The Landlord Lens - The Iran War Shocks the Housing Market

Episode Date: March 13, 2026

When global conflict escalates, it doesn’t just affect geopolitics, it can ripple through mortgage rates, inflation, and the U.S. housing market. In this video we break down how tensions involving Iran could impact interest rates, housing affordability, and what landlords and real estate investors should be watching.We’ll look at the economic chain reaction that often follows global instability and why housing is often one of the first places the effects show up.If you're a landlord or real estate investor, understanding these macro forces can help you stay ahead of the market.

This lasts for more than, you know, the handful of weeks that the administration has said it's going to last, then we could see a larger ripple, I think, at home and in our own economy. So it seems like this war might have an impact on Americans' ability to buy and sell homes. Hey, everybody. Welcome to an episode of Landlord Lens. Today we're going to talk about the new conflict or war in the Middle East with Iran and how it might be impacting the housing market here at home. Yes, this is an interesting. subject. We try not to usually weigh too much into geopolitics, but we're definitely seeing what I would categorize is kind of a slight impact. The main way that this is impacting right now,

the economy is the Strait of Hormuz, which has about 20% of shipping traffic through it for oil, is basically at a standstill. Oil's not coming in. There's inflation impacts. There's anticipated other types of impacts. And it had a slight impact on the mortgage rates. But not too much, right, Seamus? Yeah, the mortgage rates moved a little bit. So if we kind of walked to this timeline in February on the 26th, we saw the average 30 year hit a 5.98% print. And this was a big and exciting, honestly, rate to hit is one of the first times you've seen a sub six in quite some time. So seeing that five, I think had a lot of our hearts a flurry with optimism. And then obviously the conflict starts, right? And as that, started, we've seen this tick back up to, you know, where we're sitting today, we're about 6.2. I think for perspective, though, we actually average between like 6.15 and 6.2 in all of January. Oh. So, well, it has ticked up. It's not worse than what we've been experiencing recently, but I know for a lot of individuals seeing that leading five, right, was a sign that we might be

headed into the mid-fives and into an area that felt more attractive. Gotcha. Okay. So everyone got excited to seeing a five in the front. That's now back to a six, just like we were in January and before. And some people, it sounds like, are ascribing this to the conflict. But you actually have some competing opinions on what might have moved the number up. Well, the other thing that happened during the same time frame is just the Bureau of Labor Statistics came out. And I believe the number was negative 95,000 jobs. created in February. And so that, obviously we've seen that have a big impact previously on things like mortgage

rates as a concern of unemployment ticking up definitely hits hard here at home. What is interesting as unemployment ticks up, that's often a reason to actually drop interest rates and could potentially improve mortgage rates. Yeah. But the flip of this and what's making all of these things feel really strange is GDP and labor participation are not necessarily in lockstep like they normally are. Correct. And I think a lot of people, myself included, are very interested and curious as to see what Q1 of GDP is actually going to end up looking like when we get that number to understand how much our economy is grown. One of the

interesting things going back to the conflict is if we look historically, the majority of the time during wars, more that the United States have been involved in, mortgage rates have actually dropped. And the reason is is that mortgage rates are linked to the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds, right? And the United States is often in times of chaos thought to be the most stable place to park your money. And so even in times of war and uncertainty around the world, people have fled actually to the United States treasury bonds. How then has this conflict impacted treasury bonds in the short term? They're actually up 6% right now. And so that is an increase since the conflict started.

And while wars usually have a deflationary effect on our treasury, right, and you'd expect that to go down, because the price of oil has gone up so much, it also creates a situation where inflation on regular goods may also go up, which creates an extra layer of uncertainty that right now so early into the conflict is a counter force for the treasury. Gotcha. Okay, so you basically have these two forces. You have capital's natural flight towards the safest place when there might be losses in the market. And you also have the inflationary pressures of a restrained, the restrained flow of a really common commodity called oil related to this conflict. Both those things are pushing against each other. I think what's interesting, though, or what we should dig into now is what does that mean for the real estate investor out there and landlord? Yeah.

So let's talk about it. because in an environment where this kind of inflation is occurring, how should we expect? Because like those two forces are also acting in opposite directions on housing prices, right? That we just talked about. So right now, I would say if you were looking to add to your portfolio this year, this conflict itself at this moment, no real impact. We're seeing across the country housing prices are relatively flat. In some cases, they're going down.

In some cases, you see small rises of 2%, right? 2% is less than inflation, though. I would say if you were planning and buying before the conflict in Iran started, there's no reason to change your plans whatsoever from that standpoint. What is really important to know, though, is we're seeing rent drop, right? Yeah. And so just make sure, as you think about cash flowing this property, you are not assuming that rent is going to increase 3%, 5% year over year for the next five years because we're actually seeing the exact opposite happening across the United States. Now, if this lasts for more than, you know, the handful of weeks or month to months that the administration has said it's going to last, then we could, you know, see a larger ripple, I think, at home and in our own economy. The timing of this is especially unfortunate as the U.S. housing market really starts to ramp up usually as we go into the spring, right?

A lot of houses, a lot of inventory coming on the market. This is when a lot of, you know, sales showings start to happen. And so even just a little bit of a depression because of the uncertainty that the conflict brings could cause time to sell, right, or time to close to really get drawn out here. Where we're seeing properties really sitting on the market for a long period of time and missing what is in a lot of places of the country, kind of that sweet spot of second half of March, April, May, June of listing your house and getting it closed. Yeah.

So even if the market fundamentals are not materially impacted by this conflict, the fact that it's creating uncertainty might show up in a continued slide of housing prices. Absolutely. I mean, the psyche of the buyer and sell, it really matters. Yeah. And how people feel about this and how they feel about their own situation, especially as they see the prices of the pump tick up, definitely has the opportunity to kill some of the enthusiasm to go out, purchase new home for landlords, grow their portfolio. or even the confidence they might have in selling their own home. So we'll keep an eye on the conflict just like the rest of America. Its impact on the housing market, though, so far seems to be pretty minimal.

Does the conflict on Iran remind you of any of your past experience as a real estate investor? If so, please sound off in the comments as to what the situation was. Thanks so much. Like and subscribe. We'll see you guys next week for another episode of Landlord Lens. TurboTenant is the all-in-one platform for landlords to manage. their rental properties. From vacancy to tenancy, we have you covered with industry-leading tools and expert advice. Landlord better from anywhere for free at turbotenant.com.