The Late Braking F1 Podcast - Are Mercedes favourites in Melbourne?

Episode Date: March 12, 2020

It's time to return to racing! The Australian Grand Prix is just around the corner and the guys are here with their preview of the race. Will Mercedes win? If so, which driver? And of course Bold Predictions makes a triumphant return. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This podcast is part of the Sports Social Podcast Network. Thank you for listening to the Late Breaking F1 podcast. Make sure to look out for new episodes every Thursday and Grand Prix Sundays. Hello and a very warm welcome to the late breaking Formula One podcast. We are previewing the Australian Grand Prix, the first Grand Prix in the 2020 season. Sam and Harry, how are you guys? I am so pumped. But it is actually the week leading up to a proper Formula One race.

Why does it feel like it's been a, I didn't say the normal saying, but why does it feel like it's been literally like a thousand years since the last season? Because it has been. We're now in 320. I'm so old. But we're still here providing excellent Formula One content. You can't stop us. We've got a lot to get through today.

We're going to be looking at who we think might be favourite. for the race. We're going to be looking at Ferrari. Is there going to be a one-upmanship from either Shao LaClaire or Sebastian Vettel after this race? And of course, the return of bold predictions. I can't wait for that segment.

But first of all, Sam, before we go any further, before we talk about this weekend, you've got an LB announcement to make. An LB announcement, indeed. That's right. The three of us are not having a baby, and the three of us are not getting married,

something a little more fun than that. We're doing a merch giveaway. No, not LB merch. Oh, look at that. All right. Thanks for clapping. It's not an LB merch giveaway. It's a, it's a, it's a, an F1 merch giveaway.

We're going to do two rounds. We'll have a Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing 2020 cap. And then the next round will be a Charlotte Claire Ferrari official 2020 cap. They're all going to be over on Twitter. So you've got to enter, you've got to be following our Twitter. You'll have to retweet the tweet that it's put out that is surrounding it. And you'll be having to tag. Yeah, F1 Buddy in the coming.

So if you've done all these three things, you're valid for entry. You can win both as well. So don't think, oh, I've got away with one cap. Well, you could get away with two. So, yeah, get down to Twitter. It's all linked below. Find a tweet.

Get involved. We're buzzing to send out some quality F1 merch. Absolutely. Get on that. Some great prizes. And that is at L breaking for those looking for us on Twitter. So get involved and see if you can win yourself a cap. But first of all, we're going to be looking at the,

weekend and we're going to be thinking about who will be favourites. Now, Mercedes, of course, won the Australian Grand Prix in 2019 by quite some margin. They've looked pretty good in testing. They're going for a clean sweep in this era looking for another driver's championship and constructors championship. Sam, I'm going to start with you. Do you think Mercedes are favourites heading into the Australian Grand Prix? I mean, you'd be silly to think they aren't favourites heading into the Australian Grand Prix due to the fact that their technology advancements seem to wow every single time we have a testing period. They wow at the end of every season beforehand.

They've been the dominant car every single year since we've had the hybrid year of start. But what concerns me is I think two out of the last three times we've come to Melbourne, a Mercedes hasn't won. And I don't think Hamilton's won at all in those periods. I think Bottas won last year. I think it was Vettel twice to two years before, possibly. I'm sure I'll be correcting if I'm very wrong. But I'm pretty certain that Hamilton, it's almost just being second place,

almost every single time. So Ferrari, not Ferrari, sorry, Mercedes don't seem to go too well around Melbourne. We'll see if that all changes. I still think they are favourites, just to how good they can be around every circuit on the F1 calendar.

But I don't think it's as clean cut as is, as is a given. You know, you think Mercedes, probably constructors champions, pretty obvious that they're going to be strong. But yeah, for me, it's not as clear as you once think. but I do think they are just the favourite still, regardless of history.

All right. So Mercedes are favourites, according to Sam, but by a slim margin. Harry, do you think that Mercedes are favourites for the race? I tend to agree with Sam on this one, because I do think they are the favourites going. Well, if you look at testing, they're former testing. But yeah, I agree with Sam. It's the first race of the season. You don't always know what might happen.

Hamilton's had a fair few polls in Australia, but never really converted them into wins. He won in 2015, I think. And I think that's his only Mercedes victory in Oz. So he's obviously quick. But yeah, you just don't know what happens in the first race of the season. It's not a clear-cut thing. So I'm not going to say they're not the favourites,

but, you know, someone could steal a weird result. I mean, Felipe Nazar got a point. Salba once. So that tells you everything you need to know about the first race of the season. Anything can happen if Felipe Nasser can score a point in Australia. Exactly. I'm going to agree with you both and say that Mercedes are favourites. I mean, they have been fairly good in the hybrid era, I think, at the circuit.

Last year in particular, they were very strong. Bottas won by a country mile and Hamilton was quite a ways ahead of anyone else in the field too. I mean, Mercedes, they have potentially had longer to work on their car. Obviously, it's tough to say at this point in time. But you look at when they wrapped up the championship in 2019, you could probably say after about eight races, that it was almost a certainty that they were going to go on and win. So they might well have prioritized their car earlier than Ferrari and Red Bull.

And if that's the case, they might well be more ready. We've already seen with dual axis steering that they have brought innovations to this car. they haven't rested on their laurels. They are still looking to improve right at the end of this era. And I think they are favourites going into the weekends. You know, testing, they looked fairly strong. Obviously, that can't tell you everything because they didn't look particularly strong last year and they went to Australia and they absolutely whipped Ferrari and Red Bull's asses.

But there wasn't anything to be worried about from testing. I think that is the biggest takeaway you can really see. Maybe they had a few reliability engine questions. in the second half of the week. I'm going to go on experience and say they haven't, they really haven't struggled with reliability for all these years. I don't think it starts this year. So yeah, I'm saying Bottas and Hamilton are the favourites.

I mean, since we've got an agreement on that, Sam, do you think that there is a favourite between the two drivers? Do you see either then perhaps be the favourite? I think as we discussed, as you mentioned a minute ago, in terms of qualifying, Hamilton has always been incredibly strong. I know that Bottas almost matched Hamilton last time out. I think Hamilton just picked him in Abu Dhabi actually last season, which is really impressive because you look at Hamilton,

and the first thing you think, other than Best Driver of All Time, is incredible Saturday performances, you know, holding those poll records to extreme standards. But I do think Bottas is strong in Melbourne. I mean, it's one of those circuits he seems to go really well at. Obviously, he won last season. It works a bit like the likes of Russia. you know, he seems to just be really, really strong around that kind of circuit.

Although, I just think Hamilton, if you didn't have put money on someone, it's hard not to put money on a possible seven-time world champion come the end of the season. So I think just through consistency, through keeping out of danger, knowing how to run a full race, and then that Saskay performance, I think Hamilton's still just pips him. Harry, do you think Hamilton's the favourite? I don't want to go against what I just said that he doesn't convert polls in Australia

but he's not not converted to the poll there since 2015 so if he if he does a qualifying that he normally does in Australia I think this year he could he could you know the odds are in his favour because surely it's time for another win in odds that's been five years so I but I do think Bottas will be there like Sam says, he does seem to go well. Even in his Williams days, he seemed to go well in odds. I don't know.

The start of the season, you just don't know what can happen. He could get punted out at turn one. And then, I don't know, a Sauba wins. Alfa Romeo, sorry, sorry. Yeah, get it right. I'm not willing to say that I think Hamilton's a favourite here. I think it's a fairly 50-50 split. And if you have to ask me which of the two drivers is better,

obviously I'm going to say Lewis Hamilton. I don't think it's really close. But like you have rightly said, Bottas is particularly strong at this circuit. And we found that he has those four or five circuits where not only can he match up with Lewis Hamilton, you can argue he's better than Lewis Hamilton. Bottas's problem is not at his peak.

Like, Bottas's peak is good enough, I think, to compete with Lewis Hamilton. The problem is Bottas can't do it enough. and Lewis Hamilton can. So I think there's every chance that Bottas wins we saw last year. That might have been Bottas' most impressive performance, full stop. You know, he really delivered in Melbourne last year.

And if you think back to sort of the end of 2018 now, Bottas really needed a win at the beginning of 2019 to silence some critics and to, you know, get back on track. I don't think he necessarily needs that this year because he raced fairly well in 2019. But I think after he's had an extended break, Bottas is particularly strong. He kind of,

he has the opportunity to get away, go back to Finland, sort of escape all of the shenanigans that occur within F1, and then just really relax it and be right back on it again in Australia. I feel like Bottas puts a great deal of emphasis of starting the year strong, whereas Hamilton, I guess, recognises that it isn't all

about the first few races. and it's more of a marathon than a sprint. You rightly say, Hamilton hasn't had a great record in Australia. I think that's probably more down to bad luck than it is. He isn't good at the circuit. Otherwise, his qualifying record would be very good, and we know that it is. I wouldn't be surprised to see either driver come away with a win this weekend, basically.

There is every chance, of course, in Harry's world, a Mexican man in pink could stand on the top spot, considering his predictions. Yeah, Esteban Gutier. wearing a flamingo. Oh yeah, that was it. I forgot he was entering his own team. His aren't planned, folks.

Harry just has full control at the soundboard at the moment. Yes, unfortunately, I've been stripped of control so you can expect this to just descend into absolute chaos. On a side note, I would love to see Esty Goetz in a pink flamingo costume. So if anyone is good at Photoshop, get on it, please, and send it to at Elbreaking.

Or if you're just know him and you're really good at convincing. That too, that too. I think first is more likely. Move on, move on. All right, all right. So, I mean, we all agree that Mercedes are the favourites. We have spoken about who might be their best challenger coming into the start of the season. Red Bull perhaps looking a bit stronger in preseason testing.

Harry, do you think that Red Bull standard challenge here, do you think they need a win, considering Mercedes how well? they started in 2019. It didn't leave Red Bull with enough time. Do you think they need a good result here to sort of take it to Mercedes early? A good result, yes, because, you know, Max finished on the podium last year, but I don't think they need a win per se, but if they're closer than they were this time last year, because last year in Australia, you know, Bottas and Hamilton were just miles ahead. Well, Bottas was certainly miles ahead. I just think the Red Bull needs to be show that it's got the pace to keep up with at least at this point.

Ideally, you want to be fast, of course, but looking forward to the rest of the season, I think if Vestappen is on a level with Hamilton and Bottas in Oz, then I think they can have a good year. Because that's been their problem for the past few years. They've not started the season, man, and they've developed into it. Yeah, last year was better with Vastappen on the podium, but yeah, definitely they need to be on the pace with Mercedes. from the first minute of FP1, I'd say.

So if, say, Vestappen finishes the race third, Albon finishes 4.5th, do you take that? Do you accept that if you're Red Bull? Yeah, like I said, as long as they're on the pace, I'm not saying Albon will be on the same pace as Vestappen, but even if he needs to show good pace too, but yeah, you take that. I mean, they'll obviously take a 1-2 over that,

But just, you know, in the context of the season, in a normal race condition, I think they'll be, they should be happy with that. Sam, do you think that Red Bull need a win early on? I think it would be fantastic for one of the fans, the viewership would go through the roof if suddenly out of nowhere, for the first time in a long time, Red Bull come out, come out, the door's absolutely blazing, you know? They take it from the Sesegis. Mosegis have always been on that front line regardless of who's actually taken the wing. But if we get to Melbourne, we get to Sunday, and all of a sudden,

the Staffan wings and Albin's third, and I don't know, they'd sandwich Hamilton between them, then, I mean, what a start for the Red Bull team and what a start to a championship fight we can have? I generally think that if we see the Stauffin get second, I think that's what they need. I think the Scapping's second, maybe Album fourth, with Hamilton and Bottas either side.

I really think that Ferrari will be off the pace in comparison to these two teams, so I don't think they're going to be fighting for that podium. So, yeah, I think as long as either for Stafford is absolutely hounding Hamilton the whole way through or vice versa, then we're going to have an absolutely cracking start to the championship, and hopefully it bodes for very exciting things to come. So I think they're getting a top two finish. I have to say, I think Mercedes have got a plan as to how they would like this season to go.

And it goes very similar to how it went last year. You know, last year went perfectly for Mercedes in that they, you know, had that string of one-toes at the beginning of the season. Ferrari and Red Bull came back strong in the second half of the year, but I think everyone was fully aware that it was far too late, Mercedes could focus on 2020, pretty much from the summer break, if not before that. Mercedes ideal plan is for exactly the same thing to happen again, and obviously that's even more important this year

because it's not only developing a car for a next season, it's developing a car for a new era of Formula One. So how well they develop their 2021 car is probably going to have a big effect on how well they do in the first sort of three or four years in this new era. So it's massive for Mercedes if they can replicate the success they had in 2019. And that's why I think it's so important that Red Bull get off the mark quickly and take the challenge to Mercedes, maybe not necessarily Australia, but definitely one of the first two or three races. I think they need to take a race win.

And I think, like you have rightly said, I think they need to be on the pace straight away. If you think Red Bull, Red Bull have been known for developing a car very well during the season. I mean, they just haven't had the car that's good enough to start the season. You know, with the amount of wins that they've taken at Brazil, they're typically very strong at the likes of Singapore. Mexico, they're very strong there, these races towards the end of the year. If they can find that form at the beginning of the year, then Mercedes are in something of a quandary because, say, the points are level or even near level halfway through the season, then suddenly Mercedes can't take their foot off the gas. They have to keep going with the 2020 season,

which could derail their progress for future seasons. So I think it's really important that probably Vastappen, but either Red Bull, it wins maybe Bahrain or Australia. And I think, you know, the situation where Vestappen finishes second with the Mercedes either side, I think that would be a fine result for Australia. They just need to show that they're there. Well, that was actually a healthy debate.

and Harry managed to keep his hand off the soundwall for the majority of it. Here we go. You're welcome. I was just expecting something. There's one that I'm waiting for. Hey! The drums!

The crowd! They're calling for it. The people want it. I love the drums. Everyone loves the drums. Moving on to Ferrari. Of course, we have focused on Mercedes and Red Bull so far. Perhaps Red Bull

being Mercedes greatest challenges at the beginning of the year. I don't think we should completely discount Ferrari, but they have run into some difficulties in preseason testing. There is talk that maybe there are some issues there. Do you think that they sort of need a really good race here in Melbourne? Because to just really shut up some of the critics like us, Sam. Well, I am going to entirely discount them. But now sell, 199, 199 at your local store, Ferrari on sale.

discount. Get it? Wow, that's a good discount. I'll take that. Yeah, $199 million. Anyway, I actually think that for a desperately a solid result, do I think they're going to get one? Well, maybe you have to wait and see until my predictions coming up.

But for any top team, a strong result in the first race is incredible promising. It boosts morale. We saw how the morale, if you've watched Drive to Survive, you'll see how good for Stanger gets so excited by that incredible performance in Melbourne. You know, you think, yes, we're doing well with the top of the midfield we're pushing and then, you know, watching that morale fall is devastating. Do I think that can happen for Ferrari? I think they might not even get off to a great start.

I think that they are going to be hit by so many issues. We know what's going on in Italy at the moment with COVID-19. It's devastating. It's really sad. It's horrible to see. And out of all F-1 teams, they are probably the most affected. I think this is going to be a real struggle. If they could get themselves into a top three or four position, to me, that's a success.

They've done a great job. They can take that and move on and still be in the running. but if they have a real torrid time, if they're passing up to scratch, if they've got team members who are crucial who are struggling due to health, which is obviously horrible, I really think that they're getting a struggle

to bounce back if both Red Bull and Mercedes are able to really get on that high horse and push as, you know, as heavy as we've seen Mercedes do in the first place. If Red Bull are up to the same standard as Mercedes are from race one, which I think is highly possible, I don't know what Ferrari are really going to be able to do

from here and out. So for their sake, for their team for the morale, I hope they could get something together, but being realistic, I'm not so sure. Oh, interesting, Sir Sam, doubting the performance of Ferrari going into the first race of the season. Harry, are you also doubting what they might be able to produce? I think, despite coronavirus, the guys of Maranello have been to the beach and they've dug up a load of sand and they've chucked it on to the front of their car. and they've just been soundbagging for the whole of testing. I don't think they're going to be quick enough to challenge for a win,

but they showed some glimpses of really good race pace in testing, and I just refused to believe that they would drop off quite that badly. Yeah, like I said, I don't think they're going to win, but they at least need to be there or thereabouts to think they're going to, you know, to think they're going to at least have a shot of challenging this year. Yeah, but I don't think it's a dire situation. But like Sam says, going forward, I think going forward from now with the whole situation in Italy, then it could get more challenging as they go to Bahrain and to, well, potentially Vietnam, I guess.

Because some Ferrari members have been stuck out in Barcelona since the end of testing, not able to go home because they wouldn't be allowed back out again. So, yeah, it's going to hit them. for sure. But, you know, they've been in the game long enough. I think they'll be okay. Yeah. So I think Ferrari, they could be in a bit of trouble. I don't think they're going to be in massive trouble. I don't think they are as slow as what the testing times did show. I don't think they didn't really dazzle in terms of one lap pace. I think they were a bit more competitive on the longer runs, as you say, Harry. And I personally can't see them any worse off than the

the third best team. But that doesn't necessarily mean they'll be up there with Mercedes and Red Bull. And I do think they will be a touch behind those two teams, which will be worrying for them. Melbourne itself can be a difficult barometer when it comes to how quick you are. We've seen many times. I mean, even last season, you think Mercedes absolutely crushed it in Melbourne. They turn up to Bahrain and Shahler should have won that race. So if they had just taken Melbourne, as this is.

how quick we are, then, you know, that we, that have been, it wasn't a good judge at all, you know, once they got to Bahrain, we found out that they were at least more competitive than what they've shown in Melbourne. So I think it will be a similar case this year. They'll look at the first few races rather than the first one, just the first race. And then maybe they can decide from there what they do. There has been speculation that if the car isn't quite up standard, they might, I don't always say abandoned, but they might prioritize the next era of Formula One, which could very well work

if, you know, Red Bull and Mercedes get into some sort of a title scrap. That could really help Ferrari as the third best team going forward. But I think it might be a bit early, a bit premature to say that kind of thing and predict that it will happen. But it's at least an avenue that they could go down. It's all hypothetical at this moment. You know, you would like to see them. The Italian media media is just relentless. So it would be good for their sake to, at least shut them up and deliver a decent performance. I think like last year, though, they might struggle to get anywhere near the top two places.

I mean, looking a bit more deeply into Ferrari and looking at the drivers, of course, Charles LeClaire beat Sebastian Vetter last season. There's still a question, is there a number one driver? If so, who's it going to be? Sam, do you think a win or at least a win over their teammate for either of these drivers? Do you think that will help their case going forward as the driver that they should prioritize? I really don't think. I know Ferrari liked, they've always had this mentality that one driver is a number one and then the other is a wingman,

especially in the Schumi Barakello days. You know, we became very accustomed to regardless of how what Barakello was doing, if Schumacher was behind and it could give Schumacher the wing, Markella, you hold up, you allow it through. We've heard the calls, you know, Massa, Felipe, baby. Fernando is faster than you. Again, at Melbourne, that happens. So I think this is a bit different.

They've got a four-time World Champion. They've got the possible greatest thing in Formula One since Lewis Hamilton sat there in their team. That's a really tough mix-up you've got, you know. It's not like Fernando also had four or five world titles when Hamilton joined in. I don't think they can make a decision so early on after one race. They tried to last year, when that was LeCleur's first ever racing a Ferrari.

They didn't let LeCler pass better, even though LeCler definitely had the speed on his teammate. I think it gives you a morale boost. I think it makes you feel better. I think it gives you a bit of a kick to go into next race. Don't get me wrong. But I don't think Ferrari going to look to pick one or the other going into Bahrain just yet. I still think they have a bit of a soft spot for Vettel, regardless of how well LeCle is doing.

He is that senior driver. He is the German and a red car, which we all love to see. So I think they've still got that loyalty to him. But don't get me wrong. They know how good Lecler is. And that's why I don't think they're picking one of the other. there's too much to lose with either if you pee one off too early. So I reckon give it four or five races.

If there's a clear leader, then yeah, I think we see it in true Ferrari style. But for now, I don't think they'll pick. All right. Harry, we saw some team orders employed at Australia last year with Leclair being told to stay behind Vessel. Do you think that a performance from either of those guys that comfortably beats the other? Do you think that determines how team orders might be played throughout the year? quite possibly because if we look at the start of last year as you say Vettel got the

sorry LeCler got the call to stick behind Vetter in Australia and then LeClaire turned out to be the faster driver even from Bahrain onwards so it was clear for Ferrari that they couldn't back Vetter as their number one for the rest of the year but I think they've come out again and said they're going to back Vettel for the number one driver so I would assume that if Lecler is quicker again, then they're going to have to go with LeCler.

You can't keep backing the person who's not quick enough. But that being said, I think Vettel's going to be on the pace more this year anyway. I foresee another coming together with the pair of them. I just think that's going to happen. They're so evenly matched, and it's going to get personal for Vettel. LeCler wants to prove he's the next champion,

champion of the future, I can just see those two coming to blows again. So I'm going to be a fascinating one. They need to work together because they need to get Ferrari back on top, but at the same time, they've both got a point to prove individually. I mean, theoretically, you think going into last season, you had the situation where it was a four-time world champion who has a dozen years of experience in Formula One, five of which were at Ferrari,

going up against the guy who had less than 25 race starts and was literally racing for a winning car or a car that could potentially win for the very first time and it ended up being the latter and the two that won. So, if you think about the development of Lecler, that should continue this season, he should only get better. So Vettel not only has to up his game in order to match where Leclair was last season,

because Leclair did narrowly beat him, he's probably going to have to up his game even more again. I could foresee, obviously, it's two different situations in that Leclair is signed long term. Vettel might well end up being a Ferrari next year, but we don't know yet. His contract runs out at the end of this year. I think if a situation developed where Vettel was the better driver this year and LeClair was forced to play a number two role, I think he probably would. I don't think he'd like it, but I think he would play ball just because he knows that there's

going to be a chance of winning championships in future years. If he has got no chance himself, I don't think he's going to have any problems helping out Vettel to do so. I think what will be interesting is if it ends up being the other way around and they do end up prioritizing Leclair and they decide that maybe Vettel, they don't have the confidence in Vettel. What happens then? Because I don't think it's in Vettel's DNA to be a second driver. I just don't see it happen. We've seen it happen with plenty of good drivers. You know, Mark Weber, Rubens, Marichello, you've already referenced. You know, Felipe Massa.

These guys have all merged themselves out. I've all sort of morphed into this second driver role. They've played it. And there's definitely advantages to doing it. But I just don't think Vettel has that mentality. I think he's got too much pride and too much love for racing to be in that position where, yeah, I don't see it happening. So I think that will be very interesting.

I think the performances early will determine it. I think it is an open play for it, even if Ferrari say they're going to bat better. You know, it's a cut-frope business. If Leclair is performing better, I think they do side with him eventually. But I think it's one of the more interesting storylines, if not the most interesting storyline,

heading into the season. It'd be fascinating how that plays out. Do you know what, guys? It's been about, what, five months, four, five months. I think it's time for some bowl predictions. Oh, let me get the race around. The hair's coming off. Yes.

Come on. Hugged for bold predictions. I mean, first bold predictions in a long time. If you're not aware, it's a very simple concept. We give our bold predictions. We used to have a bold omitator

that kind of rated from Chewbacca to Bruce Willis as to how bold you actually were. We don't have that anymore. But we still do predict bold things happening at race week. I hope you haven't thrown that away. No, is it somewhere? I think. That is late breaking, you know, folklore.

When there's a museum for some reason about us, that's what will be in there is the opening. No, don't I haven't thrown it away. I haven't thrown it away. I put a lot of effort into making that. It's a beautiful design, a beautiful design. To me at least 20 minutes. It's only thing he's ever put effort into.

I know. I know. Anyway, haven't thrown it away, but obviously, can't really use it with just audio here. Sam, what is your first bold prediction of 2020? My gosh, the first bold prediction of a whole decade. Well, um... Big pressure. I mean, Harry fails this every single time. I'm still going to try to be a little bit bald, so I'm still getting to have a rather receding hairline. But I don't think I'm going full brucey for the first one. I think that there won't be a Ferrari in the top seven come the final result out on Sunday. Follow up question. Why won't they be in the top seven?

Retirement or lack of pace? A combination of the two. I think that, I mean, I'm not putting this in my bold prediction, but this is just what I think. I think that there could be a bit of a failure one of the cars. I don't think they've had the time to work on insurance that reliability is tipped up. And I wouldn't be surprised if we have maybe a Sebastian medal who will be. gets a little frustrated behind one of the other cars. Maybe he's felt with the car being a little slow,

goes for a rash move and takes himself out of the race. That wouldn't shock me. But yeah, I don't think there'll be a Ferrari in the top seven. That is a bold start to the decade. I knew you would let me down, Tom. Thank you. Thanks, everyone. Thanks, Bill.

A round of applause. So, Harry, I mean, it's a tough act to follow, but what's your bold prediction? My bold prediction for Melbourne 2020 And I've already mentioned You know Odd things happen at the first race But I believe that

The third spot on the podium Will be occupied by Sergio Perez Oh you mean there's going to be a Mexican on the podium Sam, you're baiting me for this sound affair And I'm not going to do it Ladies and gentlemen, Harry has found a sound effect, which is possibly my favourite sound effect of all time. But it's a little risque.

Avocados from Mexico. There is. Avocados from Mexico. I've got no words. That's the new feature, folks. When we do the bold predictions, that's what you're going to hear. Well, we'll see about that. I mean

Sergio Perez That's equally as bold I know you have Sergio Perez Doing very well this season Harry and you've got racing point as a whole Doing very well But yeah Good pace

Good pace Starting well Yeah well exactly So I mean I don't think my prediction's unbolded But by comparison it might be Here we go I'm curious now

So my bold prediction also relates to the top seven. However, it's drivers who will finish inside the top seven rather than outside of it. As we all know, the Hascar actually runs on Fosters and dead wallabies. Like, we know that. Where does that come from?

It doesn't matter if they drive around a lawnmower, they will always be good in Australia. They might as well be an Australian team. We saw last year they were absolutely terrible, everywhere, but Australia, they were apparently a top three team. I've got Kevin Magnuson and Roman Grosjean finishing in the top seven. Oh my God. That is, that is, that's still pretty bold, Ben.

Yeah, I'm pretty bold. A recent form. I've got them finishing the season pretty much last. Yeah, even if they could in the past, they always do well in Australia. It's the, it's the law. To be fair, I only remember that the other day when I was watching Drive to survive was how well Grosjean was going in in Australia it was he was immense yeah he was he was actually superb i think he's actually been in like the top five or six pretty much every year for

the last four years or at least i not finished that but he's been in those positions so yeah we'll just have to see if has can remember how to do pit stops i guess but that's my call one Harry, who've you got for poll one, two, three, hazmat? Hasmat, nice. Pole position is going to be Lewis Hamilton again, because he always seems to get pole position in Melbourne. First place is going to be Maxie Verstap, second, Lewis Hamilton, third, Sergio Perez, obviously.

I'm liking your race. It's a great race. Max Verstappen winning and Sergio Perez on the podium. Guys, late breaking is back for 2020. Boy, oy. Sam, who have you got for Pole 1, 2, 3? No Ferrari's involved, I understand. Proposition for Hamilton.

It's hard not to sing along to it. It's so catchy. Avocados from Mexico. I might get T-shirts, fringed. Anyway, Lewis, Hamer. Hamilton will get pole. I think Hamilton will win. I think that the Stappen will be P2 with Albon P3.

Oh. I like it. I like it. I am also going for a Lewis Hamilton pole position, so no change there. But I have then got version 2.83 squared cube divided by four, Valtrey Botas finishing in first place. Lewis Hamilton from pole position will then finish second Mercedes 1-2, cue the meme that everyone uses

and then Max Verstappen in third so I think I've got the most boring race of the three Oh that means Ben's going to right now Yeah, yeah Yeah, boo Ben, boo. It's good to see we've got some different predictions I think we should call you boojaming hocking from now on You can do, I don't really care

The boo-hawk Again, don't really care. Oh, he's so hard, folks. I just don't care, mate. I just don't care. Why is there a pig? All right, I am moving this ship along. We're going to be talking Ocombe Ricardo next.

Of course, Esteban Ocon got into a bit of a... She was there, kerfuffle with Sergio Perez. The relationship wasn't quite as strong as it could, have been between those two back in their force India days. And Daniel Ricardo, of course, he had his running to Max for Stappen. So you've got two teammates who have had run-ins with their ex-teammates, now altogether. Harry, do you think Ockon and Ricardo, do you think that's something that could implode in 2020? Absolutely.

Yeah, of course it could. I don't know, maybe not in 2020. It might last, it might, you know, go the distance of 2020. but I still think they're going to come to blows at some point and not because I don't think it'll be the same passionate hatred for each other that Ockon and Perez had and I think it'll be more like a Vastappan-Ricado rivalry because I think they're going to be pretty evenly matched. I think Ricardo's going to have a harder time from Ockon that he did from Hulk.

Yeah, it's going to be with the Vettel-Lacler battle, I think that's going to be one of the most fascinating things to watch this year because Auckland's had a year out, got a point to prove Renault. Well, yeah, Reno need to improve anyway. But Ricardo, he needs to improve on what wasn't a fantastic 2019 for him, and not all his fault, but still not a great year, personally, I don't think. So, yeah, I think there's every chance those two could have run into each other at some point, just because I think they'll be on the same parts of the road at the same time

because they're going to be so evenly matched. interesting stuff sam what about you what do you say on the matter i reckon there's a stick of dynamite between those two and the fuse is rapidly heading towards explosion town um yeah i think that there could be absolute pandemonium between those two got a word you hear often actually that just sprung to mind wasn't planned um honestly ricardo when he gets the bit between his teeth he is an aggressive selfish driver. I think he's got the makings of a world champion in him. I think he's been a little bit unlucky and maybe

badly timed where his career is sat. And I think Ocon is almost the same. I think I really like O'Con, but I get the feeling he's a little bit like, I definitely deserve to be here more than you. Almost every driver he sits beside. He's got that Mercedes backing. He's been around champions for a long time.

He's got Toto as his manager. So I think they're such strong personalities, regards of how lighthearted Ricardo and what we've seen from Ocon can be, I really think that when it comes to a heated moment, neither of them would back down. I wouldn't be surprised if we see contact between those two. I want to see contact between those two because that would be a rivalry. I'd love to watch.

Harry's really mentioned that Betel LeCleur should be really exciting, but I think that could also be a tip-top battle. So, yeah, I definitely think it can happen. I think they're all fun on the surface, but they are true competitors at heart, the pair of them. And I think Ocon wants to make it his team. team and Ricardo what's going to show that he's good enough for a top car drive next season or that Reno is his team to turn into whatever he wants it to be. So yeah, I definitely think

some blows can happen. I actually think they'll be all right. I don't actually think they will come to blows. And it's actually for similar reasons to Harry weirdly in that Harry, you think that they will come to blows because you think it will be fairly close on circuit. I actually think they won't come to blows because I don't think they're going to be close on circuit very often. I actually think Ricardo is going to beat Ocon more comfortably than Ricardo be Holcomberg. I like Ocon. I think he's a good driver. I think he deserves to be in Formula One.

However, I don't think he's of the same class of driver as Daniel Ricardo, quite simply. Daniel Ricardo generally, I think he gets on well with most drivers. Of course, the relationship with him and Max wasn't always perfect, but I feel that was actually more of a Ricardo against Red Bulls treatment of Vastappan rather than Vastappan himself for the most part. Of course, Ocon did have his run into Perez. The two of those just didn't match. Like personality-wise, that was just doomed from the very beginning.

Yeah, I actually think they're going to be okay. It could, the only way I could see it perhaps going pear-shaped is if Ricardo commits elsewhere for 2021, say halfway through the season. And Renaud decide that, okay, we're going to have to give Ocon priority. He's the guy that's going to keep being here from next year onwards. So maybe that could lead to a few interesting situations. But without that, I actually think they'll be okay. And I think they'll get through the season all right.

That's lovely, Ben. I'm glad to see you think people will get on. Yeah. Ben? Yeah, go on. Have you made a game for us to play? Yeah. Oh, it's a good start to the year, really?

Folks, we've got a game. Yep, that's the theme song of this game because we don't have any sound effects. Yeah, I've got a game for us to play, and it's cool. Would you like a proper intro? Yeah, go on then. Off he go, son. This is Bill Hill in the blank.

or just fill in the mic. It's so jazzy. It's a working title. It's actually a really simple game in that I'm going to say a few sentences, and you've just got to fill it in with what you think is going to happen, or what you'll understand when we get to the first one. So the first sentence, Harry, I'll start you. At the start of the 2021 season, Vetter will be racing for blank.

Red Bull. Why? Because I said so. That's not how things work. I think he's going to go back to his roots. I think Red Bull, they're struggling slightly with their young driver program, and Vettel's going to go up to his old mate,

helmet and Christian, and go, all right, lads, plus can I drive for you next year? Because I know how good Adrian Newey is it, designing cars when there's a regular. relation change a la 2009. So, yeah, it's going to be there. Interesting. Sam, same question.

At the start of the 2021 season, Vettel will be racing for Blank. Ferrari, sorry, it's really boring, but I just, I think, I don't think Ferrari get rid of Vettel. I think Vettel chooses to leave Ferrari, and I think he, unless he wins a title, I don't think he's going anywhere. And I don't think Ferrari are kicking him out until maybe he's, you know, 34, 35 as old as what Kimmy was, maybe. He's still good enough. I mean, even if he's the clear number one driver. Sebastian Vessel is a four-time champion.

He's going to be your second driver. That's a great option to have, even with the talent on the grid. So, yeah, he's still going to be at Ferrari. As much as I love to be as crazy as possible, he's still going to be in that Maranello Reg Ferrari. So you do think it will be a one-year contract and he'll see how it goes. at the end of that? Or how do you see that playing out? I wouldn't be surprised

to give him a two-year deal with the option to leave in a certain clause if they don't hit X position or something like that. Okay. Well, we've got three different answers for this question

because I think at the start of the 2021 season, Vetter will be racing for no one. I actually don't think he'll be an F1 at the beginning of 2021. I think he will move on from Ferrari.

He will have a look at what's around, see, I think he'll have a few offers from teams. I think he'll actually decline them all. I think he'll take a year out and then look at his options again at the beginning of 2020.

Interesting. He'll be racing his armchair then. I was almost bold enough to say he'll go over to Indy car and race, but I don't think. Oh my God, that would be absolute scenes. I reckon I'd go to DTM. I see.

I'm not sure if DTN. If DTM is, is it high profile enough for him? I don't think he cares. I think he cares about, I think he loves racing. Yeah, and he's not a high profile person, is he? Not generally. I generally think he thinks if it's good racing and he's got a chance of being the best at it,

I reckon he go race fee at 500s around my local park. I reckon he could take Kimmy with him. Yeah, what, just in his, just holding his hand. I just do it for a hobby. Come on, Kimmy. Yeah, imagine what Kimmy thinks DTM is if he thinks F-1's a hobby. DTM?

Down to make, I don't know, I've got nothing. Fantastic. Okay, on to the second one. In the 2020 season, Albon will score blank podiums. Harry, what are you filling that blank in with? Five. Five.

Yeah. Really? Yep. You have 21 races for crying out of that. I know, but I... Still, I mean... I know Brazil. They could be all...

They can be all thirds. I'm not saying he's going to win. Yeah. Might win. Interesting. Five podiums, according to Harry. Sam, how many have you got him again? Well, I think six.

Oh, my Lord. I generally think the fight between Red Bull and the Sengis is going to be close. And I think Albuhrs good enough. I generally think he's good enough to keep that seat. I don't think he's the Staple level. But as we've always said, he doesn't need to be the Staple. He just needs to be consistently scoring close points of the Staping. Because there's two titles to win.

That number two driving is he'll be delivering enough for that constructors. I think this is the year he possibly shows he could do that. So yeah, I think six different podiums for Album. I mean, Sammy, you've got Albin scoring a podium in the first race of the season. So I guess this question is more for Harry. Do you think he'll start scoring those podiums early on in the year? No, I think he's going to get one or two, maybe in the first half. They'll come in the latter end of the year. Interesting. I apparently don't have any confidence in Albin at all, because I've gone for the lowest amount. I think he'll get three

podiums throughout the year. I agree. I think two of them will come late in the season. I've got him picking up one in the middle of the season. It might come down. It might come down. to how good Ferrari is. If Red Bull are definitely the second best team, then I mean, you've only got four drivers. You're going to finish in the top three a few times. So if Ferrari aren't there, then maybe it is more than three.

But yeah, that's what I'm going for on that one. And the final one for this brand new game that we've brought to late breaking, Vastapen needs to be blank to win the championship this season. Sam? I don't understand the question. Is it like a personality trait?

Does Vastapa need to be ruthless? Does Vastapa need to be wet? Vastapen needs to... Okay, all right. So I'll explain my double entendre, folks. Half of it was indeed a bad joke in the dirty fashion. The other half is the fact that that that man is bloody brilliant in the rain.

And if there's a lot more wet racing this season, I think he outclasses a lot more of the field, even more so than he has. I think only Hamilton keeps up, and that doesn't mean Hamilton's perfect in the rain. So I think that we need to have a more wet than average season for Verstappen to be champion. But if we're going to go in the context of that sentence,

you need Verstappen to walk out of his hotel on each Sunday morning and be soggy. I want him to take one step out and immediately be drenched. Okay, good. Excellent. All right. Get the point, though.

Get the point. Harry, Vastapa needs to be blank to win the championship this season. He needs to be more mature. And I know he has matured, like a fine cheddar. But we still saw a couple of glimpses, you know, sometimes on the radio,

or the one that springs to mind for me is spa last year. year where he punted poor old Kimmy at turn one and then proceeded to drive into O'Rouge with only one wheel that could turn. So yeah, there's still some elements, which is, you know, he's still pretty young. But to be champion, he needs to eliminate all of them. He needs to be completely mature. I think Vastapa needs to be accommodating to win the championship this season.

And while I say that, I mean that we saw situations last year where Pierre Gazley was not close enough to be a factor in races. And it costs Max for Stappan. I think the one that springs to mind immediately is Hungary. You know, if Gassley was further ahead compared to where he was, then Hamilton can't pull off the strategy that he did in order to take the race win. And I just think that Mastappen needs to understand that whilst he can be the number one driver, he can't be the absolutely. only attention of the team and the team can't completely focus on him and not Albin because he will need Albin to be in certain situations

to pull off strategies. And I think having a better teammate will really help him, which I don't think Albin's going to beat the Stapp and I don't think Albin's going to be a championship challenger. But just for those situations like Hungary, I think he needs to be accommodating. I think he needs to not share everything he knows and tell Albin everything there is to know about

Red Bull, but just to be a bit more accommodating and know that there's nothing wrong in having a strong number two driver in the situation that he's in. I thought for a minute there, you were going to suggest that he should open up some Airbnb's. Well, I'm not saying he shouldn't. Anything for a bit of a problem. It's so delayed. I wasn't sure whether to play it or not, but I thought, you know what?

Why not? We've not had enough trouble. If you're going to be in charge of the sound world, you've just got to be more ruthless with it. It's a great responsibility. There you go. Thank you. Wow. I mean, can...

Yeah, go on, Ben. No, I'm going to... Can I share... Oh, for goodness sake! Can I share a statistic I saw on Twitter today? Yes. It's not mine, obviously. but 2019 was the first season since 1985

that a Menardi or former Monardi driver was not on the grid. I actually knew what statistic you were going to say before you said it. You're a step, man. How cool is that, though? Yeah, it's very cool, but... Yeah. Utterly used to... It's been mad, isn't it?

Because Alonzo was the last, the sole remaining Menardi boy. Anyway, there you go, folks. I hope you've all been educated in that final. If anyone would like to do a cover of Kanye West American Boy, but the lyrics being Menardi Boy, I will 100% listen and promote that record. Of course, it is going to be good news, though. Patrick Freezacker will be returning to the F-Longer next year,

so that streak will end very soon. Don't tease me like that, Ben. Go on. Robert Dornboss. Don't Durn boss. Go on. Robert Dornobbs. I can't think of a better way to end this podcast than on Robert Dornobs, really. But Sam, do you want to get us out of here?

Folks, thank you so much for joining us for the preview of the first race of the decade. We are so excited. And, of course, we will be right back straight after the race with our reaction. So make sure you're on the YouTube, you're on podcast, get ready to watching. Of course, the merch giveaway is now live on our Twitter.

That is at Lbreaking. Link is down below. make sure to retweet, follow us and comment your F1 buddy. We look forward to seeing you there, join in the conversation. Get below, give us your predictions. We are buzzing to hear them. In the meantime, I've been Samuel Sage. I've been Ben Hocking.

And I've been... Avocados from Mexico. Keep breaking late. This podcast is part of the Sports Social Podcast Network.