The Majority Report with Sam Seder - 3529 - Republicans Finesse Trump's Big Bad Bill w/ David Dayen
Episode Date: July 1, 2025Fun Half link: https://youtube.com/live/vxQtp_sUyNo The SENR Bill passed this morning, and we are still wading through the muck David Dayen joins us to help in the aforementioned muck wading. In the f...un half we watch some more of Zohran's masterful answers to insane lines of questioning. Tim Pool calls out the Sam for being a little guy who is also the biggest fish in a small pond, or something? I think the summer beanie is dehydrating the pool. All that plus phone calls and a whole lot more. If you are in LA and spot ICE activity, call the Union Del Barrio rapid response hotline as 213 444 6562 If you are in Portland, OR for details on July 4 protest, for details go to http://youwillkill.me Follow us on TikTok here!: https://www.tiktok.com/@majorityreportfm Check us out on Twitch here!: https://www.twitch.tv/themajorityreport Find our Rumble stream here!: https://rumble.com/user/majorityreport Check out our alt YouTube channel here!: https://www.youtube.com/majorityreportlive Gift a Majority Report subscription here: https://fans.fm/majority/gift Subscribe to the ESVN YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/esvnshow Subscribe to the AMQuickie newsletter here: https://am-quickie.ghost.io/ Join the Majority Report Discord! https://majoritydiscord.com/ Get all your MR merch at our store: https://shop.majorityreportradio.com/ Get the free Majority Report App!: https://majority.fm/app Go to https://JustCoffee.coop and use coupon code majority to get 10% off your purchase Check out today's sponsors BABBLE: Babbel.com/Majority for 55% off your subscription. EXPRESS VPN: Get an extra 4 months free. Expressvpn.com/Majority SUNSET LAKE: Use the code LEFTISBEST to save 20% at SunsetLakeCBD.com on all their farm fresh CBD products for people and pets. Follow the Majority Report crew on Twitter: @SamSeder @EmmaVigeland @MattLech Check out Matt’s show, Left Reckoning, on Youtube, and subscribe on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/leftreckoning Check out Matt Binder’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/mattbinder Subscribe to Brandon’s show The Discourse on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/ExpandTheDiscourse Check out Ava Raiza’s music here! https://avaraiza.bandcamp.com/ The Majority Report with Sam Seder – https://majorityreportradio.com/
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Hey, folks. Summer is here. Let's talk about something that doesn't get enough attention, and that is relaxation. Now, people may find this hard to believe, but I have trouble relaxing. So what helps me? Yes.
one of my favorite sponsors
Sunsetlakesebaday.com
if you want to decompress this summer
Sunset Lake Sabaday has you ready to go.
Our friends at Sunset Lake are running a site-wide sale right now,
25% off site-wide,
25% on all products when you check out with the code July 4.
That's the word July and the number 4 with no spaces.
For me, some of my biggest uses of Seba Day to relax.
Well, I use the good night oil every night to get to sleep.
But on the weekends, maybe after a big meal, I'll have one of the pre-rolls.
I know others, Matt.
We'll use some of the key for their bud to mix it in with the other things that help you relax.
It's a great product.
But they also have relaxed gummies.
They have focused gummies too, but that Brian doesn't, Brian's still recovering from how much focus he had.
But they have all sorts of products.
They got gummies.
They got gummies with attach say.
They got gummies.
They got Delta 9.
They have seba-day fudge, sebidate coffee.
You want to have that caffeine, but you don't want to get too racy, seba-day coffee.
Plus, you can relax more easily knowing our friends at Sunset Lake help support causes that we care about, too.
Carceral reform, independent media outlets, they have provided, obviously, big supporters of this program.
They've provided thousands of dollars to strike funds, direct.
to aid for impoverished families on and on and on.
They're a great company.
They've got a great product.
Don't let this summer pass you by de-stress and decompress.
When you head to sunsetlake sabadea.com and use the coupon code July 4,
one word, well, one word and one number.
No spaces.
July 4 to save 25% site-wide.
Sell ends July 7th at midnight.
Eastern time. Get on it. You want to try out these products. See their site for additional terms and conditions. And now, time for the show.
The Majority Report with Sam Cedar. It is Tuesday. July 1st, 2025. My name is Sam Cedar. This is the five-time award-winning majority report. We are broadcasting live.
steps from the
industrially ravaged Gowanus Canal
in the heartland of America
downtown Brooklyn, USA.
On the program today,
reconciliation bill
inching toward final vote
in the Senate.
David Dayn, the American prospect,
will be here to give us the latest.
Meanwhile, this Republican bill,
regardless of what changes
bring about
over the next few minutes
represents the largest cuts
to the safety nut
in decades.
This bill also
eliminates tax incentives
for a whole host of
sustainable energy programs
but late breaking
the excise tax that it actually
added to wind and solar
was just voted out
in an amendment
moments ago.
And while, Musk and Trump, they're at it again.
Let them fight.
British Lancet Journal says USAID cuts may cause over 14 million deaths over the next five years.
14 million additional deaths.
Israel strikes.
a cafe in Gaza, in addition to four schools and two hospitals, that cafe, known to serve
journalists because it's one of the last places in Gaza with reliable internet service.
Last night, Israel killed over 80 people.
Meanwhile, international charities and NGOs call for an end to the Israeli-U.S.-facked AIDS site
because Israel has been using it as a killing feel.
Meanwhile, Russia
now paying
unwitting, or paying young Ukrainians
to be unwitting suicide bombers.
California
law passed
exempts certain housing projects
from CQ, the environmental
major environmental,
major environmental bill, I should say, law in California, Duke loses NIH grants because they use the prefix trans in reference to things like disease transmission and transnational studies.
Lastly, new report, flu shot during pregnancy associated with a 44% reduction in flu for babies under the six months.
months old all this and more on today's majority report and i'm also just being uh told that
uh today is canada's birthday so happy birthday canada perhaps in the fun half uh will give you a show
if you uh call it we'll see um things are moving very very quickly right now in the senate
or I should say
are happening as we speak.
As of this morning
and working through the night
on this record-breaking voterama,
they had over something like 42 votes.
The Senate Republicans
have just,
I'm sorry, literally
three minutes ago,
past
their reconciliation mega bill.
David Dane will be on in a moment or two to give us a sense of what's in it.
I mean, they were writing this thing up until the last minute.
And it will then head to the house where they will have to pass this version or perhaps huddle and work out some type of compromise.
In the House, reports were, as late of last night, House Republicans were basically saying,
how did they manage to make this bill even effing worse?
And there's a bunch of Republican so-called moderates who will almost guaranteed lose their seat if they pass this bill as is.
and we'll see whether or not they will actually vote for it.
But just to give you a sense of how it's going to devastate,
we're talking in the last version of this bill,
almost a trillion dollars cut out of Medicaid.
Upwards to 11 million, almost 12 million people
over the course of the next five years
could lose their health insurance.
We're talking tens of thousands,
if not over 100,000 people will lose their lives.
Millions of people will be kicked off of snap.
It goes on and on.
This pays for
a huge hiring boost to ice, to build the wall at Mexico, to build detention centers for immigrants.
It increases the defense budget by something like $100 billion.
Here is Andy Bashir, Kentucky governor,
on with Jen Sacky on MSNBC last night, talking about this, what it's going to mean for rural America.
Well, first, you are entirely right that this would be absolutely devastating to Kentucky,
but it's going to be devastating to all of rural America.
You mentioned that it is basically going to fire because that's what Donald Trump and everybody who votes for this is doing.
they are firing health care workers across the country, 20,000 in my state.
200,000 people in Kentucky and millions more aren't going to be able to get the treatments they need.
They might not survive.
And those 35 rural hospitals that are at risk of closing, Jen, each and every one of them is the second largest employer in the community that they're in.
So just imagine you're a small business in that community, and the second largest employer goes under all the jobs evaporations.
rate. What happens? Your entire community's economy takes a major hit and all of a sudden
you as a small business, maybe laying some people off as well. But then take the families
and how they're going to be impacted. Whether you're on Medicaid or on private insurance,
if your rural hospital closes, you've got to drive a couple hours just to see the doctor
you used to see in your own community. If your parents get kicked off of their coverage
and they're in long-term care costs, you've got to bring them into your home.
and try to figure out how to keep them alive.
Half of Kentucky's kids are covered under Medicaid.
They lose their coverage, and you were scrambling over that next prescription.
This is going to impact the life of every single American negatively.
It is going to hammer our economy, and it is wrong, and it is mean.
And I cannot believe that people refuse to do their job and represent their people,
that they were sent to Washington to represent, and instead are just pledging fealty.
towards someone pushing such a damaging piece of legislation?
Hard to add to that.
The CBO predicts, and again, this was the scoring that took place last week,
but certainly the bill has not gotten any better.
11.8 million more Americans would become uninsured by early 2030s.
3 million more would not qualify for food stamps.
And this is to say nothing of the tax cuts for billionaires and the tax increases for people
who are living in poverty
I mean it's astonishing
the highest tax cuts
or I should say as a percentage
of the existing tax cuts
happen in the
more or less
$150,000 in up
folks in between will be getting also a reduction in taxes but we'll be paying for it in insurance rates
when you have so many people having to go to the emergency room
you'll be paying for it in terms of I mean a whole host of other you'll be paying for it in so far as energy costs day trip to the hospital
um Medicaid patients may be paying a new $35 copayment
However, you should be buoyed by the fact that there would be 10,000 new immigration and customs enforcement officers who will be getting a $10,000 signing bonus.
$350 billion for Trump's border and national security agenda, $46 billion for the wall, $45 billion for $100,000 for $100,000.
migrant detention facility beds.
There's a tax
credit, however, if you produce
metallurgical coal.
And there are billions
for the Artemis Moon mission and the
exploration of Mars.
Do you see what the
Tribune of the working class, J.D. Vance,
said.
The thing that will
bankrupt this country. Oh, sorry. He called the stuff about Medicaid trivialities.
Manusia, I think, is the specific word. And what we really need to do is get these border
provisions and money to ICE folks through. Over 100,000 people will die because of the
lack of health care. Now, of course, you know, we saw this the first time around in COVID.
Whatever.
here well let's take a in a moment we're going to be talking to david day in about this
like i say the bill literally just passed moments ago um first a word from our sponsor
this episode is sponsored by liquid iv super easy for me to uh
pitch this every day on this program.
I drink at least one of these, particularly in the summer.
And the best part is not only is to keep my whistle wet while I do the show, but I actually
feel it at the end of the day.
Being hydrated is healthy.
It doesn't matter how hot your summer gets.
Liquid IV can help you be hydrated for the adventures ahead.
summer heat means it's the perfect time to try their new arctic raspberry flavor plus
liquid iv has sugar-free solutions powered by liv hydroscience for smart hydration visit liquid
id liquid iv dot com use the code majority rep not majority report majority rep at checkout you
will get 20% off your first order for me i am all in on the um sugar-free versions of
of liquid IV.
They have like a raspberry lemonade.
There's a melon.
There's a lemon.
They're fantastic.
And they come in these little packets.
Super easy to travel with.
If you're traveling,
great for, you know, flying and keep yourself hydrated.
If you're going out,
had a fun night the night before you can find all of their best-selling hydration multipliers
of flavors online and now you can try their newest flavor hydration multiplier arctic raspberry
they got more fun flavors too like cotton candy and popsicle firecracker just one stick plus
16 ounces of water hydrates you better than water alone powered by uh liv hydroscience an
optimize ratio of electrolytes, essential vitamins, and clinically tested nutrients that turn
ordinary water into extraordinary hydration. They have three times the electrolytes of the leading
sports drink, eight essential vitamins, and nutrients always non-GMO, vegan, gluten-free, dairy-free,
and soy-free. Squeeze the most out of your summer with liquid IV. Tear, poor, live more.
go to liquid iv dot com get 20% off your first order with code majority rep
a checkout that's 20% off your first order with the code majority rep
at liquid iv dot com uh let's take a quick break and when we come back
we'll be talking to david day in
Thank you.
You know, I'm going to be able to be.
And so much, you know, and so.
I don't know.
Thank you, so, so, so, so, so, and so, you know, and I'm going to be.
Bye.
We are back, Sam Cedar on the Majority Report.
Emma Vigland out on her honeymoon.
Yeah.
Classic.
Want to welcome back to the program, executive editor of the American Prospect, host of the
wrap-up.
The weekly roundup and also the Organized Money podcast.
Oh, right.
Exactly.
All right.
We'll get that straight.
Got a great one out today.
Organizedmoney.fm.
The Organized Money Podcast is actually,
is one of my rare listens.
I don't listen to many other shows,
but I always learned something from both you and Stoller.
We got a great one today on Spotify.
It's really good.
Folks should check that out.
But in the meantime,
the Senate reconciliation bill no longer called the one big beautiful bill.
He showed them.
He really showed him.
You can't call that.
chuck you can't call that officially that uh just passed and the final passage of the bill was
released about uh 15 minutes ago 900 uh some odd pages i wanted david day on because i know by now
he's read all 900 and whatnot pages of that bill uh david welcome back to the program
fortunately for me it was only 887 oh all right well that's why you got here i was able to get so early
yeah um i spot checked it let's let's say that i think people know the headline story a trillion
dollars it appears to be cut from medicaid it is going to um possibly cause the deaths of
about 110 000 people over the course of the next five 10 years uh who would otherwise have
uh health care it's going to kick uh up to uh 12
million people off of Medicaid by 2034, 3 million off of SNAP.
You factor out the deaths.
It only kicked, you know, 11.9 million people off.
I guess that's true.
So, you know, don't be so harsh, as J.D. Vance would say.
It's only minutia.
Let's not get into the minutia of this stuff.
And then, of course, it assaults like the any type of not so small.
advances we had made to deal with like decarbonizing our economy it is shocking at the last minute
apparently they got rid of the excise tax that would have actually taxed um uh things like yeah
but talk about explain this i've mentioned it many times on the show but we get into like the deficit
and the debt the the senate did something and i don't understand how they got away with doing it uh
without having to sort of fire the parliamentarian which was
was an accounting trick that makes it seem like this is not adding huge trillions of dollars
to the debt. Now, I'm not necessarily so concerned about the debt as I am, it completely obfuscating
what the reality of this bill is. Well, the reality is that they couldn't have passed the bill
without this trick.
So the gimmick is called the current policy baseline.
And what that means is that the Trump tax cuts, as you know, expire at the end of this year.
And one of the big things in this bill extends those Trump tax cuts and makes them permanent.
And that under a current law, because the law is the tax cuts, the tax cuts expire,
and so starting in 2026, they would pick up again.
So under that current law baseline, that would cost almost $3.8 trillion over that 10-year period, right?
So what the Senate Republicans said is that, well, actually, that's just current policy.
We're just extending what was already the policy of the United States.
And so that actually costs $0.00.
And that is the difference in this bill between a bill that will cost, and we don't know about
the final stuff, the killing the excise tax, and there were some other changes.
So we don't know the final number, but at least as of, you know, this weekend, the estimate was it
cost $3.3 trillion over that decade, the bill that would add that much to the debt.
uh now uh with the current policy baseline it looks like it saves 500 billion dollars over that 10 year
period so it's like the functional equivalent of like i make a decision to rent a car for 10 years
and i've been renting that car i've been paying whatever it is uh you know leasing the car i've been
paying 350 bucks a month and then at the end of that 10 years i say well it's not going to cost me
anything to keep paying for this because I've been paying for it already, essentially.
I mean, you know, it does offer opportunities to the other side if they ever get back
into power for Democrats. I mean, if you conceive of this, and actually Republicans were asked
this on the record and they conceded that this would happen, if you passed a bill that said,
we are imposing Medicare for all
for a year or a week
or a day
and then you subsequently pass a bill
that says we are just extending
Medicare for all to make it permanent
that permanence of Medicare for all
would not cost any money
right
so I am I am ready
in the project 2029 that I'm sure
Third Way and, you know, Anne-Marie Slaughter are putting together for the Medicare for All for
one-day Act of 2029, which will then subsequently be followed up by making it permanent and
costing no money.
I mean, that would be encouraging.
Let me ask one more question about the permanence of the tax cuts.
When we say permanent, does that just mean that they're not set to sunset?
I mean, how do they, oh, and in the way that they can make them permanent,
As long as they do them for 10 years, they're permanent.
I mean, that's kind of under the budget scoring that we have.
If you say these tax cuts are now permanent, the way that it's scored, it only looks at the 10-year budget window.
But do they, they don't sunset.
They will not sunset.
And they don't have to sunset because theoretically, they don't exist.
But here's the funny thing.
There are other taxes in this bill that do sunset.
All of Trump's campaign promise taxes, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on
interest on auto loans.
It's not no tax on Social Security.
It's a deduction for people over the age of 65.
All of those are four years.
They're only there for four years, right?
So they could then use this gimmick again if Republicans are still in power and say,
oh, well, current law is no tax on tips, so we'll just extend that and it won't cost any money.
So they are simultaneously using a current law baseline to shrink the perceived cost of certain taxes
and using a current policy baseline to eliminate the cost of certain taxes in the course
of the same bill.
Let's talk about the AI ban.
Let's talk about anything else.
Okay.
Well, I mean, I guess, you know, the AI ban is gone.
Yeah, that was a good thing.
The ban on the ability to regulate AI is gone.
The Obama, just be clear.
It was going to be a 10-year moratorium on regulation of AI at the state level.
And the way they were going to do this is they had a pot of money that states wouldn't be able to access unless they agreed to this moratorium.
And there was a deal attempted by, you know, some senators on the Republican side who disagreed with this.
They shrunk it for a bit.
And then that deal blew up.
And then there was a vote last night to strip this moratorium from the bill.
And it passed 99 to one.
so big tech lobbyists who were pushing for this very heavily and hard uh obviously miscalculated
severely uh that they would be able to muscle this through because literally almost every senator
voted against it in the end yeah that's uh not very close so that is that is gone what are the
other what are the things in the bill as you can tell right now that are going to be uh problems for
the house now when this goes to the house are they going to do a conference or is the house
like sort of just decides whether they're going to try. I mean, Mike Johnson's speaker is going to try
to pass this immediately. In fact, there is as is. There is a rules committee session today.
And House members are expected back to Washington tomorrow to start voting on this. And,
you know, in a perfect world, Johnson would have this on the president's desk by July 4th.
Now, is he going to be able to do that?
Well, there are several things that the House Freedom Caucus had said
were absolutely not going to pass that are in this Senate bill.
The first one is the House isn't going by this current policy baseline gimmick.
And so they see red ink in this bill more than what they wanted in the bill.
So the House in their budget resolution said, we can have no more than $2.5 trillion in tax cuts more than the spending cuts in the bill.
If that relationship isn't maintained, you have to reduce the tax cuts.
You have to change those in some ways so that they aren't as costly.
And that is not in here.
That violates the budget resolution.
And more important, it violates the promise that was made to the House Freedom Caucus that this would happen.
And that's about 30 people.
The House can only lose, Republicans only lose three votes in the House to pass this.
So that's one, is that it's too much taxation or too much, not enough spending cuts.
The second is on the energy provisions.
So you mentioned that there were these changes to the clean energy provisions.
that made them very, very harsh and would have made it almost impossible to produce a solar
or wind project in this country.
Because not only were the tax credits phased out very quickly, but there was this new excise
tax on solar and wind projects that would have increased the cost of building a solar
or wind project to a degree that you couldn't ever penciled out.
Those were taken out at the last minute at the end of the bill.
I think also to get Lisa Murkowski's vote.
Lisa Murkowski got a bounty of things, a bunch of gifts, including tax breaks for whaling captains in Alaska and tax breaks for Alaskan fishing villages.
This is literally in the bill.
But another thing she actually wanted is to weaken the phase out of these tax credits.
So the tax on solar and wind is out.
As long as you begin construction on a solar or wind project in the next year, you get the tax credit.
You have to have that in service by 2027.
So there's going to actually, if this bill passes, be a gold rush of solar and wind projects trying to get in under the wire within a year of passage of this enactment of the bill.
However, this is exactly the thing that the House Freedom Caucus didn't want.
As a condition of them passing the bill in the House, they wanted.
the energy tax credits much, much harsher. And they've rolled back to being weaker to a degree
in the Senate version. So you put those two things together, and that's on the hardline deficit hawk side.
That's going to be a problem. And then the Medicaid cuts are still much more harsh in the Senate
bill than they were in the House bill. Now, there is a rural hospital fund that was doubled
in the final version from 25 billion to 50 billion, but that's still a fraction of the nearly
$1 trillion in Medicaid cuts over 10 years that are going to be in this bill. And there are some
House moderates who have said these Medicaid cuts are bridged too far. I can't vote for this
bill. So you put that all together. They can only lose three votes. Tom Massey is one. He's not
going to vote for this bill. Let's say they get one, you know, they minimize their losses to maybe
one guy. There's a guy, David Valadeo, who's in the Central Valley of California. His district
has the second highest concentration of Medicaid recipients in the country. He's probably not voting
for this bill. So that's two. So you can only lose one more and pass the bill on the House side,
which means you have to accommodate the Freedom Caucus and make sure that they're,
they pass this version of the bill.
Ultimately, what this comes down to is,
who's going to defy Donald Trump?
Massey will, because he's done it all the time.
Valdeo voted for Trump's impeachment.
He doesn't mind going against him.
But who else is going to?
Who else is going to say to Donald Trump,
I'm not passing your agenda
because I don't like this part or that part.
They're going to have to prove to me that they're willing to do that.
I got a couple of questions.
So there's 30 members of the House Freedom Caucus.
If they had put down a real hard line on this, if they accept this, there's no point to them, right?
I mean, I'm just like, I'm trying to give people some sense of, like, how they can do this.
If you live in a red district with the House Freedom Caucus, your congressperson does not know.
what your politics are, I would call that office and go, I put you in there for fiscal sanity.
And if you could actually vote for this, there's no point in having a freedom caucus.
I'd like to see the delta of majority report viewers who live in hard right conservative districts.
But maybe there are some.
Oh, we have a lot.
You'd be surprised.
In fact, those are some of the most intense audience members because they have to, they
have to basically be inside. There's another thing that those Freedom Caucus members have to think about,
and that is Elon Musk. So Elon Musk is very much against this bill, partially on the energy grounds,
but also on the fact that it doesn't cut enough spending for his liking. Like he is kind of a hard right
tea partier at this point, Elon Musk. And he is the world's richest man, and he has a lot of money
to fund primary challenges against Freedom Caucus members if they don't adhere to the deal
that they set up just a few months ago.
So when you call those Freedom Caucus House members, say you are personally writing Elon Musk
and asking him to fund a primary challenger to them.
In terms of the House moderates, the COLA stuff that they wanted seems to be more or less
close to what they wanted.
They wanted $40,000.
You're talking about salt?
Salt, I'm sorry.
Salt.
So, yeah, as far as the state and local tax deduction is concerned,
they again,
to make this look cheaper,
did a partial change
to that deduction cap.
So the Salt Caucus wanted to change from,
you can write off $10,000 of your state and local taxes
on your federal taxes.
They wanted to up that to $40,000.
The ultimate deal is that is true for only five years.
So once again, they use this current law baseline to make those look cheaper,
even though they could now, the precedent and assent,
they can come back and make it permanent and it would cause $0, right?
So one member of the Salt Caucus, this guy, Nicola Loda in New York,
said, I don't agree with that.
I'm not going to vote for that.
But we kind of, you know, I'm a little skeptical of him as well,
whether he'll actually defy Trump on that.
And those are, now, the three votes that they can afford to lose,
is Jerry Connolly's seat filled?
It's not filled.
They had a primary.
The general election doesn't happen, I believe, until September.
So it's only three votes they can afford to lose,
even without Connolly's vote in the House?
even without Raul Grijalva,
even without there was another member
of the House Democrats who died,
even with all three of those gone.
They can only lose three votes.
If they were there,
they would only need to be able to lose two votes.
It would be nice if we didn't have so many people
in the Democratic caucus pass away.
Yeah.
What do you think the chances are?
I mean, it goes over to the House.
It feels like,
that this is going to happen,
like that it's unlikely
that anybody's going to buck Donald Trump.
I mean, as I said, they have to show me
that they're willing to do that
before I would believe it.
So maybe it'll happen.
If the Freedom Caucus
actually believed in the principles
they espouse, this bill would not pass, right?
But I don't believe that they do.
I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I'm willing to, to, to, to, the, I'm, I, the, I, the, the, uh, the, the, uh, the, the, uh, the, the umbrella to allow reconciliation to happen. There was a sense by all of this sort of, like, conventional, wisdom people, like, the top, like, the top.
sort of like Democrats, that this was never going to pass, that they weren't going to be able
to do it. And they were surprised that Johnson got it across the threshold. And I think to a certain
extent, the threat of Elon Musk primaring was underestimated as an incentive factor.
Well, here's what I'd say. Going into 2025, Mike Johnson had no track record of legislative
success. And we were coming out of a two-year session where the caucus was so fractured and so
divided that they couldn't even do basic things like hang on to a speaker. So there was some reason
to believe that it was going to be problematic for Johnson to get the herd of cats in line.
So I don't disagree with that. I think that it was certainly the conventional wisdom. And there was
good reason for it. There was actual evidence for that. What I think was underplayed is the degree
to which the Republican Party is just Donald Trump's party. And if Donald Trump wants something,
he's likely to get it. And so that has really, that has informed this entire process.
Once they pass this bill, it's basically done, right? I mean, their legislative session. I mean,
I guess there's the 2026 budget, but it's largely...
There's a $2.26 budget.
There's, you know, the crypto bill only passed the Senate,
so they've got to figure out what to do in the House with that.
There are some other things here and there that need to be done.
But yes, this was the entire agenda.
Now, one thing that's being talked about,
and this is particularly as an enticement to the Freedom Caucus,
is Mike Johnson has started floating,
oh, we'll do another reconciliation bill in 2020,
And we'll get you that the, you know, you don't like that there aren't enough spending cuts in
this one. That one will do all spending cuts. And, and we'll get you the spending cuts you need
in the 2026 version of the reconciliation bill. And that may be enough to get the Freedom Caucus
on board. They'll say, oh, well, we're going to do this next year. Now, whether they actually
do it next year, who knows? I was going to say, are they aware that 2026 is an election year? But it does,
it does feel like the Republicans know that, I mean, the way that they govern, the way that they
legislate, I should say, they do it like they know they are going to get a voted out of office no
matter what in the next election. And so we're going to do as much as we can. If you hear from
some liberals, they'll say they're voting like they think they're never going to be voted out of office.
and I don't necessarily subscribe to that.
It's sort of a bit conspiratorial for me
that they're not going to hold elections next year
or something like that.
But I think your way of framing it is more correct
that when Republicans get in office,
they realize they have limited political capital
and they start spending it as fast as they can.
Anything else we left on the table?
I mean, this is going to be like a real world,
disaster for many people is there any what was the last piece of legislation that i will tell you the
the strangeness around the murkowski deal so uh murkowski got she got those little tax credits and
everything but she got two big things which was to in this was in the original deal to increase
uh the federal share of medicaid for alaska and to waive uh what is called the cost sharing of the snap program
which is more commonly known as food stamps for Alaska,
whereby the state of Alaska would have to pay into a federal share
to maintain that program.
Typically, SNAP is entirely paid for at the federal level.
This would be the first time states would have to participate,
and states don't have that money,
and it would lead to severe cuts to the SNAP program.
So she wanted both of those.
The parliamentarian threw both of those out,
and they worked really hard to get the Medicaid thing back in, and it didn't work, the parliamentarian.
Literally, this was on C-SPAN.
The parliamentarian was standing at the desk with a handwritten amendment, and there was a debate happening between staffers of the Republican and Democratic caucus, and the parliamentarian said, no, we can't do that Medicaid thing.
However, they did get this cost sharing waiver for Alaska, but it's not just for Alaska because they, the parliamentarian threw it out thinking, well, this is just a policy for one state. This is so you can get that.
So they expanded that cost sharing to the 10 states with the highest payment error rates in SNAP. They get more time to before they do the cost sharing.
cost sharing. That includes New York. That includes New Jersey. It includes Maryland. It includes
Massachusetts. It includes Oregon. A host of blue states now get this benefit along with Alaska
because they needed it to buy Murkowski's vote. Now, so here's this program. The program is
supposed to be we're going to make it, make SNAP more efficient. So we're going to give you an incentive
if you have low error rates in your program and we're going to punish you if you have high error
rates in your program. However, now, because the high error rates get an exemption,
you're only punishing the people in the states in the middle now in terms of error rates.
The people on the low side don't have to pay the federal cost share. The people on the high side
don't have to pay the federal cost share. Only the states in the middle have to pay, which makes
no sense whatsoever. And as Amy Klobuchar said on the Senate floor, this is an incentive for more
errors in SNAP. Because it gets you into the top 10. It's almost like you want to,
you're going to throw the last couple of games of the season. So you get a higher lottery pick.
Yeah. There's tanking going on now. So it's a, this is the kind of backwards lawmaking that we've
engaged in in order to, for Republicans pass this bill. What was the name of?
In, I think it was during the Obama years, the Golden Gate giveaway or whatever it was.
Well, there was the Cornhusker kickback.
That's what it was.
The Cornhusker, this is what that is.
It is what that is.
And I call it the Alaska Gold Rush, but you could call it the Kodiak kickback, I assume.
But the point is that Murkowski, look, I mean, there is a world in which every senator should be fighting for their state.
And, you know, Josh Hawley looks like an idiot.
He didn't get anything from Missouri the way that Murkowski did for Alaska.
All of these other senators didn't fight as hard for their states as Murkowski did.
And, you know, if they did, maybe we wouldn't have any of these Medicaid cuts or snap cuts.
Where does Josh Holley's, you know, a perspective on a place him on the populist meter?
I think he's forfeited that completely by voting for this bill.
He came out and gave this, this whiny speech about how, you know, this shouldn't be what the Republican Party is.
We shouldn't be cutting Medicaid, even though he's voting to cut Medicaid.
And that's a real leadership.
That's called leadership.
Now his theory is, oh, I can cut off some of these taxes at the pass or cut off some of these Medicaid cuts down the road.
And good luck to you on that one.
Josh. Well, he wanted to be able to make the changes from the inside and be one of the people who are voting. David, Dan, thanks so much for hopping on and walking us through this. It's, um, the folks should be checking out the prospect on a daily basis to get, um, uh, get this information in a way that nobody else has. Thanks so much. I really appreciate it. Thank you. Bye.
All right, folks, before we go into the fun half of the program, let's put up a Washington phone number.
Again, this is one of those situations where if you live in a Republican district, you can actually, you know, make it make their vote a little bit more difficult.
If you live in a Freedom Caucus or House Freedom Caucus district, you can make their vote a little more difficult.
You can say, honestly, I'm going to write Elon Musk and hope that he finances your primary.
They have made, they have put their flag in the ground as, um,
as stalwart defenders of the deficit or debt,
and now you can tell them you know what's happening.
Do we have a number?
Yeah, I'm looking for, I'm looking for a good 2.202-2-24-31-21.
I'm looking for a good way to display it, but that's the number.
202-224-321-21.
That's 202-224-31.
also we should tell you that the results or put it on a chiron okay we'll put up that number
and we should also tell you the results of the final results of the New York mayoral race
is out and it would appear
It looked like Mamdani won by seven percentage points, the first round of voting.
You'll recall he did not cross the 50% threshold.
So therefore, the final results would have to go into the ranked choice voting process.
And it appears, sadly, for Andrew Cuomo, that he lost in the second round by over 10 percentage points.
Is that right, guys?
56 to 44, I saw.
It's exactly 12.
If I believe that if I'm counting correctly, it is, that is 12, 12 points.
Put this.
What that's going to do, it doesn't change anything.
And this, again, is the number that you can contact your, your congressperson.
This is the Senate, but it's the same.
name number.
202-224-3-1-21.
And who should be calling that is if you are in a Republican district, I mean, it's
important to call your Democratic congresspeople to tell them they better take that vote.
They better show up there.
Nobody should be taken an early July 4th vacation.
Make sure you're there for that vote.
Apparently, Jeffries is doing a caucus meeting this afternoon.
But if you're in a Republican district, you can add some pressure to them.
If it's a so-called moderate, tell them these cuts to Medicaid are absolutely unconscionable.
And if it's in a freedom caucus, tell them that there's not enough cuts.
This hinky math where they're pretending like the baseline is different than it is, you see right through
that. And in fact, right now you're
sitting down to write a handwritten letter
to Elon Musk,
begging him to finance a primary
of your
congressperson.
Meanwhile,
Zoran Mondani in the second round
wins by 12 percentage points
in this mayoral election.
The only thing that I think
like the implications of this are
if you're Andrew
Cuomo, and particularly there's a New York
I think New York Magazine article that's come out that shows just how lazy Cuomo is and incompetent.
But if you are, if you're a big donor, you're not going to look at these numbers and be encouraged that you're going to get your money.
There's going to be any type of return on investment.
So that's pretty good stuff.
we're going to head to the fun half folks a reminder it's your support that makes this show possible
you can become a member by going to join the majority report dot com when you do you only get the
show free of commercials but you also get the fun half also don't forget just coffee dot co-op
fair trade coffee hot chocolate use the coupon code majority get 10% off they've got all sorts
of different coffees there and they're a co-op they really support
their farmers, great company, great coffee, just coffee.coff, you can get the majority report
blend there. It's a wonderful conversation stutter. Folks over, you bring the coffee bag on
the platter in which you serve the coffee. Also, don't forget, AM Quicky. Amquicky.com.
get the news and a very easy to read, quick digest every morning to your email box,
a.m.quicky.com. Matt, what's happening on Left Reckoning?
Yeah, tonight on Left Reckoning talking Zoran again with Ashik Sadiki of the DSA. So I'll look forward
to that. And then also talking about another type of Democrat, Colin Allred, who has announced
he's running again in Texas to make a lot of money for consultants again. So check this out tonight,
patreon.com slash left reckoning.
quick break
fun half
three months from now
six months from now
nine months from now
and I don't think it's going to be the same
as it looks like in six months from now
and I don't know if it's necessarily
going to be better six months from now
than it is three months from now
but I think around 18 months out
we're going to look back and go like wow
what
what is that going on
it's nuts
wait a second hold
on for hold on for a second Emma welcome to the program hey fun
Matt who fun what is up everyone
no me key you did it fun
let's go brandon let's go brandon
Bradley you want to say hello sorry to disappoint everyone I'm just a random guy
it's all the boys today fundamentally false no I'm sorry
Stop talking for a second.
Let me finish.
Where is this coming from, dude?
But dude, you want to smoke this?
Seven, eight.
Yes.
Hi, this is me?
Yes.
Is this me?
Is it me?
It is you.
It is me?
Oh, is it's me?
I think it is you.
Who is you?
No sound.
every single freaking day what's on your mind sports we can discuss free markets and we can discuss
capitalism i'm gonna just know what libertarians they're so stupid though common sense says of course
gobbled e gook we fucking nailed him so what's 79 plus 21 challenge met i'm positively quivering
i believe 96 i want to say 857 210 35 501 1 1⁄3 8800 911 for instance 3 400 dollars 1900000
five, four, three trillion dollars sold.
It's a zero-sum game.
Actually, you're making anything less.
But let me say this.
Poop.
You're going to call it satire.
Sam goes satire.
On top of it all, my favorite part about you is just like every day, all day, like everything you do.
Without a doubt.
Hey, buddy, we see you.
All right, folks, folks, folks.
It's just the week.
weeded out, obviously.
Yeah, sundown guns out.
I don't know.
But you should know.
People just don't like to entertain ideas anymore.
I have a question.
Who cares?
Our chat is enabled, folks.
I love it.
I do love that.
Look, got a jump.
You got to be quick.
I get a jump.
I'm losing it, bro.
Two o'clock.
already late, and the guy's being a dick.
So screw him.
Sent to a gulaw?
Outrage.
Like, what is wrong with you?
Love you, bye.
Love you.
Bye-bye.