The Kevin Sheehan Show - WFT QB & NFL Playoff Predictions

Episode Date: January 21, 2022

Kevin had a conversation with Ben Standig/The Athletic today about surprise...the Washington Football QB search! Some very interesting thoughts, nuggets, and predictions from both guys on what Washington will do. They also discussed the four NFL Divisional playoff games and debated which team and player is under the most pressure this weekend. Kevin finished up the show with three NFL "Smell Test" picks.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show. Here's Kevin. All right. On this Friday, on the show, I've got three smell test picks coming up on the four divisional round games.

Which divisional round game result would surprise you the most and maybe a bold prediction or two on the games as well. The show today is presented by MyBooky. Go to mybooky.com or mybooky.8G. and use my bonus code, Kevin D.C. They'll match your first deposit, dollar for dollar, all the way up to $1,000. So if you put $1,000 in to open up the account, you'll have $2,000 to gamble with. You got four games, you got four totals, you got lots of prop bets to go with each of these games.

Should be a great playoff weekend. But we're not going to start with those four games. We are going to start with my good friend Ben Standing, the athletic here at the top, and we're going to talk some Washington football team. And this was not anticipated or planned, but Ben and I were having a telephone conversation about 30 minutes ago. And I said, wait a minute, wait a minute, just stop right there. Let's just do this conversation on the podcast because it's, at least for us, was an interesting conversation. And so I'm going to start the conversation with what we eventually came around to

on the radio show and then in our private conversation moments ago. And that is, on this January 21st, if you had to give your best guess, and you need to be specific, but you won't be held to it, on who the quarterbacks will be on Washington's roster for opening day 2022, who would the guess be, or guesses, be? Okay, so Taylor Heineke's on the roster. I think he's on the roster still. I think Mitch Tribisky would be my guess of the random pieces out there, and then they draft somebody Day 2.

I think I said Desmond Ritter, just to name somebody, so that I would go with those three. You've got Mitch Trubisky, you've got Desmond Ritter, a day two selection, the quarterback from Cincinnati, and you've got Taylor Heineke. And I think this is where the conversation morphed into, well, why do you think Taylor Hineke?

Heineke would be on the roster, which I'll get to in a moment in a moment. Let me just tell you that my guesses are it will be Mitch Trubisky. Boy, we're really thrilling the audience with Mitch Trubisky. Mitch Trubisky, a first round quarterback, which today on January 21st, given that I won't be held to this, will be Kenny Pickett. and then a third quarterback potentially or maybe not at all to be named later but not named Taylor Heineke. And my point to you was if they sign Mitch Tribisky in free agency, and let's just say they give them a two-year deal for, I don't know, $12 million, $11 million, $5.5 a year, half of it guaranteed, whatever. it would be. And then they draft a quarterback in the first round. Well, then Taylor Heineke, if he's

on the roster, is the third string quarterback. He is not, there's no chance then for him to play. And you said to me, why do you think that would be the case? Why wouldn't Taylor Heineke be part of the mix? And that's where I would say to you, I just don't see them signing Mitch Trubisky and signing him to compete with Taylor Heineke, but you feel differently, so go ahead. Well, it's not, like, so you put me on the spot by asking who do I think. I don't necessarily view it that this will be how the world is, but we're playing a game or having fun within this game. So my thing is, so let's look at all these individually, right?

You said Taylor Heineke, what about him specifically? Last year, what did Ron Rivera tell us? That they signed Ryan Fitzpatrick with it that there would be a quarterback competition. to which I heard that and laughed and laughed and laughed. There is no way you're doing a quarterback competition with a dude that's been around as long as Fitzpatrick to give him $10 million, and the other two guys have virtually no experience, unproven, making no money,

made no sense, and that is in fact how it played out. There was no competition. In this instance, though, if you're talking about Mitch Trubisky, a guy at this point has relatively flamed out. I think people act like he's a total bum. He was a starting quarterback in the playoffs last year. And the reason why somebody like that, to me, is interesting. He was interesting to me a year ago is there is potential.

Ryan Tanna Hill is going to be in these playoffs. He was a guy that was sort of cast out by his original team and is developed into a solid, if not pretty good, starting quarterback with good pieces around him. Maybe Tribisky has some potential there. We'll get to Tribisky more in a second. But I wouldn't view it like he's the starter, and I'm not going to have a competition. And I know you're saying, well, that's where the Kenny Pickett guy comes in, the rookie. So my thing is that I get that we're making a projection.

I have no idea that they're going to get a quarterback. I know every single mock draft right now has the Washington football team taking a quarterback and arguably the first quarterback. I told people this before. These mock drafts in this case are complete nonsense in this regard. All the mock drafters are doing right now is saying, I have my own board. I want to tell the audience how I have to be the board.

These other players are all better than these quarterbacks. I'm not going to put the quarterbacks ahead of them. That's not going to be the reality when we get to April. The Washington football team at 11, I would bet good money, will not be picking the first quarterback. And because there's teams like the Panthers, the Broncos, maybe the Texans will probably not. There's like a handful of teams ahead of them who automatically could need a

quarterback, and there seems that could trade up because they're desperate. If you think Washington, Washington is not the only team desperate for a quarterback, so I don't think it's a guarantee they just sit there at 11 and get a quarterback. Therefore, I'm just sort of saying broadly, I don't see why Heineke would be gone, because, again, we're playing this game, but I'm not convinced that, like, there will be a quarterback that absolutely love at 11, nor is any veteran they're going to bring in such a lock to start the way at least the Westwood Prince Patrick that Heineke, not think he would be in the mix to start, but why not keep him around? He can play, you can keep three quarterbacks

in this modern era with the practice squad rules they are. So it's not an advocate, it's not advocating He can't keep you play or to start. It's to say, why would I get rid of a guy when it feels to me like it's very dicey to imagine who else they're going to get in here on any level of quarterback. So I think we have a slight disagreement then on Mitch Trubisky, not the way we feel. I'm, I'm not a Mitch Trubisky fan. I think he's better than Taylor Heineke. Okay. I do think that that's... There's much more upside there. You know, he's a bigger dude. He can make more throws. He's just as mobile. He's very athletic. I'm just not a big Mitch Trubisky fan necessarily. But I think they are. And I... But let me, let me extrapolate. If they were to sign Mitch Trubisky, then they're telling you he's

he's way above Taylor Heineke. Taylor's not our starter with Mitch Tribesky on the roster. And it sounds to me like you're thinking that maybe they're a little bit more competitive. I'm not saying that. I'm just saying, like even to your premise, Trubisky, Kenny Pickett. Ron Rivera has gone through 27 quarterbacks in the two years here. So why am I getting rid of Taylor Heeneke? He's under contract.

He's going nowhere. I can determine what I'm doing with him. So why would I get rid of him? I'm keeping three quarterbacks, at least that's what I would do. It's what they've done here the last two years. I'm keeping a third quarterback. He's already here. I'll let Kyle Allen leave.

He's a restricted free agent anyway. And that's it. And then if nothing else, if Mitch Trubisky, that guy doesn't right kill it or there's an injury, I have Taylor Heineke to go and I'm not forcing the rookie into the equation. So I just don't know why I would get rid of Taylor Enrique, regardless of how I view him. Well, Taylor Heineke is a number of him. contract next year. He's also a near $3 million cap hit in year two, just as an FYI next year, if he is on the roster. But I just, I guess my feeling is, and I don't want to make this about

Taylor Heineke, but that's kind of how we got started. And then we ended up, you know, getting into other parts of the conversation about the quarterback situation. But to me, it's like if you sign Mitch Trubisky, first of all, you know, let's just say you swing big and miss on Russell Wilson or Deshawn Watson. You swing again and miss on Jimmy Garapolo. I'm just going to throw him into Tier 2 with Derrick Carr. And maybe you've got Garoppolo below Derrick Carr. That's fine.

And then you settle on what you and I, I think, right now, agree is where they're going to end up, which is signing a veteran guy like Mitch Trubisky, which I think we both have a sense that there are people in that organization that like Mitch Trubisky, like the upside, and think that maybe, just maybe, like you said, with Ryan Tannahill, right, you know, situation that maybe they'll get a guy that was the number two overall pick that will blossom here. But the point is, if they were to sign him to a two-year deal, that's who they're, you know, it's either going to be him. And if you go down the path I go down, which is they also draft a quarterback like Kenny Pickett at number 11 or they move up to take him. I mean, even more so if they move up to take them. But if you have those two quarterbacks,

Taylor Heineke isn't playing unless both of those quarterbacks go down next year. Or, you know, that's your plan. You've made it very clear that your plan does not include Taylor Heineke. So for a near $3 million cap hit next year, I'm probably putting somebody else there. And by the way, I'm saying to Taylor, catch on with a team where you can be a legitimate backup, where you can be the backup quarterback,

and potentially play, because it's not going to be here. To me, if they signed Trubisky and draft a quarterback in the first round, Taylor Hineke is like number three in a distant third. And oh, by the way, well, let me mention one other thing. If the young guy they draft in the first round, in my scenario, yours is a second round guy, if he's not ready and Trubisky's not your guy, you figure out Trubisky's really not, you know, good enough, then you drafted the wrong guy.

And now if you come back to Taylor Heineke without giving that young guy an opportunity because at that point you'd have to, boy, you've really screwed things up. Really screwed things up. Yeah, I don't think we're saying anything that differently. I just think we're reviewing it differently. I don't think Taylor Heineke is in the mix for anything

if they bring in another veteran. But what I'm saying is, why if I'm watching it, am I getting rid of a guy? I don't care. They have tons of cab space. If they get to the point where, like, they don't have cap space, where all of a sudden they've done a bunch of big moves and now they are up against it. Okay, well, now maybe that's a different conversation. There's zero reason to get rid of this guy.

I mean, what would be the point? They've gone through all these quarterbacks. And again, at least Patrick, of course, had an injury week one, but typically had been, you know, durable enough. And there was no sense that he would not be the starter. why would I assume that Mitch Trubisky would be my guy? The only reason I think that we haven't said that would be the variable is, again, like you said before, people are driving off the road thinking the idea that Washington's end plan could be a guy like Trubisky,

here's even crazier, he could have multiple teams bidding on him because if none of the bigger names move, the Rogers, the Wilson, the cars, whatever, like Trabisky is as interesting as anybody else out there, Bridgewater, Dalton, what have you. So he could have multiple teams, and at that point, maybe his agent says to somebody, hey, look, if you want him to come to your team, money aside, he's your starter, period, end of story.

And at that point, somebody might have to say, all right, well, I guess we'll have to, we're going to have to sort of commit to something here to a degree, right? That would be, to me, one reason why there would be no debate. But other than that, I don't know what Mr. Trubisky is, and I'm not saying Taylor Hineke would start. I'm saying at least I know he can play for me. So therefore, why do I have to get rid of him

unless I've started suddenly up against it from a cap perspective? I just don't think you'd enter into the conversation with Mitch Trubisky if you thought there was a chance that Taylor Hineke was better than Mitch Trubisky. That's all. But by the way, I want to get off Taylor Hineke because it's really not the point of the conversation, whether he's on the roster or not. We understand that they're trying to do much better. I'm not even, by the way, suggesting that Mitch Trubisky is the answer.

I would say he's got much more upside than Taylor Heineke does, and I'm not a big Mitch Trubisky guy. But you led to something that I was going to ask you next. Mitch Trubisky last year, for whatever reason, Washington didn't sign him. They chose Ryan Fitzpatrick over Mitch Trubisky. I don't know if that's the way it should be described. Mitch Trubisky ended up being a backup quarterback to Josh Allen where he had no chance to to start for $2.5 million last year.

And we think that Washington was interested last year, and then again, perhaps prior to the trade deadline this year, but they chose Ryan Fitzpatrick for $10 million. So maybe they just chose Fitzpatrick over Trubisky, even though Trubisky probably would have been cheaper, and there are people, I think, in the organization that like Trubisky. Now, fast forward to this year. You make a really good point.

what's all the sudden Trebisky's market this year? It's bigger than it was last year. There are more teams in dire need of a quarterback that can come in and play on teams that are going to be perceived as close to being ready to win. You know, Pittsburgh as an example. You know, the Panthers, the Vikings, if they move on from Kirk Cousins' contract. You know, some of these teams that maybe you were now in competition with on Mitch Trubisky. I mean, again, people are steering themselves off the road as we're talking about

competition for Mitch Trubisky. But what do you think Mitch Trubisky gets in this upcoming offseason? Because he's probably going to get a chance to be a starter somewhere. Yeah, I mean, I don't know what he's going to get financially. I would imagine even for his own side, you probably want to get an opportunity to play and not lock yourself into a longer-term deal in case you do suddenly become some sort of Tana Hill Reclamation type project. But yeah, I mean, that's the thing. We talk about Washington all the time because that's the team we focus on. There are tons of teams that are in this spot.

I can make a case that Denver and Carolina are even more desperate to get a quarterback than Washington seems to be. And there's not enough. Pittsburgh, for sure. Right. Well, as an organization, Pittsburgh can me, never comes across as desperate. But they, yes, if Mike Tomlin's talking up, the two guys on the roster, including

Dwayne Haskins, as potential starters. We know kind of where they're at, Mason, Rudolph, and Haskins. Yeah, there's tons of teams that really, really need a quarterback, and so, who knows, and by the way, like, here's the thing, right? We just say the draft, the draft, I thought Mel Kuyper the other day

say that we all know what people here think of Daniel Jones, right? If we said, forget Trebisky, Washington was going to get Daniel Jones, they would equally drive off the road, even though he always looked like, you know, Farrb or somebody facing Washington. But that said,

Kuiper said the other day that when he looked at this draft, he doesn't think the Giants would take a quarterback, they pick ahead of Washington, because Daniel Jones is better than the quarterback's in this draft. Now, so ponder that. It's not like anybody is saying

these guys are great. By the way, every time you see Kenny Pickett or some quarterback going to Washington as the first quarterback at 11, that is a massive red flag. quarterbacks are any good, they go high. And if they're not, it means they're being over-drafted because of the position most of the time. I would venture to guess if you look at people's big boards, no quarterback is in the top 20, would be my guess. And maybe not even that high.

Yeah, but the final result isn't necessarily reflective of where they got drafted in the first round. You're saying that basically, if people aren't taking Kenny Pickett as an example before 11, and nobody thought that highly of them. I would agree with that. But it doesn't mean that they're right about Kenny Pickett. Oh, sure. I mean, Kirk Cousins, that Crescott. Oh, no.

Forget even them. I mean, just look at, you know, you know, I mean, Herbert went six. I understand that. But he was an afterthought to the other two. I mean, we went, you know, Josh Allen was seven, and Lamar Jackson was 32. But Josh Allen seemingly was only liked by one team.

I mean, there was so much. much negative stuff about him. But go ahead. But at least in those cases, there were other quarterbacks picked. So whether they made the mistake with Herbert versus Tua, that's one thing. But the point is that the war teams wanting a quarterback. Mahomes and DeShon Watson went after Trubisky, right? Obviously, that's insane.

But at least there was a team higher going quarterback. I'm saying if the first quarterback is 11, nobody likes anything. Nobody likes any of these guys, if not a single other team, is making a move to pick a quarterback before 11. Yeah, I'm looking through this. By the way, it's an interesting way to look at it. I did a bunch of stuff the other day where I talked about all of the quarterbacks taken over a 10-year period. And they hit rates on finding a franchise quarterback. It's like 117 quarterbacks were taken from 2011 to 2020.

I didn't count last year's draft because we don't know yet. we may not know on any of the 2020 or 2019 yet, but we've got a stronger, you know, feeling about, you know, guys like Herbert and Burrow. But anyway, 10 out of 117 were franchise quarterbacks, and that's an 8.5% hit rate. In the first round, it was, it was 8 out of 32, quarterbacks, 8 you could consider franchise quarterback, 25% hit rate. And you had to go into the top 11 before you got to almost a 1-3 shot of landing. on a franchise quarterback. It was like 31.8% or something. But what you just said, and I'm looking through this, to find when a quarterback, the first quarterback was taken, you know, at a later

pick in the first round. Like 2021, quarterback number one overall. Same thing in 2020. Same thing in 2019. Same thing in 2018. In 2017, Tribiski went two. 2016, Goff went one. 2015, Winston went one. 2014. Bortles went. three. 2013, though, E.J. Manuel was the first quarterback taken, and it wasn't until 16. So if Kenny Pickett, or if the first quarterback is taken at 11, it'll be the latest in the first round a quarterback's been taken since 2013. And, you know, E.J. Manuel did not work out. By the way, man, you really, that is. that is such an outlier overall because quarterbacks get taken number one almost every single year.

And if they're not, they're taken super high. But in 2000, you know, after what I just mentioned, which is E.J. Manuel, you've got to go back to 2000 to find Chad Pennington taken at 18 overall in the first round. Every other year a quarterback's essentially taken one, two, or three overall. to your point. Yeah, no. Yeah, yeah, for for sure. And by the way, it's again, you could make the case some years, it's just the way that the draft works, those teams don't need it. Either they haven't established one or like the case of like the Jets, they drafted a guy in Zach Wilson last year. I'm saying that's not the case this time. There's a bunch of teams picking ahead of Washington that arguably could make, could make that move. And their teams obviously picking behind them that like you could take, you know, could trade up. And that's the thing. The level of. desperation out there across the league is notable. So to me, yeah, the idea that like, all that's happening right now with these mock draft is, it's way too early. By the way, as you and I are talking, I'm seeing reports that it looks like the Giants may

have settled on Bill's assistant GM, Joe Sheen, as their guy. And that would be the first hire that anybody has made this cycle of any significant coach or GM. So once all those hires start to fill out, then we'll have a better feel for which teams are feeling good about what they have or feeling that they want to move up, things on those lines. And that's why these mock drafts right now, I mean, I do them too. They're fun.

But the idea that the first quarterback is going 11 is either completely way off for what will happen or a screening red flag to suggest nobody likes these quarterbacks. Yeah, the funny thing about the Joe Shane hire from Buffalo to the Giants, and he's very well respected, is that he works for Brandon Bean. and God, it was only a couple of years ago that I was hearing things that there were people in Buffalo's front office, including Bean, that Washington was very interested in. And there was somebody else there on the business side that I'm forgetting his name right now, that New Snyder pretty well. But I actually think that, you know, based on what I've read, that's a good hire for them for the Giants. Now, by the way, that's an interesting point you made.

You made it on the radio show this morning with me as well. Usually at this point, I think with all of the openings, both GM and coach, we've had more activity. Man, there just seems to be a long process of really being, well, the process has been very methodical with just about everybody so far. Hell, I mean, in many ways, the process of firing Joe Judge was somewhat methodical, you know. And if Mike McCarthy doesn't make it, that will have been a methodical process as well. So anyway, I think, by the way, back to the question that I asked you, you know, last year Andy Dalton, you know, now they didn't know it at the time because they had not yet drafted Justin Fields. And they had to trade up to draft Justin Fields. But Dalton was signed to a deal that was worth $10 million a year because they thought he was going to be the same.

starter. My point is that if you do sign Mitch Trubisky and you both of us have predicted that, I think Trubisky is going to get $6, $7, $8 million a year on the open market. And it might be more than that. And it might have to be a multi-year deal. And I just think that that is where they end up landing. I hope that's not where they land. I want to make myself really clear, I hope they land on Deshawn Watson or Russell Wilson or Aaron Rogers. That's That's where I hope they land. But I don't know if they will. All right, I want to get to something else that you and I were talking about.

And then we'll get to some of the NFL games as well. And you can stick around for that if you've got time. Don't forget, by the way, to follow Ben on Twitter at Ben Standing. Subscribe to the athletics so you can read him and listen to his podcast, Standig Room Only. Same place you get my podcast. Anywhere you get at Spotify, Apple, et cetera. Mike Silver is a long-time NFL writer, reporter, columnist for so many different outlets.

And as many of you know, Mike signed on as an independent contractor contributor to the Washington football team's website. And the reason that he did that was he was asked by Ron Rivera to do that. He and Ron Rivera go back to Cal Berkeley. They were in school together. They've been longtime friends. we've had Mike on the podcast before we've had him on the radio show. But Mike wrote a story for the team's website yesterday, which included, you know, I think whenever Mike writes for the website,

you have to read it because you know that he's been in conversation with Ron Rivera. And so, you know, what can you learn from it? Well, there are a couple of things that I'm going to mention here. And I think, you know, I want to get Ben's reaction to it to a certain degree as well. First of all, I find it really interesting because I don't know that I've seen this before on a Mike Silver column, but at the very top, he writes, The opinions expressed in this article, do not reflect those of the team. Okay.

The story is titled, Washington faces franchise defining questions ahead of pivotal offseason. And the conversation is all about the search for a quarterback, you know, and I'm going to read a couple of the sentences slash paragraphs from the story. story. He writes, sometime in the next several months, Ron Rivera, he says he, but he's talking about Ron Rivera, expects to address the most important position on his football team in a definitive and inspired manner, giving Washington's fans and the men in his locker room a reason to get excited. There are many, many potential targets, some of which I'm told it would be better not to mention by name, lest the people in charge of the teams for which they are currently under contract

take umbrage and unleash the NFL's tampering police. So what he's saying right there is he can't really mention the names of the quarterbacks that they might be interested in because it might, because he's writing for the team's website, it might, you know, somehow infringe on a level of tampering with a player that's under contract with another team. Okay. So he says, told it would be better not to mention by name. And then he says, so no, I won't be specifically citing any accomplished quarterbacks who may or may not be married to a famous singer, engaged to a famous actress, or infamously shelved by a slew of civil lawsuits. Well, we understand, most of us do. He's talking about Russell Wilson, Aaron Rogers, and Deshawn Watson. He doesn't

say it. He doesn't explicitly mention the name, but he kind of tells you the names. Then he says, nor will I explicitly ponder the possibility that if a coaching change happens in a city celebrated for its nightlife, a certain quarterback may not stay in said city, as I did in a recent column for another website. Now, I don't know what recent column for another website he's talking about, but he's talking about Derek Carr there. Okay, a city celebrated for its nightlife, coaching change happening, potentially, et cetera. And then he says the following in the following paragraph. I know I know so much for clarity. Well, I think he was pretty clear there personally, if that was sarcasm on so much for clarity. It's coming, however, because Rivera, along with general manager, Martin Mayhew,

EVP and player personnel football, Marty Herney, they're determined to work toward a franchise defining decisions. Such a move the coach believes will create a sense of stability inside the building, sending a message to players and fans that the status quo is unacceptable. I actually thought that that line, along with the earlier one that I read, you know, definitive inspired manner giving the fans and the men in his locker room a reason to get excited. But, you know, for the team's website to have somebody write that the status quo is unacceptable and we are going to make a move to create stability and send a message

to players and fans that the status quo is unacceptable, you know, this isn't a big reveal, Ben, right? We all understand. Ron's said as much that quarterback is the number one priority. clearly. He goes on to also mention quarterbacks in the draft, he mentions their names that could be on the radar. He also once again mentions via trade, you know, there's another standout quarterback who may also fit into the category of, you know, the guy with the girlfriend, the guy with, you know, Sierra, the guy with the famous model girlfriend, which is Rogers,

and the guy facing a slew of lawsuits, which is Watson. He also writes there are at least three decorated passes, including two previous Super Bowl winners, whose potential desire to play elsewhere has serviced numerous media reports over the past year, each of whom would theoretically command a steep price. There's another standout quarterback who may also soon fit into this category, according to my aforementioned report for the other website, and Washington could try to, ahum, uh-huh, roll the dice.

Vegas reference by dealing for him. We're talking about Derek Carr. However, there's no guarantee that any of these quarterbacks would ultimately relocate. And then the last thing he writes that is of some import, if you even believe this is of importance. He writes, there are quarterbacks on NFL rosters with less star power than the aforementioned, you know, who could be acquired via trade. I won't mention specific names, but a former number one overall pick and a quarterback who started first team and a Super Bowl might fit the bill. I think he's talking about Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo there, or in free agency, among those who would be available, James Winston and Mitchell Tribusky.

So, after that long setup of reading from Michael Silver's story, did you have a reaction to any of what he wrote? I think I have more of a reaction to the reaction of this. You know, like, I get it. Like, I'm in this business. You're in this business. and maybe we kind of see how the sausage is made a little bit, I guess. But when I see people reacting to this as if it is anything other than a mouthpiece story, I'm just sort of baffled.

Like, forget that Mike Silver is a national writer of some renown who's worked for Sports Illustrated, the NFL network, and things like that. If it was anybody, an intern, anybody with a byline over there, they're not offering their own opinion on squat. They're not offering their own opinion on what pizza to get, because there's a sponsor deal. Nobody is offering an opinion over there that is outside of any line that they don't want to color it in. So to that end, if Mike Silver is saying anything, it's because somebody over there is saying it.

So like the idea that he's, in other words, he's not offering takes ever. He's going by what is being suggested, which to your point, that does make it some sort of interesting, except for the fact that, again, I, maybe I'm just too in the weeds. I've been saying they're going to go for a veteran the whole time. You pointed this out to me several times during the year. Back in the after the Denver game, the column I wrote for the athletic was, stop arguing or worrying about the minutia. All that matters is the ownership and they don't have a quarterback.

You mean like we could spend a chunk of time on Heineke. I wrote Heineke off in week eight at a point when everybody was saying maybe he's the guy still because that was sort of, you know, Valver was at least leaving that. open. I was going to get out of here. Not happening. Whatever. So the idea that Mike Silver, the internal guy,

is saying they got to make a big swing. I mean, I guess I would say no, duh. Like, I mean, the only, and again, when you look at the calendar, the draft comes last. So you can sit here and say, you want to draft the quarterback, but that's, that's it. If you wait until that happens, you've already missed out on probably all the main stuff that's going to happen with for agents of your

trades. If you have the first pick, and there's a Trevor Lawrence, and maybe that's like a different deal, you're picking 11. I mean, you have no idea what the board's going to look like. So, it doesn't mean anything to me at all. It just sort of baffled it when I see people saying on Twitter, great column, great takes, I'm like, there's no columns, there's no takes. He's not writing one single thing that is not authorized by anybody in that building. So, yes, all along, it's been pretty obvious, and just to keep, just because I know what I have done, at the last press conference and Ron Rivera talked about the idea of would we he's I guess he's inferring to a degree the media the fans and maybe ownership are you going to give me time if a draft a rookie

you're going to give me the time for this to play out and my response to him was in the press conference Ron that doesn't matter what matters is how much pressure do you feel because you've now personally had four consecutive seasons under 500 he pointed out to me they won a division I'm like okay cool but that's what matters and that's why to me the veteran and rat is definitely the way they want to go. As we discussed earlier, it doesn't mean it will work out because it's not a great class of available quarterbacks and other teams need them too. But, yeah, I didn't take anything in that thing as revelatory.

I've just still kind of amazed that people don't get kind of what's going on here. First of all, you're reminding me of the conversation after the Denver game, which was so on point in the moment because I had just come on and declared the competitive portion of the season over, and now it's all about whether or not they can go find a quarterback. And the other thing, too, is really, like when you think about this organization, and we all in this little bubble that we're in and talking about the team and talking about the minutia of the team on a daily basis, the bottom line is there's a big picture. You know, the macro is the owner and the quarterback situation. And then all of the other stuff goes, as Coach

Thompson used to say, you got to count seven spots until you get to whatever is next most important. It's like, as long as this owner's here, and as long as you don't have your franchise quarterback, you can forget about anything being sustained other than suck because that's the only sustained possibility. Winning is not a possibility. And so finding either a new owner or finding the franchise quarterback, you know, gives you a chance. You know, nothing else is going to give you a chance. So that's one thing. Number two, specific to what you said about Silver's column, I do agree with you. Like, obviously, this is on the team's website, okay? He's writing for the team's website, and he probably has the closest relationship with Ron Rivera of anybody in local or maybe

national media. I'm guessing. I don't know. There may be others out there. And so. They went to college together for people who aren't familiar with the backstory. Like when Mike Silver was hired, like it was a very much of a college reunion between Ron Rivera, his wife, and Silver. Yeah, and he talked about that. He also wrote a very good story, and I remember having him on, when Ron Rivera was waiting in the wings for a potential new job, and it was only days prior to Washington hiring him, where Silver did this long piece on Rivera and Rivera's career in Carolina. and what he would be looking for, and ultimately, you know, sort of predicted that Washington would be the place because Ron liked the roster. You know, that was one of the things. I don't think Ron Rivera, this is as an aside, I don't think Ron Rivera would be in Washington if it wasn't for a roster that he looked at, along with the number two overall pick in the 2020 draft.

And he thought to himself, I can actually turn this thing around fairly quickly. I can get a lot more out of what they have than the previous coach. did, especially on defense. Now, we'll see if he's right or wrong. Right now, he's 14 and 19 in two years. So I don't think there was a big reveal here, but I think there were a couple of things that were confirmed. Number one, the status quo at quarterback is not acceptable. Not that we thought that that was, you know, anything other than that was the case.

But we've now heard Ron Rivera, whether it was his interview with the junkies or with me last week or with JP where he laughed about, you know, the need for a quarterback. Well, of course, that's the understatement of the year. Like anybody that's still hanging on to this, you know, idea that, you know, they can draft somebody. They don't have to use their first round or they can draft a young quarterback. And maybe that quarterback will be good like a Desmond Ritter in the second round. But they've got Heineke and he's only had a full one year of starting. And who's to say he?

No, that wasn't their plan that last year. That may not have been what they. were even thinking at the trade deadline, and they're definitely not thinking about that now, which is also another reason I seem to think that there is a chance that Heineke won't be on the roster, but whatever. The other thing, too, I think he confirms is this veteran free agency or trade route, that they are going to swing big, aim high, that the big splash, you know, as he writes a franchise defining move,

a move that will create a sense of stability inside the building, sending a message to players and fans that the status quo is unacceptable. You know, writing about the spark that it would give to the franchise, et cetera, that speaks to, you know, not the number 11 pick overall. You know, it's like you said, they're not picking Trevor Lawrence from last year.

It speaks to a big-time swing for Russell Wilson, Aaron Rogers, Deshawn Watson, and I guess maybe Derek Carr, all four of which we don't think they'll land right now. I hope they do. That's what I hope they land on. But I think that what he's saying here and he's confirming is that they're going to swing big. And then the last part about this is that, explain this one to me, because I bet you've thought about it.

For a guy to be writing for the team's website and to tell you that he's been told not to mention any of the quarterbacks under contract by name, lest their teams that have these players under contract currently take umbrage and unleash the NFL's tampering police. Well, he doesn't mention any of those players specifically by name, but he tells you who he's talking about by saying that one of them is married to a famous singer, Russell Wilson. One of them is engaged to a famous actress, Aaron Rogers. One of them was infamously shelved by a slew of civil lawsuits, Deshawn Watson.

One of them is placed for a city that is celebrated for its nightlife. and might have a coaching change. And what was the other way he put it? Something about rolling dice. A Washington could try to roll the dice by dealing for him. I mean, he's really kind of straddling the line. Is he pushing the edge there at all? Like, I don't personally think it's a tampering thing.

And they mention at the beginning of it, the opinions expressed in this article do not reflect those of the team, but they're written on the team's website. I thought that was interesting. Did you? I feel like I'm fighting my tongue to a degree here. I mean, it just, I guess like I'm viewing this differently than others are going to view it, because obviously I'm in this space.

I'm trying to put out my own thoughts and my own information and whatever and have been writing up at this and all these types of things. And, you know, when, yeah, I mean, I do feel like it's being a little bit too cute here, the idea of like, if you just wrote the article and didn't specify anybody in particular, what would be the issue, right? Some people would say, well, what does this story even mean? You're not mentioning anybody. So he feels compelled to let you know.

Look, I'm not just dumb. Obviously, I know who the names are, but I'm telling you I can't say them. Okay, well, then it seems a bit much to me, but I don't know. The whole thing is weird, and the national writers writing for team websites is an odd dynamic that we're getting used to anyway. Who else does it? Who else does it? I know, crap, what's his name? He writes for the, he's doing some stuff for the Falcons, Steve Weish, I think.

Okay. But I haven't read any of his stuff. And, I mean, you know, Mike Silver is also a very opinionated guy, which I'm not saying it's a wrong thing. But he isn't just sort of passively writing something like on his Twitter profile is very, aggressive, we could just say, with his view. So he's not just going to sit back and have no thoughts, which is why it feels like he may be compelled to say he's not, he's not with mentioned specific names because he's not allowed to. Probably also it would be some kind of tampering what when Ron Rivera was asked about Deshaun Watson in his press conference,

he made a point to say to the reporter, well, I can't discuss anybody by name, which is, of course, has us go. Yeah. Well, you know, Silver's of a columnist than a reporter. So I'm not saying he doesn't report, but this is written more as a column, as all of his, you know, columns are supposed to have opinion injected into them. I do think that even though he suggests it, that this is not, you know, tampering.

I mean, I don't know how any, the tampering police would have a problem with this. But beyond that, I do think, like the conversations between Mike Silver and Ron Rivera, because they're probably more candid, whereas Ron Rivera is more guarded, perhaps with the rest of you guys and maybe, and us, the others that he talks to on a weekly basis

or did during the regular season. But, like, I think Ron Rivera is sitting there going, oh, man, wouldn't it be great to have Aaron Rogers? I mean, you know, we can't get Aaron. Aaron's staying in Green Bay. Russell, you know, Russell lived in Richmond, and Russell, you know, is the kind of quarterback we want because he's talked about mobility a lot.

And Russell would be, I mean, that would inject some enthusiasm. And he's a winner. You know, this guy's a leader, winner, the whole thing. And then, you know, Deshawn, man, oh, God, love to have Deshawn. But what's the cost is going to be? And what's his situation? Like, I'd love to know what the conversations are. Like, on those three, they're kind of easy.

And then I'd love to know what he actually really thinks of Derek Carr or Jimmy G. you know, sort of the next group of maybe more attainable guys. And yet I keep coming to the conclusion because I've been here and watched this up close like you have and documented it day by day for a long period of time. That Aaron Rogers, zero chance. Russell Wilson, near zero. Deshawn Watson, unless there are no other options, really low percent. Derrick Carr ain't going anywhere. Who are the Raiders going to get to replace Derrick car? Jimmy G. Probably in play. Mitch Trubisky in play. Jameson, but he's not mobile in play.

And I think the mobility thing is going to be a guy that they're looking for. And I think that's why probably we both land on here on January 21st, 2022. Mitch Trubisky and a combination of other things. You've got Desmond Ritter. I've got Kenny Pickett. Yeah, just one thing to sort of add to this. Like, one thing I appreciate what you do is you listen to what Ron Rivera and others say, and then you don't simply parrot what they say. You say, okay, well, I may agree with this, or maybe I don't, and here's my concern. Or maybe, I don't know. I don't think he's telling the whole story here.

Or maybe there was like a tone or a body language or something. You're adding that level of context, right? And I think that's important because that, to me, like there are two different ways to approach his job. One is just strictly, here's what the person said, you do with this as the consumer, however you want to. I think that can get people in the trouble on the national political level, but okay. But then when we do it here, it's the same, it's obviously like smaller stakes, but it's the same thing, right? I keep seeing people parrot the idea that Ron Rivera's selling that one reason why a good quarterback would want to come here is look at their offensive line.

Look how good their offensive lines did here. And they did, right? It was arguably the strength of the team this year. it's also likely losing their best linemen. So the idea that the line, we're just going to rubber stamp and say, this is good. And by the way, the starting center, he's coming off a significant injury. Like, you know, we'll see how that goes. Like, that to me is like, where's the context?

You've got to provide some context, not to say where Vera says this, and that's the case. And my point here is that if the person who is writing for the team website has some cloud and status, and people just take this as this is what this guy, thinks, as opposed to just parroting the line, that to me is potentially a problem. And that's why it's sort of to me a frustrating circumstance, because it isn't an independent voice. He did

write about Derek Carr situation with the Raiders. He doesn't get paid by the Raiders. Right? So whatever he's saying over there, okay, that seems like a reasonable thing. Here, it's not the case. So when people act like Mike Silver said this, I mean, I don't know. It's literally coming from inside the house. So therefore, I don't know, it just seems like a little bit odd to me that this becomes part of the conversation when it's clearly, for whatever, it doesn't matter what we're talking about, quarterbacks or, you know, anything, that it's coming from some level of bias, and I don't think people always understand that. Look, I mean, you mentioned something that just made me think of John Kimes' recent story on

ESPN.com. By the way, you know, let me mention, since we've mentioned Mike Silver and now John Ben's got a really good story on the athletic today about Kenny Pickett and is he the answer and will he be available and, you know, how anxious is Ron Rivera and could Washington realistically stand Pat at 11 and get the first quarterback? There's a lot of good stuff. But you just reminded me of Kimes column, which I referenced on the podcast yesterday with Tommy and also on the radio show this morning because I was, you know, mentioning the Justin Fields sort of kind of. information in my own mind. You and I talked about that, but we'll leave that alone. But, you know, John obviously, you know, had a conversation with somebody in the organization. And you talked about Ron, John basically, it's a good story. You know, it's Washington's faith in its roster could lead to aggressive pursuit of quarterbacks. You know, basically John saying that the offensive line strength and the playmakers and the running game could really be attractive in Washington's pursuit of like a big-time quarterback.

Well, I mean, Brandon Sheriff is more likely than not leaving. As you mentioned about the center, you know, you still have guys like Eric Flowers with one year left, I think, on his deal and whatever. And the offensive one was good. Don't get me wrong. And it was probably this, you know, one of the pleasant surprise, well, it was the pleasant surprise of this year. But in many ways, and I'm not suggesting that John is doing this. But Ron is, I think the one thing we've learned about Ron is, you know, just wait a day and the weather will change. The answers will somewhat change.

And they're kind of answers of convenience. And sometimes they're answers of perhaps looking for, you know, help. Like this is not what I mean in saying this about John's column because it's John's opinions here that he's writing that Washington can pursue this. but this is also kind of a marketing piece on ESPN for quarterbacks out there to read and say, wow, I didn't realize their offensive line was ranked that high. You know, I didn't realize that their playmakers that they had a bunch of guys like McKissick and Samuel and, you know, out. I didn't realize that they did pretty well with their run game. Maybe it's not as bad of a place.

You know, Washington does. I've mentioned this before. And Ron knows this. they are not in the order-taking business anymore when it comes to fans or players. They have to aggressively market themselves. They have to convince people that the narrative about them is either changing or has changed. Because nobody views this organization from a consumer standpoint or from within the business standpoint as a favorable situation. So Ron does his best with understanding the media a little bit to play it a little bit.

So there's probably a lot of that involved. Look, Ron's the guy that said when they didn't get Matt Stafford and they didn't really add anybody but Ryan Fitzpatrick. Look, we don't have to make the decision on the quarterback right now. We're going to build this from the inside out. We're going to build it one block at a time. We're going to build up this team so that when we add the quarterback, there's a good team around it ready to win. Which, by the way, it never works that way, okay? There's no quarterback tree that you go to to just pick the really good quarterback to go with your really good team that you've built for that quarterback.

But the point is that he was being disingenuous because they had made a trade offer for Matt Stafford. They had turned over. Yeah. This is driving me crazy all year. Every time I keep hearing people say they need to find the addresses, they tried. They did. They didn't get it, but they actually did. He did.

Like, I'm giving Rivera, I'm giving Rivera the credit. He did take a big swing. It didn't work out. And that's why one of the questions I asked him specifically at the end of the year was, what lessons have you learned? You swung and miss at Amari Cooper your first year. You swung and missed at Stafford last year. What lessons have you learned about that?

And he didn't, I don't know, fair enough with my answer or my question, but he did give something to the effect of maybe we do have to consider more, you know, moving more of our, you know, core pieces or players on the roster, things like that. So there is some of that. But, yeah, I agree. I think all this goes to play. Here's one more in that realm. Whenever the topic of the roster comes up, that things are improving.

Like, there's always a notion of something that we have built here, right? I'm not making this up, right? That's the notion that in the two years here, we've built a pretty good group, right? Am I right on that? Yeah, I think there's this, you know, there's a little bit of self-backslash. clapping on what they've built. Okay. What did you just say a second ago?

You said that before he took the job, that the reason he liked this job was he already liked the roster in place. Harry McCorn, Montes-Swett, Payne, Allen, all those guys were already here. And the ability to draft Chase Young was a big deal at number two. Right. And again, none of this is a negative on Rivera. He's got to do what he has to do. Totally by that.

No issue. I'm just saying, like, this is where context is important. and, you know, I don't know, being discerning both as a reporter and as a fan and as a radio host. And, you know, again, if you believe that their offense lines will be great, you can have that opinion. John Mastcoe did a really good job. Every time somebody got hurt, they kept filling in the gaps. You know, Sam Coghue showed some good things if he continues to ascend that you could have two pretty good tackles, plus flowers, and, you know, West Weiser, I thought was pretty reasonable, right? Last year when he filled in for sheriff and so on and so on.

So you can make the argument. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm just saying think about it. Whatever the thing is, think about what is being said to you, what is being regurgitated back to you. That includes what I say, what Kevin says everybody. Like, you know, think about it. That's all. Well, I mean, think about this to that point, too, because it's a really good one.

He did take this job in part because he liked a lot of the pieces. I mean, still right now, the best players on this team were acquired by the last group. You know, whether you want to give Kyle Smith credit for it or Jay Gruden credit for it, whomever. I mean, Terry McClorn and John Allen are the two best players on the team. You know, the best player in offense is Terry McClorn, or you could say Brandon Sheriff. And the best player on defense is John Allen. And by the way, you know, when you start digging down even further to find other good players, most of them were here. Now, I think Antonio Gibson, I love them.

I mean, you know, the fumbling problem aside, I love the potential. I love the potential of Sam Cosmy. You know, I think the Charles Leno signing was a really good signing. But, you know, so far on the draft, you know, this past first round pick of Jamon Davis looks dicey at this point, too early. And Chase Young at number two, if he doesn't end up turning it around and turning it around quickly, by the way, before you have to make the decision on pain, him. So he needs to turn it around next year and prove to be worthy of that number two overall pick. I'm not suggesting that he won't. But you're going to forever be, you know, tied to, well, you're not the only one to, you know, a draft in which you could have drafted Justin Herbert.

You know, look, the idea that they were interested in Justin Fields last year, if Justin Fields blows up and it turns into a franchise quarterback, and you needed to be more aggressive than two first rounders a third and a fifth, and really the first first rounder was just a swap between the Giants and the Bears. You know, that won't look great either. But, you know, you could say the same for a lot of other teams. I guess my only point here is that their best

players were here when they got here. You know, they've added. And if you say Kyle Smith as part of the old regime, he was running the front office when they drafted Antonio Gibson, Cam Curl, and I guess Chase Young as well. That's true. Right. Gibson was in the draft where he was still running the draft. Good point.

Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So I don't know. I mean, and I guess one reason why this is all matters is it's only what it's today, January 20th or something. 21st. 21st. The quarterback conversation will go on for a minute here. Now, last year, Stafford was traded in January.

We know Alex Smith was traded in January. Until there are more moves being made in the league. in terms of hiring coaches and GMs for a lot of these openings, I think it's going to be a bit quiet on that front. But eventually something will start to get going, and we'll kind of see what they can or can't do. But this is going to go, this conversation is going to go on for a while. And if we go all the place to the draft, yeah, I mean,

there's going to be a lot of ushering, selling, and all that stuff. And that, again, it's not unique to hear. Just to be clear, every team does this to some degree. I mean, every sports team, organization coach, everybody is trying to put their best foot forward. Nobody wants to say, look, straight up, we were terrible, right? We were awful. There's no reason anybody should want to come here.

We got a lot, you know, nobody's going to say they're going to build, they're going to make the best case for themselves. It's totally reasonable. And, you know, this would be no different than that. It is just interesting, though. Let's watch it unfold and see what it said, what's the reaction, how does it all manifest itself? And by the way, like, to all that end,

Ron Rivera is going into his third year. He didn't have a ton of pressure last year coming off a successful close to the year, and you're only going to year too. So you could maybe to a degree be patient once you didn't get Stafford. Plus, there weren't like a ton of other options. But now, if you draft the rookie and that guy isn't ready right off the bat, that's probably three losing seasons in a row, and you're not sure about the fourth,

and that's the pressure he's looking at now. another reason why the veteran just makes more sense because, you know, is anybody saying today Justin Fields looks great? I don't think so. He may be interesting still. I'm not arguing that, but you can't sit here today and go, wow, the Bears definitively have their guys. They do not. And that's what you're looking at with taking any. And that's all you can work you this year or you'd less than him. No, but I think if I were a Chicago Bears fan and they've been out in the quarterback search wilderness for as long as we have, I guess they had Jay Cutler and they got to an NFC championship game and they had Rex Roseman and actually made it to a Super Bowl. But that aside,

I think I actually, if I were a Bears fan, I'd be optimistic. I think that there were flashes from fields this year. But that aside, you mentioned something that brought me back to Trubisky and that is, you know, that Alex Smith was traded for at the end of January. What was the other one that you said was done by the end of January? Stafford deal was done by the end of January. Well, you can't really you can't deal with Houston right now because they don't have they're still hiring

you can't deal with Rogers right now because he's in the playoffs you can't deal with Carr right now because he's probably going to have a new coach and a new GM well definitely a new GM so that leads back to Wilson who I think is a long shot

but you know who will be available once these playoffs end for them maybe Sunday night at Arrowhead Mitch Triple Mitch Trubisky. Mitch Trubisky could be available, although he is technically a free agent, so he'd have to wait, I think, for the league calendar to begin, right? I think so. Yeah, and I don't know if I said this here or when we're doing the radio, but one reason why I think Trubisky also would make some sense is, you know, Rivera's ties to the Buffalo regime are well-established.

Brandon Been and Bean and all that. And so they would have had, they would have been around Trubisky this year. So they give, you know, glowing reviews. Hey, we really thought he improved, whatever. That's the type of endorsement that Rivera could very much lean into for, for sure. And again, before anybody starts screaming, what are you guys talking about? Tell me who else is available right now. Not hypothetically, who else is available? That's the whole point. There's nobody. It's why even like Taylor Heineke, if you told me the world is they draft a quarterback at 11 or in the first round, and Heineke is the other guy, okay. I mean, like, it's not like these other options or better today.

They may have more potential, and again, I'm not arguing Heineke should, whatever. But if we're all saying Heineke is a viable number two in this league, okay, well then, you know, if you draft the rookie and give him time, that may be your, arguably your best path. If your only path is, if the only way you decide to go after looking, after failing on your big swing for Watson or Wilson or Rogers or car or whatever, and you really aren't interested in Winston or Trubisky or Jimmy G or whatever. And you do like one of the young quarterbacks and you're just going to make the move up.

You're going to give up some draft equity to move up five or six spots to make sure that you get Kenny Pickett or you get Malik Willis or whomever. Then, of course, that's the scenario that is a lock for Taylor Heineke to come back in. So I'm not suggesting that I don't I even think you know the Trubisky drafted player with Taylor being here as a third stringer as a possibility I just don't think many people have discussed the possibility

that Taylor Heineke may not be on the roster and to me the Trubisky drafting a quarterback in the first round well why would you take the $3 million hit on a guy that is clearly going to be your number three and that you hope you'll never have to play again that's my thing you know by the way For those that are really hell-bent on, you know, winning percentage being a quarterback stat,

Mitch Trubisky's 29 and 21 as a starter. But if you take out his rookie year, since then, he is 25 and 13 as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Last year, before we went to Buffalo this year, last year in Chicago, he started nine games. And they went six and three in those games and was two to one, you know, TD over. interception 16 and 8. He had a couple of really good games at the end of the year. I thought his playoff game against New Orleans was an embarrassment. I've mentioned that before. It's one of the reasons I was off Trubisky. I always kind of liked him, but I'll never forget that game, which was still in doubt in the second half, on a fourth and two, in it, like the Saints 45-yard

line, they went for it, and Trubisky ran out of bounds a yard and a half short of the first down marker because he didn't want to take the big hit. As a big dude, he's a big dude. He's a big dude. He's a big strong dude. You know, he's like 6-3-225 and can motor. And I hated that, in part because I had the bills plus the number last year. But by the way, just in terms of the money here, like, obviously, if they're going to go get a real big-time quarterback, that's going to cost, you know, whatever, 25 to 40 million or who knows what salary cap hits all that kind of stuff. So they have to some degree factor that into their current plan. if what you're saying is Trubisky signs just for argument, it takes like $6 million a year, sort of.

Might be more than that. I mean, if Dalton was $10 million last year, because they signed him to be a starter, remember? Because they had... Even if it's 10, right? Matt Jones, as a 15th pick last year, his cap hit was around $2.8 million. Yeah. So even with... So just it bumped it up to $3,000, $10 million, $3 million, and...

It's still cheap. It's still way under budget for what they're doing. I got it. No, I understand that. I do. All right. Stick around. We're going to do some NFL playoff talk next, and I'll finish up the show with the smell test right after these words from a few of our sponsors.

Don't forget to rate and review us, especially on Apple and Spotify. That is a big help to us when you do that. If you haven't rated and reviewed the show, really easy to do, especially on Apple and Spotify, other places as well. But it really helps us from an advertising standpoint. If you can do that, subscribe to the show also. It doesn't cost you a thing. Ben Standing sticking around for one more segment.

By the way, did you see the story that Jay Gruden is going back for a second interview at Carolina for the OC job? I think there's a decent chance he's going to get that job. And by the way, I think Jay's a good offensive coordinator. Yeah, I mean, I had Jay on my podcast on Monday, and that was right before the news that he's actually technically formally interviewed with Carolina, one for a little alone, the second time came out. But we talked about a little bit on the air and the talk a little bit on the side. And, yeah, I definitely had a sense that he was potentially in the mix there and that Carolina, from what I've heard independently, that after going, they had the young

kid Brady as their offensive coordinator, that that flamed out, clearly, that they're looking for a more established veteran this time. So, Jay Grigg would fit that bill for sure. that looks like they've got some other people that have interviewed as well, but that would certainly make a lot of sense. Jay can be an offensive coordinator. I think they get attention to details to some degree where maybe got him into trouble from the head coaching perspective,

not to mention the overall setup here wasn't great. But yeah, I think that would be an interesting hire. They also, of course, have no sense of what their quarterback situation is. Go listen to Jay on Ben's podcast, Standing Room Only. The reason Ben's on with me is because I love having Ben on with me, but also because Jay was going to come on. But now with, you know, perhaps, perhaps a deal with Carolina in the offing, I think he's going to take a backseat on some of his media stuff, which I always enjoy the conversations with Jay, and I know many of you do as well. Jay's a big football fan. He's watching everything.

He's taking everything in just like Mike Shanahan does and others that we have on the show occasionally. and it's good to get their perspectives, especially on quarterbacks. Now, I'm trying to think, actually, I'm pretty sure, and I'm going to go back and look for this, I'm pretty sure I asked him about Sam Darnold last offseason. So I'm going to go back and find what he said on that, and if I do find it, it'll be at the end of this podcast. I'll just tag it to the end of this podcast. But, you know, Carolina's got some talent. They were very, very good defensively at times, especially when they were healthy.

I think they've got a star in Burns. I think they've got a star in Derek Brown. You know, they've got a good team defensively. Here's something interesting about the Carolina thing. If they end up being in the market for a quarterback, now I haven't checked out their salary cap situation. I wonder if they would be one of those teams that would be in the market. if Minnesota decides to try to trade cousins because of the salary, I wonder if Carolina would become a possibility with Jay Gruden as the offensive coordinator.

Be interesting. Yeah, that's fun. We talked about cousins a little bit because I was asking about Garoppolo. Like if you're in need of a quarterback, if you look at a guy like Garapolo, like, he's better than what I have. Therefore, let's go all in. We're like, I'm just being teased here. He's not going to get me where I want to go, which, of course, everything I just said is

how people look at her cousins that we talk about from that perspective. Yeah, I think when I talked before about the level of desperation, as long as Dan Snyder stays out of the room, Ronderverer seems pretty calm about these things. The owner of the Panthers, he's way involved. He's been way aggressive, and he is going to go do what he thinks he needs to do. So, yeah, it wouldn't stun me at all if if it's, you know, Deshawn Watson or cousins or somebody becomes available,

that he's like, oh, we got to do this. Yeah, I'll tell you, I think, I don't know if it was the last time Jay was on my podcast or two times ago, but many of you won't believe me, but you can go find that podcast and listen to it. Unsolicited, Jay really was all in and super complimentary of cousins. And it wasn't that he was being super complimentary of everybody. but he emphatically said, I didn't want to lose Kirk Cousins. I wanted Cousins.

Cousins was good. And I was actually somewhat surprised at how adamant he was, that that was not his call and that he wanted Kirk all along and sort of advocated for them to get a deal done earlier as well. Now, he did ultimately say Kirk didn't want to be here, which I helped to remind him that, you know, look, bottom line is, You guys lowballed them to begin with. And then Bruce threw him under the bus after making an offer to him for $35 million, $30 million under the market,

to which he said, yeah, but I think we had a sense that at that point he wanted out. To which I didn't have the heart to say, yeah, I think once Sean left, Kirk was out anyway, which I do think is true. But I think both things are true. He was probably out because Sean was gone. and he was then not given a chance to stay with a second low ball offer. Anyway, we move on. I can't wait for these games tomorrow. This is one of my favorite weekends of the year, and these are four tremendous matchups,

and I think that these have, you know, on paper, the potential to be four really good football games after a bit of a dud of super wildcard weekend. So I'm going to ask you this first question about these first. four games. Is there a result in any of the four games that would be a big surprise to you? Good question. Let me think here. I'll just quickly note that I have a different story up on the website today. I, for the second week, and I interviewed player personnel directors slash scouts for their analysis and predictions for these games. And based on that and my own thoughts, I kind of feel like the only one I would be sort of surprised, I guess, is the one that

that most people would say is not a surprise, and that is Bengals over Titans, only because, I think like Tennessee gets completely disrespected because they're a boring team and their quarterback is not one of the star quarterbacks, but, you know, they beat Kansas City and Buffalo. They still had a winning record even after losing Derek Henry. They played more players this year than anybody in the league. I think they're a pretty good team in the Ruffalo built for this time of year, and I'm not knocking the Bengals at all.

I just was, you know, kind of look at them, the way I do a lot of these of-and-coming teams, there's a step to take before you take the real step. So I would imagine, to me, this is a step for the Bengals. I know they won last week, but, like, that I'll just, if Joe Burrow comes out and lights it up, and he may, and they collectively do a good job, good to them, but I would be a little surprise against a team like Tennessee that's sort of been there, done that. All the other games, in terms of the wins and the losses, I don't think any of those

would actually surprise me. I think the only, let me just mention one thing about Tennessee. I like Tennessee, too. Like, I think Rables are really good coach. I think the system, and by the way, Arthur Smith calling the plays last year, you know, I think that they've got a really, there's something about that team that I think isn't appreciated enough. And I think that's kind of what you're saying. And I think, you know, by the way, they're underappreciated by betters a lot of the time, too.

Now, I will tell you that this game is not in the smell test. The action's very much split. But I think they're well-coached. I think they've got much more talent than people realize when they're healthy. That game that A.J. Brown came back in against the 49ers was just a phenomenal individual performance. I always kind of liked Ryan Tannehill and thought he was a little bit undervalued Miami. If they get Derek Henry back, I think it's a big deal if he's Derek Henry. they have playmakers on defense.

I think Jeffrey Simmons, who, by the way, made the second team all pro. And I thought deservedly so, although I don't think it was more deserved than John Allen. But I was a huge Jeffrey Simmons fan coming out of Mississippi State. At times, he was a wrecker this year up front, you know, with Dupree and Byard. And, you know, all the guys they have, you know, Harold Landry at a B.C. was always one of those guys that I thought had a chance. I think they're a really good team. that said, when in doubt, it's like the quarterback, stupid, the quarterback, and the other team has

the quarterback. I like Ryan Tannahill, but they've got Joe Burrough and they've got Jamar Chase. And yes, they haven't been there. It's true. I would also just, one other thing I want to add about Tennessee, they've got some really head-scratching results this year. They lost to the Jets, they lost to the Texans, and they lost to the Steelers. Now, they had to turn the ball over four times to lose to the Steelers 1913. It was one of those incredible wins that the Steelers had that was super close, which ultimately got him into the playoffs and got them embarrassed, obviously, last week at Arrowhead. But kind of like, you know, the Buffalo result against Jacksonville or the indie result against Jacksonville. There were some head scratchers this year in terms of results.

But, you know, they lost the Jets and the Texans this year. You know, they got blown out by the Patriots this year and the Cardinals. Fully healthy, I think it's a great matchup, and I think Tennessee, nothing's going to surprise me about any result. But I'll tell you that when I asked you about a bold prediction for the weekend, mine will come from this game. I think Cincinnati will be up to the occasion. I don't know if it'll be good enough to win, but I think they'll be up to the occasion. Now, for me, I think the thing that would surprise me the most, and it would, It'd be hard to really shock me with any result this weekend.

Is if the Rams actually beat the Buccaneers, I think in watching the Rams, look, they seem to be getting it together defensively. Von Miller was outstanding last week. Aaron Donald, you know, unbelievable. I mean, the Rams literally almost went to Green Bay last year. They were only down a touchdown in that divisional round playoff game without Aaron Donald. He got, you know, he was hurt coming in, got hurt early, left the game. So Donald and Miller and that team, you know, Ramsey,

I could see them causing some problems for Brady, who's always struggled with interior pressure as much as anything else. But I've said this the last several weeks running. There's something off about the Rams right now offensively. And I'm a Stafford fan, but I don't think he's played great. Now, the other night, he wasn't asked to do much. And what he did, he did in a very, high-level way. And he had that long drive against the 49ers that gave him the lead with two

minutes to go, 92-yard drive. And he made some big throws on that drive. He's had seven interceptions in his last three games with, I think, two or three pick sixes. I don't think that they're totally on the same page offensively yet. You know, and they added OBJ into the mix, and he was really good on Monday night. But I think the thing that would surprise me the most is if the Rams, by the way, after playing a Monday night game and being, you know, on a short, you know, week, you know, playing on Saturday, playing on Sunday, you know, and the Bucks may be getting a little bit healthier. They need worse. They might be getting Leonard Fournett. I think Fournett probably will play. I think I'd be surprised if the Rams won that game. Not majorly surprised, but that would be the one thing that would somewhat surprise me. All right. My next for you, is. Give me a bold prediction about any of these games. It can be a bet prediction. It can be a prediction about, you know, a performance by somebody, but give me a bold prediction about any one of these four games. Good question. I will say that in the Buffalo, Kansas City game, I don't know how

bold you're going to think this is, but that Josh Allen is the better quarterback. And I know he just had the huge game last week, but one of the questions I posed to the scout is, have we seen enough at this point to ask the question who would you rather have Josh Allen or Patrick Mahom? Something that nobody would have even pondered

recently, and I'm not just doing it off for the one game. He's obviously been pretty good. There was a split reaction to that. I just think that Buffalo is the better team, and I actually am going to pick Buffalo to win, and I think that's going to happen, not just because of Josh Allen, but I think Buffalo's defense will make

my homes look a little bit left Mahomesy and Alan will thrive and he will be the guy who's the better quarterback in that game. I think that's kind of bold. I, you know, I asked coolly this question the other day because it was kind of an argument that two of my three sons and I got into last weekend via group text. And that is if you had your choice right now of Burrow, Alan, or Herbert, you know, for your franchise, if you're running a franchise, which is, the three would you take? It's a great question. I like Joe Burrow a lot.

Me too. I mean, yeah. That's my bold prediction, by the way. It's not even that bold. But I think that Burrow and Chase are going to be really good in this game. I see the Bengals totally up to the occasion. I see

them moving the football with the best quarterback on the field, the best wide receiver on the field, and it's close. A.J. Brown's excellent. okay, he is really so good. You know, this is why when I get into this argument about Terry McClorn, Terry McClorn's an exceptional wide receiver, don't get me wrong. And he's a clear-cut top half of the league number one.

There are some really good receivers in this league. You know, and clearly Chase has a much better quarterback throwing to him than Terry McClorns had in his three seasons here. You know, it would be cool to see McClorn with a big-time quarterback like a Deshawn Watson next year. That'd be fun. But there are two star receivers. I'm not even counting Julio Jones. There are two star receivers in this game in Brown and Chase. But I think Burrow and Chase are going to be

totally up to this occasion. These are dudes that played in games against Bama together in national championship games. They've just been there, done that. Nothing phases them. It was a playoff game last week. They were solid. They burrow through for five 25 and 446 in his last two regular season games, which were must games for them to win the division and get into the postseason. I can't wait for this first game. I'm not suggesting that it'll be enough to beat Tennessee because Tennessee can hold on to the football. They can

run the football if they've got Derek Henry. It's a great matchup. It's a really good matchup. But Burrow to Chase ends up being a big deal. I'll look at some props on that game. I think the over-under on Jamarch. Maybe it wasn't chases. I think Devante Adams had an over under of seven and a half catches. But that's going to be a fun game. By the way, on your Bill's thing. So Tim Murray was on with me last week or the week before.

And we were talking about betting. And he has his own personal theory, which is sort of kind of off the smell test theory. And he calls it the neighbor theory. You know, when the neighbor comes over and says, wait a minute, Nick Saban's team is getting points in the national championship. That doesn't make any sense. Where can I bet on Alabama? You know, that's the neighbor theory. And I think you've got a lot of neighbors talking about Buffalo off of that performance last week.

And that's odd because of what Kansas City is and the reputation they come with and playing at Arrowhead in Mahomes and Hill. and Kelsey and the whole thing. But, you know, I think right now the bills are a little bit of a darling right now of, you know, neighbor John or neighbor Bill. They're not, I'll tell you, they're not in the smell test because the action's so split on this game. But it might be one of those neighbor theory games for me. Yeah.

And I might go Kansas City in this game. I mean, it might be. I mean, look, Kansas City, what have they won, 10 of 11? and they've been in the AFC Championship three years in a row. Like the bill has been kind of more up and down. So if you're just viewing last week as, wow, Belichick, they did that to Belichick, therefore they must be insane. Yeah, that I would agree.

That wouldn't be great. I just feel like Buffalo is a little more well-rounded. One of the scouts was saying he just looked at Buffalo's like they feel like they're like a team on the mission. They used to vanquished the Patriots check. They lost the chief last year. Well, you see if they can get them. You know, Kansas City's defense has kind of. kind of shown some holes the last few weeks after turning things around.

So I think that was sort of the point there. But certainly, yeah, anybody thinking Buffalo is the definitively better team, no, I just kind of, I think they're more well-rounded team. And the only game we really haven't touched on, because we've sort of touched on all the Bengals, Titans, Bucks, Rams, and Bill's Chiefs game to a certain extent is the game that I think most people would probably be saying, well, this was where I, you would have guessed you would have been most surprised, which is the Packers losing to the 49ers. I'm not going to be surprised if that happens. I'm not picking it. And I kind of like Green Bay to win the whole thing this

year. I think Rogers and Adams are on a different level right now together. But the 49ers, if they are fully healthy and it looks like they will be with, and I think Nick Bosa is a big deal in this game that he's healthy and back. You know, Aaron Rogers is 0 for 3 against the 49ers. in the postseason. And that kind of leads to my next and final question as it relates to these four games, because I'll give you my answer first. And that is which team is going to feel the most pressure this weekend? Last weekend, I think it was pretty obvious, and we said it on Friday's show, that Dallas was going to be the team that felt the most pressure. Like they had the most pressure to win, and they didn't do well with the pressure.

In fact, their own head coach said they were nervous in the game. I think the Packers and Rogers are under the most pressure of any team and really of any player in these four games this weekend. Aaron Rogers has won one Super Bowl and only been to one. Aaron Rogers has a 12-9 playoff record, all right? You know, remember all those years where Peyton Manning's playoff record was sort of held against him. And he actually, I think for many years, had a sub-500 playoff record until that final year with Denver.

I think that's true. Aaron Rogers, by the way, 0 for three against the 49ers in the postseason. They lost to that Colin Kaepernick team, 45 to 31 in that incredible performance by Kaepernick. They lost in the first round to the 49ers when they were still cooking with Harbaugh 2320. And then they got absolutely throttled in the NFC champion. championship game two years ago, 37 to 20, but I think it was 30 to nothing at half time, or 27 to nothing at halftime, or something like that. And by the way, San Francisco's defense was dominant in that game, and Boso was dominant in that game. So I think he's really big.

But I think that the Packers and Rogers in particular have the most at stake, the most pressure on them this weekend. What do you say? I think from an individual perspective, I can make the case for Rogers for sure, right? I mean, you know, all the conversation, last summer, whatever's going to happen this off season, to me, a lot of noise, it's all about legacy. He's made all the money.

Where does he rank all time among quarterbacks? That's what this comes down to. A lot of people say, including in the story I just wrote, one of the scouts that he is probably the most physically talented quarterback we have ever seen, who the guy who does all the, who's all the wins among the best guys, but he still only

has the one Super Bowl win. I some crazy stat the other day that in the playoffs, Aaron Rogers and Tom Brady have the exact same amount of wins over NFC teams, even though Brady had only been in the NFC for two years because of all the Super Bowl wins.

You mean it? You're talking about in the postseason. In the post season? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, right. Yeah, of course. But that's just an insane to realize like that. It goes to how many Super Bowls Brady's won, but also, and I think Rogers is amazing that, you know, he just hasn't been as dominant on that front as others.

Not saying that's on him, but it's the fact. So I think individually you're right. I think from a team perspective, I think the RAM have got to be championship game or bust. They've been the most all-in team, any of those have ever seen it feels like in terms of all their moves. And, you know, it's not 100% about this year. But there's no, like, both teams could sort of say we're building. No. They are all in for right now.

with everything that they've been doing. So if they don't kind of get this done, at least get one more win, it's going to, to me, probably feel like a bit of a letdown. That's a good one. I mean, I do kind of feel like, you know, even more than just the Rams in general that Stafford's got a little bit of pressure on him. But I thought that I felt that way last week, too, because I said that the, the Cowboys were the team with the most pressure on them, but Stafford was the player with

the most pressure on him. And he got the playoff win. You know, he kind of got the monkey off his back. and now he's got exactly the same number of playoff wins that Kirk Cousins has as Sheehan once again weaves Kirk Cousins into the conversation. I'm kidding, of course. By the way, I'm trying to figure this out. So Roger's overall playoff record is 12 and 9.

He's only played in one Super Bowl and won it, which means he's got 11 NFC wins. Brady has seven Super Bowl wins, right? Seven? It's seven, right? Yes, but last year they did he beat an AFC team in the Super Bowl. Oh, so then he's only got six against the NFC and they won three NFC games. So that would be nine wins in the postseason over the NFC.

So I don't think. Maybe I mean, I didn't bet the stat. That's just what somebody threw out there. I just bet it for you. Well, fair enough. Either way, it is still pretty crazy that's even that close considering what's going on. All right. Do you have a best bet because you do gamble?

I hate to say it, but I kind of think I might take the Rams. But my only issue with the Bucks is, who obviously, you know, Tom Brady and all that, but like, man, they are just, you know, two of their starting offensive linemen are beat up. They're missing the two receivers. Leonard Fournett hasn't played yet. Like they got Mike Evans, they got Gronk, but the Rams can put Jaylon Ramsey on Mike Evans. and then I don't know what Brady is doing is easily, and the Rams are starting to look.

They've obviously been to have out of sync most of the year. They get Cam Acres back. Beckham has six touchdowns in the last eight games. You know, if Stafford doesn't gag, I think that they just may have more stuff plus, but the Rams' defensive lines totally dominated the game last week. So I kind of think I would take the Rams and the points

because I think they could actually win it outright. Other than that, I'm actually very curious to see what your smell tests are because I'm sort of still trying to weave through the other game. Well, you can stick around if you want because I'm going to do it next. Or you can say goodbye to everybody. It's your choice. I'm sitting on my couch debating food. So I'll sit here for a few more minutes.

Okay. My smell test is next right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Kevin looks where the John Q Public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. This smell test three and three last week. Two games under 500 for the year. I had four totals last week. Three of them hit.

I have no idea how Vegas Cincinnati stayed under, but it did. Dallas, San Francisco, stayed under. The Rams and the Cardinals stayed under, barely. I had the Chiefs Steelers under. That went way over. And then I had the Eagles and the Bills last week. Not the Eagles and the Bulls, the Eagles and the Cowboys, excuse me, last week.

Both of them losers. Many of you really got after me on the Eagles pick, specifically kind of saying things like you were dead wrong, you overrated the Eagles all year long, et cetera, et cetera. You've been obsessed from Nick on Twitter. You betting on the Eagles. You've been obsessed with them all year. Admit that they suck already.

Actually, I'd rather you just say thank you. and I would say you're welcome. I never predicted the Eagles to do anything other than what they did, which was make the playoffs. When they were two and three, I bet them at plus 375 to make the postseason. I played them over seven at the beginning of the season. And yeah, I liked them before the season started. I liked them during the season.

And I thought they were just better than people thought they were. And that's all I said all year long. Now, I did like them last weekend, and I gave them out. plus nine, and I said I thought they had a chance to legitimately win the game in Tampa. But, you know, to say I was obsessed with Philadelphia, or as someone else said, I overrated them all year, you're welcome. You know, if you took my advice and you bet on them all season long, and you bet on them to make the playoffs, and you bet on them over seven, then you want a shitload of money before you lost a little of it back on Saturday, or Sunday, when they played

Tampa. I was surprised Jalen Hertz played that poorly, although it turns out that he was more hurt with that ankle than we knew at the time. By the way, Dak Prescott fined $25,000 for his comments, which he apologized for afterwards, the comments where he sort of applauded the fans for throwing stuff at the referees. I didn't have a problem. I thought it was emotional for him afterwards, but the Cowboys kind of are excuse makers after the fact. All right. People are here for your picks, not mine. I did have the Niners Money Line last week, and I did like the Bucs, but the Niners Money Line was my very happy.

Good for you. Winner, I had the Cowboys and the Eagles, for the same reason I have any of these picks in the smell test each week. It's because they are very much sort of against popular opinion, and they're sharp money. Now, there was definite sharp money on Philadelphia. I mean, that line went from nine to seven. at one point. In fact, I think I tweeted out at one point, I had gotten the Eagles at plus nine and played them at plus nine. At one point, I thought, if this thing goes to six and a half, I'm just

going to play the bucks and buy it back and have a nice little middle around six and a half to nine. Now, that wouldn't have worked either. Believe it or not, you know, the Eagles got the ball back there at the end of the game down 16, like with maybe a chance to score, go for two, and lose by eight, which would have been a winner for a lot of people, or maybe a push for a lot of people, and maybe still a loss for some of those that had the Eagles of plus seven. All right. How does that work for you?

Are you that strict? Like, for me, the issue was the Eagles did not be a single playoff team the whole season. Yeah. And therefore I was like, it just felt like like how Washington was last year, beating up on some of the bad teams to get in. Are you that strict? Like, even, I don't know if you thought that, but even if you do that your, it doesn't matter what I meaning Kevin think,

this is what the formula is. I'm just going that way. Oh, yeah. Yeah, I mean, in fact, I was lectured by Tim Murray on this podcast before the Georgia Bama game because I did not give Georgia out, even though it totally fit the criteria. Now, there was kind of sharp money on both sides, but the public money was clearly on Sabin and Alabama. And Tim lectured me, he's like, you never deviate. You never let analysis get in the way of a smell test pick. And I was like, yeah, but I actually, you know, I just don't like Stets and Bennett. And I said, I really think Bryce Young's the much better quarterback in this game.

And he's like, stop it, stop it. And I didn't give Georgia out. Now, I played Georgia, but I didn't give them out. And I should have. It actually should have been the opposite. I should have given them out and not played them. But anyway, yeah, you know, look, I pointed out several times down the stretch when I was saying, I think the Eagles are better than people think they are, and they're like, they haven't beaten anybody.

They just beat the Lions. I'm like, yeah, but I watch the game against, you know, the Bucks. I watched the game against the Raiders that they lost. I watched the game against the Chargers that they lost at the gun to a Dustin Hopkins field goal. You know, I just think they're better. They rolled up as big a number against the Saints offensively running the football as anybody had. Against the Broncos, too, two really good defensive teams. So they just were things.

And like they couldn't help their schedule, you know, Washington twice, the Jets, the Giants, and then they didn't really play anybody. They sat all their starters in the Cowboys season finale. I just kind of like the makeup. And by the way, I kind of like the makeup of the team, their team going into next year, especially given that they've got three first round picks. I would stick with Jalen Hertz, personally, but I don't know that they will. All right, let's get to the smell test here.

So let me just tell you right now. that the only overwhelming public opinion, opinions in these games are on totals. The first two I'm going to give you out. So the Sunday games, Bucks, Rams, everybody's playing the over 48 in this game. You know, they played earlier this year. The final score was 3424. And the total in that game, by the way, was 55. Now, I know the game was way back in September, but the total was 55, and the game went over the total.

It was 34, 24, you know, it was 58, and it went over. And for this playoff game, it's 48. Now, I know that the Bucks are banged up, and, you know, it's the playoffs, et cetera. But the public's looking at that like going, well, wait a minute, the Bucks scored 31 last week, and it could have been 51. They pretty much took their foot off the gas pedal. the Rams scored 34 on Monday night. And they already played a game that was 58 over a total that was 55. Well, this game, this total's wrong.

Well, never think that way. That's the wrong way to think. I'll go under Rams bucks. That's a major anti-public play. And then in the nightcap on Sunday, everybody is playing over 54 in the Chief's Buffalo game. Why? Well, Buffalo scored 47 last week. The Chief scored 42. When they played earlier this season, the total was 58 in the game that they played in October in Arrowhead. And the game pushed. It was 38 to 20. And this week, the line's 54. So people think that that total is low. So they're banging me over in this game. So give me Bill. Chiefs under 54. By the way, there are slight public leans on the over in the San Francisco

Green Bay game and the Cincinnati Tennessee game, but I did not, I might play the unders in those games, but they're not overwhelmingly enough public plays for me to give them out as smell test picks. I want to just mention something about over unders. I know I've mentioned it before. But typically public betters love overs. They love favorites too, but they really love overs. Because unders are really hard to root for. You know, you're rooting for the clock to move. You're looking for no big plays, no points. It's a lot easier to root for points. You know, and it's also a lot easier in your own mind to imagine a game between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, you know, going 35, 31.

and oh, by the way, that adds up to 66. So it's always easier, especially in this day and age of legalized sports betting. I would guarantee you the people that are betting legally because they've never bet illegally before, that the bet MGMs of the world, they are killing it on unders because the public's, the public's playing so many overs. So last week, I think four of the six games were under. I think that's right. And it wouldn't surprise me if the majority of games this weekend are under as well.

Last week, Cincinnati, Vegas under, Tampa, Philly under, Arizona Rams under, Dallas, San Francisco under. Yeah, four of the six games ended up under. It's just, you know, unders typically are anti-public plays in general, but especially when you have high. high-powered teams like Tampa, the Rams, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, Green Bay, Tennessee, Cincinnati. So I like all of the unders, but the official smell test selections are under Tampa Rams, under Buffalo and Kansas City, and then I've got one more play, and it goes against Ben's play. There's actually a pretty heavy lean on the Rams at Tampa. Now, I, you know, the lines at two and a half, and this won't make sense to a lot of people, but for those that have listened

long enough, I'd actually love it more if Tampa was like minus three and a half, because that would be really enticing more people to bet the Rams. But it's sitting there two and a half, and usually I will not play a favorite at minus two and a half in a game like this, but there is a bunch of public money on the Rams, not like there is on the overs in the other two games. but I'm going to give out Tampa minus two and a half in that game as well. So those are the three selections. They're all three picks for Sunday's games, nothing for Saturday's games, although I would lean under in both of those games as well.

But under Bucks, Rams 48, under Chiefs, Bills, 54, and the Bucks length two and a half. Now, if I were Ben to do this based on pure analysis, The truth is I don't think I'd play any game other than maybe Tampa laying two and a half. I think the Rams are the one team that I just don't believe in right now, even though I love Sean and I like Stafford a lot. But I could see turnovers being the big difference in this game, and it's sort of the way I'm envisioning it, where the Rams turn the ball over a ton,

the bucks end up with picks and maybe a pick six and a couple of short fields and they win, you know, like 24 to 17 or something like that, 24 to 16. Games stays under and they cover. But in terms of these games, I think they're all coin flip games. Nothing's going to shock me at all. The mild surprise would be if the Rams won. So what'd you think? Because you usually like my smell test picks, especially my Hoops picks. We've been pretty good on Hoops games recently to go. For sure. Yeah, I mean, like I said, it's hard when you asked me earlier, like what would be the surprising

one. Like I really, none of these are that would be that stunning to me. I mean, obviously, you know, whatever the result's going to be, we'll say oh, of course, Stafford had too many interceptions or, you know, Garoppolo made some bonehead play or whatever, but like on the surface, you know, there's, it's hard to pick those things. And I'm with you on the total. It's just not fun to pick the under. forget everything else. No, it's never fun.

Yeah, but I know friends who won't take the under, no matter what, forget money. They just won't do it because it's not enjoyable. So I'm with you, though, like all these games, I, you know, I guess I could make an argument. What's the line in the Kansas City Buffalo game? One and a half now. It's down to one and a half. So there's sharp money on Buffalo. I think there's public money on Buffalo, too.

and I like Murray's neighbor theory on Buffalo in particular, because I have a sense that after Buffalo destroyed New England on Saturday night, that that was much more impressive to the general football fan than the Chiefs win over the Steelers. And, you know, if you really look into it, I mean, who have the Chiefs really beaten? Like, I think Buffalo's really good, too. Don't get me wrong. But the Chiefs should have lost to Denver.

They lost to Cincinnati. They've beaten the Steelers twice over the last month. You know, and they barely beat the Chargers. A game maybe really they didn't deserve to win. They really didn't deserve to win the game at Denver. They had a fumble return to win that game. The Missouri linebacker that was taken in last year's draft, the rookie Bolton had like a 90-yard fumble return late in that game to win it.

Denver was going in for a two-score lead at that point. But anyway, all right, what else you got? I appreciate you doing this. This was not planned today with Ben, but it's always my pleasure to do this with Ben. I'm a big Ben standing fan. I urge you as podcast listeners to give his podcast a chance, standing room only. The athletic is totally worth the very minimal, like almost nominal fee subscription, to read Ben.

Ben does a really good job, a really, really good job of reporting on this football team. So thank you. Enjoy the football. I appreciate that. I have this broad comment, you know, because of the job I have,

I'm at the Washington football team one way or the other, and especially on the road, but either way, I almost never watch any of the other games, except for maybe the Sunday night game and maybe the Monday. And so at least one of the teams I'm watching every week

is a team that has been under 500, right, last two years with subpar quarterback play. To watch the playoff game, sometimes it feels like I'm watching a different sport. It's like this wasn't the playoffs, but the last regular season game Chargers, Raiders, to see Herbert and Derek Carr fire off the passes as they were, and it was like, wow, I almost forgot what it's like

to watch a game with both teams are making those kinds of plays. though. It is, it's not even so much I'm trying to like take away anything from a scheme perspective with these things in terms of Washington. It's to note there is a gap between the better teams and where this team is at now, regardless of what anybody wants to tell me about the roster or if only a couple things have changed, there is an eye test difference at a minimum of watching these teams versus Washington, Washington. You know, what you said, I've mentioned in the past before. Like, I think sometimes hardcore fans of one team don't consume the rest of the league. the way they consume their own team.

You know, they watch the game at 1 o'clock, and then they obsess over it for the next two hours, and they don't watch as much of the league. But I remember, Ben, like, I don't know, seven, eight, nine, ten years ago, something like that. When I was doing the radio pregame show for Redskins Radio, they had an off-season conversation about having me travel with the team and do the pregame shows from the road venues.

And I was like praying that that wouldn't come about because I didn't want to miss the rest of the NFL Sunday. And oh, by the way, when you travel with the team, you leave on Saturday, and I'm a huge college football fan. And I had, you know, five days, three hours a day worth of shows to do the following week. And I always felt like it was much more beneficial for the guys that were hosting shows that didn't have to travel with the team, you know, as part of the beat. you know, because what you just said, you know, you ended up missing a lot of the other football. By the way, you ended up missing a lot of the college football from Saturday. So I remember being in a meeting and just saying, what's the benefit we're going to get out of this? Essentially, I'm going to be doing the exact same show.

You know, whether I'm in Dallas, in the booth, or I'm at a restaurant where you sell it because they used to sell the pregame shows to restaurants where I would go to a local restaurant and do the pregame show there. or if I do it in the studio. Like, what's the real benefit? And everybody kind of looked around and said, well, I guess the show really wouldn't change that much. And I go, yeah, I don't see it changing that much. You know, of course I can look out, you know, an hour before a kickoff and say, oh, the Cowboys just came out there warming up and it looks like, you know,

Tony Romo, you know, is healthy and is going to go. But we have our beat reporter who, you know, typically whether it was Bram or whether it was Chris Russell or whomever the beat reporter of that particular year would always be a part of the pregame show and they would be live at the stadium. So fortunately they decided against doing it. But I remember thinking, God, you know, I'll do whatever they asked me to do, but I really do not want to travel with the team because ultimately it means watching much less football. But anyway, All right, look, Ben, thank you, as always. I really appreciate you doing this and hanging around.

It makes it a lot easier for me, and it's always good to catch up with one of the, I think, smartest people in our market covering the team. By the way, stay tuned because it is possible if I find the Jay Gruden soundbite on Sam Darnold, I will play that for you here at the end of the podcast going out. But Ben, thanks. I appreciate it. Thanks, man. Appreciate it. All right. Enjoy the football this weekend, everybody. Back on Monday to recap all the games.