The Matt Thomas Show with Ross - Jake Kaplan Joins Matt To Discuss The ALDS Win and ALCS Game 1

Episode Date: October 11, 2019

Jake Kaplan of The Athletic joins Matt and Ross to breakdown the win over the Rays in Game 5 of the ALDS and the upcoming series against the New York Yankees in the ALCS

is the Matt Thomas show. 103 on Sports Talk 7 Island. Let's spend 10 quality minutes with our good friend Jake Kaplan from the athletic. Every Friday, see Jake with the Astros winning. You can't get rid of me. How are you, sir? I'm okay. I have to say, it was fun to hang out with you.

We don't usually, you know, we're usually just talking on the phone like this. We don't get to hang out very often. I know. Yeah, it is. And we'll see each other again down the road, that's for sure. give me something that hasn't been discussed yet, besides the excellent agarical. What else blew you away from yesterday? What I wrote about last night and what fascinated me the most was the first inning offense,

especially against the backdrop of kind of the offense disappearing for a few games against the Ray's exceptional pitching. And, you know, them jumping over Tyler Glasnell early capitalizing on his tell with. his glove position on his fastball versus his curveball. You know, that was the game, I thought. I mean, you know, that allows Cole to settle in and not have to worry about the Sogarde solo homer and just kind of, you know, cruise to do what he does. So, you know, those early hits stringing together singles, you know, and obviously Glass now figured it out after the first inning and they didn't get another hit until the seventh inning

against all the relievers. but, you know, that first inning was monumental. Where are we, and I've been looking a little bit, again, I don't think the Yankees have announced a start of yet, but where are we on the health of the Yankees? Because that feels like that has been a storyline for them this entire season. Yeah, they're pretty, I mean, relatively speaking, especially compared to most of the season,

I think they're pretty healthy. Aaron Hicks, their center fielder, switch hitter, is the one who I think is uncertain his status. but all their other big guys are back with Severino's back pitching so you know I think at this point in the year no one's feeling great you know on any of these teams and people are playing through stuff

but in terms of like availability they're probably in their best spot that they've been in a while compare and contrast if you can the Astro lineup and the Yankee lineup in your opinion we're both really good I'd say the Astros are a little more balanced left and right. But, you know, they're pretty similar in that their best hitters are, you know, their right-handed guys at the top of the lineup, really.

You know, their Yankees are a little bit more swing and miss and power reliant. The Astros, you know, obviously they struck out fewer than any other team, but still hit a lot of home runs. So, you know, the Astros finished, I think, with a slightly better OPS in the regular season, but both are so good that it's really going to come down to who shows up and performs against the other's pitching. Easy to say, yeah, it's a little different. So I'm going to give you just an open-ended answer or question to this one. How much do you think about this Astro lineup and their struggles against the rays?

And does that is just a great series against a really deep bullpen? Or do you say, hey, there's some concerns that still are bothering you going into the series against the Yankees? I think offense is suppressed in the postseason in general. And we see this every year. You know, Astros played a lot of bad teams in the regular season, not to diminish what they did. But, you know, this isn't the Mariners and the angels that are pitching that they're feasting on anymore. So all these teams that they face in the playoffs are going to have better pitching. You know, there's more attention to detail in the playoffs.

There's better game planning, more intense game planning. So, you know, I think because of those things, you're usually going to see less offense in the playoffs. So I don't know if it's, you know, as much of a concern is just the reality of the playoffs. You know, the raise of a better pitching step than the Yankees do up to bottom. But the Yankees have a much better lineup in the race. So it's going to be a much different series than we just saw for those five games. Jay Kaplan from the Athletic with us here on the Asterospeed, sports talk 790.

What does your gut tell you about who's going to start game one? Are you going to go with Paxton for the gangs? Yeah, I think so. My guess is Paxton v. Granky, but you know, I think they do have some home road split stuff going on with a few of their starters, namely Tanaka. So that could play into what they do.

I think Tanaka's better at home, so maybe he goes game three. But hopefully we'll find out this afternoon at the workout. All right. Astros will have a press cover. coming up. We'll carry some of that for you in the 2 o'clock hour. The easy thought on Zach Granky is far from spectacular postseason record. How much difference do you think it'll make for him? He gets to see the Yankees for the first time in this postseason in Houston, Texas,

as compared to pitching in front of the bright lights at Yankee Stadium. You know, I don't know. I don't know. I constantly question how much home field versus road matters. I mean, we saw a lot of the road teams win in these playoff games, you know, obviously not in the Astros race series, but in the other series. You saw the Nationals, for example, go to Dodgers Stadium of all places and win in game five. So, you know, I don't know how much that'll matter. I mean, it's also interesting to me, despite being in the other league for most of the year. Grunkey did pitch against the Yankees twice in the regular season, both times against the very diminished Yankees lineup where they were missing a lot of their best.

big players, but, you know, I think the hitters he did face, he did pretty well, so he could probably draw on some of that experience. What other intangibles do you see in this series? From a defensive standpoint, the Astros did a really, really good job. They didn't make a whole lot of base running mistakes. Give me two or three things beyond the obvious of, oh, great pitching versus good hitting lineups and vice versa on both sides. You know, I think the Bullpen, the Yankees' bullpen versus the Astros lineup will be interesting and vice versa.

I know that's kind of hitting versus pitching like you just said. Right. But, I mean, it's really, you know, that's probably where the biggest difference, you know, the Astros' biggest weakness and the Yankees' biggest strength is the bullpen. So, you know, I'm curious to see how the Astros, you know, alter the roster between rounds. And, you know, I think that'll be just an interesting, you know, dynamic every game is once the starter's out of the game, especially with the Yankees, who some of the guys aren't is built up. You know, how do they match up against the Astros lineup? Does Wade Miley make the next roster? I would have them off the roster, but, you know, it wouldn't shock me if they carried him since they carried him last round.

But my prediction is Miley off, straw off, peacock on, Brian Obrayu on. Kyle Tucker survives the second round. Yeah, I think, I think he'll lock. I think he might start some games. Yeah, it's funny because people have called the last couple of days. You know, because look, Redick has not looked good at the plate, but nor has Kyle Tucker. I'm just, I'm trying to balance of, hey, this kid needs a chance because the guy in front of him isn't killing it as compared to maybe the bright lights of a post. season series is too big, especially if you're putting now the championship series at bats in front of him.

Yeah, I think what the Astros could end up doing is giving Tucker one start early in the series against whichever pitcher they think he matches up better against than Reddick does, and giving him that chance to turn it around. I know he's only had one start and pinch hit opportunities, so it's a huge sample, but, you know, you're right, it might be not the best place for a rookie. to get its seat wet. So I think maybe they play around with that early in the series and then kind of settle on a matchup-based rotation for the latter half of the series.

Here's my prediction. Tell me if you agree or disagree. We will see Cole and Verlander in non-starting situations. I don't think we'll see either one of them pitch on short rest. Is that fair to say in this particular series? Or are you saying, hey, when we get to six and seven, all bets are off about anybody in an amount of rest? I'll bet they're off in six and seven for sure, but as of now, you know, if you map it out,

Frankie Verlander, Cole, that would set up Burlander for two and six and Cole for three and seven. So, you know, I'm not sure where the opportunity is to pitch them on short rest anyway. You know, I guess Burlander on no rest in game seven, or one day rest in game seven in relief. But, you know, that's kind of the byproduct of the Astros going to five games at the raises, but they don't have the luxury of mapping it out so that they could maximize the Verlain or Cole outings like they did in the ALDS. Last question. How much do you think a Ryan Presley could be used in the series? A lot. You know, he's one of their better relievers. And he only had that, you know, he had, well, I guess he had two outings, but one leverage outing in the DS. And it's tough to draw a huge sample of one outing that didn't go well.

So I think you'll see all the relievers, all eight of them that they carry. And, you know, Harris, Presley, Nozuna, you know, especially in early in the series when you're not going to use starters and relief, they're going to have to pitch high leverage in it. And you don't see Bryant Peacock making the second round roster? No, I have Peacock on. Okay. I think Peacock is a lock just because it's the Yankees. And, you know, he's probably their – him and Joe Smith are their two best pitchers. against right-handed hitters, and they have so many right-handed hitters.

So I think you carry both of those guys as basically right-hand specialists. Good stuff, as always, friend. We'll see you at the ballpark tomorrow night. Thank you for, as always. My pleasure, Matt. Jake Kaplan from the Athletic, Jake M. Kaplan on Twitter, if you want to follow him on the Astros Beat.