The McShay Show - College Football Playoff Rankings Takeaways: Big Ten Sleepers, ACC Snubs, Big 12 Respect, and SEC Musical Chairs

Episode Date: November 5, 2025

Welcome to The McShay Show! The guys are jumping on for a bonus episode to react to the first College Football Playoff rankings reveal. Todd and Steve open with their FanDuel picks of the week, then discuss their biggest rankings takeaways, surprises, lessons, and more. 0:00 Welcome to The McShay Show! 0:33 CFP Rankings Reaction2:45 Week 11 Preview + Picks!7:08 Biggest takeaways from the CFP rankings reveal8:10 The CFP committee got it right23:30 The potential scheduling issue with the current CFP rankings Subscribe to The McShay Report for access to all of Todd’s mock drafts, big boards, scouting reports, and more throughout the college football season. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Todd McShayGuests: Steve MuenchProducers: Tucker Tashjian, Conor Nevins, and Daniel ComerSocial: Alysha Tsuji Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The first college football playoff rankings are revealed. We've got thoughts. And by the way, just 169 days, Munch, until the NFL draft. So I got to ask you, Munch, you good? I'm awesome, man. Let's go. Roll that beat, Tucker. Impromptu show today for the folks.

I told you'd want to do this. I mean, I've said it all along. I'm going to let you peek behind the curtain. Mench texts me the other day. is like, are we going to do a college football playoff rankings reveal show? I was like, no, didn't do that well last year. You know, a hundred other shows are doing it. Then the rankings come out last night and we start texting as a group.

I'm like, what the hell are we doing? Let's jump on in the morning. We normally tape late Wednesday nights for the Thursday morning show. We're like, screw it. Let's jump on in the morning. So here we are. This is the McShay show presented by Fanduel, and college football Saturdays are heating up.

Whether you're in for the early kick or the late night action, Fanduel lets you bet your way with the same game parlays, live betting, game props, and more. And Missouri, get excited because Fandual is coming your way on December 1st. Download the app or head to Fandul.com slash McShay and make every Saturday count. Must be 21 and older in President Select States or 18 and older in President D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 gambler or visit R.G. dot com call one 888 789 777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in connecticut fresh and ready to go bench has been grinding tape for our rough draft show that we're taping later today for tomorrow

morning and that will be out and available to you on youtube Spotify and wherever you get your podcasts Apple as well um and and just a reminder people please subscribe it's amazing the amount of people that we have that are viewing the show and it keeps growing. But the percentage of people who view it but don't subscribe. So let's make sure, all I get to do is click a button. And it's not like we're asking for your email or your social security or, or any first pet's name. Yep.

Yeah. Yeah. Child's day to birth, nothing. We don't want any passwords, nothing. So, but we would appreciate it. So just click that button if you don't mind. All right. Obviously, we're here to react to the rankings.

I'm thrilled about them, and we'll get to it in a second. But every single week we do our fan dual pick of a week. I took a little dip late-knock. Mr. October took a little dip two weeks ago, right back on track. There's November 1st. Maybe I'm Mr. October to November. I don't know. But like on an absolute tear, won the entire personal pool that I'm in.

Fan dual accounts looking beautiful. My poor daughter, Lear. She needs a new pair of shoes, as Matt Davis used to say, Richmond. And I hit the four-leg – hit the second four-leg parlay of the season last week. Two in five weeks. Here we go. Let's go. With all that, I'm getting Tommy John's surgery soon, shoulder from patting myself on the back.

But I want to get to our fan-dwell picks the week before we get into the college football playoff rankings. There's two games that we've kind of highlighted that mentioned and I are hot on. Steve, why don't you start it out? What's your pick of the week? Oregon is a six-and-a-half point favor at Iowa. give me Iowa with the points. Again, I'm a little concerned about the Oregon offense and that Iowa team is the most underrated team in the country, in my opinion.

I don't know how they're not in the AP top 25. They've been rolling over the last month since the Indiana loss. They've been rolling. I just think they got some, you know, the most dangerous return man in the country. And again, Oregon's been good at covering kicks. But give me Iowa with the points. Have you looked at the weather report in that game, too? No, why?

Tell me it's bad weather. That's even better. Iowa, November weather it looks like. Yes. Yes. And I know Oregon's got a lot of rain. That matters. Oh, it matters.

Making that trip traveling to that weather. Something's brewing there. Something is absolutely brewing. I'm going to go a little off the radar. I mean, it's not that far off. But haven't featured Virginia, I don't think, in any picks this year. No. And I'm going to go against Virginia.

This is. This is a nosebleed game. My high school baseball coach, Frank DeFalise, who always talked with four fingers and the one, four, one, always. Anytime we see, like, in the state rankings in baseball, and we actually had a really good, we won the state championship my sophomore year,

and we were kind of in the hunt every year. If the rankings would come out and we got a little high, he would be screaming about nosebleeds all week in practice, right? He was batting practice and going to fielding drills. You guys got nosebleeds, Nosebleeds, you read the rankings. This feels like a nosebleed game for me. Virginia now, the first rankings come out.

You know, they're all huddled around in the apartments there in Charlottesville, Virginia. I would be. No question. Human nature, man. Grab some like Papa Johns or Dominoes or whatever it is, load up, and let's all meet up at one of the captain's houses, right? They're ranked 14th. They're the highest ranked team in the ACC.

Very few outside of people. Charlottesville probably expected that this was a scenario that could play out when we got the first rankings revealed that they would be with with Miami and Clemson and the hype coming into this year for those two programs especially and Florida State winning in first week against Alabama this was a three team and then Georgia Tech going on this run undefeated late through October that their first rankings reveal would have would have Virginia the highest ranked ACC team sitting there, and I think it's 14, right? And kind of right there,

sneaking around the chicken coop. Yep. Now they're playing Wake Forest. Yeah, they're playing Wake Forest this week. Wake Forest just got the doors blown off of them. DeMond Claiborne has been up and down, up and down, the NFL draft prospect at running back. It's a six and a half point spread.

I think Virginia grinds out wins. They play up. They play down to the competition. I think Wake Forest is a live dog this week, Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. So keep an eye on that one. And we'll get you at McShay 13. Steve is at you good, Munch.

I'll release some other picks in the four-leg parlay. We're going to try to make it back to back for the first time this season. I'm feeling good. Let's go. All right, let's get into this thing. Let's go through the rankings first before we get to the bracket. My biggest takeaway, and this is all about takeaways,

What did you learn from the first rankings reveal? That's the whole thing for me. Because it really is, you've got to study it. Because as Dan and I were texting last night, and he's not wrong, it's like this reveal, then the one before the conference championship games, and then obviously the final one, where we have the Sunday breakout show, and we'll be live covering that where we basically find out what the final rankings are, who's in, who's out. So much fun.

And what are the matchups? those are the three everything in between like yeah it's good for tv and and espn whether you can get them on youtube tv by then or not we'll find out i've got so many thoughts on that i've so much behind the scenes information but i've done enough jabbing in the past people want it the people love it at james franklin paul thinebaum and and the melkeper situation i think i'm just going to i'm come in peace um my biggest takeaway Stephen, the entire first college football playoff rankings reveal. I love what the committee has done.

And what happened if people, I absolutely love it. And listen, it's not because all 12, we do the TMS, the McShay Show top 12, TMS top 12 every Saturday night on our live ranking show. And all 12 teams that we put in on Saturday night, early Sunday morning, were the 12 teams ranked at the top in the top 12 spots in this college football playoff rankings, right? Right. Yeah, you think, well, yeah, of course you love it, McShay. The TMS top 12 matched up.

The first six teams were the exact order. Seven through 12 wasn't the exact order, but it was those other six teams. So, of course, you like it. That's not why. Here's the reason why. And on this show, if you're a fan of this show and you're a friend of the first, family, as we like to say. You're watching this show in January after the college football playoff championship,

the CFP. And you're watching this show, January, February, March, April, May, all NFL draft. It's what we specialize in, right? And so I think what may have gotten lost if you're watching this show and maybe not at a lot of other shows, which I don't pretend that that's the case with a lot of folks out there. but there was some big decisions and some tweaks made to the college football playoff committee and I think it was in March they came out and we've got an eye on all this stuff but we're focusing heavily yeah we got the combine we've got we've got all-star

games we've got pro days we've got all of our draft shows but I've got an eye on hey there there's noise that they're going to put more emphasis on the strength of record the record strength and they're to do it because our two bitches last year, Steve, our two major complaints were these. One, get rid of the brackets and how they were constituted. The seating here ago.

The seating, right? The seating was a mess. It's got to be the top four teams. It can't be some, you know, seventh or sixth, seventh, eighth ranked Big 12 or ACC in the top four seats. It's got to be the top four teams in the country. They fixed that.

Our second major complaint was, man, it feels an awful lot like they're just like looking at the standings and going off of wins and losses. There's not enough emphasis on who do they have to play. And that was part of our complaint with like the South Carolina's

and the Ole Misses when comparing them to other programs at the SMUs, right? Yep. And even like Indiana deserved to be in at the end of the day, but as the process was going, we were saying, yeah, they're undefeated, but who have they played?

And so they came out and said that more of an emphasis was going to be put on the record strength. And in doing that, not only are they emphasizing who are the best 12 teams. At the end of the day, if you're a true college football fan, forget about where you went to school, what program you pull for, you want the best 12 teams in there.

So you've got to have the top, you've got to really emphasize, like who these teams are playing. Because South Carolina with two losses or three losses may be a lot better than an SMU program or an Indiana program should be ranked higher than those programs that have no loss, one loss, whatever it is. So that was kind of our major complaint outside of the seating.

And then I hear that that's going to be an emphasis this year and I'm like, well, I've heard a lot of emphasis points in the spring before that didn't play out. Here it played out. The other thing this does is it doesn't crucify a program for playing a really good non-conference game or a tougher non-conference schedule. So when you're Texas and you lose to Ohio State, the number one team in the country, and it's the first week in the season, and it's the first time starter at quarterback for a full year, and all those things, we're keeping perspective. That's all I can ask for, right?

I want to give you a couple of examples of how that played out. Georgia Tech. I feel like last year, if the emphasis hasn't, hadn't shifted, and we were back to last year's committee and the emphasis that they had on wins and losses that we thought it was overweighted, Georgia Tech probably would have been in the top 12. They got one loss. They're eight and one. Yeah, it was recent.

It just occurred. But this is a team that was undefeated until this week, and they have one loss. They might have been in. then the rankings come out and I see Georgia Techs all the way down at 17. And I'm like, hmm, maybe they are putting an emphasis. I see Texas in Oklahoma at 11 and 12 with two losses. But look at where those two losses came. Look at the loss for Texas to start the season.

Look at Oklahoma's losses. So there's an emphasis put on it that's important that I'm sitting here congratulating the committee. and each year you try to get a little bit better. Every day you try to be 1% better, right? And I feel like this committee's emphasis is better than a year ago. We fixed the seating, and now there's the record strength that's important. Look at Iowa, for example. The AP poll, they're still not in the AP top 25.

You just mentioned you think Oregon's on upset alert. Going to Kinnick this week. We both recognize the flaws in Iowa, but we both have an appreciation for what Iowa doing. And also what that team is now versus maybe what it was in the beginning of the season. If we're trying, if the whole goal is to get the best 12 in, teams evolved, teams get better, Iowa's gotten better, Texas has gotten better, and teams regress. Miami is regressed. And it's, it happens year in and year out, it feels like. They're great

in August, September, October, and they fall apart in November and December. So looking at Iowa 20 here, and yes, they're still all the way down at 20, but now it's created a path where Iowa is in the mix. They've got a schedule ahead of them where they could get in, and we'll break things down by conference soon. But that was my biggest takeaway, Steve. And I throw to you now saying, agree or disagree on that, or if you had another takeaway before we shift over to the conference championship.

And I should mention, we talked about it. If you're watching on YouTube, you'll be able to see the graphic but the TMS top six Saturday night was Ohio State 1, Indiana 2, Texas A&M 3, Alabama 4, Georgia 5, Ole Miss 6. Committee was lockstep with us. 100%. 7 through 12, we had the same teams in there. We had Oregon, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, BYU, and Texas. In that order, 7 through 12.

The committee had, and I'm fine with it. And I think they have more love for the Big 12. And you know what? When I take a step back and look, maybe they should. We'll talk about that in a second. Okay. They had BYU at 7, Texas Tech at 8, Oregon 9, Notre Dame 10, Texas 11, Oklahoma, 12. Okay.

So that's how it played out. So now I throw to you, Steve, with the points of emphasis that I discussed, take it wherever you want to go. I cannot believe that this old grump is going to say what I'm about to say. But I agree with you. I mean, there is some real progress in what they're doing here. And we'll talk about the seating in a minute. But I want to talk about let's get right into that Big 12 because that was food for thought for me. Traditionally, I believe that the ACC is a better conference than the Big 12.

And when you start getting into this and you see that BYU is at 7, which is a little high for me, but they haven't lost yet. I think they'll come down. That BYU, Texas Tech, 7-8 is going to get figured out this week, right? So that's going to get figured out really quickly. They also have Utah at 13. They have three big 12 teams before an ACC team even shows up. And so in my mind, that's setting off alarm bells.

Immediately my radar is up. Really? Really? And then I started looking at it. And, man, that Utah team is frustrating, but they just came off our monster win against Cincinnati. And I stand by that that's the best offensive line in the country. That was my pick to win the Big 12 to begin this season. BYU, we'll get back to them right now, is exceeded expectations.

I think they're the one team that's maybe a little bit of a paper tiger, but deserves to be there right now. We'll see what happens against Texas Tech. That Texas Tech defense is supremely talented. They're pretty good on offense. I think they deserve to be where they are. Now, again, if you're asking me who I think is better Oregon or BYU, I'm putting Oregon ahead of BYU.

I'm putting Notre Dame ahead of those teams. I think if I put Texas head of those teams head to head. But if you're looking at strictly the Big 12 versus the ACC, they got a right, man. A statement was made. A statement was made. And not in a, and I think a pretty, pretty courageous one. Maybe that's not the right word.

Courageous is too strong. But that's not easy for them to do to come out and say, look, we really believe in the Big 12 this year. The Big 12 has been kind of the power for it's been the little brother. Tell me if I'm wrong. wrong. And maybe some of this is Arizona State last year. Maybe some of this is Arizona State going in and mixing it up and saying, hey, the Big 12s are real. Maybe it's a little bit of that. I don't know. But you look at those teams, VYU, Texas Tech and Utah, they're tough outs. I'm not saying that they're

contenders, but they are tough outs. I think they got it right. And to get into, I don't know if you want to get into this right now, but the bracket, the seating. McShea, look at those potential matchups in the second round. Yeah, let's pull it up, Tucker. Oh, my God. God. Look at those potential matchups, man. There are a lot of people who are listening, driving in their car, you know, running errands or doing some housework. So I do want to lay it out for you in case you haven't taken a look at it or it's just not in front of you. Here are the seatings.

One is Ohio State. Two is Indiana. Three, Texas A&M, four Alabama. They all would get buys in this scenario, right? So they're sitting around waiting for the winners of these matchups. The matchup to play Alabama would be Georgia Memphis. Oh, Lord. Georgia, Bama in the quarter finals?

Right out immediately. The second round, keep going. Okay. Now, the second grouping, Oregon, Texas Tech, I don't even know who I like in that game. I like Oregon, but it's a good game. I do too slightly, but that's an eight versus nine. Texas Tech eight, Oregon versus nine.

The winner has to go play Ohio. state. Still like the number one team in the country team has been like just unflappable. Very few flaws. You still look at that and say for their first game in the quarter finals, they get to play either Oregon or Texas Tech. It ain't going to be an easy out. Then you got Virginia and Ole Miss with the right to go play Texas A&M. You'd think that that would be old miss. And all of a sudden now we're looking at Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State versus Oregon or Texas Tech. And then A&M versus. versus Ole Miss.

My lord. And then we get to the, the final bracket, which is kind of independence, the old independence versus the Big Ten. Indiana sitting there at the two seed

waiting to see the winner of BYU, Notre Dame. So you could have a rematch, right? A rematch of last year's, Indiana, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Ole Miss, Ohio State versus Oregon or Texas Tech. Another rematch.

Yeah, yeah, you're right. Yep. I mean, that's second round. We don't have that SM, what was it, the SMU, Penn State was in the second round, I think, last year. There were a couple duds I felt like in the second round last year. That's gone. That second round of that playoff is insane. And in part because of this, because the seating is different.

That's 100% why. That's exactly why. It's two changes from a year ago. Seating is different and the record strength is emphasized. Right. And that is setting us up for a beautiful end of December, January running college football. Great job by the committee and getting that fixed right away. Great job by making that adjustment after year one of the expanded playoff model.

Outstanding. And look at what we've got now. I mean, the top two seats are the top, two of the top seats are from the Big Ten. Two of the top seats are from the SEC, as it should be. You want to give automatic bids to power four teams? I get that. But there is a difference between the SEC and the Big Ten and the ACC in the Big 12th. There just is.

There's a drop off. So let's make sure that that's acknowledged and make sure that that's accounted for by getting the top two from each of those conferences as the guys with buys, as it seems with buys. All right. I've been blamed my entire life for being an eternal optimist. And it has absolutely allowed me to do some wonderful things in life. And it has absolutely caused me some problems. right and we're not here for the the mickshay history or psychology however you are not one of those typically that's why we balance what you mean that's why we balance one another out pretty well

and and and but in in learning that you know i need to keep my optimism in check i i run through these mental exercises of like not everyone's viewing it through this lens todd no and i'm sure if you're going to consume other content, whether it's, you know, on the networks or other shows, there's a lot of people complaining and conspiracy theorists and all that. And not everyone is like, hey, great job.

You know, pack it up. We don't have much of a show to do today. The reason I wanted to start with the optimism is I feel like more so than ever, going back to the BCS and all the bullshit we've been through as college football fans and just one national championship game. And then, you know, four teams getting in. And then we bump it to 12. but we get these horrible seeds and the strength of record is not being included enough.

We're at the best place we've been in a long time. Is it perfect? No. But when I say we're in the best place we've been in forever, since we went back from the archaic, just like whatever the rankings are at the end of the year, we pick a, you know, the polls decide who the national champion is. In some years, we have two teams that are co-champions. It's a mess.

This is the best position I feel like college football has been in. ever deciding a national champion. But I say that and recognizing it's a beautiful thing, but we're potentially headed for disaster this ball. We are. And I want to get into it.

Because of the schedules, yep. Because of the schedules. Because the beautiful thing in college football is a lot of these schedules are backloaded, whether it's rivalry games, conference games, so much of it is backloaded. And it's a form of truth serum the next like five weeks, truly. And we saw last year like Clemsons and the, what, Clemsons in the college football playoff?

You know, there's going to be a couple of those. So I want to go through this. Here's how I view it and follow me and I'll try to do it succinctly. Follow along with me just for a minute. Here's my brain how it works. I want to do this by conferences because it's really important how it plays out. not only the conference games coming up, but also the conference champions, and then how many other teams from each conference will get in depending on scenarios, okay?

I'm glad you're doing this. This does get confusing. You have to kind of take a second and lock in here. Right. So everyone take a deep breath at home as you're listening or watching and just think through this with me. Okay, with me, not I'm telling you, let's talk through this, okay? First of all, let's go through who are the automatics, right? SEC gets one, Big 10 gets one, big 12 gets one,

ACC gets one, group of five gets one. That's five. There's 12 teams, so there are seven at-larges, okay? Right. The biggest question to me is what comprises that we know the conference champions and the highest-ranked G5, right now it's Memphis, is going to get a spot. So now we've got seven at-larges, and that's where all the debate's going to be.

Right? Is the conference champion loser? Are they still rewarding for being in the conference championship and playing in it? Is it a team that is sitting at 14, 15, 16, 19? Shoot, could it be a team like Iowa at 20 or Michigan 21 that finds a way to sneak into this thing? So I want to go by conferences. As I see it right now, it is practically a given that the SEC will wind up with three of those seven remaining the at-large spots, right?

Three of them. Yeah. Giving the SEC four. It is also practically a given that the Big Ten will receive two of those at-larges. Okay. It's not, like, I feel like four for the SEC, three of which will be at-large, is kind of a lock at this point. I think the worst case for the Big Ten, it would be one additional. two. But I truly believe if Oregon gets knocked off by Iowa, I think there will be a second, a third Big Ten team in. So let's for the sake of this right now, say it's three for the SEC of those seven at large and two for the Big Ten. That leaves us with two remaining, okay? Do we have a crash course to the SEC getting five, even though there's opportunity with

like Texas playing Georgia and Texas playing Texas A&S? and several other games, okay? Is it a crash course towards five or does the SEC cannibalize itself? Then you have to ask the question. If we're saying at least three for the for the SEC of these at large seven, and at least two for the at large Big Ten, now we've got two remaining. Notre Dame becomes this wild card, man.

I don't think. Really? I just listen to me because now there are two remaining. I'm listening. I'm hearing you. Now there are two spots remaining. One we're assuming right now, Notre Dame is sitting there with the 10th spot and a record that looks beatable throughout. But I'm looking at Notre Dame and I'm saying, man, they're playing a lot better. Steve and I both believe they're one of the top 10 teams in the country. Probably would have had them ranked a spot or two ahead of where the committee did.

but they are safely in there with Navy at Pitt, Syracuse, at Stanford. They're going to be double-digit favorites in three of those and probably close to double-digit at pit. But you and I are saying that pit game is scary, man. Yeah, keep an eye on it. Right? Keep an eye on it. But Notre Dame, it's literally the Notre Dame spot. Do they want it?

can they go earn it or does that free up for another conference to get another team in truly like that's what on november on november 5th you feel confident that one of those at large is is going to notre dame correct i mean that's what i feel that okay good fan dual i was misunderstanding fan will tell us that and and everyone who makes the the lines like that's that's the heavy favorite and all this is the notre dames in i'm just saying it's too clean right now man And college football, I've said, I've noticed that when I started going on the road, I started going on the road covering games back when I was like 20 something years old around 2001. And I'm traveling and all of a sudden I do 12, 10, 10, 11, 12 weeks. Everything's normal.

You get your assignment on Sunday. You leave on Thursday. You come back on Saturday night or Sunday morning. You're in this routine, right? And then all of a sudden, your significant other or your mom's calling and she wants to know about Thanksgiving. And it's like, oh, travel's different that week. I got to go fly to see my mom and my family out in Ohio. So I'm going from Boston to Ohio.

I get in there on a Tuesday. I'm there on Wednesday. We have Thanksgiving. Now I'm flying out Friday morning from Ohio to the game. Things are just messed up. And I spent a couple days with the family and your brains. And programs try to insulate players. but I'm telling you the Thanksgiving thing, wild,

if you go back in the history of college football, that wild results, it's like something about breaking the routine just a little bit throws things off. Not for everyone, but you're always going to, and then you have the rivalry games, and then you have conference championship games.

You're looking at three opportunities from like in late November to the first weekend in December, things get messed up. And it's a beautiful thing for college football. but what we're looking at now is going to change. So I want to throw out that Notre Dame thing because they truly hold one of the seven spots. And if they dump it by their own doing, that opens up another spot for all these other programs. So where are those other programs?

And regardless, it's at least one additional spot that the ACC, the committee has spoken. The ACC ain't getting it. They're just not getting a second one. No. They don't even have one in the top 12. right now, or 13, for that matter. They purposely put, as you said, Utah, ahead of all those ACC teams. They've got four of five, this run of four or five ACC teams from 14 to 18.

That's Virginia at 14, Louisville at 15, then it's Vandy mixed in at 16, but then Georgia Tech at 17 and Miami at 18. Talk about a punishment. Miami, it's like, no, we don't believe. So four or five teams from 14 to 18, Steve. but none of them in the top 12. So yeah, you're going to get one in, but don't have any delusions of grandeur.

I'm with you. That seems vindictive against Miami. I mean, I'm not high on Miami right now. I don't think anyone is, but that seems extra harsh. That's a little bit of a recency loss to a pretty good SMU team on the road. Interesting that they're that low.

The other thing I'll say is that having that group, that cluster screams to me that the committee's like, hey, ACC, could you figure it out? Like, we know there's a group of you, right here. Could you just figure it out? Because yeah, you guys go figure it out. Yeah, we don't really love Virginia here. But like at the same time, no one will

figure it out. Someone step up. And I did a little bit of a rabbit hole last night because they have all these like predictions and analysis and all that. Ultimately, it's going to be one team from the ACC. And there's really three teams that are vying for that one spot. It's Virginia, Georgia

Tech, and Louisville. There's like a 28% chance or something like that that Pitt or Miami could wind up in. Right. Okay. And obviously a Pitt win over Notre Dame and that would be the Notre Dame law. So maybe it opens up in another spot. So they're, I'm not saying it's impossible for Pitt and Miami, but when you do like the percentages, it's low percentage. All right. So three ACC programs, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Louisville, vying for one spot. It's going to be the conference championship game. Okay. So that so so so, so, so,

But that's included in those first five, the automatic bids, right? Right. So you still have that large. You still have two at large right now. So that's the ACC. Given what we know now and where it is, the ACC's like terrible chances of getting a second team in and they've deserved that. What the committee also told us is, and we'll get to the SEC in the Big Ten a minute, the committee has told us they have a higher respect for the Big 12 than I think the media and public nationally. are giving the Big 12.

Now, they also have the comfort of, yeah, we'll put two teams in the top 10. We'll put BYU, which is undefeated at number seven, and we'll put Texas Tech in there at number eight with a one loss. But one of these guys are going to get knocked out on Saturday. So by the time we rewrack this thing next week, the Big 12 will be down to one. But what's interesting is, I don't think the Big 12 is out of contention, especially of Notre Dame were to lose. but I don't think the Big 12 is totally out of contention

because of where Utah is lurking right now. Yeah, by setting them that high, they did this with SMU last year too, by the way, where they had SMU high and because SMU at the end at the end, they were still in a position to get in the playoff because of those initial rankings. I'm with you on this. I hear you.

I want you to hear this too. Utah has this really wild, like they're a wild card and they have this, they were just handed. I hope people, one of my biggest takeaways, Utah was just handed a Trump card. They were just handed a wild card and a game of cards. They were just handed, you can use this with any suit, with any number. By putting them at 13, they're not getting in the conference championship game. Right.

What's difficult is what Utah's rooting for, because they lost the two teams ahead of them. Right. And so they don't have the tie breaker to get into the conference championship game. I see what you're going. I'm with you. If BYU beats Texas Tech or Texas Tech beats BYU, they're still going to wind up, unless there's an absolute disaster. They're still going to wind up playing in the conference championship game. Now you say, well, the committee has shown the loser of that conference championship game,

they're not going to kick them out and put Utah in over them. and I say, what happens if team A beats team B twice? What happens if BYU beats Texas Tech twice? And Texas Tech now has three losses. What happens if, I mean, listen, Utah, that was a tight game. The BYU, Utah game is tight. What if BYU loses at Texas Tech loses at Cincinnati and then loses, BYU would still be in the conference championship, but they're a lot of.

Utah is a huge. BYU fan, which is uncomfortable for that fan. Yes. Obvious reasons. They're Bearcats fans. They lost by 24 to Texas Tech. They lost by three, I think it was, to BYU. Yeah. Yes. You understand me, right?

But even there's a, I think there's even a route, though. If BYU loses the conference championship game with three losses, does Utah get in? Because they can lose to Texas Tech. They have at Texas Tech and at Cincinnati left on their schedule for BYU. For BYU. But listen to me. I hear you on the other end. If BYU beats Texas Tech, and then they play in the conference championship again, and BYU wins that one, then you say, well, how's that fair?

They lost twice to BYU, Texas Tech did, and they beat Utah. How are you going to put Utah in over them? You say, well, it's three losses. Right. They've already lost twice to BYU. It was a while ago that Texas Tech, that Utah lost to September 20. and BYU only beat Utah by three points. Now, if it's the reverse in Texas Tech beats BYU twice,

then the committee will look at it and say, well, Texas Tech is in, and they went head to head, and it's two loss versus two loss, Utah versus BYU, and BYU beat them, and BYU was in the conference championship game. So Utah is fascinating. And interestingly enough, they play Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas. They're going to win out. Yeah.

Utah is. So they're just lurking. I want people to understand how important that Utah seating is at number 13. All right. Now let's get, we got to run. This is too long. We've got to taper off draft.

I know. I have more questions. We'll get into it later on too. Well, plenty of time. The Big Ten in the SEC, this is how I see. The Big Ten,

there are six programs that are vying for three or four spots. Conference champion is going to take up one of them. We just told you there's a, there's a clear path probably for like, if Indiana wins the conference, or Ohio State wins the conference, Indiana and Oregon, let's say. But Oregon can lose this week.

And they got USC later on too. So the six programs in the Big Ten, vying for three or four spots, depending on how this thing plays out, Ohio State and Indiana are in. Lock it. Correct. Oregon needs to play its way in,

but has a very clear path and a doable path, okay? Agreed. Then you've got, so those are three that we believe will be or very likely to be in. Then you've got Michigan, Iowa, and USC are on the outside looking in. And I know you look at this and you say, well, USC's 19, Todd. Iowa's 20. Michigan's 21. I say that because of who they're still have to play.

They can, they don't totally control their path, but if, you go look at each of their schedules and I'm not going to sit here and do this for everyone, but everyone who's a fan in that fan base, they know who you got left. Iowa's got Oregon this week. Michigan's got Ohio State. USC's got a couple big games. So if one of those teams were to go on a Clemson-like run like last year at the end of the season, don't count them out.

And if Notre Dame were to lose, maybe there's an additional spot for the Big Ten to get four in instead of three. Okay. Or if Notre Dame gets in and there's that one. one additional spot from the seven that I talked to you earlier from the at-larges. And Notre Dame wins, and they get one of them. So there's that one remaining spot. Does it go to the SEC or go to the Big Ten? The SEC's got a lot of clashes remaining in this final month of college football.

And so they could cannibalize while the Big Ten could have one of those programs. I'm talking about Michigan, Iowa, USC. USC's capable. Yeah. Michigan, it doesn't look like it. there's still, there's enough talent there. Yeah, Justice Haynes is out with a, like, he's out for a while. This is, that's an issue for them.

So anyway, so keep an eye on that. Then in the SEC, this is the final thing. Seven teams in my estimation are vying for four or five spots. And it gets tricky because I mentioned Texas has got Georgia and Texas, A&M. And would it be better for the conference for Texas to beat A&M to allow them to get in? And A&M's still getting in anyway or, you know, All that aside, there are seven teams, and I want to finish with this, there are two that are undefeated in conference right now,

and we strongly assume both will be in, even with a loss. That's Texas A&M and Alabama. Alabama has the one loss, A&M is undefeated overall. Alabama was Florida State first week, much better team than it was, all of those things. So that's two of those four or five spots. Then you've got Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas. all one loss in conference, right? Georgia and Ole Miss both have one lost in total.

Overall, Texas has two. One of them was Ohio State in the first week of the season, okay? Then you've got these two wild card teams, Oklahoma and Vandy. I don't see a path for Vandy. Oklahoma has a clear path because of the competition they're playing. But you don't feel great about it because of the competition, but they do. That's the, that's, you gave yourself, you bought a lottery,

You gave yourself a shot with that schedule. I mean, if you win those games, there's no way they can deny you. And you guarantee me a healthy Mateer like we saw against Michigan. Remember, Mathier was injured against Auburn. I think it was a lower body injury. And then Mathier got injured. No, it was the thumb then, right? Yeah, it was.

It played through the thumb. And then he had the surgery. So if you gave me pre-thumb injury, Mathier, and I haven't seen that yet, I've seen some strides, but I haven't seen that yet, I'd be like, they're capable. but I don't know but that's the beauty of the next four or five weeks

is we're gonna find out you know that's a lot of my brain hurts but that's awesome yeah all right we're gonna re-rack this thing

we've got rough draft is coming out tomorrow morning we had to do this extra show hope you hope everyone enjoyed it fired up for the weekend we gave you a couple fan dual picks the McShay reports

coming out tomorrow morning I talked to some scouts man I went to just watch tape and I watched a bunch of tape you and I are going to do risers and fallers in the NFL draft, but we got a lot of buzz and scoop, guys who have been on the road for eight weeks,

eight weeks, like the vast majority of eight weeks, going from school to school, racking up miles, talking to coaches, talking to people in the training table, watching tape, like all these sources and all this information,

and they're on the road, like literally talking to guys that we're in the car driving from this place to the next. Got some good information that we want to share on the show tomorrow morning, the rough draft, and also in the, McShay report. You can Google it and subscribe. We're heating up. We've got the college football

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