The Kevin Sheehan Show - Washington Will Beat Philly!

Episode Date: December 20, 2024

Kevin opened with his preview of Sunday's Commanders-Eagles showdown in Landover. His keys to a Skins' win and his prediction included. Jay Gruden jumped on with his thoughts on Washington-Philly + his NFL Lock of the Week" (8-5 ATS). ESPN's "Stanford" Steve joined Kevin to preview and pick the College Football Playoff games. Kevin finished up the show with 9 "Smell Test" picks.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. Sunday's game in Landover against Philadelphia might not be for survival, but it is for a chance to make a huge statement. This show's presenting sponsor, as always, is Window Nation.

Call them at 86690 Nation or head to Windonation.com if you need new windows. Jay Gruden will join me in the next segment. His preview and pick of the game on Sunday. His NFL lock of the week as well. He's 8 and 5 on this show with his lock of the week. ESPN Stanford, Steve will jump on after Jay to preview the college football playoffs, which gets started tonight in South Bend.

It's Indiana against Notre Dame. That's where Steve is. He will preview those games. He will give you his pick for the next. national championship matchup, along with a national champion selection. I'm going to give you mine right now. I like Oregon to face Notre Dame in the championship game, and I like Notre Dame to win it all. This is going to be awesome. I've waited years, as many of you have, who love the sport, to see an expanded playoff. It's probably more wide open than anybody would have expected. I think,

the expansion of the playoff people said it's still going to be two really good SEC teams and maybe a big 10 team and the pool of potential champions will be very small i think it's much larger than anybody probably would have anticipated Texas can win it all Ohio state can win it all Oregon can win it all Penn State can win it all Notre Dame can win it all Georgia can win it all although they're injured. That's what, six teams right there. I'm sure some people think Tennessee could win it all. This will be a lot of fun. It starts tonight. I like Notre Dame to win it all for a couple of reasons. First of all, they can really run the football. They're second in the country in yards per carry. And then this is an outstanding defensive team, top 10 in most defensive

categories. And I love the fact now that after tonight, if they can win tonight and it won't be easy, they'll face a Georgia team in the quarterfinals that will likely be without its starting quarterback. Carson Beck looks like he is out not only for that game, but maybe for the entirety of this playoff. I know a lot of Florida State fans are thinking, well, if they knew that, then maybe Georgia wouldn't have been in the field. Like Florida State got knocked out of the field. like Florida State got knocked out of the field last year after losing their starting quarterback. But Georgia qualified by winning the SEC championship games. So they got an automatic.

But if they had lost that SEC title game, they would have been in big trouble, no doubt. If the committee knew that Carson Beck wasn't going to play. So I like Notre Dame's ability to, if they win tonight, maybe get by Georgia playing a backup quarterback and get into a semifinal, maybe against a team like Penn State who, you know, most people think has the easiest draw with SMU and then Boise in the quarterfinals. I just like the Irish. I've been watching them all year. I've mentioned this before that I've just in watching them,

I see a team that, you know, just can run the football so efficiently and they're so good defensively that I could see them making a big run, and I think it sets up well for them. I don't love Oregon as much as I like Notre Dame in their side. to the bracket, they'd have to face Ohio State. If Ohio State gets by Tennessee, that game was one of the games of the year out in Eugene. And I could see Ohio State winning that game and making a run to the national title game as well. But, you know, let's see what Ohio State has after that horrific loss to Michigan Thanksgiving weekend. So Notre Dame over Oregon in the final. That's my

pick. Of my nine smell test picks to end the show, two of them are from these four first round playoff matchups. Stay tuned for that. All right, let's get to Sunday. Washington in Philadelphia for the second time this year. As I mentioned, it's not about survival. Washington doesn't have to win the game to remain in strong playoff contention. But I do think it's about making a statement that This isn't just going to be kind of a plucky bad team from last year that turns it around with a rookie quarterback and wins 10 games and loses in the first round of the postseason to a much better team. And let's see what they do in the off season to see if they can actually become a contender. I think if they beat Philadelphia, they will be taken seriously as a contender. Maybe not at the top of the conference.

This is a home game. Philadelphia is chasing the one seed, obviously, in the NFC, so they need this game. game to hunt down Detroit or Minnesota. I think the biggest concern I have with the game heading into it is health. You know, they're going to be obviously without Noah Brown, Austin Echler, who was so effective in that first matchup over a month ago on Thursday night football. Dan Quinn ruled out one player and one player only today, and that was John Allen. He's trying to make his way back from that injured, that injured peck. The one I'm most interested in is Zach Ertz. I think they really need him Sunday. He's been limited. He's in concussion

protocol. They need him in the run game. They need his route running ability. They need his reliability as a pass catcher for Jaden with that big catch radius. If he doesn't play, he was limited again today. Can Ben Sennett step up and do what Zach Ertz has done? I'm not sure. I think the number of snaps and the number of opportunities he's gotten would be an indication that they think he's not quite there. They kind of feel good about the veterans. That's why we saw Jameson Crowder last week, more than Luke McCaffrey. I think Senate's got a lot of talent. It just may be a little bit too early for him. That's why I think Ertz and his shoes are big ones to fill. Without Echler, without Noah Brown, knowing that, you know, outside of Terry, it's, you know, by committee at this point,

it would be deeper into that committee without Ertz. But that aside, I am picking Washington to win the game 27 to 17. I feel good about this. Again, if Ertz doesn't play, I may feel a little bit differently because they would really be more limited offensively. but God, man, I don't know. This is a big opportunity for them to beat their first, to get their first win against a team with a winning record, to make a statement in the division,

even though they're not going to win it, to make a statement about what they're capable of doing when they get up against a team with a better record in the first round of the postseason. I like Washington to win this game, 27 to 17. Now, part of it, you'll hear in the first. smell test is about basically most people believing that Philadelphia will win this game and maybe win this game going away. Here's how I think Washington pulls it off. Number one,

they've got to stay in down and distances that lead to third down conversions at a high rate. You know, something like 45% of their third downs, they've got to convert. That would be in Why so specific? Because that would match their season average, which, by the way, is good for sixth best in the league. They're at 44.9%. So if they're right around 44.9, 45% are better than they're moving the football. If they can hit that average, they're staying on the field enough, I would think. If they hit their average of 44.9%, then they're exceeding by a lot what Philadelphia allows

on third down defensively. Philly's number two in the league and third down defense allowing just 34.1% on third down. Detroit's number one in the league on third down defense. You know, they've got to stay ahead of the chains in this game. Quick game,

effective runs with the quarterback involved. You know, what they did against Tennessee a few weeks ago, when they had 12, 12, 3rd and 3s or shorter, You know, you've got to get yourself into that position because second and long and third and long, forget it against this Philadelphia defense. I'd actually like to see in the run game less of the pulling action. We've seen a lot of that this year, a lot of the counteraction, a lot of the pullers.

Because I think Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis and Zach Bonn and, you know, Nkobie Dean and some of these guys, I just don't, they live in the backfield. They lived in the backfield at times in the first matchup. You know, Washington took a bunch of TFL's tackles for loss against the Saints. In looking at Philadelphia's recent games, you know, Baltimore would be the comp because of the quarterback being involved in the run game, and they were kind of effective running the football. This is what Washington has to do, first and foremost, offensively, because I think that's their ticket to anything good this year from this point forward. they've got to stay on the field, and to stay on the field against Philadelphia,

you have to be successful on first and second down, so you have third in shorts. Or hopefully you can avoid third downs all together. So that's number one on my list of how they pull off a 27 to 17 win. Number two is they've got to be plus in the red zone battle. So they've got to end up, you know, two. for four with Philadelphia being one for four or three for five with Philadelphia being two for five. The problem with this, and this is where you've got to see some improvement, Washington's 29th in the league in red zone defense. Philadelphia is 11th in the league in red zone offense. Washington has to win that battle because I do think both teams will get to the red zone.

And then it's about who can force the other into a fourth down, you know, stop or a missed field goal. Remember, Jake Elliott missed two field goals in that first half of the game on Thursday night a month ago, just over a month ago. Washington's missed a bunch of kicks recently. Got to be effective and you've got to be productive and you've got to finish in the red zone with touchdowns. I'm not expecting a four-for-four-four-day. That would be 28 points. I don't know that I'm expecting the 27 to be gotten that way. Probably, you know, three touchdowns in the Red Zone out of five trips.

That's what, you know, you got to look at there and holding Philadelphia to two out of five. That would be a huge difference in this game. Red Zone, got to be on the plus of the Red Zone battle with the Eagles. Number three, Washington beats Philadelphia, 27 to 17, which is what I'm predicting. If defensively, they stop something, okay? And that means it's Barclay and stopping the run with Barclay and Jalen Hertz. Or they stop A.J. Brown and Devante Smith. They have to take something away from the Philadelphia Eagles offensively.

You know, in that first game, and I went back and watched it a little bit, and I pulled up my notes from that first game. They did a really good job in the first half defensively against the Eagles. Now, the Eagles self-destructed. They missed two field goals. They had some penalties. They had some drop balls. There was a badly timed flea-flicker play that Frankie Louvo blew up.

But they really stood up pretty well against the run. Now, how did they do it? They loaded the box. and Barclay was 3.7 yards per carry in the first half. Philly's offense total was just four yards per play in the first half. One of my takeaways in watching that game on the list of things that I liked was the first half defense did a good job, made me a bit more of a believer following that Pittsburgh game where they did a decent job at times.

Of course, the second half came and Philly scored on. each of their possessions and rolled up 23 points in the second half, you know, in their 26 to 18 win. But that first half also was about Sanra still in coverage on A.J. Brown. How do they play that on the back end with Marshawn Latimore? Does he stay on one side? I'm going to ask Jay that and see what he says. But you've got to take something away because if they're balanced, it's over in terms of what you can do defensively.

You've got to load the box and take Barclay away like you did in the first half, and then you need better offensive production so that you don't give Philly so many opportunities, or you've got to take away the big play potential with A.J. Brown and Devante Smith. I'm not sure how they'll play it. I think they'll play it like they did the first game, load the box with Latimore back, and maybe play some single high in man coverage behind. it we'll see, but they better stop something defensively if they're going to win this game. They've got to take away something.

Next on the list of how Washington wins Sunday, 27 to 17. Turnover margin. I know it's cliche, but this matters this week. And, you know, with this team this year, it's mattered, you know, and they're plus in the turnover margin, both teams are for the season. But, you know, they've had so many blowouts. they've been so explosive at times offensively. They've been so efficient at times offensively.

It wasn't necessary to win the turnover battle. Sunday against a team that's loaded that is playing better than anybody in the league, a team that's healthy, I think you've got to be plus one or better, period. Maybe plus two. Lastly, you got to make kicks, man. You know, the Dallas game, the Saints game. I think it's going to be Gonzalez. Jake Elliott on the flip side.

sides had a very subpar year for him. You get to their 35-yard line. You got to come away with no less than three. You know, if you can move the ball between the 20s and, you know, not convert every time in the red zone, although I think that's huge, you just got to convert more than they do in the red zone. But you can't miss kicks and try to beat a good team like Philadelphia. You got to be plus in the field goal category, plus in the turnover margin, and plus in

the Red Zone touchdown category. I think this is a statement game. I think it's a big game for the coaching staff, Cliff Kingsbury, in particular to respond to a team that, quite honestly, didn't look totally prepared against Vic Fangio's squad. Short week that week, Washington was coming off the much more difficult game against Pittsburgh, but you've got a week to have prepared for this, and they're good.

They're better than they were the first time you face them. I like Washington 27 to 17. All right, two quick things before we get to Jay Gruden. Number one, that game last night with the fair catch free kick at the end of the first half, which was crazy, hasn't happened with a made kick in 48 years. There have been many attempted, the fair catch free kick rule. if you're interested in that, I had Mark Mosley on the radio show today. You can find that by downloading the Odyssey app or going to the Team 980.com.

Mark Mosley, the 82 MVP of the league, the most legendary kicker in Redskins history. He tried a couple of them in his career, including a 74-yard fair catch free kick. against the Giants back in 1979. It's the second longest field goal attempt in NFL history. I'll talk to Jay Gruden about that, see if he ever had a kicker try a fair catch-free kick. I know a lot of you didn't know the rule. I think I've talked about it before.

It's kind of geeky, but basically it's in the rulebook. If you call for a fair catch, you're allowed to then, if you want to, and it only happens at the end of halves or the end of games where there's like one play remaining, you can kick a field goal with no rush from the spot in which you fielded the fair catch. Last night there was a penalty for running into the returner, which added yards, and then the Chargers attempted a 57-yard free kick after the fair catch. made it. Turn the game around on some level. Big game for the Chargers last night to win that game. Denver would have clinched a playoff spot losing the game. They're nine and six now,

and they have the Bengals coming up. The Bengals still have a chance because Denver lost last night to make the postseason. That's a team that the rest of the AFC would not want to see in the postseason, I don't think. But anyway, Mosley was great. We ended up talking about so many other things And I really enjoyed it. And I think, you know, those of you of a certain, you know, Redskins vintage from a fan standpoint, we'll enjoy it as well. Again, it's available at the team 980.com. And real quickly on the RFK site plan, at this point, it's almost ridiculous to put this out there

because who knows what it's going to look like by the time you listen to this podcast. Because I know the Friday show, I see the numbers. A lot of you listen to this show on Saturdays and even on Sundays. But, yeah, last night the House Republicans removed it from the spending bill. And then the bill didn't pass on the House floor. So, again, what happens next seems to be unclear. But I want it in D.C. Of course I do.

Just like most of you do. I just would mention one thing, and that is that if it is dead, I don't have a problem at this point with Josh Harris and Mitch Rails and company saying, we did our best, but we got to move on. They want a new stadium, and they don't want to wait until 2032 to open it up. You know, they paid $6 billion for this thing. They need the revenue that a new stadium will generate. I get that.

It would be nice if, you know, they had a sense that 2025 new administration, new Congress, A lot of work was done on 24. Comer will be the sponsor again. It can be fast-tracked. It'll play out differently. And if they have that sense, go for it. It would be great. But if they don't, and it's, you know, another kind of flip of the coin or worse,

and waiting it out for maybe another disappointing ending, I would get it if they just moved on and said, we got to do Maryland. They did a great job. You know, Joe Maloney before that great job. the people involved, you know, with the team that have, you know, searched out these opportunities. It's time to get it done. If that's their answer, I will understand and accept it, even though I'll be disappointed by it. All right, Jay Gruden next after these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey guys, no man wants to lose his hair, but for men, it's actually very common.

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Hell yeah. Yeah. I still say Redskins. I don't care if I offend anybody. I'm the last coach of the Redskins. I'm proud of that. You were. You were the last coach of the Redskins. Jay joins me right now. I just asked you before we, we started to record if you watched the game last night. So I'll ask you, did you know the fair catch free kick rule? Yeah, sure did. Sure did.

Everybody knows that. It's not that hard. It's not something you have to practice, really. It's something that comes up at the end of the half. The special team coach tells the fair catcher, the punt returner, man. If it's around midfield, take the fair catch and we'll get a free kick. And he's line up with your kickoff team, the guy holds it and he kicks it through. And if he misses it short, then you guys got to go down a cover.

It's something that you don't really need to practice because it's a very simple thing to execute is kick the ball through the upright. But you've got to tell your punt return. You want to get the punt return first if you have a good look at the punt return, take it. If it's a low-line drive, however, you know, if you have a chance of fair catch it like they did last night, I don't think he was in position for the free kick when he fair caught it was the kick interference that gave it to him. Yeah. Yeah. Did you ever, I don't remember you in a game.

here is a head coach attempting a free kick? No, no, never tried it. I think we had a couple opportunities once in the preseason, but the guy kicked it too. He had a good punt. They got to be really backed up, right? And it's got to be a crappy punt. Right.

So that's why it never happens. I mean, most of these punters can boom it, you know, from back of their end zone to the year 40, you know, 60, 60, 70 yards in the air. It's very difficult to get that opportunity. And time on the clock, it's got to be. You got up, you know, like they did last night, they called time out on eight seconds left. Yeah, it's got to be end of half or end of game, because if it's not,

I say that if you're attempting a super long one, end of half. I got a question for you. If say he had to kick interference and there was still one second on the clock, it wouldn't have been allowed, right? Why? Does there have to be zeros? Does there have to be zeros on the clock? No.

Can there be 10 seconds on the clock? Yes. Okay, yeah. Yeah, I mean, you could do it in the middle of the first quarter. You could do it in the middle of the first quarter if you wanted to, but you wouldn't because you'd want to take possession of the ball. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, same thing. If you had 10 seconds, you'd still run another play to get closer to kick in normal. Exactly. Right. You would do that, of course. That's why it happens typically if it's just a few seconds left and you've got time for one play. I actually had Mark Mosley on the show, and he attempted in 1979 in the same season for the Redskins. He attempted a 74-yard, fair catch, free kick, and a 70-yarder.

The 70-yarder was to win the game. It was against the Houston Oilers and Earl Campbell, Bum Phillips was the coach. They punted fair catch and he went onto the field, free kick from 70 to win the game. And he wasn't close on either one of them, but he actually had a really big leg for back then. He's got two of the, the 74-yarder is the second longest attempted field goal in NFL history. Janakowski attempted a 76-yarder in 2008. What's the longest field goal you've ever attempted? Do you know?

Oh, no, I don't remember that. I'm sure it was Hopkins because he had a really good leg. Obviously, four-bathed my first year, he didn't have the leg strength to do that, but Hop did, so I would imagine it would have been in the 60s. Yeah. But I don't recall the exact number. Yeah, I don't either, but Hopkins did have a massive leg. kicking in general, like

we're going to see a 70-yard field goal. I mean, that's coming soon. The legs, the indoor stadiums, the turf, everything's just so much more conducive to these long field goal attempts and long field goal makes.

Yeah, I think at the end of a half or end of a game, maybe, I don't know if you'll attempt that in the middle of the second quarter when, if you miss it, you give it to them at a 30. You know, that's or 40, whatever it is. Right. Aubrey last week at the end of the half attempted one from 70.

I don't know if you saw that against the Panthers. I did not see that. Yeah, McCarthy sent him out there for a 70-yard field goal, and it was no good. I think, God, I just read about it. I should go back and look at it. I think it may have had the distance, but it was, no, it didn't have the distance.

it was actually returned. There was a returner back there who caught it and returned it. Yeah. That's a scary thing because you got all these big slugs covering a kick. You remember Auburn and Alabama? I mean, that can turn quickly. I mean, if you have a good kick returner, those big offensive lines, I've got to fan out and cover the field and your best tacklers, your holder,

for God's sake. So it's a little nerve wreck. Yeah. I mean, do you think that on a long field goal attempt like that, that you might, when there's a returner back there, you might put, you know, maybe on the edges two players that can actually block and tackle with speed? It's hard because you need lengths at the edges because they got to step down and they got to punch out the speed of the guy trying to block the kick. That's a very important position.

You can't mess around with that one. They got to be pretty athletic. It's not an easy position to play. They've got to protect their little C gap. Then they've got to bounce back out and get a hand on the D gap. That's tough. You've got to have some length. Well, they got some link.

You're all right. We've seen a lot of block kicks this year, haven't we? Yeah, I put that on my Instagram or TikTok, whatever it is. Whatever the hell is. These guys are really taking advantage of it. You can't use leverage. So I can't, if I'm blocking the kick, I can't step over, step on the guard and use leverage and jump up and block it. But what teams are doing now, they're using the defensive tackle and the other defensive.

They're pulling down the guard in the center, and then the other guys jumping over them. And I don't think that should be legal. I don't think you should be able to pull down a lineman and let somebody else jump over them. But that's what teams you're doing. And then Atlanta did it the other day, and they got called for it. Some teams are getting called for it. Some teams aren't. So they've got to clear up that rule in the offseason for sure.

Well, we've seen you can't make any contact with the snapper, with the long snapper. But you can jump over if you've got an athlete. I think I've seen Miles Garrett do it. Literally jump over the center between the center and the guard. And that's not a penalty as long as you don't use that player for leverage. Correct. However, the other player is pulling the guy down so Miles Garrett can jump over. But he can't pull the center down.

Yes. Right. Yeah, they're still doing it. They're still doing it. Yeah. That's, yeah. All right. And then I think did New Orleans, New Orleans,

I called against Washington for a necessary record. It was in Washington. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that wasn't a penalty. I don't know what the hell they're calling. Well, because... They're all over the joint with this rule.

Yeah, Pereira came on and said there was contact with the Snapper's head, and that's why it was called and it was called the right way. The Knapper did a good job. He lunged at the defender. The defender didn't do anything. the Snapper did it. He initiated the contact.

All right. Enough about field goals and blocked field goals and whatever. Yeah, you just lost half your audience. Probably, although I think there are other weird people out there like me that love talking about field goals and stupid, obscure NFL rules. Switching subjects. Was Philadelphia during your time? here as a head coach. Did you view them as the biggest rival more so than the other two division teams or not? No, that's the Dallas, right? Well, I feel that way, but players have said, some players have said they felt like the Philly games were bigger and more important. We had we had bigger games against Philly, you know, the winning division. That's probably why it's, you know,

when they came up, they might have been a little bit bigger, but I always felt like as a coach, it was Dallas. I always felt like that meant the most of the fan base, that meant most of the organization was beaten Dallas. I always showed the history of that, you know, before we played them. And, you know, some of the old videos of the guys ripping down banners and stuff like that, some of the big hits and the rivalry.

And, you know, I actually had that come up in a show that I did the other day, the biggest rivalry in pro sports. They were talking about Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and I said it in Dallas, in the Washington Redskins or Dallas and San Fran. I always thought this was the biggest robbery, us in Dallas. It was. I mean, for, you know, the better part of a quarter century or longer, maybe 30, 35 years, it wasn't just the biggest rivalry in football. It was one of the biggest rivalries in all of sports.

But it's not that anymore. And it's not that anymore because this franchise, our franchise, just hasn't been relevant enough. They're having to be. been as many important games. Dallas Phillies has been a much bigger rivalry in the division for the last 20 plus years. I would say that Pittsburgh Baltimore, in this century anyway, has been the biggest and most intense rivalry. I would agree with that. But it's also hard to have these rivalries sustain because the players change so much more than they did. way back in the day. All right.

How do they beat Philadelphia Sunday? Well, I think if you're looking at the defense, I think they're going to have to take some more chances with trying to stop Sequin. Now that we have Marshawn Lattimore, I think that'll be a lot easier to do because now you feel more comfortable about playing

some single high safety and playing coverage. So yeah, I think that's the big key, how we're going to hold up in the back end, make sure Latimore does a great job on AJ or Devonthe, whoever's over on his side, and let's stop Sequan. Can't give him light boxes because I don't think Washington is good enough to play the run.

I guess that offensive line at Saquan with a light box. We've got to get an extra guy in there, and then that's going to open up Jalen and its passing game. But I'd rather take my chance with him throwing the ball and hand of the ball to Saquant on a light box personally, and then offensively that's where it's going to be tough. You know, I was disappointed last week in the offensive line and the lack of movement against New Orleans.

We couldn't get movement against New Orleans. I don't think there's going to be much against Philadelphia because they're bigger and better on the interior. So that concerns me a little bit. And in the passing game, I think we're going to take some chances. Obviously, Terry against the rookie corner and against Terry a sleigh. So you've got to make some big plays. Got to get some chunk yards with Terry,

and then obviously stop Sequin and take our chances in the passing game. And obviously, guys say it every week. Turnovers are going to be critical. They've got to create a turnover to special teams or get Jalen to throw a pick, force a fumble somehow, some way to flip the field position. I know it's a really simplistic way to look at it, but, you know, turnovers are so significant.

Is this a game in which Washington has to be plus one or plus two in that category to win? 100%. Yes, 100%. You've got to play a perfect game. Offensively, no, turnovers. You've got to limit the penalties, obviously. No, there's not a lot of room for error against this football team, the Philadelphia Eagles, because they don't have many weaknesses, offensively or defensively. So, yeah, so it's going to be critical.

third downs are going to be huge of maintaining the football offensively and keeping sequoan off the field and keeping your defense fresh. So they can manufacture a couple 8, 10, 12 play drives, eat up 5, 6 minutes at the clock. That'll keep the defense fresh and keep them in the game. That'll be huge, huge. Third down conversions, turnovers. State every week. Kevin, every week.

Third down conversions, red zone turnover. Yep. Let's do it. Yep. Let's do it. What's been more impressive to you watching Philadelphia? their offense or their defense? I think defense really because they started out.

They were horrific early in the season. I thought, man, their back end was just getting torched. And, you know, since they got Cooper DeGine playing nickel and they got Quignan Mitchell, these two rookies have really stepped up. And they're able to, you know, cover down, play some heavy boxes. And then the two big guys in the middle are just playing outstanding. Those guys are really, really good. So, yeah, they're very good.

And then you flip the ball over, and I don't know what the hell you do. You've got to stop Sequin. You've got to stop A.J. Brown is a monster. But like I said before, I think if they do have a weakness, like A.J. Brown said, it's passing. So we kind of try to make them pass as often as we can. I know that sounds a little scary to a lot of fans, but I think that's probably the weakest part of their game is passing, like A.J. Brown said. I know they proved they could do it last week, but I still think that's what could bring them down, if anything brings them down. Is their pass offense pretty basic?

Oh, yeah. Yeah, it's pretty basic, very simple. And Jailer's really not, you know, he's not really a great passing quarterback as far as going through progressions, making read. Now, if he's got one-on-one matchups, he could deliver the ball and throw it to those guys. But when it comes to progressions and reading defenses and all that stuff, he still struggles a little bit with his timing and his footwork and all that stuff. So that's where we got to get after him. And the problem is when you play Philadelphia, and you have to play loaded boxes, the reeds are pretty easy.

You get single high, you're going to work this guy of one-on-one match-up, let's throw it home. You know, I think where he struggles is where you can, you know, you can disguise coverage. You get him in third down and seven and eight. Disguise some coverages, you might get some throws to you. He'll scramble, throw it away, and you'll have a chance. But if he stays in third and short for a second down, it's going to be a long day. defensively the idea of having Latimore out there as you discussed and then you know really focusing on Saquan Barkley and perhaps playing single high man coverage behind it I'm assuming that's what you're talking about primarily how would you cover Philly where does Latimore go does he stay on one side does he travel with AJ Brown how do you see that playing out whatever he's comfortable at

I don't know if he's traveled before in a past. I want to say he stayed right and left. I think he stays on the same side, but I'm sure he could travel. But I think Devonte Smith is a pretty good option as well, but I think Sarinstrel. Is that he pronounced him? Sanrystal, yeah, that's good. I think he matches up pretty good against Devonte.

He's a smaller type guy. He can run with him a little bit. I think that's a better man. I would like him to travel if you are playing man, but he still play single-line, play three-deep. And I think that's an option for him. He can carry the verticals and play man on the outside, basically. So there's some zones you can play in single high, which I think would benefit

the commanders very well because now you get some eyeballs on the quarterback base. Jaden runs. You know, he's play a lot of man-to-man. Jaden break, or Jalen breaks to contain. It's going to be tough to contain him. So I would prefer some cover threes, different versions of cover threes, getting the guy in there, three buzz, three weak, three carry, and get after them. One of the things that just stands out watching Philadelphia back to them defensively is They're not only incredibly talented, and they're so much faster than they were last year. They're just relentless. Like, they just, every player has a super high motor.

Like the pursuit you see in the picture on a tackle, there's like, you know, eight or nine guys there. Like, they're well coached defensively, too, aren't they? Yeah, they are. They do a great job defensively, and Vic Fangio came over. and he's got a good system about him, and wants people buy into the system and understand what he tries to do. He plays a lot of coverage by formation,

three-by-one to play certain coverage. That's pretty sound two-by-two. He'll play something else and he'll sprinkle on a blitz here and there. He does a really good job. He's a good football coach. He didn't do great at Miami. He struggled last year at Miami, but he's done a good job with this Eagle team.

He's been a good defensive coach for a long time. I have a lot of respect for him. I think they do run to the ball. Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter really clog up the middle, let these other guys run and play. and I got a good safety in Gardner Johnson and Blanketship's a smart guy. He plays good, but two rookies are playing extremely well.

Josh Sweat can run on the outside, so they got players, that's for sure. I said the other day, to me, in watching Jalen Carter, he looks like a future defensive MVP. Yeah, he's pretty good. He's a younger version of Leonard Williams, probably, that big size guy that can really run and hitch up the field and take on double teams he can do it all. There's no weakness in his game.

He sometimes plays a little high, but that's the only weakness that you have, and I'll take it. I'm sure I asked you about Fangio before the last Philly game. You coached against him. I mean, you know, he was in Chicago as the defensive coordinator when you were here. I know there were a couple of games against the Bears. What makes him so difficult to scheme against, to game plan against? He's pretty, you know, he's not really an aggressive coach. he's more about not giving up big plays and playing sound coverages and getting highball,

you know, getting hands-on receivers here and there and let your four-man rush get after him. When he becomes, when he has problems when his four-man rush can't get home, then you can attack his coverages that he likes to play, and you kind of know where people are going to be, you can attack him. But when the four-man rush is getting home, it's very hard to dissect this defense because you need time to get people on the third level of the deep. defense or the second level of the defense are high-low this guy or high-low that guy. And now you've got Jaylon Carter right your face.

You can't get there. It's very difficult because there's not a lot of green grass spots to throw the ball in his covers. But there are. I mean, you can find them, but it takes some time for these plays to develop. And with that four-man rush is getting home, good luck, buddy. 478 yards and 41 points on Christmas Eve, 2016, against Vic Fangio's defense in Chicago. go. Not bad. Yeah.

All right. You can gut them. You can gut them now. He's got to have time. Yeah. Like every defense. Give me time. I'll get you.

So how does it go? What's your prediction? I'm not really optimistic. I think the additional Marshawn Latimore is just critical. If we didn't have Marshawn Latimore, I'd say Philly by about three touchdowns. But I think Marshawn is a huge difference in this game. And I think we can keep it close. But like I said before,

He's got to play better than we played last week. Eight sacks, I think, against Norlands we gave up last week. I can't have that. We've got to protect Jaden and be able to run the ball a little bit more. Our offensive line's got to step up and make some plays. I just think right now, unfortunately, I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but I just think Philly's a little bit too much right now. Who do they miss more, Eckler, Ertz, or Noah Brown?

I'd probably say Echler, the way they want to, you know, because he can create matchup problems. Ertz probably. Erts probably all around because, although he's not a great separator at the tight-end position, he's a great target for Jaden, and Jaden's very comfortable throwing the ball. And then you go from him to Bates and some not. I mean, this is a pretty significant step down. Not quite as much as when I went from Jordan Reed to Jeremy Sprinkle,

but it's pretty significant. Sprinkle, though, was a big target. Yeah, he couldn't do the thing. He couldn't do the things George Reed could do. No. Yeah. So, yeah. And I just, I love having that mismatch in the backfield, though, too.

You know how I love Chris and all that? And everyone won't have that now out of the back field. You know, B. Rob's not a really guy that's going to go catch a lot of balls unless it's a screen pass. You know, the other guys aren't really either. So that's what they're, those two guys are big misses. in my opinion. Did you bring Chris Thompson to Jacksonville, I forget, for whatever reason I thought you did. Yeah. Yeah. And did he play well? Get married. He invited me to his wedding. You know what? He did great early on, and I think he got banged up a little bit. But, you know, we played a second game of year. He had a touchdown catch and played well early. He was a great change. We had a rookie running back. He had to play. And he was a great change. And he got hurt. It was a COVID year. It was a nightmare. But he did good. Chris, a great guy. Great player.

Yeah, he was a really good player. All right. You hit on your lock of the week last week with the Jets laying three against Jacksonville, the one by seven. So you're now eight and five against the number on this podcast. Who do you have this week? Lock of the week. All right, this is a tough week. I went back and forth with a couple games. There's some crappy teams playing crappy teams. And there's some teams that are pretty good playing teams that are pretty good. But there's some big point spreads.

I don't like to mess with. So I'm taking a team. A team that's really real. They're not very good. But I'm taking them getting nine and a half. I think it's nine and a half. I can't believe they're getting nine and a half. Atlanta's playing a rookie quarterback at Michael Pennix.

They're playing a Giants. I'm going to take the points, damn it. Giants are a little bit banged up on defense. Their offense isn't very good. But Atlanta has shown me nothing. They're going to try to run the ball 50 times in this game. It's going to be a cold game. The clock's going to run.

Giants are going to try to run the ball as well, getting the leaked neighbors going a little bit. So I think it's going to be a low-sporting game. I'm probably will win, but I'm taking the damn points, Kevin. You know, taking points is not a bad overall concept in NFL games, especially big underdogs, and there are several of them this weekend. You're taking the Giants on the road getting nine as your lock of the week. I mean, since you pick... Michael might come out and rip it.

I don't know. Michael might come out and throw four. hundred yards, I don't know, but I got to see it first. I got to see this rookie quarterback play his first game against the New York Giants and beat him by more than nine and a half. Come on. Since you picked that game, I'll ask you about a guy that we both really like. What happened to Kirk after he was tearing it up mid-season?

Yeah, I don't know. It's really a weird thing. I think they have a rookie coordinator in Zach Robinson's first time ever call him plays and putting together game plans. And I think, you know, as a young coach and you're not calling plays and you're not coming up to the game plan, all of a sudden you're having to do it later in the season. You know, I think it's hard for these guys.

He's not using Kirk to his best abilities, in my opinion. You know, his best abilities, he has to hand out of ball off. Obviously, they try to that. But the naked, the play actions, they're not getting any clean looks, and they're asking the receivers to do a lot of reading stuff, and they're not on the same page. And Kirk, Kirk demands precision. You know, he's a perfectionist.

and when guys are not running where they're supposed to be, they're not coming back to the ball, he's going to throw interceptions because he expects you to be in a spot, but if you're not there, bad things are going to happen, and that's what's happened to him. That was Jay defending, Kirk, not me, people. Okay, so leave me alone. That was his former coach defending him.

Just out of curiosity, have you reached out to him? Not since he got benched, not yet. I'm going to probably check them, let the dust settle a little. bit. I'll get him a text and pick him up. I'm sure he's happy. He's fine. He's got a lot of money in a bank. Yes, he does. Yes, he does. His feelings are her a little bit, but I think he'll get over. He'll sleep well to night in his nice silk pillow. I didn't think he looked right Monday night. Something was wrong. He was barely getting to the point in which he could hand the ball off on some of those stretch zone plays.

Yeah, I agree. I think he doesn't have the same flexibility, mobility that he had. his lower body and all that stuff, because he really had some really good torque and all that. He could get back. He was never really a great athlete, but he was a good enough athlete to make all the throws and get back there and hand the ball off, for God's sakes. I think you're right.

I think he's still a little bit limited from that Achilles. I don't know what that does to a player, especially at the quarterback position. I know it affects different positions differently, but he does not look the same, doesn't not have the same ability, in my opinion. You're going to watch more of the college football playoff games tomorrow, the triple header, or the two NFL games?

Probably flip back and forth. Go to a sports bar, Kevin, and watch them all. How about that? Well, you can do that, but don't you get bothered in a sports bar? No, heck no. Put a hat on and watch the games and hang out. All right. Well, it's a great football weekend coming up, that's for sure. Appreciate it. Merry Christmas to you, and we'll talk next Friday. You got it. See you later, Kevin. Jay Gruden, everybody. We'll finish up this show. We're going to go out to South Bend, Indiana.

Talk to Stanford, Steve, preview the college football playoff games. I'll have nine smell test picks as well. We'll get to that after these words from a few of our sponsors. Euro step around that hot take and make a play today with Robin Hood. With a 3% boost on your annual IRA contributions with Robin Hood gold, your money starts working for you. That's an easy assist without the flagrant fouls. Official brokerage in Jersey Patch partner of the Washington Wizards.

Investing involves risk. 3% match requires gold for one year from first match must keep IRA for five years. Robin Hood Financial LLC, member SIPC. For more information, go to robin hood.com slash retirement. Gold membership is offered by Robin Hood Gold LLC. All right now is my friend Stanford Steve. That's Stanford Steve 82 on X on Twitter. He is in South Bend, where game day starts at 4 p.m. leading into the first of four first round games tonight.

Indiana at Notre Dame. Tomorrow, a triple header. It's Penn State hosting SMU, Texas hosting Clemson. And then in the nightcap, and Stanford Steve will be there in Columbus for this one with game day as well. It's Ohio State and Tennessee. I don't know how long. you've been wanting something like this. I've dreamt about this specific part of the playoff, too. The home venues in a first round, weather being a factor. You just sent me a picture. It's snowing in South Bend this morning.

It's frigid. I don't think it's going to be snowing for the game. But how long have you wanted this? Oh, man, forever. You know, you thought about those homes. You know, people talking about the buys and the bowl games. how are they going to line it. This is a step in the best direction.

Again, four home games on four college campuses. And to start it here, Kevin, I think is extra special. I was recruited by Notre Dame here back in the, you know, mid-90s. Holtz was the coach and, you know, the touchdown, Jesus, the Grotto. I'm 17 years old. And all I could think about how old everything was, you know, like your dorm room had a sink in a closet and like the bed. That was it.

And now you get here and you've seen them upgrade everything. I mean, all my family with Notre Dame fans growing up. And I stayed in. I was not a fan at all. When BC beat them that year in 93 is one of the best days ever. But I still listened to them and I wanted to take it all in. And it just wasn't for me. But to be here now and have this playoff in the first game here is awesome.

And if people haven't been here, you've got to. to come just to see it and get your own feelings. I say that about FCC games all the time. Notre Dame, no matter what your feelings, it is that extra special, and tonight's going to be incredible. I don't see the temperature is getting above 30 degrees, so I think that's going to be a factor in the game, but I can't, cannot wait for this game. You know, our boys accused me over the years of being very much kind of a closet Notre Dame fan. I mean, I grew up with, I grew up with, you know, Sunday mornings, Lindsay Nelson and the Notre Dame, you know, our recap of highlights from the day before. And look, Notre Dame will never approach any Maryland, you know, love that I have,

obviously. But there have been times when I've been a big fan of Notre Dame and I've rooted for them. I've never been to a game in South Bend. It's on the bucket list. But more, but beyond that, I actually think they have a chance to win the whole thing. So before we get into these four games, tell me right now what your bracket looks like. Actually, we're all going to the office and filling them out. I believe in front of each other before our show. So I've been perusing this idea. And the thing I keep getting to it, the struggle is I have Texas play in Oregon and then Penn State.

playing Notre Dame. Penn State playing Notre Dame? Yeah. And I just, I'm like, am I really going to do this? Am I really going to figure a way where there's not going to be an SEC team on the bottom with no Georgia, seeing how successful and tough the event. But the quarterback thing is real. I can see, Notre Dame's biggest test is right is tonight.

Because when you look at this game, Indiana brings challenges. And the idea of Notre Dame, they haven't been. They haven't faced the defense this good since week one at A&M, and I was at that game. And they didn't look good. But, you know, Riley Leonard is taking steps. I, you want a bracket. I'm going to say. Well, just give me your final.

Give me your final and your champion. I'll say Oregon Penn State. I mean, Oregon wins. A big 10, that's a big 10 final people. Oregon is in the big 10, and they just faced each other. and what was a pretty entertaining Big Ten title game in Indianapolis. All right. Oregon over Penn State in the final.

That certainly would be a big deal for those in Happy Valley that are not big James Franklin fans. Oh, yeah. Yep. That would be a really big deal. Big deal. Before we get to these four games, who needs to win more and how many games do they need to win? Franklin or Ryan Day? Ryan Day.

Ryan Day, without a doubt. How many games does he need to win? National Championship. Really? To save his job. I don't know if it's to save it, Kevin. When you, you know, we're there for the Niana game. Everything's going in the right direction, even though they had a loss, you know, at Oregon. Everything was in front of them.

And then the ultimate, you know, blindside hit comes and losing a lot. Michigan again. And the way they put the onus so much on that game. And you walk around the facility, it's a countdown clock, it's the team up north, and the red tape and the M's upside, like all this stuff. And then it just

splatters in your face. I think four years of that is the way that got that, and how crazy and a much of a frenzy that place is, I could see a mutual part of a way. I really could.

But a national, I mean, that's the whole thing is I was two years ago when he brought C.J. Stroud and his team to the Peach Bowl to play Georgie. I was on the game crew for that, and I sat in the meeting. And I could tell. I was like, Ohio State's going to win this game. Just by talking to Marvin Harrison Jr., C.J. Stroud, the guys on defense, Ryan Day, they had totally turned the page. And they were fully focused on the opportunity that could still win the national championship. And I just don't know. I think that loss was that hurtful. Ohio State's the biggest outlier in this.

They could lose Saturday night. They could win the whole thing. They're the team. I have no idea what to expect because of how bad they played in a game where they put all the onus on. Michigan didn't say anything. Michigan had won three in a row. Michigan was lucky to make a bowl game, the whole nine.

And Ohio State did that to themselves. And now that they're at home also, I was thinking, you know, Herbie and I were talking about, Maybe a road game would be better. But it's not, you know, they've got to face the facts here now. And we'll see what they come out. They come out like. But they are the biggest wild card in this whole 12 team.

All right. Let's start with that game and we'll go through the other three Bs. I think that game right now is perhaps the game that fans are anticipating the most Ohio State and the final game of the four first round games tomorrow night at the shoe facing Tennessee. there are 7-7-5-point favorite. Who wins and why? You know, I really like the matchup for Tennessee going in, and then when I watch them more on defense,

that's where it comes down to me. The game comes down to Tennessee's defense because everybody just assumes Tennessee's offense is going to score. That's not Tennessee style on offense anymore. They're going to struggle early on, And a lot is going to be on the plate of IMA Leaba at quarterback. So with that struggling, what is their defense do? They play a ton of guys.

They don't have two defensive tackles as good as Mason Graham. And the kid, oh, God, what I wish we were going to, I'm 74 for Michigan. They manhandled Ohio State. Absolutely manhandled the center and two guards up front. And they couldn't do a thing about it affected the run game. it affected the stretch run game, it affected the quick game, it affected the past game, and it affected the quarterback like I haven't seen him all year. And there was only one way Michigan was going to win that game.

It was Ohio State throws a pick backed up, Michigan gets a three-hour touchdown drive. Ohio State throws a pick going in. The field goal kicker misses two field goals, and Michigan holds the ball the whole fourth quarter. That was the only way, and it happened. So for Ohio State, I don't think Chip will be a stubborn. to run the ball. They can't. I do still think there's some success to be had. Being able to run the football in Tennessee,

like I said, they don't have to, you know, man child up front. So I look at Will Howard and they have to get the ball to Abuka and JJ Smith. They have to get the ball in those guys' hands because Tennessee is where you have to get them is on the perimeter and in coverage. They're not

great. Their past coverage is better than, their numbers are better than I believe the talent is because of that front line. And they play eight or nine guys up front. So to me, it's how much can Tennessee keep Ohio State in check? That's what really messes me with the total.

It's the lowest total of any of the games, and I'm really puzzled by it because Ohio State, we've seen it happen, that quick pass game, or Judkins or Trevion, you know, a four-yard run and a mistackle, and that's an 80-yard touchdown. Like, it's gone. Those guys are that good.

So I struggle with that. I believe Ohio State wins and Tennessee covers in the long run. I really think that it's that tight of a game. And the chip he was referring to for those that don't know is Chip Kelly. He is the offensive coordinator in Columbus. All right, let's go to the game tonight, which is probably, well, point spread-wise. It's the shortest line.

Notre Dame's a seven-point favorite tonight. Who wins this game and why? This is one where I really like the under, Kevin. I look at Indiana, and I said it before, they're the best. defense that, you know, Notre Dame's face, it's week one. And when you watch Indiana, and people are just going to say, you know, they haven't played anybody, they got exposed by Ohio State. And there were some crazy things that happened in that game where they just, you know, got off off-kilter turnovers and Ohio State pounced on those opportunities. Indiana's got two

pros on the defensive line. They got a pro at linebacker. And then they also have a pro in the secondary pawns, who's a transfer from James Madison. He's undersized. But he's a He could definitely battle the receivers for Notre Dame. And Notre Dame's strength is in the past game. I think 24 points wins this game. I really do. And knowing both teams and how they want to run the football for Indiana to set up their Opreo game and for Notre Dame to get, I think Jeremiah loves the best player on the field,

both sides tonight in this game. I think that kid is legit explosive and they've got to get the ball in his hands. I think Indiana could put Notre Dame in predictable throwing situations, which is what Notre Dame doesn't want. and when both of those defenses get in the red zone, I think they tighten up even better. So I think it's a super low-scoring game. And like I said, I think Notre Dame wins,

and I take Indiana to cover, but I really like the under the most. Two dogs so far, but two favorite Moneyline winners. So let's go to tomorrow, 12 noon, Happy Valley, white out. The temperatures are going to be cold. I mean, all three of these venues, Columbus South Bend and State College. Very cold, sub-freezing temperatures. Not bitterly cold, but this is what we wanted to see when we wanted these playoff games.

And it doesn't look like snow is going to be a massive issue in any one of these venues. But who wins Penn State SMU and why? No one needs a quicker start than SMU in any of these games, in my opinion. When you look at how they started against Clemsonston, if that's a lot of, That's a problem because I really think Penn State found something in the Big Ten title game. I've said it all year. When you don't have wide receivers that can separate and you have NFL running backs, you've got to get the ball to them. And they did that in K. Tron Allen and Nick Singleton, and they threw the ball to them.

And there was a big difference. Oregon was on their heels all night. They didn't look like that all year. And so I really think Penn State is feeling themselves here. They got a lot of confidence going in. they're at home. We know how much they love their home field. They're finally going to do a whiteout, which everybody's happy about, which I argue with people Halloween night.

Why can't you just do a whiteout for a noon game? And voila. Now they're in the playoff and they're doing a whiteout. So that's another thing. I'm happy for the people at State College. But I really like for people that look for different ways to bet the game. Kevin, I like Penn State first half. It's like four, four and a half. I really think they're going to jump them. I think SMU is going to be surprised at different.

makers that Penn State has on a defensive front. Again, I've said it a lot of times in these games, this is the best defense that SMU is going against. And I like Jennings a lot. I think he has a huge ceiling. But the way he plays and the way he, you know, backpedals and tries to buy time. Big losses. With this weather or not in wind, yeah, in wind, I think that stuff, you're not going to know it until you see it and you feel it. And so I like, I don't want to to be open to the back door at the back end because SMU will keep the foot on the gas the whole time where Penn State, if they're up big, you know, they might pull guys, you know, worrying about injuries and the weather and that stuff. So I look, I think there's a lot of

points. I like to over. But I really think Penn State's found something. I like them in the first half. But I don't really like the point spread. That eight and a half is tricky to me, because you know that back doors open the whole second half. You just created, though, for me, because this was the game. There are two games that I really like, and I'll have them in my smell test here after we get done. But I think you just convinced me that Penn State laying the number is the right side, because I can see what you just described,

even though they got absolutely torched by Oregon, their defense did in that title game. I could easily see, and I like Kevin Jennings too, but a lot of backpedaling, a lot of, of first receivers taken away, and all of a sudden, in the cold and the wind, there's, you know, an 11-yard sack, and it's second and 21. And at that point, you know, and I don't think they can stop Penn State with that running game. By the way, just tell everybody how good Tyler Warren is the tight end for Penn State and how good of a pro he's going to be. He's going to be awesome.

I can't wait to see. You know, everybody's like, oh, they lost Pribula, and I get it. He won that Wisconsin game for them. But it's just another way and a reason to give Tyler Warren the ball now with what he does. But no, versatility, he's faster than you think. He's way bigger than I was blown away.

He's a legit, 6-6. And he's just a, he's a game record, man. What Cotell-Nicky has done with him, I think, is just shown where Scott always makes fun of me, I always say tight ends are the best athletes on the field, and they're always open. Cotill Nick is taking that to a

new level going back to the SC game. Like I was just done and they needed every bit of it. But no, Warren's a monster. I like a bunch of these tight ends that we're going to get to in this playoff. There's a ton of talent. There's a ton of like size and these guys

that could run and you watch the NFL and seeing these guys split out now and be able to run routes on safeties and linebackers. It's an offense coordinator is a dream for them. And there's a bunch of tight ends in these playoffs that can make them a lot of money with playing well.

All right. The other game that we've not talked about is the biggest favorite. Texas now, a 12-point favorite over Clemson in Austin. Who wins and why in this one? Again, it sounds dumb. I would put Texas' defense higher or right at the same level as Georgia's. I really think they're that good. I've seen them a bunch of times in person,

and they couldn't get over to hump against George's. Georgia, and I think Clemson's up against it because, you know, Clemson played Georgia week one. We saw what they look like. And now you're going at Texas. And it's, you know, it's funny. You know, Josh Heifle's team, I think, is more built differently than his teams in the past. And Sark's teams are not what people think. Like when you watch them, their defense, they want to run the football and set up easy throws for Quinn Ewers. So I think Clemson is up against it. They haven't faced it, although Clubnick's been better.

With its accuracy, they've actually completed balls down the field. They really hurt SMU throwing those deep comebacks and opening things up in that first half last week. I just feel like Texas has too much, though. I expect Clemson to play well. I would lean towards taking the points with Clemson because that's not Texas style. They get up big, and then they rely on the defense,

and they take the air out of the ball running with Wisner. But this is the most interesting game, because Texas, again, they could win it all. They could lose this game if they don't play well. And we see when they don't play well, they don't play well. They don't have the deep ball. But they did find some things against Georgia in the short passing games. And you saw the ability of Golden and more to break tackles and make big plays.

So a lot of pressure on Texas, none on Clemson. They're the three-loss team that's here and won their conference, and that's why they're in. But I just something's fishy tells me that, Clemson can hang around the game. I don't love it at all, but I would take Clemson plus the points. I'm probably going to be on the other side of you on that one. I think that's the one that I'm most confident in. I just don't see it with Clemson and Clubnick, and I think they were lucky to win the SMU game. But real quickly, do you think Quinn yours comes back?

Yes. Yeah, I do too. Not at Texas. So Archmanning starts at Texas, and Quinn Ewers ends up where. any one of these places Miami seems like they're hot trying to find a quarterback I mean Oregon's gone to what two straight times to the portal to get somebody you're talking about two schools right there

that have a ton of money you know he's a Texas kid I don't know if what the quarterback situation is at any of the other Texas not A&M but you know the big 12 ones but I could see him taking another year the issue I feel like it now that Quinn Ewers when you look at him

in his tenure and what, I mean, leaving high school early, going to Ohio State, coming back to Texas, like, he has, this whole NIL thing started with him, you know, and he's, like, is he tired of it? Is he just want to go see what he could do at the pro level? I don't know. Can he make more money in college with those schools that I mentioned? Probably, yeah. So that, I think the decision is on him. If he just wants to be done with the college deal, I'm sure he has that, that, that,

that option. So I just, I just think with the money being thrown around by these schools, and playing another year in a new place, he's shown he can, you know, play at different places, that's what I would think would happen. Steve likes, I think, I don't, I think I have this right. You like every single dog in these first round games. And you do like Penn State as a favorite on the first half line. You like Oregon to beat Penn State in an all Big Ten final when we get there on January 20th. You will be on game day for four hours leading into Notre Dame, Indiana. Tonight you'll be in Columbus tomorrow for game day prior to the games kicking off at noon.

Thank you for doing this. Enjoy it. I will talk to you soon. Happy holidays, Merry Christmas. Yeah. And I get to go meet Scott at Lambeau Field Monday night. I got it all, Kevin. This Midwest, I'm going after it's Midwest.

You got a lot of Midwest in you. You got a lot of Midwest in you. I'm so upset because I never check a bag, and I had to check a bag with all the winter stuff I brought. Well, I mean, these conditions are going to be a lot, but again, I cannot wait for these games. We've waited for so long, and we see the matchups be here in South Bend and go to Columbia.

like there's nothing better than this. And I think it's really, really good for the sport. Stanford, Steve, one of the great prospects out of Connecticut at Tight End and just killing it this year. What are your picks right now on the show? I think we ended the year 27 and 16. Not bad. Not bad at all.

27 and 16 we would take. Great job. Appreciate it. Happy holidays. Merry Christmas. We'll be watching tonight and tomorrow. Appreciate you doing this as always. You got it, my man.

Stanford, Steve, everybody. Let's get to my smell test to finish up the show. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. Nine picks for this weekend on the smell test, sponsored by, as always, MyBooky. Go to MyBooky.orgie. use my promo code, Kevin D.C.

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for serious betters for a decade now, whether it's the NFL, college football, the NBA, the NHL, baseball UFC. You can bet on anything, anytime, anywhere, only with my bookie. All right, let's get to it. Seven winning weeks out of the last eight, four and three last week. Remember, I was four and two over the weekend, but threw in Chicago on Monday night.

But a good run here over the last two months. Let's keep it going. Let's start tomorrow in the college football playoff. These are two games that I just kind of like. liked when they came out, and I was thinking that the public would play them the way they played them. The two biggest public plays of the four playoff games are Clemson and Tennessee. So give me Texas minus the 12 and Ohio State minus the seven. I like both of those matchups for those two teams too, as I mentioned in the open to the show. And again, take Texas sooner rather than

later. I've already seen some 12 and a halves out there. It's already come up from 11. So 12 is where I'm going to give it to you right now because you can get it at 12. I think they roll Clemson, and I think Ohio State does the same in Columbus tomorrow night to Tennessee. By the way, I like the unders in those games, too. I really like the under in Ohio State, Tennessee, but that's not an official pick. The official Saturday selections, Texas minus 12, Ohio State minus 7. Nothing on either one of the two NFL games. Let's go to Sunday where, yes, I've already given you my prediction on the game, so I am giving it out as a smell test selection as well.

I like Washington plus three and a half. Philly's a huge public play. As are the L.A. Rams, they're laying three in East Rutherford against the Jets. So give me the Jets plus the three. I know I can hear the groans. you're giving me terrible teams again, Sheehan. Well, how about the Panthers? Another one, plus three and a half at home against the Cardinals in must-win mode.

And the Bears. Yeah, I'm giving you the Bears again. I'm going to buy the half point to get it to seven. The line's six and a half. I mean, Detroit is injured. I get it. But I saw the ticket count and the dollar count on Detroit. It's overwhelming.

Chicago just nobody has any. faith that they can do anything. And I get it. But, you know, why is it under a touchdown? Why do they keep begging for more Detroit action? I'll take the Bears plus the seven by and the half point. I like Seattle plus three at home against Minnesota. The Vikings are a big public play, as are the Buffalo Bills after they beat Detroit on the road last week, scoring 48. They're laying two touchdowns, 14 against the Patriots. I'll take the Patriots. plus 14, and I like the Cowboys Sunday night plus the four against Tampa. So I'm taking a couple of teams that have, you know, kind of nothing to play for against

teams that have everything to play for. The Jets would be one of those teams. Carolina would be one of those teams. Chicago would be one of those teams. Seattle is obviously still very much in it. New England would be one of those teams. Dallas mathematically is still. alive. So there are the plays. Nine of them. Texas minus 12. Ohio State minus seven tomorrow. And then

Sunday, the skins plus three and a half, Jets plus three, Bears plus seven, Panthers plus three and a half, Seahawks plus three, the Pats plus 14 and the Cowboys Sunday night plus the four. Please follow me on X on Twitter at Kevin Shee and DC, especially this time of year. I mean, only if you're making these plays alongside with me. Because I will pull some games. And late in the season, it happens much more than it does in the other portion of the season because you'll get teams that will pull players that are kind of banged up. And in the final two weeks, you'll just get teams that will pull players, period.

So sometimes that will lead to me pulling the game from the smell test and not playing it myself. So follow me on X on Twitter at Kevin Sheen, D.C. All right, that's it. Back on Sunday afternoon, most likely following the game. This is kind of a big pre-holiday weekend with plenty of family in town, with some obligations, not during the game, but I am hopeful, certainly if they win the game, game or if they lose a close one or it's a controversial one, I will find my way in here for a quick 30 to 40 minute postgame wrap. But if it's, you know, lopsided the wrong way, I may just wait until Monday to get the show out rather than doing two shows. We'll see how it goes. I know a lot of you have parties and different things going on. Enjoy the weekend. Stay warm and enjoy

the football. It'll be a hell of a weekend of football. Can't wait for Sunday at one. And fingers crossed. I mean, I'm going all in on Washington to win the game. I'll have them plus three and a half, but I actually really feel like there's a chance, a good chance they can win this game. I hope I'm right.