The Majority Report with Sam Seder - 3587 - ICE Whistle Blown, Sheinbaum's Gamble and State of the Union w/ Alexander Avina
Episode Date: February 24, 2026It's News Day Tuesday on the Majority Report On today's program: Former ICE lawyer-turned-whistleblower Ryan Schwank testified at a hearing held by congressional Democrats, detailing how he rece...ived secret orders to train ICE recruits to violate the Constitution. Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) tweets picture of cartel members wearing masks and captions with "cartel hitmen wear masks. Leftists aren't complaining". Democratic senators dunk on Lee's post by pointing out the hypocrisy of ICE agents wearing masks. Alexander Avina, historian and associate professor at Arizona State University joins the program to discuss the situation in Mexico after the killing of CJNG cartel leader, El Mencho. Tad Stoermer of Resistance History releases a video that critiques the Democrats bizarre choice of Colonial Williamsburg as the location for Gov. Spanberger's response to tonight's State of the Union address. In the Fun Half: Tucker Carlson presses Mike Huckabee on his claim that Israel has a "biblical right" to the land from the Euphrates to Nile. The leader of Israel's "opposition" party expresses the same beliefs as Huckabee regarding biblical deeds to the Middle East. Tucker also debates with Huckabee how much the Trump administration values the opinions of American's considering the overwhelming rejection of a potential war with Iran. Gavin Newsom - Governor of California and sleezy magician - says democrats need to be more "culturally normal". all that and more To connect and organize with your local ICE rapid response team visit ICERRT.com The Congress switchboard number is (202) 224-3121. You can use this number to connect with either the U.S. Senate or the House of Representatives. Follow us on TikTok here: https://www.tiktok.com/@majorityreportfm Check us out on Twitch here: https://www.twitch.tv/themajorityreport Find our Rumble stream here: https://rumble.com/user/majorityreport Check out our alt YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/majorityreportlive Gift a Majority Report subscription here: https://fans.fm/majority/gift Subscribe to the AMQuickie newsletter here: https://am-quickie.ghost.io/ Join the Majority Report Discord! https://majoritydiscord.com/ Get all your MR merch at our store: https://shop.majorityreportradio.com/ Get the free Majority Report App!: https://majority.fm/app Go to https://JustCoffee.coop and use coupon code majority to get 10% off your purchase Check out today's sponsors: NUTRAFOL: Get $10 off your first month's subscription + free shipping at Nutrafol.com when you use promo code TMR10 FAST GROWING TREES: Get 20% off your first purchase. FastGrowingTrees.com/majority NAKED WINESL: To get 6 bottles of wine for $39.99, head to NakedWines.com/MAJORITY and use code MAJORITY for both the code AND PASSWORD. SUNSET LAKE: Use code FlowerPower to save 30% on all CBD smokables at SunsetLakeCBD.com Follow the Majority Report crew on Twitter: @SamSeder @EmmaVigeland @MattLech On Instagram: @MrBryanVokey Check out Matt's show, Left Reckoning, on YouTube, and subscribe on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/leftreckoning Check out Matt Binder's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/mattbinder Subscribe to Brandon's show The Discourse on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/ExpandTheDiscourse Check out Ava Raiza's music here! https://avaraiza.bandcamp.com
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Now time for the show.
It is Tuesday.
February 24th,
2006.
My name is Sam Cedar.
This is the five-time award-winning majority report.
We are broadcasting live steps from the industrially ravaged Gowanus Canal in the heartland of America, downtown Brooklyn, USA.
On the program today, Alexander Avina.
Historian and associate professor at Arizona State University, contributing writer to the foreign exchange.
newsletter on the situation in Mexico. Meanwhile, in this country, Trump to deliver the state of the
union tonight as his polling is at an all-time low. DOJ removed Epstein files related to Trump
sexually abusing minors. This story is just about breaking big now. Ex-ice whistleblower testified
that ICE lied to Congress, among other horrible things.
Trump's still vacillating over an attack on Iran,
claims his top general says it'll be easy.
His top general leaks that it won't.
The first independent main Senate poll we've had in a while,
UNH poll reports that Graham Platner up 64% to 26%
over Mills.
Also outpolling Susan Collins, but we'll see about that.
Trump regime takes next steps to dismantle the Department of Education.
And the United States kills another three in a Caribbean boat strike that is now 137 people
we've executed for boating.
One and four people are behind on their student loans.
and Janine Piro gives up trying to prosecute Democratic lawmakers over their video.
All this and more on today's majority report.
Welcome, ladies and gentlemen.
Thanks so much for joining us.
Newsday Tuesday.
Newsday Tuesday, says Emma Viglin.
Hello, hello, hello.
Brian, flying solo on the board today.
Yeah, I had to restart the app.
So if you're having problems with the app, it should be up and running now.
restart the app.
I'd restart all our streams
and the app took a second to catch up
to the restart, but it's working now.
So just close it and reopen it
and it will be working fine.
Well, my earpiece
stop working in the middle of head.
Oh, it's back. Oh, my God.
And it's so loud.
Okay, kind of turn it down.
We're getting a new one.
We're getting a new one, right?
It's coming a few days.
I mean, you know, we've got to finance it.
Yes, right.
It's been approved.
Talking to the bank for a business loan.
Four different installments.
on $30.
Yeah, I mean, we're working on it.
Okay, good.
Emma was very, very nervous about bringing it up.
I don't like asking you to buy anything new
because you give me crap about it every time.
Oh, did you want a new one?
Yeah.
Well, it'll be new to you.
Maybe the duct tape.
We just need some more duct tape and I'll figure it out.
It'll be new to you.
Okay, great.
Let's put it that way.
Ominous.
A lot to get to today.
We're going to be doing.
a little bit of a state of the union, a primer.
And it looks as of now, the way our coverage is going to go is basically going to be me
in my apartment, maybe half drunk.
Honestly, if his speech is longer than like 45 minutes, it's going to be a problem.
I'm more interested in how the Democrats respond, and we're going to talk about that
later in the program.
Yesterday,
a former ICE agent
who was apparently
the whistleblower
who exposed
the internal memo
wherein ICE was communicating
to its operatives
that it no longer had to abide
by the Fourth Amendment
and that they did not need judicial
warrant.
to crash into people's homes.
He is now a former ICE agent.
He may have been at the time.
His name is Ryan Schwank.
He was not in an official congressional hearing,
but rather a hearing held by congressional Democrats.
I think they get the meeting rooms.
They don't have subpoena power, I don't believe,
because they don't, they're not in the majority.
But this is also a preview of, in the event that the Democrats take the House in the fall,
we're going to be seeing a lot more of this type of thing.
And they're going to be able to bring in witnesses who are going to be a little bit hostile.
This one obviously wanted the opportunity to speak about what he saw at DHS.
Yes, here is clip number two.
A week ago, so that I could speak to you today,
I am here because I am duty-bound to report
the legally required training program at the ICE Academy
is deficient, defective, and broken.
Five months ago, I was asked to teach the law to new cadets
at the ICE Academy in Glenco, Georgia,
where ICE is training its new,
inexperienced recruits.
I volunteered, those without law enforcement training,
I volunteered to take on this assignment
based on my experience in law enforcement oversight,
including at the state and local level prior
to my work with ICE.
On my first day, I received secretive orders
to teach new cadets to violate the Constitution
by entering homes without a judicial warrant.
For the last five months, I watched ICE
dismantle the training program.
cutting 240 hours of vital classes from a 584-hour program.
Classes that teach the Constitution, our legal system,
firearms training, the use of force, lawful arrests,
proper detention, and the limits of officers' authority.
For example, they ceased all of the legal instructions
regarding use of force.
This means that cadets are not
taught what it means to be objectively reasonable,
the very standard which the law requires them to meet
when deciding whether or not to use deadly force.
Our jobs as instructors are to teach them so well
that they can make split-second decisions
about what they can and cannot do in life or death situations.
Yet in the name of churning out an endless stream of officers,
DHS leadership has dismantled the academic
and practical tests that we need to know
if cadets can safely and lawfully perform their job.
All to satisfy an administration demanding
they train thousands of new officers
before the end of the year.
DHS told the public that new cadets receive
all the training they need to perform their duties,
that no critical material or standards have been cut.
This is a lie.
Lie.
This is important to understand.
First off, we should say that the two ICE murderers that have the most acclaim, we know less about the other people who have been killed in ICE detention.
But the two murders that have been caught on videotape who work for ICE, both of them are longtime ICE employees.
So they are not part of this next wave who have not even received.
even the training that the first guys who used excessive force did.
But people should understand this.
The way that we had the torture scandal during the Iraq invasion and subsequent to that,
was not that these soldiers were ordered to torture,
although in some instances they got explicit green lights,
but essentially what happened was all the shackles were removed all of the discipline all of the
explicit um warnings against torture all the explicit um orders against torture were removed that's all
it takes and then just pressured to get results and that's exactly the dynamic that we're seeing here
with ice we're not going to give you any constraints other than we need x amount
of arrests and we need X amount of intimidation. And X amount of officers to fill the large
quotas that he's talking about because it's instructive to view ICE not as a law enforcement
agency that needs to have a certain number of personnel to do what it needs to do, but as a
paramilitary force that backs up the fascist administration and is a both, it's going to serve as an
intimidating tactic at polling sites. I think we should anticipate that ahead of November.
But also as just, you know, if a paramilitary force that can go onto the streets, brutalize
citizens on behalf of the administration, what this, he was a former instructor down in Georgia,
this guy. He testified there that he was one of the two whistleblowers that received,
that came out and said that they'd received those administrative, secret orders regarding the
administrative warrants, meaning we've spoken about this before on the show, but they call them
administrative warrants. They're not a warrant. It's essentially a memo that says you can violate
people's Fourth Amendment rights and go into their homes. Warrants have to be signed by judges.
Even the ones that are like, you know, basically rubber stamped like FISA under the war on terror,
at least that had to be signed by a judge. It's not a warrant. They call it a warrant. It's not a
warrant. And it just said, hey, you can enter private homes and violate the Fourth Amendment regardless
and made it so that those orders were only verbal. So there was no paper trail. I mean,
they're obvious about how criminal this is. And then he mentioned there that basically ICE eliminated
240 hours from their mandatory 580 hour training program. And they specifically remove courses
dealing with the use of force. So, and this is for the new recruits that we know.
they're culling from essentially
proud boys and Patriot
Front and all of the biggest MAGA
supporters that are excited to sign
up for ICE. Those are the people that
receive the least amount of trading.
And to your most important point
about this, the
veterans of DHS
and ICE still killed American citizens
on our streets on video in front
of everybody. So this
should not be used to bolster
the Corey Booker arguments in
the DHS
funding fight about more training and more body cameras.
This should just underscore how horrible this new crop of ICE agents is going to be and what's
coming ahead of us.
It also shows what the intention to use these.
I mean, a lot of people wondered, like, you know, why would you go to Minneapolis in the
dead of winter?
And, you know, obviously there was a compulsion to go there because you had a, you have
a large Somali population.
Donald Trump was really jazzed up about his racism was in high gear in terms of Ilhan Omar.
Chris Rufo, the CRT guy, the big Republican operative had already started to seed the story of al-Shabaab, a terrorist organization tied in with the Medicare fraud story, et cetera, et cetera.
So there's a lot of things there.
But as a, but from a almost like a military perspective, invading the coldest region of the country at the coldest time of the year does not make a lot of sense unless you want to make the deployments that everyone else is going to have come the summer seem a lot easier.
And so, you know, summer is they are aiming for the,
the months from like May or June through the election.
That is what's going on here.
And so understand the lack of training is not because they're in a hurry.
The lack of training is because they don't want these people to have constraints or any type of
discipline that might come with training.
So that's all deliberate.
Meanwhile, one of the things, and we're going to be talking in a moment to Alexander Avina about the historical context of what we're seeing in Mexico and what we're seeing go on right now after the killing of El Mancho, who was one of, if not, I think Mexico's most wanted man.
and what we're seeing across large swaths of Mexico in terms of the Jalisco cartel striking back.
One of the things we've seen from the right is them saying, like, this is what DHS is doing.
It's keeping this element out of the country, which of course is absurd, because we have seen ICE in action.
And unless this cartel in Jalisco is made up of.
of moms and dads and teenage kids or people who are working on roofs or, you know, trying to get day job, whatever it is, or American citizens, for that matter.
It's obviously not the same people, but they are so desperate to make this connection.
Here is Senator Mike Lee.
Let's just see Mike Lee's tweet first.
If you can just zoom in on that one.
It's in all of them, but I want to just.
focus on his tweet first, where he writes, um, okay, here it is.
Mike Lee shows a picture of some, uh, Jaliscoe cartel, um, wearing masks at a gas station,
pouring gas on the ground, and then they ultimately lighted.
I've seen this video.
It's, it's pretty disturbing.
Uh, but Mike Lee writes, Cartel Hitman wear masks.
Leftists aren't complaining.
Now, that's not the point I think you want to make, buddy.
Well, and it's it's not the point he wanted to make.
So based.
And many senators not known for their crap posting were able to dunk on Mike Lee.
But this shows, like how this is senator.
It shows how twisted their mentality is.
Put up this, let's do the series of it.
Brian Schatz wrote in, Mike, I would like ICE to have the same standards as
a local police department, not cartel hitmen.
I mean, to be fair to Shats, he might be the best Senate poster of all of the Democrats,
so he got him here up against base, Mike Lee.
But even Chris Murphy?
Yes.
Oh, dear, Mike, I literally couldn't make our argument better than you do.
The bad guys wear masks.
The good guys don't.
And here's the big one.
And, oh, buddy, retire, Mike Lee.
Yes.
Cartel hitmen wear masks.
That's why ICE shouldn't.
Nailed it.
Nailed it.
Nailed it.
Nailed it, says Chuck Schumer.
Oh, that's literally like getting knocked out by the smallest kid on the playground.
You've got to change schools.
But even in that tweet, like, that's why ICE shouldn't.
So maybe you guys should suggest it.
Yeah.
Like I feel I'm uncomfortable with them wearing masks.
tell you how to live.
It's like even in that
moment, it's a... Pull your pants up and take your mask off.
There's a softness to it. Yeah.
We got to go
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And then we'll be talking to
Alexander Avina.
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Quick break.
right back with Alexander Avina,
historian, associate professor at Arizona State University.
We are back, Sam Cedar, Emma Vigland, on the majority report.
It is a pleasure to welcome back to the program, Alexandria Avina.
He is a historian, associate professor at Arizona State University,
contributing writer to the Foreign Exchange newsletter.
Alexander, thanks so much for joining us.
We have seen across Halisco,
I mispronounced it before, which is typical of the way I do things.
We have seen a lot of explosions, a lot of attacks, a building set on fire.
Give us just some background that, historically speaking, that has taken us to this moment
where we are watching Shinebomb respond to what appears to be U.S.
pressure that comes in a couple of different forms.
Just give us that historical context.
Yeah, thanks for having me on again.
I think the immediate context, about three, four, maybe even five years of the GOP making
threats by invading Mexico.
We're doing unilateral military interventions in Mexico against the so-called cartels.
Trump, once Trump won, he made it, he made those pressure tactics even more explicit.
He has this weird thing where he's, he likes President Gladius Seenbaum.
Like he speaks pretty well of her, but then he'll say things like, well, the cartels run
Mexico and she's too scared to confront them.
And then in the context of what just happened in Venezuela at the end of last year with
the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro using the specter of narco-terrorism to justify
that illegal action, I think all of these things,
are being taken into account by the current Mexican government.
And that probably had some sort of influence or factor in the decision to go after the head of the Khalisco cartel on Sunday.
Nemezio Seguera-Servantes, also known as El Mencho.
The violence that we saw on Sunday, that's pretty much a narco script that we've seen in the last 15, 20 years,
when a big leader is either captured or killed, his gun slingers will go out and provoke chaos.
you know, as a projection of violence, as a projection of force to perhaps their audience being not just Mexican citizens,
but other rival drug trafficking organizations that may want to move during a moment that they sense of weakness.
The unprecedented scale of it, though, was that it happened in 15 states.
We had something like more than 250, they call them narco blokeos, like where they block roads,
entrances to towns and cities by burning, by lighting vehicles on fire.
I think 25 National Guard soldiers were killed less in the military operation to take out
El Mencho, but more in trying to put down the narco blokeos in the state of Halisco.
So today, I mean, things seem to have calmed down, but in places like Halisco and Mishuacan
in the state of Guerrero, they closed schools yesterday statewide.
I don't know if they've reopened them today.
So those tactics we've seen before, but the scale of it was, I mean, I think does show
the type of power that the Halisco cartel can wield.
Well, it also shows the power, I would say, of the Mexican state, right? And I think that was also part of the calculus here. If you could just explain how Morina Amlo's party, Claudia Scheinbaum's predecessor, and then Scheinbaum herself, how that party maybe has embraced some more nationalism than maybe U.S. leftist groups or movements would understand and how showing this kind of force against the
cartels is a way to perhaps in Scheimbaum's mind stave off calls for U.S. intervention and show we can
handle this ourselves only with information sharing from the United States. Yeah, a large reason why
Morena is a party won landslide electoral victories in 2018 with Lopez Obrador, 2024,
with Gladi Sheimbaum, is a popular reaction against the latest war on drugs of the Mexican government
under then Felipe Calderon started in 2006, which has a popular reaction.
led to like more than 300,000 homicides.
Right now, I think it's an estimated 130 enforced disappearances.
So part of the reason why Amlo, Lopez Obrador, even won in 2018, was to say,
we're going to try a different approach to the issue of drug trafficking and drug trafficking
organizations.
And he coined this, I think at this point, it's a rather unfortunate terms of Abrazos
no, balazzo, so hugs, not bullets.
But once he got into office, that did not, that remained at the description.
It was not implemented really in the form of policies other than some of those social welfare policies that Morena has implemented, which have reduced levels of extreme inequality and raised minimum wages since 2018.
But there's this weird dynamic where in the mind of the Mexican political opposition and in many American politicians, the idea that just because of Amlo said, we're going to try this Hugs Not Bullets approach, they think that they actually was implemented.
when in reality we still see a mostly militarized approach to the interdiction of drugs
as opposed to looking at the deeper structural roots.
And to do that, you would have to go to the U.S.
because the main driver of this violence in Mexico is the insatiable U.S. demand for illicit drugs.
We're the 5% of the world's population and we consume more than 80% of illicit drugs globally.
That's a huge imbalance that we should probably think about why that exists
as opposed to just focusing on launching a war on drugs against people in Mexico.
And that's the other aspect, right. Yes. The other aspect is, as the Secretary of Defense said in the press conference yesterday morning, that at least 80% of the weapons that the HALISQ cartel uses come from the United States.
25,000 weapons from 2006 to 2018 came from Israel. So this is, in many sense, this, the so called war on drugs in Mexico is a global conflict. And this will not be resolved. Shane bomb and Lopez Obrador can institute the most progressive radical left-wing,
approaches to drugs and drug interdiction.
But if this is not a transnational approach, then it's not going to work.
And this is what we see.
This is part of the reason why we see so much death in parts of Mexico that don't get a
lot of attention media-wise until something like Sunday happens.
I want to just go back in terms of like the Holisco cartels response, 25 national guardsmen
killed.
But as far as I can tell from the reporting, no civilians killed.
What, what, A, if you know differently, I, you know, correct me on that.
But if not, that seems to be rather deliberate.
And if so, why?
That's a really good question.
I've seen estimates between 60 and 70 fatalities total, including the National Guards, fighters,
the Narcos and even some civilians, mostly in the state of Halisko, and dozens of
injury. So we do have instances of civilians getting caught in the crossfire and being killed or
hurt. But they don't seem to be targeted. They don't, I mean, I'm not minimizing these civilian
deaths. I'm not minimizing any of these deaths. But I mean, as a strategy, it seems like, you know,
the Helisco cartel is, you know, they're lighting places on fire. But it seems like they are
at the very least consciously not lighting places on fire that are full of,
civilians, that there is also a sort of almost like a public relations element to this.
There is, I think that's partly, that partly explains it.
The other part is, again, most of these things in the past have happened when a leader is captured.
So the tactic there is to prevent the circulation of vehicles, right?
So if you can start lighting buses and cars on fire and putting them on roads and streets,
the idea is that you prevent the Mexican military or security apparatus is from getting the
capture narco out. In this case, though, they killed El Meno during the operation, or at least
fatally wounded him and he died somehow during the transportation to Mexico City based on the
reporting that you choose. But yeah, they're not going to, they're not going to, you know,
these drug trafficking organizations are embedded in the social fabric in these different provinces
and localities. Part of the reasons why they survive is because they've been able to establish
themselves as a political, social, and economic force at the local level.
Right. So by just indiscriminately firing upon civilians would kind of undermine their own social position within within some of these geographies in Mexico, particularly in rural Mexico.
One final question. And in terms of like where are the dangers for Shinebaum in terms of looking like she's responding too much to the United States?
I mean, that's the trick of asserting Mexican sovereignty when you live next to United States for like the past 200 years.
I mean, this is an ongoing challenge that Shane Bomb and every single one of her predecessors has faced.
So I think right now there's very clear limit.
So they were clear about saying that the U.S. intelligence helped in the operation.
But one limit right now, it seems to be there's no, at least publicly, there's no U.S. boots on the ground in helping these operations.
So I think that's one red line that the Shane Bomb administration has come down on in terms of, again, trying to calibrate their protection of sovereignty vis-a-vis,
United States. But if they keep, but again, but in the end, this is a symbolic political victory
because as we know, this is not going to put a dent into the flow of illicit drugs into
United States. It's not going to put a dent into the flow of military grade U.S. weaponry down
into Mexico. We've been through this before, and the kingpin strategy is a disastrous policy,
and in the short term we'll probably see fragmentation and intensified levels of violence at the local
level in Mexico, which may not even find its way into mainstream reporting. I mean, Sunday,
the fact that they attacked Puerto Vallata made it a big deal. The fact that they were
attacking, you know, lighting cars on fire in the parking lot of a Costco, apparently made,
made it a thing online. But what worries me is that in the aftermath of El Mentional's death,
that there's going to be fragmentation within this cartel, and that'll manifest itself
in the form of violence against local communities in the countryside.
Alexander Avina, thank you so much for your time today. I really appreciate it.
Thank you, guys. Thanks so much.
All right, folks. We're going to
I think we also have
let's
let's
let's play this
clip here
this is number
four
it is
Mexico's
Defense Secretary
making the argument
that 80% of the
weapons seized from cartels are
of U.S. origin
I'll read over these captions here.
Yes, I mentioned here
It has already been mentioned here, speaking of the strategy general,
since the beginning of the administration, 23,000 weapons have been seized.
Of those 23,000 weapons, 80% are of U.S. origin, North American.
So in this case, the proportion is roughly the same.
Correct.
Referring to the weapons seized in that raid, it appears.
So that's just the quote that we were referencing.
And a good, you know, like the Scheinbaum is in a difficult position here.
One, I think, because the violence of these cartels and the kidnappings that happens in Mexico is a real thing.
And they are very well armed because of the United States, because of covert action by the United States and Israel too.
Covert action and deals with some of these groups that we,
We know that the U.S. has engaged in all across the world, selling arms to groups that eventually, you know, commit terror attacks against Americans and it creating extremist groups.
But also just the infrastructure of the war on drugs, creating a black market for these cartels.
And primarily, even though the Trump administration is constantly talking about narco-terrorism, yes, the consumption of drugs here has resolved.
in many overdose deaths, even though fentanyl overdose deaths are on the decline.
But the blowback is primarily felt by the people of Mexico and other folks south of the United
States where these heavily armed by the U.S. and Israel groups that are that crop up because
of the black market created by our war on drugs, inflict pain, kidnappings, killings,
all across their communities. And so like, it is a security issue for Shinebound there in that
sense. And her, she has, in part due to the increased militarization from the United States,
has adjusted her approach from her predecessor to being more of a nationalist, more militaristic
against the cartels. Because Alexander talked about it a little, but apparently, like, you know,
there was an increase in violence recently on this front. So that's what this was in, in
response to.
And it's just a very different, like, you know, you might see right wingers championing the
fact that Scheinbaum is so popular and chose to act, you know, this aggressively and say, like,
oh, this is why this should be incorporated into our policies here, when in reality, this is
blowback from U.S. tough on crime policies.
All right.
Let's turn, just got a couple of minutes.
tonight
Donald Trump will be
addressing the country
it's unclear how many Democrats are going to
avoid the
state of the union tonight
but
CNN and I just sent you a link to that
Brian
did a poll
on Donald Trump's approval
rating
his approval
is now 32% of Americans now say that Trump has the,
has had the right priorities.
68% says he hasn't paid enough attention to the country's most important problems.
That's the president's most negative reading on that question to date.
Either, in either of his terms in office, at the same time, Americans 61 to 38% say that Trump's policies will move the country in the wrong direction rather than the right one.
Trump's job approval rating among all adults is at 36%, on top of which,
polling from G. Eliot Morris at the Strength and Numbers Verasite poll shows that Trump approval
rating falls to a new low of 37%.
So look, this is not, we can.
can't say for certain is it 36 is it 36 and a half the point is he is extremely unpopular and um
this chart is pretty good do we want to put this up for a sec i mean i like these visuals because it
can help you see the net percentage change he's not gained with any group i mean i guess that's to be
expected when you're in power but minus 12 since this time last year with all adults but lost
ground with some of his stronger groups, men.
Yeah, gosh.
Anybody under the age of 50?
Massive swings.
Sorry, guys.
Yeah, 65 and older.
Still okay with him.
I wonder why when he goes out on the podium and is like,
I want to make sure you're how you don't lose any money on your homes that have
exponentially increased in value and screw anybody under 50 if they want to buy.
a home. Well, there's also a data out, and I'm trying to think where I had that, that shows that
a huge portion of our economy is driven by people who are over the age of 50 right now. It's a problem,
because, of course, as you find that, check. Or did you find it? No. Okay. I didn't find it. I have
my stack of stuff. But, um, so, Donald Trump is going to get out there tonight. And, um,
he is very likely to talk about all the great things that are going to come from tariffs.
The new tariffs, not the old tariffs. Um, we're going to end up having to give that money to
financiers who purchased essentially the, uh, tariff refund rights. Uh, some corporations will get it
back. But here's what I will guarantee.
There will be no $2,000 rebate checks from the federal government.
There will be no rebate checks from FedEx, who's now suing the government to get their
tariff money back.
There's not going to be any rebates from whatever it is that you paid extra for tariffs,
the hundreds of billions of dollars in which Americans paid extra.
None of that's coming back to you.
we're going to see this whole tariff rebate thing to the extent that it ever gets worked out
is just going to increase wealth inequality it's i mean it is it is literally
and and this is you know part of the problem that we have largely in society is that every government
and i say this only for the conservatives and the libertarians who are listening to the program
and never seem to call in anymore.
Every government picks winners and losers.
Every government redistributes wealth.
The question is, who are going to be the winners, who are going to be the losers,
and in which direction does the redistribution happen?
New York State, New York City pays more money and taxes than it gets back from New York State.
In this country, the money is redistributed to the wealthy.
That's just simply the flow of what government does.
And that is a problem.
And there couldn't be a more naked example of this than tariffs, taxes, paid by consumers,
and then rebated to the corporations.
I mean, that stole Americans' money because the Trump administration wanted to violate the
spirit of the law and wanted to implement his tariffs in the way that he saw fit and wield
maximum power. So he stole billions and billions of dollars from American consumers and corporations
are, if they're successful in their suits, about to keep that money. And the people that will
get really rich are the clients of Cantor Fitzgerald, who were a part of purchasing basically
the bets against these tariffs.
And so this is the dynamic.
Now, what Trump is going to say tonight is he's going to try and talk about the economy in some way.
I don't know how he could have any credibility left.
It's been a year and a half and he's done nothing.
Manufacturing numbers are down.
Our GDP is basically where it was during Biden.
Our employment numbers are actually weaker than they were in the final year of
Biden, inflation more or less at the same as it wasn't Biden.
It's cooled off just a little bit.
And it, you know, it remains to be seen.
Again, we have this gap between jobs and GDP, although the last GDP numbers were pretty bad.
And we're going to see what catches up.
But in the meantime, the problem that people have, and tomorrow we're going to be talking
about my console about this, the cost of goods that are staples.
that are necessities still too high relative to people's purchasing power.
We have a K-shaped economy where the wealthy are driving consumer spending,
the wealthy are accruing, getting the value of all the increase in values of like homeownership,
etc., etc.
We literally do have those two Americas that old John Edwards talked about and others in the past.
And so it's going to be interesting to see how he addresses that.
And also, if he even talks about ICE, if he talks about, I mean, I mean, I find a hard for him not to be like, transgender everybody.
We're no longer transgendering everybody.
He'll do that, but he's just going to lie.
He'll lie his way through immigration.
He'll say we're taking the criminals out.
He'll lie his way through the economy stuff, and they'll talk about the Dow, the Dow, which has dipped below 50,000.
I don't know if anybody's told Pam Bondi might break her heart.
But, yeah, he'll just lie because he only knows one move at this point, which is to counter message with a bunch of BS.
It's going to be interesting to see if he avoids that.
Granted, it'll be only marginally interesting.
And the problem in terms of the coverage tonight is that I want to be drunkest for Trump,
but I'm most interested in the two Democratic responses that we're going to see, or at least two.
The Progressive Caucus, Summer Lee, is going to be addressing, and I'm very curious to see what she has to say.
Great choice.
a really great congressperson.
The Tim Duncan of the progressives Matt once called her,
and I think it's a great fundamentals,
kind of goes about her business quietly and is always on point.
Yep.
The Democrats, it's really Chuck Schumer.
You'll recall last year, Chuck Schumer had Elise Slotkin on
because she was the rising star of the party at this time last year.
That didn't go so.
well, that project. They really tried. They really tried. Remember, like, there was just, like,
rash of articles where she was going around and saying, like, she's the future. She's the future.
And we need to get back to basics, CIA stuff. And what a coincidence. The future, according to Chuck
Schumer, is his exact politics, but with someone who's 30 years younger. Exactly. And this year,
they have done basically the same thing. A listener sent this video or a link to this video.
This guy's on our list.
Tad Stormer, I think, is his name.
He has written a book that's going to come out in June on the resistance.
And, you know, some people are allergic to that word, but it's not the resistance, as you know it.
Like historically, like actual resistance.
And he breaks down the choice of Abigail Spanberger and the location, which is at Colonial Williamsburg.
And here, I think this clip, if I remember correctly, this is where he's like going over some of those, that choice relative to last year.
I'll expand on what he says because it really is fascinating.
He goes over the potential other scenarios that Democrats could have chosen.
But the Democratic establishment, it's Chuck Schumer.
Went with the-
Chuck Schumer.
Yes.
Wait, wasn't she also CIA Spamberger?
Oh, they're good friends.
Wait, so hold on.
They're doing two in a row CIA, like deep state people?
Oh, no, I think you have to.
Oh, right.
I think you have to.
I think that's the rule.
That's the rule.
Yeah, you've got to do CIA, former CIA agents, going to do two in a row.
So neither one sticks out as being two CIA-ish.
Right.
Hiding in plain sight.
Oh, my God.
But here is a stormer.
Span Parker.
And they chose Colonial Williamsburg.
And this isn't the first time.
Last year, the Democrats picked Alyssa Slotkin to deliver the response to Trump's first address to Congress.
Also a centrist, also a former CIA officer.
Spadberger and Slotkin are actually friends.
They went to Congress together in 2018.
They shared an apartment on Capitol Hill.
They're cut from the same cloth.
So it's not a one-time calculation.
The Democrats have now chosen this type twice in a row.
That's a pattern, not coincidence.
Tells you something about what the party's leadership thinks the opposition to Trump should look like,
what they look like.
Now, Spanberger deserves all kinds of props.
Hell, she's the first female governor of Virginia in its history,
and I'm a historian of this stuff, and that's a big deal.
She checks the credential box, too, and she's safe.
The calculation here is entirely about November.
We're eight months away from the midterms.
The strategy isn't to incite a movement,
or to frame a revolution.
It's to comfort purple voters.
Forget about you folks on the left.
It's the adult-in-the-room strategy.
A former CIA officer talking about affordability and norms
doesn't scare the suburban voter, the mythical middle folks,
but it does go deeper than just votes.
By putting her in Colonial Williamsburg
and making a specific argument about the country,
that the system still works,
that the patriotic story is still valid,
that an institution still produce progress,
that we don't need to burn it down or rethink it,
we just need to restore it.
We present Spanberger as the future that returns us to the past.
It's like saying, vote for us,
and we'll make it 2016 or 208 again,
which is appealing to a lot of people.
They're tired.
The chaos of the last few years,
the idea of just going back to something that feels normal
is seductive to many,
especially to white people.
And that's just a fantasy,
which brings us to the backdrop.
Fantasy and colonial Williamsburg
seem to have a tendency of going together in those ends.
So the timing's not accidental, right?
It's America's 250th.
You've heard that all over the place.
Okay, he goes on.
And just to paraphrase,
he makes the argument that like yes it is a fantasy and we're returning to now he doesn't
critique necessarily the strategy as much as i will uh he's not necessarily in favor of it he's
just uh analyzing accurate analysis yeah but the fact is is that first off we're at a midterm
the idea that um the biggest gains can be made from turning former republican voters
into Democratic voters, I think is absurd.
The biggest gains are going to be in getting Democratic voters who vote in on your elections
to go out and vote more.
The biggest gains are going to be from Republican voters just staying at home because they're
just disgusted by this.
Now, Stormer gives four other examples of what the Democrats could have chosen to run,
which I think is really helpful.
And they're, I don't want to say they're extreme examples, but, but, but he, he, he, he really draws them in contrast.
One would be, um, Minneapolis.
Instead of having it at Colonial Williamsburg, which is a fantasy, incidentally, that was, it was a town that was built in 1920.
So, there's so many other patriotic sites in Virginia.
Okay.
But, but, but, but the point is, it is a, like, it's almost like a Disneyfication.
Yeah.
of like what like you know uh of some sentimentality we're going to go back to this era that was always a fantasy
in the first place remember your class trip you could have it at minneapolis where i mean everybody
knows what's gone on there where it is a sign of both the strength of the people in minneapolis
and fighting against the worst parts of the trump regime you could have that ilhan omar who was attacked
herself deliver this. Now, of course, Chuck Schumer would never allow this to happen. But it does give you,
it's just an illustration as to how it could be different. You could have, you can have somebody else
from Minnesota, deliver this week. You could theoretically have Abigail Spanberger go to
Minneapolis. Now, she's not really part of that fight, but, or you could have had Mom Dany
give the speech from a tenement museum in New York City saying we're here about talking about
protecting immigrants. Go to the Statue of Liberty and talk about nation of immigrants.
Talk about a different vision of what America is than what Donald Trump has and heighten the contrast.
Heighten the contrast. Or you could have had the mayor of Philadelphia deliver the speech.
speech from George Washington's former home where Donald Trump tried to tear down, ordered
the National Parks Service to take down the plaque about slaves being there and was ordered
to replace it, bring it back by a federal judge.
She could have been there to tie in sort of like this moment as a reconstruction.
Or he said you could have had AOC, you know, for.
from like a foreign policy place.
She could have done it from the Statue of Liberty as someone from New York,
nation of immigrants, what have you.
But he's just trying to sort of show the different ways where you could send a message
internationally, like in Munich, to say that there is a rise of authoritarianism.
He just gives these illustrations to highlight the specific choice that Chuck Schumer made.
And we talked about this yesterday, how during the 20,
16 election and to some extent in the 2024 election, Democrats really tried to finesse their
constituency in such a way that it involved like, you know, Republican-ish people and not
working class Republicans, suburban Republicans, more white collar Republicans. And this has been
a losing strategy for Democrats, for an extended period of time, really.
if you look at like you know congress if you look at uh states etc etc that strategy has failed um we look at
what has driven Donald trump down in the polls and a a notion of like of wanting calm and whatnot is
is an element to it but you're not addressing the underlying thing this is about it's a
in, you know, in Stormer's words, you know, sort of a restoration instead of a reconstruction.
But we know restoration cannot happen. Joe Biden was the restoration candidate and he was thrown out.
And Kamala Harris ran on a semi-restoration style campaign, including talking about democracy on the ballot, which is exactly what you're saying, which is our system is under threat by Donald Trump.
and don't you want to preserve the system?
And you know what the voters said about the system?
System screwed us over.
They said we would prefer fascism to the system.
That is how badly our so-called democracy in this country is broken and how shut out people are from active participation in that democracy, which includes the inability for any Democratic voters to weigh in on who the 2024 nominee was going to be until Kamala has.
Harris was kind of thrust into it last minute.
It includes the Democratic Party shutting out voters from and their desire to change course on the genocide in Gaza.
It's a complete, I don't know, they're trying to do it with brute force.
Again, the same strategy, the same people they're targeting.
Because by the way, consultants get really rich when you micro-target wealthier suburbanites.
But if you have a turnout-based operation that's involving volunteers and door-knocking and people,
power, that is a threat to the institution and the money that's behind the Democratic Party.
Absolutely. I mean, from the consultant's perspective, when you're a hammer, everything is
a nail. But in their instance, the things that are nail are media buys because they get
15 percent vague. But if you think about, like, you know, there's a fine line between protect
democracy and protect the established order. And when Harris went around,
with
Liz Cheney
Liz Cheney
they would say
we're protecting democracy
but they were showing
we're protecting the established order
look at here are the
two parties still exist
and they are still fundamentally
who they were
and we have joined together
to fight the insurgent
and they had a credibility problem
on the word democracy
even so though
I mean it's even the point is
the the word democracy does not mean yes what they think it means to people it just means more of
whatever's been bad but it would but the reason it also doesn't mean that is because they would
have had to demonstrate it to show that they are democratic democratically responsive in the four
years prior to this election or in the very least in the in the two years uh you mean in terms
of like Biden Biden and the genocide yes I mean like like you democracy isn't just like a in
who are we making fun of? Andrew Schultz talking about the Constitution should have prevented
Trump from doing all of this. Remember, he was making that argument as if the Constitution
was a brick wall and not something that can be violated and it doesn't have like inherent
guardrails in it. And it feels like the same sort of argument here where it's like democracy
as an ethic outside of like any action to preserve it really.
from the Biden administration side, which included, I didn't even point to this,
Merrick Garland not prosecuting the coup attemptors and the anti-democratic forces within the fascist
Republican Party. They didn't enforce democracy from a law enforcement perspective, and they didn't
practice it internally within their own party, and they sure as hell did not practice it with the
American public as they committed genocide. Tana Hacy Coates made the argument is if you're not going to
stand up against the genocide? How are you going to stand up against, you know, anti-democratic forces?
Well, that's more poetic than what I'm saying, but it's not even just like the ethic that he's
talking about here. It's quite literally like it was not in their interest not to listen to the
public. They don't have the money on their side in the same way the Republicans do. The Democrats
cannot narrow their coalition any further because without people power, this is where we're at.
It's all consolidating on the right. And the imagery of,
of by just simply looking back on nostalgia of colonial Williamsburg, as opposed to taking you right to where the fight is.
One is sort of like we can we can do this by appealing to an aesthetic and to a simpler time.
And the other vision for what your response to the state of the union could be is here is where the fight is.
This is what's happening right now.
And we're going to address this, not a general aesthetic or feeling, but rather.
And look, everybody says you need to tell a story.
there is what is the story of colonial williamsburg it's like when are it's it's all in the past it is not in the
moment there is no drama it is a bad story the real story is there are people here fighting against
masked thugs or uh we are fighting against the misinformation that the and the revising of history
that is taking place in uh philadelphia or um or um
We are saving immigrants and building a new coalition.
Like, all of these other stories are dramatic and have drama and have a protagonist and antagonist.
Not everyone would agree that you need to have an antagonist and tell a story.
What's that?
Aswer Klein literally said that to you in your debate.
I mean, but that's the wing of the party that he represents.
He said that a story doesn't have to have villains, a political story.
Right.
Which is like, I don't want to say what that.
I mean, I don't even, that that's like literally the opposite of what politics is.
I mean, to be fair, to Ezra, you know, I am a, I have a professional history in writing dramatic and comedic strips.
And he did not.
Yeah.
And someone doesn't know how to, like, the things you need to for a story.
The other things I just want to make sure, like we hit on from, because that was a really good analysis of it.
The comforting purple voters thing.
We showed that focus group result from the New York Times yesterday.
We're now the, like, whatever a purple voter is, okay, let's refer to them as independence, because that's the growing political constituency in this country.
People are more frequently identifying as independent.
And when you talk to them, when they hear moderate, they hear status quo.
That's what the focus group said.
Now, we're going to need more data on that to be completely determinative on it.
but I think, you know, we, like, you can make an assessment and that's what we're doing.
That's how it's coded and it's continued to code in that way.
And the results made it clear in 2024.
They pretend that that one ad about Kamala Harris, she's for they, them, I'm for you,
proves that it was just the transphobia.
We'll get to Gavin Newsom later in the show.
But like, what that ad signified was she's for they, them, the status quo,
not trans people, and I'm for you.
They get that ad wrong.
And that was proven in Virginia with Spanberger because a year later, the Republican ran against Spamberger in that race on explicit transphobia.
And Spanberger won historically in Virginia against that Republican.
So it wasn't about being too woke.
It was about the status quo element and leaning into the strategy that's losing.
And the other thing about Spamberger that's so annoying about her being selected beyond it being two CIA people in a row.
for three in a row next year is the fact that they are trying to brute force her victory into
as significant as something as Zoran Mamdhanis, when her situation could not have been more perfect.
One, they ran on the idiotic transphobic strategy that I just laid out.
The data would tell you that one, Trump the election.
It's not what happened.
Two, that there were a bunch of federal workers fired in her state by Trump himself that were
extremely motivated to vote against him. And three, Zoron's election was a tide that lifted all
boats across the country. And they don't want to, they don't want to acknowledge that. The affordability.
Exactly. They stole that from him. And then they pretend like, oh, there's enthusiasm for these
moderate CIA people in the same way. Across the river in Union City, you saw like this huge
turnaround with young voters in New Jersey voting for a progressive in that city. I don't think that that was
like, you know, because
people were
just as enthusiastic about like every single
Democrat, that's people who live in Jersey
just miles away from the city saying like, let
me check in. I'm inspired by this guy
and his campaign in Manhattan
in New York City. I'm going to
look into my local candidate. And I
think that that happened across the country.
So, long rant, but
you know. But that's just the preview.
Maybe it'll be very different. Maybe
Spanberger will
secretly go to, instead of evoking a mythical founding town.
Oh my God.
And a time that was better, not the time, of course, when there were slaves,
when George Washington had to keep illegal.
George Washington maintained his slaves had to like leave the state for, I think for six,
for a certain period time like every like had to re-up the visa because I think you could only own
slaves for a certain period of time I can't remember exactly the story it's like living in Florida
for six months in the day exactly slaves exactly forget about that part uh and it's not about
the tricolor hats a cornered hats it's really about just the feeling of like we could go back to
that with electricity um but uh tonight we'll be watching that and um I mean I should be
I'll watch it.
Well, I'm going to be streaming.
Okay.
Presumably.
Maybe I'll join you.
Presumably, I have to figure out if we can.
If I know how to do that.
I'll be busy churning butter out of nostalgia.
Maybe we can get on Zoom together, but I don't know how that would work.
But maybe it would.
I don't know.
We'll figure it out.
All right, folks.
Going to head into the fun half of the program.
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Matt?
I got Matt here.
Today, after this show, Left Reckoning is set to premiere at 2.30 p.m.
and it's Dave and Matt reflect on primary in Texas.
Then Daniel Bessner joins us to talk about the new essay collection.
He's edited with Michael Brennese called Cold War liberalism.
What, do you get a problem with Bernays?
I was making sure I said it, right?
I don't want to be like you and say croissant.
Yeah, I appreciate that.
Bernays, I think is really.
That's the sauce, right?
Yeah.
I'm hungry.
See you in the fun half.
It?
Three months from now, six months from now, nine months from now.
And I don't think it's going to be the same as it looks like in six months from now.
And I don't know if it's necessarily going to be better six months from now than it is three months from now.
But I think around 18 months out, we're going to look back and go like, wow.
What?
What is that going on?
It's nuts.
Wait a second.
Hold on for a second.
The majority.
Emma, welcome to the program.
Hey.
Fun hat.
Matt.
Who?
Fun hack.
What is up, everyone?
Fun hat.
No, me keen.
You did it.
Fun hack.
Let's go Brandon.
Let's go Brandon.
Bradley, you want to say hello?
Sorry to disappoint.
Everyone, I'm just a random guy.
It's all the boys today.
Fundamentally false.
No, I'm sorry.
Women's...
Stop talking for a second.
Let me finish.
Where is this coming from?
dude. But dude, uh, you want to smoke this?
Um, seven, eight? Yes.
Yes? It is you.
Oh, it's me. I think it is you. Who is you?
No sound. Every single freaking day. What's on your mind?
We can discuss free markets and we can discuss capitalism.
I'm gonna just know what?
Libertarians. They're so stupid though. Common sense says of course. Gobbled e-gook.
We fucking nailed him. So what's 79 plus 21?
Challenge men. I'm positive.
clevering. I believe 96, I want to say.
857, 210,
35, 501,
1 half, 3-8s, 9-11 for instance.
$3,400,
$1,900.
$6, $5,4, $3 trillion sold.
It's a zero-sum game.
Actually, you're making me think less.
But let me say this.
Hoop.
You can call it satire, Sam goes satire.
On top of it all,
my favorite part about you is just like every day,
all day, like everything you do.
Without a doubt.
Hey, buddy, we see you.
It's just the week being weeded out, obviously.
Yeah, sundown guns out.
I don't know.
But you should know.
People just don't like to entertain ideas anymore.
I have a question.
Who cares?
Our chat is enabled, folks.
I love it.
I do love that.
Got to jump.
I got to be quick.
I get a jump.
I'm losing.
The clock.
We're already late, and the guy's being a dick.
So screw him.
Um.
Sent to a gulaw?
What is wrong with you?
Love you, bye.
Love you.
Bye-bye.
