The Kevin Sheehan Show - Washington's Top 5 Net Rest Advantage

Episode Date: May 19, 2026

Kevin opened up with some schedule follow-up along with the PGA, the NBA Playoffs, and a Super Bowl in DC light becoming visible at the end of the tunnel. ESPN's Bill Barnwell joined the show to talk about the NFL increase in "13 personnel" and how the Commanders might take advantage of the trend in 2026. Josh Robbins/The Athletic jumped on to talk Wizards' #1 overall, the potential for a trade, the NBA Playoffs, and more. For all your football betting needs: DCRELOAD at MyBookie for a 50% Deposit Match   Chime is not just smarter banking, it is the most rewarding way to bank. Head to www.Chime.com/SHEEHAN. It only takes a few minutes to sign up.   Get 20% off your first order at www.FastGrowingTrees.com with code [Sheehan].   So if you are looking to make Mother’s Day perfect, or just want to impress your friends and family with an epic meal next time you host, go to www.GOLDBELLY.com and get free shipping and 20% off your first order with promo code sheehan. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Here's Kevin. Two guests on the show with me today. One of my favorite DSPN's Bill Barnwell is up first. Bill wrote a very interesting story last week about the NFL moving in the direction of more three tight end sets on offense, a.k.a. 13 personnel, which is defined as one running back,

and three tight ends. One specific trend-setting head coach turned to that personnel grouping a lot last year as the season went on. Bill thinks more of it could be coming, including from teams like Washington. Bill Barnwell, next segment, followed by Josh Robbins of the athletic.

Josh covers the Wizards, and they have the number one pick, as we all know, and there appears to be some talk of trade. The show's presenting sponsor is always, Window Nation, 86690 Nation, windonation.com, if you need new windows. This from Dave, who tweeted to me about my Friday guest, Max St. John. Max is the league's schedule planning analytics guy. He was a part of the group that put together, the NFL schedule that we talked a little bit about last week.

Dave wrote Kevin, Max was great. That said, I think you surprised him with your insights. So Dave, I don't think I surprised Max necessarily with insight. I think I surprised him because I'm just so into the schedule and how it comes together every year. And I doubt that many people that he ends up going on with have that level of passion. for the schedule. It is a bit strange, I admit it, but he seemed to be interested in the conversation that we had on Friday. If you missed it, it is in the very first guest segment,

second segment of the show from Friday show. There was one thing that I asked him about that I wanted to play back for you and talk about a bit. The topic of net rest days, that Warren Sharp study, that Warren does every year. And I mentioned on Friday's show that Washington's schedule provided them with a nine-day rest advantage, which based on recent years should put them in a top five favorable position

in terms of net rest days. So I did ask Max about net rest days and whether or not they accommodate teams that were on the wrong side of net rest days one year to try to create something a little bit better the following year. Here's what he said. I'm going to include my question as well. Do you consider net rest days like a team that had a disadvantage in net rest days a year ago? Maybe you look at giving more of an advantage to the following year or not? We certainly look at it. We at the office, we have a great research group. I'll give Mike Lopez and Tom Bliss a shout out because they've written a whole paper on this by advantage and rest disparity and have kind of come to the

conclusion that it's not really impactful for our teams. We feel pretty comfortable. I think a great example to point out is the 49ers of a couple years ago. They had a negative 20-something rest disparity. They went to the Super Bowl that year. That's not something something we'll have certainly some teams complain about, but as a league office, we feel comfortable releasing a schedule with teams with a higher net rest disparity than some others because we don't think it's a big disadvantage for anyone. Truthfully, they don't think it's super impactful. So some teams complain about it, but their research, the league's research, says it's not

very impactful. The 49ers example that Max gave was from 2023, where the 49ers did indeed have the worst net rest situation in the league and made the Super Bowl out of the NFC. Interestingly, the Chiefs that year had the third worst net rest situation and made the Super Bowl as well and won the Super Bowl beating the 49ers that year in overtime. It does appear, though, at least on a very quick back of the envelope audit, that 23 appears to be bit of an outlier. They have all the research going back many, many years. Warren Sharp has only done this for six or seven years. But by the way, in 2023, the team with the best record in the

NFL in the regular season, the Ravens, they were 14 and 3, and they had a top five net rest situation. There were other teams that typically don't perform very well, like Cleveland and Miami, who both went 11 and 6 that year and had very favorable net rest situations. But 24 and 25, the last two years, were pretty good examples of it would be hard to ignore the data. Again, Max is talking about research from going way back. And he pointed to that 23 season, and that was certainly interesting if you don't believe in net rest, you know, data. because San Francisco and Kansas City had two of the three worst and made the Super Bowl. But in 24, those same 49ers had, again, for the second consecutive year,

they had the worst net rest situation and went 6 and 11. And in that particular year, Baltimore had the best net rest situation, went 12 and 5. And Minnesota and Philadelphia were tied for the second best net rest. situation, and they both went 14 and 3. And then last year, I told you this on Friday, the top five net rest situations went a combined 54 and 31 in the regular season, and the bottom five net rest situations last year went a combined 31 and 54. Washington was one of those teams with a bad situation.

13, minus 13 was their net rest disadvantage last year. Again, for those that aren't familiar with net rest, it is essentially taking over a 17 game schedule, the number of days in which you are at a disadvantage, meaning you play on Monday night, and the team you're playing next Sunday played on Sunday, so that's a minus one disadvantage. and taking that and subtracting it from the games in which you have an advantage.

Washington this year has one of those major advantages. They are plus seven in their game against Philadelphia on Sunday night football November 1st because they're off their by week and Philadelphia plays on a Monday night. So plus seven is about, actually I think plus eight, is the actual best situation. You can get plus eight or minus eight, and that would be off of a bye week with the other team playing off Monday night.

Washington actually goes into its buy week off a Monday night game, which is why the net rest is plus seven and not plus eight. But that's a great situation for them. They only have one negative rest situation, and that is when they play Cincinnati on Monday night football, November,

and then they go out to Arizona to play on a Sunday. Arizona played the previous Sunday, so it's just a one-day disadvantage. But Washington, as I mentioned on Friday, I thought they would have a top-five situation. They do. They're tied for fourth per Warren Sharp's complete study of NFL rest edges that he put out over the weekend. They're tied for fourth at plus nine with Seattle. Chicago's got the best situation Buffalo, the second best situation

Dallas, the third best situation and then it's Washington and Seattle. The worst situations are the chargers with one of the worst ever at minus 24 followed by Philly, Vegas, the Jets, and New Orleans. So we'll see how it pans out when we get to the end of the upcoming season to see if it's three straight years

where this data really does speak to either and an advantage or a disadvantage. It did not speak to that in 2023, as Max pointed out. How about the golf yesterday? I mean, I have to tell you, I was not that familiar with Aaron Rye, not even a little bit. I had seen his name before on leaderboards, but I didn't know his story. He's English, but he is, you know, someone Tom, of course, would say, say that can't be possible. He is like Rory,

the master's winner from very much a working class family. Speaking of Tommy, tonight is his cigars and curveball curveball's event at Shelley's tonight 6 o'clock. I will be

there. In fact, I'm trying to get out of here as quickly as possible today so I can get down there. Such a great cause. Tommy does such a great job with this event. But Aaron Rye, humble beginnings, ranked 40th in the world, I think, and he played one of the best final rounds we've seen in a long time in championship tournament history. He went six under on his last 10 holes. He shot 65, 5 under in a final round runaway.

I mean, that thing was bunched up all weekend long. the course played much more difficult than most of the experts had predicted. I had Steve Sands on the radio show on Thursday morning, Wednesday morning or Thursday morning, I'm forgetting now. And he thought that a very low score would win it, meaning, you know, something really good, like 13, 14, 15 under. And those leaderboards all weekend long, you know, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and even going into Sunday. I mean, you started to wonder whether or not the winner would actually be under par.

Of course, there were so many players under par, but they were all at four under, three under, two under, and Smalley had the lead going into the final round at six under, but Aaron Rye, man, apparently a very popular player on tour. In fact, Rory said it and Jim Nance said it, that the the people, you know, that play and work on that PGA tour, this was a very popular champion. And he was so, so good down the stretch. That 68 and a half foot putt that he made at 17 was certainly all world. And one for the books, the way he finished, six under over his last 10 holes on a course that played very, very, very, hard all weekend long. So congrats to him. That was pretty awesome to see. Some of the other stuff

that happened over the weekend, I'll save for tomorrow with Tommy. We'll talk about the Nats a little bit tomorrow. We'll talk about the passing of Shirm Lewis. Remember the bingo calling offensive coordinator that Dan hired to try to get Jim Zorn to quit. A couple of other things from the weekend we will save for tomorrow. Just one NFL note, and that is that Nashville is getting its first Super Bowl. The 2030 Super Bowl has been awarded to Nashville. It's in L.A. this year, Atlanta next year, Vegas the year after that, and then 2030. That would be January, February, excuse me, of 2030, the 2029 season. Nashville, with its new dome stadium, will get a Super Bowl.

When I saw that, the first thing I thought of is, I don't know if it's the next year in 2013 because that would be the first year of the new stadium at the RFK site. But I would imagine that no later than 2032 or 233, Washington gets a Super Bowl. I don't know if a year from now, Washington's being named the 2013 Super Bowl host. I would imagine it's more like two years from now that they're named the 20th. Super Bowl host, but we're going to have a Super Bowl here in the next six to seven years. Crazy. The NBA playoffs from over the weekend, so disappointing.

Three games, three blowouts. The game seven last night in Detroit, it really looked like the Pistons just had nothing physically. They looked absolutely shot after they went into Cleveland on Friday night and destroyed the Cavs to force a seventh and deciding game. None of those performances by either Cleveland on Friday night or Detroit last night can compare to the feeble effort that the Timberwolves gave at home in game six Friday night. They lost by 30. Look, they're not as good as San Antonio, but the fight that they had put up throughout the series

in which they won against Denver, and then through the first four games of the series against San Antonio. I was not expecting that. I thought Julius Randall in particular was embarrassingly awful on Friday night from Minnesota. You know, the controversy in that game was Anthony Edwards got taken out of the game down 33 with eight minutes and one second left in the game, and he walked down to the San Antonio bench with still eight minutes and one second left, and both teams in huddles for timeouts, and he shook the hand of every San Antonio player and coach congratulating them. A lot of former players on social media were really upset at that.

They thought that that was not appropriate to do that with still eight minutes and one second left in the game. The game was over. They were down 33 with eight minutes in one second, and Chris Finch, the coach of the T. Wolves, was pulling Edwards. Edwards, remember, has been injured in these playoffs. I don't know. I'm not really surprised by anything anymore. And in many ways, it was a nice gesture. I'm not that hung up over it, but man, did that draw the attention of a lot of people. Look, San Antonio right now is just rolling. And Wembe is an absolute unicorn alien. He's one of the greatest defensive centers in the history of the game, and he's barely played but three years. I was so impressed. with the way he just altered shots over and over again. I am picking OKC to win the Western Conference finals.

I think that you've got to kind of earn your way. You've got to take your lumps. This is the first year in the playoffs. I guess if anybody's going to do it in their first year, it would be somebody like Victor Wembeñaman. Look, they got good players around them. Castle was amazing on Friday night in Minnesota. but I like OKC in a long series.

I think San Antonio will win a couple of games, maybe three. We could see a seventh and deciding game. But man, three games this weekend, all blowouts. I give Cleveland some credit, and you know, I'm hard on James Harden. He's just one of my least favorite team sport players of this era. And his stat line last night looked terrible in a game seven. But if you watched that game, he was actually much better than he was Friday night. He only had nine points on two of ten from the floor. He was 0 of six from behind the arc.

By the way, that's three straight game sevens in which Hardin hasn't made it to double figures in his playoff career. But I thought he made a lot of good decisions offensively. I thought he defended well. He only had one turnover after having eight turnovers on Friday night. And his plus minus was the highest on the team. I didn't notice that until this morning when I looked at it. but it was funny. People were killing Hardin to me on Twitter last night. And I watched the game and I was like,

I actually thought he had made and made during the game some really good decisions and was much better with the basketball, even though he did not knock down many shots. I like the Knicks over the Cavs in six, and I like OKC over San Antonio in seven. But the NBA playoffs, man, they're great. But these seventh games and these sixth games when teams can be eliminated, man, it is much better for the league if these games are competitive. And in Minnesota's case, it really looked like they gave up.

And in Detroit's case last night, it looked like they had nothing in the tank, nothing. Cade Cunningham had played some pretty good basketball in this postseason. and he was not very good last night. Nobody for Detroit was last night. All right, let's get to Bill Barnwell. We'll do that right after these words from a few of our sponsors. I'll be honest. At first, I was skeptical about ordering plants online,

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Joining me right now is ESPN's Bill Barnwell, one of my favorites to read. Bill writes prolifically for ESPN.com and does so on so many interesting topics, the most recent of which Bill got my attention, Bill wrote about the Rams switch to more 13 personnel during the season last year. 13 personnel is one running back, three tight ends. That leaves you with one wide receiver.

11 personnel is one running back, one tight end. That's three receivers on the field. And that's primarily what the Rams have run under Sean McVeigh. but they made a switch bill last year to much more 13 personnel. Share with my listeners the event or the game in which Sean decided this was the way to go. It was Pooka and the Kuwaiting for getting hurt. And that was a likely source, right? In the Rams for the entirety, really, of the Shaw McVehrer have been in 11 personnel team,

one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers. The number of times they ran 13 personnel on a full season in prior years, including 2024, you can count it on one hand and not use all of your fingers. So they were really in a lead personnel team up and down the field, and then the quick gets hurt last year in October. They don't really have a lot of confidence in their whiteouts beyond Devante Adams. They have a lot of tight ends. Show like they give it a shot.

They paid 13 personnel about 35% of the time against the Jaguars in London. They blow out Jacksonville, it ended up being a pretty good football team. Right. And even when the Kuwait came back, they stuck with it. They did have Dante Adams get hurt later in the year, which helped. But even into the postseason, the Rams ran 13 personnel, about 44% of the time, triple anybody else in football over that span. And other teams have won 13 personnel.

Trimic Day didn't invent going with bigger bodies. we could talk about sort of a logic underneath, underpinning all that, but we know when Stormic Vader something, it has a little more influence than when anybody else in football does it. And so I do think you're seeing teams looking what the Rams did last year, including possibly the commanders, and saying, hey, let's try to emulate that and let's try to get the advantages that it afforded the Rams last season with their own office. So let me just make sure everybody followed that.

So Pooka and Nakua got hurt in October of last year. They had a game in London against Jacksonville. They blew Jacksonville out, running more 13 personnel in that one game than Sean McVeigh had essentially run in his entire career as the head coach of the L.A. Rams. He decided not to replace Puka Dekua with other receivers. He put more tight ends on the field. So what did he take out of that game? And then in sticking with it for the majority of the rest of the season,

including into the postseason as a primary way of running offense. What were the big takeaways? Yeah, what it really did, Kevin, was sort of get that linebacker back on the field, that third linebacker that's gone away from the NFL. Since we've seen teams go smaller, play more spread offenses, the NFL has changed on defense. That third linebacker typically comes off the field on passing downs. We see teams respond with nickel defense.

They pay their spot corners more. They don't really value that third liebacker. And that's what they and Toshanahanan, and those offenses wanted to explain. They throw over the middle of the field. They throw play action. They play from under center, which I'm sure we're going to get to in this conversation,

but they want to stretch those linebackers and exploit them in coverage with, obviously, lag receivers, but running backs and tight ends as well. And so what their team personnel did was it got that liebacker back on the field, teams saw three tight ends. Outside of Seattle, which played Bickle pretty much all the time,

no matter who was on the other side of the field, teams typically said, hey, we see three tight ends, we're sending that third linebacker back on the field. And from McNean, that was an opportunity. His tight ends were not incredible. He didn't have a trade McBride or Brock Bowers, but he had guys who could beat the other teams' third-bast linebacker in coverage, and so they were able to exploit that.

And I do think that's sort of at the core of what made it work, is that, you know, as an offensive play caller, you're sort of trying to figure out, okay, not only why are we calling the plays, but also what does that do to the defense? What can we learn from the defense? And if you're playing 13 personnel and you have the team in their base defense, well, there's only so many looks teams have to defend 13 personnel. There's only sort of a match of that.

And so you're sort of limiting what the defense can call for those plays. And, of course, if you limit the defensive playbook, and you only have certain checks against 13 personnel or against bunches or having the formation into the boundary, all these things that you can do to kind of manipulate the defense, okay, you only have one way to deal with this. And once we see that, we know how we can exploit it. And so it's not only about just getting big bodies on the field,

it's also kind of an information-finding thing for great offensive coaches like shopping. You know, when you mentioned Seattle, the first thing that popped into my mind is Nick Amanawarie was for all intents and purposes, a safety who also looked like a linebacker on the field. So I'm wondering, is that why they were able to get away with it? I mean, look, Seattle won those last two games against the Rams, but it's not because they were super dominant defensively in those games. It was special teams plays that really cost the Rams more than anything. But is that why that one specific player, they were able to stay in Nickel? you're correct that is totally true and that was having a defensive player who can hold up in coverage

in that spot in the spot or you know playing in the field but also then holding up against the run because Seattle was playing very light boxes against the run they're playing with two liebackers four defensive linemen so they're basically daring teams to run the football and so when you do that your defensive acts all need to tackle well the other scood also plays in the spot as a very good tackler as well but even then in warry to be a physical force and he was great against the run. He was great, you know, fending off blocks. And that was what made that work for Seattle.

So many other teams could not do that. And even if they tried to emulate it, could not get it to work because they didn't have the same personnel. So that was really kind of a skeleton key for the Seahawks on defense all the way to the Super Bowl. What happens when you're in 13 personnel a lot more than teams have been in it over the years to things like explosive play?

rate. Like, what about explosive plays? You know, passes over 20 plus yards. You can create them plenty because, again, you're getting that defense on the field, and so with those liebackers, you know, you're upping your play action rate when you're operating at 13 personnel, which does create more explosives. But it's really interesting, Kevin. And this is why I think, you know, I can rival this piece about how great 13 personnel if I can give you all the logic for it. But the reality is, you look around the NFL, anyone else besides the Rams or maybe the bills who weren't running 13 personnel, they stunk in it.

13 personnel was a disaster for teams who ran it a lot last year outside of some of the who were some of the teams that ran it a lot and failed last year? Steelers are a great example of a team that ran up to a 13 personnel. And it made sense, they have a lot of tight ends who were talented players, but it did not necessarily add up to a very effective offense. Let's go back a couple years under Kevin Stefanski, but Brown were a heavy 13 personnel team with Baker-Mafield there, and then before Deshaun Watson got there and they became more of a spread offense.

That offense was okay here and there, but it wasn't like they were dominating with 13 personnel the way the Rams did. And so this isn't like some solution. You can just say, okay, we're just going to get a bunch of tight ends, put them on the field, and it solves our problems. It's not that easy. You have to also make it work in the context of your broader offense. And so I do think those explosives trying to take shots down field is an essential piece of making this work.

If you're just using 13 personnel to run the ball and throw short, you're not going to do it well. You're not going to have opportunities to create stuff. You need to be creating explosives. That's what the Rams did so well with their entire offense last year, but especially at a 13 personnel versus other offenses in the NFL. You know, the one thing, as you mentioned, the Steelers, I mean, the first thing that came to my mind is, number one, they didn't have another receiver outside of Metcalf. Number two is they played a lot of really good defensive teams. They played Cleveland twice.

They played Green Bay. They played Seattle. I mean, they played, I thought, at the end of the year, the best defensive team in the NFL in Houston in that playoff game. And I don't know. Did the Rams have, I mean, they've obviously played Seattle three times over the last month and a half of the sea. But I guess part of my where I'm headed with this is does personally, In Pittsburgh's case, and maybe even in Cleveland's case, personnel probably drove that decision as much as anything else, right? Yeah, of course.

And I think that's the sort of the fascinating thing about why the Rams did it, right? Because they had two great wide receivers in Nakuwa and Devonthe Adams. And for most of the year, those guys are both healthy. The Kua only missed one week. You actually got hurt in the Ravens game, I believe, in the middle of that Ravens game and then missed the one Jaguio. game. So he was back pretty quick. Adams got hurt late in the year, but he was helping for most of the year, and they

still stuck with 13 personnel, even though it meant taking a really good player, one of those two wide receivers off the field for chunks of the game. And so that's why I think for these teams who drafted tight ends in the second and third round, they're leading into it with their personnel. Is that going to work?

I'm a little skeptic. Just because I think the RANBOR are a really good fit for it in a lot of ways that maybe some other offenses were not. Who was the tough matchup of the tight ends for them. Was it Higby? Oh, you know, it depends because they used them in different ways. I would say Parkinson.

Yeah. Was the topic? He was more of the yards after catch guy. And what you really noticed, when I went back to watch every single ram stop of last season, 13, 12, 11 in a matter. I watched every single stop before I went and wrote that column. And what was fascinating is how aggressive they were in running those tight ends downfield.

It looked like they were running short rounds. out there running typical tight end downs. They're running four verticals with their tight ends at a 13 person on a regular basis. They were lining up Terrence Ferguson, the second round pick, splitting it out wide, and just throwing back shoulders for him like he was, you know, AJ Brown or Jamar Chase, and that is a kind of a rare thing to do with a tight end. Well, they were huge. I mean, those guys were so big, yeah. Right, right. I think that's the fascinating thing. If they sort of saw that as an opportunity to create mismatches in a different sort of way,

I think Parkinson is the best receiving tight end of the bunch. He's the smoothest. He has the best hands. But they really are an offense where because they're so narrow to begin with, they're the narrowest offense in football on a pre-stown basis. So they're already in offense. It's very in line. They're really trying to get those linebackers to figure into the coverages.

They're trying to create some communication issues with the defensive side of the ball in terms of motion, in terms of who's guarding who. And then you're subbing-in-wide receivers for tight ends. you're creating more problems, and again, you're ready to that other linebacker on the field, but you can still take those shots vertically. And if they was very comfortable doing that with Matthew Stafford. So you went back and watched every offensive snap from the Rams season. I'm curious.

This is a bit of a diversion from where we were. But I've said many times since the season ended, Seattle was super impressive. I'm not taking anything away from them, and they were just incredible defensively. But never for a moment, including after they destroyed New England in the Super Bowl that I think there was a better team last year than the Rams.

And I would put Seattle as the second best team. I know that's insane because they beat him twice, but it was so flukish how they did it in that Thursday night game with the two-point conversion after the punt returned by Shaheed. And then you had the fumbled punt in the NFC championship game. Like I really thought last year, and I thought the Rams defense sort of waned a little bit, towards the end of the year, especially past defense.

But I thought that was one of the better teams we've seen in a while, the Rams of last year. I think the offense and the defense, we're just considering those two things for after the best team in football. I really do. Yeah. But the Seahawks had the best best team in football.

They did. If it didn't just been one bad game, I would take care and say, you know what, that's bad buck. But the Rams special teams were terrible all season. It cost them against the Eagles, where they had the block you at the end of the game. Right. cost them against the Niners, where they miss an extra point, and they're making a big difference.

It costs it against the Papers. You know, it cost them against the Seahawks multiple times. They had a return touchdowners. She used to get back in the game, and they fumble a punch away in the postseason as well. I mean, if you're having it happen week after week after week, if you're firing your special teams coordinator in mid-season, which the Rams did, I think that speaks to it being kind of this really meaningful problem. So, you know, it's not the most important part of the game, but it could be a game besideer. It really was a legitimate problem for the Rams all season.

One other thing on 13 personnel. Let's just say that this becomes a bit of a trend. And the tight ends, the number of tight ends selected in the draft. And by the way, the Rams selected a tight end in the second round from Ohio State. But let's just say that the number of snaps increases in 13 personnel around the league. will salaries at the tight end spot and linebacker spot follow? Because we all know where linebacker and tight end is sort of fallen in the compensation on the compensation chart. By the way, you know, I think you said it, I think you said it's a cheaper way to play.

It is cheaper. Those positions are less expensive, defensively and offensively. Yeah, I mean, it totally is. And I think if you're, you know, if you're at too much of the Rams and you're spending a lot at Matthew Stafford, you're going to be a lot on Pook and Akua, you're spending on Kairn Williams, a couple of your linemen are going to be expensive or are expensive already. You're spending a lot of your defense because that defense is very cheap now, but it's going to get very expensive very soon.

And just signed, of course, Tren McDuffie to the trade in the first pick to acquire. But one of the ways to mitigate that, to have a cheap quarterback, which they just drafted Tyson's going to be their long-term vision. there, but also to replace those second and third wide receivers if they're going to cost you what the Monte Adams cost you or Tutu Atlaw, who's making $10 million last year cost you, replacing those guys

with tight ends and getting, you know, a position that costs typically half as much on the open market as a wide receiver. That's one way to do it. And so I do think you're seeing teams, you know, not just the rest, I think around the league, saying, hey, if you go to Dustin Jefferson, yeah, that's worth it. Jamar Chase, yeah.

You're going to pay those guys. They're truly special. But isn't that 20 million dollar a year range? Would you rather have Trayette Bride in George Kiddler? Would you rather have, you know, Alex Pearce for $8 million a year more? I think a lot of teams would say Kittle than if Bryant in the vacuum, but why it was just a much more expensive position?

So Washington in the 24 draft selected Ben Senate out of Kansas State in the second round. He's not produced much at all, but after David Blow got elevated to offensive coordinator, which, by the way, Bill, they loved him the moment

they brought him into the building. I went back to see what Adam Peters said about Ben Senate. Do you know who he compared Senate to when he drafted him? Kyle Usecheck. Wow. And so now that makes me believe that, you know, they're going to be, well, we all believe they'll be under center a lot more. I mean, Quinn's talked about it and they've all talked about it.

And I certainly see a lot more play action pass attempts in the offense. I think those two things are given about what they'll be doing offensively. But then I thought about what he said about Senate, and I'm like, well, maybe that's the third tight end. Maybe he's actually a fullback. I mean, maybe not legitimately lining up in the backfield, but maybe on some snaps. But tell me what you think about Blow and what Washington's going to do offensively. this season and maybe just give me your quick thoughts on Senate. Yeah, I mean, you know, this is not, it's not brand new, right?

I mean, you go back to Chris Cooley. And Chris Cooley was an H-back at times where he lines it in the backfield, even though he was a different sort of tight end. But it's a fascinating choice. I mean, in the NFL right now, when we talk about how smooth it is to get transitions from the college game for the program for his quarterback, and a lot of teams do install stuff that makes, sense for what a quarterback did at the college level.

And we saw that. And it was a plus for the first couple years of the commander, first year with the commander-based for Chris Kingsbury that Jada Daniels was very comfortable, very familiar scheme. He was operating out of pistol, operating out of shotgun. There was a lot of RPO's, a lot of quarterback one game, a lot of, you know,

a different kind of offense, not a ton of play action, and definitely very little, if any at all, under center play action that the sort of stuff that is going to run with him this year. And so it's a really fascinating choice. I mean, they very easily could have leaned further into that

Kingsbury style of offense, or the Jaden Daniels style of offense. There's shotgun heavy offenses that work. There's RPO games that work. They could hire a college coach who's familiar with that stuff. We was just doing a better job of it, maybe than Cliff Kingsbury was. It could have kept Cliff. I mean, it would have been crazy for them to keep

Clint Kingsbury for another season. So you're asking a very talented quarterback, certainly, and I think very highly of Jayden Daniels' skills, but you're asking them to change his game, two years into his NFL career. This is going to be very new. It's going to be growing pains.

But I do think there's opportunities to begin here in terms of the play action game and creating more explosives, operating over the middle of the field and working the middle of the field, you know, creating yards after catch opportunities, playing to Jayden Daniels' strengths as a runner and as a creator out of structure. Even last year with the Rams, again, watching all those stats, they ran a ton of under-centered play-action boot game. where it was Matthew Stafford, who's not exactly a spry as Shaden Daniels, running play action, getting out of the flat, finding an open receiver.

And if you can make that offense work, the Seawks did it with Sam Darnold, Ramson with Stafford, it was such a reliable and effective way to create chunk games on the offensive side of the ball. And so there's a universe. This works out really well. For Ben Sidditchin, like you said, it's been really tertiary, if even piece of the offense over the past few years. is going away for him to be a reliable source, a useful player in the context of the offense,

lining up as a fullback, lining up as an M-9 tight-end, lining up as an H-back, lining up as an H-back, lining up as a sniffer. There's lots of ways to make that work. They have John Bates, who is a very good blocking tight-end, who I think is a perfect fit for what they want to do. We'll see what Chick-a-comwell. I think he's flashed real athletic upside over the course of his time in Tennessee, but, you know, he'll have a six-year game and then he'll disappear from him.

That could be a product of the quarterback, it could be a product. productive, maybe he's not a reliable receiver. I would love to have a feedback maybe a receiving option at tight end, another pass catcher, if they were going to play more 13. But I'm fascinated to see what this offense looks like. It is going to be one of the more interesting stories schematically about this upcoming season.

Yeah, no doubt. Just having them on the field, fingers crossed for, you know, a lot more games. He played four complete football games to finish last year. So, you know, keeping him healthy and upright. should change a lot. You know, it's interesting is, you know, they went out in sight and signed Chigacanquo, as you mentioned. They've also, like, just subtly, Quinn has mentioned Lawrence Cager, who was a practice squad

titan who actually really looked apart in the preseason last year, not that that means anything, but it's a pass-catching tight end. And I just have a feeling they're going to lean into that. They're going to want to run the football. And to me, just the idea of him under center with that boot game and him, being out on the edge as a bootleg passer if they can get that outside zone sort of working in the run

game. Wow. Because like you said, like I've watched Kirk do it here. Last year when he came in, he was much more under center towards, you know, than he was the year before. And, you know, he labors on that boot to get out there like

Stafford does, but still very successful. You get a guy threatening a defense with his legs on that play too. It could be really exciting. So what are your overall thoughts on Washington? I think there's a real low expectation bar for them among a lot of the national NFL, you know, pundits and media types like you. I have not heard what you think of Washington in 26. Go ahead. Give me a minute on them. You know, I'm optimistic.

I mean, we were having this conversation last summer where I was skeptical of the 25 commanders. I will say, I about think they were going to go 5 and 12. I think they were a little unlucky to be quite as bad. Like you said, the Jamie Daniels injury. We only forced 10 turnovers on the defensive side of the ball. And I think they're going to be better. But when I keep coming back to, you know, it's this idea of just, they almost got to cut the line when they started this rebuild under Dan Quinn.

Because the Robert Rivera, or I like Ronald Barra, I was a person, that error delivered basically nothing in the draft. A couple pieces here and there, Ben Cosby, it's a good player, but they didn't have a young core of calendar work with them. They sign a lot of free agents. Obviously, the Oxeneklers, the Bobby Wagner's and Eckerts is they hit in year one, whether it's injuries or a decline in place because they got a little older, they don't hit in year two. So now you're starting over a little bit with this roster

because a lot of those free agents filled in, fortunately not what the expectations. There's still some talent here, obviously, from the first two Adam Peters and draft, David Daniels, of course. I've currently played well, or played better, I could say, as the year went along,

struggled, obviously, early on in Paspro. I thought he improved as the year went along. My favorite was excellent as a rookie, maybe not quite at that level in year two. But the guys they sign this offseason to improve the defense, which is really where they had to take a step forward. a lot of them are players

who are in the prime of their careers. It's not guys in their early 30s or mid-thirties. It's not just a let's plug and play in Hope you land, you know, a guy who can just be a warm body and just hold his own and know where to go with the assignments. I'll say, oh, it was really good for the targets. Second half last season after that trade. He lived on Chase-on.

I thought a guy who I had ridden off with the Jaguars. Okay with the Raiders. He was really good with the Patriots last year. A real difference maker, especially late in games, made plays the Steel Bears the Patriots. Nick Robinson.

I'm going to watch the Lions play against the Rams. Nick Robinson had a good game against the Rams. I think he's very underrated quarterback over the course

of his run. I think you're getting a lot of talent out in terms of guys who, sorry, talent for them were getting a lot of guys

out who I think their names were bigger than their play, especially last season, the Marshawn Matamores, the Bobby Wagnos,

those guys were, you know, rightly seen as as important players for this team. They were not up to the expectations, even before

Lata Martin I heard, of course, up to the expectations that they were expected. I think there's a much more talented defense here. I think Dan Quinn's still a good defensive coach.

I don't think you suddenly forgot how to coach defense. To me, I think this is so much about just how does that offense as switch flip. If Jada Daniels is a great fit for this offense,

I think he has a talent to fit in any offense. If you coach it up right and get the stuff going correctly, that's going to be a really good football team. If not, and if they're playing

a lot of Marcus Marriota and the offense has been consistent. Well, then, I don't think the defense is going to be good enough to overcome that. I think defense is going to be better, and I think the offense has one of the widest range of the possible outcomes for any team in football this year. All right. Last one. There's a lot of conversation in this market about Brandon Ayuk, number one. There's been more recent conversation about Stefan Diggs.

What do you think happens between now and opening day? Do they add another playmaker, another playmaker? a wide receiver, and if so, which of the two is it? I still think it's IUC just because it's always made sense, right? I mean, it's always been the logical place for IUC to go. It's always been the logical place for the commanders to go. From the Niners' perspective, they have no rush. I'm sure you talked about this.

They can wait until basically before week one and then cut Ayuk, and, you know, teams will do their players' favors. I don't think the Niners want to do Brandon Ayuk any favors. They want to try and get address. cast pick for Brandon IUC, but I don't think anyone wants to absorb that contract. And so I do think it's going to be IEUK. Stefan Biggs, probably the player I would want more, given how he played last year. He was incredibly efficient while playing about half the snaps for the Patriots. I don't know what anyone could possibly expect from Brandon Iook or feel confident about

from Brandon IEague having not played in over a year after tearing his ACL. But the Adam Peters thing, it just makes too much sense. I think unfortunately, because it's going to get sprung along until late in the summer, be a situation where he's sort of still getting his way back into football shape, back into the organization, into the offense in the first few weeks of the year, maybe a guy for the second half of 2026, but it just feel like there's a wide open roster spot

waiting for a wide receiver at Brent that I would make perfect sense. You and I agree on that, in that the 49ers don't need to do them any favors. They don't need to do a competing team in their own conference. you know, a favor. Not with the way, you know, this, at least from the outside looking in, seems to have gone. As always, thanks for doing this.

Appreciate it. Hope you're well. I'm always happy to do it, Kevin. Anytime you need me. Hope for your chance. Bill Barnwell, everybody. So good. Up next, Josh Robbins from the Athletic. He and David Aldridge surveyed a bunch of NBA execs on who the Wizards should take at number one overall next month.

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Joining me right now is Josh Robbins. Josh covers the Wizards for the Athletic. You can follow Josh on X at Joshua B. Robbins. I have not talked to you since one week ago yesterday when the Wizards hauled in the number one pick in the NBA draft next month. David Aldridge wrote a story after surveying several league executives about who the wizard should take.

So let's cut to the chase. I want everybody to read this story, and I want everybody to subscribe like I do to the athletics, so you can read Josh's coverage of the team. But what did you learn from people around the league on what the wizard should do with that number one pick? So we spoke to 13 scouts, front office officials, executives for other teams. That's not a small number. And the majority of them think that AJ DeBancea would be the best pick at number one for the Wizards.

But many of them could, and it see the Wizards trading down, most likely to number two. So that was interesting to me. The whole piece was interesting to me. It's one of our better pieces. But very few people in the league seem to be ruling out the possibility of a wizard's trade. So let's talk about that because it's been out there a little bit, not just with what you just said from your story with David, but there have been others that have suggested that a trade back one spot with Utah is a possibility.

Two-part question. One, what would that package look like? What would the Wizards get back from Utah for moving back one spot? And then two, do you personally think that that's actually in play, that a trade could happen? Those are the two. The first question is the most important one. What would it look like? I don't see them doing it if they have a clear number one person who they think is better than everybody else.

And that same person would not be available at number two. I think they would avoid that. But let's just say, for example, Utah prefers to Bansa, but the Wizards prefer Darren Peterson or Caleb Wilson or Camboozer. In that case, yes, then I could easily see them trading down to number two. And let's remember, Utah does have draft picks for the future. future. But more importantly, I think, they've got some very impressive young players, one of them being Keante George, another being Ace Bailey. The Wizards were connected, had interest in drafting

Ace Bailey last year. Utah got him at five at number six. The Wizards drafted Tray Johnson. They're happy with Tray Johnson, but they do have interest in Ace Bailey. But I think Keontade George is a better player than Ace Bailey. prove me wrong on that, but... He averaged 24 points a game as a third-year player this past season. Right, and he's a point guard. Yeah. So, there you go.

But before Wizards fans get very upset, and I would understand why they would be upset, I could not envision a scenario in which the Wizards, for the sake of gaining quote-unquote asset, which is a word I hate to use. but it's apropos if you're talking about future draft picks, I couldn't see them doing that if it means that the person they would get at number two

is not the same foundational player who they could get at number one. Yeah, I totally agree with that. Like if they see a transcendent future MVP candidate six, seven years down the road, and they only see one of those, you have to take that player. If there's more than one, And if they see Peterson and DeBanza as equal in that, you know, chase for greatness down the road, that's a different story.

But if they only see one, the answer is easy here. And I would think they view it the same way. I had Keith on the show the other day. He doesn't say a whole lot. But clearly he understands that the need for a superstar player is every team's need if championship is the goal. Yes, you're right. There are not as many people in the NBA as you would think who truly drive winning in a gargantuan way. And they are among them, among these people. Sheigold is Alexander, two-time MVP, Yokic, Wembe, and arguably Jalen Brown, Jason Tatum, We're starting to run out of names here. Cade Cunningham is another one.

How many of those types of players are there really in the league? Not 30 of them. Is it 15? Is it 12? If you have a chance to bring aboard someone like that, like a Cooper Flag, at least what we think Cooper Flag will be able to do in Dallas, you cannot mess. with that. You have to bring that person aboard. But how many of those folks are there in this draft?

If there's more than one, then this becomes a much more interesting debate and a much more interesting conversation. So I think most people, Josh, believe that the number one pick will come from a group of two. I mean, there's a lot of time between now and June 23rd and things could change, but A.J. DeBanza, B.Y.U. and Darren Peterson, Kansas are right now the frontrunners to be the number one overall pick. My question to you is, I think most of my listeners know, because I've talked about Darren Peterson a lot this year during the college basketball season and all the games that he missed with all of the various ailments. But I'm curious with your access to not only our team but teams around the league. What's the word on how teams are viewing

the mystery around Darren Peterson? So full disclosure here, I have no idea what the wizard to think other than the fact that he's incredibly talented. So they're not going to disclose their draft board. They're just not. And if something somehow gets out, on their draft board. I wouldn't be surprised if down the road, but if that does happen, that's kind of a strategic

leak, which if you're a fan of the team is something you would be happy to hear that this team is that strategic. I'm getting into the weeds here. What I can tell you is that there's enough concern throughout the league about Darren Peterson

that that it seems almost like truism that you have to suck all this out. Why did he have these cramping issues? Why were there games in which he only played in one half? These need to be figured out

and the wizards are not stupid and they've been doing this a long time. They're going to do their research into everyone who they might possibly pick. And it doesn't only have to be in the top five. It's any graphic

they've made over these last three years, they're going to approach it not just like a reporter, but like a detective, which is as they should approach it. So there's more than enough concern to make that a priority, but I would imagine that they would do their due diligence on any of the people we've just discussed, the Banza, Boozer, Wilson as well. All right, I'm not going to hold you to it, but here we are, you know, five weeks before the draft roughly. What do they do the night of June 23rd when they're on the clock at number one? My guess would be that they stay at one and pick DeBanza,

but nothing would surprise me right now. One of the things that struck me from speaking of these scouts and executives and front office types is that several of them have a sneaking suspicion that when all of a sudden and done, eight, nine, ten years from now, that Caleb Wilson could be the best player coming out of this draft. another thing that struck me is that I had that two people tell DA and me that the person that the Wizards should be most focused on is loser as someone who stabilizes the entire roster, someone who always makes the right play as someone who sets the example as a roster's

best player. Now, no one said he's going to be as good as Tim Duncan, okay? I just want to be clear. of the things that made Tim Duncan who he was is that he was clearly the best player on the spurs and yet no one took coaching better than Tim Duncan did. No one was more business-like than Tim Duncan was. And when you're like that, you're the best player on an upper-level team, that filters down to everybody. And so that's the kind of influence people see for Camboozer. no one doubts what his influence would be. What the question is on him is, is he athletic enough to be a dominant player in the league? And you're going to get a wide range of opinions on that, which make him somewhat risky.

All right. Is Anthony Davis going to be on the roster next year? I think so. That's what I think is, that's how I think they're going to go into the season. Okay, so all of these kind of, you know, different, you know, conversations had about him, the conversations that he's initiated over the last, you know, going back to his press conference a few weeks ago, the first one that he had had since the trade, you feel like this, they acquired him for him to play for them, and that whether, you know, he sees himself as a long-term wizard or not, 2026, 2027, he's going to be here. My follow-up to that would be, do you think he signs a long-term extension? Your original question was totally apropos, because all of the things that he has said publicly

and what he is disappointment in initially being traded to Washington and surprise, that's worth discussing. Those are not, that's not quote-unquote fake news. As a matter of fact, he's out there on all these interviews. and during his postseason ex-in interview, saying with the press, saying that he doesn't,

he thinks it's going to be very difficult in the near term to turn a team that was a bad team into a contending team. So you're not asking these, these are good questions that you're asking, and the fact that I would even have to pause to answer it

should indicate to you and to your listeners that I have some doubts. I have some doubts. he will be with the team to start the season. Whether he signs a long-term extension, I wish I had a better answer for you other than I don't know. He's 33. Most of the last few years, he has not been on the court all that much.

And I would imagine that his asking price is extraordinarily high because when he is healthy and when he is bought in, he's still one of the league's top two-way players. And all these concerns that he's expressing publicly, I think it's fair to wonder that if a two or three-year extension at 50 million per or 40 million per, I think that that would alleviate a lot of his worries. At least I think it's fair to wonder whether it would. Yeah, it's fair to wonder whether or not some of the comments that he's made are all sort of trying to create the opportunity for another massive deal. and to get the wizard's absolute best offer. We'll see.

Do you, I mean, this sounds kind of silly to me, but there is some conversation about it because he did win a title with LeBron in the bubble in 2020. Do you think there's any chance in hell LeBron James would be interested in coming here? No, I don't. I don't either. Because as much as I just suggested that some of,

And you just, both of us just suggested that AD's concerns, as he has stated them publicly, might be connected to an extension. He's not wrong. He's not incorrect. You know, very rarely do teams turn 180 degrees on a dime from, even if you did take away the last two seasons, from going from 17 wins to 50 wins. He's not inaccurate on that. So there's a strong, that's truthful. That's, I think, accurate. But in the case of LeBron, who if he does go anywhere other than the Lakers for one more year,

whatever the length would be, I do think that he would want to make a real run at a title. And one would think that if he's going to be aiming for a title, he would go to a team that has made a deep run in the playoffs this year. Like, for example, would he go back to Cleveland? I would imagine that would be a great bookend to one of the great careers in the history of pro sports. And he would be joining a team that at the minimum has reached the Eastern Conference final. That doesn't need him to be the guy. So I think the more interesting question is, you know, eight years from now,

when the next great NBA player is nearing the end of his career, could the Wizards be in a a spot where the Wizards would be attracted to such a person. And I think that that answer is yes, why not? You know, by the end of that time, if they do make this sustained jump that they are saying they intend to make as a perennial contender and they have a foundational person on the roster who we think will be, they're going to draft number one right now and they have a new practice facility. and these upgrades to the arena remain upper tier.

You know, why wouldn't a top-level player want to come to Washington? There's no reason why the real issue that the Wizards had faced is 45 years in the making of 45 years of futility. And I look forward to the day when the Wizards are thought of as one of the top five franchises in the day. You and me both. Yeah, that would be nice. That's where they ought to be.

Yeah, well. This market. Yeah, they've been avoided like, you know, the plague here for a long period of time. And look, there are reasons for it. I understand it. I think one of the things that I've always, I've had this conversation so many times over the years about why Washington is not a destination for top flight NBA free agents. I mean, first of all, you know, I don't think everybody who isn't from here doesn't realize what a great place it is to live.

And by the way, raise a young family. But beyond that, it's just been viewed as one of the worst franchises, one of the worst run franchises, one of the least successful franchises. It's got, you know, crappy weather. In the summer, it's too hot. And the winter, you know, it can be. It can be. not every winter.

It can be miserable. And Miami and Los Angeles and some of the real, you know, Dallas, you know, some of the state tax states, just have been more attractive, you know. Not to mention that the, you know, the more marquee names, even if they are in markets that aren't, you know, necessarily attractive weather-wise, New York, Boston come to mind. Washington's just never been among those teams. but we know it to be a good basketball town, unbelievable grassroots through high school basketball,

maybe the best in the country, two powerful college programs historically in Maryland and Georgetown, and they've gotten the bulk of the attention over the last 45 years, not the bullets or the wizards in this town. But I have always said, Josh, I don't know if I've ever said this to you, if the Wizards ever became a legitimate, championship contending team year and year out, you know, where they're playing big games in the month of May and even into early June, they would be the clear cut number two in this town behind the football team, and you'd have to count spaces to get to number three. So I hope there's a day that happens. It could be. Yeah, could be. Look, there's no franchise in the league that has the

aura of the Lakers. Okay. No one, not the Knicks, not the Celtics, are on that level. Okay. And then the Celtics, the Knicks, they're a tier behind. But Washington one day could be in tier three or four. Okay. So it could be in the second tier. All right. I hope you're right. And by the way, the weather here is pretty nice. Well, it's not nice in the summer, and the winter isn't,

let's put it this way, it's not L.A. or South Beach, that's for sure. Two places that tend to be desirable. But Miami wasn't always all that desirable. I know. The young franchise. But really what the Wizards

are battling against is 45 years, not on the butt, maybe 40, let me rephrase, 35 of the previous 45 years had been this total mismanagement of the franchise. And that's not a shot on Ted Leonis. The majority

of this occurred during Abe Poland's watch. And I know it's sacrilegious to criticize Abe Poland because he was by all accounts a tremendous person, love this community,

treated the people within the wizards and the caps like family. That's all true. But how many false starts have the bullets and the wizards endured over the past 45 years? Most of them during his tenure. Too many to count. And I'm from here like you are.

I remember when they build Jeff Rulin and Rick Mahorn as the next great front court in the NBA. The Beef Brothers. Well, they were great, but they weren't. I loved those guys, but they were. Dan Roundfield, Gus Williams, join them. Oh, yeah. I remember that. I remember those teams.

Yeah. Drafting Mugsy and Mnuch in the same draft. And Mugsy himself on his own documentary by the NBA, it said it was like a circuit. Yeah, it was. And then how the Chris Weber, Juan Howard promised, when they were supposed to be the next great up-and-coming team,

anointed by MJ himself, that imploded. And then John Wall and Bill, they were onto something, and then John Wall's career imploded due to injury. And there's no trade clause for brand. That was, yeah. It didn't help the reputation. But my point is that this is what the current front office has been working against,

these headwinds. And once they overcome them, then it will be smoother failing, but this is what they're dealing with. It's not five years of ineptitude. It's the majority of ineptitude over the 45 previous years. Well, let me just say. Abe Poland single-handedly revitalized our city with the building of Capital One Arena in Chinatown. It started a process that, you know, today you can see.

a city of neighborhoods. We were never a city of neighborhoods before Capitol 1 arena was built in Chinatown. With that said, it was just too much of a mom and pop operation for all of the years that he owned the team. And it was small time in terms of the management of the team. There's no doubt about it. But we can move on from all of that. I want to find out what you think of these two championship series. We'll do that right after these words from a few of our sponsors. We're down to the final four in the NBA playoffs, and my bookie is the place to wager on either Oklahoma City, San Antonio, out west, or Knicks Cavs in the east. My bookie's got everything you need. The series prices currently, Oklahoma City is a minus 265 favorite over San Antonio.

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DC Reload is the promo code. We continue with Josh Robbins from The Athletic. Let's start out west, Oklahoma City or San Antonio. I think it's going to be OKC, but I'm not confident at all. And I'm only giving them the edge because of their experience. But that's going to be one amazing series. Nick's Cabs. I'm going to say the Cavs because going to be,

Going into the playoffs, that's the team I annoyance is the eventual Eastern Conference chants. But, and they are now finally seen to have congealed or coheed, whatever the word is. Yeah. And then I think, oh, I think whoever comes out of the West is going to win the title. Yeah, I do too. But there's going to be two excellent theories because the Knicks are at their best as well. And I think if there's one X-factor, there are two X-factors in the whole thing right now. Jalen Williams, Jalen Williams from Santa Clara and not Jalen Williams.

You know, the former all-MBA 13 player, Jalen Williams, is he going to be healthy? Is he going to be healthy-ish enough and in rhythm enough to be who he can be for O.K.C. And then O.G. Ananobe, who I think is the most criminally underrated player. Yeah. As a two-way player for sure. No doubt. Last one, this July, give me the biggest headline. I'm sure. Every July we get surprised by something. Give me the biggest headline of the offseason. Oh, man, if I knew that already, I would have written it. Well, you'd be talking. I'm giving you an idea for your next column. Give me your hunch on the biggest headlines of the off season. What's number one? well where does yonis go i think that's the key offseason storyline and then what does lebron decide to do uh if i again if i knew the answers to those questions

uh i'd be i'm not right i wasn't i wasn't asking for the answer key i was just asking for just a hunch because i think this could be really entertaining Janice, of course, LeBron, of course. Does Yokic stay in Denver? If he does, who joins him in Denver? What does Minnesota do? Because they're clearly not in position to contend with San Antonio in Oklahoma City. What is the Boston situation with Tatum and Jalen Brown?

All of that stuff is going to be really, it's going to be a very interesting offseason when you consider that it's not an offseason filled with Grasen Brown. free agents. I think, A, you answered your own question on some of the great storylines here. I didn't give my number one, though. I didn't give my number one, my stunner. Well, let's say that for a second, if you don't mind me hijacking the flow of the show. Please.

You know, some of what is driving this is the new CBA. Right. The super punitive second apron, the dangers of being a repeater luxury tax team as well. And that's driving a new age of parody in the league. For example, OKC, one of their breakout players this year is AJ Mitchell. When it's time for him to re-up, it's not that OKC doesn't have the money to pay him, it's that if you do pay him and you put yourself so far into the tax that you can't maneuver the rest of your roster. So that's part of what's driving this.

but I'm eager to hear what you think is the biggest. Well, let me just say this. What's so interesting about A.J. Mitchell for O.C., they've only played eight playoff games because they've got two sweeps. But I think he's either their second or third leading score. Obviously, no Jalen Williams through these first eight games. But it's like he is so smooth and it's just like, oh, my God, they've got another one. Like, their depth and the versatility of their players is so impressive.

I think they're going to win the title again. I mean, I don't feel as confident as I did before the postseason like you because Wembe is one of one. We've never seen anything like them. And who knows what's going to happen. I can't wait to watch over the next week and a half, two weeks, because I think it's going to be a long series. But I just thought about him and it's like I've been watching him.

I'm like, where did he come from? Like, it's just like every year it's like they've got another player or two that ends up being, you know, a player of note. Like a guy that I have followed since he got drafted by OKC at a Maryland, because I'm a turp is Aaron Wiggins. Aaron Wiggins was getting big time run last year. He was basically one of the first two subs off the bench during their championship run. He doesn't even play anymore.

It's just, it's interesting to watch that team, and they've got all those picks in the future. And I think every year we're going to be like, oh, there's another guy that wasn't on the team last year that's really good. I actually don't have, I mean, I guess the number one, like if it's a shocker, I'll give you a shocker. You ready for a shocker? Kauai Leonard ends up in Denver to team up with Yokic. Yokic has to have somebody else, and he's got to have another closer.

And I'm not saying that he gets added to Murray and Yokic. Maybe Gordon's gone because they can't count on him because of his health. He's been injured for two straight post seasons. You know, Peyton Watson, who knows. But Kauai just had an unbelievable season and had nothing around him, especially after they traded Hardin. And that to me makes a lot of sense for Denver next year because I think then you could say they've got a shot against O KC in San Antonio. But to me, the most interesting story of this postseason, and I said it before the postseason began, Yokic and his legacy, I think, took a bit of a hit. Not that he isn't a first ballot Hall of

Famer, not that we're not going to always think about him as one of the greatest to ever do it. But after 23, Josh, we were thinking championships plural, and we're going to talk about Yokic as one of the three or four greatest centers of all time. And he has not been out of the second. round since. He got beat by a Minnesota team that did not have Anthony Edwards or DeVincenzo or DeSumo in game six. And I think he needed to strap that team to its back, his back, and get him at least into a series with the Spurs. And he didn't do that. So Denver's got to help him out somehow, and it's got to be a big move. That's the team that I think does something big. I can't wait to see how it resolved.

And we were talking about A.J. Mitchell, I had to go. While you were talking, I looked him up. He was a eighth pick in the second round in 2024. Yeah, right. And so the Thunder got him in a draft night draft rights trade from the Knicks. So this is part of the Thunder's genius. They identified people who are undervalued by the rest of the league. Jalen Williams

Yeah, both of them. Or example. Aaron Wiggins is another. And that's part of their genius is that they find these guys and they see who they might be able to become and then they help them get there.

And it helps that they have a generational foundational foundational talent in SGA and arguably a second with Holmgren. and that's part of what you're starting to see here with the way Dawkins draft. Right. But they've got to land on and OKC didn't draft SGA as we know. That was part of the Paul George trade.

They traded for him. But they have to land on a true MVP candidate four or five, six years down the road. Or they're just going to be in that mix of Cleveland. I'm not saying that Cleveland being in the Eastern Conference Finals isn't, you know, enticing. But, you know, Toronto and the Knicks and they're not going to be, you know, I think I've done this with you before. I do it with a lot of the time, especially this time of year. But if you go back, you know, we're now on basically 21, 22 years of an NBA championship team having to have a debatable top five player on its roster. The 2004 Pistons didn't have one.

You could argue the 2014 Spurs didn't have one because Kauai was not a top five player, even though we won MVP at that point. He was too young, and Duncan was sort of fading, and Genoblee wasn't a top five player. Tony Parker made, I think, all NBA second team, but he wasn't a top five player in the league. Every other champion, though, has had, without question, a debatable top five player on its first.

roster, and I'm talking about to win it all, you can get to the finals without one, but you can't win it all without one. And we're headed very likely towards another one of those years, because it'll either be SGA or Wembe. I don't think the Eastern Conference champion has a shot against either one of those two teams. So the Wizards have to figure out how to land on that player, or you just might have a lot of seasons of 44, 46, maybe a couple of 52 win seasons, maybe a two-seed. Maybe a two-seed. one year, maybe a three-seat another year, maybe an Eastern conference finals, and maybe you get

lucky and you make a big run to the finals. But you're not going to win it all without a top five player. Sorry for hijacking the conversation, but that's what they have to land on to make all of this really

worth it, although I think already in many ways the process and what they're doing was the only way to do it if you were the wizards. So I can appreciate what they've done so far. So you and I agree on the general principles here. You have to have a foundational player. I don't think he has to be a top five guy.

I do think, and the sad I always, you know, the sad I researched and the one that I always bring up in my articles is the very last team not to have an all-MBA player on its roster who made the all-MBA team in the year at won its title was the 88-89 Detroit Pistons. That's the last team. Isaiah, are you saying an all-NBA top three teams? Any one of the three teams? Correct.

Isaiah wasn't in 88? Dumares wasn't? Correct. Wow. And, of course, they're Hall of Famers, so it's not like they're great players. So you have to have to have one of those guys. And yes, I understand that this is kind of a circular argument that one of the reasons why they are on the all-NBA teams is that their team was good in the first place. Yeah.

But you simply have to have foundational level players. Yeah. But what I gave you was not necessarily all-NBA first team, because I think, Or second or third. That's my argument. First, second or third. Yeah, yeah. But what I'm saying is the year in which the champion was crowned, a player on that team would be debated as a top five player in the league. And in most cases, that player was an all NBA first team selection. I think there are a couple of situations where it was all NBA second team. Like I think the Celtics in 2000, the Celtics that won at no eight, I'm not sure Garnett was actually a, a first team. I don't think Rondo or Pierce were. I've gone through this list before. It's really the 04 Pistons did not have a clear-cut top five player and the 14 spurs. Everybody else, the Steph teams, obviously the LeBron teams in Miami and Cleveland, the Toronto team with Kauai, the Dallas team with Dirk, the Kobe teams, the Yonis team, the Yokic team, you know, even last year,

you know, or two years ago. Well, last year at SGA, but two years ago, Tatum was a debatable top five player in the league. So to win it. Now, you know, you may not have to have one of those to get to the finals. So you and I have kind of looked at this thing many different ways. And the bottom line is you need a great player. You need a player that's at least in the MVP conversation to win the whole thing. correct yes you and i are in a court on that and maybe one of the closest anyone who's gotten

to not being that was last spring where the Pacers got to a game no 100% but they didn't they didn't like and lucca didn't win it the year before you know and he got him there um but but he didn't win it the year before and jimmy butler although you could argue that jimmy butler was a top five playoff performer for the heat. Both years, they made the finals, including in the bubble against the Lakers and in the, they lost to the nuggets, right? Yeah, the heat lost to the nuggets in 23. But yeah, no, it was close last year. It was certainly close. And maybe if Halliburton doesn't get hurt, I don't know. I didn't think Indiana had a shot in game seven. I remember feeling that way. I was already super shocked that it had gone seven. They earned it.

though. Right. That's right. Yeah, it's an interesting, it's an interesting league. And you know, maybe that, what should end the conversation is just Wembe. Like, you're a big NBA fan. I am too. And I've tried to tell my listeners who are casual sports fans, he's worth watching people. Like right now in sports, team sports, I don't know that there's anybody like him. I guess Otani is in the conversation, but in terms of being totally unique, Wembe, in all four professional sports, he's the guy for me. What about you? I agree with you. And I think that one area where those of us even who cover the league don't fully appreciate is just how dominant he is defensively. And I'm one of the guys who, who,

voted for him as defensive player of the year. He was a unanimous defensive player of the year winner, and I intellectually know how great he is defensively, but I'm not sure I fully understand how different he is from everybody else. He's that good. He's that different. And it's like I always used to say, you can see, you know how good LeBron is

from watching him on TV, but you have to see him up close to realize just the velocity and the power with which he plays. And in other words, you may know how great someone is, but you don't really internalize it until you really, really focus on it. And that's what I would recommend people who appreciate greatness to watch, is to try to ascertain. just how much of a defensive force he is, in addition to all the abilities that he has on offense, which are impressive. Yeah. During the early portion of the Minnesota series, I made the comment, I can't remember watching a game in which one person altered more shots near and around the rim.

You can't shoot a normal shot near the rim with him on the floor. So the key, obviously, is you've got to put a team out on the floor, which forces him to move away from the rim. And maybe Oklahoma City can do it with Hartenstein and with Holmgren. We'll see. But that's got to be the goal is to move him away from the basket and force him to guard on the perimeter, which, by the way, he's pretty good.

good at two at 7-5. He can really move his feet and he can stay in front of people. But the Gobert matchup was unfair. And they were much better when Gobert wasn't in the game. That's why, by the way, Josh, I actually thought that Denver would have been a better matchup for San Antonio because Yokic could pull Wembe away from the bucket. But they didn't get there. And Minnesota was impressive, man. They were an impressive, physical, defensive basketball team

that was fun to watch over the last three weeks, three and a half weeks, whatever it's been now. But clearly not enough for Wembe Nama. Thanks for doing this, as always. Really appreciate it. We'll talk right around the draft. Hopefully, I'll reach out and we'll see

what's going on at that point. But I'm with you. I think it's DeBanza. And it's still early yet. Each of the four guys has got to come in here to Washington. They really need to sit down with each of them. And not just a cursory conversation to try to fully understand who each person is to the degree that you can ahead of time. That's part of it too. And they say that they don't have someone, that they haven't decided who they would pick yet at number one.

And I think that that's true. I don't think that that's the smokescreen. I think that really trying to get to know the guys as well as they possibly can does go into their thinking. Thanks for doing this, Josh. Appreciate it. My pleasure. Josh Robbins, everybody, from The Athletic. That'll do it for today.

Back tomorrow with Tommy.