The Last American Vagabond - How The US/Israel Lost The Iran War & The Lebanon Trap

Episode Date: May 25, 2026

Welcome to Foreign Policy with Robert Inlakesh. In today’s show Robert dives into the current reality of the US/Israeli war on Iran and the many ways this conflict is changing global dynamics.Bitcoin Donations Are Appreciated:www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/bitcoin-donation(3FSozj9gQ1UniHvEiRmkPnXzHSVMc68U9f)The Last American Vagabond Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to The Last American Vagabond Substack at tlavagabond.substack.com/subscribe

Robert and Likesh here reporting for the last American vagabond. And today we're going to be looking at the Iran war, specifically the Lebanon front of the regional conflict which erupted when the United States and Israel attacked Iran earlier this year on February 28. And why this is so consequential to the ultimate outcome of the war and closing the war. in specific, reaching an agreement which could bring about a permanent cessation of hostilities. Now, the first thing that we have to note is that the United States has indeed been drained in this war with Iran. We know this because the most recent reports that have come out, for instance in Bloomberg, not too long ago, that 30 US MQ9 drones were shot down of just that drone variation alone,

amounting to around a billion dollars in costs for the U.S. military by the Iranian air defenses. These sorts of stories that are now emerging of the damage that was done and inflicted on the U.S. arsenal, on U.S. aircraft, both manned and unmanned, and also those 16 bases that had been badly damaged. All of this adds up to a really difficult predicament for the United States. States and the U.S. military, because in order to go further, which the U.S. military most certainly can do, they can go further with Iran, they can launch a ground invasion, they can strike more infrastructure, but at a great cost. And the real question is, do they want to pay the price that it will take to inflict blows on Iran without any clear route to achieving regime change

or anything meaningful, really, other than inflicting damage and suffering, which will primarily hit the civilian population of Iran in the long run. Now, the Israelis are seeking this for Iran. They want the United States to badly impact the Iranian economy, to hit Iranian industry, to devastate Iranian infrastructure, and Israel is the driving force, as we all know, behind this war. on Iran. And we know this because there's many figures within what we could call the US deep state and the foreign policy establishment that have been against this war in an unusual way.

For example, Hillary Clinton came forth and said she opposed Trump's war with Iran, but she said she endorsed the strikes on Iran's nuclear program last year during the Israeli attack on Iran, the 12-day war. war. So why would someone like Hillary Clinton be against this, for example? Well, because then if you look at the amount of weapons that you have to use the stockpiles and how low they get of precision weapons, cruise missiles, these MQ9 drones, a fifth of them taken out by Iranian air defenses, then for other bigger, more significant enemies, such as China, for instance, the U.S. is then at a disadvantage and it could take as long as a decade to restock its, uh, its munitions that it has lost.

And this is not even talking about air defense munitions, the THAAD and Patriot systems, which were deployed. And also there's another element and that's the pressure that comes from the Arab Gulf monarchies, which are allied with the United States. And so the Israelis don't care so much if these states like Qatar or the UAE even, which it's very close with in the Persian Gulf or Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, if they suffer economically, that's not a problem for the Israelis. In fact, that's probably to their benefit. And again, this really comes down to the Trump administration being able to effectively push back because they have lost a lot. Now they can recover, but they are suffering with every passing day that the Strait of Hormuz is not opened.

All of this being said, the Lebanon front is a sticking point here. Because even if the United States, hypothetically, was to reach a deal with the Iranians, which is going to be a permanent cessation of hostilities, not just these temporary agreements and memorandums of understanding and all of this, but a proper long-term agreement, one of the conditions that was set by the Iranians was closing the Lebanon Front. And for Israel, closing the Lebanon Front is strategic defeat. They told their own people in November of 2024 that they had defeated Hezbollah in Lebanon. Suddenly, Hezbollah earlier this year, coming to the aid of Iran and taking the opportunity to retaliate against 15,

400 Israeli ceasefire violations within the span of 15 months, Hezbollah came back and began hitting Israel very hard in more significant ways than they had before in the past. So it was very clear that Israel and the U.S. government had lied about what was done to Hezbollah in Lebanon by Israel's assassination campaigns and its terrorist pager attack, which wounded thousands of people, many of them civilians throughout Lebanon. So the Israelis were stuck in a very difficult predicament. They had attacked Iran. They attempted to trigger a color revolution prior to that.

And everything failed. The assassination of Iran's supreme leader failed to affect regime change. The riots failed. The militant groups failed. And so the Israelis now are facing off in a. temporary ceasefire with the Iranians, they're facing off against Hezbollah. Now, they wanted to go back to the scenario with Lebanon, where they could strike the country at will without any return fire coming. And that is not something that Hezbollah is accepting. Instead, what they've done is they've

used this FPV drone strategy, the first person view drones on mass, to attack Israeli military positions, on top of, of course, doing other things and waging guerrilla war against the Israelis, planting IEDs in the roads where the Israeli soldiers who are occupying South Lebanon now are operating and travel through. They're using guided anti-tank missiles to attack Israeli convoys, and they are using rocket and artillery fire on Israeli positions, but the most effective weapon so far, especially during. what has become a temporary ceasefire, which continues to be extended in Lebanon. During that period, Hezbollah has excelled with its use of these FPV drones. And Israel is in a very, very difficult predicament because Israel likes to hide its casualties. And it can't do that when every single one of those drone hits are filming what they are hitting. They're filming as they ram into Israeli soldiers, Israeli tanks.

and vehicles of various kinds and equipment and even Iron Dome Air Defense batteries as well, taking them out too. And they're able to go across the border into the Israeli settlements and strike military positions there. Why I'm explaining this all is because the Israelis are now stuck. They've been dragged into South Lebanon, really tricked by Hezbollah. They have proven incapable of defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon. To the contrary, they're just destroying more homes like they did in Gaza, and they are killing civilians, targeting paramedics, targeting journalists, targeting emergency workers, and the likes. This is what they did in Gaza, but in Lebanon they are facing a force, which is much more formidable. And so, ending the war with Iran, having said all this, means that Israel has to withdraw completely from Lebanese territory. This is a massive victory for Hezbollah.

One that the Israelis really can't come back from. And the reason why I'm saying that is not that they can't recover physically. Psychologically they can't. Because right now the Israelis since October 7 have been pursuing and are pursuing a policy of expansionism. They want to achieve what is called the Greater Israel Project. Now, that means taking portions of neighboring countries, including South Lebanon. If they cannot defeat Hezbollah and they are forced back across the border, and it is the second liberation of South Lebanon by Hezbollah, then that dream is dead. And the alternative that they have here is to do one other thing.

And that is to make a deal with the Palestinians. And instead of having greater Israel, they will have lesser Israel. They will be forced to accept a Palestinian state. in some way in the future if they are going to survive. And they don't want this. Even if this is a series of Bantu stands and it's not a real state that is formed, this is the worst case scenario for the Israelis. And right now, the outcome of the Iran war, the outcome of the war with Hezbollah is going to mean the difference between greater Israel and lesser Israel or no Israel in the future. And they see this war as existential.

So when it comes to Trump trying to reach a deal with all these external pressures, and of course Israel having led his administration, which appears incompetent, into the war with Iran, trying to get out of it now is proving much more difficult because Israel has to concede defeat. Now, Trump can walk away from the region and pretend like he won, and he blew up the Iranian missile program and their nuclear weapons and all of the rest of it. He can walk away, but ultimately, if the Lebanon front doesn't close, there can be no deal. And Israel, if it walks away from Lebanon and it evacuates South Lebanon, then this is a defeat.

And they cannot present it in any other way. So right now, as it stands, that is the predicament that the world is now facing, because the Strait of Hormuz impacts the global economy. And without Israel being put in its place and being forced to leave illegally occupied territory in South Lebanon, to evacuate Lebanon, to stop attacking Lebanon, which is all that Hezbollah is fighting for and asking for right now. Hezbollah is asking for a very, very simple demand. And that demand is simply the retreat of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory.

And Israel does not attack Lebanon anymore. That is total victory for them. But the Israelis, again, if they accept this, then that means that they have failed to defeat Hezbollah. they have failed in their mission over the past two and a bit going on three years now, fighting on all these fronts. Netanyahu promised a total victory across his seven front war, or perhaps eight fronts, he says, when it comes to the media war.

And on every single front, they've lost if Trump was to somehow sign a deal. That is the position the Israelis are in. So understanding this and when we see this going forward, if the Israelis are forced to withdraw from South Lebanon, Israel has been strategically defeated by the Iranian-led axis of resistance, and this means Israel might get cut back to size. However, the one major problem, of course, is even if it withdraws from South Lebanon, it still is attacking the Palestinians and the West Bank. the Gaza Strip, the 48 territories, East Jerusalem. And so there must be a struggle that will

continue in order to liberate Palestinian territory and to solve the issue there. But that being said, Israel has been defeated by Iran at that point. And that is why reaching a deal has been, has been and will be, even if they sign the deal, will be so incredibly difficult.