The Late Braking F1 Podcast - Reviewing Preseason Predictions!

Episode Date: December 12, 2019

It's that time of year once again as Harry, Sam and Ben run through their preseason predictions and analyse what they got right and what they got wrong. Spoiler alert, there's a bit more in the wrong column. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Hello, and I'm very warm welcome. This is the Lake Breaking Formula One podcast. tonight we're going to be reviewing our preseason predictions. We got plenty wrong. We got a few right here and there, but many more wrong than right. I have got Harry Eden and Sammy Sage with me. I'm Ben Hocking. Guys, are you looking forward to us ripping ourselves?

I'm really looking forward to this review tonight. I'm thoroughly excited for this review. Not sure Harry is. I really am. I'm not excited. Yeah. If you hadn't guessed already, Harry has lost everything as usual. So we'll be getting into our driver's championship predictions and our constructors

championship predictions later on. But the headline, we're going to start with teammate wars. At the beginning of the season, we look at the 10 teams, we choose which of the teammates are going to come out on top. And then we rate ourselves out of 10 at the end of the year. So without any further ado, let's get going with it. Mercedes, of course, all three of us decided. not to be idiots on this one, and we went for Lewis Hamilton, all three of us, clean sweep.

I mean, there was never really any doubt about that one. Was there? That's amazing that all three of us actually gave a serious, proper, understandable answer to a question. Yeah, I feel like we don't get too many all spot. Although, to be fair, this year, we have had a few where we've all picked the same and we've all been right. So maybe we are getting better at this. slowly but surely. Yeah. I mean, a slight 2020

preview here. Are either of you going to pick Botas in 2020? No. No. Wow, if it's too bold for you, Harry, then, I mean,

forget it. My bold days are over, last. I've already lost enough of my hair. I'm bald enough on my head rather to be bald in my predictions. You don't usually

follow that motto, Sam. your predictions are completely bold. It's the only thing that makes me stand out in this trio, okay? And speaking of bold predictions, because I don't think we need to dwell too much on Mercedes. That was a done deal very early on. All three of us picked Hamilton.

Ferrari, though, we had a complete split. Myself and Harry picking the veteran Sebastian Vessel thinking that he would beat the young upstart in Charles Leclair. And Sam, a bit of a bold decision from you to go for Charles Leclair, but,

ultimately paid dividends. Charlotte Clay, he came on so well in that second half of the season, didn't he, Sam? It was just getting my bones. I knew it from Bahrain, where he almost won. It just felt like a natural pick. As Tim McMarthic would say, I've taken the ascendancy here in this round of the quiz. Charlotte Clare was always the obvious choice. I'm a big lover of Seviervet, but what a man, Charlotte Clare's turned out to be.

A boy to man scenario is taking me on that journey of success with him, year. So I tip my hats of you, Chocolate of Claire. What a man, want a man, what a man, what a man, good man. You have the opportunity to say, what a Monaco man then. And you didn't take it. I'm

so gutted. Sorry. I thought Sam, I thought you said Charlotte Claire for the title. I did. We're going to ignore that bit. Well, I mean, we're not, because we're going to come on to that later, but we'll ignore it for now at least, Sam. God, damn it!

Yes, unfortunately in this predictions review, we are going to review our predictions. Harry, this might be the most you thing ever. And I can't say too much because obviously I went for Vettel as well and he lost. But he did have the advantage in the first half of the season. And I remember just after sort of the first half, we went midterm review kind of thing. And we said, what was our best prediction? What was our worst prediction? And you said your best prediction was that Vettel would be.

beat Leclair and ultimately that completely backfire. Harry, you managed to be wrong on a prediction you said was right. How? How? 14 points, lads. Like, give me a break. I mean, I went with you. That's allowed to bring down on Russia that have been less than that. Quick math. Well, I don't know where we're going to finish. He might got, yeah, you might have one. Yeah, look, this is a recurring theme tonight. I suck. Predictions aren't your strong point.

You are fantastic at Formula One generally, but predicting the future maybe not your thing. No, don't ask for any lottery numbers from me, because they'll all be wrong, and you'll win 50p. It's more than I've won. Yeah, it's more than I've ever won on the lottery. I mean, looking ahead to 2020, of course,

Leclair and Vettel will be partners once more. Do you think there's any chance that Vettel bounces back, Harry? I think there's every chance. And like I said, I was wrong, yes, but it was pretty close by the end of the year. And I know they both had the share of bad luck. But yeah, and LeClaire certainly beat him in quality, but I still think it was fairly evenly matched, particularly in the race. Vettel still used his experience on occasions to win over his young

upstart of a team mate. Yeah, so I think next year's just going to be just as close. It could go either way again. I think that's to be another close year. I don't think either one of them is going to walk away with it. But that's probably wrong. Yeah, the margins were fairly minimal. And in terms of their DNFs, they didn't have too many each,

but I think Vettles were generally reliability related, whereas the Claire did make a couple of errors. So it was close between the two of them. I'm very interested to see how that worked in 2020. and see if Leclerc can build on that momentum. Red Bull. Now, this one's slightly weird, along with Toro, because, of course, they switched halfway through the season,

but we're going to, for the sake of teammate wars, just take the first set of partners. So we made our predictions based on Vestappan versus Gassley and Alba versus Kavillaat. And, of course, I mean, it doesn't really matter. Vastappan beat them both. And none of us were idiots on this one. Much like Mercedes, it was a clean suite.

We all said Vestappen would win. Sam, do you think that Albin's going to stand any chance against Vostappan next year? Because, I mean, he wiped the floor clean with both of them, really. Well, Albin did well the first half of the second half of the season. So the third quarter of the calendar. Immediately after the summer break, until we got to around Russia. Album's doing really well, especially up to Japan, match for qualifying. I keep bringing that up.

That's still a real success in for Staple. He was very good on a Saturday. if Alba can recover that earlier form, I do think he could be a really strong wingman. I don't think he'll beat Max. Max is within the form of his life, and that could go on for years and years. But I do think Alba has a chance of challenging him.

I think he's probably the closest team mate, Max is going to have as to what Daniel Ricardo was to Max Verstappan. So I'm hoping the challenge is there, but we'll have to see. It's all up in the air at the moment. Harry, at what point were you confident that Vestappen was going to be Gassley? Was it within the first five, of the Australian Grand Prix.

Yes. I think that's two. No, I had no doubt about that, to be honest. There's, I don't, there aren't many drivers on the grid who I think could come into a team or coming to Red Bull at least and beat for Stappon.

I mean, Hamilton, LeCler. I mean, Ricardo, maybe, because he's been there before, but yeah, there aren't many drivers who could do it. So, not that obviously, Gazzie didn't have the best year, but it's not necessarily a bad thing to the driver who's coming in, it's just as it happens bloody good and it's hard to beat him.

Yeah. And of course, Red Bull exceeding expectations by not being a midfield team, right? So, yeah, well done to him. More on that one later. Speaking of incredible predictions that didn't come true, we move on to Renno, where Daniel Ricardo faced Nico Holcombberg, we all went for Daniel Ricardo, and he did win, not by all that much. Ben, you were finally right about Holcomburgh.

Yeah, and I've got something to say about this one, because I feel very passionately about this one. 2017, I predicted that Jolian Palmer, my boy, Joel P., that he would beat Nico Holcomburg, and he let me down. He let me down like a sack of potatoes. Oh, hard. And then I thought, it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter, because Nico Holcomberg will meet his match in 2018.

Carlos Sines will be the man to take him down and Nick Holkenberg beat him fairly comfortably so learning from my mistakes I decided this year that I'm going to predict Nico Holkenberg will lose again and finally someone has stepped up and done it Holkenberg well done yeah lost I was right

it took a while but I've bloody well got there and now it's got no drive so you'll never be wrong again I actually quite like Nick Holkenberg We are a fan of him on the channel. It's just getting a little boring, it's all agreeing, and all being relatively right for this first period

of driver predictions. Yeah, I think our predictions are actually more aligned this year compared to previous years, but we do have some differences coming up. Now, of course, Ricardo gets a different teammate next year in Esteban Ockon.

How is he going to fare there? Do you think Ockham will present more of a challenge than Holcombberg did, Harry? I don't know actually I think it's going to be about the same it's hard to tell because Alcon's had a year out of the car but he is a pacey driver as we all know so is Ricardo obviously and he's seen off Holkenberg

after just one year so I think Ricardo is going to have a challenge but Othon's also going to have a challenge it's going to be another interesting year for Renault I think but a nice little line-up they've got going forward now. Not that they didn't have a good lineup, but another good lineup for 2020. A bit of a tasty rival really for next year. McLaren, who I think we'd all agree were the surprises of the season, finishing fourth place and doing so quite comfortably.

Lando Norris and Carlos Seines, I think all three of us kind of looked at this at the beginning of the season and thought this was one of the more exciting teammate matchups on the grid. And we were split on this one. both of you went for Lando Norris. I just went for Carlos Sines with a lot of debate. Unfortunately, I came out the right side of that one. I mean, Lando Norris, though, he had a good rookie season.

I think we can all agree with that. Sam, what's that sorry? It was all right, wouldn't it? Yeah, he had a good rookie season, and Carlos Sines was unbelievable. Do you think Lando Norris stacks up a little bit better, or a little bit closer, I think is the better word, Sam, next year? I think even due to his bad luck, I give all credit to Landon and a fantastic drive,

but I think Carlos was still so on top of his game that I don't think Landau would have beating him even with consistent success for Landau. But as a rookie drive to come into a new team, to gel so well, to get so in tune with the car, to become almost such an icon of F1 already in the space of 21 races. The only thing I'm so disappointing about is this is my only incorrect answer for the entire predictions. Damn you, Lando. I shall be drinking almond milk tonight because of you. Oh.

I mean, he's not going to like that. Good. I hope he gets a big L on his predictions for LB. Yeah, you're one and only blemish on the record, Sam. And I mean, you agreed with Harry on that. So I think the other... That's why. Yeah, the prediction X-Gue is don't agree with Harry.

That should be a rule for life. quote. Anyway, so I'll take my victory there because I don't have too many more coming up. Sorry, what was that, Harry? Have I got any victories coming up? Yeah, you've got a few. One.

Kimmy Rykenen, Alpha Romeo, fairly comfortable win. He had some, what was it, three or four points finishes early on in the season, where Antonio Givenazzi couldn't really match him. And Reikinen, yeah, it was fairly comfortable from there. We all said Kimi Reikinen. It was never really in doubt that one, was it? I mean, that's cool of the being cool.

The Iceman is going to kill anyone out of any car. He and Juvenatsi, in his first two races, decided to face the wrong way. So it's not like Kimmy had a lot of competition to begin with. It was a pretty obvious choice. But I think Antonio Givenatsi, he definitely kicked on well in the second half of the season. And I'm intrigued to see how it does in 2020

because I think, I mean, early prediction, I think that it's going to be really close between the two of them next year. I really enjoyed seeing the list of drivers that led races. Yes, yeah. Hamilton, Bottas, the Claire, the Stappen, Vettel, Giavanazzi,

like the gap from like 100 and something laps four. And I was like, yeah, Gio, you're mad. You go, Joe. Yeah, you go, girlfriend. Love it. Yeah. He fully deserved that. Fair play to him. Now, I've got a problem with the next one, because I think I've got a massive problem with this one. It feels so wrong, but we have to go with points.

In the battle between George Russell and Robert Kubitsa, the winner is Robert Kubitsa by one point to zero, despite being outqualified 21-0. meaning both me and Harry get this wrong. But Sam, you and your expert opinion, you knew that Kivisa, even though he'd get dominated, would pick up one random point in Germany, didn't you? 200 IQ scrap, like you? 200 IQ. I actually didn't realize I put Kubitsa to win.

What a moronic choice. He was right. He made me eat pasta out of my shoe. What a... This is how you repay me, Kibbitzer? That was the good. decision that maybe win this round. So in a weird way, it's come back to benefit me.

So you said Kibitza and then also said they'd never score a point. My prediction is everyone listening should know this now. I'm not consistent. I rarely remember what I said the day before. There's a wayward. That is. Anyway, I'm right. You're wrong.

And I beat you all single-handedly. Oh, come on. That's a very hollow win, Sam. I know. Still a victory, my friends. It's still a point somehow. So, yeah, you... I'm not for Russell, who definitely deserves one.

Yeah, you can take your W there, Sam. And you can on the next one as well, because you were the only one who got the Haas team right as well. I thought, ah, Romang-Grojean, the wee French baguette. He is going to make... He's Scottish. He's a Scots French, all right?

And I don't know why. I'm disappointed in Roman Grosian. I thought it'd come back this year. I thought he'd really take it to Kevin Magnuson. And, I mean, the Haskell was dreadful, but he didn't. He really didn't. It'll be next year. You don't beat the box office.

He delivers every single time. Come on. You voted for a soggy baguette to be a box office thriller on a Saturday night live. And you were wrong. now I mean this is kind of a repeat of the Nico Holcomberg thing but the opposite way round in that I've predicted Roman Grosjean to win two in the last two seasons and he's lost both times so am I going to learn my lesson and pick Kevin Magnuson in 2020 stay tuned to find out probably not I've got one thing to say about your predictions

imbathetic my balls hung it that was inevitable it was going to turn up at some point honestly what are we doing here explicit list now okay two more to go racing point Sergio Perez against Lance Stroll

intelligently all of us backed Perez rather than Stroll and even though Stroll did have their best finish of the year that P4 that he got in Germany that was pretty much it and Perez was consistently picking up points particularly towards the end of

season he had a really good really good second half of the year um i mean yeah this was this was another clean sweep for us we're we're not too bad at this you know we're great at this i mean predicting peres to beat someone who could pass has never driven a formula one car before great predictions from us you're talking about goat stroll i'm kidding goat stroll we love you we love you so i mean what the strong can stroll actually do anything about this in 2020. Will he beat Perez or will he even get close to Perez? Harry, what do you think?

I mean, Sam was going to say something. Yeah, I was just going to say, first step. Get out of key one. Yeah, it's a good start. Yeah. I don't, I just don't have a lot of confidence in Lantz, if we're honest. And I have a lot of confidence in him since he joined F1. He's not been, in fact, he had the podium and the place in Monser, apart from that.

Yeah, I don't know. He's just... It's just not very good, is he? Do you know what Stroll would be perfect in? 1950s Formula One? Yeah. Because what you could do is you could get Stroll to start the race, do the first lap, come into the pits at the end of the first lap,

and then switch your drivers around, which you could do in the 1950s, and then get the other person to drive the rest of the race, because Stroll's first laps are consistently incredible. Yeah, true. leave a little bit to be desired. So that would be my strategy, but unfortunately that does involve a change in the rules. So I don't think the teams are going to go for all that.

The final one, Tora Roso, again, a little bit like Red Bull, bit of an interesting one in that it was Kaviat versus Albon for the first half, and then Kaviat versus Ghazli for the second half. We did all pick Danny Kaviat to win, which he did, mainly thanks to that podium that he got in Germany. but yeah, Danny Kaviyat beat Alexander Albon. I mean, we'll get to this in a little bit, but embarrassingly, we all put Albon to be in the bottom three of the championship.

Why don't make Albon so much? I don't know, but Kaviyat did beat him, so we all got that right. I rate Kavirat this year. I think he's done a really stellar job of coming back in and showing off a bit. I think he'd hang a really strong season. It wasn't the best season in the world. I think he was best a little bit by Ghazli in the second half, but I think Kavir's come back nicely.

I see it was a really accredited driving out for the midfield. And I think the Torosso finished a lot higher up than we all expected, partially because of Kaviat's consistency in the points. See, I think it was a really confusing season for Kviyat, because he did do a reasonably good job against Alman. In fact, I'd say it did a pretty good job. But Red Bull decided to go for an upgrade in replacing Gassley with Alburn. And against Gassley, Kaviat did worse.

Like, you would have expected it to have been the other. the way around, surely. Yeah, I guess there'll not be a reflection on Gassley, though. He opened up again. He just lit up back in that tour or so. He had a much better second half than he did the first half, which might explain it a bit. But, yeah, that is an odd one, to be honest.

So, I mean, scores on the doors. We've reviewed all 10. The good news is we are all over 50%. We all got more than half right. Harry, unfortunately, it is only by one. point, but you did come last with six. I picked you mainly thanks to Carlos Sines with seven, but

with only Lando Norris as the blemish on his record, nine out of ten, Samuel, Sage, you take the crown for teammate wars. Goat Sage. Get that on a t-shirt, people. I'm expected to see it in a week. Hashtag, goat's sage. I mean,

me and stroll, we're running this. I mean, I have decided to appeal the Kubitsa result and it's with the stewards at the moment But stewards say no Stewards say racing incident So yeah I'm your winner, thank you, we'll move on Because I'm about to be embarrassed

Yeah, I was about to say congratulations Back down to Earth Drivers' Championship predictions First of all, I'm going to run through Because we did the top six So I'm going to run through the top six of each of us then we can laugh. So we'll start with Sam.

Sam, your top six in order. You said LeCler was going to be the world champion. You said Hamilton was going to be second. Vettel was going to be third. Verstapp and fourth. Reichend and fifth. Yes, Kimmy. And Daniel Riccardo in sixth.

Hold on. Where's Vettel? You've been third? Oh yeah. Where's Bottas? Yeah, that's the better question. Harry, you went for a vettle to win his fifth world championship. Hamilton in second again.

Leclair in third, Vastappen in fourth, Bottas in fifth, and Daniel Ricardo in sixth. Right. Actually, mine is less ridiculous than yours, Sam. True. That is very true. I didn't get a single position right, I don't think. I will confirm you didn't get any. My prediction, I got the world champion right.

I said Lewis Hamilton would win the world championship, which he did. I said Vastappen would finish second, Vettel would finish third, Bottas fourth, Leclair fifth and Gassley sixth. So. You've got one right? Yeah. If you add all the points up, how do you get? It depends how we do it.

If we do it by correct positions, then I think I won 1-0-0. So overall, the points go to 9-8-6. All right, yeah. Well, I don't know about that. He's desperately trying to claw a victory. I'm trying to find something here. I'm really trying to find something.

Let's start with your sums. Obviously, you didn't get the LeClebe to be world champion bit right, but you did get in Beezing Vettel, right? So that is something at least. Do you think with the car, LeCleur would have been able to challenge? I had real high hopes that Ferrari were going to be straight out the blocks, the car to be. I thought this was going to be the year.

They'd finally focus all their attempts. Lecler, I did get the Lecler thing right. I really thought he was going to turn up to the team. All guns blazing already go out there. We saw in Australia, Team August kept him behind Vettel. Bahrain, he could have won the race if it wasn't for reliability issues. I genuinely think that if Ferrari has had that mid-season performance at the start of this race, we really could have had a fight on right to the end.

I think they've got all the correct teammates beating their teammates. But, yeah, unfortunately, Lecler, not the champion. I think it will have been such a great battle between how we're taking Lecler if it would have happened. Although Botas probably should have been slightly higher at the table, maybe I'll give him a bit more grace next season when we do the predictions. Yeah, I think you put him outside your top six because you believed he was going to be replaced by Ockon midway through the season. So even though that is also wrong, at least there was a reason for you doing it. Okay, I have some evidence there.

Well done. Harry, I mean, similar question, because obviously you had Sebastian Vettel to win the championship. Do you think this was just a case of Ferrari not quite being there? Well, as clear, Ferrari went there, I don't think Vettel was he was definitely not there for the entire year, was he? But, I mean, weirdly, we came out of testing, and everyone was tipping Ferrari to be favourites by a, a country mile and then we got to Australia and Mercedes or particularly Bottas just walked off into the distance and then we had Bahrain where they little they closed the gap but story of Ferrari's year where they've just not executed when they've had the faster car so Bahrain a prime example

Baku Canada kind of technically if you want to go with that just yeah that those sort of occasions so it's a bit of both but I think even if they did have the um car underneath and for the entire year, I still don't think they would have won. Looking back. Interesting. Yeah, I think we've just got to look at preseason testing now and just ignore Mercedes.

Just pretend they are not there. They're still going to be at the top. It doesn't matter if they come first. It might not be there in terms of times because they're never there, are they? They're like languishing somewhere and then they come and win everything. But they do the distance of the world seven times.

time's over in terms of mileage. Yeah, it was just Hamilton for me at the beginning of the season. I wasn't sure about Mercedes and where they would be. I actually thought Mercedes weren't going to be as good as what they were. Hence, why didn't have Botas second and I had him fourth? But even with a slightly inferior car, I thought Hamilton would get the job done. And as it turns out, that performance in the first half of the year was just too much. And the gap was too much for the rest of them to catch up, even when that Ferrari got much better. finally looking at the constructors championship here we go

I'll start with you Harry so you went for Ferrari to win the Constructors championship you said Mercedes would be second smashed it I've got to say it you went for Renault to be third boom there it is you said best of the rest would be

alpha Romeo and that they would also be the most improved team and you said Williams would be asked I have a red bull in my world what happened I don't think I was too far off what you said either, Harry, don't worry. I think you just forgot they existed. The face of the planet.

Unbelievable. Sam, you went for Ferrari to win as well. Then Mercedes 2nd and Red Bull 3rd. Oh, this one's semi-realistic. Yeah, I mean, Red Bull worth it. So you got that one, right? Best of the rest, you said Renno, which I don't think was a bad shout. Alpha Romeo is the most improved team in Williams' last.

Okay, I got a couple right, I'm all right with that And I said Mercedes would win Followed by Ferrari and then Red Bull Oh, you nailed it, you turd I also, but that's where Yeah, I said Renaud would be best of the rest as well though So that wasn't correct And I don't think there's really a measure for most improved

But we all said alpha Romeo One thing we were definitely all right about Was Williams would be last We all said that and we were absolutely dead on It couldn't have been more last if they tried Well, they could have had one less point. It's a real shame, actually, how far Williams were, you know, how far back they were this season. It's always so sad to see a team struggle to that extent.

Hopefully they have something to cheer about next season. See, that's the thing. We've had years in Formula One where even the last decade where you had HRT and Virgin and all that rubbish. And then you had caterer and Mauritia. You kind of always had two or three teams at the back of the grid. So it didn't feel too much of an impact. and we also did have a few more teams on the grid then. Now, it's a case of they're really the only team that's completely off the pace.

And a Hasf did struggle a lot, but they were still in Q3 quite a lot. Williams were the only team that were very distant this year. Yeah, that's really sad. I hope that they get a little bit of success next year. Just maybe, you know, one Q3 appearance and two points finishes or something would be better, you know, a step up. for them I think it kind of helps next year

we have no rule changes even announced yesterday the times are going to be the same aren't they next year so I think that'll help them it can't be any worse than this year can it well

they can score no points true it could just about be worse yeah that's all right I've retract my statement we'll have to wait and see on that so those are our predictions I like to think we didn't do that badly.

There were a few howlers in there, but... I did very badly. There were some right ones in there. You had some right answer. You said Vastaffan would beat Ghazly. That was right. Yay, and Halibon. Ye.

Okay, so I think we will end it there. In terms of podcast for the rest of the year, I think we can have one more before the year. If you're very fortunate as a Christmas treat. Please listen. We really need you to listen, please. Please, please listen. We will be back again in January, of course.

But I think we will have one more before the year is out. Until then, Sam, do you want to get us out of here? Well, folks, if you made your own predictions or you just think our predictions are downright ridiculous, I want to hear what yours are and what you think of ours, please. What was your most ridiculous prediction of the 2019 season? I mean, do you think that anything wilds can happen in the 2020 season? Maybe the most ridiculous one will get featured in our predictions video, which comes up in the new year. But in the meantime, I've been Samuel Sage.

I've been Ben Hocking. I've been Harry Eats. And remember, keep breaking late. This podcast is part of the Sports Social Podcast Network.