The Kevin Sheehan Show - Washington's Stretch Run Begins

Episode Date: December 14, 2024

Kevin opened with a preview of Washington's game Sunday in New Orleans against the Saints. His keys to a win over the Saints and a prediction included.  He also talked about the similarities between Dan Quinn's and Joe Gibbs' end-of-season resumes. Jay Gruden jumped on to talk about the 49ers-Rams game last night and if Jay ever had a player walk off the field on him. Jay's Commanders-Saints preview and pick along with his "NFL Lock of the Week" as well. Kevin finished up the show with six "Smell Test" picks including a play on Army-Navy tomorrow.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. Do you guys remember how good Joe Gibbs teams were at the end of seasons? Of course you do. Well, guess what?

Dan Quinn's teams in Atlanta were even better. I'll explain shortly. The show's presenting sponsor, as always, is Window Nation. If you've been thinking about new windows, all I ask is that you give Windonation a chance to come out and give you a free estimate. Call them at 86690 Nation or head to Windonation.com. Mention my name. They'll take good care of you. Jay Gruden's on the show as he is every Friday.

He'll join me in the next segment, the smell test to finish up the show at the end. So are you ready for down the stretch meaningful football for our team? I am. It starts Sunday against New Orleans. I'll have my keys to a win over the Saints and the prediction in this opening segment. But I was thinking about this earlier today. It is not felt this way in a long time, you know, where we've been expecting this. You know, we've been expecting meaningful December, January football pretty much since late September, early October. And the teams around here over the last 25 years, you know, the Snyder era on, that either made the playoffs or got close to making the playoffs, it was unexpected. You know, they caught fire at the end of the year.

That's different from what we've had this season. There are two exceptions to that. 99. They were pretty good and looked like a potential playoff team for much of the year. And then, and they made the playoffs. 2016, they didn't make the playoffs. But it kind of felt like a, playoff team for much of that season. But most of the teams that made it or sniffed it just did it with a late season run. You know, 2005, they were five and six heading into the month of December, had to win five in a row to make the postseason and did. 2007, two years later, five and seven in early December, had to win four in a row to make it following obviously the death of Sean Taylor, and they did.

2012, they were three and six. They had to win seven straight to make it. 2015, they were five and seven. Late in the season, had to win their final four to make it. Actually, they had to win three in a row. The final game ended up being meaningless, but it was a late season run, and they did win four in a row. 2020, I mean, why even count that?

They were two and seven at one point and finished seven and nine and won the division. In 2022, you know, even though they got it to seven and five, they started the season one and four. They never really looked like a good team that was a capable team, even though they were kind of a tough, hard-nosed, gritty team. But they lost three of their final four. This year, it's a whole new thing. Seven and two, you know, over their first nine games, eight and five right now. You can say, and it's true, they haven't beaten a team. with a winning record, and that may concern some of you. But out of their 13 games played so far,

keep in mind, they've only played four games against teams with winning records, just four. You know, Baltimore, Philly, Pittsburgh, and Tampa in the opener. And they had chances, certainly in three of those four games. But they've had a good record, and they've been firmly in decent playoff position all season long. It feels. It feels different because they've been relevant since September. That's new around here. It also feels different because they've got a legit quarterback in a league that pretty much demands that you have a legit quarterback.

So here we are, you know, meaningful football games in December and hopefully into mid-January. So how confident are we in the team being prepared for this, you know, test time of the season. Well, that brings me back to what I just mentioned at the top of the show. Joe Gibbs, Dan Quinn, you know, and who's better in the late season moments? Dan Quinn has a really good track record this time of year. Remember when Ron Rivera got hired, we kind of looked it up, and Ron Rivera's teams in

Carolina did well late season. And, you know, here, with the exception of 2021 and 20, 21 and 20, Well, 2021, the COVID thing took over, but 2020, they played well at the end of the year. 2022, they were, you know, had a losing record and then it turned it in, one and four turned it turned it into seven and five. Whatever. Let me forget Ron Rivera, if I can completely. Although, real quickly, did you see Amy Trask, which she tweeted out,

former CEO of the Raiders, tweeted out yesterday that teams looking for coaches in the offseason could do a lot worse than consider. considering Ron Rivera, and she said something to the effect of Rivera had more responsibilities and really couldn't coach when he was in Washington. That's not completely untrue. I don't think Ron Rivera is going to get another shot. I personally don't. But anyway, back to Gibbs versus Quinn at the end of the year. So we know what Gibbs was in 16 seasons as the head coach of the Redskins. first run 81 through 92, second run 2004 through 2007. Gibbs went 47 and 17 over the final four games of the seasons he coached in.

47 and 17, 73.4% of the games he won. I mean, are you kidding me? They were always so good at the end of seasons. By the way, six times in his season. 16 seasons as a head coach in Washington, they went four and oh in their final four games of seasons. So how about Dan Quinn? He's only had one head coaching opportunity before here.

He had five full seasons in Atlanta. Remember, he got fired early in the COVID 2020 season. But from 2015 through 2019, the seasons in which he coached, of final four games in December, January. His teams, 16 and 4 over the final four games. 80% winning percentage. Pretty good. I've always felt that teams that consistently play well at the end of seasons do so in part because of coaching. I think it's a testament when they do it over and over again to coaching staffs figuring out things. You know, teams change so much personnel-wise year-to-year. They change personality-wise sometimes year-to-year. And it takes a while to figure out what you have.

And a lot of coaching staffs never figure it out. Sometimes that's because they don't have enough talent to figure things out or they don't have the quarterback to figure it out. Quinn's teams in Atlanta, they did have Matt Ryan consistently, which helped. But I think he's, smart, and I think he surrounds himself with smart. It's what Gibbs did. Gibbs always had a great staff. We've been talking about Quinn's staff from the moment he started hiring some of these guys, and he had a good staff in Atlanta when he was there. Now, he had some changing pieces at offensive coordinator, but I think, you know, Dan Quinn's record, five-year record of 16, and four down the stretch, I think it probably had a lot to do with him and his staff,

just like it did with Gibbs and his staff. How does three and one sound down the stretch? I'd sign up for that right now, 11 and 6, first 11 win season since 91. They're going to be favored in three of the final four. By the way, next week's line against Philadelphia is already out. My bookie has Philly as a three-point favorite. So as of now, Philly plays Pittsburgh, Washington against New Orleans, the Eagles will come to Landover next Sunday as three-point favorites. Now, is a three-and-one finish necessary to make the playoffs?

I know a lot of you believe it might be. I read all of your tweets after the Rams won again last night. It is getting crowded. It is in the NFC for the last few wildcard spots. The situation really is, and I'll go with a little playoff scenario talk right now. It'll be four teams for two wild card spots in the NFC. That's really the simplest way to describe it from our perspective, from Washington's perspective. And I say that because of the four divisions in the NFC, the NFC East is the one that's pretty much been decided.

Philadelphia has got a three-game lead with four to go, and they're playing better than anybody in the league. Yes, we're still in it mathematically, but really from our perspective, the way to view the playoff situation is that Washington is one of four teams battling for two wild card spots in the NFC. The sixth seed and the seventh seed. The fifth seed will be the NFC North runner-up. That's a given at this point. So either Detroit or Minnesota, whichever team doesn't win the division. Washington's in a battle with three other teams for two spots. Those three teams are Green Bay, the third place team in the NFC North,

the second place team in the NFC South, either Tampa Bay or Atlanta, and the second place team in the NFC West, either the Rams or the Seahawks. All right? Four teams for two spots. Washington, Green Bay, either Tampa or Atlanta, and either Seattle or the Rams. Now, I could include Arizona as part of this conversation. The reason I'm not, they already have seven losses, and they lose tiebreakers to virtually everybody.

They lost to Washington head-to-head. They lost to Green Bay head-to-head. They got swept by Seattle. So I'm kind of counting Arizona out for now. They're mathematically alive, but they'd have to run the table. and really get some help to get in. So simplest way to view this, four teams, Washington, Green Bay, the runner up in the NFC South, the runner up in the NFC West for two spots.

And the reason I still feel really good about Washington is they own the tiebreaker advantage over the majority of those teams. They beat Green Bay, Seattle, and the Rams in tiebreakers at 10 wins or at a 11 wins because of conference record. The only team at this point, they lose a tiebreaker with Tampa Bay because they lost to the bucks in the opener. Atlanta is a TBD situation because they play the Falcons in two weeks. I know some of you are worried after last night with the Rams beating the 49ers, that both

the Rams and Seahawks could finish in a first place tie at 11 and 6. The Rams have three games left. They have a shot to get to 11 wins. They have Seattle at home in the season finale. So one of those two teams is going to lose that game. If it's Seattle, just understand this. Seattle also plays Green Bay this Sunday night in Minnesota next week. Seattle is an underdog, most likely, in three of their final four games.

Washington is a favorite in three of them. their final four games most likely. Washington's got a much better chance to win 11 games than Seattle does. Maybe not a better shot than the Rams, but a better shot than Seattle. I like Seattle, too, as a team, but I think 10 is still a really good bet to snag a playoff berth, to snag one of those two spots. If they get to 11, they've got a really good chance to capture the sixth seed. All right, playoff talk over. Let's get to keys to beating New Orleans on Sunday in a prediction, but real quickly, some news at the park today. Marshawn Latimore is back and he'll start Sunday against his former team. So our first chance to see Marshawn Latimore, he's going to start.

That means Benjamin St. Juice. That means Benjamin St. Juice will take a seat. San Ristill on one side, Latimore on the other, Noah I, inside. Those are your top three corners, pretty much said today by Dan Quinn. The team also signed a kicker to the practice squad earlier today. Greg Joseph, formerly the kicker in Minnesota before a quick few games in New York this year with the Giants, where he was not very good. He was a very inconsistent kicker in Minnesota as well. He's got a big leg, but he was signed as in. insurance in case Zane Gonzalez can't go, although Gonzalez was a full go in practice today. Guess who wasn't a full go in practice today?

Duran Payne, with a reported back injury, did not practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday. Alvin Camara was back at practice for the Saints. After missing two days with illness, he is being called. right now a full go for Sunday's game. I was kind of hoping that maybe Cameras out, but he is a full go. Derek Carr listed is doubtful for New Orleans, which means Jake Hainer will likely get the start for the Saints. By the way, the other players that are questionable, Zane Gonzalez, even though he was a

full go, is still listed as questionable. And Jameson Crowder is, you know, available to be pulled off injured reserve. They started that 21-day thing last week. He's listed as questionable, but he was a full go all week long in practice. I wonder if he'll be activated, and then they'll save K.J. Osborne, perhaps for next week. But he could be activated with Noah Brown, obviously, out. One other quick thing before I get to my keys, John Kime wrote a story today that John Allen may not be done this year. Remember, he tore his peck, was thought to be lost for the season, but apparently there's a chance that John Allen could return this year. They have not started the 21 day off IR yet. They'll have to do that. Maybe it's not for the regular season. Maybe it's

for a playoff game. You know what? I would take John Allen back if he's healthy. I'd really like to have a Duran Payne as well. All right. Washington beats New Orleans on Sunday if. A few things. I want to start with this. They've got to stop the run. This is not real hard on Sunday. Jake Hainer's likely the starting quarterback.

They have Valdez Scantling, but that's it, really, in terms of receivers. Alvin Camara can be a receiver, of course, out of the backfield and lining up as a receiver. But you just have to make New Orleans one-dimensional, and make Jake Hainer beat you. Number one on Washington wins if. Stop the run.

Load the box with Latimore in the game. You can play perhaps more single high. We'll see. We'll see what he looks like in his debut. You got him in part so that you could, against a team like this, load up against the one player that could really impact the game for them offensively.

And that's Alvin Camara. load up, stop the run, make them one-dimensional, and see if Jake Hainer can beat you. I'll take my chances there. Number two on the list of Washington wins if. They've got to limit explosive plays on Sunday. New Orleans, believe it or not, now this has been with Derek Carr, but they've actually been capable of making big plays. In their last four games, they have a 60-7.

yard pass reception, 31, 34, 30, 32 yards, 71 yards, 28 yards, 21 yards, 21 yards, 21 yards, 22 yards, 20 yards. That's 1, 2, 3, 45, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 13 explosives in the past game. Again, with Derek Carr, not Jay Caner. Also, with guys like Tassam Hill and Chris Olavi, although he's been out for a while now. And Rashid Shaheed's been out for a while. They also have some big runs. They've got a 75-yard run.

They've got an 18-yard run, a 16-yard run. Limit the explosives because New Orleans has had those in their last four games in which they've won three of their games. Red zone defense, huge. If New Orleans gets there, keep them from getting there. But if they get their force field goals, the guy Blake Group missed two in his last game against the judge. Giants. Outdoors, obviously, some colder weather. But red zone defense is huge because New Orleans is actually a decent red zone offensive team. They have been this year, like Washington's been. Offensively, run the football. You can run it against New Orleans and you can keep it against

New Orleans. This was the key against Tennessee. I want to see them run the ball with all 11, including Jaden with Brian Robinson Jr. And I want to to see quick game. I want to see them attack New Orleans the way they attacked Tennessee. Tennessee was a better defensive team. You know, Tennessee proved it last week, albeit against Jacksonville, understood, but Washington is not facing Tennessee or Pittsburgh or Philly Sunday. Don't do what you did against Dallas. No reason to get into third and longs all day. Treat it like it's Tennessee. Down distance matters. Short, quick game. screens, run the football, be in third and three or shorter as much as you were against Tennessee,

12 times it happened against Tennessee. So stop the run, limit explosives, red zone defense, and run the football and use quick game offensively to create good down and distance. This is not what I would categorize like I did against Dallas, a should win game because New Orleans, has been a feisty group in three out of the last four games. But without Derek Carr, most likely, I mean, if Derek Carr doesn't play in as Jake Hainer, I like Hainer coming out of Fresno State. You let Alvin Camara start running the football. They could be dangerous.

They could possess the ball against our defense. It is going to be nice to see an indoor game for Washington for the first time this year, see our team speed with the quarterback, with Terry, with, Brian Robinson, Jr. with Diami Brown. Kind of strange in the NFL these days to have your first indoor game in your last four games. They'll play Dallas, of course, as well. That's pretty much indoors. I think it could be a better day for the kicker, whomever the kicker is, and I think it'll be a big day offensively. I'm going 2417 Washington. The only reason I say that, and I don't have the Saints and the Smelt,

but Washington is a big play, a big public play this weekend. I don't see how Washington loses this game. I don't feel the same way I did against Dallas. Dallas was a bad team when they played them, but you can come up with, you know, ways in which they could blow this game. It's on the road. The Superdome's pretty tough. You know, the Saints still view themselves as a mathematically alive team because they are. They've won three out of their last four. And remember, two weeks ago, were up 6-0-0 on the Rams at halftime. But I don't know, man, this feels like 9 and 5 on Sunday afternoon. My final score prediction again, 24 to 17. It's probably a late backdoor cover for New Orleans. Washington in control most of the day and New Orleans scores late and they try to kick an on-side kick in Washington recovers and they knee out the game.

How about that? I see, you know, a game in which they rush. for a lot of yards again. And because of that, maybe not 28 plus, maybe a shorter game, a lower possession game. We'll see. We'll see what happens. I'll be back here Sunday,

even though, man, those two four, 25 games, those are great games. But I will be in here for a quick recap following the game on Sunday. All right, Jay Gruden will join me next after these words from a few. of our sponsors. Hey, everybody, with the holidays

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You'll save big on your energy bills and save big on the purchase. 86690 Nation, window nation.com. All right now as he does every Friday during football season, the former head coach of the Washington Redskins, Jay Gruden. I want to start with what happened last night. 49ers linebacker Devondre Campbell refused to go into the game when the starter, Drey Greenlaw, got hurt. Greenlaw was back from injury for those that don't know the story.

He was in the starting lineup. Campbell had been starting but was essentially relegated to backup last night. Greenlaw gets hurt. Campbell refused to go into the game and then left the field. So I will ask a former NFL head coach, how should this situation get handled? This is a unique situation. for a coach, you know, it's amazing that Greenlaw didn't know going to the game, getting dressed that he was not the starter.

Campbell, Campbell, yeah. Yeah, yeah, if I meant it. I mean, surely they knew going into the game that Greenwald was going to start, and Campbell's going to be the backup. So I don't know why Campbell got dressed in the first place if he didn't want to play. So it's a weird deal. So I don't know how I would approach that, really. You know, it's something that is a very selfish move, obviously,

that you can't have on your football team. You know, I had a couple instances here, and there were guys that don't want to go in and do certain things, but never just taking themselves out of the game and leave. I mean, people are saying this morning, and I'm curious if you agree, that he should be released immediately. Yeah, I mean, I agree with that, too,

unless there's a serious come-to-Jesus meeting where he apologizes in front of his team, and the team accepts it. But, yeah, I mean, this is something that can't take place ever. I mean, you're dressing on a football team. You're part of the team. Whether you play 20 snaps or 50 snaps, you've got to be ready when your number is called. That's just what teammates do.

So, yeah, when you let the teammates down in the locker room, that's a problem. And very seldom do players forgive something of that magnitude? You said that was my follow-up question. I was going to ask you if any player ever did that to you. You said no, but you had other instances. where players wouldn't do certain things. I mean, I know you've talked about Deshawn Jackson not really wanting to block and Pierre not wanting to line up in certain spots,

but are those the examples or do you have more? Yeah, mainly is Pierre. Pierre was very stubborn. You know, when you have Deshaun Jackson, and if you run on a regular set with two tight ends or one tight end and two receivers and a fullback, and you want to run the ball and you want to run to Deshawn side, and the safety comes down.

Somebody's got a block of safety, and it wasn't going to be to Sean, so we had to flip the formation and put Pierre over there. Pierre didn't want to play flanker. He wanted to be ex. He wanted to be on the ball. So whenever we did that, he would not want to go into the game

or not want to be part of that. So it was a lot of juggling we had to do. That's why we had our guy, Ryan Grant, my favorite player, and he would do whatever the hell we asked him to do. And people got on me for liking him so much. Well, I liked him because he was the ultimate team guy. He'll dig out safety. He'll do all the dirty work.

when other guys didn't want to. But yeah, you know, some of the receivers are just very stubborn and stuck in their way. You know, you just try to cater to their strengths, and that's kind of what we did. So, I mean, your management style is interesting because what you just described isn't the way everybody would handle it. It's the way some coaches handle it, and some coaches would say, no, you either do this or you're not going to play. So that just wasn't your style. Did it ever get to the point with Pierre where you felt like? you had to handle it in a different way

because you didn't want to take him off the field. Yeah, no, I left him on the field. I took Sean off the field. Yeah, oh, you took the show. Yeah, Sean was a good, obviously a great player, but in certain situations, he was a very average to below average player. Like if he wanted to run the ball, you know, he was actually probably one of the worst receivers in pro football, other than draw on cover two and a safety over the top,

and he didn't have to block the safety. He was just a very few times when he was in the game and they didn't cloud him over the top. run on the ball, it was not good. I just had to run the other way away from the safety, which is no big good. And we Jerry Riggs some formational stuff that got Pierre to the point of attack a lot. I mean, you know, we outsmarted Pierre sometimes. But, you know, it was just some of the known ones where we had actually flipped the

formation. Like instead of saying Greenright, we had say Greenright X, which put the X as he was, he didn't like that. So we just Jerry Riggs from formations and, you know, fool them. I mean, Pierre was such a really good player in a tough. player. And I think for some fans, it's like, they're listening to this and they're like, you do whatever it takes to win games, right? But part of it is to make sure. I love Pierre. It's the oddest thing ever, because Pierre was the hardest working player on the practice field every day.

He never took a playoff. And he busted his ass day in and day out. I love the guy. Strong hands, physical. He just had a mental block. He did not want to flip the formation. He didn't. not want to be a flanker. He wanted to be an X on the ball. And that's fine. So we just carry Rick's the formation, you know, got him off the ball somehow and motioned him a while a while. But, yeah, I mean, I have nothing against Pierre. I just, we just had to cater to what he wanted a little. Sometimes you got to give a little of the coach. Sure. And he can't be a stubborn, stubborn guy. I mean, he was too valuable to the football team. So, you know, we handled it the way we handled it. And I kill you, you're our receiver,

coach. He did a great job of, you know, we put something in the game plan. He's like, I don't think he'll, you know, so we just, okay, we'll put Pierre, we'll, we'll, you know, we'll call this formation or this personnel grouping, something with Tulane in it, because that's where Ryan Grant went at the college. It was no big deal. We fixed it. I'm reminded of something, but I don't remember the specifics, but you told me this story once. I want to say it was against the Eagles where Pierre didn't run a route into the end zone that was called because he was upset about the call or something.

What am I remembering? That was the last game of the year where we had to be. the win to get the playoffs. That's what Kirk took the knee. No, took the knee at the end of the half. Oh, yeah. Tell that story. Right. Okay, yeah, this is nuts. So Pierre hated back shoulder fades, hated him. He wanted the ball. If I called a go ball, he would not adjust to the back shoulder. He hated him. I don't know why. He thought a go ball should be 42 yards outside his up shoulder or whatever. So earlier in the quarter, he called a go ball to Pierre, and Kirk tried a back shoulder.

I mean, it was 20 yards underthrown incomplete. Pierre was pissed. he was pissed. So at the end of the half, we got like six or seven seconds left. We're at the plus ten, and I had time to throw a back shoulder fade, incomplete or complete. I don't give it down. We're just going to run five more seconds off and then kick the field goal. I didn't want to kick the field goal on second down and then have to kick off. So, you know, I saw the Seattle do that with six seconds ago at the eight-yard line in a playoff game. They threw a back-shoulder fade for touchdown. As well, if they play cover two, just, Kirk just just bowing out of the end zone and we'll kick a field goal. Well, we call the back shoulder

fade and Pierre lined up four yards from the tackle. I'm not running it. And he just stood there. And then Deshaun was like, he was given the kick-to-field goal signal. We didn't have any timeouts up, so Kirk kind of panicked and took a knee. It was a damned thing ever. I've never seen a receiver turned down an opportunity to catch a touchdown pass. That's the only time, and probably be the only time ever. But he just, like I said, he has a couple things in his mind where he's very stubborn. He's a hell of a player, but he was stubborn on that play. And I felt bad for Kirk, and Kirk didn't know what to do because, you know, He shouldn't just throw it in the ground.

But that might have been a grounding call and 10-second runoff. Who knows? But, yeah, that was a nightmare. That was a tough lie. I was a tough life. I learned my five-year salary, seven-year salary in that half-time. People were going berserk. Of course.

We had to win in a game. That was the game. Yeah, that was the game to get into the, to clinch the division and to get into the playoffs. You guys, you rolled Philadelphia. I mean, it was a massive night offensively, but we'll never forget. The description is, oh, my God, Kirk just completely, you know, went brain dead and panicked and took a knee thinking he had a time out. And look, you can't take Kirk completely off the hook for that. He should have just winged it through, you know, and maybe he would have been called for grounding, but you can't take a knee there.

No, yeah, I understand that. He didn't know what to do. It was a total, yeah, it was something that we did not work on. I promise you as a staff. So it's kind of a, I just remember. after the game, sitting on the plane with Sean McVeigh. We're sitting next to each other. And everybody was, like, ecstatic and celebrate me and him.

We're looking at each other like, what in the hell just happened at halftime? So, yeah, it was a bittersweet victory, man. We're happy to tell we want it and quench the playoff. But it was a crazy halftime. But he could write a book on just that half time. Oh, my God. Oh, at half time. So what happened at halftime?

Well, I have quite a little temper on me sometimes, but I went berserk. on pier on pierre both pier and de shawne yeah and trent william was going crazy and yeah it was it was kind of crazy everybody got to calm down we got we got our shit together and got after him in the second half so it was good

sometimes you got to air out your frustrations and get some things off your chest you can't just sit back and take it and say it's okay fellow and clap their hands sometimes you got you gotta get down and dirty with them and that's kind of what happened back shoulder fades and playing flanker not necessarily pierre's christmas list wish i would coach pierre anytime anywhere awesome dude awesome player but back shoulder fades and lining up a flanker no way you know um i heard about something that happened uh in that monday night game at new orleans

where Breeze set the record and you guys got pounded in New Orleans that night. I think it was New Orleans. I'm pretty sure. I actually had this news and broke the news, sorry, but that you went over to Josh Norman who had his headphones on at halftime and you ripped him off his head. It might have happened. I don't remember.

But yeah, we gave up like, I can remember before the game, Drew Breeze is going to break the NFL record for past. even yards or whatever it was. He's like 130. I said, he ain't going to get at our watch. You know, just clamped down on these whiteouts and get after his ass. He got it in like six minutes ago in the first quarter. It was quick. It was so quick. Yeah, that was. Yeah, he rubbed us. Yeah. I know we've talked about that season. I, like, I actually think that season was one of your best coaching jobs, especially after you guys lost all the quarterbacks when you lost Alex and you lost Colt, et cetera, and you had Josh Johnson and you had Mark Sanchez. I think I've told

you many times. I think the late season games against Jacksonville and Tennessee, I think that you got every ounce you could have out of that team to try to make the postseason at the very end. I mean, that Tennessee game was right there for the taking if Josh doesn't throw that pick at the end. Yeah, he worked the wrong side of the field. God dang, we have the guy's wide open on the other side. He worked the boundary. He should have worked in fields. But, yeah, I remember that.

You know, those stuff. They battled. They tried hard, and Josh was a very competitive guy. And, you know, he's a good back. He's still a backup for Baltimore, by golly. Well, you've told me that he's, right? You've said before that he's one of the smartest quarterbacks you've ever had. Yeah, he's damn near genius.

Yeah, he's smart as hell. He came in, and, you know, he played for me at Cincinnati as well, so he kind of knew the terminology. But for him to pick up the system as, quickly as he does. He's very smart. He doesn't flinch. He calls plays. I mean, motions, formations, shifts, whatever it is. He just spit them out. He's awesome. But what I was going to say about that season, and I've probably said this to you before, is you guys were five and two, and you were getting every ounce out of that team that you could. But it was, you had also been

blown out a couple of times. New Orleans blew you out. Atlanta blew you guys out at home. Indianapolis and the home opener blew you out. And I was like, this is a little bit shaky. Like, offensively, you were running the ball, you weren't making mistakes. You know, there were a couple of games. I remember Dallas missed a field goal at the end that would have forced overtime. And things were just, you know, breaking your way the whole way. But I always felt like there was just something missing offensively,

that you just weren't very explosive. Yeah, you know, it was Alex's first year. we were six and three and a game and a half or two-game lead in a division. And then we played Houston, obviously. That's when he broke his leg and actually we had a horrible call at the end of the game, but they did not call PI on Josh Dock. He would have actually won that game with Colt. Went to Sixth and Four and then Colt.

And then we had a Thursday game against Dallas and got beat. I think it was Thursday. Yeah, it was Thanksgiving. Yeah, and then Colt broke his leg. Yeah, and then Colt broke his leg the week after. And that was kind of when I should hit the fan. But, yeah, you know, it's tough when you lose your, quarterback, two quarterbacks, you get pretty much no chance.

When you lose one quarterback, you have very little chance. When you lose two, you have no chance. But the guys battled. You know, he tracked a little run there, but couldn't get it done. Seven and nine. So back to last night for a moment. The 49ers are dead this year. They're pretty much done.

Do you think that's it for them in terms of their current run? Do you think it's over? You know, that was a tough day. Brock Purdy in the rain. You know, you've got a little hard. tough throwing day for him. You know, Debo doesn't look like the same guy for whatever reason. They're missing my yuk and obviously Trent.

They have some injuries as well documented, but so does everybody. Minnesota lost their left tackle. And they're starting linebacker and a bunch of guys. And, you know, look at Detroit's defense. They've lost a ton of guys. So they're going to have to make some changes. I don't know how they are, salary cap-wise. McAfree, they have to make a decision on him coming off another injury.

So, yeah, I wouldn't say they're done because they still have Brock and they still have some weapons, but it's going to be tough for them to get back. Is Trent Williams the best player you ever coached? Yeah, yeah, not even close. Yeah, he's by far. He's the most dominant player at a position that I've coached. I had A.J. Green in his prime, his first three years, he was unbelievable.

Yeah, those two would probably be my top two guys. Are the Rams a threat to do anything if they make the postseason? I like, you know, I do like the Rams. You know, anytime you have a guy like Matthew at the home, and then I like their young defense, play very good against Buffalo, obviously, but not many teams do against Josh, but that was a, not like the way they play, but they have a good young defensive front. They have two or three guys that can get some pressure.

You know, Jared versus a good player. Young's a good player, so they got some guys that can rush them. The back end of them not bad, so their defense can hang in there. And then, you know, with Stafford, I know Cup didn't do anything last night. Not many guys did, but yeah, they're definitely a threat. I don't think anybody would want to play the Rams in the playoffs. You are the owner of a team and you need one coach for a stretch run and a playoff run. Kyle or Sean?

Oh, Sean all day. Why? I just, you know, I've been around Sean. I coached with Kyle one time, one year. I was a quality control guy and he was a quality control guy at Tampa. And Kyle is a very smart guy, but I just know Sean and Sean's makeup and the way he prepares and get the teams ready and the system that he runs. is, you know, especially in the passing game. I think it's passing game.

It's much better. Kyle's got a probably better running game, I guess. You know, that's what his forte is. But I think overall, I think Sean's better. Sean or Kevin O'Connell? Same question. Well, Sean's won a Super Bowl, so I pray to still take Sean. Kevin's done some unbelievable things with the players that he's had,

and what he's done with Sam Darnold is legendary. So I love him both, but I probably still take Sean because he's already been there and done that. Been the two-sup bowl of 1-1 already at his young age. Give me a coach, past or present, that you think hasn't gotten the attention from, you know, media fans that he deserved because he was really good to great, and you don't think that person was ever recognized for it, or it hasn't been yet. Well, I think Todd Bowles is a hell of a coach, what he does at Tampa Bay. I don't know if you consider him getting recognition or not, but, you know, they've kind of rejuvenated Baker-Mayfield's career. He always has good solid defenses he gets after them.

And then, you know, he's had different coordinators and somehow they still are in contention every year in the playoff run. And they're probably going to win a division again this year. So I've always had a big amount of respect for Todd Bulls. Yeah. I actually tried to hire him one year, but he actually ended up going back with who was, a coach of the bucks, old guy. Ariens. Yeah, Bruce Harriens, right.

Yeah, I remember that, and I remember when it was reported that there was interest, and I was excited for it, because I feel the same way about Todd Bowles from afar, that he's never sort of gotten the due that he deserves. Why did he go back to Tampa? I know he was good friends with Doug Williams,

and that that was part of the push. Why did he pick Tampa over Washington? He worked with Bruce Ariiv in Arizona. Right. So they were tight, and I have a history together. So it was an easy choice for them. I was kind of on the limbo, the hot seat already. Right.

It was a lot more, yeah, a lot more cushion for him there at Tampa Bay. Probably got a three or four-year deal, too. All right, these last four games, the home stretch of the season for Washington. When you're in the hunt, you were in the hunt a few times as a head coach and as a coordinator, Are these games this time of year different than the first two to three months? And if so, how? Well, they are different. Every game is different, obviously.

I mean, that's no secret. But I think this time with everything on the line, like everything is on the line, teams are getting bunched up and teams are making their late season run, they are different. This is an important time for you to continue to get better and play your best football this time of year. I mean, your most sound football, protecting the football, penalties, lack of penalties. This is an important time of year to propel you into the playoffs

where you have the confidence that you are playing your best football, and you remove all doubt. You know, Cliff King is very late season, he can't call play his late season, you know, whatever it is, a defect. You know, this is where these guys step up and gain the confidence going on the playoffs. That's the most important. Getting in the playoffs, most important, then playing your best football in your mind that you can beat anybody

going into the playoffs. One quick question, because when you were talking about being disciplined and penalties and not making mistakes, the whole thing, that's a big part of winning games. Monday night when Dallas lost on that punt block that went beyond the line of scrimmage, if I were a cowboy fan over the last several years, I'd be very frustrated. I think Mike McCarthy's a good coach, and you know more about that than I do, but his teams are constantly, or they have been there. at the top on penalties, on the top of the list of pre-snap, you know, penalties. Those are the little things that cost you games. Do you agree with me on McCarthy or not? Yeah, I do.

And it's really odd. He is an excellent football coach and won a ton of games in the National Football League. But that is odd for him because I know he's a detail-oriented coach. I know he coaches his little details and the pre-snap penalties and all that stuff. And then when guys go out and make those penalties, it's just don't understand why. You know, the lack of focus. You know, sometimes you've got to put some blame on the players. I mean, they're the ones that got to X-U.

They're the ones that got to focus. I mean, you know if you're on the punt-returned team, you don't touch the ball. It's a punt-returner's ball. Otherwise, you get the hell away from it. I mean, everybody yells, Peter, Peter, Peter! I mean, you don't touch the ball. I mean, it's not that hard. And when somebody does that, makes the coach look like, oh, you didn't prepare them.

We prepared them. He knew he just did it. he's had an idiotic play. Not that he's an idiot. He just had an idiotic moment, and those moments cost you, but people blame the coach, but sometimes players need to take some accountability as well. All right. Match up against the Saints.

How do they beat New Orleans Sunday? They need it. They beat the hell out of them. That's what they got to do. You know, the Saints have been pretty competitive. But, you know, if they don't have Derek Carr, I think he's going to be out from what I hear. Yep, Jake Hainer's starting. Obviously, I mentioned this before.

Obviously, the folks got to beat Camara. and get him on the grass. He's a hell of the back, and they do a good job. But they're still in schemes. Coupiac's the offensive coordinator is a very good coach in the running game. And then obviously you've got somebody over the top of Valdez Scantling because he's the only big play threat they have. So just make sure we got Valdez Scalind taken away for the big plays.

And then let's get Katz on Camara all day long and defensively should be a pretty good day forward. And offensively continue to do what they're doing. And, you know, try to win the line of scrimmage. They should be well rested up front. And then obviously the zone reads and the Ruffman. P.O's with Jaden and getting a ball of Terry, you have some play action shots. Perfect. I think they have a great recipe already in-house built to beat the Saints.

On the road, it should happen quite easily. You got a final score prediction quite easily? Yeah, 27 to 3. Wow, that would be impressive. Before we get to your lock of the week, real quickly, Bill's Lions, Steelers, Eagles, the two games of the day, they're both going at the same time at 425. Who do you like? Great games.

Great games. I like lions. I just think they're playing pretty good. And I think defensively, despite their injuries, Coach Glenn has done an excellent job of that unit. I get a couple stops. I just don't think Buffalo. I think Buffalo showed some serious chinks in their armor on defense against the Rams last week.

And I think Detroit continues to exploit it. I think their safeties aren't very good. And I think once you get by the initial point of attack, they get some big players down the field to Jamesville Williams or obviously a Monter St. Brown. And then the other game, I think, I like Philadelphia. I know they got a lot of stuff going on with AJ Brown and hurts supposedly, but I think they're going to overcome it and do enough to beat the Steelers.

I really like where they are defensively. And I think offensively with some of the man coverage at Pittsburgh plays, I think AJ will actually have a big game. Seven and five now. You had the Chiefs last week. So did I. I liked them as well. I went to bed at halftime thinking it was over.

I know. I woke up and I was like, what the hell happened? I know. I agree. And in fact, at the end, when they took knees to kick the field goal, when they had a minute and a half to maybe score a touchdown to go up and get the cover rather than rely on a kicker who doinked it in. Everything seems to be breaking right for them.

I mean, they have really lived on the edge the Chiefs have this year. All right, what's your lock of the week? You know, it's hard because this team hasn't been playing very good, but I'm taking the Jets. I'm down here in Jacksonville. I've watched the Jaguars. Matt Jones is. Not very good. They're going to have trouble scoring, even though it's the Jets defense. I understand that, but I just can't see the Jaguars competing with the Jets.

I mean, they still have Aaron Rogers, DeBonte Adams. I mean, they have good players for God's sakes. They got to win by more than three or three and a half. I had the Jets last week plus six, went to overtime, and the dolphins won the toss, went down the field, scored a touchdown. So I pushed with what looked like a winner, the entire. afternoon. All right, the Jets laying three and a half at Jacksonville. I'm looking for some threes here to try to give you. I just found a three. I found a three. So I'm going to give you

the Jets minus three people. If you only have three and a halves out there, just by the half point and lay the three. Jets minus three. I don't think you'll beat it. 24 to six, 24-6 jets. All right. We got 24-6 and 27-3 as two produce. final scores. I actually like Washington as well. There you go. Obviously. Laying seven and a half, see if you can find some minus sevens.

Thank you. Appreciate it. Have a good weekend. You got it. All right, thanks, Kevin. Jay Gruden, everybody, smell test when we come back after these words from a few of our sponsors. Euro step around that hot take and make a play today with Robin Hood. With a 3% boost on your annual IRA contributions with Robin Hood gold, your money starts

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And if you're looking for the perfect gifts for the whole family, skims just launched their biggest holiday shop ever, also available at skims.com. Kevin looks where the John Q Public is putting their cash and does that. The opposite. It's time for the smell test. The sponsor of the smell test, as always, is MyBooky. MyBooky.orgie.orgie.org, use my promo code, Kevin, D.C., and when you make your first deposit, they're going to double your money.

So if you put in 50 bucks, you'll have 100 to bet with. If you put in 250, you'll have 500 to bet with. If you put in 500, you'll have $1,000 to bet with. Take the free money. I say this every week, but if you have not. signed up with my bookie. I don't care how many places you are signed up with. Take the free money. And understand, and I've emphasized this for years now, my bookie's got fair pricing, fair everything, but you're not going to pay minus 125 or minus 135 on a straight bet loss. You're

going to pay minus 110. If you're not looking for things like that, you should be. It adds up over the course of a season. If you bet $100 on a game, $10 on a game, why pay $13.50 on a loss when you can pay $11 on a loss? Why pay $135 on a $100 loss when you should be paying $110 on a loss? My bookie's got everything you need. All the football for this weekend, all the football for next weekend, one of the great football weekends of all time with the first round of the college football

playoff scheduled, along with an NFL Saturday slate, NFL game Sunday. Next week's going to be off the chain. By the way, I was looking at the weather forecast for some of those college games. Cold, snow in the forecast for places like South Bend, Columbus, Happy Valley. It's going to be insane next weekend. Jaden Daniels currently at My Bookie, minus 285 to win offensive rookie of the year. Bo Nix plus 192. Jaden a solid favorite right now.

Brock Bowers is third. He's plus a thousand. He's having an insane season. He's already set the rookie record for receptions for a tight end, and he's got a chance to break Mike Dicka's record. Yet Dicka's got the record for reception yardage for a rookie, and Bowers may catch that record as well. I was reading something the other day.

It was from an NFL analyst who would talk to people inside the NFL. Some people believe right now Brock Bowers as a rookie is the best tight end in the game. Obviously, Kelsey isn't what he once was. You know, Kitt'll look pretty good last night. But some people believe that Bowers right now is the best tight end in football. But Jaden still a healthy favorite at minus 285. So go to my bookie and catch Jaden right now at minus 285 because if he has another really good game Sunday, he's going to be like minus 400. So the price is probably a good one right now on Jaden Daniels. MyBooky.ag, use my promo code exactly the way I gave it to you, Kevin D.C.,

and they'll double your money on your initial deposit. All right, the smell test last week, 2, 2 and 1. Kind of got unlucky with that push in the jet game. The Chiefs look good for a while. lost Penn State too in the Big Ten title game. Thank you, Drew Aller, for throwing that interception at the end. That was the first non-winning week in seven weeks. I was going for seven consecutive winning weeks.

Two, two and one, so you lost juice last week if you played my picks. I've got six picks for this weekend, and it starts tomorrow. Northwest Field, Army Navy. Yeah, it's being played in Landover tomorrow. Army's a six and a half point favorite. I'm going to buy the half point and take Navy. The public is pounding Army. Navy's good.

They're both going to a bowl game. This is probably going to be one of those typical Army Navy games. A lot of rushing yards, although both teams can actually throw the ball much better than previous years. But doesn't it feel like 20 to 16 or 21 to 17, something like that? I'll take Navy plus the points as an anti-public side there. Sunday, how about Tennessee getting just five, just five against Cincinnati? It actually doesn't even make sense with the Bengals having the firepower offensively and them winning that game. And by the way, still being available and around for a potential playoff run. They're not mathematically eliminated. And they've got a game

against Denver in a few weeks that could be huge. Cincinnati needs the game. Tennessee got blown out by Washington and then last week lost to Jacksonville. And, you know, I mentioned, I think, when I was giving you my keys to a win Sunday against the Saints, that Washington, you know, handled Tennessee. Well, Tennessee is a good defensive team. They've been good defensively against almost everybody except Washington. I mean, I know they held Jacksonville to just 10, and they lost the game 10 to 6. Jacksonville stinks. But, yeah, they're playing Cincinnati.

They might be able to run the football with Tony Pollard against Cincinnati. Rico Dowdell had a big game Monday night against Cincinnati. They can't stop anybody. Tennessee up front, they can be dominant at times with Jeffrey Simmons in particular. The key to this game is Tennessee possessing the football by running the football. I don't trust Levis, but that line is so short. Public all over Cincinnati laying five. I'll take the Titans plus five.

The Colts are at Denver, another big game in the AFC playoff race, wild card race. The Colts still in it. They've got to beat Denver, though. They're getting four and a half. The public better loves Sean Payton, loves Nicks, loves Cortland Sutton, loves that defense. I'll take Indy and Anthony Richardson plus the four and a half.

Philly minus five and a half is actually an anti-public side. The public better really likes Pittsburgh. Ticket-wise, money-wise, it's all on the Steelers. And I really like the matchup, too. This is one of those where it's not just system contrarian play. I think the Eagles are going to shut Pittsburgh down Sunday. They didn't play well against Carolina. They won Pittsburgh beat Cleveland.

They've been rolling. I think this is a game in which, Pittsburgh really struggles to run the football, especially with Najee Harris in particular. I think Jalen Warren against Philadelphia is a better bet to run the football, but I think Philadelphia keeps Pittsburgh to like 14 or less. And I think they win this game and cover the Eagles minus five and a half. Two other plays in their totals. I like the under in the Pittsburgh Philly game. That is a big overplay for the public. As was last. I should have given out the under last night. It looks great now. I didn't play it personally,

but I honestly didn't see the one-sided overaction in the game last night until right before kickoff. It was more split during the week, and then it went heavy with overplay during the day yesterday. A lot of overs in general this week. People love Steelers, Eagles over. I'll go under 43, and they love Packers Seahawks over 45 and a half in the Sunday night game. I love the standalone game unders. Public loves favorites and overs in the Sunday night, Thursday night, and Monday night windows. I'll take the under in the Packers, Seahawks Sunday night game. I'll probably give out the Bears on Monday plus the points against the Vikings.

I'm not going to do it now. We'll see what happens over the weekend with that number. but there you go. Six plays. Navy buying the half point plus seven. The Titans plus five, the Eagles plus five and a half, the Colts plus four and a half, the under in the Pittsburgh Philly game, under 43, and the under in the Packers Seahawks Sunday night game, 45 and a half. All right, that is it. I'll be back Sunday after the game with a quick 30 minute or so recap, unless we get a guest from the Superdome, that's a possibility, especially if they win. So until then, enjoy this first part of the weekend.

Tomorrow is the first Saturday in a long time without football start to finish. Army Navy is cool. I've been to the Army Navy game. It is really cool to go to that game. It's here. I'm not going tomorrow. But if you've never been and you have a chance to go, I recommend it. The pageantry of it is spectacular.

All right, I'm done.