The Kevin Sheehan Show - WFT Waiting Game

Episode Date: December 20, 2021

Kevin had former Washington TE Logan Paulsen and ESPN's Scott Van Pelt on the show today. Logan helped preview the Washington-Eagles game tomorrow night while Scott talked about the NFL's Covid decisions this weekend along with yesterday's games.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. Huntley. Pass is broken up. Packers make the play defensively.

Stokes was there for Green Bay. The most exciting game of the day was that one in Baltimore yesterday. A depleted Ravens team hanging in there, giving Green Bay all they wanted with Tyler Huntley, a quarterback. But a lot of the discussion coming out of that game was that play. The decision that John Harbaugh made to go for the lead, not the win, there were 42 seconds left more on that coming up, to go for the lead there, failing and losing to Green Bay 31.30. For those of you that listen to the show, and I know that there are some Ravens fans that listen to the show, the Ravens in a bit of trouble right now. If the season ended today, they would

not be in the postseason. They play Cincinnati this coming week for the division lead, a loss to Cincinnati, and Baltimore is in major danger of missing the playoffs altogether. I don't know if there was any result yesterday as stunning as the one last night where the Saints shut out. Tampa Bay, 9 to nothing, shut them out. Tampa had a lot of injuries in this game last night, lost Godwin, lost Fournette, lost Evans, lost Levanti David, but still to get shut out last night by the Saints and the Saints winning that game, a bit of a blow to the 6 and 7 NFC teams. I'll go through that here in a moment as well. Two guests on the show today, Logan Paulson, former Skins tight end, will be with us here shortly, and then Scott Van Pelt will

finish up the show in the final segment with a lot of NFL football talk. And I'm sure I'll ask him something about who the next Maryland basketball coach will be. The show is presented today by our good friends at Window Nation. They've got a great deal going on between now and the end of the month. 50% off all styles of windows. Bays, bows, double hung sliders, doesn't matter. 50% off any style window. plus you can get a house full of windows for only $99 a month.

It's an incredible deal. It lasts only through the end of this month. If your house is drafty, if your energy bills are too high, it's because your windows need to be changed. I promise you you can trust Windonation. Great product for a phenomenal price. You'll be working with great people. They'll give you a free estimate if you mentioned my name,

Kevin Sheehan, at 86690 Nation or Windonation.com. All they do is Windows. They installed nearly 250,000 windows in the last year alone. 97% satisfaction rating. Call them at 86690 Nation. Go to Window Nation.com. Do it now. Get the estimate. You can shop the estimate if you want. I promise you you will not get a better deal and you will not work with a better company. You can get 50% off now, all styles of windows and you can get a house of windows for $99 a month.

Window Nation, 86690 Nation or Window Nation.com. All right. As I am recording this podcast, even though I did record the interviews a little bit earlier, just as an FYI, that's why you won't hear me mention to Logan Paulson about Brandon Sheriff being on the COVID-19 list. So that is the breaking news here this morning, is that Brandon Sheriff has gone to the Reserve COVID-19. 19 list. That doesn't mean, it doesn't mean that he won't be off it by tomorrow. Also, Matt Ionitis is expected to be activated from the COVID-19 list later today. That would put the list down to 16 in total, and I'll go through that list in a moment. The biggies are obviously

the two quarterbacks. Taylor Heineke, Kyle Allen, both still on the COVID-19, list. Neither one of them off it quite yet, even though Ron Rivera said the numbers were trending in the right direction. Washington has to announce by the end of today their 53-man roster. By the end of this afternoon, they've got to declare their 53-man roster. The league will allow them to put players who are on the COVID list currently onto the 53-man roster, and then shortly before kickoff, they'll have to come up within inactive lists. So I would guess that Kyle Allen and Taylor Heineke,

unless they are convinced that one or both have no chance of playing in the game tomorrow, I would expect them both to be on that 53-man roster this afternoon, or at least one of the two, in hopes that they get one of the two. That's really the key to tomorrow night's game. They got to have one of their quarterbacks. One of the guys that have quarterbacked this team, know this system.

They signed Garrett Gilbert. We talked about that on Friday's podcast. Garrett Gilbert was in the Carolina system with Ron and Scott Turner in 2017 and 2018. But Garrett Gilbert, if he starts, it's not the same as having a lot of. having Taylor Heineke or Kyle Allen start. At least I don't think it's the same. As far as the two quarterbacks, I'll be perfectly blunt. I don't care who it is.

I just want one of them active. And I know for you, Taylor Heineke de-votes, that sounds kind of harsh, but it really isn't. What I'm saying is, I want one of them. If you told me right now, you get one of them, you've got to pick one of them. I'd probably pick Taylor Heineke, but I'm not going to be overly worked up if it's Kyle Allen. I'm not going to really think the chances of them competing tomorrow night are going to be much lessened if it isn't Taylor Heineke. I'd prefer a healthy Heineke because he's been their quarterback all year.

Kyle Allen hasn't started a game since last year, and he didn't play that much in a game until last week. And even then, he didn't play a lot. So I would rather have a healthy Taylor Heineke starting, but yeah, I'm not going to be, you know, throwing up my arm saying we have no chance if it's Kyle Allen. I'm not so sure that the chances would be much greater with Taylor Heineke. I'm not so much sure that they'd have a different record at this point in the season had Kyle Allen started the last 12 and a half games. But they need one or the other tomorrow night. It'd be really good to have Terry McLaren. He was trending, and he is trending towards playing.

He was a full participant in yesterday's practice. J.D. McKissick was not. He didn't participate at all. But it would be great to get Terry McLaren back. It would be great to get a guy like Cam Curl back. Earlier in the day on the radio show, defensively, I was like, man, ionitis and curl. It would be great to get both of them back. And it looks like you're going to have ionitis back.

And so if you have ionitis back, you know, and I'll all. ask Logan Paulson about this. You'll hear me ask him about it. But, you know, with the Philadelphia rushing attack, and Philadelphia, by the way, lost a starting guard to the COVID list. But it would be great to see Washington have a somewhat normal rotation of defensive tackles because it wouldn't surprise me if we see a lot of five-man front against the number one rush offense in the league. I'd love to see curl back there. I'd love to see Collins, who we know is great. going to be in the game or, you know, as of now is going to be in the game, you know, their list of players on the COVID list with ionitis coming off it really consists of these key players.

You've got the two quarterbacks. You have Troy Apkey as a special teamer. You've got Cameron Curl. Kendall Fuller's not coming off this list as an unvaccinated player. Matt Ionitis is off the list. Cornelius Lucas is still on the list as well. And Tim Sennel, settles still on the list. So those are really the key players that are still on the list. And you'd be great to get one of the quarterbacks back. It'd be terrific to get a guy like Cameron Curl back at this point now that Matt Ionitis is off the list. And to have Terry McLaren available would be huge. Does look like both Curtis Samuel and J.D. McKissick as of now will be no-goes for tomorrow night. But if you can put the quarterback out there with most of these

defensive linemen that are now off the COVID list with the exception of like Tim Settle. Remember, Montez Sweat, I'm sure you followed this over the weekend, is off the COVID list as well. They've got to take him off the injured reserve list. We'll see if he's on that 53-man roster. It wouldn't surprise me if he is on that list later on today. But then you've got Washington, you know, getting close to full strength in the couple of days that the game was postponed and rescheduled for would have really helped. Apparently,

it isn't going to help the Cleveland Browns who are not going to get back either one of their two quarterbacks for the 5 p.m. start later on today. They're going to have to start Nick Mullins in a rather huge game, but the league did give them an opportunity with the extra time to get some of their other players back. I've not really followed the Rams and the Seahawks situation, although I know the Seahawks have actually added players to the COVID list. They were not the reason that the three games got rescheduled. Look, I want to clear something up because I talked about this on Friday, and some of you still don't understand it.

The league did not say back in the summer that if you have a COVID outbreak, sorry, we're not rescheduling the game. They did say that if there were, were massive COVID outbreaks that were caused by unvaccinated players that teams would not have their games rescheduled. They'd be forced to forfeit. They wouldn't get paid. And by the way, the teams they were playing wouldn't get paid either. Okay. But the league did leave out the possibility if outbreaks were with vaccinated players primarily. And it wasn't something that the team did. and there's no evidence that the Rams, Browns, or Washington football team did anything to cause these outbreaks.

And I think we all kind of understand that intuitively, given what the country's gone through with the massive, you know, we think it's the Omicron outbreak. But the league never, ever said that they wouldn't reschedule a game if there was an outbreak with vaccinated players. If it had been an outbreak with all unvaccinated players, maybe. The whole process back in the summer, the whole point was to incent teams to get their teams and their players vaccinated, and it worked. 94% of the league ended up being vaccinated. Now, the league has come around. We talked about the path back off the COVID list onto the active roster with the easing of the testing for vaccinated asymptomatic players, that they were going to be able to test more frequently.

And we mentioned the CT slash viral load measurement. The CT stands for cycle threshold. It's essentially a measurement of how much COVID you have in your system for all intents and purposes. And it really measures whether or not you are contagious or not. The league said last week, late last week, players will have. their CT numbers checked, and even if they've tested positive, if their number is at a certain level, it's like 35 or higher, not that that number means much to us. If it's 35 or higher, and they're asymptomatic and vaccinated, they can return to play. So even though we had this massive

outbreak among three teams late last week, and it started to get pretty scary in terms of, are we going to get a season in? And I understand some of you are sitting there going, actually Kevin it's scary because maybe a lot of people were sick well they weren't most of these players were asymptomatic or very mildly impacted with symptoms out of the 25 players that were on Washington's list as we entered Saturday the doctor the team doctor said only 23 of the 25 were asymptomatic the other two didn't name names but it's understood that they were impacted with mild symptoms from it. But giving the players the opportunity to test positive,

but to not be contagious and therefore have the ability to return will help this situation going forward. And then the NFL took another step over the weekend where they are now going to test less frequently vaccinated asymptomatic players. So players who are asymptomatic and players who are vaccinated are going to be what they call spot tested. That's like a random testing. It means that unlike what was the case where they were getting tested weekly, they may not get tested at all if they're vaccinated and asymptomatic.

Unvaccinated players will be tested. So there you go. As of now, a game tomorrow night, 7 p.m. against the east. Eagles, massive game in the NFC playoff race. The Washington team right now as we speak here on Monday morning with roughly 16 players on the COVID list, but they've gotten several of their defensive players back. You know, John Allen, Casey Two Hill, James Smith Williams, Matt Ionitis. That's huge.

And we wait, you know, the rest of today to see who ends up on that 50,000. three-man active. And I would imagine that at least one of the two quarterbacks will be on it. And assuming that they don't get cleared between now and then, hoping that they will get cleared before kickoff tomorrow night. Okay. So Logan Paulson's coming up here momentarily. But I did want to talk just a bit about some of the NFL games from yesterday. And I wanted to start with that Baltimore game that we came in with. Very exciting game. By the way, I'm a big Tyler Huntley fan all a sudden sudden extent. God, he really played well. Do you remember when Washington played Baltimore in the preseason? They played the Ravens. The Ravens were their final preseason game.

They lost that game, by the way, 37 to 3. And I went back and looked this up before the show. Tyler Huntley threw four touchdown passes in that game. Four. It was the final of three preseason games, because remember, they only played three preseason games. But I remember coming in here afterwards and saying, man, that Tyler Huntley looks like he can play. But it definitely looked like he was the perfect backup for Lamar Jackson, because he's the same stylistically. I actually think he's a little bit more decisive as a thrower. And they moved on from Robert Griffin, the third.

Huntley's better, I think, and he's younger. And they moved forward with Tyler Huntley being the backup. Man, I thought he played so well yesterday for the Ravens. I mean, he accounted for four touchdowns in the football game. He threw two, he ran for two, he had a QBR of 82.4 in the game, a 99.5 passer rating. Of course, on the other side was Aaron Rogers throwing three touchdowns, no picks. with an 84.2 QBR and a 132. Passer rating. But it was an entertaining game.

Man, Mark Andrews has developed into just a high, high-level tight end. I personally think Kittles the best tight end in the game right now and is playing the best. But man, Mark Andrews out of Oklahoma is really something else. And Baltimore hung in there. And then all of a sudden they were down 3117 after they went for a fourth and six deep in their own territory with 12 minutes to go down 2817. And, you know, I was watching the game.

I didn't have action on the game yesterday. But I was like, whew, I mean, I kind of understand it. And at the same time, there's still 12 minutes left in the game. But Green Bay had gone in their first and only two drives of the second half. They had gone 13 plays, 80 yards, seven minutes. and 20 seconds to open up the second half to take a 2114 lead. Then Baltimore came back. They ended up kicking a field goal 2117.

And then Green Bay went on an 11-play 88-yard drive that took five minutes in 26 seconds, and it was 28-17. Baltimore's second possession of the second half started in the fourth quarter with 12 minutes and 54 seconds left. So they had a fourth and six from their own 29 down 2817 on just their second possession. And John Harbaugh said, we got to go for it. And I remember thinking in the moment, if you punt it back to Green Bay at this point, given their last two drives and with a gas defense, the next time you touch the ball, it'll be 35 to 17. So in some ways, even though it seems crazy going for it may have in that moment seemed like their only chance now it wasn't they missed it

they held green bay to a field goal so when they got the ball back it was 3117 they went down scored 3124 got the first stop that they got forcing a punt and then they went down and if you were watching the game you know that they scored a touchdown on tyler huntley scramble um to make it 31 30 and then john ball with 42 seconds left and made the decision to go for two. Now, I want to go over this just for a minute. A couple of things. Number one, Baltimore was hurrying way too much on their final drive of the game. They went hurry up. There were plenty of time once they got the ball to about the Green Bay 25-yard line. There was like a minute and a half and they were continuing to go fast. They had an injury. on the play that cost them one of their timeouts.

I think they could have potentially chosen for a 10-second runoff and then for the clock to restart. But it was Mark Andrews who I think was injured on the play. And so to get them back on the field, they had to use a timeout. But they didn't use as much clock as they could have. They should have been thinking simultaneous with, we need to score here, but what we really need to do is score and leave no time left for Aaron Rogers. because it is Aaron Rogers on the other end.

And leaving him with 42 seconds after that last score was going to be a problem whether they kicked the extra point or went for two. Now, as it relates to the two-point attempt controversy, I guess, well, if you know anything about two-point analytics, okay, or two-point probabilities, analytics sometimes, especially, when they're talking about statistics more than like two point conversions or fourth down conversions. It's just, you know, it's advanced stats. It's probabilities. Whatever. We'll call it analytics for the purpose of this conversation. The two point analytics people that are beholden to just, you know, the historical data that says this,

they think that you should go for two when you're down 14 and you score. So at 3123, you should go for two there, which tells you exactly what you need when you score on your next possession. That that is an increased probability scenario for winning if you go for two on the first one. I pointed out because John Harbaugh at the end said, we went for the win. Well, if he had really been thinking about going for the win in regulation, then he would have gone for two after the score that, made it 31 to 24, but he didn't. He kicked with 447 left. So that was a mistake. If he's going for the win in regulation, he needed to go for two there. If he makes it, it's 31.25 and you kick on the next one. If he misses it, then you know you still have to go for two and you will have had

two swings at two two-point conversions to potentially win the game. Worst case, tie the game if you just make one of them. Okay? If you make the first one, you never kick, you never go for the second one. You kick and you take the lead. If you miss the first one, you get one more chance to score a touchdown and go for it. Now, they didn't go for the two, which was, you know, the right thing to do at 3117 when they scored. And then when they scored with 42 seconds left, they went for the two-point conversion. And John Harbaugh said that he was going for the win. So, the There are a couple of things here. Number one, that description's inaccurate.

He wasn't going for the win. He was going for the lead. There were 42 seconds left. Number two, how did I feel about it in the moment? Because I am very much beholden to a lot more than just historical numbers. Okay, don't tell me that this is what you have to do based on historical numbers this time. because I'm going to take a lot more information into consideration before I decide to go for two and the lead at that point.

By the way, how much time is left, who the other team is, who they have at quarterback, how many timeouts they have, is all part of the context. I'll start with this. If you decide to go for the lead there and you miss, it's game over. because the only chance you have is recovering an onside kick, and we know what those percentages are. They're less than 10%.

So going for the lead with 42 seconds left, if you miss, it's pretty much game over. You're going to lose 31 to 30 because you don't have timeouts left to stop the clock. You have to recover an onside kick. If you don't, they're going to need a game out. It's going to be over. The second thing for those really interested in the historical data as it related to this team this year, they were 28.6% on two-point attempts this year. It's not a very good percentage. Again, I don't know how much that would have gone into my thinking. But for those that just rely on the numbers and say, well, it's a 50-50 thing on the two-point conversion. You go for the win there.

Well, for Baltimore this year, it's 28.6% and two-point conversions. And two-point conversion percentages are down this year anyway. I think fourth-down percentages are also down this year. But anyway, they decided to go for it, and they decided to go for the lead, not the win. They missed it. It was game over. If they had made it, the Packers with one time out and 42 seconds left, in my opinion, The odds maker in me would have said that the Packers would have still been favored to win the game. Aaron Rogers, 42 seconds left down one.

I would put them at like a minus 140 favorite to win the game. Also keep in mind that if you're down one, the analytics people will even tell you this, that your odds of getting into field goal range with 42 seconds left are even higher, because you have the urgency, the desperation, if you will, that, you know, if you get into a fourth down, if the score is tied and it's fourth and three from your own 32-yard line, you know, with 13 seconds left or 15 seconds left, you're not going for it. But if you're down one, you have to go for it. So the urgency, the desperation of being down one actually increases slightly the probability that you're going to get into field goal range than if the game were tied. I personally in the moment didn't think one way or the other.

I thought he was going to go for it because it's what he does. But with 42 seconds left, I knew if they made it, Aaron Rogers was still going to give Mason Crosby a chance to win the game on the other end. Now, Mason Crosby should be part of the context and part of the decision-making. He's not been a great kicker. So where do they need to get to? Your kickers, excellent. I also do not subscribe to the thought that many had that Baltimore would lose the game in overtime, that Green Bay would have this massive advantage in overtime. So you've got to go for it. Well, look, the Packers were going to be minus 140 if they made it. And if they kicked it, I think they would have been like minus 138 to win the game in regulation. But if you missed the two-point conversion, you lose. I think in that particular situation, not having enough context from Baltimore standpoint, like, did they have the right play? What did they think about Green Bay's defense? What

did they think about the way Huntley was playing? Did they feel like they really had a play that would work? You know, go for the lead if you're really convinced this is the right thing and you got the play to work. If not, in that context, I would not have considered my chances to be like next to nothing in overtime. not after the too long drives with Huntley. The play, they cut off half the field. This is a dude that was using his legs all day long. You rush for 73 yards.

I didn't like the play call at all. But one of the things that was interesting is that Harbos essentially said after the game, you know, the numbers are the numbers, but even I have occasionally a problem with the numbers people. That's far different than the John Harbaugh of a couple of years ago who said, we're going with analytics. We're gone with whatever the analytics people say we should do. Anyway, Tampa, Tampa, losing that game 9 to nothing. New Orleans having now a shot at 7 and 7 and a pretty decent shot.

They get Miami, by the way, next Monday night. Miami, who is now 7 and 7. The New Orleans win hurts Washington because remember the head-to-head they beat Washington. It hurts every other NFC team. Right now, the NFC playoff picture is essentially this. Dallas winning against New York unimpressively, by the way, on offense. Four more takeaways for the Cowboys, man, they are something else and taking the ball away this year. The Cowboys are probably going to win the NFC East. They can win it with a tie by Washington in Philadelphia tomorrow night.

But more likely than not, they're going to win the NFC East. It just requires one more win or one more Philadelphia and or Washington loss, or each of them losing one more. So Pencil-Dalison is the champions of the NFC East. The Packers have already clinched the NFC North. The Bucks losing in the NFC South, they're still in great shape to win the division. at 10 and 4, even though the Saints just completely shut them down last night for the fourth time in the regular season, even though they lost that playoff game. Remember, Tampa beat them in the playoffs. But they've got a three-game lead with three to go in the division. Even though they were swept by the Saints, the Buccaneers do have the Panthers, the Jets, and the Panthers. So they're going to win the division.

And then you go to the NFC West where the Cardinals got beat by the Lions. You know, the Lions, we've said this several times, total capable team, totally capable all year long. God, they've lost so many close games, and they've been a live team all year long, with the exception of that Philadelphia game when they got blown the blank out, 44 to 6. but the Cardinals lose. That's two in a row for them. They're 10 and 4. They're only a half game ahead of the Rams.

The Rams can tie them for the division lead, although even though they split their two games, the Cardinals right now do have a better division record, although they have one division game remaining. But the Rams are still in the hunt for the division. The 49ers aren't out of it as far as the division goes. after they beat the Falcons yesterday, 3113. Atlanta had the ball four times inside the San Francisco five-yard line

and didn't score any points. That was weird. But right now, the NFC playoff picture essentially looks like you got Dallas, Green Bay, Tampa, and the NFC West winner, for the purposes of this conversation, say it's Arizona. And then you've got the Rams and the 49ers as the five and six seats. You know, the Rams are well ahead of everybody else. And the 49ers are, you know, now a full game ahead of the Saints who are in the seven spot right now after their win last night. So you've got in the NFC the Saints, the Vikings, the skins, and the Eagles essentially fighting it out for one spot.

The New Orleans win hurts because I think what it does now, it essentially, takes the eight and nine possibility for Washington out of the equation. Because New Orleans only has to win one more to get to eight. And if Washington ended up with eight and New Orleans was the only other team at eight, Washington would lose that head to head because they lost to the Saints. So it really does make it now pretty much got to win three, get to nine and eight. And you're going to have to hope that the Saints don't win two of their final three. The Saints play the Dolphins, Panthers, and Falcons. You've also got the Eagles and the Vikings in the mix as well.

And the Eagles, you know, have a better situation with New Orleans because they beat New Orleans head-to-head. So New Orleans did themselves a huge favor by winning. I don't think they're a very good team on offense. I do think they're good on defense. They hurt Washington probably more than they hurt Minnesota. Philadelphia, but they didn't help Minnesota in Philadelphia. But right now, I think Washington's got to get to nine and eight,

and then hope that the Saints lose at least one of their final three, lose two of their final three games at nine and eight. And I think that's really what the Saints win did yesterday more than anything. It made Washington having to win three of their final four an absolute down the stretch. And even then, there's no guarantee that it'll get them in with the Saints now being two wins themselves away from nine and eight. Okay. Logan Paulson will join us right after these words from a few of our sponsors.

All right, let's bring on to the podcast, I think for the first time. I mean, I've wanted to have them on before and it's just never worked out. but Logan Paulson is with us. Of course, Logan played here as his first team as a tight end out of UCLA, ended up playing with other teams towards the end of his career and is doing a ton in local media with the team. He's also on our flagship, the team 980, doing the pregame show weekend and week out. Logan does such a good job at analyzing the team. So I'm glad to have you on today.

you know, there's going to be some datedness to this podcast, because I'm sure by the time many people listen to it, there may be another couple of names that come off the COVID list. But, I mean, you've been playing football your whole life. I mean, the last two years have been crazy. But these last few days, I mean, this is nuts and would be, I think, very difficult for coaches and players to manage, don't you think? Yeah, I mean, difficult is probably a little bit of an understatement. think it's impossible is the word that comes to mind. I mean, just the way they've been poaching and picking at other people's practice

squads and flying people in for the game on Sunday that were going to play. They were flying guys in on Friday that were going to start for this for the Washington football team. I just think it's kind of like unbelievable in terms of installing game plan and getting guys comfortable with in terms of execution and what needs to be done, offensively, defensively special teams. And it just I can't think of another situation in my tenure or the tenure before when I played, something like it's even remotely happening.

So it is unprecedented. It is a lot to deal with. And I'm glad the NFL postponed the game. Yeah, I am too. Not everybody agrees. Some people were saying, you know what, let's just go in, take D.L. And be healthy and fresh for Dallas. I'm like, no.

No, you've got to go after these games, no matter what you have. And the delay gives them a chance to get one of the two quarterbacks back. There's no guarantee, but here's the question. It's the typical sports talk radio question. If I told you only one of them was going to be off the COVID list in time to play tomorrow night, Kyle Allen or Taylor Heineke, which of the two would you prefer? Man, that's a great question. It kind of goes like which you think is the better player, which you think is better for this offense.

And over the last probably four or five weeks, I've been kind of leaning towards this Kyle Allen led Washington football team off. In terms of, I think his arm strength is a little bit better. I think he opens up the field a little bit more. And I think that would be really nice for what this team is at the moment. And what I mean by that is because of they're so run first, because they're kind of got this really kind of dominant physical presence with that offensive line, the way Gibson's been running, I think that having something that kind of allows you to push the football

down the field a little bit, which would just be such a huge advantage. I think I look at Taylor Heineke, he's the fourth worst quarterback in terms of air yards down the field. obviously like that's a little bit scheme, that's a little bit of his play style. And I think just having something to kind of push the defense back a little bit, make it a little bit harder to fit these runs. They've done a great job of cultivating since the by week, would just be a really big advantage.

Now, I'm not saying that I think Taylor He needs a plow or anything like that. I think it's a great job from a leadership standpoint. I think he's super competitive. I think he inflates that offensive line tremendously. But part of me just wants to see what this offense looks like with someone with just a little bit better arm, you know, and if this is something that kind of opens it up, like kind of, this is an extreme example,

but taking an Alex Smith-led offense in Kansas City and then inserting Patrick Mahomes. Now, I'm not saying anyone here as Patrick Mahomes, but I'm just saying in terms of arm strength and what it does in terms of forcing defense to defend it, to defend more volume of the field. I'm just kind of curious to see what that looks like, especially in this offense,

a Scott Turner offense, which has kind of been characterized historically by pushing the football down the field. Is the arm difference between the two that much different, in your opinion? You know, I'm not saying, Kyle, I don't get the best arm in the NFL, but when I watch, when I watch them play, when I watch them practice, it doesn't seem, in my opinion, to my eye, that it's a deficiency. In the same way that it is with Taylor Heineke, there's times of Taylor Heineke's throwing the football where I'm like, he's got to put more into that to get the ball there on time, or he throws the ball kind of with such a poor tempo that defenders can break on the ball. He can't fit it into certain windows. And that's not all the time, but it's just because his arm strength is limited,

you have to work harder to get it done. So, again, like, I'm not saying I'm not happy with the Ohio and I keep playing. I think he's been a great job. I think Scott Tony has been a great job emphasizing it still said a little bit more coming out of the buy. But I just want to see a quarterback in this offense that can execute some NFL throws with more than the 50s. I mean, I sort of made a fake promise on the radio show and on this podcast like two weeks ago that I was just kind of tired and fatigued with the Taylor Heineke next year conversation

because, you know, they had won four games in a row. It's like, you know, I was telling people, Logan, I came home one day, and my son who's at Penn State happened to have been home for the weekend. My son who lives in Baltimore was in the house, and the two of them were just back and forth. One saying Taylor Heineke doesn't even – doesn't – shouldn't have a spot in the league. and the other one convinced he was the future, and I had to say, hey, guys, they're playing the Cowboys this week. You know, one of those things, like, they got a game this week. But I do want to take advantage of having you on to ask you what your gut is on Taylor Heineke long term.

Yeah, so I think to me this is a relatively straightforward question in the sense that I think he deserves to be in the NFL. I think he's shown an ability to win football games in the NFL, given the right kind of support from the offensive coordinator and the right game plan kind of management. And that's what a backup is. He's got kind of the mobility, the leadership, the competitiveness that you want at the position. He has some physical limitations that if you look around the league, most backups have something that you say,

oh, I wish this was a little bit better. And that's Taylor Heineke's M.O. at the moment. His arm strength isn't the best. I think he's defense as well. I think he's a smart guy. All of those things are great. I think he'd be a good. I think you'd be a good mentor for a younger quarterback coming in.

Outstanding. Check, check, check in terms of backup quarterback. I don't think you feel great. I don't think you love the idea of him being your starting quarterback long term because I just think there's more upside at the position. And I know a lot of teams feel that way. There's probably only five or six teams in the NFL that feel really good with their starter. But I do think that you can upgrade there, and I think you should look to upgrade.

And I think the good thing that he's done for you at the moment is like, if you can't find anybody this year, maybe you ride with him another year. I don't think that's the way to go, but I could see the argument for that. I don't think you want him being the starter for five years, six years. I just don't think you're going to get anywhere you want to go in terms of playoff wins, Super Bowl wins. But I do think he's a serviceful backup. He's doing a great job in that role.

And I think he should be commended for that. But I do think the organization should definitely look to upgrade. Last year at this time, unsolicited Rivera told reporters that if Kyle Allen hadn't gotten hurt, he thought they would have been in the same position they were in. I actually felt totally like that was true. And watching the limited amount of Kyle Allen that we watched when he started against the Giants and they looked like a more professional offense than they had with Duane. And then after watching Alex, even though Alex certainly had his moments,

I didn't think there would have been a different record. And I think that they would have probably gone seven and nine and qualified for the playoffs in that horrible NFC East. they're six and seven right now. If Kyle Allen had started the last 12 and a half games, what do you think their record would be? I honestly don't think there'd be that much of the difference. I think I kind of agree.

I think they're kind of different shades of the same person. I think when you look at Heineke, we talked about all the things he does well, leadership, competitiveness, athleticism. I think you reads defense as well. I think he throws with decent anticipation. But if you kind of juxtapose that to Kyle Allen, Cal Allen's got good mobility, not great mobility.

I think he makes okay decisions, better arm strength, but they're just kind of different shades of the same person. So I think they don't protect the football particularly well. I think they kind of make decisions throughout the course of the season that put the team in harm's way, put the record in harm's way. And I think for all the upside that, you know, Taylor Hineke gives you with the run game, I think that's kind of offset, you know,

in Cal Allen's faced by his slightly better arm strength. But in terms of decision-making, in terms of protecting the football, I think they're very, very similar football players. And so I think all things being equal, I think it averages out. I think the reason I want to see Kyle Allen essentially this weekend,

or I'm curious to see, I think there's the idea that, you know, the thing you don't know is always more enticing. But I do think his arm strength gives something to this offense that would make it better. It would give it some more dynamic element,

which is why I'm kind of advocating for him now. But in terms of overall record, to the overall play, I think it's very, very similar. All right, let's talk about the Eagles. And we don't know what Washington's going to have for sure, even though, and I talked about this in the open, they obviously got some good news. The extension of this game to Tuesday night

allowed players like John Allen and Cam Sims and others to get back. Actually, Alan would have been able to play on Sunday because he was off the COVID list on Saturday. I have this sense that many in our fan base don't think, much of the Philadelphia Eagles. What do you think of them? I think that's interesting. I think if you were to watch the think, you probably feel a little bit differently. I think the Philadelphia Eagles are, in a lot of ways, very similar to the Washington football team. I think they have an outstanding offensive line. I think they're a

run-first team. I think they have pieces in place, probably more pieces in place offensively, that makes you think, wow, this team can make a run if they get the right person at the quarterback position. I think defensively, they're kind of, I know, Joe, Guardage-wise, they're been very productive, but in terms of other metrics and just kind of the eye test in terms of how the defense is playing, it's not great. It kind of reminds me a little bit of the Washington defense early this season. I think they play a lot of soft zones. I think there's a lot of space in the coverage of the rush of them get home, and you see teams be effective against that group because of that. Now, I think they're a solid group.

I much like the Washington Beach is solid. I think the Washington football team is better, but I do think, again, it's like the Taylor-Heaney team. Kyle Allen think I think they're kind of different shades of the same team. And so I think this is not like just a pushover game. I think when you look at what they're doing offensively from a run standpoint, I think it's super innovative. I think it's just the physicality with which that offensive line and the tight ends they're playing with.

I think it's going to be a really, really tremendously tough matchup. I think when you look across that group, they've got some really big athletic, physical guys that allow them to run the football in a conventional way and allow them to run the quarterback with the quarterback run stuff. And I think that that is something that is a testament to that group. And again, Jalen Hertz is kind of a limiting factor there because of how he knows the football. He's a little late with his reads. He likes to see stuff before he throws it.

And in the NFL, you just can't do that. So I think that's kind of how I feel offensively about to make it defensively strong, defensive line. Okay, secondary. Their linebacker struggle a little bit. But I think they're a solid group. I think this is going to be a very, very tough football game because of the, of what that group can do offensively.

We saw a lot of five-man front at times during the course of this season. I know that they may not have the rotation, depending on who's off the list and who's still on it. Like Settle and Ionitis are still on it, but it's possible both of them could be backed. Do you think this is the kind of team that ideally, if you were at full strength, we would see a lot of five-man front?

I think 1,000 percent. I think you've got to find ways in versus this defense. to negate what they do well. And what I mean by that is you've got to cover DAPS up, which is what you do with the five-man front, let those linebackers in the back run free. You know, Jamie Davis, I think, makes a lot of play sideline and sideline, but struggles when you run right at them.

And this team can do that emphatically. I mean, their guards are playing at a really high level. I think one of them just got hurt. Yeah, one of them's on COVID, yeah. Which is good because the coach just this week compared him to Quentin Nelson up in Indianapolis, and he's been playing at that level. Having a player like that out off the team is, I think, a big advantage for the Washington football team. But, yeah, you've got to cover those guys up and you do that with the five-man front.

Also, you do things like run a line stunt in terms of first and second down, which a lot of teams don't do. What you're getting out of that is you're giving the quarterback false reads in terms of do I keep it, do I run, and you stunt the defensive line, you loop linebackers. And I think all of that can be done off that five-man front, and especially with Jalen Hurts the quarterback. And what I mean by that is because Daila Hertz seems to struggle so tremendously in obvious passing situations, I'm not saying he can't throw the football because he can make plays. They have playmakers down the field, obviously, Devante Smith, Jalen Rager, not quite as productive as Devante, but explosive 4-3 type of guy.

They have weapons on the outside, but he just is not the best facilitator. He's at his best when they're running, when they're ahead of the sticks in terms of pounding the football. They get explosive plays in the run game through the quarterback run, and Sanders is an explosive running. back. So I think finding ways to mitigate the effectiveness of their run game and force hurts to beat you from the pocket is paramount this game and that starts at the five-man front. Yeah, I agree. I'm talking to Logan Paulson. I know you've got to run. I've got two more quick ones for you. Because you're a tight end. What is Logan Thomas, assuming he comes back fully healthy off the torn ACL? What is his future? Does he have a chance just to be a really good

tight end or does he have a chance to be much more than that? Well, I think the thing that is the thing I've always, so is it, it's an MCL, right? It's not an ACL. No, they came back and they said it was an ACL after they were worried it wasn't. Now I think it is, yeah. Oh, that's terrible news. Anyway, so I think the thing about Logan Thomas had always depressed me, even, like, so winning, because I've followed him, he's an interesting guy to follow,

a guy making the transition from quarterback to tight-end, and watching how he puts up the physicality of the position, watch out, watch how he picks up the rot running element because he's a big athletic guy, and he has just gotten better every single year. a scary thought because he was pretty good last year and I actually think he's better and more confident he's more assertive to the ball in the air than he was last year this year and I thought man like this guy he continued to continue to follow this trajectory he's going to be very special as a business and I don't think he'll ever be the best tied into the NFL because I think when you look at the best tied in the NFL the moment

Kelsey kiddle waller maybe pits goddard or Andrews those types of guys the guys that are very very special athletes and very very special in terms of how they're featured in the office I don't think Logan Thomas will ever get that same type of featured element that he did last year. But I do think that because of his physical skill set and because of the way that, again, like the way he tracks and attacks the football in the air for a big guy, it reminds me very much of Andrews up in Baltimore. And I think that that is something obviously you've seen just in watching his career. As a case study, Andrews I'm talking about, you say to yourself,

man, that could be a very productive player in the league for a long time. So it's really disappointing to hear that he's going to be dealing with a rehab and maybe lose a year in terms of his growth, because his growth has been exponential since he's made to switch the tight-hand position. By the way, just as an aside, in watching the last two weeks, three weeks, I think Kittles the best tight end in the NFL. He's fantastic. I think he's taken like a step ahead of whoever you have number two, Kelsey, you know, any of them.

There's something about the physicality that he runs with after he's got the ball in his hands that I don't think we've seen from any of those people. Yeah, I mean, I was blessed enough to play with him for a year when I was in San Francisco, and he was a rookie at the time, and just to see his physical athleticism and the power and the mindset that he plays. But that's something that I immediately respected about him, and I will continue to respect about him. And everyone asks me, who's your favorite head in the NFL? And I always say, George, even though George has kind of a marred injury history,

it's because he plays the game the way it's supposed to be played. He plays it with a passion and a joy and a physicality that you don't see those other guys play with, I think. I know you got to run. I appreciate you squeezing this in. Let's do it again soon. Thanks so much. Kevin, thanks so much for having me on me. Logan Paulson, everybody.

Logan underscore Paulson 82 on Instagram. That's Logan underscore Paulson, P-A-U-L-S-E-N-82 on Instagram. I enjoyed that. We'll try to get them on more often. Up next, Scott Van Pelt, right after these words from a few of our sponsors. All right, this segment with Scott Van Pelt is presented by MyBooky. Go to MyBooky.com or MyBooky.ag. Use my promo code.

Kevin D.C., they'll double your first deposit all the way up to $1,000. You have to use my promo code. Deposit 500. You'll get an extra 500 into your account. Deposit $1,000. you'll have $2,000 to gamble with. We've got football tonight, double header. Football tomorrow night, two games.

We've got NFL on Thursday night, NFL on Saturday, NFL on Sunday, college bowl games all week long. There's no better time of the year for football than holiday time of the year. Go to mybooky.orgie.orgie.com. If there's something already written in the promo code, erase it and write Kevin, DC, if this is your initial deposit, MyBooky will double it. You'll have free money to play with. They've got the best point spreads, best money lines, best pricing. Use it as a place to compare the point spread you're getting with maybe the site you have now. Use it as a site where you've

got free money. They're handing it to you. Take it. Bet anything anytime anywhere with my bookie. All right, Scott Van Pelt is on with us. Obviously, Scott, you know that our game, got moved to Tuesday night. And by the time people listen to this podcast sometime today or maybe later today or tonight, there may be updates on players that are available that are not available right now. We're all sort of expecting one of the two quarterbacks to clear the COVID protocol. But just your overall thoughts on what was a wild weekend.

I know we went through some of this last year. But, you know, not everybody agrees that these games should have been rescheduled. What did you think? I don't I really wonder what the NFL would have done if it weren't three different teams you know what I mean like like the Raiders are just the Raiders are pissed they're at their facility ready to get on a plane and they're convinced because the Raiders are convinced that the NFL has it out for them at every turn that had the rules been reversed that it wouldn't that they'd have been just like you're screwed your your games

forfeited but when it ended up where Washington and the Los Angeles Rams were in a similar boat, and you saw the cases spiking. And I also think that there were enough, and this is what I understand about the Rams, that so many of the positives were players that had no symptoms at all, where I think the NFL has shown that they're going to try to be nimble or fluid or however you want to call it. You might use a different word if you're saying they're just trying to figure out how to play games.

They're going to just be looking at it and say, what are we doing here? why are we telling players who are asymptomatic that they're a tested at all or b they can't play like we have to figure out a way to make this make sense and so it was just wild to see in real time that they reached that critical point of critical mass of the cleveland game and then i think the fact they had two other ones gave them an opportunity to just sort of lump them together and just so we'll try to figure this out but last week across the board and sports and across the country was just a pretty amazing turn with the whole thing like it's felt like all of New York City got COVID in a day. And, you know, a number of these teams, the NBA, the NHL, all hitting pause on games just because they kind of had to. So it felt like the NFL had some company. But this was something I guess, or at least I didn't think they were going to do, but then it seemed like they kind of had to do.

And Washington clearly benefits from it. Like they might get their quarterback back. As you and I speak now, Cleveland's not going to get back either Mayfield or Keenham. And I'm sure they would have hoped that. that would have happened, but they didn't. But, you know, the fact that you're going to get back, a bunch of these teams are going to get back players, at least in Washington's case, from particular, up front on the defensive side, it gives them a much better chance to compete, and now we'll see if they get a quarterback. Well, not to mention that, there's the chance

in Philadelphia had a player going to the COVID protocol yesterday. He probably would have played yesterday a starting guard on a team that really runs the football well. I think what's interesting. I'd be mad if I'm them. I'd be really mad if I'm them. Like Seattle's in the same boat, Seattle had a bunch of guys, and they're looking around, go, what are you kidding? So now we're going to, like, play it Friday, you know? Yeah. I think the, and I talked a little bit about this in the open of the show, but I think the interesting thing is that the NFL really doesn't have, based on what we know,

some, you know, line, like some quantifiable number of, okay, if it reaches X number of COVID cases within this time frame, then that game gets rescheduled. do know is that the threat back in July that was more of a headline that we're not going to reschedule games and that teams will forfeit and teams will lose paychecks. Well, that wasn't what was in the memo to the teams. They held out the possibility of postponing games if there was a massive outbreak among vaccinated players, which is exactly what happened with these three teams. But it is interesting. We don't know what the criteria is other than Washington, the Rams, in Cleveland were barely going to be able to field, you know, a team, and maybe that was a safety

issue. Well, it seems to me that what happened is that I think that the threat was sort of them waving their finger at teams. Like, if you don't get this vaccine, you can't play. Well, then we're not going to bail you out. And then it's like, oh, wait, everyone's got the vaccine, but everyone's still tested positive. oh, well, what do we do? And so, I mean, look, I think it's incumbent upon leagues, all of them to be, to adapt to whatever the circumstances are.

I mean, you know, the science and all this. Look, as we know, from March of 2020 until 9, until right now, rather, things have changed so much in terms of understanding what the threat is, you know, how sick you're going to get if you test positive. What does positive mean? Does it mean you're sick or it mean you just haven't, you know? And so here we are. So it was, look, to me, and again, I happen to cheer for one of the teams that benefited from it, had it gone the other way in Philadelphia, it would have been the one to benefit. I still would have said this seems like the most prudent thing to do because I think that's reasonable.

Me too. I know that sounds, you know, because it went our way, but I totally would have understood because here's the thing that Rodney McLeod, among others, didn't, you know, really get. yet. And that is, Washington didn't do anything, you know, wrong. You know, they were following all of the guidelines. At least there's been no reporting to the opposite. Same for the Rams. Same for the Browns. Like last year, if you recall, the Broncos had that situation with the quarterbacks in the room and they had put their tracers somewhere and they were trying to scam the system. So the NFL came down hard on them. These were vaccinated players that were asymptomatic and like much of the

country, you know, got COVID last week and tested positive, not more likely than not, not something that they could have controlled. It could have easily been Philadelphia. And if it had been Philadelphia, I think I feel the same way you do. I would have totally understood. There's also just a sense as a football fan. It's like, these are really big games. You know, these are games that have major playoff ramifications. I don't want to see a team field a roster that looks like that fourth preseason game roster, you know, every August. I mean, who wants to see that? No one.

No one. And what you say is true. All of these games for the teams that are involved are significant. You want to give the teams the best chance they have to have the most representative group of people they can have. Yeah. They've also clearly in the last four or five days, and I pointed this out in the open,

they've made it easier for players who test positive to come back. There's this whole cycle threshold thing, you know, this viral load thing that essentially says you're not contagious even though you're positive. I'm glad. because most of America isn't testing their employees when they walk into work. And most of the NFL employees at a much higher rate than general society are vaccinated. All right, let's go to the games.

What did you make of the Baltimore Green Bay game, A, the way that Baltimore competed without a lot of players where they had a chance to win, and then, of course, the thing that everybody's talking about, which was Harbaugh's decision, in his words, to go for the win. Um, okay, the competition part just goes to you, you and me being closet Baltimore Raven fans. Stop it. We're not fans. We just respect the organization. You're going to get me in trouble with that because I'm not a fan. I know that. I mean, when I say that, I mean that we watch them play and we, um, we watch

them play and we think, you know, it would be, it'd be fun to have an organization top to bottom that kind of does it the way they do it. Anyway, the fact that they competed didn't surprise me because they always sort of do. The fact that they went for two at the end didn't surprise me other than the fact that they are at the sort of four of the analytics push where if you're going to do that, then you go for it the first time. That way, that way if you get it now, you kick an extra point. You win, and if you don't get it, you can go for it a second time, and then you, at worst case, are tied. The idea that, like, I really like Marbaugh. I really like him. He said, you know, we went for the win there, and it's like, I'm thinking, well, you went for the lead.

Aaron Rogers were going to get the ball with 41 seconds left, so win is a little bit much. Here's the thing that this whole analytics, you know, go forward on fourth or go for two misses, is ever using any sort of feedback from your eyes. And Harbaugh admitted it. He said it was a gut thing. He did. I'm wondering. He said it.

And this is where that kind of falls apart. Like you and I play blackjack. So if you play basic strategy blackjack, I have 15 and the dealer has a six, well, I'm not going to hit because that's what Matt says. I'll let you take the face card, presuming that that's just the correct play.

I don't get to say, well, you know, there have been, there have been 10 straight face cards, so I'm not going to do that here because you just don't, you don't let your gut get involved. If Baltimore felt like we just drove down the field, we held them to a three and out, got the ball back, went right down the field, this is as fatigued as they're likely to be, this is an opportunity where we like the situation, we called time out, we've got to play

we like. If all of that was in play, then I'll buy that. It makes sense to me, even though you either do it or you don't, right? And it felt like that's what he said in that spot. The play call, and Tim Hasselbeck said it, he said, everyone keeps saying they get rid of half the field. He said, no, he did. You basically get rid of three quarters of the field because the play design effectively had your tight end standing in the corner of the end zone. And Savage made a great read on the play and got a fingertip on the football.

And I just think it's nuts Not like I don't mean crazy nuts It's just it's wild That you've got a team that has lost What it's last three games by a total of four points Twice when they went for two in the waning moments of games And didn't get it That's a lot to risk on one play

But if they just you know If they felt like look we're pretty banged up Our wiggle room is pretty negligible here This is it's one play and we either when we don't You know I mean that's ballsy as hell it just didn't work. I thought it was so interesting the way he handled the conversation after this game because there was a time a year ago, two years ago where, you know, he said, well,

you know, we're going with the numbers. You know, we got an analytics department and we're going with the numbers. We know what the numbers are. We understand the math of this thing. Like he really, you know, he really stuck his chest out and said, we're at the forefront of this thing and we're not going to argue with the numbers. And after the game yesterday, he said it was mostly gut over analytics. He said, quote, the numbers are the numbers, but the numbers aren't perfect. I can tell you this, I've got to, I've shot a lot of holes in the numbers with the numbers guys. They don't take everything into account, so you just make a decision. The numbers are part of it, but the numbers aren't the main decision, closed quote. Good for him to coming around to,

this can't be a sole historical data decision. There's context. And there's, that's the thing that that that conversation totally misses that really bums me out because it's just turned into like nerds versus cavemen. And so it's like, oh, okay, you know, look, I don't dismiss it at all. I get it. And a lot of things make sense to me. But as an example, the Chargers, if you want to tell me you're going for it down at the one-yard line on the first drive of that game against the Chief.

because if you don't get it, then the chiefs get the ball on there won't, and you back them up. Okay, well, as it turned out, the chiefs won't write down and scored, but I still get it. But right before halftime, there's no win if you don't score. Like, they're not backed up. You just had another drive where you've got zero points out of the drive. And at some point, if you do that over and over and get zero points, even though the math was in your favor, then it can come back to bite you. But no one wants to have that conversation on the analytic side.

they just want to roll the eyes at you and say, oh, you don't get it. It's like, okay. No, I really, I think I do. I think I do, and you don't need to be patronizing. It's just you want to have a conversation about this or do you not. But you don't. You just want to tell me, I don't get it.

And that's like, oh, okay, well, you can sit over there at the table with all the people that get it and belittle the rest of us. I just don't think that that's not a necessary way to have a conversation. It's actually kind of interesting. and I felt like Harbaugh cracked the door on that. Yeah, he cracked the door because the door should have been cracked a long time ago. First of all, you know, Baltimore's two-point, like if we're going on recent historicals, they were 28.6% this year on two-point conversions.

Okay, and now they've got their non-starting quarterback in the game running a two-point conversion to win the game. Secondly, as you pointed out, this was not a go-for-the-win situation. This was a go-for-the-lead situation. And if you take the analytics on the back end of a make, Green Bay down one has a slightly higher percentage chance, which, you know, this is intuitive, of getting into field goal range because the desperation to get in field goal range, because you're down one is much greater, meaning that if they had a fourth down, let's just say with 22 seconds left, instead of punting, they'd go for it down one. They also have number 12. And a timeout and number 12 and 17 and all of their guys. So I just, and here's the thing, at 28.6%, that's what they were this year.

Now, again, okay, we think we've got them gassed after two long drives. Our quarterback's really looking good. We've got some confidence. And by the way, we've got a play that we worked on all week. We really think we'll work in this situation against the defense. We're going to go for the lead. We're going to put them in a position. where this dude Crosby, who's not a great kicker, he's very inconsistent,

is going to have to kick a 45-yarder because 12's going to get him in position. But he's going to have to kick one to beat us. We think that that's the better thing than going to overtime and maybe losing a coin flip and losing the game. If all of that was in play, then fine. But this notion that we had no chance in overtime, that's what we went for, why? You just move the ball on two long drives to score. maybe you would have won the coin flip.

Here's the one thing that analytics is absolutely right about. If they don't make the two-point conversion, they're pretty much going to lose the game because the odds of recovering an on-side kick are less than 10%. Which is why they didn't go for two down at 3,1, 23. It didn't make any sense. That to me said, if we get a touchdown, we're going to go for one. Right. And then they got to that point.

And then again, this is where perhaps context and Harbaugh's gut come into play. And he's like, man, this feels like our best shot. They've just been on the field for X number of plays out of the last however many of it. They took a shot. And it didn't work. And, you know, this totally has eliminated from conversation. The fact that Huntley played great. Great.

I was really impressed by the play. Me too. He had, he did the, he did the, the, the, the, the, It's such a cliche, but take what the defense gives you, and on those two drives, he did. He was like, all right, I'll throw it in these spots, I'll run it in these spots, and he exploited where there was, you know, a weakness, I don't know if that's the right word, but where there was room to exploit, he did. They scored two touchdowns. Andrews was awesome. They've been banged up.

They've been doing it with smoking mirrors, and somehow another, they've more often than not, they've given themselves a chance to win games. and the last few they haven't, and now they find themselves in real trouble to even make it to the playoffs. How do you explain last night's game? We know there were a lot of injuries, okay, for the Buccaneers. How do you explain a 9-0-0 final score? The Saints are able to pressure with four.

Cam Jordan's so good, among others. Then they have, it seems like with Jennings, Jenkins and Lattimore, they've got guys that are able to semi-lockups, as overused word, I suppose. But they just seem like they match up decently. So defensively, if you just look at Brady's brief time in New Orleans, the regular season games, they've had as much of an answer as anyone's had for Brady and Tampa. I think, you know, the fact that they had them, you know, shut them out in the game is it hadn't happened since what Saban along in 2006, something like that.

Well, and then let's be fair to Tampa Bay. Godwin and Fournette had been absolutely cooking lately, and they were clearly the game plan early on. Then you lose Godwin, and now the news comes out he's done for the regular season. You lose Fournette. We'll see what happens with his hamstring. You lose Evans. That changes rather drastically.

what Brady's got to work with. But it was just one of those nights it was weird. It felt like Gronk had some drops and one throw that Brady had that was perfect. Grankowski just sort of didn't seem to locate in the air.

And you see the frustration mount throughout the night for him. I give the same to a ton of credit. I mean, you know, the back end of the NFC playoff pictures, you know, if you look at Washington or you look at New Orleans and you think,

well, how frightening are that? Well, I don't know, probably not really. But then if you look at, say, Francisco or, you know, maybe Minnesota, like the ceiling that they're capable of playing to. I feel like those teams are far more dangerous, but I give the Saints all the credit in the world for somehow cobbling together enough that they're in the conversation. And it benefits us because our next Monday night game is with a Miami team that somehow's got all the way back to 500. That game a month ago looked like an absolute dog baby.

And now here we are going, hey, yay, saints and dolphins, you know, the holiday weekend between Christmas and the New Year's a winner. But how do I explain it? I don't know other than the Saints seem to have some sort of secret sauce that more than anybody else in the past two years has given Brady fits. Did you see what Brady did at the end of the game towards, I think it was Dennis Allen. It was certainly their sideline when he basically told him to go F themselves. Well, I did. Brady is not the happiest loser, but I mean, what do they say?

If you show me a good loser, I'll show you a loser. I mean, I think Brady, he's far more magnanimous when he wins, as a lot of people are in sports. But we don't know what they said to him. I mean, there seemed to be something said before. I don't think he told him that unsolicited. I have no idea what was said. Whatever, man. He got shut out.

I'm sure he was best. Last one on yesterday or just the NFL. I mean, you know, we've had these, you know, Detroit Hammers, Arizona. The game last night. I mean, I've asked you this when we've been on. before and done this before, it's like I think this is the hardest year I can remember, although maybe we say this all the time, but I have no idea who's going to be in the Super Bowl other than to say that the default should be Mahomes and Rogers, I guess. What do you think?

I agree with that. That feels most reasonable. The Chiefs have managed to in the last, what, seven games, I guess, take the conversation that surrounded them in October and just totally dismiss it. You know, they, but even then, you know, have they looked, have they looked, you know, like some sort of force of nature? Not really. You know, that game with the Chargers was nuts. Could have been, could have gone either way.

But, yeah, they feel like the default setting in the AFC. I really like the Colts, just because I like their defense and I love to. but I mean, can you win a game with Wentz? What a went to have, like, 40 yards? He completed five passes for 58 yards. I mean, can you win a game in the playoffs? I don't know that you can't. But then, I mean, the outside of that, the AFC, like, I said on sports

in a lot, I mean, good for Pittsburgh. They figured out how to win a game, but I felt like that game on Sunday against the Titans is the kind that when it's over leaves both teams thinking, well, we can't win a playoff game if we play like this. Either side. And New England, you know, the Mack Jones topic is really interesting because when they win, oh, they're not asking him to do a lot. And then on Saturday, it's like, I don't know if this guy can do it.

I mean, he's a rookie. You know, they're not winning games because he's out there throwing for 350 yards. But he certainly looked like he was pretty capable in other spots. So I guess it's the Chiefs because I think they'll now be at home. I really wanted to see Mahomes on the road. the playoffs just because we haven't seen it yet. I'm anxious to see that at some point. But then in the NFC, Arizona losing a couple in a row,

a couple in a row, Tampa Bay losing at home to, you know, a Saints team that only scored nine points. I mean, it certainly leaves Rogers as a feeling like a prohibitive favorite, no, but a favorite, yes. So, I mean, if it's the two state farm guys in the Super Bowl, no it's going to be bummed out about that. But I, if you give me them or the field, I'll bet everything I own on the field,

just because I don't feel like, we're likely to see the chalk make it this year. All right, I know you've got to run, but one last one before you go off the subject, off the football subject. Who are we going to get as our next basketball coach? I have no idea. I mean, there's, look, everybody does the lists, right? And I mean, the lists are fun because they, it's like asking if you have small children

what their list is for Christmas, because it involves a no, it involves no tie to reality. You can just say anything. I want this and I want that and I want a pony. And you're thinking, well, you know, Daddy doesn't have the dough for a pony. Or the backyard. Right.

So it's really simple to just name coaches that you think would be great. Who, by the way, might be great. That doesn't have any tie to what their reality of availability or interest. would be. I'd rather not say a name because I don't really want it to be a headline where Scott Van Pelt says this is who he wants. Put it this way. The list of candidates, I think, is pretty well established.

I hope and believe that somebody will, A, want it, and B, and Maryland will summon the funds to get them. And I think that will happen. I think Damon Evans recognizes the significance of what the tire is and knows that he needs to thread the needle and get it right. So the good news is you've got you got a bit of time on your side, and you can sort of kick the tires quietly, try to figure out who might have some interest, and then come springtime you've got to get it right. So I'm optimistic that they will, but all of this is a bunch of word vomit that started with and ended with, I have no idea. But you think we will step it up in terms of compensating a coach at a level that's commensurate with this top 15 to 20 job we think it is?

You have to because whenever people do that, Maryland's a top blank job. It's easy to do that based on our own sort of self-importance, what we think it ought to be. Well, okay, but you want to just do the math on the numbers that these guys that everybody thinks are candidates. and see what they make, and see what their practice facility situation is at their school, and then realize the circumstances they're in and compare them to Maryland. People say, oh, they paid Mark a bunch of money. Yeah, he certainly was in the mix of what decently compensated coaches, but all the guys you say you want that are on these lists,

they all make more than Turgent made already. And their assistants did too. That's the other thing. You need to have a pool, and that's kind of where people, But you've got to be real sort of inside the program to understand that. You've got to have a pool for your assistance that aren't going to have them having to leave to go to Marquette and or to Paul to make, you know, competitive money. But yeah, you just look at the people that are on all your lists and look at how much money they make. Now, this is where you say, okay, well, we just got to go get them.

All right, all of you that love it, well, then are you ready to step up, write some checks yourself, and make sure that Damon's got a war chest to get who you want? Because that's how stuff gets done. You know, that's how things get done. You've got to be funded with that. But my guess is that Maryland will recognize what happened in this last 10 years, how the fractures within the program and the disconnect from the fan base created a moment here where you've got to get this right. You've got to get somebody to get people excited.

And so you've got to pay the dough for that. So figure it out. All right. I'll talk to you later. Thanks. Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas to you, too. That's it for today. Tommy will be with me tomorrow. We'll preview Washington, Philadelphia,

will obviously know then more about who's available and who isn't.