The Late Braking F1 Podcast - Red Bull promote LAWSON over Tsunoda - the right call? | EMERGENCY PODCAST

Episode Date: December 19, 2024

In the wake of Red Bull announcing Liam Lawson as their second 2025 driver, Ben and Sam are here with a bonus episode discussing whether or not the right person got the call up... They also cover the news that Bottas will be returning to Mercedes as their 2025 reserve driver! Get your friends or family the gift that they truly deserve... gift an LB Patreon membership HERE

This podcast is part of the Sports Social Podcast Network. Thank you for listening to the Late Breaking F1 podcast. Make sure to check out new episodes every Wednesday and every Sunday. Welcome to the late breaking F1 podcast presented by Sam Sage and me, Ben Hocking, on a Thursday. It feels like a roast dinner on a Thursday, a podcast on a Thursday. That's obscene. This is ridiculous, ridiculous. emergency Christmas podcast news.

Are you having a laugh? We're trying to have a bloody roast here on a Sunday and put our feet up the bloody cheek of it. Yeah, we're not going to be here for very long, don't you worry? We won't take up too much of your day. But just one day removed from the news that Sergio Perez will not be racing for Red Bull next season.

Turns out that Liam Lawson will be racing for Red Bull next season. He's been given the nod over Yuki Sonoda. We're going to give our thoughts on that very shortly. Christian Horner, obviously was asked about this. today. Here's what he had to say. It was a very, very tight between the two of them. Yuki is a very fast driver. He's got three or four seasons of experience now. He did a very good job in the tire test for us in Abu Dhabi, where the engineers were impressed with how he performed.

With Liam, when you look and go into the analytics of his race pace, it was slightly better in the races than what Yuki Sunoda was able to do. His qualifying pace was very close with Yuki, and you've got to assume that the potential with Liam is he's only going to get better and stronger. A couple of things have stood out with me for Liam, how versatile he is. You put him into a situation, he gets on with it. If you remember his debut in Zambor after Daniel broke his fingers,

he was racing against Max on his out lap. He did also say, it is great to have you he's still involved with the racing bull scene next year. That's a direct quote and I hate it. And of course he's on standby, should he ever be required. I'm going to ask you this straight up, Sam, because Christian Horner did say it was a straight fight between Yuki Sonoda and Liam Lawson.

He's gone with Lawson. Would you have gone with Lawson? Straight answer. No, I'm going Sonoda. Ben, Lawson, Sonoda. Who would you have gone for? Same as you. Yuki Sanoda was to play.

I'll explain why in a little bit. But I think given the experience difference between them, this was a play, this was an opportunity to get Sonoda in that seat. And I am somewhat surprised that he's been overlooked again, based on how he's performed against teammates in the last 18 months or so. But hey, they apparently see something special in Liam Lawson. Christian Horner's comments are pretty evident of that. I'm surprised, but yeah, I'm with you.

I'd have gone Sonoda. Yeah, I think for me, Sonola since Gisley left the team and he started to come against other teammates, has essentially been the yardstick, the measuring device for Red Bull to know who's good and who isn't. DeVries comes in, Senegal beats him. Ricardo comes in, Senaga beats him. Lawson comes in for a first time.

Senaga beats him, Ricardo comes in backing. Sanoga beats him. Lawson comes in the second time. Sengoga beats him. So Senegal is acting as this yardstick for Red Bull's measuring of who is and who isn't a good enough driver. But Sago is almost seemingly to have to go up against an unknown goal at the end of the tunnel.

It's like, you know, oh yeah, can you run to the end of the tunnel for me, but the tunnel just keeps getting longer and longer and longer and longer. You can't ever get to the end of it. And that's how it feels for Sonoda. He's unable to achieve the goals set for him by Red Bull, because there aren't any.

Despite how well he's doing against so many very, very talented drivers, he never seems to be given this opportunity. Now, I won't make clear that this is not a diss at Liam Lawson. Liam Lawson is an incredibly talented driver. He did fantastic well of DTM. He did fantastic well as Super Formula. He has shown fantastic versatility when coming into Red Bull,

the Red Bull Tribe program, of course, in the junior program. And the first time around, his performance in Zambo, especially, what's phenomenal. He really was throwing in in the deep end, and he swam comfortably. But I just don't know what Yuki Senoda needs could do. And I'm sure Yuki has got to be looking anywhere he can for an exit now, because why would you commit any longevity,

any more time in your career to a team that, see you was simply a, like I said, a measuring stick, a yardstick of if anyone else is actually decent. What would it take for Yuki Sanoa to actually get the step up, the leg up into that junior, into the senior team rather, and to actually get the chance at race wings, at doing well. I don't think they've got any intentions to ever put him in that team now. It seems that the style that Lawson presents is what they want. And that's fine, but it's very disappointing for Yuki Sanooga, who has dedicated so much time to that Red Bull family. Throughout the course of today, this was announced

early morning here UK time. So we've had an opportunity to see the fallout of this decision, where people are landing on it. And I've seen a lot of people tiptoe around this one, suggesting that maybe Red Bull got it wrong and that it should have been Yuki Sonoda. I ain't going to tiptoe around this. I think it was an awful decision by Red Bull.

I think it was an awful decision. And that's not against Liam Lawson. That's just based on the logic of putting Sonoda in that seat because at what point do you just have to do something with Yuki Sanoda? Like you either have to give him a shot or let him go. This was the perfect opportunity to just give it a trial. Why have you kept him in that seat for so many years to be presented with a golden opportunity to let him show you what he can do to then pass him over? Liam Lawson wasn't going anywhere. Lawson could have had a full season in that junior program and they've declined that. I said

it earlier a couple of months ago as part of a discussion that putting Yuki Sanoda in the seat for 2025 does give you options going into 2026 because if Yuki Sanoda does a great job, then suddenly, okay, that's probably the best case scenario. You don't have to do anything. You can just keep with Sonoda and that's a great lineup. If he doesn't live up to your expectations, then you've got the option of either Lawson or Hajjar, depending on who impresses more next season in that junior program or worst case scenario, all three of them don't live up to your expectations, at which point you look elsewhere. But at least going into 2026, you would have these different options. I don't see it. Lawson is going into, you know, Lawson's going into next

season. And if he doesn't do very well, and that remains to be seen, it's been a tough gig being Vastappen's teammate, then what happens? They've clearly, they're clearly not sold on Sonoda, so they're not going to promote him at this point. What do you do with Lawson? Do you keep going? Do you put him back to the junior program? I just, I don't think this is the way it should have been handled. And again, it's more, it's not really on Lawson. I think given he's only had 11 race starts, he's done a good job. But the point is, he's had 11 race starts. Yeah, Lawson is almost, you know, non-culpable in this situation. He could put his hands up and gone, I was just doing the best that I could. I was new to the sport, I'm doing what I can. It's not really on me that I've been picked by Red Bull here.

It's Red Bull making another rash decision where they've tried to go risky. They've tried to pull something out of the bag to impress people. And they haven't learned from their mistakes. They got rid of Albon too quickly. They got rid of Gassi too quickly. They kept Perez for too long. And how they've jumped a driver that has taken the time to prove themselves. Lawson, I'm sure, will acclimatize. I'm sure he will do a good job. I hope he does a good job. I'm not convinced. Well, we don't know. All I know is he is a very talented young man. I want him to succeed. It's about time that Red Bull

get a driver lineup that can compete on both sides of the garage. He gets the time to do so. And I wish him well. I really do. But it is a shame for Yuki. The interesting question, of course,

is that Red Bull family in terms of their power units are moving to Ford, of course. And a key part of Yuki's contract in line with that Red Bull family is that he was a Honda spec driver. Do you think that's got anything to do with it, Ben? Do you think that maybe he's going to be looking

for a way out with that Aston Martin Mink in a couple of years time? Do you think it's completely irrelevant? I think it's a large part of the reason why he's there to begin with. But equally, if you give him the opportunity to succeed and he stands out as a driver in his own right, I think at that point, the Honda deal does become irrelevant, because at that point, you just have a driver that's good enough to be in the spot. I don't think, I actually, I think they just think that Lawson has got the better potential

of the two, which, fair enough. But I don't think the Honda thing does come into it. I just, Red Bull have failed. Red Bull have utterly failed in their quest. Like, they have massive amount of resources in that they have two whole teams to play with. And you're right, like they got stuck in a situation where after Ricardo left and it all goes back to that point. I know it happened like six years ago, but everything stems from the point of Ricardo leaving. They promote Gasly too early and it doesn't work out. Their answer to promoting someone too early is to promote someone else even earlier in Alex Albin. Albin had only done

12 races before he was put in the Red Bull seat. That doesn't work. They then go out and get Sergio Perez as an outside hire, which I understood at that point. But surely as soon as you sign Sergio Perez, nearly four years ago to the day, at that point, you're thinking of your succession plan. Like, we had to do something that as a team, we don't like to do. We had to go outside of our program to find someone. That is an indictment of what we've done or not done. That is a failure on us. At that point, it should have been building the next star.

And yet, four years down the line, what have we got? The same situation. Lawson's done 11 races in RB and he's being promoted. It's the same situation as Alex Albin entirely. Four years. There's no progress. I think the same could be shown that it reflects in almost the exact same pattern in the junior team as well. The fact that that's meant to be their building block,

and you talk about how Ricardo left, and you had that series of step up. Falsasi, of course, goes back to Alpha Tauri at the time. He leaves Alpha Tauri for Alpine. What's their solution? They haven't got a young driver ready to promote. They haven't got something within their program to look to. So they fail on that progress.

They go outside. They pick Nick DeVries of all people who had one positive experience. One. That is the tie. If any scientific experiment happened and you had one moment of data to analyze, you would go, this isn't viable. We can't really extract anything positive or negative out of this. You need more data to understand.

Is it an outlier? Is it a variable? Is this the consistent data? You don't know. And it was proven that that one moment of positive was completely the outlier, completely wrong. And they fail. So they have to get rid of Nick DeVries. Who will they bring back?

The driver they essentially lost four or five years ago at that point. And then that doesn't work out. And then you can see that beats them all continually. And our loss, as you've mentioned, has been promoted arguably too soon. Again, as I've said it, I really hope he to. defies the Red Bull pattern. I really hope he gets into that car, and he is immediately up there with the rivals that Red Bull have,

and he is successful, because there's no one I want to, I don't want to see anyone struggle through that Red Bull program, because there have been a lot of broken drivers that have taken years to recover, they've had their confidence ruined, and they're talented. Look at Gasly, look at Albon,

look at Sang Oda now. They are very talented drivers. If Lawson doesn't thrive almost immediately, By that summer break, I would argue, there's a chance that he could be crushed by that system and he's just another one, another page in the book of Red Bull failures. And then where do they go? Do they promote Hajar? Because they're not going to promote Samoa. Why would he even take it?

Why would he even trust that family at this point? They have shot themselves in the foot because they've gone with an option that realistically doesn't make sense based on their own development program. And I'm so happy to be wrong on this, by the way. I would encourage you in 12 months time, if Lawson does a great job, please come back to this clip. come back to this episode and tell me, Ben, you were a moron and you were wrong. Because at that point, it would be a success story for Lawson. And I'm happy to take the L. But I just don't have the confidence that based on the development or lack of development,

Lawson has been able to show at this point. Again, it's not a knock on Lawson. It's a knock on how much time he's been given. And the Nick DeVries point is a very important one because they could have had Lawson instead of DeVries at that point in time. We would be sat here now with Lawson having done two full seasons. 46 races rather than 11, and we would have a far more confident outlook

on whether he's good enough to be in that seat or not. If he had joined at the beginning of last season and he had, let's say, been on a par with Sonoda last year and had been slightly better than him for the full season this year, I would at that point say, yes, Lawson has definitely done enough. I would say the sweet spot for these RB2 Red Bull promotions are somewhere between 18 months and maybe three years at a month, Max in that junior team.

And all we've had to this point is either half a season, like, or an outside hire. We haven't had the natural progression of a driver from that junior program to the main program where the timing has felt right in forever. So again, not a knock on Lawson. It's just they should have put him in the seat way earlier than what they did. What do you think happens to the junior team if Lawson is phenomenal? And they have Max for Staff and Lawson for the next eight. 10 years.

What's the point? They won't promote anyone. There's no space for them. I think you always have to work on the pessimistic, I know, but you have to work on the worst case scenario of either of them could leave at any one point. Even if the reality does end up being something like that,

you never know when a Daniel Ricardo situation might come around. And that again, that's ultimately what's kickstarted all of this is Daniel Ricardo unexpectedly leaving in 2018. and if they knew at that point what was going to happen, they could have worked on a succession plan and we wouldn't be here discussing what has gone wrong for them over the last five years

with that second seat. So I still think, you know, if Lawson does end up being as good as they hope he will be, Hadjahoo would be, and it's not, to be clear, it's not been confirmed at this point that he will be in that second seat alongside Sonoda, but it's highly likely.

He would be a rookie next season, of course. so he would be comfortable in that seat for a couple of years at a minimum. You wouldn't need to rush through anything for him. Sonoda, if then he did leave at the end of next season, you've got the opportunity to put another rookie in for 2026. I've mentioned the name of Arvid Lindblad a few times. I think he is likely to make F1. So you've then got a few years to not necessarily promote someone.

But yeah, I think you at least have to prepare for you won't have a line-up, long-term lineup, just in case it does go wrong. Yeah, fair point. All right, well, folks, this can let us know your thoughts on this, on this move. Are you Yuki? Are you Yolson? Do you think it's fair that Lawson got that call up? Do you think it should have been Yuki and Lawson needs more time? Really interesting to know what your thoughts are on that Red Bull Driver line up right now. Let's switch gears. We've got a few minutes to discuss something else that came out today. I've got no idea what's up with F1 and pre-Christmas news, but that's apparently... The whole year, man. The whole year for news has been crazy. Yeah, we started the year with the massive news that Hamilton was going to Ferrari and we end the year with the equally massive news that Valtry Bottas is going back to Mercedes as reserve driver.

Yeah. I love this news. I love this game. I've got all the time in the world for this news. He looks so happy. He looked genuinely so happy. He's going home. He's going home.

For Mercedes, this has worked out so well. I don't know how they've played. this blinder. Here's what Mercedes have done. They've got rid of a driver who, I'm not going to say they mistreated him because they did keep on giving him contracts, but they never gave him a multi-year deal. He's left for a few years. They've got him back. He is far more, I don't know what the right phrase is, but he is far more brand and sponsorship. He is. He's leveled up in the marketing world. Mr. Marketing's got his hangs on him, basically. He has a bigger marketing asset now than he was a few years ago

because he's really come out of shell in the last couple of years. So they've got that going for them. He's obviously raced for the team before. So as a reserve driver, that's going to be really useful. And you can't, there's a lot of value in having a useful reserve driver. Like if he needed to step back in that car, you could be pretty confident he will do an okay job. It didn't quite end up this way.

But Ferrari and McLaren were very close in the Constructors' Championship. at the end of this year, it would have not necessarily changed the result, but Oliver Berman and what he did at Saudi Arabia did play into it. Like if he completely pooped the bed, they would have been a much bigger outsider going into the Abidabie Grand Prix.

And equally, if he'd done an even better job, that gap would not have been very large going into that race. So reserve, you never know when you need to call on a reserve driver. So, yeah, they play a blind. Botas is arguably now one of the, most marketable people in Formula One. The way he's turned, is kind of his personality around.

Mr. Australia, the mullet, the moustache, you know, getting his bum out, every opportunity he can. Coffee, gin, hockey teams, cycling. The guy does it all at the moment. And if he's not going to be driving a race car, have him doing your tours, have him doing your marketing moments, have him in front of people because everyone wants to meet Mr. Valtry Bottas, including this guy. Honestly, if Kimi Antingelli, you.

is completely terrible, and we get halfway through the season, and he is being, God, awful, is there a better person for half a season to step into that car and pick up the pieces than Valtry Bottas, realistically? I'm not sure, out of all the reasonable options, of course, there's fantasy language, where you might go, well, yeah, all makes for stuff, we're going to see, let's not go happen.

But Valdry Bottas has a reasonable option is probably as good as it bloody gets for your backup choice in a team like the saying he's to step straight back in and do a job. He's a very safe pair of hangs, and he brought them home multiple constructors' titles alongside Lewis Hamilton. He's won multiple races, picked up multiple pole positions over Lewis Hamilton. The guy's got absolute buckets of talent. This is a great pickup from them.

And even if it doesn't work out in terms of Mercedes, having Toto Wolf in your corner is pretty useful when it comes to securing a drive. A name that's already popped up today, Nick DeVries, a large part of that is the, you know, was down to Toto Wolf. and I know he obviously went the other side to Red Bull, but look at what he did for the careers of Esteban Ocon. Again, not necessarily going into a Mercedes seat, but it's useful to have Toto Wolf fighting your battles.

So we'll see what the end result is, but he's keeping in the frame of F1 at least, which might be a positive as seats for 2026, potentially open. Could open that Kagalak door. Maybe. Maybe so. I fully appreciate if you don't believe me at this point, folks, because this is the third consecutive episode where I'm going to say

the next episode is the Elby Awards unless something comes out tomorrow. Until it isn't. Sunday, next episode will be the late breaking awards. Ah, Hamilton's not trying to Ferrari anymore. Imagine. Charlotte Claire is retired for Formula One.

Yeah, I don't know. Some shock news will come out, but we promise the Elbies are coming. We might fit in another five episodes before Sunday, but the Elbies are coming and it's worth staying around for. Thank you for your support again. Thanks for listening to the emergency podcast.

And we will see you for a brilliant, brilliant ceremony. Let's know your thoughts as we mentioned and we'll be very keen to hear all of your opinions. That's it for us. In the meantime, I've been Samuel Sage. And I've been Ben Hawking. And remember, keep breaking late. This podcast is part of the Sports Social Podcast Network.