sign these extensions for defensive tackles
and just treat the Donald contract as a total outlier.
We saw in Washington, Durand Payne gets $22.5 million per year.
Dexter Lawrence gets the fame.
Then there was, you know, 23, 23 and a half, 24 for Clinton and Williams.
You then see Justin Matabeeke right before free agency starts,
time for $24.5 million.
So every single contract not named Aaron Donald was just as incremental raise over the prior player.
When Christian Wilkins doesn't get franchise tagged and then Chris Jones signed his, you know,
monster monster deal, which had the same $95 million over three as Aaron Donald.
It said, okay, we can't ignore those contracts anymore.
So, Christian Wilkins signs for four years 110 million,
$27.5 million per year.
He gets about $85 million over the first three years of the contract,
which is a massive cash outweigh.
It was the best contract signed by a player, and he's awesome.
But he's 28 years old.
he's not a great pass rusher.
He's a fine pass rusher.
I mean, he might be the best run defender in the NFL,
but, you know, you don't really pay as much for that as you do for the pure pass rush.
So that's that example.
In terms of this deal, I think Josh Uchi going back to the Patriots, it was just a shock.
Like, you know, and every year we do get the reports that, hey,
this player could have signed a much bigger contract elsewhere,
but he chose to stay for whatever reason.
I'm not sure I've ever seen an insider's tweet.
out the actual terms of the deal, where Tom Pelliseros said it was a two-year, $15 million
offer with $11.5 million guaranteed. He chose to sign a one-year $3 million deal plus
incentives for whatever reason to go back to New England. I don't really get why, but it's a
deal for the Patriot. By the way, back to Vegas for a second. Did Minchu get a deal that was
awfully healthy for him? Yeah, that one, again, like he was great last year. He was great last year.
He was able to be a borderline playoff team stepping into a young Colts roster that definitely was the greatest in the world.
I just, there were so many options available for the back of quarterback.
Right.
Getting him two years 25 million, it certainly was a bit rich.
And like you just did the Gropolo deal last year.
You still need to trade up for a quarterback or find a quarterback in some form or fashion.
Yeah, I, you know, if they don't get a rookie quarterback, I don't know what they're doing.
They're spending a ton of money to probably still be a borderline playoff team.
Yeah, it's almost like, you know, there's this group of quarterbacks,
whether it's, you know, Minchu or Brissette or Mariotta.
They're all in, you know, a bunch.
And then maybe you've got guys like Hal and Heineke.
Those are the first two that come to mind for me.
But I wonder if Minshu actually, because he's been so productive on teams that have actually been in the
hunt for a postseason birth with him taking a significant number of snaps.
I mean, he's played well almost every opportunity he's gotten if the league viewed him
as a bit more than a backup.
No, for sure.
He is.
He does deserve to be in that echelon of like, you know, he'll now get a bunch of bridge
opportunities.
They'll go places where they sign him and say, if the rookie's not ready, you're going to
be the starter.
You'll have a decently long leash, but if things go south, then maybe you'll lose the
job, but we're not, this isn't just a band-day.
Like, we think you could be a guy.
At the same time, though, you watched the phone from last year.
Like, he is limited athletically and physically in what he's able to do.
There were a ton of dangerous throws, and he kind of got lucky at times with not throwing
as many interceptions as he could have.
So, yeah, I'm not an anti-guard or mention guy.
I just, is he, based on contracts, if he really that much better than, you know,
Jacoby Reset for one year, $8 million, I'd probably say no.
Yeah, his contract was certainly one of the more interesting ones, I thought, among the quarterbacks who were that perceived backup quarterback pool.
You mentioned Cameron Curl earlier.
Why did he get the deal that he got ultimately?
Was it just because there were too many safeties available?
No, so that happens pretty much every offseason.
You know, there's always a ton of safeties available.
Kind of on the flip side.
Like, you know, everyone was young at me.
I had Geno Stone's projection at two years, 13-9.
million. And everyone's like, you're a moron. He had eight, whatever, seven, eight interceptions
last year. He signed a two-year, $14 million deal. We've learned from a lot of these
contracts. In years past, I projected way too many guys that position to do well. And at the end of
the day, the supply exceeds the demand, and it brings a lot of them down. But that said,
Xavier McKinney signed for $17.5 million a year. And Powell Dugger did get the transition tag.
We'll see what ultimately happens there with Dugger. I have a feeling no one's going to make a
super strong offer sheet, if at all, and he'll go back to the wings on a modest deal.
But Curl, for two years up to $13 million, and I still haven't even seen the base value of
that actual contract. I'm sure it's, you know, two years 11, two years 12.
It's still a phenomenal value for the Rams. Like, even with the context and understanding
that this is a market that really struggles in free agency, and I know he hasn't, you know,
had an interception in three seasons now since his rookie year, but he is third in the NFL
in defensive stops among
safetys over the last three or four seasons.
Like, he's a all-around good player.
I agree.
He's a special talent.
No, you went to seventh round for a reason,
but a very, very good football player,
I'm still surprised, even though, you know, again,
you are right that there's always more supply than demand
and a lot of safety struggle to get these good contracts in time.
All right.
Justin Fields to Pittsburgh for the conditional sixth,
why wasn't there a more robust market for?
were him.
I think the big thing is what we've been talking about is there were just, people didn't
play the musical chairs game with the quarterbacks well enough.
When they were sitting there saying he was going to get a first round pick or what have
you, I was just like, where?
Who's going to offer from that contract?
You have Kirk Cousins go into Atlanta, we all knew it was going to happen, you know,
Baker Mayfield tells the spot, you know, and even the backup spots, even the guys
are talking about, the Gardner, Minchus, the Bresset, the, the Drew Locke, go to the Giants,
Tyrod Taylor, the Jets.
Like, there were so many available.
high-end number two, and obviously we probably still think Fields should or could be a starter
in this league, but there were just so few opportunities for that to happen.
So I think that's the big thing.
I know there's been reports that there were stronger offers out there.
My understanding is none of them involved a pick better than day three anyway.
So maybe there was a fifth or a fourth instead of a six, and obviously there are conditions
to make it a fourth.
But yeah, I really think you just came down to not even really so much about Justin Fields,
but just he's an unknown, he's an unproven commodity.
There are question marks.
He has to work through.
And there were just so many other options available.
Yeah, I'm surprised you didn't focus more on the contract in the fifth year option
because I was talking about this the other day.
If Pittsburgh doesn't pick up that fifth year option, which I think the odds suggest that they won't,
then you're looking at a one-year $3.6 million deal.
I think that's what's left for him here in year four.
Like, I just can't believe other teams weren't interested in just a one-year,
like all the teams that did one-year rentals, essentially,
why they didn't choose him.
But there must be something more than that.
You don't think Pittsburgh will pick up that fifth-year option, do you?
No, so that's a great point.
So no, it's a zero-per-s chance.
And I think that is my answer to be why.
Why did Howell and Kenny Pickett and those guys arguably fetch a better return?
is that question, because I think it is a one-year deal.
They're not picking up a $25 million fully guaranteed option on Justin Fields.
So, yeah, that's the thing.
The control, two years of control as a backup is better.
Yeah, you know, obviously you have to kind of cater your offense to a different approach.
He's not some safe, you know, can he picket-type player who has no ceiling,
but has also arguably a higher floor.
All right.
I lied.
I've got one more for you.
Tell me who Washington picks at number two and who they,
should pick at number two.
They should pick Drake May.
I think they're going to take Drake May.
I know we've heard a lot of Jaden Daniels buzz from people that are going to be connected to the
team or just know things about the NFL draft, the NFL at large.
I think Drake May is a clearly superior prospect to Jaden Day.
I don't think it's frankly super close.
I think from a tool standpoint, his arm is bigger.
I think he throws over the middle of the field at a way higher clip.
He's also better at avoiding letting pressure turn to stats.
Jake Daniel is one of the worst who's seen in a while there.
When he does scramble,
Drake May also does run a lot when he scrambles.
And that sounds dumb.
I'm trying to say is we look at now when you do take off,
do you still look to throw when you're scrambling or do you just, you know,
tuck it and run?
You know, Caleb Williams kind of gets talked about if he scrambled too much,
actually when he scrambled, he throws the ball over 60% of the time.
Drake May is about 45.
Jane Daniel's like 25.
So anyway, he's obviously younger by a couple of years, too.
There's more upsized potential, more growth.
I think they would be crazy not to take Drake and May 2nd overall.
All right.
Well, we will agree to disagree on that one,
and I won't hit you with my pressure to sack percentage context for Jaden Daniels
because my audience has heard it too many times over the last couple of weeks.
I love it.
I love it.
I love it next time.
We'll do it next time.
Thank you so much for your time, Brad.
Appreciate it, as always.
Yes, of course, thank you.
Brad Spielberger, PFF.
Enjoyed that conversation with Brad.
All right, we are done for the day back on Monday.
