The Matt Thomas Show with Ross - Aaron Reiss From The Athletic Gives 5 Texans Draft Predictions

Episode Date: April 22, 2020

Hey, this is Whitney Mersens. The Texan dip here. Listen to real Texan talk on your smart speaker. Just say, hey, Google. Play Sports Talk 790 on IHeart Radio. All right, our buddy, Aaron J. Reese, and the Athletic is with us here on the Matt Thomas show. You guys should go to the Athletic because you get a free 90-day trial.

I pay for it anyway because it's just great stuff. It's not just the normal Mambi-Pambi beat stuff. It's kind of in-depth, behind-the-scenes kind of stuff. and one I understand five Texan draft predictions. Now, Aaron, I have not read your article yet. Do you mind giving us those predictions, and then Joe Ross and I would like to add our two cents on these things? That sounds great.

Go ahead. Go with the least controversial or interesting prediction to the most. You just go in any order you want to. Okay. I'll just go. The first one, I think, is the one that Texans, most Texas fans are probably like the most, which is the Texans trade down from the 40th pick. I think that it will be, you know, if you end up telling me that Bill O'Brien trades into the first round,

I don't think anyone here would be totally for it. But I think the sensible thing to do here, and the thing that probably he would be more inclined to do, based on his comments they doesn't think rookies are going to be super impactful this year, is to trade down, accumulate more picks, and perhaps try to make some of those picks, not 2020 picks, but 2021 picks, or even 22 picks, because 2021, who knows what that draft looks like if we don't have college football. Is he the only one that believes this? I mean, I don't know.

Have you read other stories that are beatwriters? Because, man, he certainly is giving us the interpretation that he doesn't expect a rookie to help out much, if in any, this year. No, I think, you know, I think he obviously was pretty vocal about it. And there was, you know, I was reading some kind of national columns on it. and there were other people who said similar things, but I think he's been more kind of like out there with it. But, you know, it's important to you mind.

He generally is not a guy who I think relies a lot of rookies. You saw Lonnie Johnson kind of go in and out of the lineup last year. Titus Howard, you know, he didn't really originally trust him to play. Left guard, Max Sharping was delayed, even though, you know, he was clearly better than the other internal options on the interior of line. Like, I could go on and on. I mean, I think so he's just not a big rookie guy. When he had a hole in a running back last year, he didn't fix it by trying to give one of his undrafted for agents with Tams or something.

He traded for Carliside, trade for Duke Johnson. This year, you know, a whole of running back. You know, most guys would be like he had a draft one in the fourth round or something. But he obviously traded for David Johnson. So, you know, he's generally not head of press rookies. And I think that the seasonally exacerbates that kind of quality. All right, any of you guys disagree with the argument that the Texans could trade down. I could definitely see that.

I think that's a good one, Aaron. That's a good one. All right. Number two. Okay. My second one is that I think that they will draft a receiver, and I think that the receiver will be yet another vertical threat. And there was a lot of criticism when they traded for Brandon Cooks.

Like, the seconds are three receivers, and Kenny Stills, Will Fuller, and very cooks, and they all do the same thing. I think that it is, obviously, redundancy, and I do think that it is kind of a, not necessarily or the most conventional style of team building, but I would have two things to say about that. One is that Will Fuller or Brandon Cooks either could get hurt. They both have, you know, pretty known injury histories.

I mentioned this in a mailbag ever last week, and some fans thought I was crazy, but I would say, let's just wait and see. I'm not sure King Stills will necessarily, like, I'm not saying it wouldn't be the most illogical thing if they ended up moving on for him in a trade or cutting him or whatever because they'd free $7 million in cap space

to capitalize up this really deep. receive a draft and to replace that depth. And you know, you use that $7 million to maybe supplement the defense in the, you know, post-effragency after the draft when, you know, you don't have to consider a cop-picks because obviously Bill Brown is my kind of trust that

the rookies of draft are going to be a tool that fix the defense and this defense still needs a lot of help. The reason I think they would go with three vertical threats or four vertical threats, the keep stills, whatever they do, is just because I think that is clearly what Bill Ryan is placing an emphasis on. And while we might think that, you know, they need more intermediate,

or short like passing game guys, possession receivers, a guy like DeAndre Hopkins, who Michelle Watson can turn to whenever he's covered. I'm not sure Bill O'Brien thinks of it that way. I mean, you have to think that, you know,

in this for agency period, when a lot of wide receivers failed to get paid, he signed rental cops to a pretty expensive contract. He also is placing a really big bet on David Johnson. If David Johnson is to make good on that bad, it'll be because he's an effective receiver, not just a runner. He obviously had Duke Johnson.

He brought back there in tells him a career year. He told me he, you know, and his pre-dial call they think they're good things ahead for collie wearing, the tight end you spend, you know, a total long rookie or an IR. So he thinks that, you know, they necessarily need these sort of intermediate, short possession receiver that it might seem they need just based on look out of the roster. Okay. You're the one that's pushing this, Kenny Stills is going to be released, aren't you?

Are you the only one putting this out there? I'm not pushing it. I mentioned in the mailback, someone asked about it, and then I was suddenly getting dragged for it. And all I did was, like, list of, like, the reasons that it would make some sense. Well, also listening to the reason that it wouldn't make any sense, which is that you're trusting Will Fuller and Brann and Cook to stay healthy. I'm just, I'm just saying that you have to look at the, like, the cap situation and consider the draft class how deep it is.

And, like, if you told me that he wasn't on the roster, I wouldn't be, like, totally floored. But, like, I'm not saying that he's definitely that he's off the team. And I think there's definitely value to keep him at this point. And that if you also trade it in or cut him or whatever, it would be selling low on something. a player you bought pretty high on it. Think about the fact that two personal picks alone

would have been, you know, an unprecedented price to pay for a Lambert's console. That may get a second round pick, but if you look at it that way, it's like, okay, I guess the second round pick is for Kenny's stills. That's pretty high price to pay for a second or a third receiver. And now you'd be, if you're in what I was talking about, you'd be cutting out or trading or whatever. I mean, that would be, you wouldn't be getting similar value back.

So I'm not saying it's going to happen or, like, I'm not advocating for that. I'm just saying, like, I think you should look at kind of the cap situation in the route situation, and you could see an argument that we've made for it. It was one odd. Number three. All right. My third one is that, I think they draft a running back, and I think they drafts the running back

in the middle round. Let's say fourth or fifth round. They have two picks in those rounds right now, or one pick in each round, and obviously if they trade down, they could potentially accumulate another one. And my reasoning for that is that, you know, despite I could have David Johnson and they have Duke Johnson, and they're spending a lot of money on those guys. you can't trust that David Johnson is necessarily going to be the all-pro guy he wasn't 2016, anything close to it.

He's averaged 3.7 yards per carry the past two seasons. He's been injured. He's played 30 games for the last three seasons. And, you know, I think also all these trades, Bill Ryan has made, indicate that he places a higher value on running back than a lot of the league. The analytics crowd and the police in general. And so I think that now we really see that he needs to kind of hedge his death by drafted another running back. but I think he might do it earlier than some people will fight,

perhaps before addressing some other needs. I'm not arguing with any of this so far. Are you boys, anything? No, I don't think they could draft the running back at 40 and make all of us upset. Let me tell you something, Aaron. If they draft the running back at 40, you know, those fire Bill O'Brien hashtags you see on Twitter every day?

It might be trending number one in America. I would be forward if they did that, but it would be, you know, you could at least say it would be interesting, right? I mean, he'd be placing like kind of an unprecedented that on a position that everyone has basically viewed as replaceable. I thought it very much like a Ziggyz and everyone else is agging sort of move. I got you. All right, so now you got, we're down to two of these predictions.

Are these going to be some of these bombastic, crazy ones, or are these still delta in a lot of fact? I think they're all sensible. I, you know, I operate and just kind of looking at it. what I think makes some sense, which is, so I don't have anything too wild here, but another one is that I think the rookie who leads

all of the people in this draft class and starts will be an offensive lineman. And the reason I say that is because, obviously it's the one position that is, O'Brien did rotate out his right tackled last year. It is, in most part, exempt from kind of rotations, a lot of

subbing out. So, you know, for guys playing, probably starting. And they have, you know, four out of five starters are pretty stable. Max Sharping, Titus Howard, Nick Martin, Larry Rhees Huntsle. I think the one spot there that is potentially up for a change or an upgrade is that Colton, who is making $7 million this year, $7 million next year with no dead money on either of those years. So again, they can move on from him. I don't necessarily kind of what O'Brien has said about rookies and just the sense of the off season. I don't think

you necessarily cut a starter at right guard unless you have someone you think is going to replace them right away. They probably don't have that guy. But I do think that, you know, if Fulton continues to struggle, which he has in the two years. It's a pretty sizable deal. Then you probably give whatever rookie you draft a chance at the end of the season, see what you have there. And if you think that he's a viable option to replace Fulton, then you have to move on from the Poldman 2021, clear $7 million in a cap space.

That space will be valuable in the year when to show and whatnot. And if only you're making more money, kind of more against the cap and Larry Thompson all in all. All right. In the last grandiose prediction from Aaron J. Reese on Twitter at the on the Athletics NFL Texans beat is? Yeah, I don't know how these takes are, but my last one is that I think a free agent who they sign after the draft will play more defensive snaps than anyone that they draft this weekend.

That's a rookie. Thus, your thought of rookies just aren't going to make that big of a difference this year. Yeah, I think that, and I just think that they clearly just have more work to do on defense. I think it's obviously not just going to be based on the draft. it's uh you know there's there's more to do they basically spent this whole off season tweaking the offense when the defense is the same you know we all kind of headed into those off season with with questions about um and so i don't think even if you drop a defense of yman you draft a safety like i don't think that's enough i think that they're you know they're bringing back basically the same corners as they had a year ago

and that wasn't necessarily the most stellar group so i think that that's a place where they get out somebody i think they could still add another edge rusher so whether it's whatever it is i think that they're, sorry, excuse me, there are free agents to add who will be more impactful in the rookies they draft this year. This wasn't too crazy. I thought you were going to say they were going to draft and pick up an extra tight end or something. I don't know what I was waiting for something bomb back.

These all are well thought of, responsible takes from your part. Good job. That's all I am, you know, well thought out and responsible. Nothing grandiose, nothing clickbait. That's why the athletic is the place to go for your Texans information, correct? That's right. All right. Well, Aaron, I look forward to watching your tweets tomorrow. Well, you won't be on the Texans so much, but Friday and Saturday for sure.

Thanks for the time and enjoy the draft coverage, my friend. We appreciate it. Okay, thank you. You got Aaron J. Reese from The Athletic with us here on the program.