The Kevin Sheehan Show - When Losing Equals A Win

Episode Date: January 5, 2024

Kevin on Commanders-Dallas to finish up the regular season. Jay Gruden jumped on with a preview of week 18 along with his sizzling "NFL Lock of the Week" (11-4 ATS). Kevin had 3 NFL "Smell Test" picks as well.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. First damage to 34, Williams. No place to go. Redskins say the ball is loose and they got it.

What was that highlight that Kevin brought us in with? It was just Sean Taylor picking up a fumble and returning it for a touchdown. He did it a few times. But that one was in a playoff game. 18 years ago this Sunday in Tampa Bay's Raymond James Stadium, the last time Washington won a playoff game. 18 years ago, January 7, 2006 was the last time Washington won a playoff game. It's not the longest playoff game win drought. The Lions own that.

They won a playoff game in January of 1992. They beat the Cowboys prior to coming to RFK Stadium for the NFC championship game. The Lions will have a chance to end the longest playoff drought this coming weekend when they will play a wild card home game in the first round of the playoffs. Miami hasn't won a playoff game since 2001. They'll have a chance to break that skid. and the Raiders haven't won a playoff game since 2003. So there are three teams with a longer playoff wind drought than Washington, but Washington, along with the Raiders, won't have a chance to end it next weekend.

The show today presented as always by Wind Donation, call them at 86690 Nation or go to Windonation.com for their best deal of the year. Washington won that playoff game, by the way, with 120 total yards of offense. At the time, it was an NFL record for a winning playoff team in terms of the lowest total yardage. Mark Brunell was 7 to 15 for 41 yards in the game. Sean Taylor had that touchdown, which gave Washington a 14-0 lead, and they would go on to win the game 17 to 10. And he also in that game, if you recall, was kicked out.

He was ejected for spitting at Michael Pittman, the Tampa Bay running back. The next week they were in Seattle, and Washington had a chance in that game. They were up 3-0 in the second quarter, and Carlos Rogers had an interception in his hands with nobody in front of him, and he dropped it. That would have been a 10-0 lead and maybe insurmountable, considering they had knocked Sean Alexander out of the game. NFL MVP that year, and Washington was really good defensively. But they were hurting offensively by the time they got to that postseason. They lost that game, and Seattle went on to a Super Bowl, not a Super Bowl victory, but a Super Bowl visit where they lost to Ben Rathesberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Starting Monday, it's a new era. It's a new era in Washington football. Josh Harris

and ownership will have a chance to put their fingerprints on the football operation, something they really haven't had a chance to do since they took over the team in July. Although, as we talked about yesterday, I think from a quarterback standpoint, Jacoby Berset should not be the backup to Sam Howell on Sunday. And just moments ago, Ron Rivera, when asked about who the backup quarterback will be, He said, we don't know, and quote, we'll get all of that set probably later today when we go through the roster, closed quote. I think that this would be the first moment, as I've said a couple of times here over the last week and a half, where if Josh Harris were to get involved and to say, hey, really don't want to see Jacoby Brousset come off the bench and potentially lead a comeback on Sunday.

against the Cowboys, Jake Fromm would be a better backup quarterback. I do find it interesting that these things haven't been resolved yet. Just a bit suspicious about how all of this conversation has gone down this week between head coach and ownership. But Washington is going to be sitting a lot of players. There will be a number of players that play Sunday that will be called up from practice squad that have just been signed here. They got a lot of injuries for starters. And I think you will see, like you did last week, a lot of backup players and perhaps several players that you're going to need a program to identify. Look, the team they're putting out there, even if it was a great quarterback on Sunday quarterbacking this team, is overmatched.

They're overmatched by a motivated team, a team motivated to win a division and to nail down the two seed. I think, actually, Jake Fromm will be the backup quarterback. I've just been interested in the way it's played out here this week and a little bit skeptical as to why it's played out the way it's played out. With Sam being named a little bit later than normal, and here we are on a Friday afternoon, and they're being dodgy about the backup quarterback in a meaningless game. But anyway, I think Jake Fromm will be the backup, and I think all will be fine because they are completely overmatched, and Washington will lose the game on Sunday.

My prediction here in a moment, Jay Gruden next smell test to end the show. Jay Gruden, by the way, 11 and 4 now on his lock of the week. He had the Packers last week against the Vikings. He is on fire. We'll get his final regular season lock of the week during our conversation. This tweet from Jay, thought I would struggle, Kevin, with rooting for Dallas against Washington.

I'm right around your age. remember what these two games meant every year. But there's no fire for this one. Lose and lose big while they're at it. From Sandy, Kevin, it's Dallas. We grew up on this. And for this game, we can inflict the highest amount of hurt on them. Can't do it.

H-T-T-R, exclamation point. Look, I think the majority of you are with me on this. Lose the game Sunday. Let's fight a better fight moving forward. with more leverage to create the better fight moving forward. By the way, rooting for Dallas, rooting for Washington to win, just gives the Eagles the division title.

But I understand those longtime fans in the hatred for the Cowboys. There is a way, and a caller brought this up, and I had not really considered it. But there is a way where if Washington tied Dallas, it could cost Dallas the division title, and Washington could still end up with the number two overall pick. But you'd need New England and Arizona to both win if you ended up tying Dallas. So if you want to root for that, go ahead.

But that means you've got to root for Arizona to beat Seattle and New England to beat the Jets. New England Jets, by the way, will be a snow game in Foxboro on Sunday. But look, I've talked a lot about this. I think 2-22, the changing of the name, the changing of the brand impacted this even more so. But I was already well on my way to understanding that as it stands right now, the Washington-Dalice rivalry is for all intents and purposes dormant, if not dead. Dallas fans consider Philadelphia to be their chief rival. They probably consider the 49ers in some way to be a bigger rival than Washington. I looked this up earlier today.

Washington has not played a game against the Cowboys with a winning record since 2018. The Alex Smith injury game against Houston, the next game was four days later on Thanksgiving. Washington was six and four. That's the last time Washington played Dallas with a winning record. It's been five years. So these games have meant nothing. And that's what rivalries are built on. significant games, meaningful games.

It's been a long time. Look, I think the last game that really mattered was 2016. Thanksgiving, Washington coming off that win over Green Bay, Dallas at 9 and 1. Washington was 6'3 and 1, and that was a hyped game, an anticipated game. I think the last one in the series, really, and that's seven seasons ago. So, yeah, I'm not on board with the, I remember. how it used to be, I can't root for Dallas against my team. I can easily do it this particular Sunday because it's significant that it happens. It's not about whether or not you get it right at

two or three. It's not about whether or not number 10 or number 15 end up having much better careers than what you draft at number two or number three. We all understand that as football fans. It's about leverage. The number two pick in this draft will have an inordinate, of leverage compared to most drafts because of the high ceiling perceived quarterbacks in this draft. I'd like to hand the new regime, the number two or number three pick, five picks in the first three rounds. By the way, the number two or number three pick in every subsequent round, as I've pointed out before, it's not just the first round. You know, you don't want to pick fifth in the second round, third round, fourth round,

fifth, round, sixth round, seventh round, if you can pick second in those rounds as well, and they have all of those picks. So you're talking about really leverage at every point in every round of the NFL draft with a loss to Dallas on Sunday, maybe a tie, but more likely a loss. And then we can gear up for meaningful games down the road with a roster that has a chance to play games against the Cowboys with winning records and games that, actually mean something. Anyway, 35 to 6, Cowboys over Washington Sunday. I think this is a major mismatch. I think the Cowboys will start off quickly. I can't imagine that Washington's going to get any kind of pass rush pressure. And if they do, who's going to cover C.D. Lamb? Who's going to

cover that big tight end that's always open for them? Ferguson. The Cowboys are rolling right now. They're not a big run team, as we know, but it wouldn't surprise me, and I'm sure it wouldn't surprise you, if Pollard and Dowell end up, you know, rushing for, you know, 120 yards combined. I see this as a quick blowout and a 21-0 kind of a lead early and a 35 to 6 Cowboys final. Of course, there is Sam Howe playing in this final game. One more chance to evaluate Sam. One more chance for Sam to make an impression, but he doesn't have a full allotment around him on Sunday. But he didn't for the Dallas game last year either, so there is that. But I'm glad Sam's playing. Like, I was glad that he ended up playing against the 49ers. Another game to sort of evaluate him, and I would hope

that the game plan is very similar to the one that Eric Bianami had last week, which I thought was much more protective, much smarter, and gave Sam a chance to get confidence and thrive a little bit more than he had been. This final NFL weekend, this is, you know, you got tomorrow, Texans, Colts tomorrow night for a playoff spot. The Steelers can force the bills to win the game or miss the playoffs on Sunday night if they beat the Ravens tomorrow. And then on Sunday, Jags at Titans, bucks at Panthers for division wins, and then the Packers

play the Bears in a win and get-in situation. Remember, they were in that position last year against the Lions, and the Lions beat them with nothing to play for, and the Bears are playing awfully well. That Sunday night game is one to really look forward to. The bills have been rolling, obviously, the Dolphins are banged up a little bit, but the bills have won four in a row, five out of the last six. The only loss coming in that Thanksgiving weekend game, in overtime to the Eagles, 37 to 34. They are a much bigger threat in the AFC playoffs than Pittsburgh would be. I think most people would agree with that.

I like the bills in that game. It's not a smell test pick, so I can tell you right now, I like the bills to win the game Sunday night against Miami. But I do think there could be some surprises on Sunday. You'll hear some of those in the smell test at the end of. the show. There was news that I wanted to mention that I actually mentioned the other day that it's college football related, it's Maryland related, but I had mentioned to you guys the other day that I had heard that Talia Leah, Tungavailoa was going to try to play another year in

college football. If he gets a waiver from the NCAA, he's got to apply for it and get it. And if he does, he's going to transfer and play a sixth season somewhere else. Well, it was announced today that he's entered the transfer portal. And now he waits to see if he gets the waiver to be able to play a sixth year. And there is a lot of discussion that he'd want to play somewhere in South Florida where the family would be close to Brother Tua. All right, that's a quick opening segment. But I wanted to get to Jay Gruden, and we will do that right after these words from a few of our sponsors.

The show presented by Window Nation, call them at 86690 Nation or go to WindowNation.com. Mention my name, you get a free estimate, and you'll get access to their deal right now, which is 50% off all Windows styles and 0% interest for five years. 86690 Nation or Window Nation.com. Jay Gruden next. Jay Gruden is with us as he is every Friday during football season. Jay is 11 and 4 against the number with his NFL lock of the week. That's ridiculous.

Stay tuned for this week's pick. He's on fire. As are the surfside fajita boxes, they are so good. Fahita chicken, steak, veggies, all the fixings in a convenient grab-and-go box. Your favorite spot for tacos in D.C. makes it easier than ever to feed your family and to feed them fast. It's all convenient in a box. I've gotten it multiple times myself.

The fajita chicken steak veggies, incredible flavor, so convenient and easy to put together. You can hop online and order in advance to pick up or order for delivery. You can learn more about Surfside's fajita boxes at SurfsideDC.com. We will wait on your lock of the week. We'll get to that. A lot of people probably listening don't want me to bury the lead, but we've got a lot of football to talk about.

But I will ask you, without you disclosing what your lock of the week is right here, how good do you feel about it? It's going to be a difficult week just because you've got your games that mean a lot, then you have your games that don't mean a lot. You have some teams that have to play for something. Some teams that don't. But sometimes you don't take against, don't bet against the teams that aren't playing for anything because they still have players that are

going to play hard if that makes sense. You've got to be careful. It's a tough week. It makes a lot of sense. In fact, I did talk about this yesterday that over many years, if you play these games where one team has to win against one team that doesn't and you take the points and play the team that doesn't have anything to play for, it works out much more than you would think. It works out. Just in looking at a couple of the games, like Jacksonville's, got to win. They're only a three and a half point favorite right now at Tennessee. The bucks are only four and a half point favorites at Carolina. The Packers are only three point favorites at home against the Bears. There's just a lot of people out there that are going to assume the team that has to

win will win and win big. But you're right. A lot of these teams play hard. You know, we've seen that here down the stretch of the season, Jay, the Giants, the Cardinals, the Patriots, a lot of teams that completely out of it are just are playing some of their best football of the year. Yeah, the Bears might be the hottest team in the NFL. Yeah, I mean, they've won something like four out of the last five, something like that. Yeah, with a close loss to the Browns, a game they should have won.

Exactly right. So, anyway, all right, we'll talk about the rest of the card when we get to it, and we'll get to your lock of the week coming up. So on Washington, this, you know, clearly appears to be the end of the Ron Rivera era. And on Monday, a whole new offseason with change is coming and maybe lots of change to the organization as a whole.

As you look back on this Washington season, what went wrong? I think the number one thing was defense. And I can't really put my finger on why. Was it personnel related? I feel like they had good personnel. Was it coaching, whatever it might be. I think this disappointing defense really was a stunning part of it. You kind of knew that Sam,

how would struggle a little bit as first year as a starter, which was to be expected, but you thought the defense would keep them in games, but actually it was a reversal. Offense was keeping them in games early on, and the defense was letting them down. You know, when the offense played good,

the defense didn't play good. And, you know, I just always mentioned that, you know, I had four first rounders on the line. I had first rounder linebacker. You know, went out and got Kendall Fuller. Cam Crull's a good safety. So you just, it just, hard to figure out why the defense struggled so bad.

Yeah, really was stunning how bad it was. In fact, it ended up being one of the worst defenses in the league, and right now it's one of the worst teams in the league. There are a lot of people that believe that had Ron Rivera and Eric B. enemy made the decision to go to Jacoby Brissette earlier in the year, that they would have won more games. How many more games with that bad defense? I don't think many more.

I think Sam Hal competed. Sam Hal did some good things there for a while. It wasn't until probably the last month, last month and a half maybe that he's played pretty poorly. You look at his QBR and all that stuff, it's been down for the last five or six games. But early on, the first 10 games, I think Sam held it a good job keeping his team. They won three or four games with them. So I don't think it would have been many more personally.

Maybe you have a bias on this question, but if you were an owner and or general manager and you were in the market for head coach. I know you haven't because you told me before. It's not like you're very familiar with a lot of the candidates other than Ben Johnson. But what type of head coach would you look for? That's a great question. You know, it's hard to say, do you want to get an offensive-minded guy for, you know, who's your quarterback going to be going to go out and draft?

If you're going to draft a quarterback, I would recommend an offensive-minded guy that knows how to work with quarterback. So it doesn't have to be one of the young up-and-comers. It might be a more established guy that's been in a league for a lot. while that can really knows how to coach a football team, not just a young guy who's never been a head coach before. Everybody's high on Ben Johnson that deserves it. I think the kid at Houston probably should get some looks because he's done a great job with C.J. Strout, but, you know, get a veteran guy that knows how to work with quarterbacks and knows how to put a staff together and a veteran coach, I think, would be good for a rookie quarterback or Sam Hout

moving forward. What else are you looking for? You know, an offensive guy, if you're going to draft a quarterback if you're going to have a young quarterback, et cetera. But what are you looking for in the person? A strong-minded guy because it's a tough market in Washington, and you have to have the mental toughness to understand that when things don't go well, it's going to be a thunderstorm on top of your head. You've got to be able to have a very strong umbrella and take it and move forward and continue to work hard.

I think the most important thing moving forward for Washington is you get your coach in place, but you've got to have a GM too that really works hard and is very established knowing how to pick players. And that's the most important thing. Is the head coach going to have total control? Do you want that as an owner? Do you want your head coach to have that much on a plate? And some coaches will demand that.

If they want to go out and get a good coach like Ben Johnson, he might want to say, hey, I need total control. And is he experienced enough to do that? Or do you go out and get another coach in an established GM possibly to work together? So I think everybody puts this on us on the head coach, but you've got to be able to have a guy that knows how to pick players. I think that's equally important as the head coach. You just reminded me as something.

Was Kyle Smith a good evaluator of talent? Yeah, he worked really hard at it. He's very good. You know, those guys that put the time in and put the work in and know how to listen to coaches and the experts that they hire the scouts, take all the information in, and then make decisions. He's good at that. You just said something that I want to come back to

because we were actually talking about it. yesterday. And the reason we were talking about it is we played this clip with Dan Campbell and a sports talk radio host in Detroit, where the sports talk radio host thought that they shouldn't have gone for two after the penalty was called from the seven-yard line. First of all, do you have an opinion about what happened at the end of that Detroit-Dalice game? Yeah, I agree with the deal to go for two initially to try to get the win on the road and all that stuff. That was a good call. But once they got the penalty, I thought he should have kicked it. That's just me.

I think seven-yard line, fourth and goal at the seven or a two-point play from the seven, it's not an easy tack. It's not easy because you're facing multiple defenses that could happen. A drop eight cover two, you know, an all-out blitz. There's a lot of things that can happen. They can double your two best guys and play man-to-man. There's just so many things that can happen from the eight. You really, you're one-dimensional also.

There's no threat of a run at all. You have a quarterback that's not very mobile that can extend the play. that is very necessary from that part of the field, especially if they drop eight. You've got to be able to extend the play and have your quarterback move around, and that's not Jared's M-O. He's more a rhythm-throw,

and there's not a lot of rhythm throws that are available at the eight-yard line going in with one play. So I think they should have kicked it from there personally because it was a tough call for Ben Johnson to make. Before that happened, what did you make of the call in general, the, you know, illegal touching with Brad Allen. No, it was a bad call.

was 100% of bad call. It was something to Detroit practice. I know they planned it. They probably practiced Friday. They probably walked through to get on Saturday. I know the lineman knew how to report, because if you're an offensive line, and think about it, you have a chance to get the ball and win the game,

you're going to make sure you do the right thing before the play starts. You're not going to go, oh, I forgot. Sorry, Coach. No, they're going to report. They just messed it up. The referee messed up. There's no offense and butts about it. You didn't give any sort of credit to, not credit,

but give any sort of deflection of blame from the referee because Detroit tried to kind of slight of hand it with number 70, Skipper over there at the same time, who had reported as an eligible. You know, you had multiple guys that looked like they were trying to confuse Dallas a little bit, but they ended up maybe confusing the referee. That could be some part of it, but the referee's got to pay attention. I mean, it's a critical part of the game. It's a last play of the game almost, and it's a two-point play, so pay attention. They send six guys over there. You've got to listen to what is being told to you, and you've got to adjust your call and understand who's eligible and who's not eligible.

It's not that hard. I mean, it's one guy saying he's eligible, and one guy saying he's not eligible or not he's not saying anything. They're just over there. You've got to pay attention. During your tenure, did we ever throw to a tackle eligible? I don't know. I know we did in Tampa.

We threw a sap a couple times when he reported eligible. We tried that. We had a play dialed up for Trent Williams a couple times. never got it off the script. So no, I don't think we did. Not that I can recall. By the way, you're right. I mean, whether it's analytics or just common sense,

it would appear that Campbell just was so emotional off of the call, he was just like, fuck it, we're going for it anyway. From the seven-yard line. Yeah, I think that's even more reason to kick it, just to get your team back. Let's get under control here. It's a panic. Everybody's yelling at the referees.

Hey, I reported it. No, it didn't. And they're all going crazy. Let's kick it going overtime. regroup and let's kick their ass in overtime. I believe he should have done. I mean, Dan's done a great job, obviously. He's made some decisions like that all year that have not only worked but not worked,

but his team has responded in a big way if you look at their record. So the reason I brought that up about the back and forth between this Sports Talk radio host in Detroit and Dan Campbell is because you said, you said this is a really tough market. And you've said that. Mike Shanahan has said that. Ron Rivera has said that, and I and others in the market have pushed back at times, just saying it's really not a tough sports town, D.C. What made it tough to you for you? Well, it's a tough market. It's one of the most looked at to what was anyway,

when the Redskins were around. You know, it's the Redskins and Cowboys, on the top markets in the National Football League, and everybody's got an opinion, and there's, you know, every team, you're right, every team is tough when you don't win. It just seems like Washington is a little bit more involved, their fan base, and the media base a little bit more involved in other markets. That's all. I would argue with you that Philly and New York and places like that, I mean, in Philly right now, after getting to the Super Bowl,

they're screaming for people's heads on sports talk radio and fans are every day. Yeah, there are teams that are. Yeah. probably a little bit more involved. I think Philly is one of them for sure. Philly's one of the tougher ones, the Giants. Jets are always a tough one. But those are the big city markets, just like Washington.

Yeah. I think the thing that I would definitely agree with you on is that the football team, the Redskins, the football team, the commanders, are the number one entity in town by far. So they get the most attention, whereas in some other much bigger, more passionate sports, towns, there are a lot of teams that get a lot of the attention, where this town is sort of dominated by one team more than any other. I don't know if you heard Ron Rivera's comments the other day about quarterback, but he said that if Alex Smith hadn't gotten hurt, in the midst of saying quarterback's the most important thing, obviously, he said if Alex Smith hadn't gotten hurt, he would have never gotten the job here because you guys had it going. Did you

hear that and what's your reaction to it? Yeah, well, it's nice of them to say. You know, I'd like to feel that there's some truth to that. You know, I don't know what would have happened the second year or the third year, or whatever it might be, but we were pretty good. I mean, we were six and three when he got hurt. I believe we would have been Houston. We had a pretty easy schedule.

We had Jacksonville. We had Tennessee left, and we had a two-and-a-half game lead at the time when he got hurt, and our two-game leader, a game and a half lead in a division. I think we would have probably won that division and gone to the playoffs for sure if Alex doesn't get hurt, but, you know, if Dog Rabbit, right? If the dog would have stopped take crap, he would have caught the rabbit. So he unfortunately did get hurt, but we were playing pretty good, and Alex is a great quarterback for us for what we were doing, and we were hitting on, we were playing pretty

good defense. We're playing good field position. Unfortunately, both quarterbacks got hurt, him and Cole. What was that expression you just used if dog rabbit? Yeah. I've never heard that. I've never heard that before. Just real quickly.

The dog wouldn't have to stop the big of crap. He would have caught the rabbit. Okay, got it. Got it. I've never heard that one. Maybe it's a lot of time. Maybe it's a Midwest thing. Who knows?

We would have one if somebody, yeah, sure, hit dog rabbit. All right. Last one on the quarterback for now, because I think we've exhausted the quarterback conversation all year long. But last week, you were okay with Sam being benched. and as it turns out, Jacoby Brissette had an injured hamstring. Sam had to play against the 49ers. How do you think he played? You know, he did some good things, obviously.

They just, obviously, they can't put drives together. They had a really good drive. They had a good stomp route to Terry McCorn and a good back shoulder fade to him. But that's really all they did the entire game. You know, he tried to move around and make some plays. He missed some throws. They just are very, you know, it's just very hard. for them to manufacture drives because they're really not good at running the ball.

They're not getting separation consistently at wide receiver. They're not really getting much from the tight end position. The back side of the backfield. So it's been a struggle for them to get yards consistently, and that's why they are where they are. This game, you know, much of the fan base, this would have never been thought of 10 years ago, 15 years ago, certainly beyond that. where you've got a fan base, and I know your position, and I totally get it.

I think most reasonable people understand. Nobody that's participating and competing on Sunday cares about what the fans think in terms of losing this game. But it's really an amazing situation in which I don't think I can recall a game against the Cowboys in which our fan base wanted our team to lose as much as it does on Sunday. Look, I don't even think we need to root for it because I think it's going to happen anyway. But the players that they're going to put on the field organizationally, I think a lot of players are going to rest. John Allen probably doesn't play.

A lot of starters aren't going to play. A lot of starters didn't play last week. But coaching a game like this, you've already explained, you're not coaching to lose a game. You're competitors. You're coaching to win. but when you have a bunch of players that haven't played a lot together, how hard is that? Oh, it's hard. It's very hard.

It's a great opportunity for those players and those players that are playing. They may not be as talented as the ones that aren't playing. Obviously, they're not because they're not starters. But they're going to come out and play hard. It's because they're playing for jobs next year, possibly either here or somewhere else. So it's very important for them, put their best for, put their best tape on film for everybody to see, and they're going to compete because nobody wants to. wants to get their ass beat when you line up against another human being.

You're not going to lay it out. I'm just, okay, go ahead, Pollard, run for 20-yard game. They're going to compete and try to play physical and create turnovers and do the things they need to do. It's just I don't think they're going to be good enough personnel-wise to beat the Cowboys, but they're going to compete and play hard. Do you think, we were talking about this yesterday, Dallas just seems to be one of those teams that if for whatever reason the game was close and competitive, let's just say

late third quarter heading into the. the fourth quarter, that they could choke it away. Do you agree with that? Do you agree like they, if it's... They did last year. Sam Hall of the first start last year, beat them last game of the year, right? Yeah, but they needed Philly to lose too to the Giants, and Philly was a double-digit favorite. So it wasn't like they controlled their own destiny in that. This is a massive game for that organization. They win the division. They get the two seed. They get potentially two home games. You know, they haven't won more than one playoff game since the last time they won a Super Bowl in 1995. But just DAC McCarthy, organizationally, do you have this sense that I do that if it's close,

they could gag it away? Yes, for sure. You know, people get a little tight when the game's on the line and there's so much on the line. You know, you can say that we got a little tight and we play the Giants. The Giants had nothing to play for. No doubt. Unfortunately, they play Dominic Rogers Comer. who was their best corner, and he had two picks.

But yeah, I mean, it happens. I mean, you feel the pressure, and then when teams aren't supposed to win, they're in the game, they play harder, they play with more passionate, play with more energy, and, you know, it's hard to get your team out of that trunk sometimes when you're supposed to win.

You tell your team you're supposed to win. They read all the press clip. They were 13-and-a-half-point favorites. We're going to blow this team out, and all of a sudden the fourth quarter, it's tied, or you're down three. Then panic sets in, and bad things happen.

It could happen this week. Let's go back to that game, actually, now that you bring it up, because I actually compared it to the exact same game yesterday and talking about how the Cowboys might feel. What happened that day? I don't think I've ever asked you this. What happened January 1st, 2017? Your team was a bad defensive team, as we've talked about, many times.

But offensively, 2016, you guys were tired. top five worst case in every statistical measurement that year. The Giants were a good football team. They played their starters in that game. But what happened in that final game when the Giants had literally nothing to play for and you guys were playing for a wild card spot? We had a critical red zone turnover. We were driving and had a critical red zone turnover. We just didn't get plays going. You know, there's never one thing. It was multiple. multiple things. Might have been our center,

might have been our receiver, might have been a drop path, might have been a parent row, just a lot of things offensively. We just didn't click for whatever reason. The Giants always gave us a hard time. They had a good defense, good defensive coordinator,

and they always gave, they gave a lot of teams problems, and they gave us problems in that game, and then we had a chance to win it. We called, you know, a play, and Kirk stepped up and two-man, and Dominic Rogers undercut the dagger, and Kirk could have run for about 25 yards,

unfortunately, he thought he saw a window, and Camarty picked it, and that was it. But they just, they played good. We just didn't play our best game. And I think maybe there might have been a little sense of,

hey, Giants are going to lay down because they have nothing to play for, but they didn't lay down at all. They played hard. And just like we mentioned, the longer we let them be involved in close in the game, the harder they played. Had we jumped out on them early,

10, nothing, 13 nothing, I think it would have been obviously a different story. They probably would have laid down a little bit and run the clock out and tried to get out of their healthy, but they were in the game, so they called their best stuff and beat them. This is the game that a lot of fans point to and say this was the problem with Kirk,

that he couldn't get it done when it needed to get done. Do you agree with that or not? No, I don't agree with that. I just think there was a total team effort. I had a lot into that, too, our game plan probably wasn't as good as it should have been for that type of game, the importance of that game. We thought we had a good one going in. We thought we were going to dice them up pretty good, but unfortunately it didn't work out.

Kirk didn't have his best stuff. He tried to throw a back shoulder. throw in the red zone and the receiver didn't adjust to it, and Rogers Camardi picked it, and obviously the pick at the end of the game was a killer. But there were a lot of plays in that game that we just didn't execute the way we should have for a game of that importance,

and that's on me more than it is on Kirk. That back shoulder was to, what's his face, Harris, right? Yeah, I think it was Harris, yeah. Maurice Harris? Is that got him forget him. Maurice Harris. Yeah. Yeah, Morris Harris.

The thing that I remember because I was a Kirk fan, and I'm trying to take them off the hook for it, is that they ran the ball down your throat in the first half. They rushed for like 120 yards in the first half and dominated time of possession. And that was part of it, too. We didn't get a lot of opportunities. And when we did, it's like, holy cow, we got school right now. And probably forced the issue a little bit too much and probably got out of our game plan earlier than we wanted to just because, golly, you're standing on the sideline for seven, eight minutes, and they got the ball.

Like, you run out there, okay, we got to, we got to, we got to get in there quick. You know, we may never get the ball back. You know, that is, you sense that as a fan watching the game. I've always thought as a fan, the worst, the worst thing to root for when you're rooting for your team, or the worst situation when you're rooting for a team, is when you're bad defensively, because it gets very frustrating when you can't get the ball back. And to your point, when you get it. back, it's almost like you better score on that drive or you're going to be down two scores and then

three scores, et cetera. That's, there was a lot of pressure on each drive. And that's, that's the situation I was trying to describe with the Cowboy Game Sunday is if they got into that situation in the second half, they'd really start to feel it. Yeah, exactly right. It does happen. I mean, it happens. The problem is I don't think Washington can control the clock like that. Right. They don't want the ball. You know, I think the key. in a game like this is to control the clock, just like the Giants did. Get seven, eight-played drives, 12-play drives, keep Prescott and C.D. Lamb on the bench, but I just don't think that Washington has the ability to do that because they have a middle run all year consistently. Right. All right.

I'll tell you what, why don't we just get to your lock of the week right now? Because then I want to ask you about some of these games. And if it's your lock of the week, you'll just get right to it. So Jay is now 11 and 4 against the spread. That's lights out as most of the games. you who bet, understand. So what's your lock of the week? My lock of the week this week is going to be. This is a tough one. I got a couple of them that I'm on the fence on. I like taking teams that are red-hot, even though they're not in the playoffs. So I'm debating between the bears. I like the bears against the Packers at home. Justin Field is playing for a lot right now. This is really an interesting team. They stop the run extremely well. They're going

of force. Jordan love to throw it a lot. So I'm going to take the Bears. I think Matt Heberflus has done an unbelievable job this last couple months of the season. I think Justin Fields is really making this future of the Bears decision, one of the toughest decisions maybe ever. Because usually when you have the number one pick, it's usually obviously going to be a quarterback because your quarterback's not very good,

but they have a quarterback that's playing better. And the Bears defense is playing extremely well. I think they're top one or two against the run, and that's what the Packers need to do, and they're not going to be able to do it. They're going to force Jordan love to throw it, and he's played well. I get it, but the Bears defense feast on known passing situation. Chicago Plus 3, I love that pick, to try to go 12 and 4. What would you do?

Fields or, I mean, I know you haven't looked at the quarterbacks yet, but I guess my question then is really, what do you think about fields and building around him? Well, first of all, they got to decide what they're going to do with Iberflus. Are they going to keep him, which I imagine they do. would keep him the way he's performed the last month and a half. Like I said, I think one of the better coaching jobs in the NFL the last two months. And then you just have to, I know the fans I think are leaning towards wanting to keep fields now. And I know the players want to keep fields.

But you just got to really do your work on this Caleb Williams and Drake, May. Because if they're in the Heisman trophy winner. So if you feel like you can upgrade the position, you always have to upgrade that position if you feel like it's an upgrade. And you're not in the feelings business. You've got to do your work very much so. And you got to get to know Caleb. You've got to know Drake May.

And if you feel like they're better moving forward, then you've got to go with them. But if you feel like Justin Fields is your guy, he's young, he's talented. You can draft around them. You can trade for draft capital. They have a lot of great options. But I personally would probably, just right now what I've seen, I'd probably take Caleb just because of his ability, his armed talent. It works well in Chicago.

It works well in wind. It works well in snow. His ability to make place off schedule is obviously second to none. So that's where I would lean right now, but I'd have to get to know the kid and see what his mental makeup is before I've made a decision like that. It really is one of the more interesting decisions. And I don't think there's an easy answer to it. I mean, I've heard the people say, well, wait a minute. Justin Fields has had enough time.

You've seen who he is. I don't know if that's true. And if we've seen who he is, maybe it's about the last five or six weeks. I think it's a really interesting decision. All right. Let's get your quick thoughts on the biggest games of the weekend. We'll start Saturday night, Houston and Indy for a playoff spot in Indy. Who do you like?

That's a great game. I've got to check the injury report, because I know Tumple's on it. I think Robert Woods is on it. Miller Brown, I think is on it. I guess if those guys are playing. If they're all playing, I know they're worth out tank bell, but I'm taking Houston just because Jonathan Taylor has to run the ball effectively for Indianapolis to have a chance.

He probably will, but Houston's got an excellent run, defense. I think they're only averaging giving up 3.3 yards per carry. And the Bay Gardner-Mintchru, one-dimensional, I think, would be the key in this game. But if Johnson-Taylor gets going, then obviously India will have a great chance. But I'm taking Houston. I just like the way C.J. Straub plays. I think the Nico Ryan, I think the winner of this game, the coach is going to get coach of the year, him or Stefancy. So I think both coaches don't an outstanding job, but I just like Houston's team a little bit better. Wait, you think, see, I think Stifansky's got it wrapped up.

I don't know. I mean, he's obviously done a great job. He's a blackout and a great defense, but these two guys picked on the top five. I mean, Indianapolis, their top pick got hurt. They're doing it with Gardner Minshu, and Houston is number two pick, and they have a chance to win the division. No, I mean, D'Amico Ryan's for a while there, it was like this seems to be a no-brainer. A lot of people were saying Dan Campbell for a lot of the year, but Detroit was the favorite to win that division. I just think when you're on your fourth quarterback and you're about to win, you know, you could potentially win 12 games in a season, that that's, I, I, no, I'm not arguing with it. But no, but I'm with you. D'Amico Ryan, Houston was thought going into this season along with Arizona to be a guaranteed to have a top two or three pick. Exactly, right.

The defense wasn't that good. Their defense was not good last year at all. Their defense was playing well, you know, Will Anderson. I mean, the development they've had with these young kids. kids throughout the season. It's been fun to watch. You know, the three or four games that CJ got hurt on, obviously hurt them. And Tank Dell's injury hurt them. But what he's done with that young football team has has been amazing. Same with the coach in Indianapolis.

I mean, he's done a great job as well with Gardner-Minshoe and the guy that he has, and John and Taylor sitting out for three or four games. Those two guys have been great. I actually, and I think Indies, the big, like, everybody knows Houston with Stroud, Jacksonville with Lawrence and Indy's just been maybe the biggest mystery team of the NFL season if they end up in the postseason. I can't tell you right now why they've won nine games. I can't either. I can't either. I mean, they're both very similar in a way they play. Gus Bradley's done a good job of that defense at Indy as well. I think the last month and a half

that defense has played extremely well. They have multiple guys that can get pressure. they play good coverages, sound defense. D'Amigo Ryan, same thing. He brought a mentality with them from San Francisco, tough physical mentality on defense. Obviously, the success is C.J. Stroud and have good young players on offense. They have tough physical guys on the edge

with Robert Woods and Noah Brown that are digging out safeties and doing things they need to do. They're both teams of overachieved for sure. That's why I'm picking the winner of this game to be the coach of the year because of the way they've overachieve with the players that they have. So let's stay in that division.

Does the winner win the division because Jacksonville loses to Tennessee, or did they just end up with a wild card? Jacksonville beats Tennessee. Because I have a sense that Tennessee was one of the games you were considering for your lock of the week. No, it wasn't. I think it's going to be a great game, though. I think Mike Grable is going to get that team ready to go. He's going to bring out his best pet box. He's got to get that team ready.

It's a division rival, of course, and Brable is a very highly competitive guy. and the Jaguars, I throw out the Carolina game because Carolina is awful. The other team I was leaning towards was Tampa Bay because I watched Carolina first hand. I watched every play that Jacksonville game. They're a bad, bad, bad, bad football team. I mean, their offense is absolutely horrific. They don't do anything well. They can't run the ball and they can't throw it.

Defensively, they miss tackles. They're just not good. So that was the other tough one. But Tennessee, I think, will give Jacksonville all they want because the games before that Carolina game, Jacksonville really struggle out. on both sides of the ball, moving the ball, running the ball, tackling, defense was poor. I just think Tennessee is a dangerous team right now for Jacksonville at this time at Tennessee. It's funny about the Panthers because I had this conversation with Scott Van Pelt on my radio show yesterday,

and we were discussing who's the worst team in the league. And I said, you could make the case, it's Washington right now. And he said, no, it's Carolina. But Carolina, before last week, they had covered three out of four games, because I had them a couple of times, and they rolled up like 400 yards and barely lost to the Packers two weeks ago. I know they were awful last week against Jacksonville, and Bryce Young's had a struggle all season long. All right, back to the games that matter. Do you think Tampa Bay gets it done in the NFC South?

Yes, it sounds like at Carolina. Yeah, I do. I think they get it done. Baker had a rough game last week, and I think he bounced back in a big way. New Orleans has a pretty good defense. They've always had a good defense. They've always played well against Mike Evans for whatever reason. And I think they bounce back in a big way against Carolina.

Bears, you've got them in your lock of the week, but do they win the game out right plus the three? I think they do. I think they do. I just like the way they're playing. I think they're playing a lot of confidence right now. I know they don't have anything to play for moving forward, but a lot of players do. Like Justin Fields, he's got a lot to prove, and he's playing extremely well at a high level. And we all know that the Packers' defense has struggled. mightily both against the run and the pass.

Chicago is multi-dimensional fields can run it. They can run the ball. And obviously, he's throwing the ball well to DJ more than the rest of the guys. That'd be two straight years, Matt Lafleur in the final game of the season at home for a playoff berth against a team that's got nothing to play for, not getting it done if it happens. All right, let's go to the game of the week, the final game of the regular season. Miami and Buffalo.

If Pittsburgh beats Baltimore tomorrow, and Baltimore's resting their starters, then Buffalo, it's a win or go-home situation. They win, they win the division, they're in as the two-seed, but if they lose, they're out altogether. So tell me how you size this game up. This is going to be a good one. I just think without Chub on defense, and I don't know if Waddle is going to play yet or not, I just think Buffalo right now is a better team. But it's going to be a good game, obviously, Pat Miami.

It's going to be a great day. It's going to be sunshiny. It's going to be, I've never heard of a team. You win, you're the two-seed. You lose your house. That is crazy to me. It's going to be a heck of a game, but I'm taking Buffalo. 1979, J, season finale, Washington at Dallas.

Washington had to win to be the one seed, and a loss put them out. They were up 13 with two minutes to go and lost a Roger Stawback in the final two minutes. season was over. They were two minutes away from the number one seed and the favorite to go to the Super Bowl, and instead they were out. It was the biggest gut punch loss for me as a fan of the team ever. Yeah, the Buffalo situation is interesting. What the hell was Chubb doing in the game at the end of that game? Why was Tua in the game as long as he was in the game? I don't know. I don't know that. You know, I think I can't explain that. You know, you want your guys to play, obviously,

but this is a tough game to play. And injuries can happen at any time. You know, you make the argument about preseason. You want your guys to play in a preseason. You want you guys to play these games. Some coaches want to tough up and do all that stuff. But I want my guys healthy for the next game. You know, I think once the game is meaningless and doesn't matter,

it's out of control, you've got to get them on the bench and get them ready for next week, especially your top-notch guys. Because you only have so many guys that are, you know, the high-paid, high-priced guys, you've got to keep those guys healthy. Your A-player's got to play in every game for you to be successful. And you look at the teams that are playing well right now. Most of their A-player players, their high-paid guys are playing,

and they're playing effectively. Now you start to lose a couple of them all of a sudden you're underdog at home. You know, I mean, that's what happens. Look, the 49ers and Ravens will go three weeks without playing their starters when they play their first playoff game, resting their starters here at the end. And they'll be the only team because there's only one buy. I think it's a tough call too. I mean, it's a really tough call. All right, thanks. Appreciate it, as always. Enjoy the weekend. We'll talk next week before the first wild card round playoff weekend of 2024. Thank you. Have a good weekend.

All right. Thanks, Kevin. Jay Gruden, everybody, will finish up with the last regular season smell test of the year. That's next right after these words from a few of our sponsors. The smell test presented by MyBooky. Go to MyBooky.orgie. Use my promo code, Kevin D.C. You'll get a cash bonus on your initial deposit. They've got all of the NFL final regular season week lines and totals up with plenty of prop bet opportunities as well.

Washington right now a 13-point dog at MyBooky in their season. finale against the Cowboys. The total at 47. MyBooky is a great first place to wager, and it's a great backup spot to wager if you've already got a spot. The point spreads and the money lines and the totals are all fair, and the pricing is fair. Some of you are overpaying on losses. You won't do that at MyBooky. Use my promo code, Kevin D.C. That's Kevin D.C. at my bookie.com.com.com.com.com.com. All right. The smell test last week, 7, 3, and 1, 7, 2, and 1 on the weekend had that Thursday game with NC State and the bowl game they were in. This is always a hard weekend to bet. I typically look for the teams that don't have anything to play for, getting short numbers against the teams that do have something to play for.

it's always been a decent strategy in the final week of the season. Tampa Bay is a four and a half point favorite against Carolina. Tampa's got to win the game to clinch the NFC South. Carolina, of course, playing for nothing. Look, I've had Carolina four times in the last five weeks, and I'm three and one on the Panthers. Not last week. I understand that was not even close against Jacksonville, but I'm going to take Carolina one more time plus the four and a half.

The public better is all over Tampa laying what they appear to be a short number against a bad team in a game that Tampa has to win. Jacksonville's a three and a half point spot over Tennessee in Nashville. Jacksonville's got to win that game. Tennessee's got nothing to play for. That too is being perceived as a very short line by the public. There's a lot of sharp money on Tennessee as well. Jacksonville's banged up.

Tennessee, you know, with Rabel, will come out. and play hard in this season finale. I like the Titans plus the three and a half. And then finally, the Packers just have to win to get in like they did last year against Detroit. They're laying three at Lambo against the Bears. I'll take the Bears plus the three. Boy, they've been playing really good football as Jay Gruden just discussed. That's his lock of the week.

I have it in my smell test as well. And those are the three selections. That's it on this final. NFL weekend of the year. I may have Michigan on Monday night, but I won't give that out officially until Monday's show. So Panthers plus four and a half, Titans plus three and a half, and the Bears plus the three. There you go. That is the smell test for week 18. All right, we are done for the day. Back on Monday should be a busy day for this franchise. for this fan base. We'll also have a lot of football from the weekend to talk about as well.

Back on Monday, enjoy the weekend.