The McShay Show - CFP Picks: Indiana-Notre Dame, SMU-Penn State, Clemson-Texas, and Tennessee-Ohio State. Plus, Florida HC Billy Napier | The McShay Show

Episode Date: December 19, 2024

Welcome back to ‘The McShay Show’! Todd and Steve open with a first-round College Football Playoff preview, breaking down the key players and matchups to watch in each game. Then, Florida head coach Billy Napier joins the show to talk about DJ Lagway’s upside, the Gators’ rebuilding effort, and how to game-plan against the SEC’s CFP teams. (0:00) Welcome to The McShay Show! (1:13) College Football Playoff First Round Preview (3:15) CFP Preview: Indiana-Notre Dame (18:55) CFP Preview: SMU-Penn State  (32:45) CFP Preview: Clemson-Texas (47:05) CFP Preview: Tennessee-Ohio State (1:06:45) Florida Head Coach Billy Napier Joins the Show! (1:13:10) Evaluating QB DJ Lagway's Freshman Season (1:15:40) Navigating the Transfer Portal Timeline (1:20:00) Scouting Reports on the CFP SEC Teams (1:26:35) Previewing The Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Tulane vs. Florida The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Todd McShay Guests: Steve Muench and Billy Napier Producers: Tucker Tashjian, Mark Panik, Conor Nevins, and Daniel Comer Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I'm a goal guy, Mench. Don't I know it? Listen, everyone in this business is going to have a college football playoff preview, right? We know that. But here's my goal today. I want to strike the perfect balance between having the most comprehensive breakdown we can have, but also the most efficient preview that you can find. I haven't even told you this yet, Munch, but we're going on the clock.

10 minutes per game, no messing around. And when we're done with each game, we're going to take a chunk out of fan duel. that you can handle it, Mench. I'll do my best. I love your enthusiasm. Oh, and by the way, we've got Florida Gators head coach, Billy Napier, joining the show. You talk about a unique perspective he brings. His Gators faced off against three of the 12 college football playoff teams.

The clock is ticking, Stevie boy. Tick, pick, tick. Play that beautiful beat. Here we go. All right, so here's how this thing's going to go. Mention and I've kind of tasked each other with the opportunity. if you will, to take the most important thing that each team has to do. He's going to take one side.

I'm going to take the other in order to win this round one matchup, okay? In doing so, we decided to make sure we took opposite sides of the ball. So if I'm saying this is what, let's say Texas has to do, you're going to say what Clemson has to do, but we're going to focus on opposite sides of the ball. In doing this, we kind of put it all together, right? a season full of notes, tape study this week. Like we're not taking this lightly, I promise you. Tape study this week, analytics that we're pulling in to help kind of support both of our sides.

And then once we're done with that, we're each going to provide what's called key players. I hate it's like one X factor for each game. One, you know, one player who's got to, to me, it's if this player's doing his job and having a big game, it's pretty likely that the team that we're talking about. is going to wind up winning the football game. And then the third part of it is, and I'm not joking here, I've done some research, Mitch.

I want to absolutely boost the hell out of your fan dual accounts out there. So listen in as we go. We're going to break it down football-wise, a lot of film study. We're going to give you some key players that you've got to watch it. We've enjoyed on tape that we think are going to play

critical roles. And then we're going to do this. We're going to break the bank. All right. No more time to waste. Here we go. First game, Munch. Let's go.

Friday night, right? 8 p.m. Indiana and Notre Dame. You're looking at the brackets there if you're watching on YouTube. Indiana, Notre Dame, Indiana, the 10 seed, Notre Dame, the seven seed, playing in South Bend, touchdown, Jesus. It's going to be an awesome scene. I mean, all four of these games. Weather, probably going to be a factor, but I don't think it's going to affect either team more than the other.

I mean, my goodness, they're from the same state. Of course it's not. why don't you start it out? I'm taking Notre Dame in this game. You're going to take Indiana. Tell me how Indiana pulls off this upset, and I should point this out. Notre Dame favored by seven and a half.

I checked Fandall this afternoon. Check on my app. Favored by seven and a half points in this game. How does Indiana pull off the upset? And I'm starting the clock right now. I'm not messing around, bud. 10 minutes. I won't put it on, yeah, maybe I will put on the noise.

All right, ready, go. Okay, no one gives up fewer rushing yards. per game than Indiana in the country. And you've got to stop the wrong game if you're going to stop Notre Dame's offense. And if you're going to look at how you're going to stop really that Notre Dame offense, I think you want to go back and you want to look at that Northern Illinois tape. Because quarterback Riley Leonard from Notre Dame had a season low, 16 rushing yards. I think it was their second rushing lowest rushing total as a as a team.

And some of it's obvious. Some of it's just coached up, right? Guys were in gaps. Everyone was playing Gap Sound. People were getting off blocks late. They were staying on the same level. They were making it really difficult for running back Jeremiah, I love to get a clean look of where he should go.

One of the things I really liked that I think Indiana can also do in this game is they brought strong side pressure that made it difficult. It made them set the edge even better than they already had been. It made it difficult for Notre Dame to get outside and get anything going on the perimeter. The other thing I'll say about this is I think Indiana's zone defenses could give Notre Dame problems. Why? One, I think Riley Leonard is better against man that he is against zone. I think he's not as effective when he has to go against zone looks.

I also think that when you're playing zone, you're not turning your back. Riley Leonard has been a really effective scrambler down the second half of the season. You're in a better position to shut that down on the back seven. And also, I think it puts you in a better position to rally to quick hitters. If they tackle well in space, I mean, this is a very good Indiana front. You look at this and there's three, they had three all big 10 defenders. One at each level. I love C.J. West up front.

He wasn't even one of those guys. Really? CJ West defensive. Yeah, he wasn't. It was McCarer. The corner pawns and then Aiden Fisher, the linebacker, who I think is another player to keep an eye on. Because he's so instinctive.

He's so rangy. He's so tough. But again, C.J. West up front is going to be a problem for that interior offensive line. Look, it's going to come down to whether or not Notre Dame could run the ball. And that's been a strength for Indiana's defense. So that's a, it's a strength on strength matchup to me. if they stop it, can they win?

I guess is the big question. And maybe it's not the Indiana game. Maybe it's as we get deeper into the playoff. But I think that's the big question that a lot of people have that have studied this Notre Dame team, right? Yeah. Can you tell them that you've sped me up here that I'm like trying to get all this out right now? Yeah, I would try to rattle it all. Two minutes and five seconds.

I'm not trying to make it where you can't breathe. I'm just trying to make sure that we provide, provide those that are tuning in some efficiency here. Because I, it's all on me. I'm not a talker, right? I'm not a talker. But then like 55 minutes later, I'm on the same subject. So really quick, those own looks that I want to make up this point to, it forces Riley Leonard to be patient.

If he forces the ball downfield, he's going to put it in arms way. He's got to be patient and consistent. And I think that sometimes he struggles with that. He can make big plays. I think he's developed as a passer. But if you're going to make him dink and dunk down the field, he's more likely to make a mistake or for a drive to stall. you think you think if they force yeah i i've seen the patience at times and i think they're comfortable

you know they love throwing to the tight ends they like getting the backs involved like he he he's become better at taking the easier stuff i think i agree i agree but he's still it's still an issue in terms of he will force that throw every once in a while especially if this game is tight he'll get frustrated i mean he did at least in the northern illinois game where he got frustrated and trying to push the ball downfield all right other side of the ball and i don't think if you've if you've tuned into this show if you've been you know one of our friends of the show here and have hung out for a while you probably heard me say it a couple times because i think it was just so obvious yeah it's not always so obvious just even watching on like the game broadcast but for noder dame i think

number one thing, if they're going to win this football game and take care of businesses and more than a touch, slightly more than a touchdown favorite, they've got to sell out and getting pressure on Curtis Rourke, the quarterback for Indiana. Rush five, minimum, obvious passing downs, rush five. And the reason I say that Ohio State and Michigan, okay, those were Indiana's two worst outings offensively, right? And it's not surprised with an immobile quarterback and Rourke that they were also, I use worst past protection days.

Okay. I mean, we, I remember coming on live after that Indiana, Ohio State game earlier in the season. It was the first thing I said, like that first drive was a thing of beauty. I was like, oh shit,

we got a game on our hands. Like, we're all right. They can block their front four. I'm telling you, I like those receivers. They got four receivers, Indiana does.

They, they can, if they can block. the front four. These four receivers are going to be a problem. They were on the first drive. They drive down seven nothing. They kind of hung around and fought for the first quarter. But after that first offensive drive, Ohio State was like, uh-uh, beat our corners. And you did on the first drive, but we're going to make you get the ball out quickly to do it. Right. And so here's what I looked up, nearly half the time that Ohio State and Michigan, it wasn't just, it was, remember,

it was Ohio State did a brilliant job after the first drive, but it had been done to a slightly lesser effect, but still effective. It had been done by Michigan. So nearly half the time, it was like 48% of the time that Ohio State and Michigan blitzed, meaning bringing five, not like zone blitz where you're dropping one, bringing one, I'm talking about pressures of more than four pass rushers, okay? Nearly half the time they sent pressure. they sent a blitzer, Mench, they got pressure on Rourke. That's remarkable. That is not like if you're, if you're Indian is offensive line, that's a nightmare.

Compare that to the other 10 games Indiana played versus the blitz. I'm talking about the blitz. 20, a red around 25%. So cut that number in half. So it, it was, I mean, it was twice the twice more effective in those in those 10 games, but they did it with more consistency, Michigan did. They did it with more consistency, Ohio State did. And by the way, we talk about the X's and O's and Jemies and Joe's.

They just got better jimmy's and Joe's. So if you're Notre Dame, yeah, I look at this Notre Dame defense has relied heavily on its defensive line, it's front forward to get pressures. And they haven't been great at it. More pressures than they have, obviously, more pressures than sacks. But like the percentages are high. in terms of pressures than they have sacks. But this has not been a great pass rush defense, you know, per se.

It really hasn't been. And you look at that defensive line, it's generated pressure on its own. But of the team's 30 sacks, 24 and a half have come from the defensive line. So what does that tell me? And I'm not saying that the linebackers have to get home and be the ones that are, you know, accumulating the sacks and the pressures. But I am saying that these linebackers are going to have to get more involved and be effective in terms of when they're turned loose and in maybe the occasional

cat blitz, the corner coming up the edge, safety getting involved, whatever it is. The back seven is going to have to be more involved, I think, in this game. Because you just, you can't back off of Rourke and let him do what he does best. You tell me, what is Indiana do best? Indiana likes to run the ball, create balance, and get Rourke a clean pocket. and they'll, they'll hit on some quick stuff. Their receivers are like just fearless over the middle, make tough catches.

But all of a sudden, they'll balance, balance short game, intermediate game, but then they'll pop you for one, right? So in this game, and it's also worth noting, excuse me, I'm still battling this cold.

It's driving me nuts. Howard Cross is defensive linemen for, for Notre Dame is back. And again, it's got to be more than just a front four, but the front four is, is going to play a critical part in this. He had the high ankle sprain and missed the last three games.

He's still second on the team, Mitch, with, what was it, four, four and a four sacks in just nine games played. All right. So getting him back, you would think, if he's close to 100 percent, is going to be a big boost for this Notre Dame line. It's also worth mentioning this. And I went back and watched these tapes. Notre Dame secondary, which is highly touted, right?

And obviously Benjamin Morrison, I'll get to that in a second. Benjamin Morrison, the injury potential may not be a first rounder now because of the injury, but at least the second round draft pick, very highly regarded in the NFL. The secondary against Notre Dame showed vulnerability, I thought. Jaden, Maya, I think it is, 360 passing yards, three touch. in that game. I saw some some vulnerability there, right? Also allowed 264 pass yards and three touchdowns against Louisville. Why is that important? Why are those two games important?

Because if you look at it, bud, those are the best two pass offenses that they faced. Think about it, right? Their biggest wins were versus run heavy offenses, right? A and M. A and M, like, yes, it was before they made the quarterback shift and it wasn't as run heavy, but it still was. Like, Wigman wasn't effective in that game. And they ran the ball 38 times compared to 30 pass attempts in a game that they were trailing, you know?

And then Georgia Tech, I mean, that's all they do, run the football, Navy, Army, you know what I mean? Yeah, not right with you. So the one thing that can kill you, if you're Notre Dame, and the one area that you're like, we've got some vulnerability is if we don't get to the quarterback, back, we might not be that great in the back end. Maybe we're not as good as everyone wants to say that we are, right?

So, and I do think it's worth mentioning. Like the true freshman Leonard Moore, he's been really good. Step day, he stepped up for, uh, with Benjamin Morrison ever since he went down. He's been better though. Like, I know he's, he's confident. He's aggressive. He's physical. He's good in coverage.

He's, like, he's good. And he'll only get better with more experience. He's better versus the run, though. And I think that's secondary, like I said, there's vulnerability there. So if you're Notre Dame, my big thing for Notre Dame in this game, you got to get to Rourke. Take him out of his comfort zone, move him off his spot, take away that option in the passing game. And then all of a sudden, I think Notre Dame should be able to just grind it away on the offensive side with really the three-headed monster, including Riley Leonard in terms of the carries that are spread out.

in their run game. All right, feature players, guys that if they're a player or more that are critical to their team winning in this game, in your opinion based off of all the work you've done. I'll take the All Big Ten linebacker, Aiden Fisher, who's great in coverage, who can rush the passer, and it's going to have to be outstanding against the run. I'm taking a guy from Indiana's defense because, you know, that's the side I was taking of what they need to win. I think Aiden Fisher is a player to watch. I love C.J. West up front. I think he's going to be really good, too. But I think, Aiden Fisher, the number four, the linebacker is a guy to keep an eye on.

If he has a monster game, they have a chance. I'm going to go with the Indiana receivers. Okay. You've got to get the ball to them, and we've got to find, I mean, even if it's getting the ball out in two and a half seconds, two, you know, close to two seconds, however it is. Elijah Surrott, Omar Cooper Jr. He's a sophomore. The rest of these guys are seniors. They're veterans.

Like, this is it, right? Elijah Surrott, big receiver. Omar Cooper Jr. is a sophomore. Miles Price and Keishon, Kishon Williams. It combined for 20, 20, over 2,200, almost 2,300 receiving yards this year. 143 receptions, 21 touchdowns. Surrott and Cooper are the two to watch in terms of big plays, because I think Indiana is going to need big plays in this game to keep up.

They're averaging 19 yards per catch combined. So to me, if the Indiana receivers are having a day, that means it's going to be a long game. This is going to be absolutely a four-quarter fight for Notre Dame. All right, prediction, Munch, what do you got? I got Notre Dame. I think they cover. And I think the reason is that their offensive lines

have the same starting five since the Navy game. I think it's really settled that offensive line down. It's steadied it. And I really like some of the players on the Indiana front. I just don't think they're very deep. And there are some guys on the inside. Like James Carpenter is a very disruptive run defender. he's a really good interior pass rusher,

but he's light, and I think they're going to have some success moving those guys around. And I think that Notre Dame's going to run the ball well enough to ultimately control this game. All right, there you see the numbers for Fandau, if you're watching along on YouTube. Seven and a half is the spread, like we said, minus 280 to win outright.

And over unders are 51.5. Notre Dame wins this game, but I'm going with the Indiana cover. I think it's a four-quarter battle. I actually think this will be the best of the four college football playoff around one games. And it'll kick the thing off beautifully on night one. I also like the under 51 and a half more than I actually probably like the cover for Indiana. Frozen conditions.

Indiana struggles to protect. Notre Dame struggles to throw the ball. I think this is going to be a short game. I think like normally these games are grinding out like right around four hours. hours, especially with the playoff and the commercials and all that. I think this is going to be like a three and a half hour game. I think I think Leonard, Jeremiah Love is a dude, Judarian Price. I mean, those guys have averaged almost seven yards per carry together and have racked up 36 rushing touchdown.

So I like, I like to keep it on. No one wants to bet the under, right? Well, that's where Fandu will get. It's too short. Yeah. Yeah, life's too short. Bet the over. Ice man, Iceman, Elio and Bernoni are.

They're a good friend from Richmond, you know, overs, overs, overs, the hockey. I get it, but I like the under in that game. All right. Second game on the slate, noon kickoff Saturday. What an unbelievable weekend this is. You get a Friday night game. You go to bed around 1 a.m. after you've kind of cooled down and relaxed.

You wake up the next morning. You got a little game day to get warmed up. Then right away, noon kick, SMU at Penn State. I assume it's going to be a whiteout, right? Penn State's minus six and a half in this. And by the way, I blew through the 10 minutes in the first one. That was all my fault. Yeah, we're going to get the Oscar music for you.

We're going to have to play you off. Yeah, like Jimmy Valvano. He's like this guy in the back, this guy. He thinks I care about some red light. I'll take my time this round. I'll tell you that. All right. I'm starting the clock again.

Let's see if we can beat it here. SMU at Penn State minus six and a half, noon kickoff on Saturday. What do you got? I'm covering SMU, so you've got Penn State. In order to take care of business and move on to round two, like most people expect they will, what does Penn State have to do? Don't overthink it, man.

I don't want them to look at SMU and be like SMU has been vulnerable to the past, but really strong against the run. Your strength, if your Penn State, is that running game, run the ball. So play to your strengths. Play to your strengths and don't worry about, don't try to adjust your game plan to attack their,

weakness. I think you need to prove that you're the, you know, you're the big dog, you're the alpha on the block. That's what they should be doing. I want Kachon Allen to get 20 plus carries. I want them to run downhill. I love like one of the issues you have with SMU is they have undersized what about Singleton too? Well, Singleton, you're going to mix in. Listen, you're going to get mixed in Singleton. You're going to mix in Warren. The reason I like Allen, he's B-Y-O-B baby, he's bringing his own block. He's so physical. You want to tackle him on his 20th carry when it's cold and it's windy. For those kids coming out of Texas, it's going to be going to be interesting. Those kids have been really tough and played really hard all year.

But that's a big back running downhill at you. I love that scheme and how much conflict it's going to put those linebackers in. You have guys, multiple guys. You can have four guys in the same backfield who can carry the ball. At times you have Drew Aller, the quarterback can keep it. You'll have Ty Warren in there. You'll have Singleton and Allen in the same back. You won't have Bo Perbula for the short yardage.

No, you want. I would love that in the red zone. That would have been nice. That would have been a nice addition. But I'll say this, when you put linebackers in conflict, they're a little slower to react. You have smaller linebackers for them. I went back and I watched the Boston College tape because they had some trouble. They had some troubles with the Boston College running game. And when Boston College did really well was pull offensive linemen and get up to the second level. And they also did great job with their inside zone, which kind of creates natural combo blocks and double teams. They get up to the second level. I think Penn State can do. do the same. Don't overthink this. Feed those running backs. Don't try to turn, Drew Allen, you know, don't give him 30 passing attempts in this game. Run, run, run. All right. Yeah, and then play action to Tyler Warren. But I, I think Tyler Warren's going to be kept a little bit in check. It's interesting. You say that because SMU has been pretty good against a run, you know, so.

They have fucking one of the best. But trust, but trust what we've got. Right. Throw whatever you got at us. We're Penn State. Like, you're coming to our home. You haven't seen what we can do yet. And I also, I'm very. That's cute. You're good versus the run in the ACC. That's cute. I have more respect for SM you than that.

But yeah. No, no, I'm saying, you're talking about a mindset. You're talking about a mentality going into this game. Yes. And so the mentality is that's cute. Like your, your run defense numbers are cute. Like that's, but come on. Come on into Happy Valley.

It's freezing cold. And we're going to play a different brand of football. That's what you're saying. Yeah, our offensive line is. Yeah, our offensive line. I think is playing the best that's played all year coming off that Oregon game. They should have a lot of confidence about their ability to move, move guys.

All right, I'm going to go to the other side ball. What does SMU have to do? How can they pull off this upset? I already mentioned six and a half point dogs. SM, and I studied this, man, and it was kind of like, all right, what can you do? Because this is a challenge, obviously. You're outmanned physically.

They're bigger, they're stronger. You've had success running the football. but what can we go in and do and kind of shock them with? Because if you're going to pull off an upset, yeah, you've got to get turnovers, special teams, all those things. Well, what can we do to kind of shock the system a little bit? SMU has got a chance to win this game if Kevin Jennings can strike on early downs. That's my theory. Why do I say that?

Let me explain. First off, SMU is an inside zone running team, okay? And you know how much I love Burchard Smith. I think, you know, we talked about the Tyrone Tracy. late round guy who could be effective in the NFL former wide receiver at running back speed explosiveness all that but they're an inside zone running team and they're like they're back they're undersized compared to the defensive front this is not a big physical offensive front they're back breschard smith who i love is undersized right and and i think underappreciated but he's

undersized he's a dynamo but he's not someone that you're going to line up and go run at this defense. Penn State excels. If you really study them, they actually, I think, you know, as great as their edges are,

including Abdul Carter. Like, they have some trouble at times, like breaking on the outside, the, you know, contain and those sorts of things. But inside run, like,

uh-uh. They don't, they don't give that up. So, so what do we do? The mind's spinning. And I was going through this today, sitting on a ferry,

if you will, trying to think, like, where do I go with this? When you watch on tape, Penn State, early on early downs first and second down a lot creep a guy up they are like uh-uh you're not running the football on us early downs now we'll get to third down we'll get creative we'll do different things

or we'll back off our safeties we'll give you a two high shell with the two safeties but first and second and especially on first downs the first and second down there's a tendency creep a guy up so he leaves a single single high shell single safety back there right and when they do that they're vulnerable to the past. They can be vulnerable to the past. Now, obviously you have to protect. But I even, then I started going through some of the numbers. I went to PFF.

Kevin Jennings has been at his best against single high safeties. And now all of a sudden I'm like, hmm, okay. And that makes sense. What quarterback isn't better against single high safeties than the two high safeties? Mel Kuiper, a good friend tried to ban two high safeties from, from the NFL game. We get it. It makes it more difficult to throw down the field.

Of course. But he's been, but not. not only has been better, he's been, he ranked fourth among 133 passers match. I didn't know this, but it like, it backs up what you see. Wow. Fourth out of 133 passers in terms of single high safe, what he does against single high safeties. Now, listen, you can knock PFF for like the run blocking grades.

There are conversations there. But when I use analytics, I try to make sure, like, what's the stuff they can't muck up? What's not like, there's a single safety? All right. Like, what are the things that I can. absolutely rely on. I can rely on that. Okay. And so now we now we know he's like not only efficient, like one of the best in the country against that. So now early in downs, first and second down, they come out and instead of banging our head with the inside zone against this defensive front,

let's take some shots. And yes, he's better intermediate than he is vertical. Jennings says, I've seen that on tape. But they need to be aggressive on first and second downs. They're not going to see many favorable single high safety looks on third and three plus. So why why try to throw into that where your quarterback's not as effective and the defense is very effective when you can take some shots on early downs? One thing I like about the Mustang's offensive attack is that they have spread the ball out. So it's not about force feeding it to one guy on a certain down. It's about, okay, now I'm Jennings.

take the snap work that guy negotiate the single high safety your single job is first of all at the line of scrimmage recognize what we got coverage then your second job is make sure you're negotiating him keeping an eye on him but also making him think all right I'm going right now come back to the left I'm going left whatever it is right so that's going to be critical in this game as well but those receivers I talked about it he he spread the ball out 10 different kinds of have at least 10 catches for the season. More impressive, seven of them have at least 20 catches. Their leading receiver has 38. So this is all about what's open, not forcing it to somebody, okay? An addendum to all this, though, here's the addendum. They would wrap it up.

Jennings can't hold on the ball too long. Can't do it like he did against him. And I got another number I read today. I don't know if it's precisely accurate, but he was about three to three half seconds he held the ball against Clemson we saw what did we see you and i both talked about it after the game that night drifting drifting and like and then started spinning field ghost and all that's yeah but it was like drifting back right so he can't hold up earlier in the season and most other games he's been better but against i think it was pit that i read like it was a 2.5 by comparison so that's that's a big addendum there so there's going to be balance they i'm not saying throw the ball every first and second down like there's got to be

balance. But they've got to identify those friendly passing opportunities, single high safeties when they can take advantage and they've got to be aggressive on first and second down or else Penn State's just going to grind them to death in this game, I think. All right, player just to say one other thing really, really quickly about Jennings. One of the notes that did take that I had about the Penn State offense is do not take your foot off the gas if you get ahead, man. I don't think that ACC championship game was a fluke. I think Jennings is going to play from kick to that final whistle and he's going to give you every i don't care whether i don't care about that atmosphere if if penn state gets comfortable they're in trouble because that kid i think

will play until the bitter end yeah i mean it's proven he's no he's a dog he's an absolute dog the more i watch the more i just love i just love the way he plays uh who jumps up for you who's the guy that it's the pen set oh line it's the pens state o line it's the pens i if they continue to play the way they did against Oregon to me. And again, it wasn't clean. There was breakdowns in Paspero. There was a couple of misassignments in the run game. But overall was the most encouraging performance I had seen.

I mean, there were some scenes against a very good Oregon front. And I thought they played with attitude. I thought they played with physicality, aggressiveness. To me, that was the most encouraging performance I had seen from that group all year. And it has me excited about what they, about them potentially making a run, especially with the path they have. I'm going to go the other side of the ball. And I just mentioned how it's not about one receiver, but I am encouraged by what I've seen recently from an SMU receiver.

And I think he's going to have to have a big game. That's Roderick Daniels. He's the leading receiver with 38 catches, I mentioned, but it's not much higher than the next guy. It's like 34, 30, 20, you know. But he's averaging 16 yards per catch. Not huge numbers. I get it.

But he's really emerged in the last six games. 27 of those 38 catches have come in the last six. Four hundred and fifty nine yards in the last six. Not a big dude. Going to get pushed around a little, but let's find ways to get him in space. Like those intermediate crossing routes, in cutting routes, get him a ball in a little bit of space and he can create small, quick,

five, nine, one 85, somewhere in that range. He also like get the ball in his hands. They've used them running back, handed the ball off to him, slot receiver. and the return game as well. I think he's got to play a huge game if SMU is going to, and all of them do. But I think he's going to have to be the guy amongst a handful of guys

that step up in the passing game. Who do you like in this one? I mentioned I already, let's pull up the fan dual graphic here. I mentioned six and a half is the spread. Minus 315 for Penn State. Ooh, whoa, it's shifted. It's eight and a half now.

It's eight and a half. Sorry, Fanduel. Okay. I like Penn State. Again, I like the, I like the favorite to cover. I do. I just think they're going to be too big,

too physical, too much. So, yeah, I'm taking Penn State. All right. I love SMU, man. I just,

I just think Penn State's the better team at home by far. Of the four games, I'm going to, I'm going to shoot straight. This is the one I'm the least dogging on. Okay. Okay.

We already won money on Friday night. We already, like, just stuck a little dagger. Wait to the next two games. We're going to finishing touches, okay? But I, and I do worry about all those Miami kids and Texas kids from SMU. I don't know which, which there are more of, Miami or Texas, it feels like. But I worry about in these temperatures, but it is a noon kick, so it ain't going to be that bad, right? Penn State, though,

now that it's going to be cold, man. It's going to be cold. I know it's going to be cold, but And windy. But Penn State won by just one point against Minnesota, beat USC by three, only beat Bowling Green by a touchdown at home earlier in the year. I know it's a different vibe playing bowling green earlier in the year

that it is, that it is in a college football playoff home game, probably a whiteout and all the madness. But I just, I think the way I said, like you talked about it before, the way SMU is going to fight for four quarters with Jennings. I think they could backdoor cover this thing and make it a little bit, you know,

especially eight and a half of that. All right. So there we are. All right. Number three game. Clemson at Texas. It's a four o'clock game. As you see there,

we're talking about Clemson. They didn't sneak in. They won their way in. But certainly was not in a conference with SMU in the year it had. And Miami in the year it had, we certainly did not think. that Clemson was going to be one of these 12 teams, but here we are. And hats off to Clemson.

This is the biggest spread in round one. This is Texas minus 11.5, 4 p.m. Eastern kick on Saturday, started out Mench. You take Clemson. How do they pull off this upset? I think office coordinator Garrett Riley and quarterback gate club have to be near perfect. And I'll start with Riley. Like, you're not going to line up and just run the ball against Texas. I mean, Phil Mofa, the running back from Clemson is averaging 2.4 yards

per carry over the last four games. Their offensive line does not match up well with Texas's defensive front, especially on the interior where Mofa's at his best. So what are you going to do? You're going to have desired quarterback runs. You're going to get your wide receivers involved, misdirection. You're going to supplement the running game of the short passing game. He's going to have to be perfect in terms of the game plan and as a play caller.

I think he'll do other things. Like he's got to buck all his tendencies. If he goes in there and runs the same play that he's been running in the same situation out of the same formations. They're going to be in trouble. They're going to be in trouble. They have to buck tendencies. They got to move the pocket a little bit for Klobnik. And then Klobnik's got to be near perfect against a team that is, you know, 10th in the country in sacks, third in the country and interceptions.

I think most importantly for him is if he sees a running lane, take it. I want to see him make plays with his feet. I don't care if it's our four yards. Maybe he gets a 15 yarder. Maybe he breaks one. He's done that before we've seen that. He's going to have to make plays like he did early against. against SMU where he tucks the ball and looks like he's going to run. And oh, he finds a receiver downfield for a touchdown. He's going to have to do those kind of pull the rabbit out of the hat for him. Because look, I just think they are, you know, this is the hardest one for me.

They are so overmatched when I look at the trenches that that's my concern. So it's going to take a heroic effort from Clubnik and it's going to take a perfect game from their play caller and game planner. I don't disagree. And I mean, why not? shine if you're club nick i mean this is this is your shot great by the way he's been great even in the smu game i was surprised at how much pressure that he was making plays with guys in his face he's making plays with his feet i was i mean he has won me over late in the season with how well he's played

it's just too bad that i mean i don't think they're talented enough up front to really compete with the elites in college football right now for texas i'm going to go kind of with the opposite mindset if you will from what you said with penn state let's just do what we do best, dare them to beat us. I think Texas is going to come out and attack. Okay. And there's a few reasons why. Now, I want to preface this, like, this is going to seem a little like contrarian to

what everyone might think. It's like, oh, we're bigger. We got a great offensive line. Let's run the football. Let's be balanced. Let's think, let's just get out of Dodge, right? And Texas has been great at that. How many times when we watch a Texas game at the end and we were just,

unsatisfied. Right. Like, you know there's more out there, right? Vanderbilt jumps to mine. I think Arkansas was another game like that. Yeah. I mean,

those are just those games, yeah. Right. I think you come out guns blazing if you're Texas. And Clemson's defense, like, listen, Clemson's secondary is fun to watch.

I didn't really. I said, I'm not studying draft prospects to that group. I'd say they get some pups. They've got some pups in that secondary, but they're, they come from like great breeding, you know,

Like these, they're, they came ready to play. And the beauty and the fun part of watching a match is the Clemson trust these guys. They play a ton of man to man coverage. It's like, I've read somewhere it's like the, I don't know, the top like 15 in the, in the nation or something, very high percentage of man to man coverage. And they're doing that with young guys. You would think they'd mix in zone, you know, take some pressure off these young guys. They haven't. They've thrown into the wolves and they've held up.

You look at Avion Terrell, Ashton Hampton, Jaden Lucas. Those guys combine those three guys, 18 past breakups and five interceptions this year. So it's kind of been the strength or one of the strengths of this Clemson team. Conversely, Quinn Ewer's numbers versus owner so much superior than they are versus man coverage. I mean, you'd expect him to be good versus zone. He's a veteran quarterback. He's seen it all. He shouldn't be confused.

but you got a lot of and I know they don't have what they had a year ago, right, with Xavier Worthy and A.D. Mitchell, but they still got a ton of talented receivers and speed and athleticism, right? And so you would think we'd be winning one-on-ones and exploiting guys in man-covers. They haven't. It's been inconsistent. He's been inconsistent. Yeah.

Right. Okay. So how does Texas win? I think by winning their one-on-ones on the outside. Okay. And why lean into it since it's the strength of Clemson's defense? Because I saw Texas in a loss to Georgia. This is where, yeah.

Break out. Yeah. Break out at wide receiver. I mean, it was, it was like finally. All right. We got our dudes. And guess what? It wasn't Isaiah Bond. Isaiah Bonn was a freaking liability.

I mean, you go back and look at like frustrating all season, but a liability against Georgia. He had the drop slash the drop that turned into an interception. And it was an illegal shift on that play by him. So it was two errors on that play. Then offensive pass interference a little bit later, then almost immediately after the offensive pass interference had a second penalty, you know, right there. Yeah. I don't know if he's not 100% healthy and he's pressing.

I don't know if Isaiah Bond is in his head. I do think that a little bit of time off can only help, whether it's physical or mental or a little bit of both. But even without him, okay, I'm going after Clemson. What I saw from them, the trio, Matthew Golden, DeAndre Moore and Silas Bolden, they were awesome in that game. 312 receiving yards on 19 catches and a touchdown. We just haven't seen that. with golden, best deep threat of all of them. Get this, you ready?

13 of the 20 passes that have been attempted. That's not a big number. 13 of 20 passes attempted beyond 25 yards this year. He's been on the receiving end or the targeted end, I should say. Seven of those 13 have been catches, and three of those seven catches went for touchdowns. So he's going to be your big play guy. He has been your big play guy.

We saw it against Georgia. We've seen it throughout the year. DeAndre Moore, more of a kind of like your official. guy, but he stepped up and he was, he was a compliment in this last game to golden. He needs to continue to have that role. And then silence bold, I know he only only had two catches, but my God, he took over that fourth offensive drive for, for Texas. I mean, like, he's like a lightning bolt, a tiny one, 168 pounds, but he's a lightning bolt

just bouncing off a gunter home. So, yes. So listen, 60% of the throws for viewers this year, been within five. five yards of the line of scrimmage. But when we've seen in first quarters, when they come out on the script, know what they want to do and attack, they've had success. I think they need to bring that mentality until this game's out of reach. I'll be interested to see.

Who jumps out to you, player? It's the skill guys for Clemson, Antonio Williams, Brian Westgo, Jr., the tight end, Jake Brenningstool. I think these guys can make some plays. I think they have talent at those positions. It's about getting the ball. But I will say this, they got to catch everything clean. No, anything that comes, any drops, any kind of deflection is like chum in the water for that Texas defense.

They will be all over in a drop or a deflection could quickly turn into an interception. So I think they're going to have to get those guys in space. I think they're going to have to get them involved in the running game, Williams and Westgo. And I think for that, for those reasons, those three guys could be a big part of this game. If Clemson has any chance, I think they've got to make plays. Yeah. I mean, I could say gun or helm. I think he'll be a part of it.

But I got to go back to that trio of receivers. And truthfully, if you're going to get man-to-man coverage, Golden's got to be the guy. He was the guy last game. He's been the guy a couple times this year. Can't trust Isaiah Bond. If you get it from him, great. I mean, then we're often running.

But I think that Matthew Golden is going to have to be the guy. He's emerging, call that last game, his emergence, whatever you want to call it. But he, we're going, we're going after Clemson and Golden's going to be my primary. Prediction. I guess I get some fun ones here. Go ahead. You start. What does that mean?

I'm excited. Look, it's a big number. It's 11.5. Right? Yes. Yes. Texas minus 11. 5.

Minus 4.50 is the money line. I got everyone covering. 51. Yeah, you suck. 51.5 is the, is the over under. Well, wait to the last one. The last one's my curveball, I guess. But yeah, no, I think Texas covers.

I just look, I don't. I think Clemson fans think I hate Clemson. I mean, Clay Club, Kate Club Nick has really grown on me. I'm surprised it took this long to come up. I didn't even think about it when I said, you cover Clemson, how they pull off the upset here? I didn't even think about it. Clemson fans are, are like skipping past year.

I don't want to hear a word. What's the deal with giving him? Not a word out of your mouth, man, about Clemson again. I can't, listen, I can't speak highly enough about Club Mac down the stretch, man. I really am impressed, but again, I don't, I don't think they're a well-rounded enough team to be to Texas. Are you ready for this? Get your notes page out on your phone, okay?

Or get a pen and paper because you're old. I got it. I got it. I'm not going to say it twice, Mitch, okay? Few things you're going to keep in mind for this matchup. Number one, I don't see Clemson put in a lot of points on the, board. I just don't see the home to score. I really don't. I think the over

under on Clemson is 19 and a half. I would go under. I think this could be like a 13, 16 point full game performance from Clemson, okay? Got it. But take Texas. I agree that you might suck,

but you're right on this one. You're Mr. Chalk, but this time you're right. Take Texas. Texas is going to pull this one out. I also think it's going to be low scoring. So anything you're doing on Fanduel, if you're looking, like, look in my eyes, do you think I'm messing around here? A couple of times we'll give me some heaters and we've been, we've been, well, we were right like five out of, four out of six times, I think. But this time,

run with me here. Texas wins, low scoring with everything you do, okay? Here's one that's real specific. This is my number two. I guess that the first one was really two things. My number two, and this is the most important one. This one messed up, Mitch. You're going to think I'm sick. consider the third quarter under 10 and a half points. People are watching. They're like, what the fuck is wrong with McShay?

What happened to him? You're all right. You know how I am. I like a rabbit hole. I get into the, and don't wait. Don't wait for the first half to unfold. Just take it right now.

Let me skip to the third point. Okay. All right. Here we go. And I'll come. This is a rat hole. Every time I watch tape or watch a game of Texas, it's the same thing.

come out aggressive. There's the offense. I see it. If they get a sniff of a lead, like a half a point lead, if they get any kind of lead, it's like, all right, trust our defense.

We're good. We're good. Don't put the ball in our play. It's like, all right, we're up by three. Better down. Okay. And so in the second half,

it's like every time I come out and watch a third quarter of a Texas game, it's like, what happened? Where's the aggressiveness? Where are the shots? And then all of a sudden, what happens then? They let teams back in. And then now they're going to get a little bit aggressive in the fourth quarter.

The third quarter is the money spot. I went back and looked. You ready for this match? I am sick. Of all the things you were to talk about tonight, this is the most excited about. I know. This is the upset special. You're like, I found something.

I had covered something. There have been more than 10 points scored at just twice in the third quarter of Texas's last 12. games and the spread is 10 and a half take the under trend right there that's he called trend and now and then by going back to my third point we're rotating here but they all play together point two and point three point three is keep an eye on this in game if you are a sick oh and you're in and you're betting the in game stuff if texas gets a lead unless they're going to go completely against what they've done all season long and what sark believes in and and the belief they have in that defense start going under for everything they are going to run the football and trust their defense.

And that game's going to end fast if they get a lead in the second half. All right. Fourth game. I feel like I got to take a shower after that. Tennessee and Ohio State. Definitely the, you know, just the big name matchup, the eight versus nine, Ohio State, all the storylines coming in, Tennessee, buying, buying up all the tickets, you know, all the drama you could have.

imagine. Let's bottom line this thing. Ohio State's minus seven and a half. It's the night game, prime time game. We're coming on. Let me remind everyone right after this game, you think this is fun tonight. Like we're coming on Saturday night. This is the, I promise you, of all the stuff we've done over the last two and a half months, this is the one I'm most excited about. Like the opportunity to come on and just live reaction. We obviously will have it in the can from the night before, but three games back to back to back where we can actually focus. It's not like a normal Saturday where it's like 17 games and I wasn't watching Alabama now they're in a dog fight against vanderbiltre chasing games like like a gambler but after the game we're going to be on

live reaction show on YouTube I'll tweet it out mensch'll tweet it out at at scouts ink munch that's m u.nc h for those not watching on on youtube now but we'll be on YouTube and can't wait to have everyone join us there we'll answer some questions we'll be there um now Tennessee, Ohio State, as I said, 8 p.m. minus seven and a half Ohio State. What does Ohio State have to do to write the ship after that disastrous Michigan game? Look, man, this was a tough one for me. They've not run the ball the last two games. Both games are at home.

They didn't run the ball well against Indiana. I know that games a blowout. But go back and look at those numbers. If Henderson doesn't break that long run at the end of the game, they didn't really run the ball that well consistently against Indiana. didn't run the ball well against Michigan. But here's the thing. They've got to stay committed to the run.

So it's some of the other stuff that we've already talked about in other games. And they're going to have to get some of the direction. And I truly believe because they don't trust their protection. They don't. There's a lot of issues. I mean, I think their offensive line is a mess. We've talked about it all year.

They lost a potential first tackle off the board in Simmons. The guy, Seth McLaughlin, I think won the Remington Award as the best center in the country. And he's gone. I mean, they are a different offensive line up front. a hard time creating lanes in the run game.

And now you're facing a Tennessee front that's super talented. I think Chip Kelly's got his work cut out for him in this game. Timer just went off, by the way, for all three games. Keep going. So in case someone heard about that. That I think he can do in this game is, well, one, I'll say this. They need to get Jeremiah Smith involved somehow. And I know it's going to be tough against that pass rush.

You have the most talented receiver in the country. I think you've got to take some shots downfield and steal a little bit from your book. You do it on early downs. You do it on on at times. The Tennessee's not expecting it it so they don't tee off on you because they're going to have a hard time holding up. But you've got to take some shots downfield with Jeremiah Smith. I like the way that the Kelly will the chip will reduce receivers inside. So they're kind of right next to the tight end. They're kind of tough to sort it out. They run some mess routes. I could see them taking a like a shot or two really early in this game to Jeremiah. I think listen, if they hit one of those,

That place goes nuts. It kind of could change the complexion of the game. I think they absolutely have to do it. Could back off the run defense a little bit, which they need to do. I think that's a big part of what they're going to have to do. And then listen to this. It's tough as I think it's going to be to run the ball. They have had success.

You talked about the Penn State defense. That Ohio State game, Ohio State had some success getting outside on some speed option stops, some pitches. They could do that. I think Tennessee's defense is. going to have the speed to kind of defend those runs well. So it's going to be tough flooding, but they have to stay committed to this. Listen to this stat.

Over the past two seasons, Will Howard is three and six in games with 30 or more passing attempts. This year, 30 more passing attempts, 30 or more passing attempts twice, Michigan and Oregon. Sorry, start that over again. Let's hear that slow it down. Let's let it sink in like a sponge. over the past two seasons. Okay. Will Howard is three and six in games that he has thrown with 30 or more passing attempts.

Okay. This year he had the win against Michigan State, but he lost to Oregon and Michigan. The only teams he beat last year were Troy and UCF. The other losses are mostly against ranked teams. So when, and a lot of them were last year at Kansas State, granted not the same team that he's on now.

You, I don't think they want him throwing the ball more than 30 times. The problem is they'd like to make it like 24. And there's other things involved. So you say to yourself, you know, run hitches, run quick hitters. Well, he threw a pick six against Penn State because you thrown a quick hitter. He threw a pick in the red zone against Michigan, just trying to get the ball out quickly. He's had some issues there as well. I mean, they're going to have to, again, this is, you know, it's very similar to what I said about the Clemson office coordinator.

there is the same thing with Chip Kelly at Ohio State. He's going to have to have a hell of the game game. I think that it's a tall mountain for them to climb. I don't understand. I want you to explain this to me. I don't understand the spread in this game because they're at Ohio State. You don't get it. We'll get back to it.

All right. I just want, I'll tell you this too. They need Caleb Downs to have a big night return on the ball, man. They need Caleb Downs to put them in. So you almost, listening to you, it feels like almost desperation for Ohio State. I listen to this. This is,

like they get a pole a rabbit out of the hat. Do you ever, does this sound familiar at all when, when Tennessee was going into Georgia? And I was like, Georgia's dead. George is done. I've been watching the tape,

man. Georgia doesn't look like the same Georgia that I've seen in the years past. And you're like, pump the brakes, mensch. I should learn my lesson. I have not learned my lesson.

I'm still going Tennessee. I still like Tennessee to go in their way. All right. Well, you also jump the gun on the, I can't. I'm sorry. No,

That's fine. That's fine. I'll get back to you. My brain's on fire. How does Tennessee pull off this upset? I will answer that question since you weren't kind enough to ask it. Tennessee, Tennessee pulls off this upset. Let's put it this way. I'm going to phrase it better. Tennessee's only chance to pull off this upset is if they hit their shots. Like this is a, this is my opinion. Obviously differs from yours. This is a. This is a. desperate situation for hitting the deep ball. Here's what's going to happen. You're right?

I don't want to oversimplify things because it's not that simple. I get it. But I do know this. Tennessee is going to run the football, right? They're going to grind it away. They've got an awesome back in Dylan Samson. And they're going to do it with relative success, but it ain't going to be enough to upset this Ohio State team,

just running the football. They're not going to, we're not going to look up and Samson ran for 145. And on his back, they were able to win this game. It's just not going to happen. I also know this. They're going to, they're going to short game it. They're going to throw all those little quick things that they do. And they're going to, that's going to be a supplement to their run game.

They're going to help grind it out. So it's going to be grind on the ground with Samson, grind to the receivers on the screens, right? Pick up the three, pick up the four, all that shit that they do. But here's the deal. Josh Hypole to me is as good as anyone in the country, anyone. Creating whether it's a handful, whether it's one or two, more than one typically, really good opportunity for his quarterback to hit a deep shot.

Schemes it up. He lulls you. We're balanced. We're Tennessee. We're physical. We're more physical on defense now. We're more physical up front of our offensive line. We got a physical back.

We're going to hit a bunch of screens. we're going to stretch you out. So now you've got to go 52 plus yards, you know, horizontally. We're physical, physical, physical, short game, short game, and then pop. That's what happens. Right. The difference is a few years back, Hendon Hooker was hitting those deep balls at an unbelievably high rate. And that's when they were leaving the nation and scoring.

That's when they were like, by far, the most potent offense in college football. The problem is Nico super talented. unbelievably bright future ahead of him, he's not there yet. And the biggest, not the biggest, but the area that's been shocking to me, we've talked about it over and over again, early in games,

missing wide open receivers down the field. He does that against Ohio State, they can't win. I'm convinced they cannot win. They've got to hit those shots early in the game. So you asked me the question, how does Tennessee pull off this upset? It seems simple,

but when they get their deep shots, Nico's got to hit them. I also want to stress this. Ohio State's corners and secondary in coverage outside of Caleb Downs, overrated. Overrated. Physical, they can press you.

They make some great plays here and there. Times have been really good. But watch it like that Indiana tape was a perfect example. Right? That first drive, when the quarterback who was efficient pass of the football had time to throw. It was easy.

Right. It was easy. So Denzel Burke, Davis and Igbenosson, they're like just watching them in coverage. Now, it'll be interesting, the matchups and all that, but I just think that there's vulnerability there.

And so you combine what Heipel does schematically and what they have on the perimeter, which isn't great, but the fact that the corners for Ohio, Ohio State are vulnerable. I think this is a recipe. That's their best shot of pulling this off. So I also want to emphasize this.

They can't come from Biden beat Ohio State. They just can't, period. If there's one thing in these four games that I am certain of, Ohio State gets 10-point lead, it's over. It's over. It plays into Ohio State's strike. Their defense is too good. Michigan, even the Michigan game, they were damn good against Michigan, the defense.

Damn good. This is the most wrong you've been in a while. Okay. We either can't come back from 10. If they get, let's put it this way. I think Ohio State comes out early. Let's say they hit that big shot. Let's say Ohio State jumps out to a 10 point early second quarter lead.

Do you think they can sustain putting points on the board like that? No, but I don't think. And if he climbs back in? You're telling me that they can run the football effectively enough. They can possess the ball. and I think that they can, they'll have success on defense. I mean, I just don't, if Tennessee's forced a situation where they've got to throw from behind with Nico in that environment, a night game, Ohio State fans are over the Michigan

loss because we know how it goes. Two quarters in, we're leading a college football playoff game. Like everything's, everything's hunky dory. I truly believe that Ohio State will shut them down. I truly believe. I do. Okay. We'll see.

I just, maybe I'm, I mean, listen, you tell me, I think Pollock will tell me the same thing. Don't get cut up on the week-to-week in college stuff. But we are talking about Ohio State defense. It was the last time that they were on the field. They couldn't slow down Khalil Mullings enough to win a football game. I mean, 32 carries, 116 yards and a touchdown. Yeah, because they're often sucked. Who's often sucked?

Ohio states. Yes, and they kept putting them in shitty positions. Think about how shitty the positions they were in. I totally understand. You think that Ohio State's going to be better against the Tennessee defense? Yes. Interesting. Potentially.

I'm just saying they can't. If they get up is what you're saying. If they get up. I want to hear your prediction. Let's hear your prediction. Well, can I give you my player that is going to have to have a huge game and it plays into what I'm saying? And I've been holding onto it. Dante Thorpe.

to the end. Dante Thornton, 26 yards per catch, six out of his 25 catches. Not a lot of catches, but six out of 25 gone for touchdowns, okay? Mm-hmm. Just what, but here's the thing. No, this is why he's so critical in this game. When he doesn't show up, or he's not a key part and does, and my key part, it's never six catches, 103, it's like two catches, 90 yards, you know? He had one catch. He had one catch, he had one catch for 42 yards combined in the two losses they had, Georgia and Arkansas, one for 42. When they don't get some juice from him in games that matter, they're in trouble.

So he's going to play the biggest. He's 6.5, 214 pounds. They need, they need like three big catches from him in this game. He can do it. He's talented, but whether or not he does is kind of up in the air. All right. You want a prediction? Yeah, I do.

You gave me yours. You like 10. It's the only game out of the four that you've given the underdog. And it's the game that I am most certain that you're wrong. Ohio State wins big. Big. Wow. Yes.

Get it. Listen to me. First of all, you want to talk. You got to see Rocky Top Saturday. First of all. And a lot of times the tape doesn't even matter. It's like it's, it's, the the gambling landscape, if you will.

Right. Tennessee is the most bet side of the college football playoff so far. That scares me. I know. That spread scares me too. And Duel is begging the public to take the points with the SEC team against the Big Ten team. It's an Ohio state team that's splintered. They're a mess.

Ryan Day is going to lose his job. People in Columbus want his head on a stake. they can't beat Michigan. Everything's a mess. Tennessee fans have bought all the tickets. It's going to be a Tennessee. They're bringing part of their band. They're going to run out to their music.

I've heard all the shit all week long. I've had enough. I've had enough. All right. Like, get the, get the, that's a Michigan thing. That's not an Ohio state what they are all about and what they can be. Everyone seems to forget the roster they have and the talent they have. Okay?

that's a Michigan problem that Ohio State has. Buckeye's big in this game. You just told me how their corners are overrated. Their offensive lines, a mess. They have good, they have good defensive line and not great pass rush. You know the beauty of this is, big boy? What's that?

You know the beauty? Right after this game. That would suck if it was a Friday night game because I'd have to wait a whole night. And obviously I wouldn't wait. But to publicly shame you. I won't have to wait, but like nine minutes. I'll be the first, for the first time ever in this show, I'll be the first one on the,

you'll be early. Yeah, I'll be early in the stream yard app that we use to put this on the air. I'm going to be here. Like, it won't stop. I won't need to watch the last five minutes of the game because it's going to be over. Ohio State big. Just my prediction.

All right. This is fun. This is fun. We're going to do it again for round two. We'll be back, as I mentioned, Saturday night. I appreciate everyone. I mentioned I truly appreciate. We don't say it enough.

I suck at this hosting thing. I don't tell you to just download and subscribe and tell a friend and all the stuff that you hear on all the podcasts. I probably should do it more, but it's just not who we are. But we appreciate you being here, truly. It's been a lot of fun. It's been a fun ride. I love that we get to finish it up with the 12 team, college football playoff. I love the fact that Saturday night we're here live.

And we'll be yelling at each other again next week, getting in nine days getting ready for these matchups. But I also am excited about this. We're not done here. We got a chance. And I promise full transparency in the show and you're going to get it. I'm not dressed like this. If you're watching on YouTube and this in this guys,

he's still got. I think he's got his bad birdie hat on. But he's definitely wearing a different top. I want to say he was in teal on Tuesday when we take. This was the same one, man. I try to match it up. Yeah. Iris is getting the laundry done.

I know it's not you. So Billy Napier, head coach of the Florida Gators. How, I mean, how amazing is it that he had the time, that he took the time, generous with his time, to come talk to us. And there were two things I wanted to talk to him about. We're going to roll it into the interview right now. But just so you know, he's playing in a bowl game on Friday. And he took the time in Tampa to sit down and talk to us.

I thought it was one of the, he's not going to win coach, but he didn't win coach of the year and understandably. But I thought it was one of the most impressive coaching jobs that any coach did in all of college football. You and I have been on bad teams before. That shit gets sideways fast. Yeah. To keep a team together with the expectations in Gainesville,

all the stuff that goes into that and the SEC, the pressures, to keep a team like this, and you'll hear it throughout his interview. You can see why. they stay level. And I have a great appreciation for the job he did this year. We're going to talk to him right now about that. And also, I mean, how cool is it the week leading into the college football playoff?

We get to talk to a head coach who faced three of these teams, Tennessee, Texas, and Georgia. And he takes the time on game week before a bowl game, trying to go eight and five and build momentum with the transfer portal going on, with recruiting going on. He takes the time to sit down. and break down all three of those teams and what you've got to do to beat them. So please don't miss this.

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Restrictions apply, including any token expiration. See terms at sportsbook. Fanduel.com. Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-help.com. Billy, we appreciate you joining the McShay show here. We're kind of a maiden voyage. We appreciate your time. We know you're down in Tampa right now.

I wanted to run through this for you real quick. You ready? Miami, A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss. Billy, that's seven teams that were all in the college football playoff mix in the last week or two weeks of the season. And really, you knocked out one of them. And at one point you're down to your third string quarterback, a Yale transfer. Like you prepare as a coach for everything, but it certainly wasn't the plan going into the year. So you finish 7-5 of the regular season.

But my question to you is, in some ways, was this the most rewarding season of coaching that you've ever had? Well, I think it teaches you a lot about yourself. You know, I think it teaches you a lot about the people around you. I mean, I think you realize for me, I think it just helps you reset a little bit relative to purpose. I kind of finally got to a place where it's like, look, you know, I love the game. I love everything the game teaches. Sometimes it doesn't go the way you want to. And when it gets really, really challenging and really difficult, I think you've got to go back to purpose.

Why do you coach? You know, my dad was a high school football coach. So I think I leaned on that a little bit this year. And as a leader, you have an obligation to the people you lead, that being our players and our staff. And, you know, you really want to do the best job you can for those people. So that was kind of the focus for me through the tough times would say, don't forget your purpose and you have an obligation to the people you leave.

We're all family members. We all have a personal life, right? I just, like, I've spent time with Urban when he was down in Gainesville after he was coaching and working with ESPN for a year. And it's a bubble down there, you know, and it's the SEC and the pressures, unlike anything you can imagine if you haven't experienced it. And again, from where I said, I can only imagine, but like you've got a wife, you've got three kids.

How do you stay the course? How do you manage all those things when things aren't going well early in this season? Well, again, I, you know, I've learned a long time ago, you know, the game is very conditional. And you need something in life that's not conditional. You know, for me, that's been a faith foundation to some degree.

I think if you get too much of your identity is in the profession, in the game, you know, that's where maybe you start making bad decisions. You know, I think you've got to keep perspective, try to remain objective, take a deep breath, you know, and, you know, we're still coaching football, we're still leading young people

we still have an obligation to try to, you know, make decisions in the best interests of the team. I think we did that. You know, I think we made a lot of changes throughout the year. We continued to adapt. We had a relatively young team, but I do think we learned as we went, and I think, ultimately, we had really good kids. And that helped, you know, nobody pointed fingers, nobody blamed anybody else. I think we took ownership. Everybody took ownership of what they could do.

better to help the team. And that's how we dug our way out of that hole. So I'm very thankful for the players in their attitude and in their tough times. Well, we've said it before on this show, and I think I've heard it echoed. Like what you were able to do as a leader, like forget even the coaching and the SEC and the pressure. Like what you were able to do as a leader and to stay the course was something that, you know, you impressed me for whatever it's worth. And I think a lot of people out they're just like have an unbelievable respect for the way you handled the whole thing this entire year. And here you are, right? Going to a bowl game, the Gasparilla Bowl. Obviously, the SEC team's got knocked down a little bit. Your goals are higher moving forward. But I don't

know, again, from the outside looking in, like in a very different feel. I remember like two years ago, you and I talked at the pro day for Anthony Richardson. And I just remember back to that season, Anthony sat out that game getting ready for the NFL. I think Ventrell Miller and some other guys getting ready for the NFL sat out. This year it feels like your players are opting in. And there's how important against, you know, in the Gasparilla Bowl versus Tulane, how important is this bowl game for your program kind of building for the next step? Yeah, I think somewhere around midseason, you know, that first open date, you know,

then we beat Central Florida. Then we go to Tennessee and we play them to a tough overtime game where Grand Merch got heard. And then here we go. The next week, we really controlled the game against Kentucky. And at that point in time in college football, Kentucky had beaten Ole Miss. Yep, they had played Georgia really close. That same week, Tennessee beats Alabama. Alabama had beaten Georgia earlier in the year. And that's where I think that we kind of flipped the script. Our kids started to realize, like, look, we're not far off here. Like, we can go toe to toe with anybody the rest of the way. that level of belief, DJ Lagway, the win against Kentucky.

Obviously, we had to, I challenged the organization to raise their level. We're playing with a rookie quarterback. Everybody has got to raise their level of play. And I think we did that. We started to play complimentary football. And I think that we have a young team that has carried over. We won three in a row to finish the year. Obviously, big wins against LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State.

So we got some momentum for the first time since we've been here. And I think that we've got a lot of good players coming back. So I think there's some buzz in the building that all the work that we've done in these first couple of years is starting to pay off. So, you know, beliefs are a powerful thing. And I think there's hope for the future. And certainly all of these young players, I think, are, you know, not only talented, but I think they've got character and good leadership as well.

Coach, you talk to us a little bit more about legway? I mean, the tools are obvious, the frame, the arm strength. And then I think about some of the plays he made this year, the play the touchdown pass to tie the Tennessee game and send it to overtime. You know, the 36-yard pass, I think against LSU to put you guys up late. The Georgia touchdown early second quarter. This kid seems to embrace the moment. Can you talk to us a little bit about his progress and where you hope that progress goes next?

well first of all he's an incredible he has a great presence about him you know he's very humble he's very grounded you know his parents did an unbelievable job he's from willis texas small town northeast of houston and i think he's just old school values you know his mom and dad are just salt to the earth people uh and he's always kind of been the big fishing a little fine you know so That's not new to him. And I think he's had the ability to not ever get entitled. You know, it doesn't affect him. I knew him before he exploded as a senior, you know.

All of a sudden he becomes a Gatorade National Player in the year. And he just stayed and didn't affect him. You know, the way he treats people, the way he works. And I have an appreciation for that. Then he's a very talented young player, a ton of hype around him. But what does he do? He shows up. Graham Merch is the starting quarterback.

You know, he kind of gets in his hip pocket. Graham is a consummate professional, the ultimate grinder, teammate leader, blue collar. So he had a chance to be around Graham. And I think that really helped him kind of, hey, this is what it looks like. Yeah. And I think that contributed to his ability to play well this year. Now, what you're describing is real. like this he has an innate ability to kind of raise his level of play you know he could have a

little bit of a sloppy Thursday and then all of a sudden you know Friday ramps it up and the closer we get to kick off it's like okay I'm going to take mine and I'm going to beat yours you know and yeah I think those plays they they not only make a difference from a production standpoint but the energy they bring to the team, you know, and I get to see a bunch of them every day or a week. So, yeah, he's talented, but I think his character has rubbed off. He's a great competitor on game day. Coach, I'm curious.

This time of year is kind of wild in college football. You're preparing for a bowl game. Some schools are preparing for the college football playoff. We saw a report this week, not a report. I mean, it's just what happened. And Beau Probula, the backup quarterback for Penn State is now in the transfer portal, won't be playing, wants to be at Penn State for the rest of the season. But Drew Aller is coming back. James Franklin obviously has been vocal like any coach would be about, you know, the system and the timing of things.

So just taking a step away. If I were to just say, all right, Billy, you're college football, you're the commissioner. And you were to make one change or a couple of changes when it comes to specifically like the postseason, post-season. regular season, off season schedule. What can we change to make this work? A guy like Beau Perbule doesn't have to decide on whether to finish out the season where he's been an integral part in why Penn State is going to get to the playoff or go and take advantage of an opportunity that is awaiting him. Well, we got a couple of things right, in my opinion. I think moving up the signing day was a good decision. You know, we get the season over.

We sign the high school group of players. We have a dead period where we can meet with our current players. I do think if you are in a conference championship game, there is some conflict there. But for the most part, the Hayes in the Barn at that point, from my school recruitment standpoint. And then, okay, here comes the postseason and the portal, right? That's where you'd have a conflict.

Now, we're in what we call a quiet period where they can only come to your campus. Last year at this point, you could go on the road, you're treating, right? And sign a day was literally tomorrow. Okay. So, you know, we not only would be trying to retain players, but we also would have been on the road recruiting. And the high school players would not have been done yet. So we did get two things right. I think that we have to consider making December a dead period, in my opinion, because then the players can't take the fish of visits.

That's going to push everything back to January. now you take official visits, you know, once you kind of get into January. So most of the postseason is done once you get into January. Now, there's going to be a handful of teams that are still in the playoff that playing a New Year's bowl. But, you know, you've got to compartmentalize your time. You know, and that's what I think. I mean, I'll say hopefully, January needs to turn into portal official visit season, you know. and obviously extend the clock a little bit to get them into school.

You know, I do think the players have some rights. They won't have as many rights going forward in revenue sharing because we're going to be very much a semi-professional contractual agreements. There'll be a little bit more of a binding document there in some regard. But look, to me, what I tell our staff is, I don't want to hear anybody complaining or making excuses. I think, you know, what we got to do is we got to be better at focusing on the task at hand. You know, you got to have the ability to change years, not only within the day.

You know, you got to go from game planning to portal recruitment, to player retention, to practice, to, you know, whatever the next challenge here. So look, it's how you separate yourself. We don't make the rules. We compete within the current rules. and then our job is just to try to build the best team as possible. So for me, it's kind of the ultimate challenge. You know, can we have a different level of focus and kind of focus on the task at hand?

And be, you know, I think that's the way we can separate ourselves to some degree. It's all fascinating stuff. I mean, how quickly all of this is changing, you know, kind of right in front of our eyes. You mind humoring us for a couple minutes? I know the last thing you want to do is talk about past opponents from this season.

Yeah, sure. With a bowl game coming up in the, you know, very soon. But you did face Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas. And they're all in the college football playoff. And it's obviously a big focus. I'm curious. I just want to kind of go through quickly. What if you were to, you know, if Ryan Dave was to call you, they're playing Tennessee,

what kind of priority list? What would be at the top of the priority list against Tennessee? What do you have to do to have a chance to beat a really good Tennessee team? Well, first of all, I think, you know, Tennessee judges got his, you know, he's made his name playing offense and creating explosive plays and scoring points. But don't overlook that Tennessee's really good on defense. I think they've done a good job improving each year since he's been there. And the personnel's good. You know, the interior defensive line, the edge players, I think there are very multiple, the front variables, the pressures.

and I think they're pretty sticky in coverage. So they play good defense, so you can't overlook that. You know, I think I've been impressed with how they've improved a little bit each year there. They're also very good in the kicking game. You know, I think they've got a really good identity in all six phases of kicking game. I think the coordinator does a good job. And then offensively, what we've learned is that you've got to get the call in, You've got to get your cleats in the ground and get a line correctly and have good eyewis and play the plates.

You know, so, you know, typically how you are able to handle the tempo and then keep the ball in front of you, make them go the distance. You know, I think they've got a good concept. We beat them two years ago and then I obviously played them to a tight game this year. I've got getting injured in the game. but I respect, I do think they're physical, although they play with pace on offense. I think there's a physicality to their team, and I think the personnel is pretty good. So, you know, I think you better be ready for that defense, and I think in the kicking game, they can cause problems for you.

We know Josh is always going to have these ways to create yards and points. But, you know, it's a blueprint that's worked for them, and I think that, you know, I've I expect it. Coach, one of the things that jumped out to me in that game and really against Georgia and Texas as well was how many times you guys ran the ball against them. And I know some of that's injuries at quarterback and that kind of dictates maybe what you're doing. But I mean, it was, I think it was 40 runs against Tennessee, 38 against Georgia, 41 against

Texas. These are good run defenses. And you guys had some success. Can you talk about maybe that run-heavy approach or that staying committed to the run and how important that is? Yeah, well, all three of those teams, I think, presented different dynamics. You know, we're going to Tennessee. We're trying to stay on schedule.

We're trying to negate the rushers they have. We're trying to shrink the game to some degree and limit their opportunities. And I do think that for us to have success, given the makeup of our team in that game, we needed to do that. And, you know, I do think against Texas, we're playing with our third quarterback, you know. So, you know, I think at some point there, it was kind of like, okay, what can we do well? And I felt like that ultimately, you know, we have the ability to run the ball. We proved that. So but Georgia, I think we're playing with a rookie quarterback.

And we've, you know, we felt like, hey, look, the backs on our team are some of the better players. Georgia plays coverage. You know, they kind of, they're defending the past. You know, most plays, they're an advantage in that regard. So you got to prove you can run it for them to put an extra guy in the box or start pressure and then that's what creates opportunities for the throw game. And again, you know, in our league, you know, second and long and third long are tough days, man.

So, you know, the rush is real. You know, it's the National Football League to some degree. So, thing on schedule is a big deal, you know, and I'd think, you know, if you can prove, you can run it, it makes the throw game much simpler, much easier. That's interesting on Georgia with their defense. And I'd ask you about the other side of the ball. We still don't know where they are with Carson Beck. But just one last one against Texas, and you just touched on it too.

You're down to your third string quarterback. But kind of game planning for that and knowing what you're. know against Texas. What do you have to do against Texas to be successful? Well, first of all, you got to tackle well in space. I think the skill, the running back, the receiver group, you know, is very unique. I think they're quick, they're elusive, elite speed. You know, I think a lot of the completions are short to intermediate. There's a bunch of run-after catch. So your ability to, you know, get the guy on the ground, you know, when you get those, you know, they throw it underneath a lot.

They throw it to the perimeter a lot. So your ability to get those guys on the ground, we did not do that well, you know. I'd also think that you got to make the quarterback uncomfortable. You know, we weren't able to do that in our game, but I think you got to push the middle of that pocket. You got to hit him. You got to tip balls. You've got to affect the guy in general. So sticky coverage, affect the quarterback, get him off the spot, get him out of rhythm,

and then when they do throw it to the perimeter and underneath, you've got to rally in pursuit and get those guys on the ground. Now, defensively, that front seven is stout. So, you know, I think ultimately you've got to try to stay out

a second, third long, and, you know, I think it's a race to 30 in our league. That's what I always say, right? 30 points. It's like playing in the National Football League. Yeah. So you got to take care of the ball and you can't give them anything,

any freebies, make them go to the long field. And when you do get it into the red zone, you got to cast it in and get touchdowns, and you've got to force them to kick field goals. It doesn't feel right, taking up your time at your bowl game in Tampa, getting ready for the Gasparilla Bowl versus Tulane to finish talking about Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas. So let's take this opportunity.

You always get a little extra time going into a bowl game. There's always, it seems like a player or too, whether it's a youngster or a veteran player that's just ready to emerge. There are a couple guys you want to highlight, just whether it be their effort, their leadership, the promise they're showing, guys that people nationally might want to just keep an eye on when they're watching this game on Friday. Well, we're going to have, you know, there's going to be some opportunities for some players to play in this game.

you know, that typically their role will be a little bit bigger. I think up front, we're going to move Cam James to Jack and rotate him a little bit over there. I think Cam James is 6-6-270-pound player that's played F. He's one of our edge players. L.J. McCray will get more snaps here. He was one of the better defensive linemen in the country last year, another 6-6-2-60 true freshman.

Those two guys will have a little bit bigger role in the game. I'm excited to watch them. You're going to see Mackay Burrow, Deontre Robinson, Tavaris Brown. All three are freshman defense alignment that I think are going to play a little bit more in this game. And they all have talent. I think they're all big-time players. Offentially, you know, Bryce Love it and Ken Williams. or two young officers linemen that have a little bit bigger role in the game on the right side.

So I'm excited to see them compete in just in general, another game, another opportunity for the young quarterback lagway. So I'm kind of excited to watch some of these young guys play in the game. Some of these guys are going to have more of a role than they've had in the past. I think it presents a good opportunity to kind of build some momentum and learn from competing in the game. Cool. Well, we're excited too. We wish you the best of luck. And once again, like anyone who's been around this game long enough to see how things started and how things could have gone and how many, you know, frequently you can go the other way and get sideways fast and to see what you did this year. Just truly appreciation for that. For you and for your staff, for your family hanging. And it's like everyone involved. Just really appreciate what you did this year. And wish you the best of luck and look forward to talking to you soon, Billy.

Okay, Todd. Steve, thank you guys so much, man. Appreciate the opportunity. You got it. Good luck, coach. Good luck, coach. All right, yeah. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-Help.com. Call 1-888-78-9-7777 or visit ccpg.org. slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline m a.org or call 1-800-327-50 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts.

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