The Kevin Sheehan Show - Wow on Howell + Rest of Washington's Draft

Episode Date: May 1, 2022

Kevin on the Washington's Day 2 and Day 3 draft. Joining him on the show is Pro FootbalL Focus Senior Analyst Nick Akridge. Nick is a Washington fan and had the PFF perspective. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. Hello. Sam Hound. How you doing? This one of the Washington commanders.

How are you doing? I'm good, Coach. Are you? You hanging in there? Yes, sir. I am. All right. Well, listen, we're up on the clock right now.

We want to take you with this pick coming up, first pick into fifth round. All right? Yes, sir. Thank you so much, folks. You won't grab up. I know. Hey, I know we're not going to. We expect good things, all right?

Yes, sir. Thank you so much, thank you. All right. We're going to be reaching back out to you a little bit later after they announce your name, all right? Sounds good, thank you. All right, kid. Talk to you later.

How about that? Ron Rivera calling Sam Howell to say, kid, we are taking you with the first pick in the fifth round. Washington drafted a quarterback. It wasn't just any quarterback. This was a quarterback that had some name recognition. Sam Howell fell. fell hard and longer than most expected, and Washington picked him in the fifth round.

This is a special weekend edition of the podcast, getting a show out that recaps the Washington draft from over the weekend. There was plenty on the Jahan Dotson pick on Friday show, so we will focus on day two, Friday night, and day three Saturday on this show today. If you missed Friday show, by the way, J.P. Finley was on it. John Kime was on it. It's there for you. Tons on the trade back and the Dotson selection. I like Dotson the player a lot. I liked him before the draft. I mentioned that he was among the three or four other receivers after Drake London that they would consider. Dotson, I didn't think they'd pick him at 11, and I was surprised that they picked him at 16. But Dotson was an outstanding, outstanding college receiver at Penn State.

I think it was a really good pick, whether or not they could have gotten them later with another tradeback is another thing. It's not a crazy thought, but they didn't want to chance it. I think last year on Jamie Davis, most of us were very curious as to who they had picked, and we didn't know much about him, and we questioned that a little bit

because it was very much a need pick. It felt like that. And maybe Dotson feels like that to some of you. I'm more confident in the Dotson. pick. I think he's going to be a good player for Washington. I think it'll be a factor right from the jump. I still think, regardless of what all of the draft value charts say, that for me anyway, in the moment on Thursday night, it felt like they should have gotten more than just a compensatory end of third round pick and a fourth rounder. You know, that's a crucial five spots in the early to midsection

of the first round of the NFL draft. But they know, they know what we're going to. was out there in terms of offers. And they had charts that they were working with as well. By the way, a reminder to those of you convinced that the only draft value charts that matter, the ones that showed Washington getting the better of the deal with New Orleans. Martin Mayhew admitted late Thursday night that they used two different charts, and one showed they got a really good deal on the trade back with the Saints, and the other one showed that they did not. So it's kind of a matter of some subjectivity with respect to the different ideas and the different weighted data that determines draft position

value on these respective charts. But look, time will tell if it made sense for them to pass on a player like Kyle Hamilton or even Chris Alave or Jameson Williams for what ended up being, yeah, four players. They traded back again with one of those picks. And the tradeback that started with New Orleans from 11 to 16 yielded a total. total of four players in this draft. I'll get to that flow chart in a moment or two. Now, as far as the other seven selections made by Washington in this draft, I'm going to go through them here in the opening segment of this podcast, and then Nick Ackridge is going to join us

on the show. Nick is a senior data analyst for pro football focus. But beyond that, Nick's a Washington fan. He lives in Northern Virginia. This is his team. We've had a bunch of PFF guys on at times in recent years, both on radio and the podcast, but Nick is truly focused on this team, his favorite team. So we will have Nick on, will get his thoughts, PFF's thoughts on the Skins draft, the Commander's Draft, a little later on in the show. Now, the overarching theme to this season, in my opinion, is they think they're close. Close to what? Close to being a legitimate contender in their division, a legitimate contender if they don't win the East to be one of the three wild card teams in what is perceived to be a weak NFC. They feel their four-game win streak in

November and very early December last season set them up for what was going to be a mid-to-late December and January run into the postseason, but was derailed by COVID. Injuries also. This is what Ron Rivera believes. We can agree or disagree all we want as to whether or not we think he's right, but that's what he thinks. That's what they think. And the offseason so far has reflected an approach that supports that notion.

He's told you that this upcoming season is important. The third year of a new regime, he thinks he can get this team to the postseason. As I've mentioned in the past, the business of this organization needs some legitimate momentum, not the faction of the fan base. They don't need the faction of the fan base that has always been there, you know, and lectures on social media how others should just forget the past and forget the old name and forget the idiocy of much of the last two decades and get on board or get out. You know, that group is loud in some social media service. but isn't very significant in terms of a needle mover for the business of the team.

The team needs a lot more than a few overly triggered, overly sensitive social media screamers to take the lead on this thing. The only way to get much bigger influencers to back the team again is to win. And even that might not do it anymore. But without a legitimately competitive team that is completely competitive team that is competitive sooner rather than later, they will once again be near the bottom of the league in attendance, bottom of the league in television ratings, and most of the other key measurables that indicate interest in that team. They need to get off to a good start. They need to have a good season in 2022. Make no mistake.

Some sort of long-term plan to win back those that have checked out, you know, some sort of long-term plan to win over those that are undecided isn't going to work. They know this. They need immediate success on the field, as in 2022 must be, you know, a season where they are in the mix for the playoffs. From start to finish, you know, one in four, one and five with a new name, new uniforms, new logo, new crest, new crest, even though the crests, was fixed, that will be hurtful to them. Jason Wright has been tasked, as I've mentioned before, with building a business that is,

quote, losing resilient, closed quote. Good luck with that approach in this market with this team, with this team in particular. He knows the challenge. He's reliant really on Ron Rivera to get it done on the field, even though he's been tasked with building a business that is losing resilient. Jason understands. Ron understands. The owner understands.

I think he understands. I don't know if he's focused on this anymore. But he certainly can read a year-to-year revenue analysis. And the decline over the last decade, really the last five years, is alarming to him and the league. So what you've been seeing and what you saw over this last week, was an emphasis on finding players that can help right away. Older players, seasoned players, players that have played a ton of college football, that

fill needs that they have a really good feeling on, can contribute right away. Maybe the boom potential of some of these players isn't as high as other players they could have taken in the same spots, but these players are plug-in-play ready to contribute. tribute in their opinion in a season 2022 where they've got to win, you know, minus maybe the selection of Sam Howe, which by the way, let me just digress for a moment, deviate for a moment, because I do want to go chronologically through the picks they made from Friday night through Saturday. But on Sam Howe, all right, this wasn't just a throwaway pick on a quarterback late in a draft. Sam Hal was at one point in 2020, the projected number one overall pick in the

2022 draft. Sam Hal is a recognized name because he's been talked about as a pro prospect for two years now. They might think it's easy to say, oh, well, we used a later round pick in this draft on a developmental quarterback. But this is a quarterback that many thought could have gone in the second round of this draft and was part of the conversation leading up to this draft in a group of, you know, it was this draft. We understand the quarterbacks were minimized, but he was part of the upper echelon discussion of this draft's quarterbacks. Ron played it kind of in two ways. He played it like, you know, he's a developmental guy, fifth rounder, but you could tell he was kind of giddy that Sam Howell was there because it's clear they think.

highly of him. I know for a fact there are people in the organization that liked Sam Howell a lot last year and liked him in this draft. He's a guy they saw a lot of a year ago when they became interested in Diami Brown. And while Ron didn't directly admit that this was the guy he was referring to earlier in the week when he said there was a guy that he liked and he would have considered early if they hadn't traded for Wentz, he didn't deny that San Diego. He didn't deny that San Sam Howell was that guy either. I'm not sure if it was or wasn't. Bottom line with Howe, he's a guy that teams did pass on for four straight rounds, but it's hard to sell Sam Hal as just a late round training camp guy that defaults to third string for a few years. I'm not buying that.

You know, Ron said he called Carson Wentz to let him know that they were going to take Hal. I know Wence is sensitive or was sensitive over the Jalen Hertz's second round selection, but I don't think the Colts had to tell him that they were taking Sam Ailinger last year in the sixth round. Maybe they did, but Ailinger wasn't the quarterback that was falling much further than expected. He wasn't the known name that Sam Howell was. No, Ron told Wence that he was going to draft Sam Howell before he did it because it, It was Sam Howell. And Hal was thought to be heading into this draft, a guy that should have gone much earlier.

I love that they took a guy that they really liked in this draft. It was the smart thing to do. I only hope that they didn't pass on a guy earlier that they liked even more. All right. The overarching theme to this weekend, players drafted especially in rounds one through four, are players they think and want to contribute. immediately. They'll be crushed, by the way, if these players aren't ready to contribute right away. That was the goal. They don't care that a ton of so-called draft experts believe that their first four

picks were drafted too early. For them, they believe that even if that's true, for their purposes, they passed maybe on bigger talent upsides, but they went with guys that can help right away. safer guys, maybe guys with bigger floors and maybe lower ceilings, if you want to describe it that way. Martin Mayhew defended the process and the criticism that he took by saying that people on the outside don't know what people on the inside know. I think that's probably more right than wrong. But anyway, all right, we went through Dotson on Friday repeating, I like Dotson a lot. four-year player super productive, ready to play, fills what they thought was an immediate need. Now let's get into more detail on rounds two through seven.

And again, the theme ready to contribute right away. Let's start with Phil Mathis. Perhaps not the most talented defensive tackle in that spot in the second round, but a 24-year-old player who is mature, tons of snaps at the highest levels of college football, and ready to be part of a rotation. You know, a rotation with two other Alabama guys, John Allen and Duran Payne, but replacing, you know, the rotational parts that are gone, Tim Settle and Matt Ionitis. So they believe that Phil Mathis, big, strong dude who can really push and push the pocket isn't explosive, but he can push the pocket. He can certainly be a rotational part on early downs against the run.

they think he's ready to play. Brian Anderson, Jr., third round running back from Alabama. I think they might have selected Davis Price from LSU if he had been there, but he was taking five spots ahead by the 49ers. I like two backs more than Anderson Jr. I liked Zemir White from Georgia, who went to the Raiders in the fourth round, and I loved Tyler Algier from BYU, who went in the fifth round of the the Falcons. But Anderson Jr. was another guy who had played with the best, competed against the

best, arrived at Bama back in 2017, 66 games in college, 545 carries, seasoned banger at 6162, 225. I think too early for him in the third round, but they seemed intent on a back that in some ways, right, could replace the guy they didn't want to lose last year, Peyton Barber. Some might say, and I don't think this is wrong, but if you're going to pick a running back in the first three rounds, you should be picking him with the idea that he might become, you know, a significant part of what you're doing, like a lead back. You know, a first and second down back would be the case for him, a short yardage back maybe on third and fourth and short also for him.

I like Antonio Gibson as a powerful downhill yards after contact back. I do. You know, I know he's got a fumbling problem. And Anderson, by the way, didn't fumble once. at Bama in five seasons. Not once. Those three picks, Dotson, Mathis, Anderson, Jr., season players, older players, ton of snaps against the best of the best in college football, all productive at the college level. None of them selected on talent alone.

And you could say the same thing about Percy Butler, their fourth round pick from Louisiana. A true free safety, maybe not the landing college. replacement. So perhaps the one need area, need area that would be in this draft that they didn't directly answer is that, you know, Buffalo Nickel. But Butler ran sub 4-4. He's a three-year starter, a special teams gunner day one. Butler had more than a thousand gradable special team snaps during his college career. A thousand. And he loves special teams. He talked about that before the draft saying, quote, I feel like nobody is going to show up on special teams like I am. That will put me ahead of a lot of guys in this year's draft, closed quote.

Chris Sims said on Twitter, the commander's got the best peer safety in the NFL draft in Percy Butler. Dude has tremendous range in center field. He is very good in all areas of coverage, let alone he has three rockets up his butt and can fly. Yeah, he ran a 4-3-6. I think that's what he ran. He is not all coverage. He is a very good tackler, too.

That was Chris Sims. Daniel Jeremiah from NFL Network. On special teams, he's going to be dominant right out of the gate. Kuiper, about Butler said, underrated prospect. So lots of snaps on defense and special teams over the last three years wants to do whatever it takes to get on the field. He's going to contribute immediately, even if it's primarily on special teams. Back to Sam Howe, first pick in the fifth round.

Again, I didn't love him as a pro prospect, but there were things I liked about him. He's tough. He's a very good runner. He's a playmaker in some ways like Taylor Heineke, big difference. He's got a big-time arm. He played in a very, very college-based system, tons of RPO zone read, not a system requiring him to go through, you know, pro-level progressions. But he can make the throws.

in 2020, great year, great talent around him. 2021, not as good of a year, but he was without Diami Brown. He was without Giovante Williams. He was without Michael Carter. He was without several offensive linemen. He had some rough games and big spots last year, including the opener against Virginia Tech and Blacksburg during Labor Day weekend. That was a primetime game on Friday night Labor Day weekend. I watched that game.

He was a disaster that night. But I also watched him against Notre Dame. in South Bend this year in late October, early November. They lost the game, but he was amazing in that game, willing that team to hang in there and have a chance. They got to within seven in the fourth quarter on a big touchdown run by him. He's on the shorter side, but he is a big-time runner. He's got some Matt Corral in him as a runner,

similar system to Corral System at Ole Miss as well. liked Willis from this draft. He's the only one that I considered to have huge boom potential for me. But I'm, you know, I'm not picking them. They are. And I do love, I do love that they didn't back off picking a quarterback in this draft that they liked a lot. And they liked them. They liked them a lot. I believe that. Certainly some people in the organization liked them a lot. You know, if they didn't, they would not have drafted him. You know, they had to like him to draft him there. You're not going to put pressure on Wentz and create, you know, the conversation that will,

of course, come with the drafting of Sam Hal unless you really did like him. You know, would taking him earlier have been sort of a bigger sign that he's much more than just a developmental, you know, project? Yes. But again, they weren't going to just take him if they didn't have a decent grade on him. They like him. You know, they can talk to. developmental all they want. If this guy comes in and impresses like some people in the organization

believe he can, and Wence isn't the guy, he's going to be in there sooner rather than later. I'm predicting today he plays this year, that he starts games this year. In some ways, it's because of Wence's injury history, but also I'm not a believer that this team's like a legit playoff contender. So end of year, you know, they might be out of it. Are we going to see Heineke or are we going to see Howl? I think in that scenario, we would see Hal. But there's a lot of time between now and then. That's for sure. I love the Cole Turner pick that came a few spots after the Howl pick. I watched a little bit of Turner before the draft when they had privately worked him out at Nevada with Carson Strong, but I watched a lot more after they selected him. He's

a receiving tight end. A hundred and eleven catches, 19 touchdown. the last two years at Nevada. Big catch radius. That's a theme this weekend. Dotson has one as well. They worked them out, as mentioned, privately with Carson Strong. I wonder actually if they had missed out on how if they would have drafted Strong. I'm not sure. But they really like Turner's ability to go up and get the ball. And with Logan Thomas coming off that injury that he suffered late in the season, and Bates being, you know, a blocking tight end more than anything. else, Turner could be a guy that contributes right away. You know, Logan Thomas is their guy, but they were limited without him last year,

and there's no guarantee he's going to be ready to start the year. Turner is insurance, yes, for Thomas, but I think Scott Turner likes him. I think you could see maybe something other than 11 personnel all the time, which they love, and perhaps especially on a condensed field, you'll see, you know, Logan Thomas and a Cole Turner out there. Two tight ends with size and big, you know, and huge catch radiuses or radii. Is that the plural of radius? I think it is. Chris Paul in the seventh round out of Tulsa means that two Tulsa offensive line starters got picked in this draft. Dallas used their first round pick on Tyler Smith. Paul's another player with a ton of experience. He played tackle

the last two years. Played guard as a redshirt freshman. So lots of experience. He's experience in position flexibility. We know that Ron Rivera loves that. He's got long arms. He's athletic. He's apparently a smart kid. Fills a need as depth at guard and flexibility to play either tackle spot, which he did at Tulsa in a pinch. But I think he's projected as a guard. He's a good project for John Matzko, for sure. There are other seventh-round pick Christian Holmes, a corner from Oklahoma State, one of the best two or three defensive teams. teams in America last year. God, I loved watching Oklahoma State defensively last year. Holmes, good instincts, very aggressive. He ran four or five something, which didn't make him

attractive as an earlier pick. But he's got athleticism. He's also got a 40-inch vertical. He's quick, maybe more than fast. He can play a little bit. Seventh round selection, of course, means probably not. But with this team, you know, they've had some success in the seventh round the last two years. All five of their seventh rounders are still on the team from the last two years. Cam Curl, James Smith Williams from the 2020 draft, Shaka Tony Dax-Miln and William Bradley King from last year's draft. All right, two more things before we get to Nick Ackridge from Pro Football Focus. First of all, I promised earlier in this segment the flow chart from the day one trade. So everybody knows they traded from 11 to 16 on night one of the draft with

New Orleans, and they picked up a third and fourth rounder to do it. The third rounder was the end of the third round, a compensatory pick that the Saints had, number 98 overall, and they got an earlier pick in the fourth round, 120 overall from the Saints to move back five spots. And then they took their fourth rounder that they got from the Saints, and they coupled it with a sixth rounder on day three of the draft, and they sent those two picks to Carolina for two fifth rounders. Those fifth rounders were at 144 and 149. So from 11 back to 16, they drafted Dotson, they got a third rounder, and they took Robinson Jr. And then the fourth rounder that they traded to Carolina turned into two fifth rounders, and they got Sam Howell and Cole Turner. So yes, like they did have a sixth rounder,

which would have been a player if they didn't deal it to Carolina. So you can't say that they actually, you know, yielded an additional player through the tradeback, because they ended up sending two picks for two picks. But the direct players picked from the trade in the first round were Dotson, Robinson Jr., Howell, and Cole Turner. I know many of you believe, look, they got four good players for just five spots back. You know, they made out much better than they would have if they had just stuck at 11 and taken a player. Well, you don't know that. You don't know that at all. If Kyle Hamilton becomes a Hall of Fame player in Baltimore and Washington's four players, three of them end up being non-contributors and one of them becomes a really good

player, well, that's not a win. You don't know. It takes time to evaluate these things, lots of time. If James and William turns into the best receiver in the NFL and Jahan Dotson is just a good receiver and Robinson Jr. and Hal and Turner don't turn out to be much. Well, you'd like to go back and draft James. You know, if a lavee becomes that. Look, I didn't mind the tradeback. I would have preferred Hamilton at 11, even knowing what they got, yes. But I like Dotson, the player. I like Turner, the player. And who knows on this stuff? Which leads me to this last thing before we get to Nick Ackridge. The NFL draft requires almost anybody that does what I do to provide a grade the day after.

I've done it in the past because that's what people want. And I, by the way, love reading how Washington's draft was graded by especially people that I respect. But you need three years before you actually know anything. If you think you need to be right about your grade for a draft, Like, it's important for you to be right. And by the way, you believe you can be right. You probably love to play the slots rather than craps in a casino. You know, nobody, fortunately, is holding anybody to accountability over grades for an NFL draft.

So I'll say this. You know, if passed as prologue, then most of these players won't be significant contributors three years from today. Two to three of them will be considered, you know, hit. I like Dotson a lot. I like Turner. Those are my predictions right now on legitimate hits from this draft. I think their obvious course of action, which was to draft players that can contribute right away because they think they're close and they can't wait on being competitive is a bit delusional. Not delusional in terms of understanding they need to win right away,

but delusional about them being super close to anything. but I do believe that the way they drafted will produce three to four immediate contributors. I just don't know if it produces any players that can help them compete for a Super Bowl down the road. I don't know for sure, nor do you, but I do like Dotson. I really like Dotson to be a player that could be a legit high-level receiver. Maybe not a superstar, but on a good team with another good receiver like Terry McLaren. guy who will put up really impressive numbers. And I do like Turner's chances to stick and contribute, especially with their current starting quarterback. And especially if Logan Thomas, and I'm hearing

some things about this, isn't, you know, ready when training camp begins. So with that said, I'll give them C plus B minus. Up next, Nick Ackridge from Pro Football Focus, he's a huge. huge Washington fan. Let's see what he thinks as a senior data analyst for PFF. We'll get to that right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Don't forget if you haven't done it already to rate us and review us, especially on Apple, a quick five-star rating and a one-to-two-sentence review really helps us out a lot. Let's welcome onto the podcast, Nick Ackridge. Nick is a senior data analyst for pro football focus. You can follow him on Twitter at PFF underscore Nick Ackridge. It's spelled AKR-I-D-G-E. Nick is a huge DC sports fan and I had a friend of mine reach out to me

on Friday and say you've had all these PFF guys on. Why haven't you had Nick on? He's following our team closer than anybody else at PFF. So Nick, it's great to have you on. I really appreciate the time. Yeah, I'm really happy to be here. Can't wait to dive into this and give all my takes away. Let's do it. Let's start with Sam Howell, because I think when all said and done, this pick at the top of the fifth round is going to generate as much conversation among this fan base as any other they made in this draft.

I know you're a big fan of Sam Howell. Tell everybody why. Yeah, I love the guy. I mean, relative to this class, I loved him. He was my second favorite quarterback behind Ritter. I think he has the tools. It was tough to sort of see what he was fully capable of last year. He played in a very college-y offense, so they run a lot of RPO's.

It was basically just RPO's and deep balls, but he has a cannon. It's very natural. He struggled a bit within the pocket. He likes to kind of, you know, one read and take off and run, and he's very, very good at that. But yeah, I think it's getting him in the fifth round and letting him develop and, you know, hopefully be a top-tier guy. I think he could eventually become that if you get very lucky. And, you know, when you take these quarterbacks in these late rounds, you are hoping for some luck to get a guy like, I know Washington fans want to hear it, but get a guy like Kirk Cousins, like a Dak Prescott, someone late in these rounds that you can kind of develop into being a successful quarterback. All right, let's talk about first of all where you had him as your number two overall quarterback behind Ritter, you said.

So what round do you think he should have gone in in this draft? I thought I had Ritter as one, and Ritter was kind of clear above everybody else for me. I just thought he was the safest prospect and the most pro-ready right now. I had Ritter, like, if it was me, I would take him second round. The rest of these guys, I would kind of take third, fourth, fifth round, because they, they, They are people that they're going to need a lot of work. And drafting quarterback this late usually doesn't turn out too well. So you want to kind of find a guy that you really like their tools,

and you feel like you can kind of work with that and develop him into the quarterback that you want. And I think Howell is the perfect guy to do that? I'm guessing that one of the reasons that it took so long for him to come off the board, and people were surprised. And we'll get to the rest of Washington's draft because there was a lot of discussion specifically about their first three picks, their first two in particular about players that may have gone a little bit too early. We'll circle back to that one in a moment. But Sam Howell had a phenomenal 2020 season when he had a lot of his weapons there, Diami Brown being one of them. He had the two big-time backs in Giovante Williams and Michael Carter.

This year, not as much. you mentioned it very, you know, heavy quarterback involved, dual threat RPO read option system with Mac Brown as the head coach at North Carolina here the last couple of years. The production fell off a little bit this year, although there were games this year where he single-handedly kept his team in the games without a lot around him. But let's break down Sam Howe every which way we can here. And then we'll get to the rest of Washington's draft, Nick. Let's start with his physical stature.

You know, I watched a lot of Carolina the last two years and watched a lot of Sam Howl. And, you know, he's not a tall quarterback. You know, I think he's listed at 6-1. I don't think he plays 6-1. He's a physical runner. There's no doubt about that. But what do you make of his size, his height in particular? I don't see his size as much of an issue.

If anything, he was on the huskier side, I'll say. But he used it to his advantage. He broke a lot of tackles. We have them with 65 broken tackles in 2022, which is just insane for a quarterback. You don't see that a lot with running backs. So I don't think his size is a problem. You've seen a lot of quarterbacks nowadays that are in that 6-1, 6-2 range that are

that are successful. I mean, we're not really looking for 6-foot-7, 6-5 quarterbacks that, you know, can thrive in the NFL. you see a lot of short-ish quarterbacks now that are working in the NFL. And I think his size won't be a problem. When it came to production, yeah, he lost a lot of talent, like you just mentioned. But his PFF grade only dropped by two points. In 2020, his grade was at a 92.3, and last year was at a 90.9.

You know, the yards dropped. The touchdowns dropped. But for us, he still graded out highly because of those big-time throws is what we call them, those high-level throws deep down the field. You know, a lot of times they were getting dropped by some of these lesser wide receivers. And he did feast on some lesser opponents. And, you know, on those bigger games that were broadcast on national television, he struggled a bit like Virginia Tech in the very first week of 2021 that a lot of people kind of remember.

He really, really struggled in that game. And I think a lot of people remember those games, which, I mean, that's no fault to them. because, again, you want to see how he performs against the best competition. But yeah, his production was obviously, it was just going to take a hit just because of the talent that they lost. Yeah, that Virginia Tech opener, which was a high profile, you know, Friday night game, national TV, Labor Day weekend was a dud for him. But, Nick, I thought the game at Notre Dame, you know, later in the season last year, They lost that game, but he single-handedly, you know, kept them in that game.

I thought that was one of the better games he had had all year. Talk about his arm strength because, you know, in watching Sam Howell, I think a lot of people as a runner and as a competitor are going to see actually some Taylor Heineke in him, although I think he's bigger and stronger. And as you mentioned, all of the broken tackles. And that was, you know, kind of a hallmark watching Carolina over the last couple of years as him as a runner. But what about the arm strength? Can he make every NFL throw? Yeah, he can. The problem with him was just kind of consistency within the pocket and bailing

a little too quickly. But he's got the arm talent. He can hit, he can hit the deep balls. He's got a moonshot ball like Russell Wilson. I've seen plenty of throws where he's hidden out routes from the far hash and in college that's a lot farther of a throw just because the hashes are wider. And you have to deliver that ball on a rope. So the armed talent is definitely there. The arm talent was never a problem. It's just the kind of the mental side of the game. We don't even know if he can do it fully yet just because of the offense that he played it.

Yeah, that's a really good point. And one of the things I was going to mention, as you said, sometimes he took off a little bit earlier. That's that really, like if you watched Carolina, which you did, a lot of times he would take off early. And I wonder how much of that was just him relying on his athleticism. and how much of that was, you know, kind of an ability to read defenses and be patient and hang in there as a pocket passer. What do you think? Right, yeah.

With these offenses, a lot of times you're only hitting half of the field to look at it. You're just reading half of the field. The other half is really not even in the play. So a lot of times he is just looking at that side, and if it's not there, he's taking off and running. And that is in the offense. So that's why I'm not as low on the mental side, just because I just don't think we know what he's capable of. And it's just because of the offense.

If you kind of let him sit and learn an NFL offense and, you know, kind of see these NFL defenses and work with NFL concepts, then you can really judge him. Nick Ackridge is joining us. Nick is a senior data analyst for pro football focus, and he's a big DC sports fan, huge Washington. football team fan. We'll get to the rest of the picks here in a moment, but we are focused in on Sam Howell right now. Give me, you know, give me a little bit on his accuracy and release. Accuracy was fine. I don't think there was any glaring issues there. It wasn't something like Malik Willis or even Desmond Ritter who struggled with accuracy at times. His release is very over the top. Some quarterback gurus probably won't like it as much, but for me, for me,

I'm just looking if he can deliver the ball on time accurately and down the field. I don't really care what it looks like. So, yeah, it's not the most natural-looking one, but he can absolutely swing it. Did you see some similarities with the way Hal played and with the way Matt Corral played? Similarities in the fact that the offenses are similar and the armed talent is similar. Yeah, I would agree with that. they're two different body types, obviously, but the way they kind of play is a little similar, yeah. Yeah, I thought the way they would physically take on tacklers, you know, at the college level was similar as well.

Who did you have if you did have a comp form? Who was your pro comp? I don't, I didn't really have a comp. I suck at comp. I don't know how people do it. I really don't. A lot of people said Baker Mayfield, which you can just kind of see it in the body type. We have in the PFF draft guide, we have shades of slower Russell Wilson. And you can kind of see that with just his deep ball. If you just look at his deep ball and the moon shots, like I said earlier, it is Russell Wilson as the way he kind of just dropped it in the bucket.

Do you think his extend the playability, his escapability talent is comparable with Russell Wilson's? maybe not as quick. Like it said, it was a slower Russell, but again, he's a bigger body type, and he was pretty elusive in the pocket when it kind of broke down, but my thing was he just left him a little bit too early for me. Carson Wentz is going to be the starting quarterback next year.

You can count on that, everybody. But let's ask Nick. Nick, do you think that Sam Howell has a chance to be the backup quarterback, when the season starts? I think that Ron is very happy with Wentz and Heineke. I think they're just basically going to register him this year. If it was up to me, I kind of want to see him play, obviously, as a fan. You want to see him thrown to the wolves and see if he can survive.

But I think Ron is very firm with, you know, Wents is one and Heineke is too. And I think you can be pretty happy with that. Heineke is not the greatest quarterback in the world, but we all see what he can do when he's kind of stepped into put in the fire. and, you know, kind of needs to perform. So, yeah, I think the one, too, will be Wenton-Hideke all year. And since you're a fan of the team, do you think having Howell on this roster

versus maybe a lesser-known fifth or sixth-th-round quarterback is going to put pressure on Wentz or not? I hope not. I mean, the way it seemed like he handled the whole Jalen Hurt situation, you just don't know. I don't think he should be too worried just right away. Now if he starts to play poorly, then yeah, you should definitely be worried about how, or Heinecke, if he's just not playing, great. But I think he'll be okay with, you know, a fifth round quarterback being drafted.

All right. Let's get to the other picks from Saturday. Let's start with their fourth rounder, Percy Butler, the safety from Louisiana. Tell us what you think about him. Yeah, he'll step in right away and place him. special teams. He'll be a gunner and he will succeed very quickly with being a gunner and being a special teams type of guy. I don't know how well he'll kind of step in and play a deep safety role. We wrote in our draft guy that, you know, he could maybe even move to corner just because

he's very slim. He's six foot, 194. He's just a slimmer guy, but he's very quick. He's a very athletic guy. he's just one of those guys and you kind of see it throughout the entire draft class there. Very high floor guys. It might be low ceiling, but they're very high floor and you know what you're going to get on special team and he can step in right away and

you know, contribute there. Well, before we get back to him and some of the other players, you just mentioned something and I I'm not sure if I described it the same way, but it was similar. I think this draft in many ways was a draft about the present as much

as it is about the future. You know, and I said this in the open of the podcast, as one of our favorite former team presidents said, we're close, and I think they believe they're close. You know, obviously... I agree. Yeah, go ahead.

I just, I mean, look at Mathis is 24 years old. Robinson Jr. is a four-year player. Butler is a four-year player and older. It's like they wanted, as you just described, they wanted high floor guys rather than high ceiling guys because they want immediate contribution. Yep, and they're going to get it. I really do think they'll get immediate contribution because these guys, they're pretty much ready to play.

I don't know how successful they're going to be, but they won't look out of place if that makes sense. But I agree. I think that they believe that they're close. I might not necessarily agree with that. A lot of fans might not necessarily agree with that, but they think that they're, close in a much, much weaker NFC conference now with, they went out and they got their

quarterback, and if you can get high in Carson Wentz, you might be able to compete. I'm a bit lower on Carson Wentz, but I think that they believe they are ready to compete in this draft. It just screams up. On Percy Butler, specific to what his strengths are,

he is a free safety, right? We're not going to see him in and around the line of scrimmage, like with landing Collins, or am I wrong? I don't know. I have to watch him closer, but everything that I've kind of read is safety. He's on the smaller side, so you don't really know. It's a strange selection. I think that, like I said, right away, you're going to get help on special teams. I just don't know how he'd be able to contribute on the defensive side.

What did he run? Didn't he run sub 4-4? Yep. It was 436, 40-yard dash, which was 97 percentile. So, it's a freak athlete, I mean, I don't know what you're going to get on the defensive side. All right. Tell everybody about Cole Turner. We know that they went out and worked out him and Carson Strong together at Nevada. What did they get in the tight end with their second fifth round pick? Yeah, when I was watching Carson Strong, Cole Turner just popped out just because he's an absolute massive human being. He's almost six, seven. He's just huge. I mean, the very worst case scenario, again, very worst case scenario, you're going to have a guy that's just going to win jump balls and is going to be good in contested catch situations. He's the exact opposite of John Bates, where he drafted John Bates last year kind of a run blocker.

He is a fantastic run blocker. As an inline tight end run blocking kind of guy to be that second tight end, and Turner's the exact opposite. You won't see him blocking much. Struggle going over the middle of the field, but he's a massive body and something you can kind of build off of. I think, I think you can kind of build him into being a decent past catching tight end on this league. All right. Let's go to the end of the draft for them. You guys did not have, you didn't have Christian Holmes actually as a draftable player, right?

their second seventh round pick? We didn't have him on our draft guide. I think we have about 250 to 300 players, I believe. But when you get down to the seventh round, it's all preference, basically. It's what you think you can fix. It's what tools you like.

Yeah. Tell us about their guard, not point guard, but their guard at a Tulsa, Chris Paul. Yeah. another passing human being he's

very very strong in his lower half he's going to he's just going to kind of bully people he's not as technically refined which is why he dropped so low

we had his round projection in the fifth six-ish range so you're getting decent value here it's a type of guy that you kind of want to find a seventh round a big athletic

offensive linemen that you can kind of work technique with and kind of hope that they can turn into a decent pro. All right. Nick's doing a great job with us here. Let's get today's one and two, the first three picks for the Washington commanders. The first three picks ever for the Washington commanders. And we'll do that with Nick Ackridge right after these words from a few of our sponsors. We are being joined by Nick Ackery.

at PFF underscore Nick Ackridge. Nick's a huge DC sports fan, and he is a senior data analyst for pro football focus. We covered rounds four through seven first, starting with the selection of Sam Howl, which is a selection that will get a lot of conversation, certainly in this off season. And God forbid the season not go well.

Many in the fan base will be screaming for Sam Howell pretty early if Carson Wentz doesn't get the job done. But let's get to Thursday night and Friday night. Let's start with what PFF, what you thought of the selection of John Dotson after trading back. Yeah, some guys at PSF aren't as high on him. I got to watching him after they picked him. I just watched the top four wide receivers thinking that's who they were going to get. A very shifty guy, again, he is the profile of this class is, like I said,

high floor, lowish ceiling. He will step in right away. He will be able to perform in the slot. You won't look out of place. He is a zone killer with a massive catch radius for someone who isn't even six foot. He's just going to succeed right away in the NFL. But I don't think he has the high ceiling like some of those other top four wide receivers had. But when you take into account the trade that you got and you can package

with a Sam Powell, a Percy Butler, all of these other picks, you can understand the value there. And I think it's great value for trading back. I think that Jahan Dobson and all these other picks that they got is more valuable than just Chris Oliva. What do you, so you think he is, I feel the same way. And I said this on Friday. And, you know, I heard Ron and Martin Mayhew saying that he can play everywhere. And Scott Turner does tend to to play. these guys almost everywhere looking for matchups.

But man, he excels. He looks like a guy that will just excel in the slot. But then, you know, Curtis Samuel is a guy that you think will excel in the slot if we ever see him on the field. I mean, they were able to get Terry McClorn into that situation. But to listen to Ron and Martin, you know, they think they can line them up at the X or the Z too. Do you agree with that or not? Yeah. I think you can.

He struggled to kind of get off of press man. situation against much more physical corners. But you can kind of hide that. You can, you know, have these bunch formations where you have all three to one side and you have him hiding behind someone like Terry in the slot. And I think it's, it's a good fit because like you said, with Samuel, with Terry and now with Jahan Dotson, all three of them can play in the slot and all three of them have previous experience playing out wide. I mean, Doughton almost primarily played out wide at Penn State. Like I said, he struggled with physical press man corners, and you're going to get that more in the NFL. But I think, like I said, you can hide that and you can,

you know, let him use his skills to his advantage. All right. Let's get to Friday night's selections, the selection of Mathis and the selection of Robinson Jr. Again, two players with a lot of college mileage on them. What did you make of those two selections, rounds two and three from Washington on Friday night? Yeah, I went to bed that night, not the happiest, just because Like I said earlier, I don't see them as ready to compete right now. And like they do see themselves as a team that can compete, and these picks make sense for that. Mathis is going to be a guy that you'll be able to plug in right away

into that rotational defensive tackle, and he will not look out of place whatsoever. He will be very good in the run game. He won't offer you much as a pass rusher, so whatever you get there is just kind of extra icing on the cake, or whatever you want to say. but he's just a solid player. There's not much upside there, but there's not a lot of downside at all.

I mean, he was playing on Alabama's line as a redshirt freshman, and that should kind of tell you everything. You need to know about how NFL ready he is. On Robinson Jr., do you think they believe that they selected a guy in the third round at that position that can be eventually their number one lead back? I don't know if he can be that full every downback, but he can be a decent rotational running back that is a good change of pace guy from someone like Anthonyo Gibson. And I think this pick just kind of is to light a fire under Gibson and see what you truly have there because Washington's offensive line was very good. And they've been very good for these past couple years, but Gibson was not taking full advantage of that.

We all know the fumble problems, but he had problems with vision and finding the right hole. you won't find that with Robinson. He might not be as shifty or as dynamic as Gibson, but he will find the hole and he will attack it and go straight downhill. And he had zero fumbles in college. He's just the exact opposite of Antonio Gibson. So I think he's a perfect compliment to him. But for me, in the third round, I just,

I don't understand why you're getting a running back. These type of guys can be found a lot later in the draft. It's almost as if they really, they really missed Peyton. Barber, which they talked about actually when they lost him, and that they've been looking to replace him. And actually, I'm almost forgetting what Gibson's short yardage numbers were. But Gibson's best strength for me, the greatest strength for me, is that he's very powerful at the point of contact.

But you don't draft Peyton Barber in the third round. No, and I agree with that. And that's kind of what left such a sour taste in my. in my mouth that going to bed that night. Look, again, he's going to step in and you'll see him be successful. He will not look out of place whatsoever. He will be able to be a successful running back. But again, these are the type of guys like Peyton Barber that you can find in free

agencies on cheap deals that you don't need to spend premium draft capital on. All right. Let's net it out here. Who was your favorite pick? I think I know the answer to that. who was the pick that you're most disappointed with? And then who do you think was the greatest value pick overall? Go ahead.

My favorite pick and the greatest value pick, I think, would be Sam Howell. To get a quarterback that a lot of people had in their top two, top three, that a lot of people saw going in the second and third. And some people even saw going in the first round to get him in the fifth round and just kind of pray that he is that diamond in the rough. I think that's incredible value. He's my favorite pick. and if you can fully unleash his tools,

I think you can be successful in the NFL. And I think my least favorite pick, it just goes back to the running back, Brian Robinson. And it's nothing against the player. And he is going to be a successful running back in the NFL. I just don't think that where you drafted him is the best option for where they are as a team. One more, Nick, on Sam Hal.

I want to go back to him for just a moment. Do you think that if he were to play this year? Let's just say the season got sideways and they wanted to see what Sam Howe could do at some point this year. Do you think that Scott Turner would have to tailor or craft his offensive approach to fit what Sam Howe did well at North Carolina in a more college-like system? Because I didn't feel he did that enough with Taylor Heineke. you're a fan of this team. Do you think he'd have to do it? Do you think he'd be willing to do it?

I think he would definitely have to tailor it to him just because I don't think he's going to be ready to read NFL defenses and work professional concepts right now. He just never really did at North Carolina, so maybe he can. But nothing on tape shows that he could do that right away. So you have to kind of work on a much simpler offense

RPO-heavy, play-action-heavy sort of offense that, again, uses his legs, uses his deep ball accuracy, and you're just going to kind of have to go with that. I think what you saw with Heineke last year is when he was able to kind of freelance and escape the pocket and work on the run, that's when you saw a lot of his biggest mistakes. A lot of hero balls, I like to call it, of him just kind of, you know, thinking he's back in college and kind of thinking he can fit a ball into a place he just can't.

I didn't see that as much from Sam Powell. He had to do it a lot more last year, just because of the talent around him. But in 2020, I saw a more calm quarterback. So, yeah, I just think that's what, if you're asking him to do that right away, it just won't be very successful. But he might need to step in.

Carson Wentz has not been the most, you know, consistent quarterback when it comes to injuries and whatnot. All right, let's finish up with a two-part question for Nick Ackridge. Nick's done a great job. Nick is a pro football focus senior data analyst. But beyond that, and this is why I'm going to finish up with this question, Nick is a fan of the team. So he follows this team super closely in addition to studying it.

So two-part question here. A, did they get better in this off-season, which is, for the most part, complete. there could be more to come here, but we're through the draft now. And B, what's your early gut on how many games they win next year? I think they have gotten better. You know, when you just kind of upgrade the quarterback position, which I'm not the biggest fan of Carson Wentz, but he is definitely an upgrade over Taylor Heineke.

I think they definitely got better in that case. I think that you're still going to see them hover around that same sort of win total, that seven to maybe nine or ten wins. I'd like to see how the schedule shakes out before I put like a firm number, but I think they're kind of in that seven to ten win range. And if you can get good Carson once and you can see him play all 17 games, then I think you can maybe get that into that 10 win range and maybe sneak into the playoff if you know you get the injury luck

and you get those sort of lucky bounces in these one score games that you need to have to be successful. So yeah, I think they're in that seven to ten win range. I think that's kind of where they were at the end of last year as well. So, yeah, I think it's a slight improvement. I would have liked to, you know, do a little bit more, but I think it's a small step in the right direction. Nick, thanks.

Really appreciate it. Great job. At PFF underscore Nick Ackridge. That's AKR-I-D-G-E. He's a D-C sports fan and he works for PFF. It's great to have you on the show for the first time. I really appreciate it. Yeah, I mean, it was awesome.

Anytime. I'll be around. I'll just be on Twitter, probably complaining a thing. Most do. All right, that's the show, wrapping up the Washington Commanders NFL draft. Tune in tomorrow morning, 6 to 9 a.m. on the team 980. To hear the radio show, we'll have Joe Thaisman on the show and perhaps another guest or two. And you can also listen to that radio show by downloading the Odyssey app and streaming it

or listening to the podcast of it as you do this one. All right, that's it. Enjoy the rest of your day.