The Matt Thomas Show with Ross - Aaron Reiss On The Texans 0-2 Start At Looking Forward to The Steelers Game

Episode Date: September 22, 2020

Aaron Reiss On The Texans 0-2 Start At Looking Forward to The Steelers Game

Aaron, is it really you? That's me. I heard whatever the heck you were, I heard the tail end of whatever you were talking about. I'm going to have to go back to that whole segment. You're talking about Wade Phillips and getting cameos? Or Colby coming to? Oh, yeah, LeBron.

Who is your team? Who's your basketball team? I don't really have a team. I like basketball in general. I grew up here in Houston, so I was watching the Rocketsville when I grew up. But honestly, like when I went to college, in Missouri, I kind of stopped watching, like, local teams.

So I just kind of became a fan of whatever I could watch. But I enjoy kind of the Rockets pushing the sport forward. I just in general, like innovative ideas. So I'm a fan of, like, shooting more threes and pushing the limits on stuff. I think any of those things are fun to watch. Darryl Morey loves you for saying what you just said right there. All right, you had a tweet yesterday. That was pretty alarming.

concerned David Johnson and the lack of people that were in front of him was he was trying to run the football. Would you please explain the audience what that was where he got it from and how we should interpret it? Yeah. Next Gen stats, NFL Next Gen stats, which, you know, is just based on a lot of tracking data and stuff.

They can track how often a player runs into loaded boxes, which is eight or more defenders in the box. And David Johnson did not face a single loaded box against the Ravens in week two, yet he ran for 34 yards on 11 carries. I'm a big believer that, you know, part of the reason I think a lot of people and kind of more analytics-focused mindset is that running backs are replaceable or whatever, is that a lot of it has to do with situation more than it has to do with the player. Not to say that's entirely what it is, but it is a large part of it.

So that can be as far as the line blocking well or the way the scheme is built so that the guy doesn't face a lot of loaded boxes, you know, all those things. So the reason that's important is because, you know, he was put in what would appear to be a relatively favorable situation, and he still was not efficient. So how do you think Bill O'Brien interprets what you just said? You know, I don't know. I think, I mean, Bill, like, as much as people in, you know, at Houston, I think one, hey, I don't know, I think any NFL head coach obviously knows more about football than me. And I think he could, whether he wants to do it based on the analytics or look at it. at the tape. I think he's going to see the same thing, right?

That the Ravens are playing a lot of two high safeties and that David Johnson could not make them pay for it. So let me ask you, Aaron, I didn't give them a chance on either one of the two games. So in my mind, the season starts this week. I would have to say, of the two weeks, the offensive line, frankly, has been a massive disappointment for me in terms of what I was not anticipating being a problem. Do you agree with that or did you find something that was more pressing of an issue after the first two games? No, I would agree with that.

You know, I think like, like you said, I didn't expect them to win either of the two games. I think if you're a fan, you're discouraged by the fact that the games weren't at least close, right? They weren't even competitive, really. And you would like to think that if you have Deshaun Watson, you just paid them all this money. If you've invested all this money in the offensive line, you've done this whole overhaul of the receiving corps, because you believe, you know, you can add all at speed and have layers of production, as Bill O'Brien likes to say, that at least the offense could compete in a shootout, and that was not the case. And, yeah, I mean, the offensive line is clearly the worst or the most concerning part of that,

because at least Cook and Cobb, they came on this past week. Well, Fuller didn't get a target, which is odd, but, you know, Cook and Cobb came on, so you can say whatever out the receiving course. But, you know, the offensive line is one area where the Texans the whole time we're preaching like, oh, you know, like have continuity, returning all five, starters for the first time in the Bolivarian era. That's like a huge deal, and they're going to be better this year. This group is not better this year.

This group has been really bad. You know, this unit ranked 8th and ESPN's past block win rate last year, which is a measurement of how often they hold their block for 2.5 seconds. So far this year, Sarah Barshap, who covers a team for ESPN, she tweeted out, they ranked 31st through two weeks. There are 32 teams in the NFL. Oh, look at you and Sarah just dropping facts on our audience. audience. It's so alarming. Hey, we caught you late. Can you hang on for the next time?

Because I got to get to a break in because I got like 10 more things I want to ask you. Is that okay? Yeah, yeah, I can hang on. You're the best. Aaron Reese, Aaron J. Reese on Twitter. He is with the athletic and he will be with us for another segment here on the Matt Thomas show. Houston's official sports cliche translator. I'm working hard. I'm trying to be a good teammate. I'm trying to go out here every day and do my job. Matt Thomas. Taking it one day at a time. All right, we're going to have a couple of minutes here with Aaron Reese from the athletic. We appreciate him sticking with us a little longer because of our phone issues. And I think the weather gremlins are handling a lot of that responsibility.

Okay, Aaron, so Pittsburgh will not provide nearly as prolific of an offense that we have seen in the first two weeks, but their defense is pretty stout. If you were to bend Bill O'Brien's ear for a couple of minutes or he was going to give you his ear, what would you be talking about? What are things you want to see this week that he hasn't seen from his club? last couple of weeks? Well, you know, when we went to commercial, I think the biggest thing is that the line like needs to be better for this game could be really disastrous for the Texans. And if it is, obviously, they get to O-N-3 and, you know, they came back from that in 2018. But in my opinion, that probably makes it even less likely.

They would be lucky enough to do it again in 2020. The rate Steelers, I think, ranked first in pressure rate last season. They ranked second so far this season. And that probably is the most alarming thing about the Texas. Jackson's Office of the Lions performance through the first two weeks is that the Ravens and Chiefs have, you know, fine pass rushes, above average pass rushes, at least if you go based on last season's numbers, the Steelers have a much better one. And, you know, and I think that, so you can imagine that Deshaun Watson who took, I think, 13 hits in week two, this could get

really ugly if the line continues performing the way it has. On the defensive side, Whitney Marcellus is one of our favorite people on Earth, as you would know. But three tackles and two. two games. Where is he? Is he just not right place, right time? Is he missing assignments? Why has he been so profoundly quiet so far this year? Yeah, you know, I'd have to go back and I'd have to, you know, watch him more specifically. And, you know, maybe that is something worth doing here coming up. But I think the, you know, the biggest thing is that this unit in general, like sacks are kind of fluky. And so the fact that they have had four sacks against Lamar last week, that's good. But,

QB hits is probably a better indicator of pressure. And in general, this team, I think, only have eight QB hits, which ranks like 24th or something. So, I mean, they're not going to rush in the passer. Which is probably something most people could have anticipated coming into the season. But, you know, Mercilus is key in them at least being average in that regard. And a slow start to him is discouraging if you're hoping that they can at least be average. No turnovers to speak of. Not that you can coach turnovers, but you can anticipate.

You can be close. you can do some things to strip and force fumbles and whatnot. So what do you take of that? Because if you think of the greater Texan defenses in the last decade, regardless of who is quarterbacking, regardless of how the offense is moving, short fields help the Texans out. Why has that been such an issue so far, you believe? Yeah, you know, I mean, I think the Texans do talk a lot about Anthony Weaver and Bill

Brian have both talked a lot about that, that they need to create more turnovers. And certainly they do. I think, you know, it's probably not that. the cleanest reason or the reason that people want to hear because it doesn't really provide a fix. But there's some level of randomness involved in this. You know, the Texans in 2018 had I think the second best turnover margin in the league. This past year they were exactly average with a, I think, a turnover margin to zero, just as many as they forced as they gave up.

So if you just kind of base it on luck and just the way these things have been flow, they're probably due to have a negative turnover margin this year. And we certainly are seeing that early on. That being said, you know, if you don't have any turnovers of it, the first two games, odd there you're probably due to get them coming up. You know, that's kind of why there's that saying, you know, they come in a bunches. For I'll let you run, I'll go back to the offensive side. Two weeks with Tim Kelly's play caller, it doesn't look like anything's changed.

Do you notice anything different in a Tim Kelly calling plays in Bill O'Brien at the past handful of years? You know, actually, it's funny you say that because I probably, if we had done this call like three hours ago, would have agreed with you. You know, they added all this speed, but, They aren't really producing a lot of explosive plays. Duke Johnson was out this past week, so we didn't really see much of these two-back formations

that they had talked so much about. But, you know, I was looking at a website that allows you to kind of look at early-down pass frequency, which, and it controls for win probability, which is, you know, based on what the scores and stuff. And the testing is actually right now lead the league. They are the most, like, pass on early downs more than any other team by a wide margin. I don't expect that to continue necessarily,

because, you know, Tim Kelly has been with a Bill O'Brien since Penn State. It's really kind of the only guy he's worked under for a while. I think their philosophies are pretty aligned, and the Texans probably will come back more towards, like, the middle of the pack in that regard, which is where they've been in past two seasons with Sean Watson and Bill O'Brien calling the plays. But that at least has been one thing.

I was not expecting until I saw it, and obviously is a bit of a departure from the Bill O'Brien play calling. All right, we've got a few days before we get to the Sunday matchup. give me some anticipation. How do you see Sunday playing out? You know, I think it'll be, I don't think it will necessarily be so non-competitive as these past two games. But, you know, the offensive line is really worrisome. And I don't see a reason to think that they're going to suddenly turn it around.

You know, I think Titus Howard, he looks like he's still kind of working his way back from an injury that, you know, he was coming back in rehabbing on the offseason, and he's getting back in shape with, and he's dealing with injury again. It's been on the injury report in past two weeks. And, you know, they benched Mac Sharping for a series or two this past game. So it doesn't seem like they feel really confident about this line. And I think it's going to get pretty ugly against a Steelers' defense that causes a lot of pressure. So I anticipate a low-scoring game, but I think ultimately the Texans will probably lose. When will Deshawn start feeling the heat personally about his performance if he has a similar type effort this week?

You know, I don't know. I don't look at it. When I look at it, I find it hard to blame him. He is, you know, fans, I think, want to blame, when you bring up the pressure, you bring up the QB hits and the sacks. Like, fans want to say, like, well, it's on him. He's got to make quicker a decision. The guy is averaging the fastest time to throw of his career.

So it comes down to he's not holding on the ball too long. That makes a lot of sense. Aaron, thank you very much for the time. We greatly appreciate it. And look forward to sending, hopefully, many of our listeners, to your great account at Aaron J. Reese on Twitter and certainly at the Athletic for all Texans coverage. talk again next week. Thanks again. Yeah, thanks, that. You got it. Appreciate you hanging with us a little extra long as well.