The Kevin Sheehan Show - Washington QB Fantasy vs. Reality

Episode Date: February 5, 2021

Cooley and Kevin talked in-depth about the Washington QB situation. They attempted to divide the fantasy options from those that are more realistic. Then it was a Super Bowl 55 preview along with Kevin's Super Bowl "Smell Test", Cooley's "Lock of the Week", and a final score prediction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show. Here's Kevin. Coolie and Kevin Friday. Super Bowl Friday. Tampa and Kansas City. I'm actually super excited about this game. I think this is a phenomenal matchup, Chris. I may have mentioned this to you earlier in this week. I've looked, you know, I looked through recent Super Bowls to sort of jar my memory as to whether or not I really was into it. And when the game starts, I'm into it. This one I'm actually looking forward to. I had John Orand, you know, from Sports Business Journal on the radio show. The TV ratings basically for the season have been slightly down. A lot of that has to do with, you know, election stuff and other things. He's not expecting like this massive audience, like a blockbuster record-setting audience. I don't know.

I have a sense that Brady and Tampa and against Mahomes as the defending champion is the most attractive Super Bowl matchup we've had in years. I would agree with you. I think I was really interested in the Rams Patriots Super Bowl two years ago. Because of Sean. Because of Sean. And I think there was a lot of intrigue with what the Rams were two years ago and Sean across America.

But if I think back to a lot of them, I wasn't really excited about Atlanta, New England the year before. I think in part a lot of it's just New England every year. Wasn't excited about Denver, Carolina. I was excited about Seattle, New England, the one that ended with Marshawn Lynch not getting the ball at the end. It was a great game for starters, but I think I really was excited about that one. And I was actually excited about the New York Super Bowl, which you and I were, we spent all week together in New York before the Seattle, Denver Super Bowl, gallivanting around town to all hours of the night. That was a fun week, wasn't it?

That was a fun week. That was a fun week for sure. Yeah, shoot. I can't think of a lot of them that I've been excited about. But the problem is, is when I was playing, I wasn't excited about the Super Bowl. Sure. How much do you think, how much do you ever think about the fact that you never played in a Super Bowl? A lot.

Really? And how do you think about it? I went to the Super Bowl in 2010. The Colts. Saints? Saints. I watched them run out of the tunnel. Actually, was it that Super Bowl?

No, I think it was the Bears Colts. Okay, that was a few years earlier. 2007. Right. It was one of those, I should remember, it was one of those two Super Bowls. I watched them run out of the tunnel. I said, I'm done. I'm never going to Super Bowl again.

I hated it. They looked so happy. It was such a great moment for them as both teams came out. of the tunnel. You could just see it. Yeah. And I wanted that. And I never even got close to that. I think it about a lot.

Like, you're up a football fan. Grub die hard watching the Denver Broncos, go to multiple Super Bowls. And then I remember where I was. I remember lighting fireworks off my front porch on 3rd Street when they won their first Super Bowl.

I just, it was the one setback that I had that I wish I could have that I would have loved to have done that. You lit off fireworks when they beat the Packers for their first Super Bowl win? Yeah. Off your front porch? Mm-hmm.

By yourself or with friends? No, my brother. Okay. Was he as die-hard as you were, Broncos? I think at the time, maybe not quite as die-hard football as I was. But he's a big football fan. I mean, we were excited. Was there an audience for the fireworks?

No. Was this a, was this sort of a spur of the moment thing, or did you buy the fireworks in advance, hoping to be able to celebrate? Don't recall that. You don't recall? Don't have any recall of where we acquired the fireworks. So it's possible that you just had the fireworks in the house lying around. Good chance they were just laying around.

What did you have? I don't remember. Last week, go ahead. No, I'm good. Last weekend was the weekend where NFL network basically for 24 hours or longer however long it would take they do the half hour NFL films Super Bowl shows you know over and over again and they run it all night long and I think I woke up Sunday morning and I flipped on the NFL network and they were in that Denver Green Bay Super Bowl and

then they followed it up with the Denver Atlanta Super Bowl the Denver Green Bay Super Bowl was the Pat Bowl and this one's for John Super Bowl and this one's for John Super Bowl and And they had Mike, you know, miced up. You could hear Kubiak, who was, you know, always right by Mike's side. Conversations with Elway was really, really good sound of that one. And then the same in the following year against Atlanta, it was really interesting to hear the interaction between Mike and Elway and Kubiak during a lot of those moments where, you know, they would come back

and they would look at, you know, photos. and Mike would say, we can get this and whatever the plane name was and this is going to work, this is going to bust wide open, and L.A.'s like, yeah, like, it was actually really, I don't think, I mean, I'm sure I've seen these before, but I hadn't seen them in a while. And actually, you know, not that I intended to go here, but there was a lot of, a lot of you sent a lot of Twitter feedback to the conversation that Tommy and I had yesterday, which really started coolly with a conversation about Marty Schottheimer, who was in hospice right now. And, you know, Tom Flores, who coached the Raiders to two Super Bowls,

a lot of people think it's very possible that tomorrow night he'll get into the Hall of Fame. And I said, if Tom Flores gets into the Hall of Fame, Marty Schottenheimer and Mike Shanahan should absolutely be in the Hall of Fame. Mike has two Super Bowls. Mike had a better overall, you know, career as a head coach, winning percentage, playoff appearances, etc. And he's considered to be an innovator in the game. Not to mention, you know, Steve Young basically gives him as much credit as anybody else for the 49ers Super Bowl win over the Chargers and his success.

So if Flores gets in, I think, you know, Shanahan should get in, Schottenheimer should get in. But in watching Mike, you know, miced up during those Super Bowl years, you know, those were good teams. But those weren't the teams where Elway was at his best. He was at the end of his career. But the Super Bowl against Denver, he wasn't great against Green Bay. excuse me, he wasn't great in, but he was really good against the Falcons the following year, which it turned out to be his final game. I mean, he was outstanding in that game.

I think he threw for like 350 yards and, you know, had a long touchdown to Rod Smith in the game and was excellent. Oh, no, he was, he was really good in that game. I mean, he was, I think the Green Bay game, he was not really, I think he was like, I had 120, yards or something like that in the Green Bay game. Yeah, that was a big Torell Davis game. He had that touchdown run though. Yeah, he had the touchdown run, exactly. But that was the big Torell Davis game.

Yeah. Do you know also you want to know something interesting about the game? I don't know if you know this or not. What game? The Green Bay, Denver Super Bowl. The score was 2424 late in that game. And Denver was in scoring range, you know, deep, deep in the game and Green Bay became, I believe, this may be true, it may not be true. Green Bay did not

have any timeouts left and there was like a minute 40 something left in the game. And Green Bay, I think, really became the first team to let somebody score on purpose. And they let Terrell Davis score so that they had time to get the ball back to try to tie the game because of obviously the concern of, you know, if we stop them, they're just going to kick them. a short walk-off field goal. By the way, you could tell that Denver didn't even realize that they had let him score when it happened. And there was no discussion at that point of taking three knees and kicking a field goal. Nobody thought that way in 1998. But Green Bay basically parted the seas and let Torell Davis walk in for a touchdown to give him a 31-24 lead and

far of, you know, engineered a drive into Denver territory, but ended up, you know, missing on a pass on fourth down. To Chimira. Was it to Chimira? I don't remember who it was. Missed to Chimira, fourth and six. So it was, are you looking at the play-by-play from the game? No, I remember the last play.

He and then, but it's just interesting. I don't know that before that anybody had thought that way, you know, and nor did Denver think about the possibility of taking three knees and kicking a walk-off field goal. So they ran the play. That's the interesting side of it is that Denver didn't just take a knee. That's what I just said. I know. I don't think it's that fascinating that Green Bay let him score.

But I think they were the first one to do that. Here's where this is really interesting. Okay. Kids growing up playing video games would have led to. them score. I know. I grew up, I think like 97, 98 were the primers of Madden football. Yeah. I would let someone score to get the ball back because I would have believed I would have scored playing a video game. It's funny that at the time a 16 year old kid would have known you have to let score here. Right. Or it's over. But in the NFL, they're so, they're so steeped in tradition of how

you do things that they would have, that it was a surprise that that would have been the first time that would have happened. There's no way that was the first time that happened. Maybe in a Super Bowl. No, I think it really was because I remember it being made a big deal of, but I'm going to share this story with you because I don't think I have before. It's a story where my good friend Scott Van Pelt used to make fun of me, and he made fun of me for years for doing this. But when Norv Turner was the coach in the 90s of the skins, they were in a game in which they were down one, and the other team had the ball late, and they ended up losing the game. And I can't remember specifically the game, just to be perfectly honest with you. But I want to say that it was 24

to 23 was the score. and he was using timeouts and then didn't have any timeouts and they kept running plays. The other team kept running plays. So I wrote Norv Turner a letter and FedExed it to him. So I thought there would be a chance if I federal expressed it to him that he might actually open it up and read it. I have no idea if you read it and I'll tell you what the response was afterwards. But I basically wrote him a letter saying I'm a lifelong fan of the team, you know, and I just, I had a thought in watching the game, and this was in the early 90s,

Cooley, I don't know that coaches were thinking this way. And I said, but when you were down one, I remember saying you should have let them score when they were running plays and you didn't have any timeouts left. You should have let them score so you would have gotten the ball back down eight with a legitimate chance to win and or tie. I forget what the year was. I'll be honest with you. I forget what the year was.

Anyway, I got the form letter back, you know, saying, hey, thank you, Kevin, for your interest in your fans. You know, you're being a fan and really appreciate your interest in the team, sign, you know, Norv Turner with some sort of stamp of North Turner. But Scott made fun of me for years. He's like, did you write Norv Turner another letter? Like if I complained about something, Norv Turner. He's a, why don't you write a letter?

And then federal express it to him, you loser. And which I did. I sent him that letter because it would have been the smart thing to do. But coaches weren't thinking about that kind of stuff back then. They just weren't. And by the way, the way Green Bay did it, it's a tie game. It's one thing to be down by one and let him score to go up eight. It's quite another in a tie game to let him do it.

Now, it gave them their best chance to win because of the length of the field goal that would have been kicked. But it wasn't like by not getting the ball back they were guaranteed to lose because it was still a tie score. Was it against the Arizona Cardinals in 1996? I don't. I don't remember. They lost 27-26? Honestly, I don't remember the game. I remember it was probably mid-90s.

I thought it was like it. I thought it was 24-23 and it would have gone to 31-23. That's what I sort of remember. So if you find that game, great. But the bottom line is they never did get the ball back because the team ran plays and then they got another first down with a tackle and then they ran the clock out. You know, Cooley, honestly, there was a time where teams never thought about what they could do to just run the clock out. You know, taking a knee didn't become a thing until probably the mid-80s. Didn't become a thing until John McVeigh fumbled.

Well, yeah, the Fumble. The Miracle in the Meadowlands, Herm Edwards game. Joe Pissarcheck game was absolutely something like that. But they still after that weren't taking knees. Like the quarterback might sneak it. Like there wasn't a, hey, take the knee, give up, and then you don't get hit. They might take it and sneak it and fall down or take it and run backwards and fall down. But the knee thing, I mean, my guess is that the actual knee taking where you couldn't hit the quarterback probably started in the late 80s or 90s, somewhere around there.

That's my guess. That would be a good story to share with Scott Turner if I get to have a conversation with Scott Turner about how I wrote his father. Scott's going to say, yeah, that's crazy because they gave me this stupid North Turner stamp and I had to open all these letters as a little kid. And I just got through them. Bomb, bop, bop, stamp them. Yeah, exactly. All right. Before we get to sort of a Super Bowl preview and we've got a smell test and a lock of the week,

I want to talk about the Washington football team quarterback situation. I'll tell Cooley what Rivera told me on the show yesterday. And we'll go through some of the possibilities. There's an interesting quote from John Gruden about Derek Carr and more right after this word from one of our sponsors. So I had Rivera on the show Cooley yesterday, Thursday. I actually recorded it Wednesday, ran it Thursday. And, you know, there's no doubt that they are going to look for a quarterback, you know, and they're going to try to upgrade their quarterback situation.

Not at any expense, but, you know, they offered a first and a third and maybe even a player for Matt Stafford. That didn't work out. And, you know, he basically said, we're going to investigate, exhaust all of our options. You know, I asked him, well, you know, some people think that Taylor Heineke and or Kyle Allen are the answer. what would you say to them? And he said, we've got to make sure. We've got to make absolutely sure. We've got to go out there and investigate, exhaust all of our options.

So it's very clear that they're still in the market right now for a quarterback that's not on the roster. And, you know, I started thinking about what is fantasy and then what is potential, you know, like doable. What's fantasy? What's doable? And I came up with this list, and I'm going to give you, I'm going to go through the quarterbacks, I'm going to give you my answer on it, and then I want you to give me your answer on it. Obviously, Matt Stafford is off the table now. We go to Deshawn Watson.

To me, fantasy. Fantasy. Not going to happen. And I loved the quote from John Gruden about this situation. John Gruden had the following to say about Deshawn Watson. He said, this is fantasy world here. They've got a new general manager, Nick Casario in Houston, who comes from New England, who just went through a year in New England without Tom Brady.

By the way, let me back up. The reason John Gruden was asked about this was because of the Las Vegas Review Journal story that had this three-way trade between the Raiders, Washington, and Houston, where Washington was going to deal two first for Derrickar, two first rounders for Derrickar, And then the Raiders were going to package all of those firsts and send them to Houston with players for Deshaun Watson. So John Gruden said, New England just went through a year. Casario just went through a year in New England without Tom Brady. I think he's got a pretty good idea of how important Deshaun Watson is to the Texans.

I don't think there's any way in the world they trade Deshaun Watson. And if they did, the compensation is going to be kind of like seven first round picks. And the team that does it will never draft again. Now, by the way, there is a rule. You can't trade more than three years worth of picks. So you can only go this year, next year, and then 2022. I'm sorry, this year, next year, and then 2023. There's an NFL rule you can't trade beyond three years' picks.

And then he said, in talking about Deshawn Watson, he said, Deshawn's a great player. He's a great kid, and I'm sure he's very emotional right now for a number of reasons on and off the field. I've got a lot of confidence in him that he's going to be a great quarterback for a long time in Houston. He already signed that contract. He will be a part and a big part of that rebuild.

I agree with him. I agree with him too. It's just, what does Deshaun really do? Does he actually sit it out? But I don't think Washington has the capital to acquire him. So that's why I think it's fantasy for Washington. even if there's a trade, I just don't see them getting it done. I think that's fantasy for both of the reasons, you just said.

I don't think they will ultimately trade him, even if he has to hold out. And I don't think Washington would be the team anyway. He's got a no trade clause. And he's already talked about wanting to play in New York for Robert Sala or, you know, in Miami. And it just wouldn't be. It's interesting because I think the car thing's interesting. You're going to get to that. I am going to get to that.

But I wanted to just say this one thing to you because I don't think I've shared it with you, even though I've said it on the podcast a couple of times this week. If I'm being repetitive, just tell me. The reason Houston shouldn't trade Deshaunne Watson beyond, obviously, he's a really good quarterback, an elite quarterback potentially. I mean, wherever you have him, you know, if you have him at three or if you have him at five or six, whatever, he's in that conversation, is because of the quarterbacks in the AFC, If they trade away Deshawn Watson Cooley, they can kiss off contending for the Super Bowl for 10 years.

Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, maybe Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, and then if they traded Watson to either the Dolphins or the Jets, Deshawn Watson, who would ever, when they have somebody that gives them a chance to compete with that level of quarterbacking in their own conference, Why would anybody punt on that and say, oh, yeah, we're not interested in going to the Super Bowl for the next 10 to 12 years? Because they won't. I don't think you're – look, first of all, give it four years, not 10 to 12. Now, that's someone saying they're going to do the thing the right way and build it the right way. It doesn't take 10 years to build a team.

Even – Sometimes it takes 30 years to come up with an elite quarterback. Sometimes, and sometimes it takes one. Okay. You can always stumble into the next elite quarterback, but more likely than not, you have one now, you won't find another one anytime soon. Good luck on that.

I agree with you, but you're also not going to sit here and say that there's no chance. Very, very low chance. Very low chance. All right, we're all in on Deshawn Watson fantasy. I think Dak Prescott is fantasy because I just don't see Dallas not resigning him. Do you agree with that or not? I agree with that.

I think Dallas has to resign Dak Prescott. Even if that's them moving away from certain players that they have, I think they keep Dak Prescott. I think James Winston is fantasy because if he's really as good as people think that he could be, there's no chance that Sean Peyton isn't going to figure out a way to keep him and sign him. And in James's case, I mean, what other situation would you want to be in other than playing for Sean Peyton? And by the way, for a great team.

No other situation, but it's not his choice. Well, it is his choice. He's an unrestricted free agent. Yeah, you're right. But I still think that that's fantasy. I think he's going to end up in New Orleans. I think that anybody else is going to. going to have to overpay for Winston. He could end up somewhere else, but I don't think he will.

The only thing they're going to grade him on or evaluate him on is his time in Tampa Bay. He's not going to get a high level evaluation for his time in Tampa Bay. And the only other team that actually knows who he is right now is New Orleans. So they're the team that's going to probably pay the least for him and potentially still pay him well. But if you're going to you're going to have to outpay them. Not going to happen. No one's going to do that. Matt Ryan to me is fantasy, because I just do not see Atlanta moving on from him. He's too good still. Their team offensively is really good. Drafting a quarterback, if they were to draft a quarterback with their pick, Ryan would be a great mentor for another two years. And it's a

significant salary cap penalty. His contract is structured in a way where it would be painful in dead cap money for Atlanta to trade him. I think Matt Ryan's fantasy. I don't know if it's fantasy. I don't think that that would be the move that I would make. And also, if you're going to do it, you're going to have to give up too much for Matt Ryan. It's probably going to be similar to Stafford.

And I'd rather have Stafford for the amount that Stafford was traded for. So I would not move on that, Ryan. Ryan, okay, those are the those are the quarterbacks. that I had in the fantasy column. Now let's get to the doable. But I do want to mention that I think the Deshawn Watson thing is fantasy, and therefore, by extension, I should say that the Derek Carr thing is fantasy. So I'm going to start there with you as to whether or not it's fantasy or doable by first asking you this.

Do you like Derek Carr? Do you think he'd be the kind of guy that could really leave? them to the next step. I do like Derek Carr. Still. You know I like you know I like you loved him coming out of the draft. I loved him coming out of the draft. I still think he's a good player.

This was interesting. I don't know if you read this. But Jay Gruden said this yesterday. It was probably with Standig with the athletic. Yeah. He said, I don't know what John's going to do, but I'd be shocked, really, the way Derek played this year. I don't know why he'd want to get rid of him.

But who knows if there's another guy out there that they really, really like, it's a business at the end of the day. You got to think about not only the year coming up, but the future five, six, seven years. John's going to be there for the next six, seven years or so. So he's got to think about that as well. And when you look at Carr, he completed 67% of his passes over 4,000 yards, 27 touchdowns to nine picks.

He still had a good year. It was a top 15 year for a quarterback. I think cars in that 15 range. I think he's three or four below Stafford. Two firsts a lot for car. Maybe Jay and John are posturing this car thing, and Jay's helping out with it and saying that Car's really good and that he watched a ton of Raiders film because he liked what he had done.

I like Derek Carr. I don't know if I like Derek Carr for two first, Kev. There's no... I would give A first for Carr. Okay. That's what I was going to ask you next. Because to me, it's not even believable that Derek Carr is worth two first-round picks. Not even if they're too late first-round picks.

So I know you loved him coming out of the draft. I've never been a fan of Derek Carr. You know, when I've said that on the shows the last couple of times, a lot of you have reached out with all these different numbers and, you know, and me, you know, with JP on the podcast on Wednesday, I went through a list of teams that I thought had a better quarterback situation than Vegas did.

And I came up with like 17 teams that I thought had a better situation than Vegas. Now, when I said that, I got a lot of pushback and I went back on Wednesday night and I watched some of Carr's year this year on the All-22. It's a lot of the game broadcast stuff too.

He was much, he had his best year. I don't know if he had his best year statistically. I think he didn't. But he had his best year in terms of really looking like a top half of the league starting quarterback. There were a couple of moments, though, that were not good for him. They played a game at Atlanta, a must game during the season.

They were six and four. They were very much in the playoff hunt, and they got absolutely run out of the building, 43 to 6, and he threw three interceptions and was terrible in the game. They had the game against the Chargers that they had to win on that Thursday night in, in the game where he got hurt. You know, he got hurt in that game, and then Marietta came in.

He got hurt, like on a red zone play, and Marietta came in and played pretty well, but they lost that game. He also played pretty well, but they had to beat the dolphins, and they didn't. Fitzpatrick came up big. But he was terrible in the Falcon game, and then they got lucky to beat the winless jets to keep their playoff hopes alive. But the net of it is he was better than I thought. and, you know, that I was thinking, but let me go through the list of teams that I think have a better quarterback situation with you. Buffalo, all right, start in the AFC.

Buffalo does. I won't even say Miami, okay? The Ravens do. The Bengals do. Personally, I like Tanna Hill more than Carr. Houston does. Jacksonville definitely does, you know, because of the impending drafting of Trevor Lawrence. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

What? You're the guy that said you're not just going to find a starting quarterback. You're not going to just fall into one. These guys bust all the time. So you're immediately saying that Trevor Lawrence is better next year than Derr Carr. What I'm saying is right now, as I view Jacksonville's quarterback situation, being able to draft Trevor Lawrence. I would prefer that over having Derrick Carr as my starter right now.

Fair enough. Still unknown. Well, it isn't unknown, but would you prefer to be number one on the board, drafting Trevor Lawrence or to have Derek Carr as your quarterback right now. I don't have to answer that. Why not? But I'm just suggesting that you said you don't fall into these guys. You don't just find these guys like Derek Carr's starting quarterback in the NFL.

Yeah, I'll give it to you. Jacksonville's is better. Okay. Thank you. By the way, both things are true. I can think that Jacksonville situation being able to draft a quarterback that to me looks like the real deal like an Andrew Luck type, and still say it's a crapshoot, one out of every four in the first round, one out of every five actually ends up being a legit hit. But I like their chances to hit on Lawrence, and I would take their situation over the Raiders. In the AFC West,

obviously the Chiefs, and I would take the Chargers situation with Herbert over Derrickar. So I just gave you two, three, three, four, five, six, seven. I'm not even counting Pittsburgh because of Rathlisberger's age. And eight, I gave you eight AFC teams that have a better quarterback situation than the Raiders do. Eight, you disagreed with me on one, and that's Tennessee. That's fine. So you've got seven. Let's go to the NFC.

I think the Cowboys situation, personally, I'm a bigger fan of Dak Prescott than I am Derrick Carr. Yeah. Okay. Green Bay, obviously. Kirk is a better quarterback than Derrick Carr. By any measure, period. It's not, he's not going to be five spots on this list better. Okay, he's three or four spots better.

So that's three for me. You did list Baker, did you? I did not list Baker, and I thought about Baker because... They're comparable. Yeah, I would agree. I'm just giving you now just sort of minimum numbers here. So where was I? I was eight in the AFC, you were three.

So I'm nine with Prescott, 10 with Rogers, 11 with cousins. All right. 12 with the Buccaneers, because Brady's got two years left, probably. 13 with Atlanta, 14 with Seattle, 15 with the Rams, 16 with the Cardinals. So I've got him best case, the Raiders, 17th best quarterback situation. I'm not a Garoppolo guy. You can have him. The Carolina situation obviously is totally in flux.

When you go down the list, I mean, he's not a top. The Raiders do not have a top half of the league quarterback situation with Carr. Even if you're a car fan, maybe you've got a, you know, maybe you've got 14 teams with a better situation. No way to first rounders. I wouldn't give up a first rounder for him. I'd give up a second maybe. After watching how he played last year, I'd give up a second.

Because I certainly would deem him to be a better alternative than what they have. They'll get a first for him if they were to. move him. It's fantasy though because Watson... It's not fantasy. Okay. It's reality. You think you've got car on the doable list. Sorry. Possibility. I don't, I think the thing you got to ask

yourself is how bad is the bottom 10 look? How much does he improve over the bottom 10 quarterbacks in the league? You know, what's the gap between, because I could put him anywhere. I just, I went through the list of quarterbacks. There's about 14 that I would certainly say I would take over car.

14 current starting quarterbacks. And then there's three or four that are comparable. Three or four situations. I think Donald would be comparable. Like as far as right now play on the field. Darnold would be comparable. Jones would be comparable. Tanna Hills comparable. I love that. Baker Mayfield is comparable. I mean, like I think if you were to put car in Atlanta with that group of receivers, a lot of guys are going to have a good year. What's been wrong with his, he may have had the best, one of the three, four best tight ends in the league this year. And the dude had like a trillion catches.

He was great. He had a bad start to the year. I mean, he would have been better off, you know, having Amari Cooper out there with Aguilar and Rugs and Renfro and whoever else they put out there. But they had weapons, plus they have a really good young running back. Look, the Raiders weren't in the playoffs this year because of their defense. I would not put it on car at all. He had, to me, the best year, even though maybe statistically it wasn't.

Maybe it was. I don't have his numbers in front of me. I can pull him up here in a second. Hold on. The year that he broke his leg right before the playoffs may have been his best year, 2016. Okay, 2016, he broke his leg, remember in the final game of the year, and then Connor Cook, you know, quarterback that playoff game. He was 28 and 6 on TD East Interceptions, 3,937 yards, 63.8% completion percentage.

This year, so 2019 he had his highest completion percentage, 70.4. But this season, he threw for more yards than he's thrown, and his TD to interception ratio was 3 to 1. That's pretty good. He had a good year. He had a really good year, and he looked more comfortable, you know, in year. what was this year three of John Gruden or year two of John Gruden? Three. Jesus, God, that's flying by.

Okay, so you've got car on the doable list. What about Darnold? Darnold's doable. Definitely doable because the Jets could, if they don't trade for Dishon Watson, they could take a quarterback at number two overall. They could take Zach Wilson. They could take Trey Lance. They could take Justin Fields.

And if that happened, tell me right now, Darnold, let's just say Darnold and Carr are both available. Who would you trade for? If you could trade for either one of them. Carr. I trade for Darnold. I know. I've seen enough of Darnold to see that he's

got some emotional issues. What do you mean? There's just some things he said on the sideline. There's some moments that it looks like he's panicked. But here's the thing is Donald has had, in my opinion, one of the worst head coaches and no weapons. Right. Terrible team.

That makes it really, really tough. Horrible teams he's been on. Horrible offensive teams he's been on. He's also been hurt a bunch. He's missed 10 games in three years. He's also got a pretty inexpensive contract, although you'd have to pick up the fifth year option. I think if I traded for Darnold,

there's no way I would trade for him without extending him. I'm not going to give up, because you know what, Darnold's going to cost you a first too. Yeah, Donald's going to. I think Darnel would potentially cost you more because of his youth. You'd do more evaluating pre-draft, which I thought Carr was great pre-draft and throw out some of the jet stuff. You know, amazingly enough, and for what it's worth,

I think the ESPN's QBR is probably more valuable than quarterback rating or a lot of the other numbers. The last two years, Carr was 11th and 10th in QBR. Hmm. In the 2020 regular season, Cars QBR was higher than Deshawn Watson, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Daniel Jones, Ben Rathesberger, Joe Burrow. He was 11th this year in total QBR at ESPN. In 2019, he was 10th. I wanted to read you something from John Kime's story today about sort of the overall quarterback situation as well.

It's about Sam Darnold. He interviewed multiple NFL coaches about Darnold. And he wrote, multiple NFL coaches believe Darnold can be a successful NFL quarterback with one saying, quote, I'd get him right now, closed quote. Even Mel Kuiper weighed in during Kime's story saying he hasn't been a train wreck. He's played pretty well at times and he's had no help. He's a good kid. He's motivated, closed quote.

There's something just when I've watched Darnold. in his first three years that I've liked. You know what? There's a little bit of Stafford in Darnold. You know, he's a bit of a gamer, a bit of a playmaker. You know, sort of, I don't know, maybe he's a little bit shorter and stockier, but he has the stocky build. He can make plays.

He can make every throw. He'll also take chances, which hurts him every once in a while. There is a, is that a terrible comparison? I'm going to be completely honest with you. I didn't watch enough Jets games this year to really tell you how I feel about. Well, nobody did. So, and I probably didn't watch enough Raiders games this year, but I did watch some of Derek Carr over the last two years on all 22.

And he is not a risk taker as much as he should be. He's a guy that probably could make more throws down the field, probably could make more plays, but is also smart with the football. I think car I'd take car over Donald Okay More on the doable list Ryan Fitzpatrick

To come in Draft a guy and I think Ryan Fitzpatrick What's Fitzpatrick What's Fitzpatrick gonna get paid I don't know 12 13 14 million bucksie Next year I mean after his last couple games

I mean if somebody needs An answer for the next two years Like if somebody You know somebody drafts Mac Jones Or Kyle Trask or Jamie Newman and doesn't have anything else. I'm trying to think of the teams that would sort of fit that list. I mean, you absolutely do it.

And it's, yeah, I mean, what did he make last year? 10 million? I don't even know. I don't know what he made. It's amazing that Fitzpatrick really hasn't gotten the run as a true starter anywhere. I know. And he was so...

It really is. If he didn't get... He got COVID before the playoff game. I mean, not before the playoff game. before that final game against Buffalo. If he had played in that game, they would have had a better chance of making it to the postseason. Andy Dalton, if the Cowboys re-signed deck...

No, so you're... No, he's doable. Are you saying that you wouldn't do it? No, I would not. Why not? Because I just think Andy Dalton is a bridge that's not a good enough bridge to really win games. I'd take my chances with Kyle Allen

and Alex Smith and the guys I got before I went to Andy Dalton. Tyrod Taylor. No. Why? Tyrod Taylor is not an anticipatory quarterback. He's a get-by-with guy, but if he's not making plays with his legs, he's not beating you. He's not good enough to continue to make plays with his legs. He's not Lamar.

All right. Both of those guys we would deem to be doable, you wouldn't want either one of them. Dalton wouldn't bother. me. Cam Newton is doable, but I think absolutely not. I'd be shocked. I think it's fantasy. Yeah. Okay. You're right. It is fantasy. I don't think Cam Newton's going to play again. I don't think he'll play again either, because I don't think he's a starter anywhere, and I don't think Cam Newton will ever go be a backup. Jacoby. Jacoby Berset. Doable. Do you like him?

He's a professional quarterback. Yeah. But do I like him more than competing with the current guys that I have, no. And if I have to pay them to compete, no. It's doable. It's a possibility. The last two are both doable, okay? The issue we're going to answer is whether or not we would prefer. Trading up in the draft to get fields, which, by the way, I've heard that there is some interest in fields, that they like fields. Fields is another Ohio State quarterback, Cooley. However, he is high character leader. There's just a lot about Fields that is pretty much known that is opposite of what the word was on Dwayne coming out. But the possibility of doing what Andy Reid did a few years ago.

Trade a first and a third, a future first, this year's third, to move up, say, 12 spots with Detroit to take Justin Fields or to take Trey Lance. that's doable. Obviously, I can't even comment on it because I would want to know that they're really confident in those guys. I thought Fields had one of the most amazing games that any quarterback had this year in the biggest spot, that's on my final game against Clemson. But I wasn't watching Fields for much of the year, a big fan. I don't know anything about Lance, haven't seen anything other than all the video you guys have seen. Watch Zach Wilson a couple of times, and I know that everybody's really excited about him,

But if everybody's as excited about him as you guys are, you probably have to trade into the top five at this point to get him. Mm-hmm. And then, you know, guys like, you know, Lance and, Lance Wilson, Fields, are after Lawrence, and then you get the Mack Jones Kyle Trask thing, which probably you don't have to trade up to get, more likely than not. I don't think you have to trade up to get him. I think you're going to be able to draft any of those guys at your spot.

Trask, you know, the, yeah, I like Trask. I'm not sold on Mack Jones because it's Alabama with such a machine offense with wide open dudes that people can't cover. That's not fair to him. If he could move, if Mack Jones could move just a little bit, he would be a top five pick. But, God, he can't move. He's, but that's it. Is that Tom Brady? Yeah.

Michigan? I don't know. I wouldn't be devastated if they really bought into Mac Jones and drafted him there. I think it's interesting as well. All of this quarterback movement, does any of it indicate that beyond the number one overall pick for Trevor Lawrence that they, that none of these teams know anything about any of these quarterbacks and they're not willing to just go draft a guy? Well, first of all... Were they finally coming to the conclusion that they can't just go draft a guy because there's too much risk in it? That no one can actually evaluate these guys.

Well, first of all, when you say all of this quarterback movement, the anticipation of a lot of quarterback movement, but only one thing's been really... Only one thing's happened, and that's the staff portrayed. But everybody's attempting to... Yeah, it seems like... We're anticipating because people are trying to make moves. In-Kime story, which I would recommend, it's a good read this morning on the whole quarterback situation. I'm going to get to the last thing in terms of fantasy or doable. But he did have

Kuiper essentially say that the problem that this draft basically doesn't have middle round quarterback future starters. In fact, the line from Kuiper is no quarterback in the middle rounds even projects as the same level as Kirk Cousins when Washington drafted him in the fourth round. So you know how a lot of us, you know, those many of you listen, and even the two of us will say, well, let's just take a shot at somebody in the third or fourth round, and, you know, who knows? I do like Jamie Newman, because I watched him play a lot at Wake Forest, and I really wanted to watch him play at Georgia this year, but he opted out this year. He's 6'4. Apparently he had a shitty pro day recently, but that may make it so that he's available at 19,

if not in the second round. Who knows? But to answer your question, yes, that could be it. After Trevor Lawrence. Maybe there's a big, or there's just this sense that if anybody else is worthwhile, they're going in the top five and then it's going to be over, sort of a thing. So the last thing, doable or fantasy, is standing pat, doing nothing, coming back with Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinecke, and who knows, maybe even Alex Smith, which I just don't think would make sense to do that. it's totally doable because they don't have a lot of choices. I mean, they can draft somebody, obviously. But I think that that's doable.

And it wouldn't surprise me ultimately if that is the result. Because some of these situations, you know, they have to want Washington, too. That's 100% true. But any of the doables are not going to have to want Washington. Not on the trade front, except for Watson, who's got a no trade clause. But we already said that's fantasy. I think that's fantasy. The bottom line is right now on February 5th, 2021, we don't have any idea who the starting quarterback.

Not an idea at all. It's going to be next year. But if I- The funny aspect about this is, sorry, I'm being repetitive. You tried to play this game three weeks ago. And I said, no way, there's way too much to happen. If you were forced to wager a thousand bucks today on the starting quarterback in 2021, who would you wager on? They're drafting somebody at 19.

And he's going to start the opener? I think the favorite is Kyle Allen. I would bet the favorite would be Kyle Allen. But I think if they were to draft somebody like I suggested, there will be a legitimate. three-way competition with Heineke, Allen, and whoever they draft. And Heineke will be given a real shot, which he's never had

in his career. All right. There you go. Super Bowl preview, smell test. Cooley's lock of the week and our final prediction on the Super Bowl right after this word from one of our sponsors. All right, we're going to do a Chief's win if, and then a Buccaneers win if.

But you've got something before we get to that. So I was just on ESS. PN today. And there was an article that I thought was interesting. It was on Eric Bienamee, The Secret to Bienemy's Unstoppable Offense by Dominique Foxworth. It's actually undefeated. And I just found two things really interesting from the article. One, in the pre-draft conversations, Mahomes Sr. Patrick Mahom's dad told Bianne me, if he messes up, you put your hands on him.

Really? Yeah. That is a funny thing in general, because you almost have to fear saying that in this time. Sure. Means Patrick Holmes probably got whipped a little bit. He got knocked around a little bit by his pop. Bini said he hasn't had to put his hands on him just yet.

Could you imagine, though? Ben, he said, yes, dad told me to. put my hands on him a little bit. So anytime he didn't complete a ball in practice, I'd tell him to take his helmet off and I'd slap him right in his face. Normally it was a backhand. Sometimes I'd give him a little jab in the stomach. Well, you know, there's still some old school parents.

I thought this other part of this conversation was actually funny. Be enemy refuses to test his players. I learned a long time ago, early in my career when I was coaching in college, the only thing that you do is frustrate yourself that way he said i don't want to find out what they don't know it's our job to make sure we're providing them all the information that is needed to help them be the best player i guess he doesn't quiz them either i i was wondering wondering where you were going with this i couldn't tell if you were going to say to put your players in an actual test first of all everything's a test i didn't know that that was you were

speaking test literally. Just suggesting what they did with DeWain in this year. Oh yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, right. In a, hey, let's see what he does here. Let's find out what he knows. In a real game that 53 or 63 other dudes have really prepared for, plus every other coach is prepared for, plus all the time we've put into all of this.

Let's just throw them out there and see what happens. Come on, man. I mean, it's not that big of a deal what BNemi said. Right. It's the right thing. to do, but I'm just saying to you, again, another coach, you don't test your players, man. That was a weird deal early in the year for Washington. All in all, though, Kev, it had no real impact on the season and may have had an impact on

Duane being out earlier. I asked Rivera, I asked him, I said, you know, I said to him because he, I think he's been frustrated when people have gone back and talked about Duane. He's gotten a little bit snippy in some previous interview. So I said, look, I'm not going to spend much time going backwards, but I am curious about the following. I want to know when you knew for sure that Dwayne wasn't going to be here anymore, that he wasn't going to be a part of the future.

And so he went back to the week four and the benching and the fact that they, you know, the division was off to a bad start. And he needed somebody that really could run the offense and the whole thing. And so my follow-up was, well, then why didn't you trade him before the trade deadline. If you knew then, why didn't you trade him and try to get something back for him rather than, you know, several weeks afterwards cutting him loose for nothing? And he said, he said, well, we tried and we didn't get any offers. And actually, that's not surprising to me. I think they would have gotten something in the offseason last year. But I think

Benching him after four games was really, and by the way, throwing them under the bus, remember, in the media, and saying, you know, I got 52 other guys that are trying to win here. And, you know, and then getting the leaks about the preparation and the, you know, first to show up, first to leave deal. That probably didn't help matters either, as we discussed at the time. But I do think, and I could have followed up a little bit more on this, but I could sense that he was ready to move on from it. I think they would have gotten something in the offseason for him. I don't know what it would have been.

You know, it's not like his rookie year was great, but you could have gotten back a third rounder for him maybe. Somebody still thought he was first. No, no, Kevin, no. Really? You don't get offered nothing at the trade deadline and then jump up to a third rounder in the offseason. And last April, new coach before the draft.

Oh, last April? No, no, they weren't getting the third rounder fall. Fifth best. Oh, God. Okay. I'm not disputing it. I think that stuff is always hard. And I'm the third comp.

A comp pick in the third. Okay, we'll take one of your comp. Or a next year's comp pick. They weren't getting much for them. Anyway, where were we? You were talking about Eric Bienemy. I was just talking about the B&My article, which is interesting.

It's an interesting read by Dominic Foxworth. All right, let's talk about the game. The Chiefs are a three-point favorite. We've got a smell test, lock of the week coming up. The Chiefs win if they do what? Play like the Chiefs. Score. Yeah.

the Chiefs win if they score. If the Chiefs put up 30 plus, they'll win this game. I think it's going to be around 30 for them, which is what the Chiefs do that's play like the Chiefs. I think the real key is just that is what Kansas City is on offense. Against what is probably the worst matchup or the best matchup in general, a team that will actually challenge them, team that will come after them, an aggressive defense that is not afraid of them. I mean,

they're definitely going to respect what Kansas City is, but I think they're going to trust their dudes, trust their scheme, and go play. How do they change their scheme for Kansas City? How do they stop Hill and Kelsey? Like this is the thing, like Mahomes obviously is magical, but Hill and Kelsey are so great and they're always so open. How do you? How? How do you cover them? It's really tough because both of them are so good at getting off the ball. I think you think about tight ends and one of the ways to really disrupt the tight end is to go out of your way and not let him off the ball.

So one, if Travis Kelsey's attached in any way to the line of scrimmage, you go out of your way to disrupt the timing of his route. You got to jam him. You got to take somebody like a defensive end and really ride him hard. through three, four yards without getting PI. And then maybe you're going to have to replace that with blitz around it. You know, maybe your zone blitzing around it and replacing it. But you can't let him get off the ball. Once he's down the field, it doesn't matter if it's a DB, if it's a safety linebacker.

He sets guys so well with just a one, two stick or a double stick. And it comes off a stem of his route. And then the last thing with Kelsey is he's so friendly to the quarterback and to the ball. And he, he's really special. I mean, when you watch this guy, he's just really, really special at knowing where to be from Holmes. So one, you got to disrupt timing of his route. And then two, you got to disrupt Mahomes back there to not be able to get out of the pocket, which Tampa has done a good job of disrupting quarterbacks.

Hill is a different thing. I mean, you can say double him, but then you start doubling him and then you start turning your backs to the line of scrimmage and then those little reverses come into play, all the screen stuff through the backs come into play. I mean, it's almost like you keep him in front of you as a DB. And if you give Tarek Hill 140 yards in this game, but nothing over 25, then you win. against him. I mean, it's almost like really the only way to do this

in terms of previewing the Super Bowl is to focus on the bucks and what they have to do. I mean, the line is only three, which tells you where I'm going to go with the smell test here shortly. But to me, there's one thing that's striking. The Chiefs have the injuries

across the offensive line. I think that the Patriots, I think the Buccaneers are better up front on both lines of scrimmage. They're a better up front team defensively than Kansas City is from an offensive line standpoint, and they've got a better offensive line than Kansas City has a defensive line. I mean, let's face it, the Buc's offensive line is outstanding. I mean, we saw some of that in how Chase Young was completely handled in that game. I think that there's really a chance that the lines of scrimmage in this game are won by the Buccaneers.

Now, that doesn't mean that Mahomes won't, you know, make plays by extending plays and running around and finding a spot and then all of a sudden hills open. But if Tampa can win the line of scrimmage, which they should against Kansas City, I think it's going to be very hard for Kansas City to run the football. You know, they've been a very patient team this year. They're playing against five DBs. They've been running the ball. Well, I don't know if they can do that in this game, even if Tampa is sitting back there with just Devin White and Levanti David in five defensive backs with their front four,

not with their banged up offensive lines. That might give Tampa a better chance of covering. But you're always at risk against Kansas City of Mahomes, Hill, and Kelsey extending plays and making plays, and it doesn't have to be the two of them in terms of the skill position players. It can be other people. But I think offensively, Tampa's got a chance to run the football. I think they've got a really good chance to run the football against Kansas City.

You know, Cleveland did. Cleveland didn't try to do it as much as I thought they should have done it in the first half of that game. And then they got Chubb going a little bit, and that really sparked them to that first touchdown drive that started to close the gap. And then Mahomes got hurt and things got better. You know, Tampa Bay came in here in the way. wild card round. I mean, they had over 500 yards of offense, but we got playoff Lennie, you know, going 19 carries, 97 yards, or whatever it was. I think, I just think Tampa's got an advantage at the lines of scrimmage. It doesn't mean that Mahomes and the skilled position players

won't make enough plays to win the game for Kansas City, but I think Tampa's got a really good chance, a really good chance. I think they have a really good chance, too. And I think, you know, Kansas City is going to have to be able to run the ball a little bit, would be my guess. There's so many things they do to disrupt the line of scrimmage or to make it tough on a defense to never know where they're rushing with some of the quick stuff and some of the screens. But it's also, if I'm Tampa, I'm not ever going to let Mahomes throw an RPO.

Never. Which means, which means what you're going to jump up? which means Tampa is going to be playing with one dude less in the box to stop the run. And if Kansas City can't run it with one dude less in the box, then frankly, they will be in trouble. Yeah, with that offensive line and all their injuries, I don't know if they can run it with one less in the box against that front four and the linebackers that will be on the field. Those guys are good. Really good, Tampa. Number one rough defense in the NFL.

They're the best pair of linebackers in the league. far with Devin White and Levanti David. They can control the line of scrimmage with endomicon Sue, Vidaway, William Goldston, and then you put Jack Barrett and Pierre Paul in there. I mean, it's, it'll be on Mahomes to make plays. It'll be on him solely to evade pressure, to find open receivers, to make things happen off script. It's not going to be easy for Kansas City.

but it doesn't seem to have much impact on Kansas City. Like last year, the 49ers dominated for three quarters, and then all the sudden Mahomes and Hill, and they all started to make plays and they won the game. Like it might be the same thing again this year. Like, that's the thing. Like, it's impossible to go into a game and say, yeah, no, Kansas City is probably going to lose this game.

That's crazy. I'm not saying that because I know what they're capable of. We witnessed it. Both of us are kind of saying that Tampa Bay is probably going to win this game. I like Tampa's chances a lot. I think they're stronger on both lines of scrimmage. I think also with that offensive line against Kansas City, and we've seen it so far in the playoffs, and we've seen a new Leonard Fournett. And by the way, I'd like to see Fournette more than Jones. I don't know why he wasn't in there at the end. I guess he was banged up, as it turned out, and that's why we got more Ronald Jones.

He's got a quad injury. the end. Yeah. But I mean, you've got... You won't now. I mean, when they've got Smith, they've got that guy Marpet, they've got Wurfs, Jensen, their center. That's a... They have a good offensive line. And by the way, how about Grunk is a blocker as we saw here? Better than he's ever been in his career as a blocker. And Camer Brate's a good player and he can block as well. And playoff Lenny. Playoff Lenny's over under yardage number is 48 and a half, I think. I'm going over. I think. I think. I'm going over. I Total yardage?

Rushing yardage. Rushing yardage. Yeah. I got to think Tampa's going to try to control the ball, try to control the line of scrimmage. The thing about it is they're just so, they're so good at wide receiver. I know. Godwin gets rid of the drops. And they're as deep at wide receiver as anybody in this league.

And I don't, I mean, maybe Kansas City's close. But Evans, Godwin, Antonio Brown. Scotty Miller the rookie Tyler Johnson I love Tyler plays I mean Brates wide open because you're worrying about all these guys

Gronkel make a couple catches because he just will Gruncle probably be so hyped up for this game probably take a bunch of stuff I never play the prop stuff usually but I am playing Leonard Four Nett over 48 and a half yards rushing

and by the way I'm also going to play him over 11 and a half rushing attempts. Now, obviously that becomes an issue. That's a risky one. Yeah, because they could get behind. That's a risky one. I don't because Jones could be healthy. Well, if you don't think he's going to...

What's Jones over under on yards? I don't know. And attempts. I got to look for that. He's not been as good as as playoff Lenny has. I love... No, well, he's hurt. Huh? Well, Jones was in that first game, yeah.

against Washington, but he's played in the last two, right? He played in the New Orleans game, and he played in the Green Bay game. Hold on, let me see what if I can find Jones's prop. That's 35 and a half rushing yards for Ronald Jones. And let's see, carries. I don't see a carries thing. I do see that, this is strange.

The first rush attempt for him over under is three and a half yards. If you take the over, it's plus 110 on Ronald Jones. I don't know. Sometimes those first carries, it's the third, fourth, and fifth, and tenth, and eleventh carries where you've got a chance of going over three and a half yards. But anyway, I guess my overall thing is Tampa defensively up front may be able to play Kansas City, you know, force them to continue to throw the football against, you know, nickel,

and still get pressure and still stop the run. I think they can do that, and then I think offensively they can run the ball. The biggest reason that I wouldn't say, oh, I really feel good about the Bucks winning the game is, of course, you know, what Mahomes and Kelsey and Hill at all can do. Like they did last year. They were getting their ass kicked. San Francisco, great defense was dominating the game, and then it fell apart in one quarter because they had too much because they're too talented, they're too good.

but Ronald Jones is 35.5 yards. Yeah, that's what I said, 35 and a half. Huh. I think the injuries for Kansas City are going to be...

I mean, that's just telling you they're going to go playoff Lenny. Hopefully Super Bowl Lenny for them. Yeah, playoff Lenny into Super Bowl Lenny. I mean, it is so funny because I thought watching him in the regular season, I'm like, God, because remember, nobody wanted him.

either. Nobody wanted this guy. And they basically picked him up for hardly anything. And he wasn't even coming in to start because they had Jones and they had, what you might call it, from Buffalo and Philadelphia on the roster. Why am I blanking? Help me please. Lashon McCoy. Remember, they had Lashon McCoy and Jones and they just sort of added Fournette right before the season started. And Fournette sucked pretty much all year long. And now he's been really good. You know, you can run it a little bit against Kansas City. I'm not saying Kansas City's bad defensively. They seem to step up. But obviously, too, Tampa got four turnovers against Green Bay, against New Orleans, which was the only reason they made it to the Green Bay game. And then they got big time defense in the fourth

quarter when it mattered after their own quarterback, Brady threw three picks in the second half. It's a fascinating matchup. Again, I'll say big picture. Tampa Bay's better at the line of scrimmage both sides of the ball than Kansas City is. But it may not matter because the skill position players starting with the quarterback and the most dangerous receiver in the game, Hill, can overcome all of that. They can overcome not being able to run the ball. They can overcome, here comes Shaq Barrett, and here comes David, and here comes Winfield on a safe Blitz, and here comes Devin White. They just can overcome it.

They did last year against a dominant defense. One of the better defenses we've seen in recent years, the 49ers of last year. They can't overcome it. Oh, yeah. But this is the biggest challenge in terms of a defense bringing speed from depth. Great point. That's the thing that you've got to worry about is how much. speed they can bring from depth and can Mahomes really extend if Devin White's chasing him.

I don't know. I mean, he's shown it with a lot of dudes. He's shown it with Bonn Miller in the past. He's shown it with a lot of guys with speed in the past. But he's also taken, I've also seen Mahomes take some big sacks. Not like Josh Allen. I saw him take a sack like Josh Allen this year. Did you? It's just weird that Josh Allen had so many of those big yardage sacks. I'd like to see, Did we mention this after the AFC championship game or one of the playoff games that I said to you, why is it that the whistle, the let, you know, athletic quarterbacks, say Josh Allen, try to fight their way out of his sack going backwards. And then when he goes down at, you know, after about an 18-yard loss, they then say,

oh, wait a minute, his forward progress was, you know, at a 10-off loss. Like either you're going to let him try to get out of it, but you're going to mark him for the real lost yardage, or you're not, you know, or you're not going to let him get out of it and you're going to call it dead with your whistle. There was one of those plays in that game against the Chiefs. All right, let's get to... My Holmes took a 30-yard sack this year against...

Miami, right? Was it Miami? Yeah. Yeah, I do remember that. That was a crazy game. That was a crazy game. All right. Miami's a good defense.

Excellent defense. And you know what? They did a good job early against Kansas City. and then they just couldn't stop them. No one could stop these dudes. You know, I mean, here's the other, to me, there's one other really interesting aspect of this is the Chief's defense is not as talented

as a lot of defenses in the sleep. Good players, for sure, right? Like, Tyra Matthews is as good as it gets. Chris Jones. Frank Clark's, a baller. Yeah. but they've really beat teams because they're a smart defense in the secondary and they mix a match match coverages and spagnola does a lot of things to really make it hard on quarterbacks

made it really hard on production is really smart isn't he sorenson's really smart daniel sorens had a great playoff yeah i mean but they're not going to get tom brady with that stuff right going to fool him with that stuff. So how are you going to play Tom? He knows every, none of the little things that you're doing, the rotated to cover two that everyone's pointed out. Tom sees that. And if Tampa runs the ball a little bit, it'll really limit what they do anyway, which I think puts in a Tampa offense that overmatches Kansas City's defense. So really to me, I mean, it's, it becomes really simple. Because I, I, think unless Kansas City starts to score and really becomes unstoppable and makes some big plays

and forget the turnover situation, a dumb, a botched punt, some of that stuff, just in general, two teams playing each other. Unless Tampa finds a way to really score, they're going to lose this game. And I mean, really score. Well, I'm just, you know, the first matchup they got up to the big lead. And there's, you know, all the talk about you give Andy Reed two weeks, you know, the whole thing and what he does after the weeks of preparation. I'd like to see what Todd Bowles' record is when he give him time to prepare, you know, and not only that, he's already seen them once. You know, the one thing that's interesting about the Chiefs is they did this year play a lot of really good defensive teams.

You know, the Ravens. The Patriots were pretty good defensively. You know, obviously the Bucks and the Saints, they played those teams. and they were able to move the ball and score points against all of them. You know, they really did. So I think it's, I think the matchups fascinating. I think anybody that looks at this and thinks that Tampa Bay doesn't have a chance, I think is just completely counting on what they, you know, look, the visual of what Kansas City is offensively with Mahomes Hill, Kelsey, etc.

And I understand that. But the Bucks have some advantages in this game, especially with the banged-up offensive line for Kansas City. Let's get to the smell test lock of the week in prediction to finish up the show right after I tell you about mybooky.orgie.ag. If you're going to bet this Super Bowl, you want to bet it with MyBooky because they've got every prop bet possible. Lots of contests as well.

If you go to MyBooky.orgie.org and you use my promo code, Kevin, D.C., they will match your deposit halfway up to $1,000. The Chiefs right now, at my bookie, are minus three and a half minus 105. Okay, that's a smaller Vig or smaller juice to pay, but you've got to lay that extra half point. At minus three, I would assume that you're probably going to pay minus 120 or minus 125. The bucks are plus three and a half minus 115. The total is 56. Lots of prop bets.

Go to MyBooky, MyBooky.ag. Use my promo code, Kevin D.C. They'll match your deposit halfway up to $1,000. That's free money to play with to then go ahead and wager on some of their prop bets and a lot of college basketball as well this weekend, I'm sure. NBA as well. MyBooky, mybooky.comy.com. Kevin D.C. is the promo code.

All right. Let's get to the smell test. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. Cooley, three and one on championship weekend. I had Tampa plus the points. I had Kansas City minus the points. I had the over in the Kansas City Buffalo game. Those were all three winners.

And then I had the under in the Tampa Green Bay game. That was a loser. But three and one pretty good championship weekend. That brings me to an overall season record. of 88 up, 90 down, and four pushes. So I'm two games under 500. I've been doing this. This is the 15th year of doing the smell test.

In the previous 14 years, I had 10 winning seasons, a couple of those big winning seasons. The four losing seasons, by the way, were never worse than 48.6%. So it was like a percentage and a half off of 50-50. Now, I do understand, and several of you, when I've mentioned this before, Goshian, you do know that you have to win about 52.3% of your picks to break even or win money. I do understand, guys, I understand what the juice means and Vig means.

I understand what the sharks are doing. What the sharks are doing. I understand that going 500 means you lose money. But we're going just on the picks here, okay? I'm two games under 500. And by the way, Cooley, I'm not settling for 500. So here's what I'm doing. First of all, all four of these wagers fit the smell test criteria.

I'm very lucky because we could have gone into a Super Bowl where none of the, you know, the side, the total, none of it fit the smell test criteria. It all does. By the way, real quickly, before I give you the picks, I think you're going to find this interesting. I've got the history of point spreads in the Super Bowl. And I think it's really interesting that it's been 12 years since we've had a. a double-digit favorite. It's been 12 years since we've had a favorite of more than seven points. The last double-digit favorite or favorite by more than seven points were the Patriots in that first of the two giant Super Bowls. They were 12-point favorites. They lost 17 to 14. All right. The, you know,

the first giant upset of the Patriots. Since then, the highest point spread was Pittsburgh over the Cardinals the next year. And basically, we've had five or fewer points in terms of the favorite, the favorite team for the last 11 Super Bowls or 10 Super Bowls. The Chiefs were minus one last year. The Patriots were two and a half the year before that against the Rams. The paths were four-point favorites against the Eagles, three-point favorites against the Falcons. The Panthers were five-point favorites against the Broncos. Seahawks Patriots was a pickum. Broncos were two and a half over the Seattle Seahawks. 49ers were four and a half over the Ravens.

In that second matchup against the Giants, the Patriots were only two and a half point favorites. It's been, you know, more than a decade of basically matchups in the Super Bowl that were thought to be very competitive. Because in the years that preceded it, Cooley, it was not unusual to see double-digit favorites. The Patriots I mentioned in 2008,

the Rams were 14-point favorites in that first Brady Super Bowl. when the Patriots upset the Rams. The Rams were 14-point favorites in that one. In the 90s, you had a run of five games in a row of double-digit favorites. The Cowboys were 10 and a half over the bills in 94. The 49ers were the biggest favorite in Super Bowl history. They were 19-point favorites over the Chargers in that 95 Super Bowl. Then the Cowboys were 13 and a half over the Steelers.

The Packers were 14 over the Patriots, 11 over 10. Denver. 19 is the largest point spread in history. The 18 is the second largest, which was the Colts over the Jets in Super Bowl 3 that produced the biggest upset in Super Bowl history, point spread-wise. That was Joe Namath calling his shot, beating the Colts in Super Bowl 3. The highest over-under number was 57 and a half Patriots Rams two years ago, and we ended up with the lowest scoring game in Super Bowl history 13 to 3.

You know, the highest over-under number, 57 and a half, with the lowest scoring Super Bowl in history at 13 to 3. One more quick thing on Super Bowl odds history. I thought this was pretty interesting. For the first 15 Super Bowl's Cooley, the over-under numbers were in the 30s 13 times, like low 30s. Steelers Vikings in 1975, the total in the game, the over and undertotal was 32 and a half. Like you would never see that. Ever. Ever.

The final score, by the way, was 16 to 6. The highest over under total in the first 15 years of the Super Bowl was Super Bowl 2 between the Packers and the Raiders. The total was 43. Everything else was basically in the 30s for the first 15 years. If you're wondering about the Redskins, first Super Bowl against the Dolphins in 1973, they were one-point underdogs against the undefeated dolphins, lost 14 to 7. When they won their first Super Bowl, Super Bowl 17, the dolphins were three-point favorites. That was the Riggins Super Bowl.

The next year, they were three-point favorites over the Raiders and got blown out. then against the Broncos when they had the biggest quarter in NFL history, the 35 points and 18 plays. They were actually three-point underdogs against the Broncos and went on to win the Super Bowl 42 to 10. And then in the last Super Bowl they played in, they were seven-point favorites over Buffalo and routed the bills 37 to 24. All right, here's what I'm doing with the smell test. Did you find any of that interesting? Fascinating. Really or not?

Actually, yeah. I know. I thought you would find it interesting. I don't know how many others did. The Bucks are the anti-public play. The public likes the Chiefs. They love the Chiefs, minus the three. It's interesting.

There's going to be a lot of Buccaneers' money line action in this game. But I like the Bucks plus the three. The smell test, it fits the smell test criteria of not only a major anti-public play, but a lot of sharp money on Tampa Bay. The entire betting public thinks that this is going to be a 38 to 35 game and it's going to sail over 56. The real interesting part about that is the number opened at 57, 57 and a half, and it keeps coming down, which tells you that the bookmakers have no problem with you guys continuing to play the over in this game. I'll take the under 56.

I'm also going to include two first half wagers. The Buccaneers are plus two and a half on the first half line. I will take the Bucks plus two and a half. And the over under in the first half is 27 and a half. I'll take the under 27 and a half in the first half. I'm not settling for a 500 season. I'm going four wagers here on the Super Bowl game. the bucks plus three under 56 and then first half wagers on the bucks bucks plus two and a half

and under 27 and a half if you guys don't know what that means they have numbers for every quarter so the first half the the chiefs are two and a half point favorites so I'm taking the bucks plus two and a half and then whatever the halftime score is you know hopefully the bucks win you know hopefully they're up 10 to nothing at halftime since I have the under and the bucks. Those are the four wagers. What is your lock of the week? I like all four wagers.

I like Tampa to win this game outright. That seems crazy, but I'm going to take the points because I'm getting points for my lock of the week. Sure. But I like Tampa in this game. The more and more I've been watching some of the Tampa defense and some of the stuff they do with speed

and the matchup with what I think is a better offense in Tampa Bay than Kansas City's defense. I think Tampa's just a better football team right now. That's crazy to say. I know. Okay, it's crazy to say. And eight weeks ago, I wouldn't have said that. But Tampa's really come a long way, and they're a good football team.

They figured out who they are. I think Tampa would be my absolute lock of the week. And then I don't think Jason Aldeen wears a cowboy hat. By the way, Cooley, don't you think that we, like, There are many times when I take an underdog and I feel really confident about it, and I do really feel confident about the Buccaneers, but I also know that this possibility exists, that the Chiefs absolutely blow them out.

Like, that it's just they're too much and they win the game 3517. Like, that is not going to shock me if it happens. Look, I like the Buccaneers chances. I think I'm going to wager on the Bucks. I'm going to play them on the money line as well. me. I'm playing them on the money line in addition to playing them plus the three. I'll probably play them on the first half money line as well. I just know that it's one of those where it could be, you know, oh, God, was I dumb? Because the chiefs are so good. But I think that's definitely in play.

No doubt about it. But I'm going, I'm riding with the bucks. I think, you know, I think the book, Look, the books had a very successful December and January so far. That's where I made my comeback. You know, they raked it in in late November, December, and January. So they may be in a position to be able to afford to lose the Super Bowl, regardless of how much people wager on it. But they don't like to lose the Super Bowl. This is too much volume on this game.

And I just find it very interesting that the Chiefs are three, three and a half, and it's really been sitting at three in most spots and that the total's been coming down even though the public money is going to come in way much on the over. Watch it come in on the over. Everybody you talk to has 35, you know, 28, has, you know, 41, 33.

I mean, people are expecting a real shootout in this game. My final score prediction is Tampa Bay 27, Kansas City, 20. I know that sounds crazy that the Chiefs would only score 20 points, but that's my final score. Tampa Bay 27, Kansas City, 20. Yours is what? Dude, I should send you my stupid paper right now. That's so weird.

You have the same score? I said 27-21. Okay. We've done that before. Average minds think alike. That's just, I really do like the under in this one. I like Tampa to control the ball. I like Tampa to control the game.

I think Tampa can score enough. I don't know. It's weird. Average minds think. They usually don't think alike. They usually think way different, but you and I seem to think alike. I'm excited for the game. Can't wait to talk about it on a Monday. I hope it's a great game.

We're going to leave you with this. 30 years ago in the Super Bowl that was played in Tampa during the Gulf War, the Bill's Giants Super Bowl, the Super Bowl where, by the way, Bill Belichick was coaching up that giant defense, and the Giants pulled off a major upset in that Super Bowl in 1991. By the way, the Bills were seven-point favorites in that game,

and the Bills Giants won that game. Scott Norwood missed the field goal at the gun. It was, for me, the second greatest national anthem of all time. Without a question, Marvin Gaye at the 1983 NBA All-Star Game is the greatest version before a sporting event of the national anthem. But this one, 30 years ago, will leave you with Whitney Houston. It was truly like a spine-tingling. moment. There was so much patriotism in the country. It was a totally unified country 30 years ago,

much different today. But we'll leave you with that. Have a great weekend. Kooley and I'll be back on Monday to recap the game.