The Late Braking F1 Podcast - 2023 Japanese GP Qualifying Review

Episode Date: September 23, 2023

It appears as if Max Verstappen is quite good at the F1. Ben's here in the early hours of the morning to review everything that happened during Japanese Grand Prix qualifying. A dominant pole position for Max Verstappen, an early Q1 exit for Logan Sargeant and a front row start for Piastri on his first trip to Suzuka! FOLLOW us on socials! You can find us on YouTube, Instagram, X (Twitter) and TikTok SUPPORT our Patreon for bonus episodes JOIN our Discord community JOIN our F1 Fantasy League BUY our Merch EMAIL us at [e-mail]   & SUBSCRIBE to our podcast! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This podcast is part of the Sports Social Podcast Network. Thank you for listening to the Late Breaking F1 podcast. Make sure to check out new episodes every Wednesday and every Sunday. And a very warm welcome to the late breaking F1 podcast presented by just me today, Ben Hocking. I've been left to my own devices, which is an utterly terrifying prospect, as it always is. I might seem like I know what I'm doing with the other two of us. round, but I sometimes become surprisingly lost, but I'll give it my best shot over the next 30 minutes or so, as I do have some thoughts on the qualifying session. We just saw the Japanese Grand Prix

qualifying. Yeah, Vestappen's all right, ain't he? Yeah, we'll be talking about that, obviously. Quite a few things I want to get to. Not such a good Saturday for Logan Sargent, a bit on Alpha Tauri. Of course, won't necessarily get into the Sonoda Ricardo news today. day while I'm on my own, but we'll be discussing that one, probably midweek, assessing whether we think they made the right decision in retaining Sonoda and Ricardo, but plenty to get into, into the qualifying session, of course, McLaren, second and third, Ferrari's, both making Q3, but no third poll in a row for Carlos Sines, Mercedes struggling again, Astor Martin potentially even more, so plenty more to get into today. I'm not even going to complain about the time

It is early European time, fully aware. This is one of only about three times that I have to do this per year. And there are plenty of dedicated fans all around the world that do this many more times than three times. So I'm not going to complain once. But if you think I am in any way tired or sounding wrong or just getting things incorrect more than usual, let's blame it on that rather than anything else. Let's start out front. And when I say out front, that is Max Verstappen and pretty much no one else, because that was one of the most dominant pole positions we've seen in a very long time,

which is saying something, given we've had quite a few dominant polls from Max Verstappen this year. This might take it to another extreme. I think Q2 rather than Q3 might have been the giveaway as to how dominant Vostappan was. So free practice one, free practice two, free practice three, clean sweep of Max Vastappen first place, which actually hasn't happened as often as you think it has this year, as dominant as Vestappen has been. There have been occasions where his teammate or one of the Ferraris or Merck or Alonzo has taken free practice sessions away from him here, not even close. Vestappen's fastest all the way throughout Friday in the beginning of Saturday.

And that carried through. And Q2, again, is the key one here. Because whenever you see in a qualifying session, old tires versus new tires, as I'm sure long-term fans of the sport will know, such an advantage to be on those new tires. Normally to the point where occasionally, if you are very quick, you might risk trying to get through a Q2 session or a Q1 session on these old tires. it wasn't a risk in any respect for Max Verstappen.

He was still fastest. It was ridiculous to see the advantage that he had on old tires versus his teammate Sergio Perez had on brand new tires. Another thing that generally people want to go for in terms of going out for qualifying, you want to go out as late as possible, get the best of the track conditions. Max Verstappen didn't set the fastest timing.

Q2 in the end, but he was fastest for much of the session until Charles LeClaire beat it very late on. Vestappen was fastest, sorry, Vestappen was faster than his teammate Sergio Perez, despite the fact that Perez was on brand new tires and set his lap about 10 minutes later than Vestappen did. That should tell you everything you need to know. And that should tell you enough in terms of it being a pure Vostappan advantage, rather than just a Red Bull advantage. Certainly, Sergio Perez has struggled in some qualifying sessions this year, but equally there have been plenty of qualifying sessions where he hasn't been too far off, Max Vastappen. Here it wasn't a contest. So I think the writing was on the wall. You could say the writing was on the wall before

Q1 started in all honesty, but certainly after he set that first lap in Q2, and you saw the other times come in, unable to beat him on, a lot of them on new fresh, fresh tires. You knew at that point that this was going to be of a stop and pole, unless anything went crazily wrong. We got to Q3 and nothing went crazily wrong.

His lap, the first time around, was more than enough to get pole position. He improved it the second time round anyway by just over a 10th. Didn't need to, but that just cemented. What I think was, the fastest, sorry, the biggest pole gap at Suzuki in nearly 20 years. And when you consider the amount of drivers that have come in between those 20 years, certainly Hamilton has had some

dominant years, Vettler's had some dominant years, Rosberg, Rikin and Button, you've got a lot of great drivers that have come in that time. None of them have been able to get that pole gap that Vostappen got today. So it has the potential to be, a massively dominant win for him tomorrow. Certainly, if he stays out of trouble, if there aren't any safety cars, we could be again looking at one of his 30 second wins that we became accustomed to seeing a bit earlier in the season,

certainly the earlier part of the European season. That became something of a norm to see Vastappen win by 20 seconds, 25 seconds, 30 seconds. Hungary was another massive one. here you could very easily be seeing the same thing again. It's all dependent on how the race flows, of course, but that is a very good start from Max Verstappen. And more than anything, it probably just proves that

the question we were asking in the preview, was Singapore a one-off? Was it anything deeper than that? It looks like it was a one-off. And this should be just the first sector alone was utterly dominant. And I think it bodes well for guitar next time out. It bodes well for sector one at Austin. Very similar sort of makeup of sector one compared to what we have at Suzuki.

The Red Bull and Vestappan just so much better than everyone else in that regard. So not only encouraging for the race tomorrow, but potentially encouraging for quite a few races upcoming. Not that they really need it at this point. I think both championships, you know, I think they might win them both. I'm going to go out on a limb. I think it might happen.

Another good weekend, though, for McLaren. Second and third place. Now, Lano Norris, we've become accustomed to seeing putting together great qualifying laps. Third place isn't out of place for what we've seen from him. And certainly, Oscar Piastri has delivered a couple of good qualifying sessions as well. Belgium springs to mind. But that's not the only one. but generally speaking, whenever Piastri has put together a good lap so far,

he at least has some experience at the track. If you weren't aware, this is the first time he's raced at Suzuki. This is the first time he's raced at Suzuki, he's on the front row of the grid, and he's out-qualified Lando Norris, a very highly regarded teammate. And again, similar to the point on Vestappen, where I mentioned his first lap was good,

enough for pole, with second lap's good enough for pole. Here, as far as I'm aware, both of Piastri's laps were good enough for P2. Certainly the second one, if not quite, was very close, but obviously the first one was more than enough anyway. The gap between Vestappen and Piastri is obviously very large, but I think, to be honest, that doesn't matter too much. I think Vastappen's in another league this weekend. But to be able to put the advantage on your teammate on Sergio Perez, both of the Ferraris, that is a good list to be ahead of. And I think at this point, most people are convinced enough that Piastri is the real deal. Certainly McLaren are convinced enough in that they've just given him a massive extension

on his contract for the next three years. This just further cements his, I would say potential, but also where he already is. he's already very good and he's just got the potential to be even better. He's only 22 years old. This is a really exciting young lineup at McLaren. They have a lot of reason to be encouraged if they can put together the car like they have this weekend rather than what it was like at the beginning of this season. They've got two drivers signed up for a very long time, both arguably not even in their prime yet. And I know Lando Norris, and I can't say I fully agree with. this, he seemed to think that McLaren have the best lineup on the grid, which is something that Lando Norris would say, obviously. But it's not mad to think that it's not far off either. Certainly in a few years' time, could I believe that it will be the best lineup in F1?

Yeah, I could fully believe that. So, well done to Oscar Piastri. That is a mega performance from him. No right to be on the front row in his first race at Suzuki. Having said that, look at where Aston Martin were. And I think this comparison is relevant because that could end up being a battle. I know at the beginning of the season, it would have been ridiculous to say anything like this, that Aston Martin and McLaren were going to be a battle. I mean, look at where the respective teams were at Bahrain. Fernando Alonso was arguably the third fastest driver outside of the two Red Bulls.

McLaren had a case to be the worst car and the fortunes have completely and utterly transitioned to the point where we've got a two three here for McLaren Fernando Alonzo is absolutely scraping into Q3 now he does maintain the record of having reached Q3 at every Grand Prix so far this season his consistency has been remarkable in that regard but of course Lance Strohl not even making it out of Q1

same as what happened at Singapore. And the pace of that Aston Martin has completely and utterly disappeared. It's something that we've mentioned on the last couple of preview episodes that these Singapore and Japan and Qatar, this run of races seem to be quite important for Aston Martin and for Fernando Alonzo's hopes of getting third in the driver's championship, which are looking more and more unlikely by the race. you know, we said how important this run of races were,

was because there are other races coming up that we're not sure we'll suit the Aston Martin car. But based on what we saw at Singapore, based on what we're seeing so far this weekend, it's not, these tracks aren't suiting that car. Or even more simply put, the car just hasn't got the pace that it once had. You know, would it have been realistic to expect Aston Martin

to maintain their advantage over the likes of Ferrari, and Mercedes for the entire year? Maybe not. But this massive downfall, I don't think that was expected either. And suddenly, McLaren, aren't that far off. Certainly, if you look at, let's say for argument's sake,

they're able to convert their second and third into a double podium tomorrow. That might be the better end of what can be achieved, but certainly they qualified there. That's 33 points. Ashton Martin are not 100 points away. So there are still races left. You know, we're not in the, you know, 20 years ago of

F1 where you get to the end of September and there's only two races left. We still have a large number of races left. We still have Qatar. We still have Brazil, the United States, Mexico, Abu Dhabi, Las Vegas. There's a lot still to fight for. And whilst I wouldn't necessarily say it is probable at this point, it is certainly possible. It is certainly plausible that McLaren can, at the very least, challenge Aston Martin at this point, and maybe even usurp them. And I know we've said this point a number of times and I don't want to labour on it. But look at what Piastri did today. There's two functioning drivers at McLaren.

There aren't two functioning drivers at Aston Martin. It's not the same thing. Fernando Alonso, there's a lot of pressure on him to be able to outscore. two papaya drivers. And based on the evidence of where their cars are today, I don't know how possible that is going to be at every Grand Prix. Fair play to Alonzo for, again, you know, just about making it into Q3.

And if there's a sniff of points tomorrow, you know he'll be able to convert whatever's possible. Obviously, Singapore didn't work out very well for him, but it's very rare that you see two down performances by Alonzo in a row. but it's worrying signs for Aston Martin. They've done the complete opposite of what they did last year. They started last year horribly and they ended it pretty well. Certainly if you remember back to 12 months ago,

Sebastian Vettel had some pretty good performances towards the end of last season. This season, complete reverse. Very good at the beginning of the year, but they are falling off very, very rapidly. And a quick mention for Ferrari because, yeah, three pole positions in a row, not happened. Unfortunately, Carlos Sines has been phenomenal in qualifying as of late, obviously coming off his latest wing at Singapore. But Charlotte-Clau was the

quicker of the two Ferrari drivers today, which shouldn't be a massive surprise. I mean, Carlos Sines has had some, again, he's had some good momentum over the last few races, and he's proven this season actually as a whole that Charles LeClau, even if he might hold a small advantage, on signs in qualifying. It's maybe not as big as what it was last season, maybe not as big as what we'd all expected it to be. They're pretty competitive in the championship at the moment. There is a chance, a good chance, based on signs being ahead,

that he could, by the end of this year, say, okay, across three years at Ferrari, I've beaten LeClaire two of those three seasons, which would be an impressive thing to be able to say, particularly coming off the back of how well he did at McLaren. The last five years or so of Sines' career have probably been a little bit underrated. But today, Charles LeCleur was the faster driver.

I think realistically, they probably got what they could out of the weekend. The only thing that might be disappointed to Sines is that he couldn't out-qualified Perez in the same way that LeCler could. There was a couple temps between the two drivers, which was consistent with the rest of qualifying. certainly what, if you look at Perez and he was seven-tenths or eight-tenths away from from Vestappan. So I don't know how disappointed you can be losing to that car, but certainly signs will feel if LeCler can do it, I feel like I should be able to do it as well.

Yeah, realistically, there's probably not too much more to say on Ferrari. I think they gave everything they could have done. Still clear of Mercedes, which ultimately is what they are most interested in at the moment. as good as McLaren are right now. McLaren aren't going to be a threat to them in the Constructors' Championship. Aston Martin as well seemed to be falling off. So this battle for P2, much like it materialised at the end of last year, is likely going to be Ferrari versus Mercedes again.

So to be able to look at Hamilton and Russell further down the top 10, I think they will take that as a minor win for now. I'm going to take a short break, not used to speaking all of these works, about interruption from one of those two idiots, but there are plenty more topics on the other side. Logan Sargent's crash, Alpha Tauri, plenty more coming up. Okay, Logan Sargent, it's a problem, isn't it? So we know that Yuki Sonoda and Daniel Ricardo have been confirmed for 2024 in the Alpha Tauri seats, which you might think, what does that have to do with Logan Sargent? Well, that now means Logan Sargent's William's seat is the only one still to be confirmed. It's not only one. It's not

usual, I guess, that we get to this point in the year and it's only one seat that's left to be confirmed. A lot of the time, it's still three or four. But yeah, the only seat to be determined is who's going to be alongside Alex Albin at Williams next year. And Logan Sargent, it's fair to say, has not done himself too many favours, not just today, but over the last month, if you look at the recent run of results, certainly, if things can change so quickly an F1. If you look at Zanvort, if you remember back to qualifying at Zanvort, Logan Sargent made Q3 for the first time in his career. Epic lap in Q2 to get into Q3 alongside Alex Albin, which realistically is what Williams need. Williams need not necessarily someone to beat Alex Albin, but someone who can be there

in and around what he's doing, which is what he did when he made it through Q2. of course he crashed in Q3 and that seems to have been the turning point not that everything was rosy before that obviously but it feels as if from that point onwards things have gone downhill very very quickly he has the crash in Zambor they then go to Monza

now Monza was they were fully expecting Williams that this was an opportunity for them just based on having scored points there last year they are straight-line speed merchants, as Alex Albin calls them, and there's no better place for a straight-line speed merchant than Monza that has about two corners. And Logan Sargent couldn't convert on that performance in Monza.

So you add that to the crash in Zambor. You go into Singapore, another crash in the race itself, one that I know Sargent's not the only one who's had this type of crash, but the one that he had in Singapore, it just looks awful, isn't it? Because it's such low speed and there's nothing you can do as a driver once you are sort of midway through that crash. But of course, that doesn't help his cause at all. Comes to Japan and within a few minutes, it's the same story again.

It's another crash. And not to say that crashes are excusable at street circuits. but they're certainly more plentiful here. I don't remember another instance of a driver going off track, let alone crashing in the way that Logan Sargent did. Certainly if you, you know, if you do get to, if you do get to a circuit like Singapore or Jedder and you crash, you can probably, I don't know, mask it somewhat

if you're one of four other drivers that have also had an incident or crashed. Here, it sticks out like a sore fun because it is the only one in the three qualifying sessions. And I think this is the crash itself reeked of desperation. And that's the situation he's in it. He's in a desperate situation where he is clinging on to this seat where any other driver who's interested in Formula One, that's their only option for 2024. Certainly you put Mick Schumann. and Liam Lawson on that list, but literally anyone, right, is now looking at that William C.

And I think if he is in a safer position or he's maybe more experienced at that last corner, I think he gets out of that far quicker than what he does. Okay, you lose the lap at that point. But if you've got the confidence that you can do it next time round or, you know, you've got the confidence that there's, you know, you can recover positions on Sunday or that your contract is secure. you're, I feel like you're getting out of that far sooner than what Logan Sargent did. It's understandable. Don't get me right.

It's fully understandable why he put his foot in and tried his best to correct it. And he did correct it. That wasn't the issue. The problem is he just ran out of road by the time he had corrected it, which is kind of a classic, it's a classic mistake to make when you're under the pressure that Logan Sargent is under. It's the sort of thing that you can get away from in most other instances, but not in Logan Sargent's case. And suddenly, I don't know, it's starting to add up from a crash perspective, not only in terms of the number of crashes, but the amount it's costing the team. And when I say costing the team, I'm talking about it from a monetary perspective, but also from a, you could see some of the faces of the mechanics that knew they were in for yet a number.

long night of repairs because of this error. It's got to be demoralizing, not only for the amount of extra work that you need to do, but they've already spent a lot of time putting the car in the position that they were hoping would be able to make it into Q2 and maybe into Q3. Certainly, you know, Alex Albin was again in the mix. And to see all that hard work undone by one error a few minutes into the session has to be demoralizing. And now I don't know whether it's recoverable. Certainly reading some of Sam's messages you can't be here today. He's thinking it's unlikely that Sergeant is going to get back in the seat for next year.

And I have to say that crash, it might have been the clincher. That one might have been the, there's no road back here. I think it would take a remarkable performance. from Sargent, maybe here or Qatar, to turn this around. But it's very unlikely at this point. Speaking of Alfa Tauri, obviously reference that Yuki Sanoda and Daniel Ricardo are back for 2024. Again, won't get into that news today. Best to save that one for when we've got Harry and Sam on board. But at least if we're looking at their qualifying session, we get to a

circuit where Liam Lawson is a little more familiar. Certainly, thanks to his time in Super Formula, he has a bit more of an association with this circuit than some of the others, far more ready for this weekend than, say, his first weekend at Zamvo or, you know, going to Singapore just in your third race is pretty brutal. This was not an easy situation, but an easier situation than what he's been involved in so far. And I think realistically, we got a good measure of where Lawson is at today. Pretty good, made it through Q2 in a car that seems to have quite a good bit of pace around here. He was able to somewhat convert on it.

Not to the extent that Yuki Sanoda, Yuki Sanoda had the advantage out there today. He was the one that made Q3. He seemed to have a couple of attempts advantage throughout the most part. this weekend, converted that in qualifying. And Sonoda's in a very good position to score points now. I think it's his first Q3 since Monaco. So it goes back quite a few races. Realistically, I think this was the best measure of where those two drivers are. And maybe based on this result, you can understand Al-Fatari's decision. I'll get into more whether I think it was the right decision midweek.

But certainly if you are looking for who is more refined right now, I'm not saying Yuki Sanoda himself is particularly refined, but I think he is closer to the finished product right now versus Liam Lawson. And I think today's performance kind of shows that. Yes, Liam Lawson has done a really good job in his reserve role, in that you can't expect the pace to be there overnight, even if you are the reserve driver for the team, it's very difficult to expect that.

You know, Piastri is an example is in a far better position now than he wasn't the first few races of his career. We're not expecting Liam Lawson to be setting the timing sheets alight. And he's done everything he's needed to do to this point in terms of avoiding the errors, taking advantage on everyone else making the errors.

Singapore was a prime example of that. But if we're looking at pure pace, this is where they're at right now. Yuki Sanoda is understander is, understandably a little bit quicker than Liam Lawson. Certainly, Lawson to Williams' rumours are probably going to start up very soon. In fact, they probably already have started up. It seems like a logical choice for both parties if they can make that work. But I think here you could understand. Certainly Yuki Sanoda, he deserves a lot of respect for that performance. He's at a

tough couple of races. I mean, hasn't finished a lap in the long. last two Grand Prix, which, you know, as weird as it sounds, might have hurt Liam Lawson, because I don't know, if Liam Lawson can convince the team that he's quicker than Liam Lawson in a Grand Prix, if they can both complete a full Grand Prix together at either Singapore or a Monza, and Lawson ends up ahead, that's something you can hang your hat on. I think that's something you can shout about. Liam Lawson's delivered a couple of good performances. but there's been no reference point. There's been no internal reference point whatsoever,

which might have actually hurt him in terms of his chances of getting a seat for 2024. But a good performance from both drivers, nonetheless. Good to see Sonoda at his home Grand Prix being able to make Q3. He's got a very good chance of points. And I don't think Liam Lawson is out of contention of points either. Certainly from his starting position, it's entirely possible. One last very quick point before I mercifully let you go.

Not that you have to be here, but yeah, you do. Maximum lap time. I'm not quite sure of the results of this yet. I'm recording pretty much directly after the session has happened. So it's unknown at the moment whether Charlerc and the two Alpha Amos, we penalised the tool for exceeding the maximum length of time on a lap, on these outlaps most specifically. Just to say, come on FIA, come on, just be consistent.

If you're not going to penalise this, you might as well just get rid of it. I think it's fundamentally a good idea because I do believe it is particularly dangerous to have slow outlaps. Well, I mean, not even really slow outlaps. It's more just slow sector threes. That's what we're most concerned about is having a huge amount of traffic and sector three and you've got someone on a fast lap coming in and are not able to, you know, not able to get out of the way or slowing yourself down.

We've been close this season to a few crashes. Spars springs to mind. There's always really bad traffic issues going into the bus stop chicanne before you start the lap. Here we seem to get quite lucky. I don't think anyone was impeded at all. Might have been one instance of impeding, but I don't remember. remember it being a continual problem. But I feel like that was probably more luck than anything else.

So I think when it comes to these maximum lap times, fundamentally, I like the idea of it. Again, I'm most concerned about sector three rather than the lap as a whole. But if you're not going to penalise it or you're not going to do something about it straight away, just scrap it. But we'll see what the outcome is on the investigation into both the Alfa Mayo drivers. and shall Leclair, but at least at the moment, nothing has been confirmed back. I am going to leave things here.

Fortunately, I'm not by myself tomorrow morning because Sam is back. Harry, of course, he isn't, because, you know, he only appears once every four, I think, is now the ratio. It was once in every three. I'm going to say it's now 25% instead. So he's not here, but Sam is here.

So we'll have a good back and forth after the grand process. getting into all the action from Suzuki. But at least for now, I will leave you. I've been Ben Hocking. Keep breaking late. This podcast is part of the Sports Social Podcast Network.