The Matt Thomas Show with Ross - Expectations For Jeremy Peña's Offensive Production In New Astros Lineup

Episode Date: February 24, 2025

With the exit of key pieces in Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, the Astros are adapting to potential lineup changes. The infield will feature new faces with the acquisition of first baseman Christian Walker and third baseman Isaac Paredes, in addition to second baseman Jose Altuve working in left field, but Jeremy Peña is expected to remain at shortstop. Last season, Peña recorded a .266 batting average and an OPS of .701. The Astros concluded their 2024 campaign with a disappointing loss to the Detroit Tigers in the AL Wild Card Series, which ended a run of seven consecutive trips to the American League Championship Series. As the Astros enter a new era, what can Peña do to become a feared member of the lineup?

Astros today. We're supposed to play a spring training game. It has been rained out. Rinelle Blanco was supposed to start that game. I don't know if they're going to push everybody back a day or he'll throw in the backfields, whatever the case may be, but he will not start today's game. McCullors are to throw another side session. It's good for him. Looking good.

We're waiting to see Jose L. Tuvia playing left field. It is going to be, and you and I've been out of enough spring trainings and know this, anytime anything, even a smidge changes from the normal routine, it becomes a storyline because you're always trying to find storylines. Got to. Maybe he makes his left field debut in a game during our time slot. So you have amazing listeners. Thousands of people want to catch how Jose are going to do in left field.

I'm trying to temper my expectations because, as you mentioned last week and it's worth noting, when you get in and around it, you go, man, there's a buzz, there's an energy. There's a, wow, can't wait factor. And then you come back to Houston and you deal like, are they really? Are they going to put LC on TV out and left field all these games? Never done it before? Yeah. Are they really going to be as good as I? Because everybody, nobody's negative.

And no, they shouldn't be. Start a spring training. Why would you be going to be negative? Everybody's got the greatest swing. They've added a pitch. They're stronger. They're in the best shape of their life. And it's like you get around that for like a few days and you're getting those,

breathing in all those fumes of positivity. It gets in your system. You're thinking not only are they going to win the West by 10 games, but they're going to maybe not even lose a single postseason game. Exactly. They're going to take them. the Orioles and they're going to take down the Yankees and they're going to beat the Dodgers in the World Series.

And you're going to realize they're doing the same thing in Reds camp. Yeah, exactly. Everybody's positive everywhere. Meanwhile, Marlins camp, man, we're going to shock the world. Love it. And then reality sets in. Reality will set in at some point and the Astros 2025 water will find its level. It's just a matter of where that level is.

All right, so let's do a little guessing on some players. And I'll go in no particular order, no particular position. Let's go to some, the number one surprise last year, to me, was Ronell Blanco. Okay, positive surprise.

Not even on the radar at all for the Astros, had to kind of backdoor his way in the rotation amount from the injuries coming out of spring training. Yeah, he wouldn't even have been in the original starting five. Nobody had him as a high-end starter. For that matter, nobody really thought he was going to be much of a

starter at all. I know the Astros were trying to push him in that direction. Yes. and one of being what the most consistent pitcher of the group through no hitter tired a little bit towards the second half of the year yeah he slowed down somewhat at the end of the year

but it still ended with great numbers so was that the first sign of him turning the corner in his professional career or was that a one-off I think well he's not as good as he was all of last year in all likelihood.

But at least he can be 90% of that. That's going to be a huge help to this team. I didn't real, I'm just looking this up. His ERA was 280 the whole year. And he didn't get, he didn't even finish in the top 10 of the Siam. Man, 29 starts, 280 ERA. Is there a possible ask from the baseball gods to say, can we get the exact same Renele Blanco that the Astros got last year in 2025?

Now, according to field independent pitching, he did get a little lucky. Their actual best starters on that metric are Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. Well, let's face it. And that's okay. If he can be your three guy. You're losing a gold glover at third, but you're getting a goglover back at first. Yeah. And I do believe that Dubon, now,

we've always talked about his hitting, being a little bit more than a slap hitter, but I do believe his glove at second base, you're going to see not remarkable. improvement, but I would say sizeable. The field that Dubon will be able to cover will be greater than the field

that Jose Altova would have been able to cover at second base this year. That is correct. I do need a, I knew to step up in Jeremy's Pena's overall game. That's kind of a storyline that was on the back burner.

But yeah, what about getting his back going? Because you need to be better offensively. We have the callers saying that they're going to be barbecue chicken. It's not that. But it's also not one of the most feared formidable of the lineups in all of baseball, which it has been for a lot of this run that they've been on. Jeremy Penae went from a phenom

because he replaced a fellow phenom and had an incredible first season and an incredible postseason to becoming just a guy. Literally just a guy with the bat. And the gloves sometimes flood you down. You'd have some of those, not brain-dead, but mind-numbing drop balls,

didn't need to make it a difficult play. it made a difficult play. Yeah, we talk about OPS Plus with average being 100. His OPS Plus last year was 100. It's the average bat. Yeah. And I think for, now for value, you're not spending any money on them.

Right. That's good. And if you have an average bat and a premium glove at short, that's a good player. It's a plus player. Right. But can we get a little above average? Home run totals 22 to 10,

back up to 15. But there was a two-month stretch where it didn't leave the ball yard, right? Right. I don't envision him ever being a 25 guy, but I can see him between 17 and 22 with a lot of doubles. He's strong, though. He could get to 25. He just needs to lay off those sliders down and away, which everybody knows that. And it's not that easy. And he talked about it in Kent. One of the things he said is he's thinking too much in there. And he just got to let it go. Well, the reality, here's the thing that troubles me a little bit. it is that he can't hit them. Now, he's hit a few.

But largely, when you throw a slider to him, if it's a good play slider and it's got movement, Jeremy's going to swing at it. And miss. But wouldn't you think at some point, if you're a great athlete, Ross, and you continue to see the same type of pitches that it would be able to be a little easier to identify?

No. Or do you say, if a guy can't hit free throws, he may try to practice 100 free throws a game, if you're still a bad free throw shooter is a bad free throw shooter. Yeah, I mean, it's a sight thing and it's different pitchers. It comes out of their hands, different ways. And every, you know, if 20 pitchers throw you a slider, they're going to have 20 different shapes. Because here's the thing that we've got to start dealing with around.

If his batting average against pitchers doesn't dramatically improve, he's going to be nothing more than just a guy at shortstop. Because a slider is typically the second pitch thrown by most really good starting major league pitch. That's the reason why even though it puts a lot of pressure on your elbow and your forearm, today's youth are still throwing it because it does have a nasty bite that does confuse headers. Yeah. I mean, I can't. I've never heard of a complete baseball player that go, yeah, man, that Jeremy, that XYZ baseball player is great.

He has the fastball 500 feet. He can wait on a curb ball and smack it. Change up, no problem. Canada slider. Guys that can't hit sliders aren't great major league hitters. Yeah, that's, it happens. I mean, it's trouble with a breaking ball. He wouldn't be the only one.

Exactly. It happens. But my expectations of him, and I'm sure his own expectations of himself are, I want to be a feared member of this Astro's lineup. And if your sixth place hitter can't hit sliders, 7, 8, 9, not going to have much anybody on base to hit two. Are those guys, you know, are successful in getting some base hits. The only good news is this is his fourth year.

He's still 27. He can get better. He's young. You're Florida glassful. Let's go.