The Last American Vagabond - Hidden Consequences: The Iran Regional War Is About More Than Just Oil

Episode Date: July 15, 2026

Welcome to Foreign Policy with Robert Inlakesh. In this addition Robert Inlakesh will look at the expansion of the US-Israeli war on Iran, its hidden blowback, and impending consequences. Trade routes blocked, another refugee crisis, expanding war fronts, and a global financial meltdown are just some of the symptoms of what could be the most dramatic war that appears to be opening across West Asia.Bitcoin Donations Are Appreciated:www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/bitcoin-donation(3FSozj9gQ1UniHvEiRmkPnXzHSVMc68U9f)The Last American Vagabond Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to The Last American Vagabond Substack at tlavagabond.substack.com/subscribe

To have dignity, to have respect, to have our human rights. The occupation is not just the soldiers, it's not just the settlements, it's everything. What will separate the condition of humanity from the barbarism of the past, which we like to think we have since changed and progressed from. That might have been the work of American imperialism and international Zionism. We've come here to investigate what this means for the people living here. It's a violation of international law. It's a war, right?

These are the real journalists, achieving liberation to unite the people in a way that we've never seen before. Welcome back to another edition of foreign policy with me, Robert Inlakeh, for the Last American Vagabond. Today's episode is being recorded as the United States once again escalates its war of aggression against Iran. and does so in order to serve Israeli interests. Now, many argued that perhaps the memorandum of understanding that was signed between the Iranians and the United States government was going to hold because the U.S., at the end of the day, had to stick to the interests of its own people and not forwarding an economic catastrophe that would have inevitably come out of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation

of regional tensions in West Asia. But of course, the United States government at this point would rather escalate tensions in the region than de-escalate and do the thing that everyone ultimately wants, even if they don't know it. So this episode is going to look into how this can spiral out of control, where the different fronts can explode and then some of the repercussions that we can expect from the expansion of this conflict. The first point here is the obvious one because it's been discussed. At nauseam in the mainstream corporate media were at least advocated for by many of the war hawks in Washington.

And that is a ground invasion of Iranian territory. Now we've heard a lot that has been said about the specific target island of Khark. And many have made arguments, at least these warhawks, have these neocons that taking Khark Island in the Persian Gulf would somehow stop Iran from being able to impose a blockade in the area. But if you simply look on a map of the Persian Gulf, you will see that it is in fact actually nowhere near or quite far. the very least from the Strait of Hormuz itself. It's closer up near the mainland of sovereign Iran, closer to the northern portion of the Persian Gulf. So if the United States was trying to seize an island in the region in order to try and secure the passage of ships

hypothetically here through the Strait of Hormuz, then it was. would likely want to go after a series of islands that are closer to the United Arab Emirates and also closer to the Strait of Hormuz itself. They are the Abu Musa Island and then two smaller islands called the Greater and Lesser Tumb. These islands in specific are actually claimed by the UAE, which is, of course, an ally of the United States, but they are Iranian. territory. There is also an island which is a bit bigger. It is called Khashim Island, and this is much closer to the Iranian mainland. Now, if the United States does this, the obvious consequence is that they will lose a lot of service members. It is going to be a very costly ground invasion. Iran is

not going to roll over, and they are also very likely going to lose a lot of soldiers that will be taken into captivity by the Iranian side. This is a disaster for obvious reasons, because this will be another Iran hostage crisis. So these are some of the more evident consequences that will come to bear if the Trump administration wants to carry out an action like this. But then let's say for the sake of argument that they actually go after these islands. Let's say they take Harg Island. The real purpose of taking Harg Island would be that it is an oil export hub for Iran.

This would economically damage the Iranians. So at some level, I suppose you can make an argument for it if you wanted to harm Iran. Staying there after capturing it is a whole other question. Of course, we'll come with lots of casualties. But capturing that island, ultimately you could do the damage. by just simply blowing up all the facilities there. But if you are like the Trump administration, and you deal in theatrics,

and you like to put on a media show them, maybe that is a target you want to go after. But it has nothing to do, ultimately, with opening up the Strait of Hormuz. Now, for the other islands, perhaps you want the aid of the United Arab Emirates to capture the free islands that are off of its coast. And perhaps you do want that support

you do want that support there and you're wanting to use your Persian Gulf allies as a launching pad for such an operation. Well, even again, if the United States was able to capture these islands, I'll make an active claim. I'll go further. Even if the United States was to capture all the islands that we're discussing plus other smaller islands and was to make incursions into mainland Iran in the south of the country, which is Iran is a rather large country, it would not make a difference. Now, it might be more difficult for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, but it will still nevertheless be able to maintain its blockade, because all it needs to do simply is locate ships that are in the Persian Gulf, locate those ships as they are trying to

transit the Strait of Hormuz, and then they simply target them with drones and missiles, and they can do that from a very long distance away if they choose to do so. Also, Iran has planted mines, and of course it can increase the number of mines that it plants in the region. So the idea that taking islands or even going into mainland Iran is going to be this magical solution to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is nonsense. And also, why I say this so incredibly confidently, is because we've seen the United States attempt through a large-scale, bombing campaign against Yemen, which is militarily nowhere near as powerful as Iran, nowhere near as sophisticated and well-prepared. Yemen's Ansar al-La government was able, its armed forces, were able to maintain the blockade in the Red Sea and

closure of Babu Mendeb, not just through a US-Trump administration, bombardment campaign, which lasted for about a month and a half, which wasted U.S. taxpayer dollars to the tune of billions that we know about, that is. All for Israel, by the way, because it was Israel that was suffering as a result of the Yemeni blockade of the Red Sea area, which choked off the port of Elat and led it to bankruptcy. United States attempted to intervene with a massive bombing campaign under the Trump administration, which was dubbed Operation Rough Riders, rather ridiculous name. But there were two operations that the Biden administration had committed on Israel's behalf, not as intense as the Trump administration's campaign. But nonetheless, they used a coalition of different allied countries in order to try and

pressure and defeat the blockade and to get ships through. In fact, the Red Sea, we're talking about a larger territory here and a weaker foe. But they failed ultimately. They tried for years. They tried all kinds of pressure campaigns, and it resulted in failure, which leads us to now, Yemen itself. in the situation that is currently ongoing. So we've already covered the fact that even these ground invasions, if the United States commits itself to them,

they're not going to work to open up the Strait of Hormuz. So forget Strait of Hormuz. It's going to be closed. Now we have a situation where Saudi Arabia bombed Senat International Airport, and the conflict which was frozen, the Yemen-Saudi War, which was frozen since, early 2022, because of a UN-brokered ceasefire, has now opened back up. And so Ansar Allah simply has to

play the card of the complete closure of Beban Mendeb, and also restricting Saudis access to the Red Sea, and suddenly this economic catastrophe that is pending is going to get a hell of a lot worse. That is another front. Also, Yemen's Ansar Allah could end up committing to an offensive because it has indeed been mobilizing its troops recently, where it would attempt to retake the key port city of Aden, which would essentially end up uniting Yemen once again and liberating their country. The whole purpose of this, of course, is so that they can end the Saudi blockade, end the war, it is currently ongoing where they're fighting Saudi-backed proxies. And as a result of that, if the Saudis resist with the backing of the United States,

and especially if the United States decides to get involved, as well as the Israelis, it is going to add another pressure point. All of the cargo that used to pass through Bevanamendeb, up through the Suez Canal, and reach the Mediterranean that way and reach Europe, is now going to have to go all the way around Africa. And that is at a time when possibly Yemen could stop Saudi from exporting anything through the Red Sea at all. And the Strait of Hormuz is also closed. Now, after this, we have to look up to Lebanon,

because what is currently ongoing in Lebanon is that there has been a conspiracy that has been hatched by the Trump administration. Now, Donald Trump signed his Memorandum of Understanding with the Iranians. Clause 1 in that Memorandum of Understanding was that all of the fronts in the regional war were to close. Specifically, they named in this clause the Lebanon Front. And Iran was very clear. This to them meant that Israel had to withdraw from the territory it had occupied in southern Lebanon. But the Trump administration didn't just refuse to force the Israelis to withdraw from South Lebanon. Instead, it went a step further.

It told them not to bomb Beirut. It told them not to do things so provocative that it would draw a direct Iranian retaliatory missile strike or something of that nature. They didn't want it to escalate at that point. But instead, what they did is they got their proxy government that is in Beirut, their puppets, the President Joseph Aoun, and the Prime Minister Noir Salam, who by the way, were not democratically elected by the Lebanese people, but perhaps that is for another episode. So these US proxies, this proxy government, which didn't get permission from the Lebanese parliament and didn't get permission from the cabinet even, went ahead and signed an agreement,

recognizing Israel and de facto recognizing the illegal belligerent occupation of the south of Lebanon. And they put that on paper. And in fact, they went a step further than that. They signed a document in which they granted the Israelis the right to commit any crimes against them, and they would still not be able to appeal in the international courts, even. let alone using armed force, and that Lebanese army that is supposed to be there, because it is an army, at least that's the name that it's used to refer to it, the Lebanese army is now going to be used under this agreement to disarm Hezbollah in the country.

So the one group, the one organization, which is more powerful than the Lebanese army, which has more fighters than the Lebanese army, is now going to be combated by the Lebanese army for the crime of defending the south of Lebanon and fighting back against the Israelis. After a ceasefire agreement was violated 15,400 times by Israel and Hezbollah did not fire a single bullet back until earlier this year on March 2nd. But of course, the United States has been pushing for the Lebanese army to fight Hezbollah, which would mean a civil war, but it goes even further than that and even deeper. So the United States, already we have confirmation that they are sending a military advisory

team to Beirut to help guide the Lebanese army in their fight against Hezbollah to allegedly try and disarm them. But of course, as I just mentioned, the Lebanese army are weaker than Hezbollah, significantly so, and they won't win in a fight against Hezbollah. So why are those U.S. forces there? Well, they're there to push them into a fight. They want them to fight. And they know that the Lebanese army won't win.

They also know another key detail. And that's that by conservative estimates, 40% of the Lebanese armed forces are Shia Muslims. Now, Hezbollah happens to be a Shia Muslim resistance organization, party within the country, with an enormous following. which will mean that the Lebanese army is going to split into factions if a war does happen. Now the United States wants troops there in Beirut, and there has been speculation that thousands of U.S. combat soldiers will be sent to Beirut. At this point, it's only speculation, but we do know that this advisory team is being sent there. So if they send those troops into Beirut, that would be in order to try and hold a portion of Lebanese territory to keep its proxy regime in power. While the Lebanese army obviously splits up into factions and there are proxy organizations that are funded by Saudi Arabia, backed by the Israelis, and of course backed by the United States inside of Lebanon militia groups,

that would also perhaps perform a role in fighting Hezbollah. Now, the other element to this, which makes it even more crazy and brings in even more repercussions, is the fact that you may have noticed that Donald Trump has publicly stated a number of times that he wants the president now of Syria, which he brags about putting there, even recognizing his background. So his name is Ahmed the Shara, or Abu Moum, Muhammad al-Jolani, as he was previously known, and he was the guy that headed up the Syrian branch

of Al-Qaeda, or for that he was a commander in ISIS. Now, Trump brags about putting him in control of Syria and even recognize the fact that he is a former Al-Qaeda leader publicly. But he now wants Abu Muhammad al-Julani to invade Lebanese-Telani. territory, specifically an area called the Beqa, and the Beqa Valley is the area inside of Lebanon, which is known as the strategic depth of Hezbollah. It's where a lot of military assets are positioned for it. So Trump not only wants to try and create a civil war, again, the behest of Israel, while Israel occupies the south of Lebanon, and again will likely commit to further, their offensive actions while all of this is going on.

But they want to create a civil war inside of Lebanon, and then they want the former head of al-Qaeda and former ISIS commander to head a bunch of sectarian forces from Syria to invade the Lebanese border and go into areas where they will come into contact with a lot of civilians from different sects. So Christians, perhaps. perhaps the alibi in some cases, and also the Shia. And so these are different, and these sectarian fighters who have a mentality of killing people that are different to them will most likely inflict all kinds of horrors on them. And the local tribes are likely to participate in resisting this Syrian invasion.

And so that means that their people will suffer as well if such an event happens. If that is to occur, and the Syrians are, as we hear, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has been reported that the Syrians have been mobilizing their forces along the Lebanese border. Of course, Trump has been repeatedly calling publicly for Syria to invade Lebanon. If all of this happens, then there's another element that will come into this. Because Iran is not going to allow this to happen, and the Iraqi militias, what's known as the Peasians, what's known as the Peabees, PMU, the Popular Mobilization units, they themselves have threatened to get involved in Syria, so they will most likely cross the border into Syria and fight against the Syrian forces. So now we have a situation where the Trump administration, simply for Israel, only for Israel's interests,

will be placing its own men on the ground in Beirut, whether that's thousands or it's the current amount that they are deployed. They want a civil war, which will break apart the Lebanese armed forces, will likely lead to the disintegration of the state, will create sectarian battles within the country. And then he wants the former al-Qaeda leader in Syria to bring a bunch of sectarian fighters, thousands of them, tens of thousands of them, to invade Lebanese territory, sparking, sectarian violence, which will then trigger Iraqi forces to invade Syrian territory. Do you see how messy this all gets? And this can all happen simply as a result of what the Trump administration and Israelis are plotting. And so this time, if this series of events starts unfolding in all these regions that we've covered, and there's more than what we've just looked at here. We're looking at a much broader war than happened earlier this year,

one with worse economic consequences, one that will also create a massive refugee crisis. Because people will be fleeing Syria. The situation in Syria is already terrible, by the way, though the sanctions were removed and Syria got access to its resources again, the mismanagement and corruption is awful, and the situation has continued to deteriorate. It will get even worse if Syrian forces invade Lebanon. That is a guarantee. So you'll have more Syrians fleeing. You will have more Lebanese fleeing.

You have a Lebanon refugee crisis. And it's very likely that the Christian population. and other minorities like the Adui inside of the Middle East are going to again be forced out of the region in larger and larger numbers. Their numbers will reduce. And it's going to be overall a catastrophe, the amount of civilian life that is going to be lost. But if you're somebody that just cares about the West, then we're talking about a massive refugee crisis. We're talking about U.S. troops being stuck in the middle of this mess. and possibly getting blown up in the process.

We're talking about a situation where US troops could be used to invade Iranian islands. And if that happens, then many of them are going to die, die for nothing. They're not going to gain anything from launching Israel's invasion that it would never do with its own soldiers. So we have to look at this critically. We have to think to ourselves, where is this all going?

How bad can this get if the Strait of Hormuz and Babad and Mendeb are also or both closed at the same time. What are the economic repercussions? What's going to happen in terms of another refugee crisis? How many civilians are going to end up dead as a result of this? How much money is the United States spending on this out of their taxpayers' pockets? All for Israel. Nothing else.

There's nothing to gain for the United States. States in this war. Opening the Strait of Hormuz, well, the MOU would have done that, if they would have followed the deal. And the Strait of Hormuz was open before Trump, along with the Israelis, bombed Iran directly. And see, there's a reason why, no other administration for about 30 years of pressure to do this very war, Republican and Democrat, it doesn't matter if you still are caught up in this two-party delusion and you believe in one side or the other, it doesn't matter here, there's a reason why none of them did it, despite the fact that they were all pro-Israel. And Israel in the lobby had serious influence, but now we're talking about it's on another level entirely.

So the repercussions, the chaos that I have just covered, which could come as a result, and I'm just scratching the surface here. We're not talking about all the other fronts that could open. We're not talking about all of the knock-on effects, everything in detail. just an overview. But just what you've heard, based upon what you've heard, doesn't it really cause concern? And we should be concerned. Not just because it's going to hit the West as well,

but because innocent people are going to die, and that should not be something on anyone's conscience. It shouldn't be on our conscience, and it should be something that we take very safe. seriously, the deaths of millions of people, genocide, mass ethnic cleansings. And perhaps at the worst stage of this conflict, if it gets to that point, the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Israel wants the United States. It wants to use the United States. And it wants to ensure that this war inflicts a massive blow on Iran. They know.

regime change is not coming instantly. They're not stupid. They understand that it's not about to come overnight. They're playing a long game here. But as a result of this war, they want Iran significantly weakened. That's their goal. And they will sacrifice as many Americans, Gulf Arabs, anyone else in the region that it takes to achieve that objective. So now we're seeing a war fought for Israel where it It has real life consequences, both in the long term and the short term. No benefits for the United States. In fact, those Gulf states, if the United States starts going after Iran's infrastructure, those Gulf states will be blown to pieces.

And if the United States wants to bomb Iranian nuclear power facilities, well, there could be intrusion of this nuclear material into the waters of the Persian Gulf. If that happens, all those Persian Gulf countries become uninhabited. It's going to have a serious impact. And just so everyone knows the Trump administration, Trump himself, even if somehow at the stage you're still supporting Donald Trump, he himself bragged about trillions of investment coming from these Gulf countries. Well, forget that. In fact, we have to ask ourselves the question.

Donald Trump himself has personal investments in the Gulf. So why then would he go and enter a conflict which would kill the Gulf? the Gulf because he has investments there in those Gulf Arab countries. Does he want that to be destroyed? Does he want to lose his own money? Or does Israel have something on him that is holding him hostage? Is there something deeper here? Because there's no way of making sense of this unless something else is going on behind the scenes. And that's a question perhaps that we're going to explore in another edition of this show.

So do stay tuned. Until next time, I'm Robert in Likesh, and you've been watching the foreign policy show for the last American vagabond.