The Late Braking F1 Podcast - 2024 Australian GP Qualifying Review

Episode Date: March 23, 2024

Join Sam and Ben as they review Qualifying for the 2024 Australian GP! They discuss Verstappen outdoing the Ferrari duo, Williams' decision to give Sargeant's chassis to Albon and the shock Q2 elimination of Lewis Hamilton... FOLLOW us on socials! You can find us on YouTube, Instagram, X (Twitter) and TikTok SUPPORT our Patreon for bonus episodes, historic race reviews & more! JOIN our Discord community JOIN our F1 Fantasy League: SIGN UP & create your team, and JOIN our league (join code: C3PHEQHPU04) BUY our Merch EMAIL us at [e-mail]   & SUBSCRIBE to our podcast! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This podcast is part of the Sports Social Podcast Network. Thank you for listening to the Late Breaking F1 podcast. Make sure to check out new episodes every Wednesday and every Sunday. And a very warm welcome to the late breaking F1 podcast presented by Sam Sage and me, Ben Hocking, on what is today the review of the qualifying for the Australian Grand Prix, which you might be able to tell. We're doing it 90% volume because, we'd like to keep our partners at half-past six in the morning?

Yeah, well, I think I'm at about 30% volume because I also have a neighbour downstairs who will absolutely march up and crucify me. And, you know, folks, if you've been around a while, you know, I'm not the quietest of gentlemen in the world. So, yes, one partner upstairs, one neighbour downstairs, and the loudest man in all of England is in the middle. So we are trying to be careful and quiet and got upset people.

Do you know what's really odd? is that Harry's on zero percent volume. Oh, Harry's not here again, is he? Ah, he's done that thing again. He's good at that, just not being here. Good job, mate. See you soon. Never mind.

You might be back for tomorrow. I think he's a bit unconfirmed on that one. So, hey, you'll find out with us, folks. But anyway, we're here to talk about Australian Grand Prix qualifying. And Max Verstappen took pole position in what was, in the end, fairly comfortable margin over his nearest challenger, that being Carlos Sines in the Ferrari, promised to be a bit of a closer battle than that.

Maybe we were drawn in, but certainly through practice, Red Bull didn't quite seem as on top of things as they usually are. And even early in qualifying, it seemed fairly close, but as soon as Q3 rolled around, Max Verstappen really asserting his advantage, Sergio Perez in third,

Lando Norris in fourth, with Charler-Claire in fifth, rounding out the top five. From Verstappen's perspective, obviously him on pole position, not a massive shock in modern Formula One, Sam, but in terms of the margin itself, surprised at how big that was? Yeah, I am surprised.

Two and a bit tense is, it's not nothing in Formula One, in any other sport, you might go, well, that's the truth of a blink of an eye, but in Formula One, that is a quarter of a second. And a quarter of a second is still a lot to make up for around a race track,

around one lap, when your lap time is under one minute, 20 seconds. There's a big difference there. But I do want to commend Max Verstappen. I really do feel like as much as we saw throughout practice and the early stages of qualifying, that Red Bull looks like a bit of a struggle to hook up to really get into a comfortable place.

And Sergei Perez came out and said it quite early on in the session that the tyres were dying off most of the way through the lap, you know, but the soft tie could barely get one lap round that racetrack at full pelt, which maybe explains why there was some differences in pacing sectors and why certain things were jumping around throughout the sessions. But when it comes down to it during Q3, the three-time world champion pulls it out the bag. And he does what he does best.

He does what a champion does. And I do think it was Max Verstappen today that completely elevated that Red Bull and gave it that two-tenth separation. I do not think it was a representation of the car. I really do feel like Ferrari and Red Bull here, look incredibly close, incredibly competitive. And Carlos Science, we will go on to speak about shortly,

is recovering from his appendix being removed, and I have to commend just how brilliantly I think he has done all weekends so far. But I really do think that it was Max for Staffen today that hooked up that lap perfectly, managed the tyres brilliantly, sorting his sectors out effectively, and he delivered a consistent time across all three sectors to deliver an absolutely fantastic qualifying lap.

So whilst the gap was, bigger than expected. I do feel like we got a little bit about qualifying anticipation and excitement back. I do think it was closer. What is worrying me is the gap further down the grid between the likes of, you know, from fifth place now down to maybe 14th or 15th. It's a far larger gap than it has been. We saw a second separating the entire grid only a couple of races ago during one session and now it's a second separating the top eight. So, yeah, slightly unnerving. Yeah, I think on that last point, Lewis Hamilton's Q2 departure is something we're going to get onto in a little bit.

But it's almost like you have those top five teams, obviously five teams filling out ten positions. And it's just a question of what, is anything weird going to happen to one of those top ten that will open up an opportunity for someone else? That's essentially the situation we've had the last couple of Grand Prix, in that at Saudi Arabia, it was Olly Behrman in the Ferrari having his first qualifying session ever. That was the weird unexpected thing.

This time out it was Lewis Hamilton not getting into Q3. And both of those occasions, it's been Yuki Sonoda, who's been the benefactor of those two. But yeah, you're right. It does feel like it is a bit set at the moment in that regard. Out front, Max Verstappen, I mean, superlatives, kind of running out of them at this point, but highly impressive.

And something you said late in your point, which resonated with me quite a lot, was just how consistent it was across all sectors. So we have, even in Red Bulls' dominant times, seen that there have been certain tracks where they have been utterly brilliant in a couple of sectors and maybe only okay in a third sector, but because they're so brilliant in the other two, it doesn't matter.

Here, it felt like going into the later stages of qualifying that the staffer needed to find a bit of time everywhere. Like, he wasn't being let down by one particular sector. It didn't feel like to me. And the way he approached it was, it was just, yes, one temp faster in sector one, one temp faster in sector two. And that adds up very quickly, as you can see by the end time. You know, that, that margin was, yeah, I agree with you completely.

It was a surprise to me, which, you know, you could turn around and say, What are you being surprised for, Ben? It's Vastappan and a Red Bull. But certainly, through practice and the early stages of qualifying, even if Vastappen was the favourite football position, I figured that that gap would be less than two temps. Yeah, I think what surprised me the most actually is the competition and where it came from.

And I don't know if maybe this benefacted Vastappen the most, because as much as, okay, I have been absolutely relentless to have Red Bull and Max Vastepen, you would definitely be able to make a case to say that Saturday day's performances are not where Red Bull sits at the very top of the tower. You think of the last, I think, what, 15 or 20 qualifying sessions. I think they picked up less than half the pole positions, the others being shared across the likes of Carlos Sainz, Charlotte Clare, Lewis Hamilton, got one in Hungary, remember, and the McLarens have also been very, very close to that point

with Sergei Perez also picking up what won, I think it was. So Max Rastappen has not had an absolute clean sweep of pole positions over the last 15 to 20, on Pri. So that's where the armour shows its chinks in the in the in the in the armor. It's where it shows its weaknesses. And that's where you need to strike, I think, if you are a competitor against Red Bull. So of course, I think it's fair to say that when you see practice being that close and when qualifying one and qualifying two equally and not really being dominated by Red Bull, you think, okay, it's only going to happen here. The issue is for us as spectators that the competition kind of fell off on its own. Charlerler, who is usually the favorite to

put up an absolute fight against Max Verstappen, seemingly off the pace for the entirety of qualifying. Of course, on that final run, delivers a massive mistake running wide on the not for an ultimate corner, but the one just before that, which means that he has to abandon his lap only coming in fifth place. And Carlos Sainz, who, again, I mentioned in the start of my point, an absolutely exceptional pace for a man who is still recovering from a very intensive and intrusive surgery, gets out the car interviewed there, of course, by Martin son, Alex Brundle, who did a fantastic job. I thought always does a great job on comms, you know, expressing how are you feeling, how are you coping? And Carlos Science, first thing

out of his mouth, I'm not running at 100%. I am in pain. You know, I'm being honest with you now where I'm, you know, not operating as much as I could. Tells you everything you need to know that Max Verstappen, yes, whilst he delivered a fantastic lap, he's also going up against Carlos Science who's injured, Sergei Perez, who is not a prolific qualifier, the McLaren's aren't fast enough anyway. And Charlotte Claire make a mistake. So yes, great lap from Max, helped by the fact that other people just

are not at 100% of their game. I tend to think as well, Red Bull, like you say, they weren't struggling with qualifying last year, but relatively speaking, to its race pace it was. But actually, rather than, you've had Vastap and get three straight poles,

obviously, is a clear sign that they are doing far better in qualifying now than they were at the end. end of last season. But I think the even bigger indicator is where Sergio Perez is at, where you know, Perez was routinely missing Q3 last year. And that's just not happening so far. I know we're only three races in, but Perez has not necessarily been there with Vastappen, but it's never really been in doubt that he would make Q3 at all of the races we've had so far. He's been on the pace to finish, you know, starting the top five, which again is, is,

is what he's doing here. He's qualified third, same as what he managed in Saudi Arabia. So I tend to think it's not just for Stappan's poll positions that are an indication that Red Bull have turned the corner a little bit in terms of qualifying. It is Perez's performances as well. Yeah, Perez is definitely the biggest improvement

across all of the competitors that we saw fighting at the front last season. I think he has taken that big step up. I don't know if it's the car stability. The car does look like it's on absolute rails so far this season. And Perez does seem more happy. and comfortable. But he's now delivering realistically the last weakness. He's recovered on that front from what Red Bull have been looking at when they were looking at replacing that second seat. Who could they go for? Was it would be Ricardo, Sonoda, an outside higher, maybe science,

of course, who is looking for a seat? The question was, well, Sergio Prez's race pace has always been fine, but he lets himself down because he's not starting in a high enough position to actually make the most of that strong race pace. Currently, so far this season, he's rectifying that. as long as he's always within two or three places of that top spot, he's able to get the moves done and put that car into second place where Red Bull need him to be come the end of the weekend. Currently, maximum points other than fastest laps so far this season. Yeah, and I mean, fair play to Sergio Perez in that he and Lando Norris

and obviously Carlos signs, they take advantage of things like Charlotte Clare not being on the pace and maybe to an ex, I don't know if he quite would have got there today, but maybe Fernando Alonzo in that same regard, where if there are other drivers that aren't quite on their A game, they're just able to fill in the gaps, which is what Perez has done here. I was surprised, like you,

that Shell LeClaire wasn't more in the fight. And as you say, he did mess up his final run in Q3. Although you have to say that, even if you finish the lap, it's not like it was against the grain, right? Signs did have the pace on LeClaire pretty much all day. so, you know, people will focus on the mistake,

but actually LeCleur's pace wasn't on it with his team, mate. No, science was the fastest Ferrari driver so far this weekend. We'll see if that's going to be able to be maintained during the race pace. Of course, we know he has still got that injury that he's recovering from. That might cause him to have to lighten up a tenth or so a lap just to maintain the G-force. Of course, it's being absorbed by his body. But Sherlock, yeah, unusually off the pace.

The man, especially on a Saturday, is usually relentless when it comes to applying that top-level pace. But mistakes being made, under-Skear is clearly a factor of his setup that he's got at the moment. But science looks, he looks firm, he looks strong, he looks comfortable.

Even with that injury, I don't know if he's being spurred on by knowing that he hasn't got to seek next season. He has to seek every chance to make the biggest impression he can on any possible, you know, like I said before, he's essentially a moving billboard right now.

He needs to advertise every single part of his skill set to any employer going. and I think he's doing a tremendous job of it. If I can look at a driver and go, you've just come out of major surgery and now you're still on the front row and you're beating your teammate by three months, what can you do and you're fully recovered?

That's a great sign for Carlos Sons fans. From the driver that qualified in first in Max Verstapp and down to the driver that qualified in 12th, that being Alex Albin. Now, the Williams have been in the news quite a bit over the last couple of days, owing to a decision they had to take regarding Albin and his teammate Logan Sargent. Alex Albin, of course, crashed on Thursday's practice session,

leaving Williams with only one chassis to go ahead with throughout this weekend. But rather than Alex Albin sit out the weekend because it was his crash, they elected to make the decision that Logan Sargent would sit out and Alex Albin would take Logan Sargent's chassis. So Logan Sargent, of course, made no appearance in qualifying today. he will make no appearance in the race tomorrow either. Hotly debated as to whether this was the right decision or not, where do you land on it? It's a really tricky scenario and I would argue this is the first time we've seen something like this since or when Red Bull gave Sebastian Vetter, Mark Weber's front wing, maybe.

Sure. It's been at least a decade since we've seen a real teammate moment where they're just, I mean, that even isn't as bad. as not being given a car, right? That was just an upgrade. So, tricky one. So it's come to light that Williams are struggling to use Microsoft Excel, which is an interesting development in the world of Formula One. It is the world's hardest program.

But let me tell you that once you crack it, Microsoft Excel is genuinely one of the best things that the world has ever created. So they've decided that whilst using Microsoft Excel, they thought it would be a great idea to not create. a third chassis for cost saving measures. So that's the impact of the cost cap because they're trying to get ahead in their developmental cycle

to make sure that they can get games later on in the year and in further seasons by putting the money into development rather than building a third, essentially a safety backup chassis. A lot of the teams, I think actually all of the teams, by Williams,

have got a third chassis at the track at the moment. Very common, very normal. Now, Alex Halman puts it in the wall. He gets Logan's sergeant's chassis. this is really, really tricky. I think there are two schools of thought here. The first is how do you look at it from a Williams point of view? Williams themselves have to look at what their best opportunity for maximizing the weekend is.

And you'd argue that the man that has scored 84% of all Williams's points since 2022 is probably your safest pair of hands for securing points if that chance were to arise. And to me, that does make sense. He's done a very, very good job at being consistent, qualifying well and maximising the car. Equally, if you're Logan's sergeant, you've got to look at this and make the argument that, well, Alex Albon binned it on his own here this time last year. Alex Albon has bing it again on his own this time this year.

I've been pretty close to his pace all season so far. He hasn't particularly finished high above me, other than the mechanical issue that he had in Bahrain, of course, which, you know, some would argue wasn't his fault. And Logan Sargent has been taking on leaps and bounds. in terms of his performance. The other school of thought, of course, is that Alex's album binned it on his own. He is the problem.

He's the one that put it in the wall. Lovin Sargent drove a completely clean session and did a great job. And yet he's the one that is paying the price. He's the one that's being punished for someone else's mistake. So there is a lot of me that just thinks that William Chittanger say, well, tough, Alex, you put it in the wall. You knew the risks that we had here with only one chassis each. you're now going to have to sit out and Logan Sargots can I have to take the punt

but equally Formula One is also a team game Formula One is about scoring as many points as you can and we've seen just how rare a commodity points are in this current season so one point and I would agree that Alex Albon is by far the more likely to score them could be worth so much at the end of this season if for example if if Harrison Williams is only two now to score points and there's three teams below them on zero that could put them in seventh place again That's huge money that they could gain.

So whilst it is harsh, whilst it is really unfair on Logan's sergeant, I want to emphasise that he does not really deserve the treatment. I do understand it. And logically, mathematically, it does make sense to do what they've done. But good Lord, do I feel for Logie Bear, the boy deserves to have a drive when he did nothing wrong. I want to talk you through my thought process on this, because it was a really weird one in that I was on one side of the argument and then completely shifted to the other side. So when I saw the news come through, immediately I thought my mind is made up.

Sometimes I need to look at something like a few times or mullet over to think, well, what exactly do I think about this? This I didn't have to do that at all. I saw the news come through and I was like, great, yeah, in vows we trust, right decision. Of course it's right decision. Alex Alvin is way more likely to get points than Logan Sargent. this is a business. Is it unfair? Yeah, sure. But it's F1. F1 is a very binary sport. We look at points at the end of the year. That's all that matters. Could elevate them in the championship. Way more prize money. Alex Albin has proven race after race after race, he's way more likely than Logan Sargent on an average weekend to score points. Of course this is the right decision. And then I realized I was completely and utterly wrong. Because there's something that not a lot of people are talking about here.

And I, at least when I first saw the news, forgot about it as well. But last season, so much was made, or so little was made, I guess, of Williams's lack of caring, I guess, for whether they beat Alfatari in the championship. You'll remember that there was the battle for seventh and ultimately, you know, Williams did end up finishing seventh, but there was a lot of quotes at the time from James Vowles and others basically saying it'd be great if we finish there, but also we're not here to finish seventh. We're just here to build the foundations for future years. That's what we're looking to do right now. And surely, based on where Logan Sargent is at in his career right now, the only reason

they are hiring him this year is based on his potential. They're not hiring him based on where he is right now, because that would be ludicrous. They're just, they're hiring him based on what they think he could be. therefore, surely everything you do this season for Logan Sargent should be about getting him to a position where you are comfortable with him in your car. I think we can realistically say, I know there's only three races in. Williams are not going to be fighting this season for where they eventually want to end up. They're not going to be fighting for anything higher than probably where they were fighting for last year. in which case, I think they've made a short-term decision here that goes against everything Williams have been trying to do in the last couple of years. Williams, we've given them a lot of credit

to say they are looking long-term. They're looking at going back to the glory days of winning championships that they know they're not going to get that overnight. Therefore, they're making hiring decisions and they're making other decisions that aren't looking at short-term points. It's looking at long-term success. this feels like it goes completely against that and contradicts it. Because whilst Alex Albin is more likely to score a point this weekend, what will that result at the end of the year? It could result in a seventh place rather than an eighth. But as history tells us, as in last year's history tells us,

that's not what they're worried about. So I actually think they are not for, not because it's unfair, I just don't think it's the right decision overall based on what they're trying to get from Logan Sargent. I came to essentially the same conclusion. I also, I went down the Youngfair route as a very simple man. It feels like you made a mistake. It's Formula One.

Oh, yeah. Right. And Logan didn't do anything wrong. And I don't know a single other team where I would expect this to be the decision that is made, you know, anywhere else. If Max Verstappen been doing and practice and they ruined his only chassis, do I think they go? Sergio, get out the car. No, I genuinely don't think Red Bull would do it to them. And I think that this is unfair.

I think that Logan Sargent was doing well and he deserves to have his chance in the sun. And yeah, develop. And the only reason I can think of that if he's not there for developmental purposes, he's there because he brings in a different form of sponsorship. And if that's the case, they really don't care about him. But this is a huge vote of no confidence from Williams.

And if they're trying to build up his confidence and his consistent ability, and the way he delivers on track, the worst thing you could have done would be to snatch away his car when he did absolutely nothing wrong and go. The guy who crashed is still better than you right now. It would upset me.

And he put in his press statement, didn't he, that this is the hardest thing he's had to do in his motorsport career so far. Yeah. Like you say, I mean, it's about confidence. Surely William sat down at the beginning of this year to say this is where Logan Sargent is now. This is where we need to get him to.

And in order to get him from point A to point B, we need to build his confidence and give him opportunity to shine. This is strictly working against that, which so long-term brain thinking, like, I just don't, I don't think it makes sense. Especially right, with the choice of not building a third chassis to try and gain in the future, to try and gain that developmental time, that, that budgetary change that allows them to invest in the future, you must have said to your drivers, there is a real risk that if you crash the car, we do not have anything as a backup.

We will be out of this Grand Prix. And the team are trying to make massive sacrifice to develop into the future, long-term game. Please be sensible. Please be careful. Session, what won, was it? puts it in the wall and damages the car. And Logan Sargent, yeah, you're right.

It goes against the grain for what Williams have been doing. And this is probably the first area of the Vowles administration that I have gone. I'm not sure I see eye to eye with you on this one, James. Okay, we'll take our break on this episode. On the other side, we've got more qualifying chat. Okay, very warm, welcome back. One of the surprises of qualifying was Lewis Hamilton being eliminated in Q2.

So he'll start the Grand Prix from 11th place, which was mentioned on commentary as being his worst qualifying position at Australia in 13 years or so. Mercedes really overall continued to struggle because whilst George Russell, of course, outqualified his teammate again and did make it through to Q3, it's not like he was able to do a great deal with getting through to Q3,

which goes against where they were in final practice, where it looked a bit more encouraging. At least from Lewis Hamilton's perspective, Sam, he hasn't exactly qualified brilliantly in the first two races, but he has at least made it through to Q3. it's a bit worrying, right? Yeah, a bit worrying. I called out in our race preview session

when we did our episode that Lewis Hamilton is my man under pressure and you can see all the way through the practice sessions that he was struggling. P3 was the outlier to see him so high up the session and to see him beating George Russell.

I think he ended practice two in something like 16th place. The car is not where his happy place right now. He is not at home in that car and he's come out of seven. he's never felt more uncomfortable in this current car so far. So clearly these experiments that they've applied are not suiting either driver, but Lewis Hamilton is struggling.

He is on Struggle City right now. He's on that struggle busting O Points Town because him and George Russell were less than a tenth part when Lewis Hamilton got knocked out. Realistically, George Russell is equally as fortunate to not be sitting there in 11th place with Lewis Hamilton in 12th place or the other way around where, you know, Hamilton could be in 10th and Russell at 11th. But we've seen this trend continuing where Russell was just able to maximize that car a little bit more than what Lewis Hamilton is able to, especially in qualifying trim.

And he's now qualified Lewis Hamilton for five Grand Prix in a row, which is, oh, I don't know if that's a brand new stat, but it feels like the first time that's happened in a long time where Hamilton's been beat by a teammate five times in a row in qualifying. The car isn't good. We can see the car isn't good. do think that is being compounded by, oh, it sounds harsh to say, bad driving. Lewis Hamilton's on board lap when he got knocked out in Q2 was not a good lap. And yes, that is a mixture of the car being difficult to drive.

And I also think he's overworking the car. I think he is making mistakes. You know, he's missing apex is due to understeer. He's then having to catch the car, which is trying to swap on him due to oversteer. He's losing time in so many different areas of the track that if he just tied, up one corner, half a tenth is all he needed to get himself into Q3. But realistically, these are tiny, tiny changes that a driver can make. And what is it going to deliver when the car is arguably only the fourth or fifth best car? I argue it's equal to Ashton Martin right

now. And I do think we're starting to see that McLaren have taken a step forward and are now ahead of Mercedes. Ferrari, of course, comfortably ahead and Red Bull are literally in a different formula at this point to them. The downfall without this cost-cap adjustment that Mercedes are allowed to abuse for year after year after year before it came into effect is clearly showing. And they just are floundering. They don't seem to have a technical direction that they understand and that they can go in. And Lewis Hamilton can't really get too much more out of it. And George Russell, who I think is doing a good job.

You know, what was the eighth? Or seventh, I think it was. I think he's only there because Sonoda did a brilliant job. And the Aska Martins, I don't think they could do any more. So it kind of got a little bit lucky that he was as. high as seventh. Yeah, it's not looking good for Mercedes and it's looking like an even worse job for Hamilton, who I'm sure is desperately looking at the top end of that grid and going,

oh, put me in the red car now, please. Or in that blue one, that'd be okay as far. I'll actually have any car actually other than this one, please. Oh, dear. Yeah, it's tough times for Mercedes, really tough times. And this was essentially called out. I think it was Martin Brundel in commentary in Q1, where Hamilton and Russell weren't that great.

And Martin Brundle said words to the effect of, you know, it's top 10 into Q3. It might be quite close. And ultimately, it was. And, you know, Lewis Hamilton knocked out in 11th place. Like you say, it was fairly close. But for me, the most worrying thing is, is not that he didn't make it through to Q3.

It's that he wouldn't have had the pace to do anything if he did make it through to Q3. like, okay, he might have got there, but I don't think he was beating anyone other than the two Aston Martins and Sonoda, who obviously one of them would have been knocked out in Q2 at his expense if it worked out that way. But there was not a top six on the cards here for either Mercedes driver, which of course, you know, George Russell qualified quite well in Bahrain. It feels a long time ago now. That was not on today. And it's worrying for, I mean, from Lewis Hamilton's perspective, if you look at the first three races in terms of qualifying,

he is Yuki Sanoda. He is Yuki Sonoda in that both of their best qualifying positions have been eighth so far this year. Both of their worst qualifying positions so far this year have been 11th. They both have two Q3 appearances and one Q2 knockout. He's essentially completely matching Yuki Sanoda and qualifying this year, which no disrespects to Sonoda who's been doing a good job, but this is Lewis Hamilton we're talking about. And as you say, that's not five races in a row where George Russell has outqualified him, going back to the last two races, of course, of 2023. So I don't know.

Like, it's race pace-wise, they seem to be a little bit better than qualifying, but not enough that it makes much of a difference. And I mean, what are the expectations for Hamilton tomorrow? Okay, I think he can probably get into the points. but how far? I wouldn't, I wouldn't bank on it being much more than, you know,

4.6 points that are up for grabs tomorrow. Absolute ridiculous lines that we're saying things like, I kind of think he could get into the points tomorrow. This is the team that delivered that many championships and race wings in a row. And now it's kind of a, yeah, they're a kind of a fringe points team.

George Russell is arguably maximizing the car. Who do we think they could be? probably Lance Stroll. If Fernando Alonso has a good Grand Prix, I would place a bet on him challenging Russell throughout the race. And I guess Yuki Sunoda, who has done brilliantly in qualifying,

is probably going to fall backwards a little bit. You know, he might finish 10th or 11th and maybe swap places with the likes of Lank Stroll and Lewis Hamilton, because I do think Ashton and Mercedes race pace is better than the RB. But yeah, this is dire times and they need to find something very special

to make some changes. I did hear in the old news, in the gossip columns, that they've decided to hire some Ferrari mechanics. So the interest is to see what ones they got? Did they get the ones that don't know what plan A, B, and C are? Or did they get the ones that do actually understand aerodynamics? Yeah, I will see how it goes for Mercedes tomorrow. It was similar to Saudi Arabian qualifying, where in sector one, which, let's face it, sector one is just straight, chicane, straight, and then a couple more corners, and that's it. And they're like four temps down on Vestappen's time.

You try to get excited, don't you try to think, okay, there's a chance. They might be doing something here. And you see, especially with Hamilton, you saw the time come up. He was 4.426 or something off of Vestappen being. And again, we said this. whilst the gap out front was good. It's not for Stauffin's biggest margin either by far. This grid up the front is actually quite compact.

So to be half a second away in sector one alone is atrociously slow. It is mind-boggling that they have fallen that far away from the top pace. Yeah, you're never getting that time back. Menardi, so we've already focused on Yuki Sonoda getting through to Q3. But of course, Daniel Ricardo was knocked out. in Q1. Put together time-wise, a fairly good lap in Q1. However, he was, I was going to say he, he was track limits wise. It wasn't all that close, was it? He was, he extended track limits by quite a lot. So, of course, his fastest lap was deleted that would have been good enough to get

through to Q2. And instead, he, he was knocked out in Q1 and will start the race from 18th position. so a lot of work for him to do. What did you make of the session? Because you could look at it through the lens of he hasn't shown a great deal of pace so far this year, but did show good pace in that lap that was invalidated. Of course, it counts for nothing. So what do you think?

I mean, yeah, you've got to play by the rules to win some prizes, I'm afraid. And yeah, okay, his pace looked positive. But Danya Ricardo just seems to have a real issue in managing these ground effect downforce cars. and he has shown that his consistency, which again, previously in his career where he was originally at Red Bull, was a real strength of his to be able to carve his way through the field, to be able to deliver where others couldn't, is slipping away from him. So when Yuki Sanoda is able to extract a qualifying session that delivers 10 places higher than you, it shows that the ability is there.

I feel like Daniel Ricardo is someone who is, he knows he's under a little bit of pressure from both the public, from the press, and of course from the internal rebel hierarchy to start delivering. And that pressure is causing mistakes such as these because he could have pushed that car 1% less through that complex of corners, through terms 10 and 11 or 9 and 10, whichever it is now,

and kept the car on the track. And realistically, he had the pace to get himself into Q2. He might have ended up being 14th or 15th, but it doesn't matter, because at that point, you're through to Q2 and you can get back to the pits, you can reassess, and you can go again. And it's not like Yuki Sanoda was setting the world ablaze when he was going through Q1, but he managed to deliver consistently strong lap times, which allowed him to not ever feel panicked going into the final run of the session, which meant he had to pull out an absolute wonder lap to ensure that his session carried on.

So Daniel Ricario did show good pace, but at the end of the day, it's only good pace if you keep it within the white lines. And he didn't, and he let himself down again. and the scoreboards will show that this is Yuki Sanoa 3, Daniel Ricardo Nile, and Ricardo has to make up at least six or seven places to be even in the fight for where Yuki Snow is going to be all race long. If you ain't got the speed, you need to come up with another way. If you've got the speed, you've got to learn to deliver it on track. And Ricardo is not doing either property at the moment.

He's not racing smart and he's not racing fast. Yeah, I think those six or seven cars in front of him, in theory he has the car to get to to beat them like in terms of pure pace yuki senoda's proven that it is possible however it's a different proposition to qualify ahead of cars you think you can beat and therefore you know go off into the distance it's a different prospect to qualifying behind them and being like 1% faster than them but not being able to overtake them because that's kind of the position that to be honest both sonoda and ricardo have been in over the last couple of races, is having a car that is capable of more than what they've been

able to deliver, but just not quite having enough of a pace advantage to actually make it count. Now, in theory, if Sonoda, I know Sanoda qualified well in Saudi Arabia as well, if he can start better and doesn't get a poor pit stop and doesn't, you know, get trapped behind any other cars behind him, in theory, he should have the car too, I think probably stay in. the points, maybe the lower end of the points, but I think that that fight is definitely on. With Ricardo, he might be forced to try something different. If he doesn't have the outright pace advantage to overtake those cars in front of him, it's going to have to come via strategy or something else. So it's not ideal, as you would say. It's not ideal. Equally,

I think this is a really strong place that Daniel Ricardo can show us what Daniel Ricardo can do. If that car is fasting enough to be, you know, up alongside a lot of the cars in front of him. And when you look at the cars in front of him, it should not be too difficult for a driver of his calibre to get through. You've got cut of horses. You've got Ockong in the Al-Ping, who's absolutely blitzk it once again. You've got Albonne in the Williams, who, OK, qualified brilliantly, but is the race pace there. The hardest car, you have to argue, of course, is the fact that he's got to get possibly past either Lewis Hamilton, or he's got to get through the two Ascom Martin guys to make it back into the points.

Daniel Ricardo has been a concombe professional when it comes to making overtake stick. Let's see if he could deploy that once again at his home Grand Prix and show us the Daniel Ricardo of old. A quick mention on Hasse, because they must have heard the praise we were giving them from Saudi Arabia because they decided, nope, that's enough of that. Nikolkulkenberg a surprise Q1 knockout and Kevin Magnuson didn't make it much further than that. Surprise that they didn't offer a little bit more? I mean, one good grand prixing them every 10 years. I think that's how it goes at the moment. Sure.

I think what happened was, is I put Niko Holger-Hulkeberg into my fantasy team. Oh, mate. That's where I've let the side down, folks, by putting my actual faith in Haas, which was a ferry, I know, it was blasé and it was risky, and I clearly paid the price. They've gone, no, Sam, you've slated us off for long enough. You've now put your faith in us, and we will not deliver. We will let you down immediately. And they have, yeah, no, this is surprising.

I really did think that whilst... Whilst I thought Q2 was probably likely for both cars, unless we got a bit of a Hulk and Berg wonder session, I was very surprised to see them so far at the back. I think they're what, they're 16th and 17th or 15th and 16th. And I would expect them to be maybe 11th or 12th or kind of 12th or 13th with the pushing, knocking on the door of that Q3 session

because the race pace was so strong around Saudi that I really thought they'd be, if Yuki Sanoda was 10th, I really thought they'd be right there with him. Same as Alex Album. I really thought those four were going to be almost a little bit of a group that were able to possibly be the ones knocking on the door of the point sessions to maybe disrupt the very standard set of Q3 teams that we're seeing at the moment. And they're just nowhere. The fact that Ocon was able to beat both of the harsh guys, the fact that, you know, Albon was so clear.

It's really surprising to see that how quickly they went for being on such a high in Saudi to once again being slumped back down. Essentially both cars out in Q1. it really was not a good turning around a form. Yeah, I was surprised by this because where they qualified is where it looked like they would be. Like throughout the practice sessions, you were like, well, they're not quite kicking on here, as you would expect them to. And look, our expectations for Hass aren't exactly they're going to be qualifying one too. But Holkenberg has semi-regularly delivered Q3 performances over the last, you know, 12 months or so. here never looked on the cards.

And of course, unless I'm getting this wrong, if Ricardo's lap had stuck, they would have been the only team with a double Q1 knockout, which isn't a great look. And that's why Magnuson made it through. It wasn't necessarily his own great lap that got in there. It was someone else falling afoul of track limits.

And yeah, generally speaking, that's where they've been better. they've been better in qualifying than they have in the race. So to see them so far down, we'll see if that race pace from Saudi Arabia reappears. But a track they usually have some good pace at, not a lot to offer.

The only thing that screams positive for me with this slightly difficult situation is that last season, their qualifying pace completely outshone their race pace. They had no ability to convert one into the other. So if this is flipped it, if we're now going the other way, where they've actually gone, the race pace is sourced.

We're good in the race, but they don't know how to qualify anymore. If it means they're going to spend the race going forwards rather than coming backwards, that is a positive to take away. I would rather them have to fix their qualifying pace than their race pace. So, you know, fingers crossed for your house. Hopefully you do move forward a little bit. If they finish, I don't have 11th and 12th, that's still good progress. No points, but that is better progress.

I appreciate we'll be reviewing bold predictions tomorrow. but your Holkenberg and putting him into your fantasy team isn't the worst thing that's happened this week. When it happened, I'm not going to let you reveal it, but when the news came out, I audibly laughed. I did the most evil laugh ever when the news came out. I had temporarily forgotten about it that my bold prediction midweek

was that Logan Sergeant was going to score a point. And I am utterly wrong. because I think everyone, I'd be surprised if anyone disagrees with this. Logan Sargent was definitely on course for a point. So I think I deserve half a point because it would have been right. I'm going to say you deserve half of nothing, which is still nothing, mate. Sorry, that's how the cookie crumbles. But it's so late breaking that, you know, they've gone,

your bold predictions are so bad. We'll just not bother letting you even get one in the bag. Just before the weekend starts, just stop. before we get out of here, Sam, who was your driver of the session? I'm going to give this one to Carla Sanks. I was definitely surprised at how quick he was after recovering from that surgery. I'm even more surprised just how compounded he was in his pace against Charles LeCler, and the fact that he's picked up a front row start.

He is the man if he gets a good start in the race tomorrow could spice things up. So the smooth operator for me is the driver of the session. Fair shout. Obviously, Vastappans, as always, a contender on this. I'll give it to Yuki Sonoda. Strong effort. I feel like he maximised what that car was capable of. And actually, got a little bit more. I don't think the Aster Martins hooked up a Q3 lap, but hey, Yuki Sanoda was there to take advantage of that. So he'll start eighth when arguably, I feel like the pace of the car was probably good enough for 10 for 11th. So good job. from Sonoda again.

Alonso was not good, was he? No. It was a bad Q3. It was kind of scruffy from the... I mean, there were a couple of good laps in there, but it was... Even when it was good, it was a bit scrappy, I fought from him.

I also don't understand why he then tried to hug the inside pit wall on his final run down to the pit lane. That's definitely got to be slower. Yeah. I think that's just Alonzo being Alonzo. It's just gone, this is bad. I'm just going to have fun.

Yeah. I think so. Well, my bold prediction was that Lance Stroll would beat a longsau, so we'll see. Yeah, exactly. Stroll has the better starting position in that regard, albeit by one place. We'll be able to review that and much, much more on tomorrow's race review, which will be, or another early one. We're not complaining about it, though, folks.

We're not complaining about it. No, we're yawning our way through it while we smile with silly, puffy tag faces that we're definitely trying to recover from. Folks, thanks for tuning in. If you want to make sure you get more F1 content, we're also going to be recording our power rankings for the review tomorrow, and that goes up on Patreon. So if you want to hear our power rankings and our further thoughts about the F1 season

and the classic Royal Prix review and beer with breaking and so many other things, then check out Patreon. It helps us out massively, and we appreciate it. Do tuning because we're going to be getting up for the race live, and then we immediately sit down to record this podcast, the moment the race is done. So, you know, we're pushing all the way through. No complaints.

We're doing it for the love of the game. And thank you so much for those of you that do join in and listen with us. Hope your bold predictions come well at home. I hope you score more points that we do. It's not hard, but still, lucky to be on your side. And we will see you when it does happen. In the meantime, I've been Samuel Sage. And I've been Ben Hocking.

And remember, keep breaking late. This podcast is part of the Sports Social Podcast Network. Thank you.