The Landlord Lens - Recession in 2025? Here's What the Data Shows

Episode Date: April 14, 2025

Is the U.S. economy on the brink of a recession in 2025—or are fears overblown? In this video, we break down the latest economic indicators, job reports, interest rate trends, consumer spending habits, and what top economists are saying. Whether you're an investor, homeowner, or just trying to plan your year, this data-driven breakdown will help you understand where things might be headed.

Do you think one's coming? Do you think a recession's coming? Honestly, John, after doing a whole bunch of research and getting ready to talk to you, I think... Hey, John here with TurboTenant. I'm joined by Seamus, our CEO. Hey, Seamus. How are you? John, how we doing? Doing pretty swell. Brought you in to talk about the headlines that have been making the rounds the last, I don't know, week or so about the incoming recession. Consumer sentiments down. Defaults on car payments are way up. Yeah, it just seems really. really concerning. Are you concerned? Well, the sky is falling, right, John? I don't know. Maybe. I'm not concerned. I'll tell you why. One, you mentioned consumer sentiment down. Sure. That's what people say, what they feel. What are they actually doing? Consumer price index. The CPI shows that

consumers are still spending. And that matters? Because consumer spending makes about 70% of GDP. That's a good reason not to be worried. Okay. So let's think about it from the landlord perspective. If they're watching this, and partially persuaded by the headlines they're reading, what should they be thinking about? Yeah, so you should be looking at your portfolio in your situation and thinking, am I high risk? Your high risk if you're really sensitive to any drop

in the equity value of your portfolio. During a recession, housing prices, right, tend to drop. Therefore, your equity value gets squished. So if you have a lot of debt, especially debt that's adjustable, or you were thinking about refinancing or selling, you may go from an area where you, feel like you're comfortable to collar getting a little tight, feeling a little uncomfortable

with your portfolio. Gotcha. Okay. So those are the people that maybe need to worry. Are there anybody that actually will benefit from this? Oh, absolutely. So the Oracle of Omaha says, when others are scared, be greedy. When others are greedy, be scared, right?

Okay. And so if you're looking around and you believe a recession is coming, you should be collecting some of that dry powder, getting ready to buy. If you talk about individuals who started real estate. estate investing right after 08, the great financial crisis. They had the pick of the litter when it came to the real estate they purchased in the way in which they were able to grow their portfolio really quickly. Because multiple things happened during recession. One, we've got housing prices dropping. Two, we have interest rates dropping, which is a great cocktail of ingredients

for the real estate investor to get in and start buying. That's awesome. Okay. Sounds like you actually want a recession. Want one? I'm not sure. ready to take advantage of one, absolutely. Awesome. Well, now I'm curious, if you don't want one, do you think one's coming? Do you think a recession's coming? Honestly, John, after doing a whole bunch of research and getting ready to talk to you, I think we should flip a coin.

A lot of the signals are pointing both ways. My guess, though, is 12 months from now. We're sitting here and we've not seen two quarters of actual GDP decline, which is the official definition of a recession. and asset values have stayed high. The economy is really starting to prosper thanks to the cut in government spending. And we are in a lower interest rate environment anyways.

Okay. John, so 12 months from now, we're sitting down, we're talking economics. Do you think we've had a recession, two quarters of decline in GDP? Yes. I think we're overdue for one. and I think my positive take, though, is that there's enough pent-up demand specifically in the housing market by first-time buyers, especially, and also some of the folks watching who maybe haven't pulled the trigger since they got their first property around COVID.

I think there's enough pent-up demand that housing prices will probably stabilize, and it will probably be a, you know, two, three-quarter recession with steady housing prices. Well, I'll definitely take the under on that, but I do think your comment about demand is correct. We saw at the end of February, it was something like 20% growth in new applications for mortgages, meaning people are ready as soon as those interest rates drop to buy, buy, buy from a real estate standpoint. So you might not be wrong there. I'll take the under, though, on a two to three negative quarters of GDP growth. Awesome. Cool.

Looks like we're opposed. Absolutely. If you have your own opinion about the recession, think we're absolutely going to have it or think there's no way in hell that it's happening, please sound off in the comments. And as always, like and subscribe. We appreciate you. TurboTenant is the all-in-one platform for landlords to manage their rental properties. From vacancy to tenancy, we have you covered with industry-leading tools and expert advice.

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