The Kevin Sheehan Show - Washington Over New Orleans

Episode Date: October 8, 2021

Kevin solo today picking Washington to beat New Orleans on Sunday at Fed Ex. His preview, his keys, and a lot more on the game. He also weighed in on a few things Jack Del Rio and Scott Turner said yesterday. 10 Smell Test picks plus a thought or two on Maryland-Ohio State, Navy-SMU, and Virginia Tech-Notre Dame as well.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. Snap was into the gut of Stafford who airs it out for Jackson. There he is. Deshawn Jackson.

Big play for the Rams inside the 15. That pass from Matt Stafford to Deshawn Jackson came midway through the third quarter. The Rams had three points at the time. last night. I'm going to talk a little bit about last night's game here momentarily because I actually thought, as Ron Rivera would say, thought it was an interesting game for several reasons, which I will detail here coming up. The baseball yesterday, there wasn't a competitive game on day one of the AL divisional round. You had Dusty's Astros rolling the socks six to one. And then last night. Boston got shut out by Tampa Bay. In that game, Randy Oroz Arena became the first player

in Major League Baseball history to steal home and hit a home run in the same game. This is my favorite time of year, one of my favorite times of the year. I love playoff baseball, and today's one of those days, it's great. You get a quadruple header. You get game two of White Sox Astros, game one of Braves Brewers, game two of Red Sox Rays, and then late night tonight, you get Dodgers Giants game one out in San Francisco in the Bay Area. This is the most combined wins in Major League Baseball history for a playoff series, 106 for the Dodgers, 107 for the Giants. The 213 combined is the most. They are arch rivals. And I was reading this before the show today. Several sports books out in Vegas and in other places could take a bath if the Giants

win the World Series. They were 100 to 1 before the season started. They were 10 to 1 as recently as late July. Now, the Dodgers are the favorites in this series. They're a favorite in game 1 tonight, but they are also about a minus 155 minus 160 favorite for the series as well. So you've got baseball all weekend long, some really good college football, including tonight. There's a smell test pick for a Friday night game, which I will get to a little bit later on. And then you've got the NFL Sunday as well. I'm flying solo today, no coolly today, hopefully next week. He's got a lot going on with his high school football team, so he will try to catch up with

us next week. Plenty on the Sunday showdown between Washington and New Orleans. I'll have my Washington beats the Saints if we will go through. some of the reasons and some of the keys to a win. I actually think it's a very winnable game. I've got the smell test today. Also, a couple of things from yesterday's pressers. Jack Del Rio spoke, Scott Turner did,

and I'm going to play for you a couple of things that I thought were interesting from those pressers. This morning on the radio show, if you want to download the Odyssey app or go to the Team 980.com, you can hear my weekly conversation with Ron Rivera. talked a lot about Taylor Heineke. He talked a lot about the defensive issues, the third down issues.

He also named the player on the team that has been the most pleasant of surprises. Also had Bobby A Bear on the show as well. Bobby still hosting afternoon drive sports talk radio, WWL down there in New Orleans, the longtime NFL quarterback and Saints quarterback. So you can listen to those from the radio show this. morning at the team 980.com or by downloading the Odyssey app. As far as this podcast goes, I'd ask that you subscribe if you can. It doesn't cost you a thing really helps us. And also, and I know we're asking a lot, and many of you have delivered in a big way, and I appreciate it

very much. But if you can rate us and review us, wherever you can, typically Apple podcast, Spotify and Google, that really helps. These advertisers really are. interested in the shows that not only have the downloads, which we have, but the loyal audience, the excited audience, the audience that really enjoys the show. And that's typically reflected more in the ratings and reviews. So if you can do that, that would be great. I'll get to Washington in New Orleans here in a moment. I did want to just take a couple of minutes to talk about the game last night. It wasn't the thriller that a lot of the prime time games have been this year. But it was an interesting game. There were a couple of things about

this game that were interesting. The big news coming out of the game was the injury to Russell Wilson. According to Pete Carroll, a badly injured finger. I don't know how long he'll be out, but I do know after last night who more likely than not will replace him. And that's part of what I wanted to talk about, which is what Gino Smith did when he came into the game in the fourth quarter. for Russell Wilson. But before that, there were a couple of things about this game. First of all, the Rams, three and oh, two weeks ago, they get blown out by Arizona last Sunday. And then they've got three points midway through the third quarter. This vaunted offense, this, you know, favorite to win the NFC championship, maybe to win the Super Bowl, certainly one of the favorites

after they beat up on the Buccaneers, 34 to 24. And now all of a sudden, typical of the NFL, once you think you've got something figured out about a team. Oh, the Rams. The Rams of the team to beat. They get crushed by Arizona in their home park, and they've got three total points on the road in a Thursday night game against a defense that is not very good, Seattle's defense. Seattle's defense gave up, you know, 30 to the Titans, 30 to the Vikings. They did win a big game last week, 2821 against the Niners. And a lot of people thought the Rams would roll up some big numbers in this game. And maybe Seattle would too, because the Rams defense hasn't been that great.

But once you think you have it figured out, and the NFL things changed. So there we were watching this game thinking, well, what happened to the Rams in two weeks? What's happened to them offensively? Well, that 68-yard pass from Stafford to Jackson in the third quarter started this stretch for Stafford, where he got absolutely white-hot. He went 10 for 13 for 218 yards in a touchdown to finish the game. They had three points. They scored 23 in the last quarter and a half.

He was missing people by six feet over their head in the first half. He threw an interception, terrible interception, into the end zone in the first half. And then he got super hot, finished 25 of 37, for 365 yards, a touchdown, and that first half interception. And the Rams won the game 26 to 17. There were three other things that I wanted to mention from this game. First of all, there was one of these situations in the first half

where I knew the analytics people were going to be killing the coach for a decision. In this particular situation, it was Sean McVeigh, who was the coach. The score was 7 to nothing with a minute to go in the first half, and they had, the Rams did, a fourth and two at the Seattle 13-yard line. I knew the fourth-down analytics people would be saying, if he kicks a field goal here, it's one of the worst decisions. It'll lower the win probability from X percent to this percent. And, you know, the expected points added if you go, all the analytics stuff.

You know, the fourth-down people would be out en masse on social media. And of course they were. But it was one of those situations where I checked social media to make sure that they were going nuts because they were dead wrong this time. And Sean McVey was right. And you had to be watching the game and understand the context of what was going on in that game to know why Sean McVey, who by the way is not hesitant to go for fourth downs, but why he sent his field goal kicker out there. And it didn't have anything to do with like a serious injury to the quarterback or the running back or the wide. receiver. It was that they just were completely out of sync offensively in that first half. And the third and one play that preceded the fourth and two play was a one-yard loss.

Sony-Michel getting hit in the backfield. And it's at Seattle. That crowd's pretty loud. And it's down there in the red zone. And the crowd's loud and it's fourth and two. And right before that down, my immediate thought was, I bet you he kicks the field goal. because he feels, like I felt watching the game, and maybe many of you did too, that there's no chance they're going to get this fourth down. I don't care what the historical fourth and two based on this kind of offense versus this guy,

I don't care about any of that. If you're watching the game in the moment, it really felt like there was much less than a 50-50 probability of getting that fourth down. They kicked the field goal seven to three, and I just thought it was the right decision. In the second half, by the way, there was a play. Michael Dixon is the punter for Seattle.

He had a punt blocked, and then he picked it up and kicked it again, and he had a hell of a kick on the second punt. Very rare that you see two punts on one particular play. It is legal if you punt from behind the line of scrimmage for your second punt. I guess there's no limit on how many times you can punt. have it blocked, picked up, and punt it again, as long as you were behind the line of scrimmage. It certainly, however, did not look like he was behind the line of scrimmage on his second punt. But they allowed it, and it was a big play for Seattle to get that pun off.

But it probably should have been an illegal punt in that particular situation, and it was not reviewable. Last thing I wanted to mention about the game last night. I know I'm doing probably too much on a Thursday night game that really does. doesn't have a whole hell of a lot to do with our Washington football team. But I just thought the game last night had so much to it. Russell Wilson got hurt, and he got hurt, and he was playing hurt, and then there came a time in which Pete Carroll said, enough is enough. He's not playing anymore.

And that happened early in the fourth quarter with the Rams leading the game, 16 to 7. And after a Rams punt, Seattle having the ball first and 10 from their own two-yard line. down 16 to 7 early in the fourth quarter. And so Gino Smith came into the game. He is the backup in Seattle. And Gino Smith really just started to deal. I mean, he drove Seattle 98 yards for a touchdown, through a touchdown pass to D.K. Metcalfe.

10 plays 98 yards, 5.5 minutes, and all of a sudden it's 16 to 14. Gino Smith. More on him in a minute. the Rams answer with a touchdown drive, and then it's 2314, and here's Gino Smith. You know, six minutes or so left in the fourth quarter driving Seattle down the field again. This time they're forced to kick a field goal, but it's 23 to 17. They're still in the game.

Seattle needs one stop, and then we're going to give the ball back to Gino Smith to see if he can pull off one of the all-time reserve roll miracles, considering not that they were down by a lot of lot, but they're on 16 to 7 and they were starting at their own two-yard line, and it's Gino Smith, with Aaron Donald lined up on the other side of the line of scrimmage. They got the ball back with a stop, and with 209 left from their own 16-yard line, he had an opportunity to drive them 84 yards for a game-winning touchdown. The first in 10 play was an interception. The game was over.

The Rams won the game. They ended up kicking a field goal because Seattle had some timeouts left. but that first and 10 interception was not his fault. Tyler Lockett got tripped up by a defender and never got to the spot where Gino Smith was throwing the ball. And I think it really should have been called, I don't know, it was legs and feet getting tangled, but there was some contact there and maybe a flag should have been thrown. Anyway, I bring this up because Gino Smith to me is like, I don't know anything about Gino Smith, but this is my guess after watching him last night.

night and remembering that he's been in the league now. Gino Smith has been since 2013. He was a second round picked by the New York Jets in 2013, and he has had the ultimate journeyman career. He's in his eighth season as an NFL quarterback, ninth season, excuse me, as an NFL quarterback. Gino Smith through 12 touchdowns and 21 interceptions as a rookie in New York for the Jets. Year 2, 13 touchdowns. 13 interceptions, never had a completion percentage above 60. In fact, 55.8 is rookie year, 59.7 his second year. The Jets never picked up the rookie option for the fifth year. And he bounced around. He was with the Giants. He was with the Chargers. And he's been with the Seahawks now on one-year deals for a few years in a row. And last night really was the first chance in a while.

he had some chances with the Giants in 2017 and a couple of spots here and there in mop-up duty with the Chargers, but really hadn't played meaningful NFL football for four years. And there he was, you know, marching this team up and down with his arm, with his legs. Last night he finished 10 of 17 for 131 yards, had three scrambles for 23 yards, and scored on a 98-yard drive and another drive that ended up in a field goal to keep his team in the game after his team lost one of the all-time greats in Russell Wilson. I just thought about Gino Smith. When he got the ball back for that final drive, God, I was rooting for him.

If you guys were watching this game last night, it would have been hard not to root for Gino Smith because he was dealing on those other two drives. He was making plays. He was extending plays and making throws. And I wanted him to drive the ball down the field and score a game-winning touchdown. And I just thought, man, a guy like Gino Smith, he's 30 years old, you know, thought to be, I mean, nobody even mentions him, talks about him. Why is he still in the league? Well, he's still in the league more likely than not, because there are guys. Chase Daniels, the one that always comes to mind, right? Chase Daniels had a long career as a backup. The McCowns, Josh McCown in particular, long, long NFL career. You know, we've seen these guys. over the years that aren't starters in the league, but they end up continually getting paid, good money relative to most livings, to be on rosters.

And the reason typically is that coaches love the players and teammates love the players, and they are assets to the quarterback room. Even though they're not starters, and it's been determined now, that Gino Smith is not a starting quarterback, he's 30 now. nine years in the league. He's not a starting quarterback, but he continues to be on rosters. Again, I don't know anything about Gina Smith. This is just a guess because coaches really like him. They really like him in their quarterback room. They like him in their locker room. And they think in a pinch at 6-3 and 220 with a decent arm and decent legs, he can play a little bit.

And last night, I just was rooting for him on that final drive. Anyway, that's enough on that game. The Rams pull it out. Russell Wilson's hurt. We might get more Gino Smith as a starter. And it may not work out well with him as a starter with teams getting ready to game plan for him. They play a really good defensive team next week, a week from Sunday in Pittsburgh. Okay, when we come back, we will get to Washington Beats the Saints,

if also a couple of things yesterday said by the assistant coaches on the football team. Jack Del Rio, the coordinators, and Scott Turner, right after these words from a few of our sponsors. He got a nice sack last week. We just got to take it away. It was a key stop, right, on Fort Down. So we've had a few of those get taken away. But the way I look at it, you know, those things tend to even out, and we've got a lot of good ones coming. That was Jack Del Rio yesterday, and his weekly presser, he and Scott Turner do weekly press conferences on Thursday.

That was the first of three answers he gave yesterday, which included some built-in excuses as to why they weren't getting off the field on third down last week. That one was actually answering why they didn't get off the field on fourth. That was the Chase Young play with Matt Ryan, where it ended up being a roughing the passer. And he said, we had a few of those things taken away. And he laughed a little bit, but there was more from him. And look, on the Chase Young play last week, I didn't like the call either. But you don't throw the forearm into that general area of a quarterback's head and or neck and think that you're going to get away with it all the time.

Again, I'm not blaming him. go back and listen to the Monday podcast. I think it's a dilemma that these defensive players are in. I think it's incredibly difficult because I think they're hesitant to hit a quarterback, especially one that was as vulnerable as Matt Ryan was on that play. And I think they get hesitant on making just a normal tackle. So anyway, Del Rio number two here was asked about William Jackson the third. and the you know how much man coverage how much zone coverage you know he feels comfortable with him

playing here was his answer to that one you know to me you know there's always a blend you always you know you always you know your players and and their strengths as you go throughout a season and every year's a new year you know so I would say that yeah he gives us the ability to do that and I think he's a good football player and was not guilty of a PI last week. I mean, he was called for it, but again, we've got some of those calls coming back the other way. So Jackson, according to Del Rio, was not guilty of a pass interference last week, and we've got some of those calls coming back the other way, he said, in talking about William Jackson, who I've said so far based on the first four games,

He leads the league in pass interference penalties with four. But I actually think that he hasn't been terrible out there. Like he's at least close where fuller at times isn't even close. But that was sort of defensive comment number two from Jack Del Rio. Here's the third one. He was asked about his third down defense, which has been wretched this year. Here's what he said. It's all about production.

You know, bottom line is we, we, We have not started that part. I really feel like that will unlock a lot of good things for our defense. Again, this is kind of a theme here today, but at the end of the half, the call on Tori was not accurate. That's a key third down that allows them to continue instead of us getting the ball with a chance to go in and score again before the half. we end up with a long drive that ends up with points for them. So clearly, you know, getting stops in those situations on third down, that's key to any good defense.

And, you know, I always talk to our guys about, you know, when you want to eliminate a good ground game, how do you do it, get off the field on third down. And that's the biggest key. So we need more stops on third down. That's clearly a focus, and we're working hard at it. Well, I'm glad that he knows they need more stops on third down, and it's a focus, and they're working hard on it. But how about the end of the half call on Tori McTire that was not accurate?

This is, as he said, kind of a theme here today with him. There was a little bit from him last week on this. He sounds defensive. He sounds like a guy who really, really. really is trying to figure it out and is dealing with a ton of criticism, certainly from media and fans alike for a defense that has been one of the worst in the league through the first four weeks of the season. And he was pretty defensive in some of his answers yesterday.

And I would just suggest that last week's game, maybe one of the most egregious missed calls was the picked up flag on Torrey McTire when he absolutely mauled Calvin Ridley on a third down play when Atlanta was up 30 to 22 and it would have put him into Washington territory with about nine minutes to go on the move with a chance to make it either a two-touchdown lead or an 11-point lead with a field goal. That was a ridiculous pickup of a flag in that particular situation. I did not feel like officiating would have cost Washington the game on Sunday had they not finished it off. at the end. They did, but I really do not feel in any of these games that the officiating has been one-sided. I haven't liked some of the officiating. I didn't like the Chase Young call. I think he may have been right about the McTire call that he was complaining about, but the one that he didn't mention was a big one. That picked up flag, which I was like, whew, we'll take that one because my God, McTire 35 was all over Ridley.

a third and seven that would have moved the sticks into Washington territory with them holding an eight-point lead and having the ability to burn another couple of minutes off the clock with about nine to ten minutes left or whatever it was at the time and add to their eight-point lead. That was a massive no-call or picked-up flag call that went Washington's way. Anyway, that was Jack Del Rio yesterday. Scott Turner also spoke yesterday. And he was asked about the touchdown that we've talked about this week. The touchdown passed to Terry

McClorn when they were down 30 to 22. The heave, the chuck, the prayer. Yes, it was all of those things. Despite what you've heard from people like Sabah on Twitter about the five-reed

quarterback. The McKissick throw was probably his fifth read, yeah. But in all seriousness, Scott Turner was asked about that play in particular. But first he was just asked about Taylor Heineke's ability to extend plays, to playoff schedule. Here's what Scott Turner said. You know, when you got a guy like Taylor, you can call the game a little bit like more free, I guess you would say. And like, you know, hey, if they cover it or, you know, and it's not just because he can run. It's because he

makes good decisions and like hey you know you can be maybe be a little more aggressive or not have to worry about hey this has got to be the perfect call because you trust the guy that he's going to you know he's going to make it right you know what I mean or he's going to get you to second and 10 if it's a first and 10 call that would be the way like the best way I could describe that and I think Taylor's done a nice job and you know we sat in here and it was a little bit different mood last week and and we talked about him making a couple of mistakes and you know it's that it's just walking in that line. Continue to walk in that line of being fearless and being reckless, you know, and we'd rather have a guy like him that's going to push it than someone that's going to be

afraid to pull the trigger. I do love that last part from Scott Turner where he says, we'd rather have a guy like him that's going to push it than someone that's going to be afraid to pull the trigger. For those of you that have listened to me for a while, you know I'm a big Kirk Cousins fan, and I think Kirk Cousins should still be the quarterback here in Washington if it had been handled properly. But I guess the contradiction

would be my preference in quarterbacks are guys like Taylor Heineke in terms of their mental risk-taking personality. I like that. I mean, as a gambler, I prefer guys that will go for it.

That's one of the reasons I always liked Rex Grossman, not necessarily as a starter, but because Rex, you know, remember the, memes that would go around, you know, after his third pick, you know, Rex saying, you know, F it, I'm throwing deep, I'm going deep again. I like that in a quarterback. I like that just in an athlete in general. And that's not necessarily Kirk Cousins, so I understand the contradiction there. I just liked Kirk because I saw a guy that could play quarterback at a top half of the league level and be that way for a long period of time. And we hadn't had anybody like them in forever,

with the exception of obviously the Griffin rookie year. And, you know, he is obviously proven that he is a legitimate top half of the league starting quarterback. Not always, not every week, but over time, that's essentially what it's worked out to be. But anyway, there was a second part to this Taylor Heineke thing, and it got specific about the play to McLaurin that made it 30 to 28.

This is what Scott Turner said. It is a risky throw. So if you watch the, like you guys, I know a lot of you guys watch it all 22. So if you watch it all 22 on that, we had a route set up to Terry and he won, the guy fell down. You know what I mean? He beat him bad. I mean, it was a really nice route. And I didn't see that because I saw the, we had a protection issue.

You know what I mean? So I saw that and I saw Taylor scramble. His timing was off, and I saw him throw the ball, and it wasn't a great reaction by me at the time. But then when I understand why he threw it. Now, what happened was he got hit as he was throwing it, too. So now it leads to the ball even hanging out longer. If he would have got off clean, I think it wouldn't have even looked as bad as what it did. Because the guy was getting up trying to scramble back to make a play.

Obviously, it was a, you know, they didn't throw a flag for PI, but I think that's just because Terry caught it. I think they were good. He looked like he's going to grab the first flag. But anyways, he, Terry, you know, makes a great play. It's at the, at the heat of the moment, you know, I mean, it's hard to fault him for that. But that's kind of what I'm talking. That's, you're walking the line right there for that. So that was a nice job by Scott to, you know, not kill the spirit that Taylor Heineke has. You don't want to throw him under the bus for a play that obviously was not, you know, a highly intelligent throw. It was way too much risk given down distance.

Let me be clear on this. It was about the down distance score and time that made it a throw you just don't want your quarterback to make in that particular situation. I mean, he said it's a risky throw. And then, you know, he talked about obviously the ball and the reason it fluttered as he was hit. Yeah, he was under duress in the pocket. He got, you know, flushed immediately, then got press. pressure at his second time.

And, you know, he said, you know, by the way, and I think he's right about the PI, I do think that there was a little bit of contact with Terry McClearn trying to come back to the ball. But that was one of those plays, even though he says at the end, it's hard to fault him for that. But he says, that's kind of what I'm talking about. You're walking the line right there for that. And you don't want to walk that particular line at first and 10 down eight. at their 17-yard line with three minutes and 52 seconds left in the game.

I think anybody would understand that this was not a risk worth taking, even with a high-risk quarterback. And at the same time, you certainly don't want to kill his competitive spirit. Scott had one more line about this on what his reaction was when Taylor made the throat to McLaurin. Yeah, I was like, what's he doing? I mean, like, why are you, you know, because it was so late and he's moving around. It was, you know, and then we caught it. And I said, all right, you know, here we go.

Yeah, that is the, you know, the coach that says, no, no, no, no, no, yes. Yes. Basketball coaches with shooters that come down and take a horrible shot and then you're like it goes in. Yeah. Just don't do that again. All right. Let's get to Washington Beats the Saints. If.

Let me begin with this. I think it's a winnable game. I really do. New Orleans is two and two, but it's an inconsistent four games for the Saints. They have wins over Green Bay. Remember in the opener in Jacksonville, Green Bay's been lights out since. They were obviously not ready for that game. They have a win at New England, 2813.

And then they've got losses to Carolina, and the Panthers are a good team. And the Giants last week, and they were a smell test selection. And I like them actually on the money line. The Giants went in and beat them in the Superdome as a seven and a half point underdog. What's very clear so far watching the Saints and watching some of their games on the All-22 and just the game tape, they're just not what they are. They're not what they used to be, excuse me, on offense anymore. Well, obviously they're not because they don't have Drew Brees.

But I think there was an expectation with James Winston. I was expecting it that Winston would thrive with Sean Payton. and maybe they'd be even more explosive because Breeze, you know, had lost some arm strength and wasn't quite the Drew Breeze from the past. But when you watch the Saints here through the first four games, you really get the sense that they are not in rhythm offensively and that there's not a real trust in James Winston yet.

He threw five touchdowns in the opener against Green Bay on just 20 total pass attempts. They're not letting him be James' Winston. Winston yet. And the reason is, and Bobby A Bear mentioned this this morning on radio with me, there isn't the trust in James Winston yet from Sean Payton. You know, I would imagine a guy that's thrown as many interceptions as James has over the years. Sean Payton wants to be comfortable that he's not going to turn the ball over if he turns them loose. So, but there's really an out of rhythm, out of sync nature to New Orleans offensively right now. I'm,

They do have Alvin Camara, and they have had some injuries. Michael Thomas isn't playing yet. Armstead, their left tackle hasn't played. So a very good offensive line's been a little bit banged up. I felt this way before the Buffalo game, if you recall, too. I'm like, God, they're catching Buffalo. They're not very good offensively right now. Josh Allen isn't very good offensively right now.

Hasn't gotten into rhythm, and then they got into rhythm against Washington's defense. So I guess that could happen. James is different than Josh Allen, though. Josh Allen created a lot of extra time and made some plays with his legs, and James Winston is more of a pocket passer. There's just something about this game, though. I just think it's winnable for Washington. All right, let me get to a few things.

Washington beats the Saints if. Taylor Heineke delivers, distributes, and protects the football. The Saints do not allow anything on the ground. They're the number two rush defense in the NFL. teams are averaging 3.1 yards per carry against them. That's the third best per carry average allowed in the league. They've got a stout run defense. And by the way, they're not healthy on defense either. They're missing guys like Davenport and their other defensive linemen that they really like down there. And so they're not completely healthy on either side of the

ball. I think Washington's actually catching New Orleans at a decent time here. With that said, they're stout and tough to run against. I think the Giants game is a bit of the offensive formula, meaning a two to one pass to run ratio. And here's the problem with the Saints. They turn you over. They've got eight forced, they've got eight takeaways on the year. Their seven interceptions are tied for second most in the NFL through four games.

There's safeties and corners. If you put the ball up for grabs, if you put it in harm's way, they're going to make you pay. That's why with Taylor Heineke, I think to move the football against the St. Defense, which is a good defense, although it did give up a lot last week to the Giants, a hell of a lot. But it gave up a lot to the Giants on big plays. There were like four or five big chunk plays that ended up scoring and creating the yardage number. But on a lot of plays, the Giants didn't get much.

The Giants were four for 11 on third down. weren't like moving the ball up and down the field against the Saints. They just had a couple of big plays, a long touchdown pass to John Ross and a touchdown pass to Saquan Barkley out of the backfield that went for 54 yards. I think to move it, Taylor Heineke is going to have to deliver, distribute, but he's going to have to protect the ball. There is a lot to love about Taylor Heineke. We've been through it all week long.

I mean, he is, you know, top, you know, eight to 12 in a lot of the big. statistical categories in the NFL. He's also, and you've probably not seen this stat, he's also thrown the third most interceptable balls. There's a site that keeps track of balls that should have or could have very easily been intercepted. He's third in the league with 14 of them. Ben Rathesberger, by the way, number one in the league at 21. Washington wins this game if Taylor Heineke has another good game, because to move the football, they're going to have to move it on the strength of his arm and his legs and him extending and making plays without making bad plays. And if he makes some throws that are too high risk, they're going to have

to end well, which is what happened in Atlanta. A lot of the higher risk, perhaps, no, no, no throws ended well. None of them ended badly. So continuing with that will be key. Number two, James Winston and the saint offense for Washington to win the game, they sort of have to play with the same conservative bent that they've had through the first four, especially with the quarterback. You know, they've just not taken the reins off him yet. There's not a lot of trust, as I mentioned. It's not a dynamic passing offense.

You know, Alvin Camara is obviously a guy that can do damage. I'll get to him in a moment. but you are not going to be threatened with a passing attack if they roll out what they've rolled out in the first four games. And it might be, I did not think this was the case last week. And I told you, I did not think that Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense was a get-right opportunity for the defense. And it wasn't. Matt Ryan basically schooled Washington last week. I don't know if Winston can do that.

And I think Winston, you know, if you turn him loose and he's got the big arm and he can make every throw. And he starts finding people and he doesn't throw a bunch of picks and it's one of his really good games, he might catch rhythm. He might get into rhythm against Washington. But I think Sean Peyton's got to allow that. So I think one of the keys is if Sean Peyton continues to treat James Winston the way he's treated him so far, which is essentially with a governor on him. I mean, they've really made it so that James Winston hasn't killed them in games with a lot of picks, but hasn't thrown for massive yards and massive yards per completion and big games like he's had in the past. I mean, listen to James Winston's games so far.

Now, there was the opener against the Packers where he did throw five touchdown passes, but the game was a game in which he threw for 148. yards and completed 14 out of 20. Then in game two, 11 of 22 for 111 yards. That was the loss to Carolina. Week three, when they beat the Patriots, 13 of 21 for 128 yards. Two touchdowns, no picks. Last week in the overtime loss, 17 of 23, pretty good for 226 yards, one touchdown. But still, not a, you know, James Winston 29 of 43 for 375 yards, four touchdowns, two picks. That's not what Sean Peyton wants. So I think if they really approach this game the way they've approached the first four,

it'll really come down to this. Can Washington tackle Alvin Camara? Can they pin him in? Can they tackle him? can they make sure that he doesn't beat them with incredible runs after catches, which he didn't have any of last week, or just running in general. They've really run them a lot this year. He had 26 carries last week against the Giants. So number one is Taylor Heineke delivers, distributes, protects the ball. Number two is if New Orleans plays the same way they've played offensively, which is really making James Winston a different kind of quarter.

a game managing quarterback. I think that would be to the benefit of Washington with the way they've played defense so far this year. Number three is contain and tackle Alvin Camara. They didn't tackle well last week. The Washington run defense isn't that bad, but Alvin Camara is a different animal all together. And they've got to deal with him. Cordell Patterson was great last week. He really was.

Alvin Camara is Christian McCaffrey, but always available or usually available. That's the way Bobby Abear put it this morning, and I think it's a good way to put it. He can kill you in so many different ways you have to tackle him. Lastly, the Saints offensive line, I mean on paper, one of the best when healthy, but they're not healthy right now. So I think Washington has a chance to be disruptive in this game up front. I still believe that Washington's got a chance to be disruptive with their front four and end up having some big games. I think there's a chance. It could be Sunday.

All right. Prediction coming up in the next segment. And that will follow the smell test, both of those things, right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. My smell test picks presented by MyBooky. Go to MyBooky.orgie. Use my promo code Kevin D.C. And they will double your first deposit dollar for dollar. If there's something in the promo code area when you're signing up, just erase it and put Kevin D.C. A huge sports book, fair lines, fair pricing. I've been mentioning this for a couple of years now. You're not going to do better. If you already have a place and you're taking this seriously, you should have another. MyBooky. is that spot. They'll double your first deposit. Again, you've got to use my promo code, Kevin D.C. They've also got a huge contest going on right now that will cost you only $10 to enter. You could win $10,000.

It's an NFL pick contest, weeks five through eight in the NFL. You pick against the spread, get them right, earn points, rise up the standings, and potentially take home a $10,000 gram prize. MyBooky also has an online casino, and right now they are hosting a $20,000 blackjack tournament, absolutely free to enter. MyBooky at mybooky.orgie.mys, use my promo code Kevin DC. They'll double your first deposit. They'll take good care of you. Bet anything, anytime, anywhere with MyBooky. All right, the smell test last week, 6 and 7, 21, 28, and 2 overall on the year. Don't fret. I was down, I think even more last year, ended up winning again for the season.

11 winning seasons in 15. Contrarian handicapping is what the smell test is. I'm trying to find the games where the public's convinced they've got it figured out on a game's point spread or total. And I go the other way. Vegas doesn't make mistakes more often than not. And when the public is convinced that Vegas has made a mistake, they are usually wrong.

There's some clarity on the board this weekend for me. I don't want to over-promise and under-delivery here, but I have a really good feeling about the board this weekend. So let's get to it. Arizona State tonight is minus 12.5. At home at Sun Devil Stadium against Stanford. Stanford coming off that big upset win last week over third-ranked Oregon. Arizona State beat UCLA last week.

And Arizona State's a good team. They can really score. Jaden Daniels is something else. He had 13 completions last week against UCLA for 286 yards. It's over 15 yards per completion. Mill Street in downtown Tempe, if you've ever been to Tempe, it's lovely. We were out there for a Super Bowl one year. Twice, actually.

We've been to Super Bowls in Arizona. And hanging out in downtown Tempe in that desert, you know, winter weather, which is, you know, 70s and lovely. Oh, what a campus that place is. What a stretch of restaurants and bars. And it'll be hopping tonight, as it will be, inside Sun Devil Stadium. Herm Edwards has his team atop the Pack 12 South, and they are ranked 23rd in the land right now.

I like them laying this number. It's a big number. The public's all over Stanford after they beat Oregon last week, thinking Stanford's on a roll. That number should really be. be less than 10. And so they're baiting you into this. There is sharp money on Arizona State tonight, too.

Let's start the smell test off with a Friday night winter, unlike last week. Arizona State minus 12 and a half. The number is somewhere between right now 12 and 13 I've seen, so I'll split the difference and take Arizona State minus 12 and a half. Tomorrow, Rutgers is facing Michigan State at home. Michigan State is undefeated right now in Mel Tucker's second year. They're ranked 11th in the country, and they're playing a Rutgers team who trailed Ohio State last week 45 to 6 at halftime. Now, the game ended up 5213.

They never had a chance in this game. Michigan State and Ohio State are not the same teams. Michigan State's having a really nice bounce back season from where they were. were last year, which was a miserable season. Rutgers actually has been a competitive team with the exception of the Ohio State game. They lost to Michigan by a touchdown. They beat Syracuse by 10 with a really good defensive effort. They scored 61 against Temple. I think Greg Shiano's team is capable, and I think just all hell broke loose and went the wrong way last week. Not that they were ever going to beat Ohio State or cover. They were 15-point underdog.

So they were 15-point underdogs to Ohio State last weekend, lost by 39. And now they're playing another undefeated team, and they're only a five-point underdog? Take Rutgers plus the five, please. This game reeks to high heaven. That line should be 8, 9, 10, it seems like, to me, and the public is pounding Michigan State laying the short number. Syracuse is playing the ACC's last hope, believe it or not, for a playoff birth. And that last hope resides in Winston-Salem with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

Wake Forest is undefeated. They are averaging 38.5 points a game. And they're only laying six at Syracuse tomorrow. Take the Cuse plus the six. I was kidding about the playoff thing. They're the only undefeated team. So, you know, in theory, if they were to run. the table and be undefeated, they'd have a chance, but I don't even know if an undefeated season

would do it for Wake Forest, although it might out of the ACC, depending on who they beat the rest of the way. Nebraska tomorrow is catching three at home against Michigan. Michigan destroyed Wisconsin last week. I had Wisconsin. Michigan's defense is really, really good. Why is this line three? Why is Michigan as the eighth-ranked team in the country? country laying only three on the road in Lincoln against a team that is three and three. I've got Nebraska plus the three in this game. I will tell you that what the public doesn't know is that Nebraska is three and three, but they lost the opener to Illinois at home, and since then, they've played pretty good football. They beat four of them, 52 to 7. They beat Buffalo, not a bad team,

28 to 3. They lost Oklahoma. Remember they played Oklahoma for the first time after not playing them in a long time. And that was a tight game. It was a touchdown loss. And then they lost an overtime a game they very easily could have won against Michigan State, who was playing Rutgers

and we've got Rutgers. Then they blew out Northwestern last week, 56-7. Now Northwestern's not very good. But overall, Nebraska has been improving. Scott Frost's team is much better now than it was. Give me Nebraska plus the three. Penn State's at Iowa. Iowa on national TV last week.

Absolutely pummeled Maryland. This is a heavyweight matchup in terms of playoff ramifications tomorrow. Big Ten ramifications. Penn State's been playing really well. They're catching a point in a half. The public thinks Iowa should be favored by more. I'll take Penn State plus the point and a half in Iowa City tomorrow. and what should be a great game. I love Penn State's defense. The thing that worries me about this game,

I just think Kirk Frenz is a better coach than James Franklin. But Penn State is the anti-public play here. There's some sharp money on Penn State as well. I don't know. Maybe this is Penn State's year. This is a hell of a matchup tomorrow. I mean, you're talking about a top five matchup in the country right now in that matchup. It is number four against number three at Kinnick Stadium. I like Pennock Stadium. I like Penn State to win the game outright. All right, let's go to Sunday. The Eagles are catching three at Carolina. Why? That line's short.

Carolina is coming off the loss to Dallas. They may have Christian McCaffrey back. The Eagles have been getting a ton of respect from the odds makers. They scored 30 last week against the Chiefs with one starting offensive linemen in the lineup from where they were in the opener. I think the Eagles are getting respect. because they're a capable team, even though they're banged up. I don't know.

I don't love the Eagles right now, banged up personally. But that line just begs you to take Carolina and lay the three, so I'll take the Eagles plus the three. Green Bay is on a roll. So is Cincinnati, but the Packers are laying just three to the Bengals on Sunday. The public loves Aaron Rogers to destroy Joe Burrow and company. I think Cincinnati's got a chance to win this game.

give me the Bengals plus the three. The Browns are on the road against the Chargers, catching two on Sunday. There's some injury stuff with Baker Mayfield. That line's short. The Chargers are three and one. They're impressive on Monday night. I like the Browns. By the way, I just like the Browns, period.

I think they are nasty on defense. Give me the Browns plus the two. The Bears are getting five and a half at Vegas. This might be your biggest anti-public play on the NFL board Sunday. The Raiders are expected to bounce back against a Bears team that did beat the Lions last weekend. I had them in the smell test. Believe it or not, Vegas kind of likes the Bears a little bit more than most do. That line for the public should be seven.

All of the action. Money and wagers are on Vegas. I'll take the Bears plus the five. and a half. And then for the second straight week, I like the Giants as an anti-public dog. Plus seven on the road at Dallas. I think Dallas might be the best team in the NFC. I think

the Giants are much better than people think. I'll take the Giants plus the seven the public riding the cowboys right now. So there you go. That's the smell test for this week. Arizona State tonight minus 12 and a half. Rutgers plus five, Syracuse plus six, Nebraska

plus three. Penn State minus one and a half tomorrow. Then Sunday, the Eagles plus three, the Bengals plus three, the Browns plus three, the Bears plus five and a half, and the Giants plus the seven. I'll give you coming up here shortly a final score prediction for Washington and New Orleans. But I did want to mention Maryland plays Ohio State tomorrow. They're 21-point underdog. After being just a three-point underdog against Iowa, I don't love Maryland's chances,

obviously, to win the game. I don't know about them covering. Maryland's capable offensively, but they lost Dante Demas, who you could argue was their second best player going into that Iowa game behind Leah Tunga Vailoa. I hope he has a better game. Ohio State's defense wasn't very good to start, but it's gotten better recently. They're not Iowa, though, on defense, but they're much better than Iowa on offense. They are so explosive, so explosive.

And Ohio State recruited the number one. running back in the country out of Virginia, Southern Virginia, Hopewell, Virginia. Travianne Williams is his name. And he has been, since the opener, sensational. Now, they really treaded a little bit lightly with him in the opener against Minnesota. Henderson didn't get that many snaps in that game, although he did catch a 70-yard screen for a touchdown.

But he only had two carries, and then the carries in Creas. increased and then they culminated in a win over Tulsa where he went for 24 carries, 277 yards, and three touchdowns breaking Archie Griffin's freshman record at Ohio State. Number 32 special as a running back. He's a true freshman. He is averaging nine and a half yards per carry. He's got eight total touchdowns on the year. They have other great backs too.

Master Teague in that backfield. is a hell of a running back. They also have the kid, oh God, who's the other running back? I'm forgetting his name. Now, Crowley is pretty good. But Trayvion Henderson, number 32 tomorrow. Check him out.

Also, locally, Navy plays SMU. SMU's ranked 24th in the country, and they are undefeated, and they're only a 13-and-a-half-point favorite against Navy. I almost put Navy into the smell test. Navy's played better here recently after just a terrible start to the season. They got blown out by Marshall, got blown out by the Air Force. Then they were close against a pretty good Houston team.

And then they beat UCF last week, 3430. So I think maybe they're a smart play tomorrow, especially if you can get it to 14, by the half point if you have to get to 14. It's a lean there on Navy. I like their chances. And then how about this? How about Virginia Tech as a favorite at home tomorrow? night against Notre Dame. Notre Dame's coming off that loss, I understand, against Cincinnati. But Virginia Tech is just okay. They had the win over Carolina, but Carolina's looked more than

beatable. They lost to West Virginia. They barely beat Richmond, you know, a couple of weeks ago. I don't know. I'm really perplexed as to why this game is where it is point spread-wise. But believe it or not, The public action was sort of split on the game, which is why I didn't throw out Virginia Tech as a smell test pick. But I kind of like them tomorrow night in Blacksburg. All right. Final score prediction for Washington, New Orleans, with a couple of footnotes. I think it's a winnable game, but I felt that way against Buffalo, and I was dead wrong. I like Washington winning the game 21 to 19.

I think Cody Parky is going to have a chance to win it late. Their new kicker in New Orleans. Will Lutz is hurt. He's not kicking Rojas or Rosas. They let go. They signed Cody Parky, who's been hit and miss over the years. He had that miss, remember, in the playoff game against the Eagles, when the Eagles were the defending champs against the Bears at Soldier Field.

I've got Parky missing a field goal at the gun in a 21 to 19 Washington win. I do think this is going to be a low-scoring game. The total is 43 and a half, 44. I like under in the game. I think Washington's defense has its best outing of the year on Sunday, and I think if they're 3 and 2, there's going to be a lot of people excited about being 3 and 2. It really would seem after the Buffalo game, 3 and 2 was not a good bet. But 3 and 2 heading into a stretch of Chiefs, Packers, Broncos, Buccaneers, Panthers, Seahawks, Raiders, Cowboys

would be a position that would make people feel good. And the truth is, next week against the Chiefs, they're playing one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL. 2119 Washington over New Orleans in a game that goes under the total. The line, by the way, is moving up. There's some sharp money on the Saints. It's at two, two and a half now pretty much everywhere. All right. That is it for this Friday.

Enjoy your football and baseball weekend. I'll be back on Monday.