The Kevin Sheehan Show - Washington's Chances In Cleveland

Episode Date: September 25, 2020

Cooley and Kevin today with a Washington-Cleveland preview and picks. They also previewed some of the biggest NFL games of the weekend including Rams-Bills, Raiders-Patriots, Cowboys-Seahawks, and Pac...kers-Saints. Kevin had 8 "Smell Test" picks. Cooley had his "Lock of the Week".  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 A Cooley and Kevin Football Friday coming up on the show. But before that, I want you to help support your local businesses. Whether they're your corner stores or coffee spots or favorite shops, local businesses have always been on your team supporting you and your community. They remember your order and call you by name, always giving back, making a difference and going that extra mile. But right now, more than ever, local businesses need our support. So let's be there for them.
Starting point is 00:00:28 The next time you go shopping, help your team score and choose to shop at a local business. And while you're there, look for the contactless symbol and tap to pay with a contactless visa to help support your community. Because where and how you shop matters. Visa, everywhere you want to be, official partner of the NFL. You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show.
Starting point is 00:00:59 Here's Kevin. A Cooley and Kevin Football Friday. We got a lot to get to it, and we're going to get to it quickly here on the show. You texted me last night, and you said, just remind me, I've got a great what do you got for the beginning of the show tomorrow. I got something for you. So what is it? Yeah, I woke up this morning and I forgot. I told you I forgot.
Starting point is 00:01:24 I have no idea what it was. That's the what do you got that he forgot. I guess. He forgot this great thing. that happened. It was something involving the football team. It was? It was something involving the football team?
Starting point is 00:01:40 It was a long-term thought. I don't know. I got to write these things down. Yeah, you really do. Especially if I have a couple beers. I really just got to jot them down. How many beers did you have last night? I actually didn't have that many beers last night.
Starting point is 00:01:57 We just played golf and I drank three or four beers. after maybe one beer when we finished and then three or four afterwards. And I was on the phone with somebody. I was on the phone with kind. And I had this great thought. And I text you my thought. I don't know. It's lost.
Starting point is 00:02:17 Next time, next time, don't just text me that you've got a really good idea. Text me what the idea was. Well, it was so good that you shouldn't forget it. Well, I know.
Starting point is 00:02:28 You know, there's very few times. that I text you and say, I got a great idea. No, you've done that many times in the past. You don't usually forget the idea within, I don't know, an 11-hour period like you've done here. But the, but you text me that you've got a really good idea. And for me to remind you to ask you about that great idea, which is what I did. Now, I set you up a little bit because you told me right before that you had forgotten it, but I thought that that would be funny. So I included it into the show. I played golf yesterday as well and had, then went to dinner after that. So I had several beers,
Starting point is 00:03:11 and I had what we like to call in the trade of transfusion on the golf course. And I then went to dinner and had a few more beers. And I'm telling you, Cooley, you know, it wasn't that I drank too much, but for whatever reason, I woke up this morning and I was feeling it. You know, I woke up at 4.15, which is essentially the same time I wake up every morning, and I was feeling it, and I took like multiple Advil. I was trying to drink water. And it was a three-hour grind on radio this morning. Could have used you on radio this morning. But it's a football Friday, so you get you fired up. You got to fight through it. You know, you got to play. This was, this was pain, not injury.
Starting point is 00:04:00 So I got through it and got through the game with pain. Yeah, you wake up and you know you got a battle. I got up at 415 too. Yeah, your time, 415. Of course, my time, 415. Mountain time. Yeah, what time's the sun come up there? Started watching a bunch of Browns film.
Starting point is 00:04:18 Oh, you were, yeah. All right, let's start with that here on the show because it's Cleveland Sunday, Langston, Lange 7 to Washington. I actually think this is a really interesting game going into it. And in many ways, it's like one of those games that could be a swing game for this team because it could ultimately lead to, hey, we can go have ourselves a competitive season or it could be the beginning of a one and four start to the season with the Ravens
Starting point is 00:04:50 and Rams on deck the following two weeks. So let's get to Washington wins. If Washington wins if. I have great ones. I hope you don't steal mine. We didn't compare notes on this. No, we did. Washington wins if.
Starting point is 00:05:11 Duane can get the ball down the field. If he can complete passes down the field, they have a chance to win the football game. Right now his average completion is at 4.4 yards. 4.4. It's not good. There's only five lower in the league. In those five, Drew Breeze is part of it,
Starting point is 00:05:30 but he really has become one of those guys that throws short often. Oddly enough, Captain Checkdown, old Kurt Cousins, is really leading the league. He's second to only Driscoll. He averages completions at 9.7 yards. Yeah, he had some big ones in week one. By the way, I'm going to let you finish your point, but I wanted to interject this for all that have tweeted me to say,
Starting point is 00:05:56 you really haven't talked too much about Kirk Cousins performance from last week, have you, Sheehan? Do you know that he had seven balls dropped in that game against the Colts? I do. Chunk plays. It's really interesting because I was listening to Zimmer the other day, and Zimmer wouldn't come out and really put it on the quarterback at all. And he's done it before. He has said, yeah, Kirk's got to be better. and he didn't do it at all.
Starting point is 00:06:26 And then I was wondering why. And I went back to the All-22, the game cast and quickly went through the condensed version. Seven big chunk balls right in the hands of guys like BZ Johnson and the Irv Smith and a couple of others. And look, they were terrible on defense again. They weren't very good offensively. And he wasn't really good even when the balls were dropped. but the seven chunk plays would have changed the game for them. It would have put them in the game.
Starting point is 00:06:58 They were just flat out drops on perfectly thrown balls. The interceptions, one was a Hail Mary at the end of the first half, and the other one was a deflection off what really should have been a caught ball. But anyway, it was behind him. It was behind him a little bit. It was thrown into double coverage. I mean, it should have, like, you want those to be in completions, though. Agreed.
Starting point is 00:07:18 But anyway, look, he hasn't been good enough. and they're not going to be a good team unless he really steps it up because they stink defensively right now. But anyway, I digress. Yeah, he's got a significantly high number in that stack category. Continue. So back to this down-the-ball thing, I'll get to this when we get to Cleveland as well. But Baker Mayfield is 8.1 yards per attempt down the field. So he's throwing the ball down the field.
Starting point is 00:07:51 Washington right now is second to last in offensive yards per game, 275. Only the jets are worse. They're second to last in the offensive yards per play 4.2, only since he's worse in the NFL. They're dead last in both those categories in the NFC. They didn't play the two best defenses in football. They did play two good defenses. They didn't play the two best defenses in football. They have to find a way to move the ball and get those chunk plays down the field.
Starting point is 00:08:18 They do not have the talent. and right now they do not have the ability to matriculate the ball down the field, as Hank Stramm would put it. That's just not in their MO. So they're going to have to make chunk plays and chunk throws down the field. That's a way they can win this ball game. All right. Let me add statistically to the just woeful offensive numbers. They are dead last in third down offense. They're converting on 30% of their third downs. That's 32nd out of 32 teams in the NFL, and that's not going to be good enough either. I'm going to start with their defense. They have to stop the run this week. If they don't stop the run, they don't have a chance of winning this game. Cleveland is second
Starting point is 00:09:10 in the league in rush offense behind Green Bay, where Aaron Jones is going crazy in these first two games. Nick Chubb legit power and speed combined a real star in terms of his talent. Kareem Hunt, Hunt's averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Chubb's averaging 5.8 yards per carry. And they played Baltimore in the opener. Really good defense. That game got a little sideways after some turnovers. It was 10-6, though, in the first half, late into the first half in that game.
Starting point is 00:09:42 The intrigue for me in this game is we've seen. the pass rush, we've seen the talent from Young, we've seen the talent from pain and others along that defensive front. You loved KPL's performance on Sunday. I really want to see what they are as a run-stopping team. We had two totally different kinds of offenses, the Eagles, no Miles Sanders, and they're going to throw it more, and they did 42 times to 17 runs, then the rusher that you were worried about in the Arizona game was the quarterback. This is Kevin, Stifansky, Shanahan, you know, Kerry Kubiak, they're going to run it, they're going to run play action off of it. And by the way, in the tape, in the all-22 stuff that I watched, I thought
Starting point is 00:10:27 Mayfield was really good on play action with that running game. I'm not a Mayfield fan, but if Stefansky can run the football like they want to do and be able to boot him and play action him with guys like Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry and Hooper and Nojuco, et cetera, they're going to be pretty good. But stopping the run. This is a up front, stop the run, and limit them to something a lot less than basically over six and a half yards per carry combined. If they can't do that, then you're asking the offense to keep pace, and that's not possible.
Starting point is 00:11:07 So the first real run defense test of the year against running backs, not a quarterback, And then next week it's a whole other challenge with Jackson. But you've got to stop the run on Sunday, period. It's going to be a big challenge for them defensively. You did a heck of a job in one foul swoop, stealing two of my Redskins win if. But I knew you would, so I'm going to add to both with those. We'll start with the run stuff. Oddly enough, and it's two weeks into the season,
Starting point is 00:11:37 the three teams leading the league and rushing in yards per temp are Shannahan systems. Shocker. Matt McVore, Sean McVeigh's number three, and Stefansky is number two. Yeah. But to add to Stephansky, I'm watching this game, and they are gashing Cincinnati late with counter and power. And then I'm
Starting point is 00:11:58 watching duo, and I'm like, Stephansky's a pure zone run guy. And it hit me, like a ton of bricks. It's got Bill Callahan written all over it. Oh, yeah. Right. Bill Callahan. is their offensive line coach and for a team or for a coordinator that had been predominantly zone run. They have a boatload of gap scheme run plays. So when you talk about counter
Starting point is 00:12:25 and power, you're talking about pulling your offensive guard. Right. And then kicking out with or pulling a tight end as well with the guard and kicking out with a fullback or kicking out with an edge player. And they actually added a fullback that plays quite a bit, Andy Janovich, the guy that they brought in from Denver, who I loved in Denver last year. It's more of a tight end, but they added him as a fullback. It's a good player. And they can run the ball in a lot of ways. That backfield is the best in the NFL with Cremont and Chubb.
Starting point is 00:12:56 You better bring your freaking big boy path to tackle Nick Chubb because that guy can do everything. He's something. He'll run through contact. He can avoid contact. He is really, really good right now. Both those guys are. that's interesting about the that it's not heavy zone and yet you listed as the top three rushing teams you know the shanahan the shanahan tree with well there is there is a lot of zone
Starting point is 00:13:23 implements more than than bill had run and you know so as you look at cleveland's offense my compliment to this and really my key here is obviously they do have to stop the run but i said they have to hold Cleveland to three yards or less per play on first down. Now, Cleveland is a team. They rush it 66% of the time in first down situations. And when they get on the other side of the field on your side of the field, they rush it even more. And almost all the passes through two games have been run action or play action passes. So you've got to limit them. They're averaging six and a half yards per play on first and ten, six and a half yards per play. Yeah. How about second three and a half?
Starting point is 00:14:07 That's a pretty good situation to be in. It's a pretty good situation. And, you know, you look at their play propensity and they're incredibly balanced on second down. Well, no shit. It's second and four every single time. Right. So, yeah, they're going to be balanced on second down. So it's a team that's averaging over six and a half yards per play on first down.
Starting point is 00:14:25 If you want to get after the quarterback, and Baker hasn't been sacked much, it's like three percent of his dropbacks is all he's getting sacked on. It's because he's in great situations. You've got to keep him. in second and seven pluses and then third and you know you can rush. That's going to be absolutely huge.
Starting point is 00:14:43 Stopping the runs a huge part of that. But you can't give up chunk plays on first hand. You've got to hold him to less than three. All right. Next on my list is you've got to be able to account for Miles Garrett and not let him wreck the game.
Starting point is 00:14:58 He is talent-wise, top three in this league in terms of defensive game wreckers. There's no doubt about it, the talent level of a Miles Garrett. And we saw it last year on display even before the suspension that ended the year. And you've got an offensive line that I know you were more positive about in your film breakdown than I think most people would. But if you don't block up Miles Garrett for a team that's really struggled offensively, it could be a nightmare. And that'll lead to a third and very cliche-driven final point that I'll have that I'll wait for,
Starting point is 00:15:35 for your third final point on, but 95 and 99 on our side, those are the two best players on the field on Sunday. And you better, you better be able to block him somehow, even if it takes five people to block him, because he can wreck a game single-handedly. Miles Garrett is so good, and they'll line him up everywhere. In third down situations, they'll line him over your weakest offensive line. They'll put him over either guard. He can rush from any direction. So you're going to say that Morgan Moses is going to get the bulk of it. They didn't practice at least one day this week with the hip. Missed practice yesterday.
Starting point is 00:16:14 Yeah, hip, hip injury. Yeah. So maybe not a fully healthy Morgan Moses who's played really well healthy through two games. But Miles Garrett is a massive problem. The other thing is it's really hard to just, obviously, you've got to pay attention to Miles Garrett. But Sheldon Richardson's awesome inside making plays. Larry Ogun Jobi.
Starting point is 00:16:34 They love them. They love them. See, he wears number 65. He has a lot of speed, man. This guy's playing through a couple games really, really well. Like, Ogun Joby's a problem in the middle. And then last week, as I like to call him, Oliver Vernon. He's not going to play.
Starting point is 00:16:52 He's not going to play son. So this dude, Adrian Claiborne, who wears 94, he's got long hair comes in. Yeah. He's good. He's going to be a problem off the left side. So their defensive line is outstanding. you got a lot to work with here. And if you're Cleveland, there's a ton of talent.
Starting point is 00:17:12 So, you know, we'll see how they handle it up front. My next point in the Redskins win if, is they got to eliminate the big plays on defense. And I talk about stopping them on first down situations, and that is a lot of the time where Cleveland will generate some of their big plays. But they have a huge explosive play rate. O'Dell Beckham is really good. There's a double move on a bootleg last week where he gets over the top.
Starting point is 00:17:36 early and scores on that game. He's got a burst, man. And he can get downfield and he's good as anybody run after the catch. You cannot forget about Jarvis Landry, who's, he's faster than people think. Super, the tight end, who they added from Atlanta is another very good player. I don't think in Joku's going to play in this day. He's on the three-week IR, I think. But they have another tight end that they added, that they drafted this year. His name's Harrison Bryant. He won the Mackey Award at Florida, I think Florida Atlantic was looking up Harrison Bright today. He's got something to them, especially as a route runner. He's got a ton of balls at Florida Atlantic. He's a good pass catching tied in. So they got problems. There's a ton of talent. And you know,
Starting point is 00:18:20 you're going to say Miles Garrett's the best player on the field. But when Odell Beckham Jr.'s on, he's the best player on the offense. He'll be right there with those couple guys as the best player on the field. How is who how has Hooper looked for them so far? I think Hooper is a excellent past catching tight end. It's funny because you watch him. You didn't love him as a free agent. Well, the reason I didn't love him as a free agent was because I didn't want to pay $12 million a year to a guy who doesn't have a ton of versatility.
Starting point is 00:18:54 I don't think Cooper is a good blocking tight end. He gets by. He's very serviceable, but I don't think he's a great blocking tight end. And I don't, like there are times when you get man-to-man coverage where you just don't see this pure separation. But still, I'm watching the game against Sensing. He runs by people. He sneaks for whatever reason.
Starting point is 00:19:11 He kind of sneaks up on people with some speed. And he has great savvy for space and feel in zone situations, where to get the ball, where to sit down, where to throttle things. I do think Hooper is a really good player. I don't disregard that Austin Hooper is one of the best 10 tight ends in the league. And you add that to Landry and Beckham. And you're sitting here saying there's a lot of big play opportunities to be had for Cleveland. the problem for Washington's defense has been giving up the big plays.
Starting point is 00:19:39 They're pretty good defensively in third down situations. They've got after the quarterback. They've put pressure on people in third downs. They've turned people over. They're good enough on defense if they don't give up the big play to hold anybody under 20. Maybe not anybody, but certainly Cleveland, they're good enough to hold Cleveland under 20 in this game. Look, last year, if you recall, I mean, they were the worst third down defense in the league. They were the worst third down defense in seven years in the league. And I remember the first two
Starting point is 00:20:09 games of the year, the Dallas and the Philadelphia game, they were like allowing, you know, 60% on third down. It was something ridiculous. It's unbelievable. Well, right now through two weeks, it's early, obviously, but they're seventh in the league in third down defense. Last in third down offense, seventh in the league on third down defense. And, you know, they are now, now Arizona was two for two on fourth down. Remember that. So they're two third down misses, but you didn't force punts there because they went two for two on fourth down. But it's a good start. And I hear you on the big plays, but my question to you would be, and I know this is a simplistic way of looking at it, but in thinking about Stefansky and the way he ran the Minnesota offense last year,
Starting point is 00:20:56 with Dalvin Cook in that running game leading to a lot of play action, and then eventually teams, you know, coming up and saying, well, we're not going to let Cook beat us. We'll make Kirk and the receivers beat us, which they did. Is it a pick-your-poison situation? And if it is, wouldn't you take Mayfield, you know, having to make big chunk throws? Or would you rather get gashed? It doesn't necessarily have to be a pick-your-poison situation. You just have to play sound coverage on the back end of things. I mean, I think our guys can still get after Mayfield, even in run action stuff. Are they going to have to load the box to stop the run?
Starting point is 00:21:41 That's the thing is you shouldn't have to with your front. Okay. You can bring Landon down. You shouldn't have to. The other thing that I thought about in stopping Cleveland's offense in Stefansky, and I know that this is a completely different coordinator and a different system for Washington, but with their upfield rush and thinking about that game in Minnesota last year,
Starting point is 00:22:02 where Washington was really in that ballgame for a long time, right in Minnesota. They got screen to death. The screen game was massive. And if you're going to slow down some of that rush, I would look for Stefansky to get to a lot of screens, even in early down-and-distance situations. I'll bet this is an eight-plus screen game for Cleveland.
Starting point is 00:22:26 So stopping the screen is going to be big, too. I mean, it's funny because I say that, like, Stephansky is still going to have this thought. Like, I screen the heck out of this team last year. And it's a completely different team, but you still have that resonating. I can screen these guys. Right. So I think that's going to be big.
Starting point is 00:22:45 You know, I said as well in the Redskins win if flipping to offense, the third downs are going to be the real key for Duane. I mean, Cleveland gives up almost 50% defensively through two games and third down situations. And they gave some up to Burrough. But that's the big part about. why Washington's offense has been so dreadful is they can't stay on the field. Yeah. The yards for play aren't good.
Starting point is 00:23:14 But their yards, in a lot of situations, yards for rush aren't as bad as they really look. I think it's like 3.4 right now, but there's been some good carries. It's just you've got to be able to get to the run game. And to get to the run game, you've got to convert their downs. They're going to have to, that's probably the ultimate key, really. You know, we talked about this on Wednesday. Like, obviously, turnovers are the ultimate key. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:36 But the third downs to me, and Dwayne moving the ball and getting the ball down the field and making some plays offensively. They have to do something on offense in Cleveland. Yeah. My third point was you can't turn it over early and get behind. That's not going to work. But I'm going to add to my third point. You have to approach this game as something other than, you know, R. D. We're not in 16 game NFL seasons, research and development. You know, we're just trying to learn.
Starting point is 00:24:15 And, you know, we're going to take some learning out of this. It's a three, four, five year plan. And the offense isn't going to be installed until next year. And we're putting a lot on these guys, see how they can handle it. And at the end of the game, when we're down to scores, you know, I know my team, you guys pipe down out there. I know what I'm doing here. I'm not going to get these guys hurt. not going to hurt their psyche. I think if you're going to approach these games as research and development games, you're going to lose a lot of games. So when we do this segment, which is Washington wins if, we have to have some sort of recognition here that they're actually going to try to win the game. So my third and final point is they have to actually be interested in try to win the game much more than developing something for the future and planning for the future and using this as an
Starting point is 00:25:10 R&D opportunity. Because I don't want that anymore. Here we go. Bring it on in here. Come on. Everyone get in here. Not really a big game. We're really trying to get ready for 2021, maybe even some of you, 2022.
Starting point is 00:25:25 And go out there and really treat it like a practice of sorts. You know, if we get down, it's fine. actually be able to call some of the plays we didn't think we were going to get to. And we'll get a look at a lot, a lot of guys, as Mike Shanahan once put it. We're going to take a look at a lot of players. We're going to find out who wants to be here in 2024. We are going to find out right now on September 27th to 2020. Who wants to be on our contending team in 2024?
Starting point is 00:25:57 I mean, honestly, it's really ridiculous, isn't it? I don't... It's going to be a great opportunity to go watch film after. Don't really care about the result just yet. Let's not think about the result. Right. Just think about the process. Do you know who never talked about the result and never talked about winning or losing
Starting point is 00:26:18 is arguably the greatest coach in the history of coaches? And that was John Wooden. John Wooden never mentioned winning, never mentioned losing. He just said, you go out and you, execute and the result will take care of itself. And he just didn't believe in talking in terms of wins and losses. He talked about in terms of, he believed in playing the right way and playing, you know, the way he wanted them to play. Look, it's a honeymoon period with Rivera. I'm a Rivera fan. Everybody knows that that's listening to it. I think that they completely overachieved in hiring
Starting point is 00:26:57 him. I loved, I liked watching Carolina's teams over the years. I, think he's a good coach. I do. And I think they've got a good decent person in the building now beyond being a good coach. And I think right now he's dealing with so much. He's dealing with cancer. Okay. He's fighting cancer, a treatable form of cancer. But I can only imagine what's on his plate and the, you know, the anxiety over all of that as he's trying to build a football team. not to mention all the shit that's been going on, you know, over the last several months, that he's been the point person on, at least publicly. So until Jason Wright got into the organization.
Starting point is 00:27:37 With that said, well, let me add to that. I like the under-promising. I like that he's acknowledged that there's a culture change that has to take place here. And he recognizes how bad the culture's been. But I don't want to hear after a loss that this was a story. essentially an R&D game. I don't want to hear, you know, if you want to completely undersell it moving into Sunday, that's fine, but I really, I guess I want a better sense that he is, as Coach Thompson
Starting point is 00:28:11 would say, fattening frogs for snakes. You know, that's what I want to have a sense of. But part of me the last week or so is like, this guy might be serious about just sort of, you know, making sure that he's, you know, handling the psyche and steering clear of big injuries and really planning for 2023 or 2020, you know, or 22. Look, there could be a huge opportunity for anybody in this division to go 8 and 8 and be a playoff team this year. It's amazing.
Starting point is 00:28:45 I mean, it's also the full Bill Walsh school, more relevant to most football coaches when they look at that whole process situation. is it's Bill Walsh. How so? What do you mean? I'm missing. Bill Walsh was all process. Oh, about the process, yes.
Starting point is 00:29:04 All about the process. The first year in San Francisco, it wasn't about winning football games. Obviously, winning came with the process, and it was something that they wanted, but they lost a lot of football games in Bill Walsh's first year. Two and 14 in the first year, and then they won it the second year. It was, Bill Walsh went through a full R&D season. So, it was, it was the process for, I've never heard it. I've never heard it described that way, have you?
Starting point is 00:29:28 I've heard Bill Walsh describe it that way. As an R&D season? No, no, you described it that way. Yeah, exactly. Okay. Yeah. You didn't like the term R&D. Well, I just, when you said it, I thought, wow, did Walsh actually call it that?
Starting point is 00:29:41 No, but he didn't. Okay, go. That would be amazing if he did call it that. Yes, it would. They weren't two and 14 before their Super Bowl season, their first one. They were six and 10. They were two and 14, two years. prior to that. He went two and 14,
Starting point is 00:29:57 six and ten, and then 13 and three and won the Super Bowl. Walsh did. So he had two years of culture change and R&D. Anyway, do you think they have a chance Sunday? No. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:21 I think they, you know, I say that, I just, I still, I don't see him winning this football game. But I think they find a way to, there's a way they can cover here. The way they cover is the way they covered and won out right in week one, and that is to have the defense really change the game and change field position and hand the offense several opportunities, not one, not two, but several opportunities to come away with points. I mean, that's really what happened in week one. And week two, they had a chance early. they handed him the ball with a chance to score.
Starting point is 00:30:59 And then they got a three-and-out deep in Arizona territory and a punt that would have taken them to midfield. But the punt was fumbled. So, I mean, I think you need a lot of that in any of these games to have a chance. But I think about rushing teams, Cooley. I always think about teams that can really run the football and dominate things like time of possession and gash you and wear you out.
Starting point is 00:31:25 ultimately even a good defense, if it's on the field, as you described the other day, for 80 plays, it's not going to work in this league up here, as Coach Joe would say. You've got to do, when you have the ball, you can't punt on six of your first seven drives and fumble on the other one like they did in Arizona. So it is incumbent Sunday on it would be great if they got a couple of short field opportunities and could put some points on the board before they fall behind. But they're going to have to, like you said,
Starting point is 00:32:01 they're going to have to move the football. And keep Chubb and Hunt and Beckham Jr. and Landry and Hooper off the field. I didn't mention Mayfield. What did you see from Mayfield in these first two games? I think he was put in a tough situation against Baltimore early because they got down. here's what I saw a guy that wasn't incredibly accurate against Baltimore that then flipped the script
Starting point is 00:32:30 and against Cincinnati was a dime dropper great throw after great throw against Cincinnati and so to me a lot of this will hinge on Baker Mayfield his accuracy down the field do you get going I also I see a guy that really struggles under pressure yeah see a guy that makes poor decisions under pressure right that feels flustered under pressure and Cincinnati just they don't have the front to pressure anybody. I actually think that Cleveland has a pretty good offensive line. When I watch that offensive line. How about the rookie from Will's from Alabama? Jedrick Will's was a guy at Alabama that played only right tackle. He played right tackle. He played right tackle at Alabama. He's playing left tackle. He's a rookie. He's a guy that can get
Starting point is 00:33:17 after a little bit in the past rush situation just because he's a little uncomfortable on the edge. But he's a physical blocker. He gets after it in the run game. I think Wills is a pretty good blocker in the run game. The rest of them, Joe Petonio's been there forever. He's a good player at left guard. Wyatt Teller wears number 77. He kept showing up, but kept showing up.
Starting point is 00:33:38 And they get a good right tackle back in Jack Conklin. Jack Conklin was out last week. They got him in three agency. Yeah. I think Chris Hubbard is his name. And he actually played pretty well too. But since he just doesn't have that dominating up front group. So you're going to get a real sense of are we going to be able to create pressure
Starting point is 00:33:59 with our guys. It's just to me, it's like get them in situations where they can create pressure. And that's going to be the critical thing is I think you put pressure on Mayfield. He'll make bad decisions. He'll throw picks. He'll throw balls away. He gets flustered. But in second and three, it's hard to do that? And my other concern with when you're like, do you think they can win this game. I go back to the Philly game and they win this game if they stay consistent with their linebacker group and don't suck
Starting point is 00:34:30 up hard to run action stuff. Like I've thought against Philly there was way too much with eyes in the back field and way too many holes behind that linebacker group to throw the ball down the field. And so then you're asking your safety's like, hey, do we want, we got to come up and play some of these things. And that's when those shots occur
Starting point is 00:34:46 over the top. So their play action stuff does scare me. and and then screen stuff I think scares me and that's not even to mention that they're the best backfield in the league and they're great at running the ball I think there's a lot of talent and Stefansky does a really good job I think it just it will hinge on on Baker mayfield does he play or does he wet the bed I mean that that's to me the game as well yeah I mean last year all those expectations and they just were horribly coached and and mayfield there was a massive disconnect there with coaching staff and quarterback.
Starting point is 00:35:24 Stifansky, I think, knows what he's doing. He's got some people on the staff that know what they're doing. I wanted to ask you a couple of quick questions. Number 23 for them defensively, the safety. Is that the Minnesota safety? It's Andrew Sendejo. He's good. I think he's a really good player.
Starting point is 00:35:47 Do you agree or disagree? I think that there are times when you see things out of Sendejo where he can be a good player. But I think, I thought Sendejo was a guy that got exposed more than anybody else in Minnesota's secondary. And I thought through the first couple games, he was, him and B.J. Goodson, who wears 93, were the two weaklings in that Cleveland defense. What about Ward? Ward's one of the best cover guys. Is, are they going to play more zone, more man? And if it's man, is Ward just going to trail? and give McLauran star treatment? I think that's a really good question. Travel is the word I was looking for.
Starting point is 00:36:26 Will he travel with Marlorn? Honestly, I think that's a good question. If I'm playing us this week, I'm definitely playing more man coverage. They get Kevin Johnson back and Greedy Williams, two guys who they hadn't had. And so when you don't have a couple of you guys that really can play man-to-man stuff,
Starting point is 00:36:45 you're not playing as much. So they played a lot of coverage in the first couple games. It's almost impossible to look at the Baltimore game. Who the hell knows what anybody's going to do against Baltimore? Because it's this implement whatever defense we're going to try to stop this offense. It's so versatile and different. So looking at, I would treat it like they probably treated the SINCII game
Starting point is 00:37:05 where you're going to get multiple coverages. But essentially, I would probably guess more man because I got to assume they think they can cover our receivers. Take Terry out of that equation. No one, no one's covered Terry yet. But maybe you bracket Terry and you get some man to man stuff. I mean, they'll mix and match for sure throughout the game. They played cover three. They played quarters coverage.
Starting point is 00:37:28 So they played everything. But I think when you add two of your better corners with that front and their ability to get after the passer, I play man against us, five is Cleveland. Grant Delpit, who, you know, for a while leading into the 2019 college football season, a lot of people thought he had a chance to be a top half of the first round pick. he slipped to the second round. He's on injured reserve because Greedy Williams was sort of the same situation in 19. He was a projected first round guy fell to the second, both LSU players in their secondary. So you're not going to see Delpit. I have no idea how long he's on IR, but he's on their
Starting point is 00:38:05 IR list. Yeah, I mean like part of me thinks there's a way for them to hang in there and, you know, lose a 20 to 13 type game, you know, with some good defense and some short fields that maybe lead to two or three field goals and maybe a touchdown and, you know, something like that to hang in there. I could see a short game, a fast moving game, not the Thursday night game with 61 pass attempts from Burrow. I don't see that. You know, I'm trying to think what Dwayne's biggest, you know, attempt game was in terms of passes because last year in the starts, it was really very much a run-first thing. I'm going to pull it up because I don't, so far this year he's had, he was 17 at 31 in the opener. What was he last week?
Starting point is 00:39:00 Something of 33. 19 and 33. Okay, 33. He had 35 attempts in that loss to the Jets when the game was 34 to 3. So that was the one. But it's you said, I mean, you said this, everyone understands this. And for whatever reason, Duane has played better down multiple scores. You're not going to win this game if you get down. They will, they will gut you in the run game if you keep giving them the ball and opportunities. And I know we're good up front. But their runoff, their rush offense is excellent.
Starting point is 00:39:32 So you let them get a lead and stay completely balanced. You're in trouble. All right. Any more on this game before we, you know, quick. jump around the NFL and then I'll get to a smell test and you to you to a lock of the week. I think I'm good. I just, I'm finding it hard to think. I'm sitting here looking at this on Covers.com, the over under on this game's 45. Yeah. I'm having a hard time seeing this game 25 to 20. You know, if it were to be about exactly that, the Redskins cover. Yeah, 24, 21 would be more of an NFL
Starting point is 00:40:08 score. 25, 20, any few. can score any amount of points. No way people go for things, kickback. I'm just saying 24-21 is a score that you see more often than 25-20. That's my only point to get to 40. Okay, so 24-21. I think that's going to be tough. Yeah, I never know.
Starting point is 00:40:30 I mean, you get a turnover. Like the one thing Washington, one thing that can change this game is if Washington can force some turnovers, maybe score on defense. That'd be nice. have I asked you this before. Are you a cereal eater? Not really. My kids are. What kind of, do you and Maddie get healthy cereals for them? You were actually talking about Captain Crunch berries.
Starting point is 00:40:53 We were sitting here, the kids were eating it yet one Wednesday what you were talking about it. That's funny because Captain Crunch was a long time ago favorite. And then during the pandemic, one of the boys brought a box of Captain Crunch with a lot of other cereals home one day. and then I started eating Captain Crunch two times a week. And then I got the Captain Crunch with the Crunchberries, which are really good too. I want to tell you about Magic Spoon, because Magic Spoon sent me four boxes of their zero sugar,
Starting point is 00:41:24 11 grams of protein, and only three net grams of carbs cereal. They gave me four flavors. Coco, fruity, frosted, and blueberry. The blueberry and the cocoa are great. It tastes like real cereal. It's got a wonderful taste with milk. or just eating cereal dry. It's really, really good and very healthy for you.
Starting point is 00:41:45 It's gluten-free, grain-free, soy-free, low-carb, and GMO-free. If you go to magic spoon.com slash Kevin DC, you can grab a variety pack and try it today. And be sure to use my promo code, Kevin DC, at checkout, and you'll get free shipping. Magic Spoon's so confident in their product, it's backed with a 100% happiness guarantee. So I'd love to get that in my picks, my smell test picks. I wish I could offer a 100% happiness guarantee on my smell test picks because there hasn't been much happiness, but maybe some is coming this weekend.
Starting point is 00:42:20 But if you don't like the cereal for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. So there's no risk. MagicSpoon.com slash Kevin D.C. Use my code Kevin D.C. for free shipping. We thank Magic Spoon for sponsoring. the podcast. Now this word from Indochino. Hi, this is Paul Tenorio from the Athletic. When I buy dress shirts off the rack, I tend to end up with shirts that drape off my broader shoulders and look boxy on me. Just the other day on vacation, we took a family photo, and the shirt I wore just
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Starting point is 00:44:11 and I hit on the smell test pick with the dolphins yesterday and liked them outright. How about Ryan Fitzpatrick? 18 of 20, do you know if you went back to last week's game that he completed 21 straight passes into the second quarter last night before throwing an incompletion that was catchable by Gisicki, the tight end? but he was 18 of 20, 160 yards, and the dolphins crushed Jacksonville 31 13 last night. So that was really the bad game of the nationally televised games. But you've got great games Sunday. First of all, in the one o'clock window, Rams at Bills. Buffalo's a two-point favorite in that game.
Starting point is 00:44:53 The Rams look like so far, don't you think the Sean McVeigh Rams of two years ago? Rams look really good so far. They do. They look really, really good. I would say that in the first two games, you're also talking about McVeigh, who's got a great feel for both the Eagles and the Cowboys. So it'll be interesting playing a really good defense in Buffalo. And they're playing a pretty explosive offense. I do think that the Rams look very good.
Starting point is 00:45:22 I'm just so impressed with Josh Allen and what the bills have done in the last two years. And I love McDermott. This is a huge game. This is a – I mean, you talk about a good week. This is the start of it. This is a fun game. A really good game. You know, that's an interesting point.
Starting point is 00:45:35 McVeaf, his familiarity with the Eagles and the Cowboys, although really, you know, it's a different Cowboys team and a different staff. But it is really, Josh Allen, I forget if we had this conversation the other day, but I had this conversation on the radio show and with Tommy yesterday. I used Josh Allen as the comp for Dwayne Haskins, not stylistically, okay, because they're different quarterback. but the comp where Josh Allen in his first 11, 12, hell, 15, 16 starts, you know, people were saying, oh, my God, massive mistake.
Starting point is 00:46:14 This guy can't play. The numbers were terrible. You know, the team around him wasn't necessarily as good. They had a good defense. And it took time. You know, everybody's pointing to Kyler Murray. And, oh, by the way, Joe Burrow, after two games. I mean, let's calm down a little bit, even though you and I both think Joe Burroughs going to be very good.
Starting point is 00:46:34 Justin Herbert. I mean, how does Dwayne do what he does? And Justin Herbert doesn't even know he's playing. And he comes in and he lights up the Chiefs for 312 yards. Josh Allen, in terms of patience, playing, struggling, learning, you know, that's why I am not. And I know that you have a bit of a hunch on how you feel it. will turn out for Dwayne. And I know you like Dwayne. But I think right now, if we're being totally honest, you would bet that it probably doesn't work out that he ends up being a true
Starting point is 00:47:12 franchise quarterback, a true top half of the league starter. That would be your wager right now, wouldn't it be? I hope he proves me wrong. I really do. I think that people have struggled with this idea that I have a bias against Dwayne. I don't. I really have a bias for Dwayne. It's also funny, I will answer your question. But in terms of bias, I think I told you before week one, and I've told multiple people this, like, Troy Acky was one of my favorite dudes in that locker room. Right.
Starting point is 00:47:42 I've graded him a D two weeks in a row as well. Right. I can't. I don't let the bias get in the way. I'm cheering for Dwayne. If you were to take his first starts of last season and these couple starts, you would have to bet that he would not be. But that said, you're looking at a guy who just switched offenses after his first year
Starting point is 00:48:05 when I thought it would have been best for him to probably not play his first two years. So I wouldn't bet the house on it. Like I wouldn't go all in on the way not being a franchise guy. I think there's a lot there to him. I think there's leadership. I think there's confidence. I think he has a lot of poise. I just think he's got to grow a lot.
Starting point is 00:48:28 To me, that's the thing is the potential. potential's there and the basis for being a good player's there. He's just got so much growing to do as an NFL quarterback. You reminded me of something when you were talking about APKI. Rivera was asked about APKee and Rivera gave for the second time in five days, if you go back to Sunday after the game, he gave, you know, that little speech where, you know, you guys don't know what I know. You guys aren't there every day. Troy Apke didn't play as badly as you think he played. said he gave up some big plays. And you, even in your grading of APK, you said, you know, there were some moments there where Troy did, you know, a decent job. And Rivera gave that speech on. Was that not exactly what I said? I said, it's not as bad as you think. Right. It's just, this was my ultimate description was there's a reason they call it a safety.
Starting point is 00:49:20 Yeah. Because it's supposed to keep everything safe. Like when you're the safety and four four plays get over the top, you're giving up too much. NFL games change on two plays. You can't give that up. I mean, to me, those change things. So he can eliminate a couple of those big plays. He's fine. He's not as bad as people think.
Starting point is 00:49:43 He's a decent tackler. He'll come down and he'll make some plays. The Kyle and Murray ones were tough, but that's Kyle and Murray. So the Apkey stuff, I'm not quitting on Apki either after a one game grade or two games. I think there's enough there that you would stick. with that, Keith. Listen, in R&D mode, they're not going to yank them. They're trying to figure it out. They've got a lot invested right now. Right. The store will take care of itself. I mean, let's get it. They're going to see, they're going to, they've got a lot of trials with some of these
Starting point is 00:50:16 medications. They got to get through these trials, these clinical testing trials, and we'll find out. It may take six, seven years, but this is a process. Right. Right now we're playing checkers, and we've got to move to chess. Back to the NFL card. The Buffalo Rams games is good as any matchup on the day, and there are several of them. The one thing that I was just going to say about Buffalo, I like Josh Allen too.
Starting point is 00:50:40 I love the way he competes, and you know how much I love Devin Singletary. And Diggs had eight catches for 153 yards last week in his second game. So that is a huge addition for them. And by the way, so far, I think Minnesota's missing Diggs. But defensively, Ed Oliver looks really. really, really good. This was a guy that some people thought coming out in the 2019 draft could be the number one pick in the draft a year before and slipped in that draft a little bit because
Starting point is 00:51:09 of character concerns, et cetera. He is tremendously athletic up front. And they've got other guys. I mean, Jerry Hughes and Tradavius White obviously is a really good player. You know I've always liked Micah Hyde. And I've always said to you, you know, going back to Green Bay Days, you know, going back to when he first got to Buffalo, I just think that he's got a nose for the ball. Like he just, he has a real great anticipation about what's going to happen, which is why he's in on a lot of big plays.
Starting point is 00:51:41 I think that team's tremendous defensively. Oh, and they are. You didn't mention J. Edwards, who I think is one of the best linebackers in the league. The guy out of Virginia Tech was like the overall pick. AJ Klein,
Starting point is 00:51:52 I think, is a heck of a linebacker. He was in New Orleans forever. So there's so much talent, so much talent. Yeah. It's a shame they're no fans because that fan base has been waiting for a legitimate contender for a life. They'll end up having fans there by the end of the year. Yeah, hopefully.
Starting point is 00:52:07 So another big one o'clock game. How about Raiders at Patriots? I'm not a Derek Carr guy. You are. Tell me why. So the craziest thing about Derek Carr, I keep watching him. I've watched the last couple games. You're like, is this guy a D or is he a B?
Starting point is 00:52:28 Like, is he a D or an A? He's either great or terrible. Right. That's the hard thing with Derek Carr is you see flashes of really, really good. But then you see flashes of terrible. What is he doing? So I think this far in, you'd like him to be a little more consistent. But the Raiders with their ability to run the ball right now,
Starting point is 00:52:53 some of the things that they're doing on offense and what they've built, I think they got a shot. I think they get their ass kicked in this game against New England. I think New England beats them by 20. I think this is going to be a rough go of it for them, too. Derrick Carr, to me, looks sometimes like he has no idea what's going out on the field. And it bothers me because he's got some weapons. Ruggs wasn't even a factor on Monday night.
Starting point is 00:53:21 But Cooley, my favorite player from that game and on their team is Jonathan Abram. I think he is going to be a superstar in this league at safety. He was part of that Mississippi State defense with Jeffrey Simmons and with Montez-Swett. The defense that I said two years ago, in 2018, yeah, 2018 was the best college defense I'd seen in many years. They just did not have an offense, but I mean, they completely shut Alabama and LSU down that year. and they've got a bunch of NFL players in the league off that defense. Abram, if you watched Monday night, my God, he flies around, he hits people. He's going to be a star in this league.
Starting point is 00:54:09 And I think this is what year two for him. He went end of first round or maybe early second round. He was my favorite player to watch coming out of Mississippi State. He could play safety. He'd play nickel. They can move him inside a linebacker. He was so physical. what did he go like 27th overall something like that so was it the first run i forgot if it was late
Starting point is 00:54:29 first or if they got him yeah no it was it was first round but it was like when did the when did sweat go uh i weren't when i 27 right didn't they trade back in into 27 no abram went 27 oh my fault 25 was it for them i don't i forget where they got sweat so when that when that trade came up and just talking to people around the park at the time, I thought it might be abram. Oh, well, it wasn't the, um, wasn't Darnell Savage really the guy that they were, they, they, they were considering at 15, like sweat and Savage? They love Savage from America. That would have been, it, my bet to you is if it would have been exclusively Kyle Smith drafting, it would have been Savage. At 15. And that blue,
Starting point is 00:55:23 that would have blown everyone's mind. and everyone would have been irate about the pick, but God, Savage is so good. He is good. And it was weird because it was like, as a turp, you just didn't, there were some games where Maryland's just so overmatched. Right. And the big fan that you don't necessarily see Savage's greatness, but he was fucking amazing at Maryland.
Starting point is 00:55:42 And he is really good for Green Bay. But to me, that was the same thing as Jonathan Abram, was he stood out on so many plays. And he was such a key part of that Mississippi State defense because of his versatility. and kind of knowing that was a need for them, I thought it might be able. 26 is where sweat was taken in that draft.
Starting point is 00:56:05 So they traded back to 26. But that's a really interesting thing. I don't think many people listening know that. That if this draft had been a Kyle Smith exclusive draft in 2019 at 15, they may have taken Darnell Savage, the safety. They may have taken Montessette. sweat. And sweat too, because that was sort of Snyder's extension of, hey, I'm sorry about this. Go ahead and make the trade back into the first round to get your guy. Get the guy you were going to take,
Starting point is 00:56:39 yeah. Right. But Savage was in contention for 15, and certainly if they had traded back in and Savage had been available, they'd have taken Savage. And he would have been right about Savage, at least so far. Cameron Danzler, is the other guy that was on that defense. What did he go? Second round. to Minnesota this year? I think so. Something like that. Anyway, yeah. So that game, you know, Raiders, Patriots, you like the Patriots.
Starting point is 00:57:07 I do too. I'm just going to make this one point on the Patriots. I think they're really good defensively. And I know Cam's off to a really good start. I still think he's going to throw up some stinkers of some games. I think there are going to be some games where you're going to be like, ugh, you know, he took four sacks, he turned it over two or three times, he looked very, you know how Cam gets back there and looks almost like it's a seven-on-seven drill,
Starting point is 00:57:36 and he doesn't think he's going to get hit, and he's incredibly relaxed. I mean, it's one of the cool things about watching Cam Newton is even when he's running, he looks relaxed and patient. Well, he really learned that, you know, that R&D mentality from Rivera. But I don't think he's going to have stinkers of games in New England. I think Josh McDaniels is catering that offense to him. That defense is going to keep him in every game. They find ways to make plays.
Starting point is 00:58:03 I think Cam's going to have a good year. It might not be a MVP type year, but I think he's really looked pretty good through two games, and I think he's going to get better with that offense. Move to the 425 weekend, Dallas at Seattle. This is a big game for the Cowboys. I actually think they might be in a decent spot here on late Sunday in Seattle.
Starting point is 00:58:26 I think they've got a shot against the Seahawks. And you may get the Cowboys here in the Smell Test coming up. You know what, Dallas is good offensively. They've got weapons everywhere. If they don't turn it over, they're going to be... Eddie Lamb and Cooper and Gallup and Ezekiel Elliott and Dalton Shultz is playing pretty well. And Dax, DAC, they just find ways to not win games. They should have got run by Atlanta, too.
Starting point is 00:58:52 That was amazing that they found a way to win that game. Amazing. But I think they have a really good shot against Seattle, too, just because of their explosiveness on offense. Right. I think they're better on offense than almost anybody. Packer St. Sunday night than Chiefs Ravens on Monday night. We can talk about the Chiefs Ravens game on Monday show.
Starting point is 00:59:10 Let's get to the smell test and the lock of the week. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. Bad start for the smell test this year. Two, nine, and two going into last night, I gave out the dolphins on the show, plus the three, and told you I thought the dolphins would win the game outright. So I'm three, nine and two on the year. One and four last week, some painful losses like the New England loss in particular.
Starting point is 00:59:39 And Tulane, I had Tulane, Cooley Lane six and a half. They're up 24 nothing at halftime. It actually should have been like 38 to nothing at halftime, and Navy comes back and wins the game outright. I think I've got some clarity on this week's board. That's a dangerous thing to say in this business. But I think there's some real stinker lines and some real big public plays. I talked to Aaron, who is working out in Vegas with Tim Murray for Vison. Aaron mentioned to me, he said they had some sports book guys on their shows this week,
Starting point is 01:00:12 and they said it was a bloodbath for the sports books out in Vegas the first two weeks of the season. And I can imagine that it was. because I'm usually on the side they're on. Let me get to it quickly here. The Texans are 0 and 2. The Steelers are 2 and 0, and the Steelers are very good defensively. You know, the Texans are considering signing Antonio Brown,
Starting point is 01:00:34 which would be crazy. They replaced the Andre Hopkins with Antonio Brown. They're getting four. The world loves Pittsburgh. I like the Texans plus the four. I think they're going to win a game at Pittsburgh this week. The Bears are the 2-0 team against Atlanta, the 0-2 team. And you'd think, oh, Sheehan's going to go with Atlanta because they're favored as a winless team.
Starting point is 01:00:56 No, the public loves the Falcons and nobody believes in Mitch Trubisky and the Bears. I'll take the Bears plus the three. I know what you're going to say when I give you this team again for the third straight week. No, don't do it, but I am going to do it one more time. The Lions plus six at Arizona. I think Detroit's decent. I think they ran into a buzzsaw in Aaron Rogers and Jones last week. The Cardinals are getting a lot of love right now, as they should.
Starting point is 01:01:25 The world's on them. Give me the Lions plus the six. Here's a team that nobody's playing this weekend. Brady's going to Denver. He's going to have some people back. They're only laying five and a half against the Broncos who will be without Drew Locke in this game. I'll take Denver plus the five and a half at home.
Starting point is 01:01:49 Nobody believes in the Eagles now. Most disappointing start them in Minnesota to the year. They're playing Joe Burrow on 11 days' rest. The Eagles are laying four and a half. The public likes the underdog in this game. I'll take the Eagles and lay the four and a half. The Vikings are the biggest anti-public play of the day Sunday. They're getting two and a half at home against two and O'S.
Starting point is 01:02:13 Tennessee. I'll take Minnesota plus the two and a half. You want to buy that half point and get it to three. And then late in the afternoon, I like the Cowboys plus five. And I love Seattle as a team, but people are all over. The public really believes Russell Wilson in Seattle that it's their kind of a year. And the Cowboys are lucky to be one and one. I'll take Dallas plus five and a half in that one. And then the Sunday night game, the Saints are three-point favorites over Aaron Rogers. and the hot start they've gotten off to. I'll take the Saints and lay the three. There's the smell test.
Starting point is 01:02:48 Texans, Bears, lions, Broncos, Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys, and Saints. Cooley, what's your lock of the week? That's a big week. I know. I like a lot of games this week. I feel like you are really trying to get back. No, not at all. Not at all.
Starting point is 01:03:08 Not a lot of game. If I were really trying to get back, I would have given out five college games. also. I passed on Saturday. I just don't know what to make a college football right now. I'm going to have to, I don't think Vegas, there may be huge opportunities in college football with people for people who have real information right now. I just don't have the real information right now. And I'm not going to trust Vegas or the public or distrust either one of them right now until they've played some games. You've got too many teams that are entering this game after having all these infections in COVID testing.
Starting point is 01:03:42 I don't know what to make a college football right now, so I'm staying off college football this week. What's your lock of the week? I think I kind of insinuated what my lock of the week would be. Yeah, you did. I think the Patriots minus five at home, if I was John Gruden and the Raiders,
Starting point is 01:04:01 I would be bitching about this schedule little snafu as well. They played in New Orleans on Monday night. Yeah, right. And now they've got to come east. Yes. And then you've got to go back to the East Coast. Yeah, you're right. Sunday. Yeah, they typically try to not have that happen. You're right.
Starting point is 01:04:21 They typically try to not have that happen, especially when you play a Monday night game. So if you think about, right now you think about Las Vegas, which I was thinking about Oakland, but it's really no difference in flight. You think about Las Vegas. They got home five in the morning on Tuesday. had to get into work on Wednesday and probably most teams would take off on Friday. That's a really short week against a always prepared football team and the Patriots who I think are really good. Like I think offensively they're better than people giving credit for. I like what McDaniels is doing with Cam.
Starting point is 01:04:58 Let's not discount that they're the last year and into this year. They're a defense that can turn people over. They have to pick six against Russell Wilson early in the ball game. I think the defense is better. Just Russell Wilson's incredible right now. So I think to me, Derek Carr turns it over two or three times. I think he looks like the D Derek Carr that we talked about, which is why having a hard time saying I love him.
Starting point is 01:05:19 And I think the Patriots win this one going away. I like everything about the logic of that pick. Starting with the Monday night, you know, always the team that plays Monday night is at a slight disadvantage. And it was a huge emotional win. Yeah, it was. It was huge. You know, the toughest, if I were the Texans, I would have said when I got, saw the schedule. Seriously, the Chiefs, the Ravens, and the Steelers with Ben Back to start the year?
Starting point is 01:05:48 I mean, that's unbelievable. The two best teams in football in week one and week two, and then the Steelers with Ben back in week three. Right. They're like, you couldn't have mixed Jacksonville in there for a week? Yeah, couldn't we have just gotten Jacksonville, maybe back-to-back week since we're in this, you know, actually, what am I talking about? No, they are in the same division, of course. Could we just get Jacksonville back to back two weeks in a row?
Starting point is 01:06:11 We'll take them right after the Chiefs and the Ravens. Anyway, you've got to run. I want everybody to know that the smell test and the lock of the week this particular week was brought to you by MyBooky. MyBooky.ag is the place to wager. They offer every kind of way to bet. First of all, they got a sports book, a casino, a horse track book as well. you can do whatever you want to do at MyBooky.
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Starting point is 01:07:40 and I know everybody's focused on games. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this. But I mentioned before the season started two weeks ago, you've got so many things going on that we're going to get some big stories here in season. Beth Wilkinson's investigation, Snyder's lawsuits and discovery motions that are going on. You've got an arbitrator that's looking at why the three minority owners were tossed off the team's board, appointed by the NFL. Potentially, you've got another Washington Post story at some point coming out on sexual harassment. So you've got a lot of stuff going on in addition to football.
Starting point is 01:08:22 And some of you would say, and it's fair, does this really impact Ron Rivera and Ryan Carrigan and Chase Young and Dwayne Haskins? On a day-to-day basis, as they are preparing for football games and then playing in football games, no, it probably doesn't. However, the ownership situation of this franchise is very important to this franchise moving forward. I think we all understand that if any of this stuff leads to an ownership change, that's big news. And this is something that a lot of us have always wondered, well, how is it? he ever going to be out of here? He's not going to sell the team. He's not, is he going to do
Starting point is 01:09:07 something stupid enough to get, you know, to be forced to sell the team like, you know, Jerry Richardson in, in Carolina. And we've got so much of this stuff bubbling up. So let me try to net out for you, the New York Times story from very early this morning. The New York Times story revealed that this dispute between the three minority owners, Dwight Schar, Fred Smith, and Bob, Rothman. And the majority owner, Dan Snyder, is all about money. Surprise, surprise. But we thought that it could be a number of things. And they write the following. In the spring, with the future of the NFL season very much in doubt because of the pandemic, Snyder deferred paying annual dividends to the three shareholders who collectively hold 40% of the franchise. So they're saying that Snyder
Starting point is 01:10:02 refused to pay dividends, which I'm assuming was a consistent scheduled thing that he paid out to the other shareholders in the company, including the three significant minority shareholders, Sharr, Rothman, and Fred Smith. The decision the Times writes to withhold the distribution, which was due on April 30th, and which the partner's claim was made without consulting them, triggered a series of accusations, that include financial mismanagement of the team and efforts to smear Snyder. The fight between Snyder and the shareholders now has landed in the league's lap, and they've appointed an arbitrator to try to sort out the dispute. Now, we did know about the arbitrator.
Starting point is 01:10:53 We knew from an earlier story that an arbitrator had been named by the league to figure out this mess between Dan and the. the three minority shareholders. The Times story continues. The behind the scenes jockeying hovers over the turmoil that is engulfed the team. Now, they go into listing all of the things, the sexual harassment claims by the 42 women, the Ron Rivera having cancer, the loss of the name, Snyder being involved in, you know, suing people for this smear campaign, and discovery motions and courts in California and Virginia, etc., etc. And they then continue by saying that while all of that's going on,
Starting point is 01:11:37 for much of the spring and summer, the fight with the limited partners was taking place behind closed doors. In May, the Times writes, less than two weeks after the partners were supposed to have received their dividends, the chief financial officer for Shar Holdings wrote to the Washington football team's legal counsel and asked why Snyder had decided not to pay the distribution and not tell the partners in advance. Sharr's chief financial officer wrote, it's quite disappointing that there's been such a lack of communication. He then requested documents regarding the team's financial performance, including financial statements for the past two years. They want details on
Starting point is 01:12:24 wages earned by the team employees, budget projections for this year, and information on all cost-cutting measures since 2018 to determine whether the team was managing its money efficiently. It's unclear how much money the three limited partners were owed and why Snyder delayed the payment or whether or not he notified them in advance. It's also unclear whether Snyder undertook some of or all of the cost-cutting measures that Char asked of him. In the meantime, these three minority shareholders contracted with John Moog, he's a sports banker, to help them unload their shares. Now, a couple of things are getting revealed as I'm reading through this to all of you,
Starting point is 01:13:19 and I read it earlier this morning. And that is he didn't pay the dividend checks. they want all of this financial information, and they had recommended significant cost-cutting measures back in 2018. And they didn't know if he was actually following them or not. Well, why would you be doing that? Well, you'd do that because the team economically may have been in a little bit of trouble, or certainly in a different position than the position they used to be in. That makes sense.
Starting point is 01:13:49 Nobody's coming to the games. Nobody's paying for parking. nobody's paying for concessions nobody's paying for apparel you've got the loss of big time sponsorship money big time sweetholder money and so the top line revenue number and i've talked about this before it's got to be much lower you know after last season or currently uh whatever the run rate is for 2020 than it was five years ago and this may have been a cause of concern for everybody um there's one more part of this story that I want to read. And it goes like this. In early June, David Koch, who's a lawyer representing the three limited partners, okay, Sharr, Fred Smith, and Bob Rothman. By the way, it's revealed
Starting point is 01:14:35 in this story also, and I think we've talked about this before, that Fred Smith wanted to sell his shares over a year ago, that none of what's happened here in the last, you know, five, six months. Fred Smith wanted out a year ago. Why? I don't know. I can't answer that question. And it's answered in this story. But anyway, in early June, David Koch, a lawyer representing three limited partners, the three limited shareholders, sent a letter to Norman Shireight, who's the lawyer representing Dan Snyder. To help his clients sell their shares, Koch asked for teams' financial records, including all of the team's transactions with any insiders or entities controlled by the insiders. I have no idea what that means. I don't know what it means, but I have a feeling it's
Starting point is 01:15:24 significant. They're asking for all of the financial records, including the team's transactions with any insiders or entities controlled by insiders. If somebody that looks at these things and these requests and or, you know, legal requests knows what that means. Tweet me at Kevin Schen. in D.C. because that's intriguing to me. All of the financial stuff is intriguing to me because I have a feeling they're in a bit of trouble. If Snyder wanted to avoid an expensive and lengthy due diligence process and detailed review of the team's books, the attorney David Koch says Snyder should think about buying out the three partners at fair value. Well, let me just, I can answer that one. Snyder doesn't have to buy out anybody. He's the majority shareholder. In voting,
Starting point is 01:16:17 and in equity ownership. He doesn't have to buy them out. They have no say-so in anything. I wonder whether or not they have the right, and I would think that they may, to all of this financial information as minority shareholders. It's not a publicly trade company. He doesn't have to disclose any of this publicly.
Starting point is 01:16:37 I don't know what the answer to that is. I would assume that is a significant minority shareholder who invested millions and millions and millions of dollars to get, that equity position, that part of that deal is access to the company's financial situation and financial records. But I don't know that for sure. But anyway, the net of this really is that you've got an arbitrator trying to figure out why these three guys were tossed off the board, which by the way really pissed them off. And Snyder was pissed off that he started to get letters
Starting point is 01:17:15 from them after he didn't pay out dividends. I wonder what his personal financial situation is. And I'm not talking about relative to ours, okay? I'm talking about true liquidity. I don't, he may not be in a great position. And I wonder whether or not that could lead him to sell. Now, in this story, it says that Snyder has no interest in selling his shares and wants to leave the team to his children. That's part of this story. Anyway, long story short, there is a real battle going on. And that smear campaign that Snyder sued over, it sounds, that's a whole other part of this, because Shar could be in massive trouble if he was funding this smear campaign against Snyder. It's going to be interesting to find out what Beth Wilkinson finds in the
Starting point is 01:18:12 sexual harassment investigation. It's going to be interesting to see what this arbitrator produces. If we even hear what the results are, I think the New York Times will figure it out and they'll be all over it. But crazy stuff. So anyway, money. He didn't pay out dividends and that started a snowball growing, going downhill on the relationship between the three minority shareholders and the majority shareholder, Dan Snyder. I will get to my Washington Cleveland pick after I tell you about Roman. Talking about erectile dysfunction isn't easy. Usually we just brush it off, blame ourselves, saying things like,
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Starting point is 01:20:06 All right. My final score prediction, and I'll give a footnote. this because I think it's the only way that this game stays competitive. And I have a feeling it will be. I think it's going to be right around the number, the Cleveland going off at minus 7. I agree with Cooley, I would not play the over in this game. I wouldn't play the total period in this game, but I could see a fast-moving kind of game with fewer possessions and fewer points. Anyway, I'm going Cleveland 20, Washington 13. I think that the defense, will step up and slow Cleveland's rush attack down.
Starting point is 01:20:47 I think they will get Cleveland off the field more than Cleveland's been off the field, certainly more than they were against Cincinnati in the game against the Bengals last Thursday night. I just don't know offensively if they're going to have enough to score. And if they can get some short fields like they did against Philadelphia, which they took advantage of it, and they scored 27 points, basically in a half. for all intents and purposes. They're going to need turnovers to have a chance. This is one of those games where you're going to need short fields and easy scoring
Starting point is 01:21:22 opportunities to legitimately get a chance, I think, to win this game. Anyway, that's what I'm thinking. You know, Cleveland punted one time in their game against Cincinnati. All right, they went touchdown, touchdown, punt, touchdown in the first half. and then they missed on a fourth down play deep in Cincinnati territory on their first drive and then went touchdown pick. He threw a pick, touchdown end of game. So they didn't punt much in that game. You're going to have to get some punts. You're going to have to get some field position out of the punts, and you're going to have to get,
Starting point is 01:22:00 like you did in the Philadelphia game, a couple of short field opportunities set up by your defense. I know that's truly cliche in talking about the NFL, but, But it's also so true. And always, you know, one of those things you look at, if you didn't know the score, you would look immediately at turnover margin and you would look at things like third down efficiency on defense and on offense. 20 to 13. It's an opportunity, too, and I would love to see him win the game to get to two and one,
Starting point is 01:22:34 because then you get that situation where you got a little bit of leeway at two and one with the Ravens and the Rams coming up. Even if you drop two of those to go to two and three before a stretch that includes the Giants twice in three weeks. Actually, it's in four weeks because they've got the buy week mixed in there as well on November 1st. This is like one of those games could be pivotal, right? If they somehow can come out of it two and one and Dallas, say, loses at Seattle,
Starting point is 01:23:05 now all of a sudden you're in first place through three games, long way to go, But you've got the Ravens and the Rams coming up, man. I mean, those are going to be very difficult games to even, you know, hang in there remotely. And I just hate looking at a season truly as an R&D season, as a give-up season. I think this defense can continue to get better, can put this team into position to win seven, eight games. And if they're sitting there somehow at five and five after ten, you know, going to Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, however many games that would be at that point, maybe more than that, probably more like 11 games, I think. You know, if they're 5 and 6, you're playing a game that might mean something on Thanksgiving Day.
Starting point is 01:23:48 It's all I'm looking for this year. Get me to Thanksgiving Day with some hope. And by the way, with some answers on guys like number 7, Dwayne Haskins. All right, thanks for listening to the show. Appreciate all of the suggestions on things like sound. Yes, clean feed, those of you that have sent me, the clean feed information. I've gotten that information previously. We're looking into that.
Starting point is 01:24:14 We're going to figure this thing out, I promise you. And Cooley will have two more film breakdowns. But Cooley and I will be back on Monday with a total recap of not only the Washington-Cleveland game, but the entire NFL card. Have a great weekend, everybody.

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