The Late Braking F1 Podcast - Who has the best chance of beating Mercedes in 2020?

Episode Date: November 21, 2019

Mercedes secured six consecutive championships in 2019 but who is best placed to beat them in 2020: Ferrari or Red Bull? The guys discuss this and much, much more in this week's episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I'm joined today by Harry Ead and Samuel Sage. How are you going to do? I love that he says that like it could be different people every week. Well, sometimes it's one of you. I mean, it's always the three of us and that's why this is very busy. that LB for the three. Yes. Not a race weekend coming up, I'm afraid.

So, yeah, we're going to fill some time with some juicy topics. We're going to be talking about the McLaren guys. Carlos Sines, Lando Norris, secured P4 in the Constructors Championship, but we're going to be looking at them individually and whether either of them, or maybe both of them, have world championship potential in the future. Valdry Bottas has 2019 been his best season so far. But first, we're going to be talking about Mosecée. because whilst they have wrapped up both championships in 2019, of course, we're looking ahead to 2020.

Six consecutive driver's championships. Six consecutive constructors championships. Red Bull and Ferrari, obviously, their main challenges. Harry, I'll pose the question to you. Which of those two do you think are in a better position to take Mercedes down in 2020? Sam just pointed us himself. I am the one to take down Mercedes. Yeah, sorry, it was a trick question.

answer is Sam? Well, you'd have to base it on the fact that Ferrari have had a few years at it now and they've not managed to topple Mercedes and their momentum does seem to be swinging towards Red Bull and the Stappen and that Honda package because that engine is now working well. Even within just a year of it being in the Red Bull, it's working well. So 2020, I think I would be worried if I was Mercedes.

I'd be worried about the Vastappan factor because a bit of consistency in terms of the pace of the car and he's going to be a deadly force to be reckoned with. So yeah, I'm not saying Ferrari won't be in it but I think realistically, we know how strong Red Bull can be as a team.

They've just not had necessarily the horsepower to unleash their goodness. So over the past few years. So yeah, if that's the way, then I would be worried if I was Mercedes because Red Bull are a force to be reckoned with. Sam, which of the two do you think are in a better position to beat the champs? Well, I was going to say that the majority of people would say Ferrari, especially after their absolute immense run after the summer break. Of course, Shola Clair, picking up his first wings,

many pole positions coming their way. Shalickler gets the most polls of the season. I don't think can be beaten now by anyone, which is incredibly impressive. And Harry was right in saying that Ferrari have had many years on the go at trying to beat Mercedes, but that's not really how sport works. It can almost be flipped on its head at any given moment. I am going to completely agree with Harry in that I think if Honda can provide just a slightly better range of what they've got now, not leaps and bounds ahead, you know, 5% improvement, 10% improvement. I generally think that that combined with their incredible chassis, the team is just unstoppable in terms of their work ethic. Pit stops that any team would die to have. And obviously,

the Staffan Albon, I think, are a quality duo, if Albu can get stepping up a little bit more, and we're talking constructors here, I genuinely think the Red Bull have got the absolute ability to take down the Seiz, and I didn't think I'd be saying this. They always improved massively come the end of the year, but they can never seem to carry that through the winter break. I think this might be a year,

the final year of this hybrid era, I think Red Bull are the ones to account for come next season. I think the Stappan could really, really challenge for his first World Drivers' Championship, if consistency and reliability are on his side. Of course, the one thing to say is, always had going for them is that car reliability. So rarely do they have a D&A due to the car failing on them. So if Red Bull could deliver that, which they've struggled with in the past, partially due to the

Renault engines, but still have struggles, then I generally think there could be a serious contender and we can have a mega-season next season to cap off. It's been a pretty crazy hybrid era. The hybrids aren't going anywhere, are they? Yeah, but this is called the hybrid era. We've got a new era in 2020. Oh, okay. We're still hybrid, so. Yes, but that's crazy nice looking F1 car hero. I like that's more catchy. Official name, yeah.

I think both Ferrari and Red Bull, it's fascinating how they are quite obviously the main challenges to Mercedes. Yet their strengths and weaknesses are completely different. You've got Red Bull who, in terms of trusting one team over the other, in terms of strategy, you would definitely trust Red Bull over Ferrari. They have consistently been better strategically than Ferrari. It was great to see Hannah Schmidt get the accolade when she went up to the podium this weekend because Red Bull continually have such great strategies and really compete with Mercedes in that department. Aerodynamically, you trust Red Bull over Ferrari.

And I think out of the four drivers, I think Red Bull currently have the best of the lot in terms of, I think Vastappan is the best of those four. But there are plenty of things going for Ferrari as well. I think as a combination, their drivers are still slightly better than Red Bulls, just because I don't think we've seen quite enough from Albin. And I think Betel and Lecler are perhaps a better combination than Vostapp and Albin. In terms of their engine performance, Ferrari win in that department. Even reliability, Honda have closed the gap quite a lot. I'd still give a very minor edge to Ferrari.

So there are plenty of reasons to go one way or the other. and I'm actually going to disagree with you both. I'm going to say Ferrari is the main threat to Mercedes next year. But the main reason for that is I think Ferrari are going to be more short-term thinking than Red Bull. 2020 might well be the year that Mercedes are most vulnerable if they have all of their sites set on 2021 and this next era of F1. If Mercedes do have too much of an eye on 2021, then maybe they will be vulnerable and maybe Ferrari who are desperate for a championship, I would argue more desperate than Red Bull. I think Ferrari might adopt slightly more of a short-term strategy to get that one last

championship. It might not serve them very well later down the line if Mercedes get a head start on them in 2021. But yeah, I think I'm going to go with Ferrari here. I still think that Mercedes are the team to beat. And unless Mercedes are off the ball, we know Mercedes, they don't beat themselves. 20 years ago or so, take 99 championships, for example, Haken and Irvine and all that.

It was just whoever made the least mistakes that won the championship. Now it's a case that Mercedes are so, so good that it's really difficult to beat them unless you are almost perfect throughout the year. So I can only see either winning if Mercedes are too focused on 2021. But I'm going to get the erst of Ferrari here. It would be interesting to see when we do our predictions for the 2021 season, if anyone decides to put someone above Mercedes or both cars above Mercedes,

or of course, we all go for Mercedes as it is. Obviously, stay tuned. That big a game will come out in the coming weeks and months as we build into are the unfortunate winter period. Yeah. Renaud in third again. This is another reminder that Harry predicted that Renault would be third this season. And this is another reminder that five teams have got a podium this year,

and Renault are not one of them. no problem at all harry i'm sure you were thanking me internally um so if we're predicting ferrari or redball perhaps challenging mercedes for the constructor championship in 2020 who do you think is perhaps the best threat for the driver's championship i'm presuming the answer is going to be maxis to happen but i'll ask the question anyway harry do you think he is their main threat yes do you want me to expand on yes i don't um no that'll do it um He's going to be in his second year. So he's still building his career up.

So it would be unfair to expect him. I'd love it if he was a championship challenger, but I don't see it happening, particularly going by the form that Vastapen is in. Yeah, it's going to be maxi Vestap if Red Bull are challengers for the title. Sam, do you think if Red Bull produce a similar car in terms of ability to Mercedes-

that Vastappen can be there fighting for the championship or winning it? I generally think we could see a three, possibly four-way fight for the championship this season. I think you're right. I think Mercedes might take their eye off the ball a little bit and push towards that 2021 season starts to try and have another incredibly dominant era. I genuinely think that if Ferrari goes short, some Red Bull continue on that build, Max Verstaffin on his day is unstoppable. I think even Lewis Hamilton has a tough time beating Max for Staffing at the moment.

The car tends to have more weakness. always seeing, especially when they follow. Hamilton, obviously, one of the most consistent drivers we've ever seen in Formula One, obviously never not won a race, regardless of what season he's in. And Charlotte Clare, who will be in his second season of Ferrari,

looking to take real dominance on that Ferrari team. You're right, I think they will have a short-term focus. He is just so good, especially on a Saturday, and that gives him a real edge over the likes of Vettel album, who I don't think is just there yet still a good wingman. And I think Bottas, who we'll come on to him a little bit,

who is still improving. I still think Bottas maybe could have the year, the year where he maybe really challenges Hamilton. If all put falls together, we get a perfect storm. I think it's going to be so difficult to call. Yes, I think if you're going to pick one stand that name due to form at the moment, the staffing probably takes it. But I don't think Lecler is too far away.

I think he's hot on his heels, especially, as I said, in that Saturday performance. It's just conversing that. And he's done that more times than most at the moment in the latter part of the season. So Lecler is a real threat to look out for next season. How long does he's got to keep his eyes. I still think he is the favourite to win the championship. But the staff and LeCler are going to be there.

I mean, the quality of F1 drivers nowadays is just so strong when you consider the likes of Botas might not even be in the top five. Maybe he is, but it's just so difficult. And even the midfield drivers now, you feel as if 10 years ago, 20 years ago, they would be right at the top of the grid. I think if all things were even, and of course Formula One doesn't work like that, but if all three cars at the top were very similar in terms of ability, I think there are two drivers right now who are better than the rest of the field,

and they are Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. I would put Shaola Claire a close third, and I still think Vettel was still a very quality driver. Carlos Sines has really pushed on this year. But yeah, I would say that Vestappan and Hamilton are the two best in Formula One, in which case, Vestappen, if they give him the car, which of course is a huge question in all this, because they haven't quite been able to do that so far.

I think if Stappan is given the car to win the championship, I think he'll take it all away with Lewis Hamilton. I don't think Lewis Hamilton will be winning with four races to go or five races to go. I think it would at least go down to the wire, even if he doesn't win it. Very exciting. I generally think we can have one of the best seasons.

We've seen maybe since, what, 2011 for 12, sorry, yeah. 2011 was fun. Vettel, metal, metal, metal. that was exciting for German fans everywhere. 2012, I'm incredibly exciting. I think next year could really be something similar. Really hope you are correct on that prediction, Sam. Moving on to Mr. Valtrey Bottas.

He secured second place in the Drivers' Championship this year. Most points he's ever had in his career. The question is, 2019, has this been Valtry Bottas' best season in Formula One? Sam, kick us off on this one. So you've got to give credit to Bob. He outqualified Lewis Hamilton for pole positions this year. I don't think he out qualified him if you put all the positions across the season. But in terms of grabbing polls, he beat Lewis Hamilton in terms of grabbing polls in the same car.

That is a formidable thing to do. The all-time poll sitter. So that's a check. Big check against Walter's name. Secondly, most points. Check. More wings than he got in the previous season, which was a big fat none. Check.

You know, he's stepped up his game. I think he's got a lot more to do. But I think Bottas has walked into this season, 2.0. encouraging his belly, feeling warm, and giving the two middle fingers to Hamilton and the rest of the world. You're gone, yeah, I can prove myself here. Yeah, you know, we've seen the photo of him swearing at the camera being all hard like he's from Brixton. But, yeah, you know, he's having a good time. I think he's still got a lot to do. But in terms of comparing this other season to the rest of his seasons, do I think it's his best season? No, I don't think it is. I think his best season was the season where he got that incredible result in Williams in Cannes.

that was such a breakout season for Botas. He destroyed his teammate, I think was master at the time, drove brilliantly well. He was always so far up the grid. He led that team to dominance. He showed why he was such a young star. And everyone went, Bottas and the Mercedes.

It's got to happen. He is the next world champion. I don't think that's really materialised. It's actually moving up. But that, for me, was such an exciting time for Bottas. I think this is more a evolution, like, more a revolution, whereas Bottas at the start was like an evolution.

Came out of nowhere. It was that spark, you know, something new. emerge. So great season for Bottas, but for me, not his absolute pinnacle best season. I'm hoping next year we see something massive. Harry, do you think 2019 has been Bottas' best year? I actually kind of agree with Sam. He's obviously stepped up this year, evidently, and he's had some stellar performances to bag some wins, bags and pole positions along the way. But I'm kind of inclined to agree with Sam, because I think 20,

2014 is still his best year in that Williams when it was kind of semi-competitive. He put some really great drives all year in that car. And yes, I don't think it quite beats that, to be honest. But it's at least his second best season. And it's in terms of, sorry, in terms of driving ability, like it's way further than he was driving in 2014 because he's had to. if he kept it consistent across the whole season, then I'd say, yes, it was his best, best season ever in Formula One.

But he didn't quite manage that. But all round, good season for Bottas. He just needs to do it, step up again next year. Yeah, and I think his point of emphasis has to be that it's a big improvement on 2018, and it's definitely a step in the right direction for him. One year I'm going to mention it, 2016, which is perhaps a bit of a weird one, because that's actually his least amount of points in Formula One, apart from his first year at Williams, which, I mean, doesn't really count. It was that bad of a car. In 2016, of course, by that point, Williams were slipping down the grid. Bottas managed 85 points that season, still beat Massa quite comfortably. I think that one flies under the radar slightly, just because the car was, that was the second worst car he's ever been in, beat Massa very comfortably, outqualified in 17 races to four. It was a massive win over Massa that year. bigger than the previous two years. So I think that one deserves a mention. As to 2014, of course,

he did really well. To get a podium in every year, he was in that, sorry, 2014 to 2016 to get a podium in every single one of those three years. Very impressive from him. I'm going to go for either this year or 2017, though, in Mercedes. And there's not much actually separating the two years. He might have slightly more points this year, not much, but his teammate also has a few more points. So it kind of evens itself out in that respect. You know, wins almost exactly the same. He's got four this year, had three in 2017. But I actually think this year has been his best year in Formula One,

just because of the amount of pole positions he's taken. And I think it's the one differentiating factor over 2017 and perhaps over his other seasons as well. Five pole positions against Lewis Hamilton's four. It's only the second time in Lewis Hamilton's career that a teammate has scored more pole positions. than him, although technically it could go to 5-5 in Abu Dhabi, but he won't be beaten, put it that way. That is a massive achievement, especially considering 2017, Hamilton had 11 polls and Bottas had four.

It was absolutely nowhere near to really narrow that gap. Okay, he hasn't quite translated that into Sundays. But as I said, it's a step in the right direction. Bottas, it's all about consistency. It's all about being able to deliver not one in every three races, but to deliver in four and every five races or something along those lines. That's what Hamilton does. And if you want to beat Hamilton, that's the consistency you have to produce.

It's no good winning a Grand Prix and then going off the boil for a couple of races. Maybe that will come next year. I do hope so. It would really result in a great championship fight. But yeah, I'm going to say 2019, just about is his best year in Formula One. I think that's interesting to know, actually, that you're right. The difference in pole positions there was huge last year. And I think Hamilton, this is where we see the development of Lewis Hamilton,

why he is such the champion that he is. He's weakest point, I feel, last season, where he starts to grow in Prizes. And if anything, I feel like his starts this year have been the best we've ever seen. Take Brazil, for example, get right around the outside of Sebastian, and charging away onto the back of Manx-Lastappan. Bottas, on the other hand, has kind of gone, Lewis is incredible at qualifying. I need to be better at qualified.

I wonder if now next year we'll see Boss has to be much better at starting on the Qualify or on the grid after a good qualifying performance. Maybe that's the complete package. I'd be really interested to know in the comments and both of you guys, where you rank him out of the best driver on the grid? Is he top three or four? Do you think he's below the likes of science at the moment? Go on, Harry.

He's in the top six. I don't know. I need more time to think about that. Okay. list. I think, in my opinion, Hamilton Baskap and top two, whatever way you're going to put those round, I think it's a fair shout for me. Hamilton still gets it. I think LeCler is still better. I think Bottas is still better, not Botte's sorry, that's who we're talking about. Vessel is still better. Science is currently still better. And I think Ricardo is still better than Bottas. So I would

say that Bottas is either maybe the sixth or seventh best driver on the grid at the moment. It'd be interesting now if everyone agrees with me or thinks I'm completely wacky down in the comments. No, I don't think it's wacky. I don't think it's wacky. I would probably not put signs ahead of him just because I think it's a one-year thing. He was beaten by Nika Holcomberg last year. So I think on this season alone, sure, signs has been brilliant. In fact, we're going to get on signs in a bit, but I think he could well be driver of the season. But I think I just need a bit more of a sample size.

So I'm going to say maybe not Carlos Sines. But I think Daniel Ricardo is a fair shout. Sebastian Vessel, for all his weaknesses, is still probably just about better. Same with Charler-Cla. The margins are very narrow, but I think he is in and around that sort of fifth place.

Has agreed, disagree. Good stuff. Harry's for the time. It's so difficult to judge because Bottas, I think I put Ruggardo in front of Bottas. but like Sam no you're Sam

like Ben says it can't base it on one year for science too difficult but yeah I have top six he's in the top eight narrow that one down

he's in the top 15 just beats out Lanchstrel so yeah that was a very interesting discussion about your boss I mean for one Sam it was probably more positive than negative

Hey, okay, look, generally, I really love Bottas. He's a great guy. It's a great guy. I love Finland. I love blue and white on the flag. Why do you say that in Finland? That's how Monty Python sing it. The land of the Finns.

Yeah, anyway, Bottas is a great guy. I just feel like he used to give a little more when he's got the best car at his disposal. That is all. Fair enough. And the final point, you mentioned Carlos signs in that debate. we're going to be looking at Carlos Sines and Lando Norris here. P4 in the championship is now wrapped up. They've both had very good years.

Lando Norris has had a fairly unlucky year. Carlos Sines, as we've said, has been so good. Definitely a contender for driver of the season. Looking ahead, if they can get the car, do you think that either of them have world championship potential? And if so, which one has a bit more? Sam, who are you going for on this? This is actually a really, really tough debate.

I mean, we've only seen one, well, you see a full season of Landon Norris, but we've seen his junior career, and he's had one of the most successful junior careers of all time. You know, more wings than the likes of Lewis Hamilton in his junior career, which is an incredible statistic. He's just turned 20 years old. He's been so mature, so low by him, but so fun at the same time, which I love. I think you need charisma to be a world champion. I think it gives you a bit of spark for a difference on the track. As you said, Ben, had an incredibly unlucky season, a lot of gone wrong pit stops,

engine failures, Insect weren't his fault. And at the same time, we've seen moments of absolute magic. I mean, you cast your mind all the way back to Bahrain. And that move around the outside of the Stappen going down, I think it was turn four, almost off the track, but, you know, so aggressive and it gets so measured. To me, that shows he's got the hunger to move up the grid. So I generally think there is world champion potential, if given the correct car for Lando Norris. Carla Sites, a little bit more experience.

We've seen him around for quite a while. our few teams. I feel like this is the first time he's really, you know, been projected onto the world stage. Great driving tour, Rosso, not so great in Renault. And now McLaren,

he's finally burst onto the scene. Although, in television, apparently he doesn't exist. He's like a phantom. We never actually get to see that man's wonderful face. But if you were to put him in a Mercedes this year,

I think he challenges Lewis Hamilton. I think he challenges Max Verstappen. I think he challenges Charles. Clair. He has been phenomenal. That drive back in Brosephiardis, Brazil. Yes, okay, he got a couple of lucky DNF passes, but I think 14 out of his 17 passes were actual moves. Inna McLaren, it's not like he's doing that in a Ferrari, and he's displayed that all

season long. He is fantastic to watch at the moment. I hope it continues. I hope it continues to build, I hope McLaren become a regular top two, top three team and maybe go on to maybe clinch a world title in the next four to five years. Who knows? I generally think they could both win titles. I think they're more likely on right now, science. I think the one to win more titles Norris. Interesting answer. Harry, what are you going for? Well, we now have the title of this video, which is going to be Carlos Science is better than Lewis Hamilton.

Oh, instant dislikes. Sam Sage. Yep, they both definitely have challenging material in them. Norris has shown that in just a year. Signs, you know, that year at Renault, it really hurt him. And if we think back to a year ago, I think all of us would have said, you know, where McClellan were a year ago, where Sines' career was getting, it seemed a bit of a disaster. But now, a year later, he just had his first podium,

and McLaren in a fourth and championship. So, yeah, it's been topsy-turvy for science, but back in his tour or other days, Zadda said he could have been a future champion because he was right over there with the Stappen. Look how highly we praised Vestappen, Dutch people, in the comments. Yes, so Sine definitely has challenging material. I think that's been clear for a while.

And Norris is already showing this year that he could be world champion in the future. Whether they could be multiple world champions, I'm not entirely sure. I think I might go the opposite way and say that Sines has more potential of being the multiple world championship in the moment.

But it's a really tough question because Norris is only, done a year's worth of F1. So it's clearly both have the potential, but who would clinch more? I don't think I could. Denner can answer that one. Yeah. I think it is difficult to say when both drivers are in a car that, okay, it's been the best of the midfield this year, but it's still basically another sport compared to the top three. If you look at, say, Vastappen and Gassley as an example, both do pretty well in Toro Rosso, and you can only find out really where their potential lies when they move to the big team at Red Bull. Obviously, Max Verstappen moves,

win straight away, and you can obviously tell that this guy's going to win championships in the future. On the other hand, Gassley moves up and it just isn't for him, at least at that time, Gazley was not able to respond to the pressure of being in the top team. So signs and Norris aren't quite in the situation yet where we can absolutely definitively say one way or the other. And of course, you say, Orlando Norris, we've only seen a season out of him. He had a stellar junior career. And that stands him in good stead, as does his potential relationship with Mercedes. You know, that could well open some doors that isn't the case for Carlos Sines. That remains to be seen. Norris has impressed this year. I don't think the points tell the entire story.

Signs has been the better driver, I think, out of the two this year. But Norris deserves to be closer to Sons than what he is. He's had some horrible, horrible luck. As has signs to be fair, which just goes to prove that if McLaren hadn't had such reliability issues and pit stop errors, they've secured P4 maybe a few races ago. Yeah, I think I have more doubts about Carlos Sines, which I've defended Carlos Sines a lot over the last few years. I think he's really talented. But is he world championship material? I just don't think he's quite there.

I wouldn't be shocked if he goes on to win a championship. But if you asked me at this moment in time, put money on him winning a championship or not winning a championship. I'm definitely putting money on him not winning a championship. The loss against Nico Holcombberg concerns me a little bit. You rightly say he competed quite well with Vastappen at Toro, but Vastappen did win out of the two. And ultimately, those are the drivers that you'll have to beat if you want to win a championship. Of course, both of their careers have gone a long way since.

that point but I think the point still remains. Whilst Sines obviously has the concerns there, Norris, I don't think there is truly enough time that we can accurately say whether he is going to be a world champion and I think it's marginal. I really think it's marginal. I'm going to go with Norris. But yeah, I think it's close. I wouldn't be surprised if Carlos Sines wins a championship, but again, like I say, wouldn't put money on it. Norris needs to go. to see a bit more out of him. Maybe after 2020, then we can more accurately say, yeah, this guy's going to win a world

championship or probably going to be a midfield driver. Confirmed, we've got a new name for the video. To win a championship, you must first beat Nico Holkenberg. It's true. It's true. Name a world champion who has not beaten Nico Holcomburg. I challenge you. Fangio.

No, how Holkenberg beat Fangio? Sorry, Fangio beat Holkenberg. There you go, folks. Revolutionary stuff from the late breaking boys. What a team that was. Isn't it so nice to see McLaren do well? It's a very awesome feeling. I love it. It's awesome.

Even without the podium, which was an epic moment, it's been a great season. I've grown up loving that team. They were the team that I kind of first fell in love with and I was a child. and it is so lovely to see them have just an inch of success again. Yeah, and you just hope that they're going to kick on. You'd hate to see them in Australia next year, and they qualify P15 and P18 or something. Oh, no, no, no, no.

I really hope that isn't the case. But it's F1, you can never tell. So I think that's all she wrote. Sam, get us out of here. well folks unfortunately no race weekend coming up for us you'll have to just stick with us and to do all the next one i hope you having enjoyed what we talked about saying if you have done please leave a like please subscribe it massively helps us out and we can bring you more silly and fun and interesting content like you have heard here today in the meantime i've been samueless i've been ben hocking i've been harry ed and remember a short view back to the past sorry i had to get that in it's five years since it happened

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