The Kevin Sheehan Show - Washington's Ceiling & Floor

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

Kevin opened with ESPN's NFL "Ceiling and Floor" projections for all 32 teams. Kevin had an issue with much of it. ESPN's John Keim jumped on to talk about the two days of joint practices with the Ravens.Nats' radio pxp voice Dave Jageler was a guest talking about a Washington season that seems to be going better than expected. Go to https://www.mybookie.ag/sportsbook/ for your sports gambling needs. Use code KEVINDC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. That theme will be heard three weeks from tonight. That's NBC's Sunday night football theme. But NBC handles the Thursday night kickoff of the season game.

Three weeks from tonight, the Chiefs is the defending champions against the very popular playoff pick before the season begins, the Detroit Lions. By the way, my bookie right now has Kansas City as a seven-point favorite over Detroit. This show today is brought to you by the Circa Million and the Circa Survivor pools out in Vegas. The Circa Million is $6 million in guaranteed prizes. You pick five games a week, NFL games against the spread. At the end of the year, the best record takes home a million bucks, but it pays out another 5 million to the top 100, and there are quarterly and season-long prizes available as well. The Circus Survivor Pool pays 8 million guaranteed to the winner or winners.

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I did at the Circus Sports Book in Nevada. But you, You can make your picks from anywhere through a proxy. The Circa Million and the Circa Survivor Contests out in Vegas. If you're out there, it's worth it. It'll provide a lot of fun for the upcoming season. And I'll be talking about my entries during the season as well. So, yeah, three weeks from tonight, the NFL season will kick off. Two weeks from tonight, the college football season really gets underway.

There is a week zero, but the full week one kicks off two weeks from tonight on Thursday night with a big Thursday night slate. But I was thinking just about Arrowhead and the opener on September 7th. 76,000 at one of the great outdoor stadiums in all of North American sports. I mean, what a fan base, the Chief's fan base is. But they will be there openly mocking Native American. Americans doing the tomahawk chop, you know, chanting as they're doing it. You know, that scene year and year out, both there and in Atlanta for the Braves and at Florida State with Florida State fans,

that particular, you know, situation and scene is apparently fine with, you know, the NFL and Major League Baseball and college football and the corporate sponsors of those teams. And of course, you know, we've seen over the years a lot more outrage. In fact, you know, a hundred to one more outrage over the team's name here than actually openly mocking Native Americans. By the way, I look something up because I've said this to a lot, that, you know, the mic drop moment for those that hated the name is it's dictionary defined. as a racial slur. I don't know why I haven't done this before, but I just looked through a few dictionaries, Miriam Websterdictionary.com, a couple of smaller dictionaries. Here's the definition in all of those. Redskin, noun, used as an insulting and contemptuous term for an American Indian. I don't see racial slur mentioned in any of the definitions. I don't even see the word

insensitive mentioned, racially insensitive. Insulting and contemptuous are not great terms that doesn't make the definition super happy or super rosy. I'm just saying that when you hear people say dictionary defined racial slur, you know, many dictionaries don't use racial slur in the definition. Insulting and contemptuous aren't nice things, but they aren't racially tinged either. Anyway, that's it on the name issue today. Did we even discuss it yesterday, or did I just do that on radio? Well over 100,000 signatures right now with the Native American Guardians Association petition to change the name. I want to start with something, and then John Kime's going to jump on with us,

And then Dave Jagler is going to jump on with us. The Nats beat the Red Sox last night. Now, by the time you listen to the podcast, they may already be finished with the Red Sox game today. But the conversation was more just about how the Nats have played and how they've kind of overachieved. And really, when will they begin to contend? Could it come as early as next year? So John Kime coming up next, we'll talk about the two days of Baltimore, and then Dave Jagler will join us as well. So I'm going to start with this. ESPN.com put out

the ceiling and floor records for all 32 teams in the NFL. They use 20,000 simulations of the entire season and the ESPN Football Power Index to come up with the ceiling record, meaning the best case, and the floor record, meaning the worst case. And, And I do have a bit of a problem with what they have for Washington. Now, let me give you the NFC East. Philadelphia's ceiling is 13 and 4. Their floor is 8 and 9. Dallas's ceiling is 12 and 5.

Their floor is 7 and 10. The giant ceiling is 11 and 6, and their floor is 6 and 11. And then you get to Washington. The ceiling, the best case, according to ESPN.com and the 20,000 simulations is 10 and 7. Now, just so you know, there were simulations that showed better than 10 wins, but they took kind of an average of the higher end and blended it into what they believe a realistic ceiling is. And then their floor is 5 and 12. Sealing 10 and 7, floor 5 and 12. Sealing, 10, and 7, floor, 5, and 12.

And then there's something written here called the biggest X factor, and it's the offensive line. By the way, this was put together by all of the ESPN reporters that cover each team. So John Kime put this together for ESPN, and I'm going to address this with John when he's on with me in the next segment. So I don't have a problem with the ceiling. I actually think 10 wins is totally reasonable. You know, we take the injury part of the conversation out.

Obviously, you know, a team that gets ravaged by injuries and loses more man games than anybody else could win two games or three games if they start early enough. And, you know, by the same token, if they don't have any injuries and they stay super healthy, maybe the ceiling's a little bit higher. But I think, you know, and I've said, I think they can win 10 games. For me, the X factor is really obvious. It's Sam How. It's the quarterback. The offensive line, I don't even know if it's an X-Factor because I'm just assuming at best it's going to be average, you know, and maybe worse than that. Chase Young's a bit of an X-Factor. He could really end up being a major playmaker for an already excellent defense.

But the quarterback to me is the obvious X-Factor. If X-Factor means like wild card, like if this particular player plays really well, they hit the ceiling or beyond, and if this player doesn't play really well, it's more closer to the floor. That's what I would consider X Factor. Anyway, the real problem that I have with this is the floor. I just don't see, again, absent of major injuries, I don't see how they win less than seven games. I'm going to play the over on them at six and a half. I am. I played the over last year and hit that, predicted 8, 8 and 1, if you recall. I just look at last year's team and I'm like, that team won eight games with a dismal offense and dismal quarterback play. I mean, could it be worse offensively than it was last year? I guess it could be, but would it be three games worse?

No. I don't see a five-win team. the funny thing is if Sam Hal's not the right guy and they're not going to, you know, make a run towards respectability with a young quarterback or a playoff berth with maybe Jacoby Brissette or Sam Hal, then I'd rather them have that floor be five wins. I just don't see with the talent they have on this roster. And then considering last years, they were seven and five. Let's not forget, they were seven and five. And they were holding down the sixth spot of the seven.

playoff spots in the NFC. I mean, they were the favorite through 12 games to make the postseason. They were a favorite to make the postseason. And then the giant games came and the Cleveland game came. I just don't see anything personally less than seven wins. Again, injuries change that completely. And if the quarterback, if Hal is truly awful, then they're going to go to Jacoby Brissette,

and he won't be truly awful. And by the way, I don't think Sam Hal is going to be truly awful, but I have no idea what he's going to be. Have no idea. Anyway, that's where I would say ESPN is off. I'm not sure how they got to a floor of five and 12. Other than the national media just looks at the quarterback situation and to a certain degree they look at the head coach

and they say, yeah, I mean, they're not that good. That's why they're over under in Vegas is six and a half. But I just look at a team that won eight games last year and say they can't be worse than they were last year offensively. And even if they are a little bit worse, it won't be three games worse. John Kime, right after these words from a few of our sponsors. This segment of the show brought you by My Bookie. Football's Back, so is a winning season at My Booky. NFL, college football, and a brand new cash-out system give you options to bet,

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All right, let's bring on my good friend John Kime from ESPN. At John underscore Kime on Twitter. He's got a podcast as well called the John Kime Report. You can get that anywhere you get a podcast. So these two days, John, just completed against Baltimore were big days. We had been talking about these two joint practices as almost as big as any of the preseason games, the first or the second, that this was. be, you know, a bit of a mark during training camp and a bit of a tell on what kind of

team Washington might be. But more importantly, it would be kind of a hurdle for Sam Howell to clear. So let's start there. How were these two days for Sam Howell? I think they were pretty good. You know, one thing with Howell that you don't see is you don't see a kid who's overmatched. And I think that's a good place to start for them, you know, because we've seen quarterbacks here who don't look good or look overmatch or throwing the ball all over the place. And that wasn't him. You know, there wasn't, is he perfect? Of course not. Nobody is, right? But he wasn't, I felt like his timing was really good on Tuesday, you know, I think there were definitely plays he made on Wednesday,

some in hurry-up situations, and some other Joe's that was still good. So I thought it was a good two days for him and the offense where there's still some questions about everything, right? I mean, he's going into a second year, one NFL start, revamped offensive line, new offense. It doesn't click overnight. And so there are going to be some questions going to season.

but he did nothing with his group on the job the last couple days. Yeah, I mean, like I had described on radio this morning as this was like the hurdle to clear. You know, if he cleared these two days in Baltimore with nobody alarmed by anything having to do with, you know, his understanding of the offense, his ability to communicate the offense, et cetera, and then everything pre-snap, everything post-snap, then that was it. Then he had cleared the biggest hurdle on his way to Arizona. Do you feel the same way? Yeah, I do.

And I think you can throw the Browns game in there on Friday as kind of the appetizer for all that because he did play three series. And there were situations in there where you get a chance to see how is he doing. Where is he with this footwork with X, Y, and Z, right? So you start there and then you follow into here. and he's continued to build on things that he has done. And so, yeah, I think this is. Now, when they name him the official starter,

I think that, to be honest, Kevin, like, that's more for people outside of Aspern than inside. Because, again, he's done nothing. And Ron Rivera was asked on Wednesday about it. He's like, all he has to do is continue to do it, showing what he's shown. So, you know, there's really, like, that official designation will happen at some point,

but it really is almost, I don't want to say irrelevant, but it's like it's just, you know, we all know it's going to happen. And nothing has been shown that it would go otherwise. But yes, in part, that's in part because of how he looked. If he had gone out there against Baltimore, it's like, oh, no, he's really struggling. And it's not just because the line's giving the pressure. It's because he's not making the right reeds or the footwork is all over the place. That would be cause for alarm.

That didn't happen. Yeah. And as it relates to, you know, Ron not, you know, naming him officially starter when he was asked about it yesterday, my personal view is, I mean, I don't really get all worked up over it. We know he's going to be the starter. I mean, this hasn't been a competition for this starting position. No. But with that said, do you think he's going to announce Sam Howe officially as the starter for Arizona?

Arizona soon? Soon, yes, but when? Don't know. You know, it could come after the Ravens preseason games, which is Monday. You know, not necessarily Monday night or Tuesday morning, whatever, but at some point after that, they're not in any rush to do it because, again, like, there's nothing. He's taking every rep. He's going to continue to take every rep.

Sometimes you're going to name that starter so that way that guy can now, he's going to get all the reps from here on out. he's been getting all the reps. Nothing is going to change. And again, it's just a formality whenever it is. So whether it's Friday, Tuesday, Wednesday, it's going to be. So nothing is going to change between now and then or after to, you know, we're like, okay, now you've got to start getting ready for season.

Give him a few weeks of reps. He's already getting every rep. So, you know, so, yeah, I think soon is the operative word. It's just a matter of when it. Is it the sale definition of soon, which we're, kept hearing for about four months, or is it the actual definition of soon, which is over the next week or so, I would say. You know what I mean? Sometime in that. It could be anytime. I want to ask you this question, but as I'm thinking about it, I don't even know if it's fair,

because there's really not an apples to apples comparison, because Berset hasn't been, you know, in a lot of, you know, first team reps and didn't. But, you know, how we kind of talked about this going in that, you know, as long as it was even or maybe, you know, Sam was just a tiny bit behind, then it was going to be all saying, it would be Sam Hal on the opener. How would you measure how each has done relative to the other? That's hard because of what you said. There's no direct comparison. And while Hal is facing a much tougher defense in the starters, Reset is going with lesser players around him. So I think the way I look at it is what is each showing and what does each offer?

And the one thing they've known with Berset, first of all, I think Bressett was a terrific sign. I think he's been a, he is a true pro in every sense of the word, and he's going to be good for how in the role that he's in right now, which is a mentor. And if he has to go play, they know what they're going to get. They offer different skills. And I think the whole thing has always been, to me it's always been a competition with damn where, How is Howell now versus where can you get to? Where, you know, where is he at with his footwork? Where is he at with his timing? Is it an experience thing? Is it a talent thing? Is it a brain thing? And so when you look at it with Howl, like everything that they talk about typically is an experience thing. He's a smart kid, works awfully hard. And so it's just a matter of get them more experience, get him the timing and the rhythm down here. For set, I think the whole thing is Ben is that you know who he is. And again, I think Howl is a more mobile quarterback. Preset, I think, is going to probably maybe take care of the ball a little bit better

throughout the course of the season would, just based on his history. But I think Howl's in a good job of taking care of the ball. I did so against the Raven. So I kind of look at that way, and who has the higher ceiling right now? Well, it's Howl because we don't know where he can get to. We know what Preset offers, and I think if they had to go play, I think they'd be fine with him. but I think for the long range, you still look at howl, or the long term.

So it's hard to say how they've done. But I think, I think Peret, I will say this, like, Bissette has gotten done. I think they've each progressed in their knowledge of the offense. For example, early in the spring, when we first went out to the OTAs, remember the first seven-on-seven session I saw Berset, and he had to tuck and run a lot of times, on a seven-on-seven, which is not what you want. I mean, you're going to still do it occasionally, but you don't want it all. lot because it's usually an indication of

unfamiliarity with the offense or uncertainty with what you're seeing et cetera. And it was noted because like, okay, what does that mean? Well, you saw him progressively get better with that. And his knowledge of the offense progressively got better and you saw that fade away. Again, it's going to happen every once in

a while for both quarterbacks. But you saw that really improve. And so I think both their knowledge is all offense has increased. But it's just, you know, what I think what Howell offers, he has a good arm. He has pretty good instincts and he has the mobility. So when you look at all that, it's why they're going to ride with him.

And the snaps that Preset has received with the first team, which was leading in the Brown's game, it was just a handful, and it was usually, it's really just like, hey, just in case you need them, you want to have some to have some experience with some of that group. So, yeah, I don't know. I don't know if that necessarily answers your question, because I think it's difficult, but I'm trying to look at what each one offers and how they progress. Well, I actually think you gave me and everybody listening some information on Jacoby Brissette and the fact that it's improved for him as well.

You know, Ron said yesterday, when I asked about all of this, when he wasn't answering the question directly about naming Sam Hal the starter, he said, we're really comfortable with the quarterback room. A, do you believe them? And B, how do you feel about the competition? comfortable about the quarterback room? Well, I think they, I think comfortable is a pretty good word because, first all, it is a good room.

And again, you have a, essentially a coach next to him in Brissette, in addition to the other coaching you're getting. The question, though, is to what level is it, can this group perform? I think Brissette is an excellent backup. So you start, like, that's, they're, they feel like they're a good hand there because he's a guy. And even when, even if, like, if this last. week had gone wrong for how.

Let's say he just didn't show the progress they needed, then you could go to Brissette knowing because of how, you know, he's been in this league a long time, he knows how to prepare, he knows how to do this. It wouldn't take him long to get to where he needs to in a few weeks, right? So I think that's a comfort level for any coach. The question then, and I think they feel really good about how is progressing and where he's come over the course of the year.

When he was at this point a year ago, and it's funny because I think some people don't realize how far he had to go just with footwork and everything. And it's like that's a big deal, and he has come a long way with it. But to his credit, he's worked himself to come a long way. So I think you feel comfortable. I think they feel comfortable that he can play in this league.

but again to what level and when so i would have i think it can be a good situation but again there's still there's still kevin there's still a lot we don't know about him because it really you know you can have all the faith in you in the world you wanted him but until he goes out there and you handle situation next situation why situation v and then more teams get tape on you then they try this and this and this against you how do you handle that that's when you're going to learn even more about him but i i'll say that like you know, we've seen a lot of quarterbacks come through here. I mean, I think he's got traits that you say this kid can be good.

But when? I don't know. So the comfort is in his progression so far as much as anything. By the way, what you just said was the one, I have issue, and I'm going to bring it up to you here in a moment, with your floor, not so much your ceiling, but your floor in the ESPN column today and your X factor. But I'll get to that in a moment.

So the floor is not set by me. Oh, okay. Well, hold on. Don't answer that because it's a good tease for people to keep listening. All right. Because I've already discussed it in the open. We'll talk about that. And the open of the show.

Yeah. But tell me about Eric Behani. Is there any real drama around anything associated with Eric Beannamy or not? I don't think so. I mean, nothing has really changed since, like, the comments, and to be honest, it's kind of become a forgotten thing. You know, he's going to be the same guy on the field, and he has been the same guy in the field.

You're going to hear his voice all the time, and I don't think he's ever going to let up and he made that clear. So it's always been on the players to adjust, and I don't know, you just don't hear a lot. and when I talk to people close a lot of these players, some players who I thought, well, maybe this guy was one who complains, like, no, this guy really likes it.

So, you know, I don't think there's, you know, Kevin, when there was, if there's going to be an issue, it will be, if they start off slow and the offense is really sputtering. Yeah. Because, you know, that's like players want to see progress. And, I mean, I go back to when Marty Schottenheimer was here.

And not many, you know, I don't know how many people listening remember that year, start, they were terrible in the preseason offensively. They were 0 and 5 and the offense was sputtering to the point where one time we're sitting in the press box and a piece of one piece of papers floating down

from above. And somebody joked that there goes Jimmy Ray's playbook and Jimmy Ray was the office coordinator. They were really bad. But, so their own 5 and people were ready to mutiny against Schenheimer. I mean, that's the worst I've seen covering this team for

a first year guy. And then they won it out of 11, and that all went away except for a couple people. So the point is, like, production and results are going to matter in this situation, because if you're going to ride guys really hard, which is nothing wrong with, but then you need to see the

results. And so if they do, now, I think they're also smart enough to know you have a young quarterback, and you have a new line, and the whole thing takes time to put together. But if you got to that point, let's say they start off, again, start off slow, have some issues, that's when you say, okay, is there anything?

Right now, I just, again, I mean, really since that day, it hasn't really been a topic. It doesn't seem much. You know what I mean? So I don't view it as a big, I don't view it as a problem. Yeah, it was nice that Marty had all the support from ownership, too, as he was going through that home five start. Yeah.

I mean, it was a good decision to get rid of him and John Schneider. Yeah, great, great decision. Thank you, Dan, for that one. Thank you, Fred Razzner, who really couldn't stand Marty. Yeah. All right. So offensive line, how big of a concern is it for them and for you? Well, certainly, I've been using a big question because, and I'm going to say it this way,

because there's, to me, listen, Andrew Wiley has to be better than he was against the Browns. Okay? I felt like the run blocking at times against the Browns was pretty good. And I think in practice at times it's been pretty good. And, you know, so I think there are a few reasons for. that. I think the interior is starting to do a nice job. You have to get the left guard settled. Citi Charles keeps going in and out with the injury. Can Chris Paul do it? There are different styles that they have different strengths. But I think it can, you know, the question I have

is, I mean, you have started, or new starters at four spots. That can be difficult. And you don't have the young stud on that line. I think Cosme can be a good player at right guard. But you have a line that has, you know, do you have the tackle that can match up with the pass rushers in this division? Because it is a difficult one in that regard. So I have questions about that. And how much will this, and this is where, this is, here's a part like, individually you can look at it and say, okay, there's a problem.

Like, again, how is why are they going to do? Is that a concern? Is that a question? How can you help him? And what we don't see yet is the effect of game planning. And I think there will be an effect on that. When you're in a situation where you're not sure if you're running or throwing, how is that going to play out? How does Howell handle the RPO handoffs, for example, and I'll point to the game against the Brown where the first handoff looks like a bad job by Leno letting guy inside, the reality is how has got to get a deeper drop on that to sell the possible pass and keep Robinson out of a direct path where he's got one place to go, which is angling forward right into the defender.

So like little things like that, how is that going to help them? And, you know, the chips and all that. So that all goes into it. So I think there are ways you can help alleviate issues on the line. But is it going to be good enough? And I don't know. I don't know that we can say that yet. I do think there's some areas that can be, okay, this can grow.

I think Nick Gates can be solid at center, cause me a right guard, you know, but what's everything else going to look like when it goes? So I don't know. And whether you want to call it a question or concern, it's going to be one that they have to answer. And they have, oh, what I know, Kevin, is that line has to feel, you know, it should be better than last year. It's really hard not to be. But to what level? They've got to play at least be an average line, and I think they'd be okay.

But will they get there? And I just, I don't, you know, I think it's a little bit early to say that. Do you have any feelings one way or the other on Chase? young so far? I think he's shown some pretty good things. I think he looks good off the ball. I mean, obviously, we didn't see him in Baltimore. I know he was limited against the Browns.

It was like four snaps, but there were a couple rushes that I liked where, you know, the big thing has been the stutter steps, right? And I know, like, in 2021 before the injury, he would take these big stutter steps. And what I saw against the Browns is a little bit more decisiveness, right? and like there may be a little bit of a stutter, but it wasn't pronounced like it had been, because when it's pronounced, you lose all the power in your hands,

and he becomes a less violent player with his hands, and that's the strength of his game. So there was a rush he had where he attacked the left tackle, the rounds, wills, and just kind of gets him a little bit on a slight stutter, but a quick one, and then attacks, I think, to the outside, or it gets inside, and he puts pressure off,

oh, no, gets around him, all the fact, Sean Watson, and that's the kind of stuff you want to see from him. So I think you've seen that from him during camp, like more of what you would hope to see from the number two pick in the draft. He's got to, you know, he's got to be on the field. And I think with the stinger, it's always the abundance of caution. But I think he does at times, not at times,

I think he's a pretty good coming off a lot. So, you know, I think we'll see where that translates, but it, I mean, he doesn't look like the knee is holding, it doesn't look like the knee is holding them back. It's just a matter of like getting back to how you rushed as the second half year, look at particular. All right. I want to finish up with this floor ceiling thing from ESPN today

that you were a part of, but maybe not as big of a part as I thought you were. But real quickly, defensively and offensively, give me the players other than the, you know, the so-called star players that have really stood out in a positive. away. All right. Well, I guess I guess Brian Robbins

would be a star player, right? Yeah, I mean, he's a starter. So, you know. So, I mean, I think he's, but I think he stood out, and I'll say this, like Brian Robinson, the past catcher has stood out. How's that? And because I think he's going to be more of a threat in that way.

His hands are really good. He's running some pretty good routes. So I think that's an area that you can enhance the offense with. I think Gianni Brown had has had a nice summer. So that would be another guy that I think you could say, okay, because if Brown can become a bigger part of the offense,

even if it's just like a couple plays a game, that's all he has to do because you have other guys around you who are going to do more. Johan Dodson would be a named player, so I'm not going to put him on there because I think he's that kid's really, really good. But Brown would be the guy. He says, you know, they like him in this system,

and I know he's reunited with Howell out there, but it's as much about the system and the scheme, they feel fits him in terms of because of his speed. He can get deep. He can run some of the stuff underneath the slants and stuff that they like. So, and, you know, on defense, so the guy, guys who stood out, like, as far as the starters go, I think St. Juice has been really, really good. I mean, that guy, he has stood out to me as much as anybody in the defensive backfield.

Kendall Fuller's been solid. but he's doing what he always what he has done. He's solid and he's smart and he plays that way. But I think St. Juice, the reason I bring him, say him, because I think he looks like a better player than he was last year. And he has the ability to go inside.

He can cover in and out, but he's playing confident. He's moving confident. He uses his length when he's covering inside. He's quick inside. So if he has to play in there, he has strengths that can help him in there, but he just seems to be moving well and moving with confidence.

And when guys do that, good plays result. So I think he's the guy that has jumped out. Andre Jones are the rookies. I think is flashed without a doubt. So those are the guy. And Derek Forrest is another guy. Like I think he's had a really good summer as well. And, you know, going in, I wasn't sure where he was going to fit,

but he's maintained a role with the starting group so far. So he's done a nice job, too. ESPN, I talked about it in the open. They had their ceilings and their floors for all 32 teams. Their ceiling for Washington was 10 and 7. The floor was 5 and 12, and the biggest X factor was the offensive line. So tell me real quickly, which part of this did you have responsibility for and which part did you have response.

The X factor. You wrote the X factor? Yes. How did you pick the offensive line over Sam Howell after, what you described about 15 minutes ago. Well, the extractor to me is like they have to be good. So I don't, maybe there's a, I mean, I think I was going to, I don't, I don't have a lot of doubts about how.

I mean, as far as like, can he play in this league? I think he can. So I would have more questions about the line and being good. That's why I went there. Okay. So I have, I mean, I like what I've seen from Howl and I think the kid's going to be able to play. It's just like, when can he be good?

And so, yes, I mean, the other thing is, you know, yeah. So I think it was also, I think the X-ector was a non-QBX factor as well. So that was a other part of the equation. Oh, okay. I think, yeah, so. But I still with that, because the line has to be good. If the line is, if the line plays to a certain level, then I think they can be a solid team. Because you look at the defense, we know what they have there.

I think, you know, if you want to look at the linebackers and say that, I mean, I think Jamie Davis has progressively done a nice job this summer, but you can look at that and say that's an X-Factor, because if you're Davis with that kind of skill and talent, you need to meet you behind that line, you better make some play. But I think for the team overall, it's that line. So if they do, they have enough depth there in case, because something always happens, right?

But no, and it was a not, yeah, it was a non-QBX factor, and that's why I went there. Okay. I just, you know, when you described Sam, how earlier, it's kind of the same way I feel, which is, I have no idea. Once the game start, I have no idea what we're going to get. And that to me is sort of an X-Factor in recognition, by the way, that he has some skill and talent that sort of fits today's quarterback thing. I think the other X-Factor would be kind of Chase Young and what he means to the defense.

Now, the biggest gripe I had actually, I don't know how they could come up with the floor being five and 12. If you take injuries out of the equation, right, because the injuries if they happen, you could win two games. But assuming relative health, this is a team that won eight games last year was seven and five with a dismal offense and dismal quarterback play. I could see somebody saying,

maybe the floor is six or seven, because I'd put the floor at seven. I think 10 and 7 is fine, 7 and 10. But they won eight games last year with an absolutely underwhelming offensive football team. I am with you on that,

and that's, you know, and if they had asked me, I also know this, I don't know all the mechanics of how they do things or come up with it. To me, that would be a, things just go off the rails. There's a lot of injuries and et cetera,

but when I looked at it, like, you know, is the line going to be a strength? Well, it's hard to say that at this point. But is it better than last year? Well, you know, you don't have trade terms, out there, and you don't have Andrew Normal, so I think it should be better, and you have, you're not playing your fifth center at this point.

So, you know, can they withstand anything? I don't know, but I do think, like, how, I mean, look at, I really enjoyed covering Taylor Heineke, enjoyed it, right? Right. But there were limitations on that field with him, and I think Powell will be a better quarterback. Now, the question is when, but so you take all that,

the only thing where you, where I have a bigger question is like, okay, the schedule is tougher. But it's also tougher for every NFCE team. And of the NFC East teams, they have the easiest of the four. They're still hard. But of the four, so I guess if you're taking that into account, but I think the defense, the second half of the year, you look at like the number of big,

once they got rid of the William Jackson experiment, that secondary really got better. And they stopped letting up so many big play. Right. And they were one of the best defenses in the league in the second half of the year. And as long as that continues, I'm with you. Like, I don't, I don't, I, I, I've said this, like, the people would say 5 and 12, 4, 13, like, I'm not sure what you're looking at. You know, and you know what also happens here is this, you have to win, right?

You have to win at some point because otherwise, anytime they're like, oh, there's all this change. Oh, they said this about the enemy. We're going to downgrade them because I get this. There's a friend of mine who, like, every year, like, something will happen. And this is the reporter. he'll text me as 8, 4 and 13. He did the trash, and he said the other day, he's like 5 and 12, like, dude, you said 4 wins last year.

So at some point, you know what I mean? And I joke, and it's a joke, right? Right? But it's like, you know, but I think they get downgraded for some of that stuff. But again, you have to go out and win. And if they go out and do something this year, now then team people look at you differently as far as the floor. And I think, like, the Giants floor was like 6.

I think they and the, I think they're right there with the Giants. So, yeah, if they had said six or seven, I'd say, yeah, five, this feels like everything went way off the rails. And I'll say this, Kevin, like, this has been one of their best camps under Rivera. In fact, it's their best camp under Rivera because it's been, the pace and the energy and the urgency has all been better. The practices have been more physical. And you can credit Baini, because he definitely came in and changed some of this. But there's been an overall change.

and I think they're, in part because these practices and the practice with the Ravens, I think they're going to be more prepared for knowing who they are entering the season than they have been under Rivera. So how much is that worth it? And that's something that I get to see close up that others outside of here aren't going to take into account. And it may be something at the end of the year, they say, oh, well, this is why Washington won nine or ten games. But I see it up front, up close that I don't, you know, I had Nikki Joval on my podcast yesterday and asked her, Like, do you feel more or less optimistic after at this point compared to going into camp? But I think it's either about the same or more.

It's certainly not last. Yeah, that's a really good way to put the first couple of weeks here. And there's more to go, including a game on Monday night. I mean, the Cincinnati game will mean nothing. But here's the bottom line. There's been nothing alarming injury-wise. There's been nothing alarming coming out about the quarterback. I think the biggest concern would be kind of, you know,

is this offensive line, did they really do enough to upgrade it? And we probably won't do that until they start to play games. And Kevin, here's what, and the other thing is, and this, I don't want to get into a whole other discussion. I know you got to run me out. But you got to go. You told me you had to go. Well, yeah, I've got to finish the story. I know.

They'll be okay. So I look at how, and again, you and I have seen a lot of bad quarterbacks come through here, and I've seen guys who succeed, right? How did Kirk Cousin succeed? as a fourth round pick. And, you know, the way he succeeded because he worked his ass off and he's a smart quarterback. And I look at how he's a smart quarterback who works his butt off. And so I'm starting there.

And I think they're both tough players. I think Howell puts bad plays behind them better. It's certainly at this point in his career. But, you know, I think they also have the quick twitch arm tailing that helps. You know, you get to your second reach, see it, boom, go. That kind of stuff. So, and I'm not saying he's Kirk Cousins. My point is, how does a guy who's drafted outside of the first round succeed?

I mean, Kirk Cousins has a, not that, you know, I know everybody is these controversial. Kirk Cousins are quality NFL starter. And if they can get that from how at some point this year, whenever, then they're going to be in, there will be a much better shape. But, you know, we've seen quarterbacks who haven't succeeded. And it always comes back to, are they the first in and last out? We'll oftentimes know what are they, what is their knowledge of the defense, et cetera. And so I think that's where Howell has.

That's why I think this kid's going to be able to the kid can play. Because I think he has those intangibles in those traits that translate to success at some point in the NFL. Great job. Appreciate it as always. John's podcast is a good one. The John Kime Report, you get it anywhere you get a podcast, same place you get mine. And of course, follow him and read him at ESPN.com on Twitter at John underscore Kime. I will talk to you later.

Appreciate this. Thanks, Kevin. All right, let's shift gears and talk some Nats for the first time in a while on the podcast. One of my favorites, Dave Jagler, voice of the Nats on the Nats Radio broadcast. Next, right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Jumping on with me right now is one of my favorite broadcasters in town. Dave Jagler, part of the team with Charlie Slows on the Washington Nationals Radio Broadcast Network. You can follow Dave on Twitter at Dave.

J-A-G-E-L-E-R. Now, by the time some of you listen to this, the Nats might be on the way to winning a series against the Red Sox because they have an early start this afternoon at 405 in the getaway game for Boston. But I wanted to have you on because I've been talking about them here over the last couple of weeks is just one of this seasons, you know, Cincinnati's in that category, a couple of other teams. but you wouldn't think of, I think outside of this market, of the Nationals as a significant overachieving team so far through 2023. Is that a fair description? And if you agree with it, why have they overachieved? Well, I mean, I think they've overachieved to what the preseason projections were, Kevin. They haven't gotten the notoriety, you know, the first month of the season, it was Pittsburgh, because they got off to that amazing store over the first month.

They've come back to the pact, and the Marlins' vets and notoriety. And you mentioned the Reds. But because the nationals haven't been near 500, they had so big a hole to climb out of, I don't think they're getting the national play as far as overachieving. But I think early on in the season, the way it started, the way the offense struggled, you know, it looked like maybe that we'd be headed to calling another 100-loss season. So if you want to say they're overachieving, I could go along with that. But I think around the league, when you talk to folks that you know on other teams,

coaches, players, fellow broadcasters, the word is out that this team is much better than last season. And it's basically, you know, you're going to show up for a three-game series with the nationals. And if you're going to win the series, you're going to have to play some good baseball. They're not just going to hand it to you. It was even early in the season before the nationals really took off. We were talking, Charlie and I to Max Scherzer, and he basically said, you guys aren't a laughing stock anymore. And that was Max's way of giving a compliment.

It was kind of talking about negatively about last year's team. But he doesn't dole out comments easily. So the fact that the nationals aren't laughing stocks, I took as a real positive. And they haven't been. So, yeah, I think they've played the best ball in the division record-wise over the last three or four weeks. So you're starting to see the fruits of the labor actually turns into a positive in the win-loss category more than just, hey, they played well

and they lost a close game or dropped a tough series, now you're actually seeing them win series against postseason contenders. Yeah, I mean, they had their third series sweep in the last seven or eight, you know, over the weekend. So whether it's describing them as an overachiever or maybe people were just sleeping on them, why have they played the way they've played, especially, you know, those two games before the All-Star break and since? Well, to me, I'm focused on the guys who are part of the rebuild here and could be a part of the next postseason team here. And you're seeing those guys, and most of them are very young.

They're going to go to their ups and downs in a full big league season. And right now, the majority of those players are trending upward. And you mentioned that two-game stretch against Texas before the All-Star break, that kind of corresponds to when C.J. Abrams went into the lead-off spot. And his season completely turned around in the narrative on his season, turned around when he moved to the leadoff spot because his offensive numbers have taken off his stolen base numbers have gone crazy. And coincidentally or not, because he's played with more confidence and better offensively, he's played much better defensively. He's only had two or three errors since basically July 1st. So focus on him first. K. Bear Ruiz, second, you

want to be strong up the middle. I think he's been better defensively as the years gone along. And the timing of his home runs and the fact that he has some emerging power is much needed because when he was acquired, and we didn't know a lot about him, but we heard, you know, potential 20 home run power. Well, I think he ended up with whatever it was seven or eight home runs last season.

We didn't see that over a full big league season last year. We're starting to see that now. So when you have, when you're strong up the middle, with Abrams at shortstop Ruiz behind the plate, and then focus on the pitching. And, you know, it was a strong first half for Josiah Gray. He's, you know, had some issues here in the second half. Mackenzie Gore, his good starts are far and away,

better than anyone on the staff's good starts. His good starts are great starts. You're seeing ace potential when he's on his game. Now there are some negative starts mixed in there. And as you get older and more mature and goes around the league another time or two, you're going to have more of the good starts and less of the clunkers. So you focus on those pieces. And not only they're doing well now, but you can see them doing well in the future.

And then, you know, a couple arms in the bullpen. Lane Thomas's emergence from a guy who, you know, basically the Cardinals just threw them in to get an aging and decrepit John Lester at that point. And Lane Thomas has been one of the best players on the team. So there have been a lot of reasons for positive thinking with this year's club. By the way, when you mentioned C.J. Abrams moving into the lead-off spot, didn't they turn things around? I'm trying to think what year it was where Jason Worth went to the lead-off spot. And it was very influential to an offensive comeback.

What year was that? You would know. Well, 2012, because that year he'd come back from the wrist injury, and he'd hurt his wrist against the Phillies early in the season. He didn't have his power, but you knew the worth could give you good at bat and could draw walks and start a rally. So, yeah, Worth is one, and the other big one, even more recently than that is Kyle Schwerber. Basically, the month of Schwerber coincided with Davy Martinez putting him in the lead-off spot, which is something that Joe Madden had done with the Cubs when Schwerber went through struggles,

and actually the Phillies copied that playbook last year. They have. when Sorba was struggling. They put him in the lead-off spot in June, and he took off again. So, you know, sometimes it's a different look. You know, you're talking about, you know, a power hitter in Schwerber and a guy with more power than worth. But for Abrams, I mean, I think he profiles as more of a classic lead-off hitter. When you think back to what a lead-off hitter was, yeah, he can hit some home runs, but he can run the bases, create some havoc.

And he's actually had some better at bad quality. He's never going to draw a ton of walks, like maybe the, you know, 1970s lead-off guy, but if he can get on base and with the new rules, a single kind of turns into a double when he steals second. He's being very aggressive, you know, running early in counts after getting on base. Speaking of Schwabber, he's still in that leadoff spot, and the Phillies are coming in this weekend, and they are a red-hot team at Harper, by the way, last night,

two home runs. By the way, just as a quick aside, I mean, Tommy John, after that incredible, you know, postseason last year, and back in June, I mean, I know. he's not going to be, you know, CUNY juniors more likely than not, I think, going to be the National League MVP. But Harper, have we ever seen

somebody come back that quickly and be as effective as he's been off of Tommy John? I know not pitcher-wise, but, you know, position player-wise? Well, and not even to not to correct you a little bit, but it was actually May 2nd was the day that he was back on the big league roster

after having the surgery in November because they played till the end of October in the World Series. He is the fastest recorded player returning from Tommy John surgery. Obviously position players are going to come back more quickly than pitchers who are based on a 12-month schedule, but he is believed to be that the fastest to return to an active big league roster after Tommy John surgery. And we saw him the first series in Philadelphia.

He was kind of joking around with guys around the batting cage. Hey, I'm basically a single-titter now. So he was back, but he wasn't back. And with the two-homber game, maybe unfortunately for the timing, he might be back to be back to being Bryce Harper because he's kind of been, yeah, he's been good, but he hasn't been Bryce Harper yet. Maybe he is rounding into that form. Yeah, I actually think they're a threat when we get to October. So back to McKenzie Gore, and you said he's looked apart of an ace. Do you think he will be one? I do. I mean, I love everything about him. I love the mound presence.

I love the stuff. Even the emotion on the mound, sometimes it's channeled. negatively, but when it's channeled positively. I think that's great. And last night we saw a maturation of his catcher, Ruiz, you know, Gore is cruising along. He has an issue to walk. He's pounding the strikes. And he walks the number nine hitter

in the sixth inning in a two-nothing game. And immediately Ruiz went out to the mound because you could see Gore slam the rosal bag down. And that's what he tends to get harder himself. He's a perfectionist. Ruiz immediately saw that went to the mound. Next pitch, he gets a double play to get out of the inning in the sixth. So there's

There's a lot of growing and maturing that's happened, and the exciting thing is there is more to come. Because like I said before, he's had these starts where he's a little bit wild. He's spraying the ball. Sometimes he goes 0 and 2. Hey, I want to strike this guy out. All of a sudden it's 3 and 2 and it's an 8 pitch at bat. They're trying to convince him that your stuff is good enough. If you attack the strike zone with your fastball, you're going to have success and you're going to get quick outs.

And that's what we saw last night. His pitch count was, if not for the blister, and if not for this innings limit that he's on this season, he potentially could have gone eight, maybe nine innings last night. He was that pitch efficient. So his good starts are ace-like. Now it's just a matter of having that happen a little more often. Let's just say that, and I'm not going to predict a Cincinnati kind of year next year, but who knows? You know, we've got, you know, Wood and we've got Cruz hanging around,

and maybe there is a superstar similar to what Cincinnati saw, What's the pitching rotation when they are back in contention at the very least because of Atlanta being in this division as a wild card contender? I know it starts with gray and gore, but what do you see after that? Well, as an aside to what you're saying, before I answer that question, when you mention the names of Wood and Cruz, it's going to be an exciting spring training next year down in West Palm Beach because this is the year. Next year, 2024 is going to be the year that those guys are playing in big league spring training games from day one. They'll be playing like the second half of big league spring training games, which probably for us are snoozers. It's really hard to do because, you know, it's players you don't know or players you're never going to see again.

But next year, when Cruz and Wood and maybe Hassel and some others are playing in these big league spring training games, it's going to be fun. I would encourage Nationals fans to come down to spring training next year because you're going to get that chance to see them up close and personal, and next spring's going to be a lot of fun. As far as the rotation, yes, you want Gore and Gray to be a part of it. You want them to finish this season healthy and be a part of it next year. Cade Cavali is the guy. His injury was crushing when it happened in spring training this year.

But if you think back in your Natch history, if you could, if last year was 2009, and this year is 2010 when they started that step toward respectability, well, 2010, Jordan Zimmerman didn't pitch basically until the end of the season because he had Tommy John surgery in 2009, and then Stephen Strasbourg blew out in 2010 and didn't pitch much in 2011. So maybe Kate Cavali can be that guy that next year he's on the innings limit. And then in 2025, he's full go to lead this rotation with McKenzie Gore. So Cavali's got to be in the mix. Potentially in September, maybe we see Jackson Rutledge, 2019 first round pick.

And it had a terrific year at AA has made his way to AAA. He said a couple of good starts of late. Jake Irvin kind of out of nowhere wasn't maybe on the high prospect radar. As far as the consistency for Irvin since the beginning of June, he's been the most consistent national starter of the six guys that we've seen make starts. So I think Irvin has put himself in that discussion.

And from there, you know, if you sprinkle in a veteran or two, we'll see how it plays out. But there's excitement about some of these young pitchers. And then now you fortify that with the wave of position players who we're going to see in Big League camp next year. that gets you excited about 24 and 25. It's a good thing that the Steven Strasberg innings limit in 2012 didn't blow up into a big story. I don't remember talking about that at all, do you?

No. You know, it's kind of just in thinking about him, it's kind of tragic the way it's ended, but I still think the career he's had, I'll never consider it to be short of anything brilliant because of what happened in 2019 and really what he was in the postseason for this franchise. Right. Well, you draft a guy 1-1, and he won a World Series for you. Now, there were some bumps along the way,

and obviously what happened after 2019 is, as you said, I mean, you termed it to a pretty good way. It's been tough. But, I mean, you draft a guy 1-1, and he leads you to a championship, that's a home run. That's an absolute home run. All right.

Last one for Dave Jagler. So we've kind of talked about it a little bit. But as you look forward, do you think next year it's possible that they're in a wildcard contending position? Or do you think that comes in 25? Well, I mean, it depends what they do in the offseason. I mean, this past year was kind of, you know, picking up guys who had then designated for Simon and other places. Dom Smith, Jamer Candelario. Candelario was a big hit. He played well and was traded for a couple of prospects.

Let's see what they do for the offseason. But if you look at, you know, if we kind of have the parallels in National History I was talking about, you know, if 2002 was 2009, 2010 becomes 2023 and 2011, the Nationals finished 80 and 81. Now, that's not going to get you in the postseason, but with the expanded postseason format, back in 2011, there was only one wild card. Right. There's three wild cards now. And if you look at where the National League third wild card might be this year, you're talking maybe 84, 85 wins. So if you're in contention for 500 around the trade deadline, you're in wild card discussion unless there's a drastic change

in the standings going forward next season. So absolutely, I would, you know, if we take in mind what they could do in the offseason, if that gradual step forward happens, and they're able to jump up, like, you know, if they're going up 14, 15 Wednesday, if they can make that jump of even 9-10 wins, you're right around 500 late in the season, then yeah, you're in the discussion. Thank you for doing this. Dave is so good at what he does, and that broadcast team of him and Charlie's been sensational for years.

At Dave Jagler, J-A-G-E-L-R on Twitter. I appreciate it so much. My pleasure, Kevin. We'll talk to you later. Nats are going to have a chance to play spoiler the rest of the way, too. I mean, they've got seven games with Miami. They've got three games with Toronto. They've got games with Milwaukee. They've got games with Baltimore and the Dodgers.

And the Braves now, you know, the Braves and the Dodgers are safely in his division champions. And the Orioles are going to be in the postseason, but maybe not as a division champion. But, man, the schedule is pretty tough. them the rest of the way, but they have been playing really well. I enjoyed that with Dave. All right, that is it for the day. Back tomorrow.