The McShay Show - Is Arch Manning the Real Deal? Let’s Check the Tape!

Episode Date: May 19, 2025

Welcome back to The McShay Show! Todd and Steve are kicking off their Summer Scouting Series, and the first player on the docket is Texas’s Arch Manning. The guys watched every snap of Arch’s 2024 tape and discuss where he’s special, what needs improvement, and the chances that he’d actually declare for the 2026 draft. (0:00) Welcome to The McShay Show! (1:02) Coming Up This Summer on The McShay Show(6:48) Congrats to Joe Douglas returning to the Eagles(11:45) Evaluating Arch Manning(43:37) Scenarios for Arch To Declare into the 2026 Draft Class(50:28) Expectations for Arch's 2025 Season(56:33) Checkout Perone's Gourmet Italian(1:01:46) Please like, comment, and subscribe! On Thursday, we’ll be diving into LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier’s tape. Be sure to tune in and subscribe to The McShay Report for access to all of our summer scouting content. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Todd McShayGuest: Steve MuenchProducers: Tucker Tashjian, Mark Panik, Conor Nevins, and Daniel ComerSocial: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The senior bowl tagline is that the draft starts in Mobile, and that's in January. And in a lot of ways, it does for the media, coaches, and fans. But the factor of the matter is, it starts right now for NFL scouts. So if our mission is to share the year-round process with our committed audience, we're sure as hell not going to go dark on you right now, right? So as promised, it's Monday. It's May 19th. And today, we kick off our summer scouting series with a player that,

may or may not be a part of the 2026 draft class, Texas quarterback, Arch Manning. Just 339 days until next year's NFL draft. Mench, you good? I'm good, man. All right, let's roll. The bow has been put on the 2025 NFL draft. We'll revisit it.

We're going to have mail bags. We're going to answer questions. We've got a lot to get to in terms of kind of wrapping up what it looks like. I think come back in August to preview the season. look at what the rookie players are doing in training camp. We've got a lot of intel, but now we turn the page, right? We said it last week. Monday, we shove it down their throats.

And here we are. And it's Monday, and I'm excited to share this. Honestly, we've spent a lot of time, and I'm not going to go back to the dog walking meeting that I had with our executive producer, Connor Nevins, and Connor telling Marissa that, hey, Sometimes we've got to protect people against themselves and talking about me and the mensch calling me and pleading with me. Let's do the right thing. And finally all came together.

And it's let's let's dial back all these three-year deep dive studies and all that. Let's, like we promised in October 22nd when we started this thing, we're going to share the year-round process that is scouting. So like when we talk to our buddies in the league right now, it's getting ready for, for next year. It's like they're already, honestly God, here's a funny thing. I'm not sure everyone knows. I'll talk to some scouts, some area scouts in April before the draft. And it's like, and it depends on the organization. But it's like, yeah, I'm kind of like, you know, they've blocked me out. It's now a meeting of like the top people, right? And like, I knew what the board looked like, but essentially like it was my job to present my players, my cross checks,

all of my information, and now it's the executives, the top, you know, the general manager, the head coach, the owner in some situations, whoever that leadership council would be, if you will. And so for some scouts, they were already in April starting in on the tape for next year. And obviously last year, we've probably like 40 to 50 players that we wrote up for last year's draft. They got a little NIL scratch, maybe hit the transfer portal and decided to come back to school. So we got to jump on that, just like NFL scouts have a jump on that. But right now it's about, all right, we got all this tape.

Maybe it's three years of tape. Maybe it's two. Maybe in the case of Archmanning, it's two starts. And what was it? 233 snaps that he took took last year. We're going to get into our team. Passing attempts, right? I think he had 90 passing attempts.

90 passing. 107 dropbacks, 90 passing attempts, okay? Right. And there was a key. a key clip, a key play clip for Arch of 70 plays. And in key plays, it's plays where negative, positive, there was something impactful that if you're scouting a player, you're trying to get to know this player,

those are the plays where you have to put your eyes on it, right? I do want to mention before we jump into Arch Manning, and this is kicking off our summer scouting series. We're going to go top to bottom. We're starting with Arch, and we'll get into the reasons why we start with Arch in a second. And we'll go through the potential QB-1s. We'll go through kind of some of the position groups, like the wide receiver group,

a lot more talent this year. Anyone up in that elite tier, we'll talk about that. We're going to talk about some organizations and programs, I should say. They're basically organizations now, like Clemson. It's been out of the, haven't been in the same level, kind of out of the limelight of the Georgia's and the Alabama's and the Michigan's and the Ohio states in recent years. It's been almost a decade since we've talked about. the talent level being up there with the other elite class.

Well, they're back and we're going to break it down. We're going to spend time. Steve and I watching tape to figure out, like, is it real or is it just because they got a bunch of upperclassmen? So this summer scouting series is something that Steve and I are proud of. We've been doing it for 20 plus years. We just haven't told anybody about it. We haven't had an outlet or a forum to walk everyone through it.

And we promised each other when Steve and I were talking about this concept way prior to October 22nd when we started last year. We felt a responsibility if we're going to do this the right way to share our process, which we've emulated the NFL scouting process as close as we can, given it's just a two-person staff. Right. And it's been great. It's been five people. It's been four people. We've had Pete Seusses and Joan Nagels and Jim Nagy's and Dean Dalton's and Gary Hortons.

We've had all sorts of people. But from the- Kevin Weidel. Obviously, Kevin Weidel was the greatest of all. That was the golden era. Yeah, the golden era. But we promised that we were going to do it this way. And here we are. Monday, May 19th.

And I'm excited to begin sharing for the next few months as we get ready for the college football season, for the NFL season, both 2025. what scouts are doing now, what our process is. And I'm like, I think people are going to respond well. Why wouldn't you want to start to get this information now? Why wait until August? Why wait until October? Why wait until the draft starts in Mobile in January?

And it's a great catchy line. It's, you know? And like I said in the open, in a lot of ways, it's true. Because that's when the NFL coaches stop coaching the season. They're there. They start to scout with the scouts. General managers get more involved. the media starts to pay attention to the draft,

the fans start paying attention to the draft. But people who are watching the show want to know now, and that's what we're going to start doing. I do want to mention this first before we get started on Archmanning. Our buddy Joe's back in the league, bro. Joe took no time. Took no time. I had a great conversation with Joe, as did you.

We talked to him personally, privately. We talked to him on this show. If you want to go, we had a great interview. I hate saying interview. Joe's a great friend of ours. Joe's a great friend of the of the show. And we had Joe on and we had a bunch of laughs right before the draft. It was kind of like a mental release and we were able to just kind of have some fun and talk about the process a little bit.

If you want to check that out, it's on our YouTube page, the McShay show. Okay. But when we talked to him privately, he was kind of, you know, like we all have families. You know, a lot of us have kids. You and I both have kids. and families sometimes have to make a lot of sacrifices. And so an opportunity arose for Joe, and I texted him. I don't know that he's texted back yet.

And so it's just a report that came out, right? I shot him a text and we'll maybe get some more information if there's even more that needs to be out there. But honestly, we're just saying this, like, congratulations to Joe, because I know part of it, kind of giving back to the family, making sure that kids are in a place that they want to be. They love their time in the Philadelphia area, love their time with the Eagles.

was a critical part of building a Super Bowl there with Howard Roseman and that staff. Now he gets to go back there. I kind of want to see is Joe going to help out on the offensive line, too, a little bit. That'd be interesting, huh? I'd love to see that. Just a dream of mine to see Joe in the trenches. They got a pretty good offensive line coach there, though. I was going to say, I'm not sure they need to help, but it would be nice.

No, I'm just saying. But Joe's going to be part of it. And I don't know exactly what you sent me the article, actually. senior scouting senior advisor role so it's perfect yeah he's not chasing the money he's not chasing super bowl rings he's got what three three of those i think so um he wouldn't mind a couple more rings i think he still wants course not i'm just saying now it's about a little bit let's take a couple years and make sure my family's taking care of and and let's let's do it we talked to holly roseman too that's another interview these gm interviews have been awesome we're going to ramp it back up

next, after next season. The decision maker series. But just talking to Howie, how many times did he reference Joe and his like appreciation for him and like the stories that he told. And that's another thing you can check out on our on our YouTube page. Thank you, everyone for being here. Thank you for downloading for for supporting. Thank you for the likes.

Thank you for everything that you do. Subscribing. As you can see, Mench has always been better at this than me. But also thank you for subscribing to the McShay report. And we had another one drop this morning. And I provided, like, Dan, Dan Comer are like Mr. Everything, right? We talked through a bunch of stuff last night.

I was watching Arch before I left one way for the weekend with my family, came back last night, get back off the ferry, drive everyone back home, Sunday night traffic, coming back from the Cape, but, but, but, blah, I get here and I got to finish up the Arch. tape notes and we work through a bunch of notes and the mcshay report it's kind of cool he just decided to keep i've got a bunch of crazy notes in there with exclamation points and all caps and like the way i write and i don't know check it out it's kind of cool because it's it's it's raw it's one of my favorite thank you i like it i like it i mean i was saying it honestly before you

even came on we were i was talking to the rest of the guys before you came on i said that was one the things i loved about it it's just your notes we don't get it like we don't need to get into this He threw the ball downfield with great velocity and fierceness. And he didn't know. He rolled his left, flicked it downfield, 40 yards. He did this and that's an NFL play. You know, just because that's what you're writing. You're not fleshing this thing out.

And by the way, GMs don't want to hear all that. You know, give it to me, if you can say in 10 words, I don't want 50, man. Just give me the, we're not, this is not, you know, who's going to be the best writer in the world. We're not Shakespeare. We're not any of that crap. We are just trying to convey what we saw, what we saw. what we think of a player. And that's what I really liked about.

By the way, it's as short as that that was. I mean, you went in on it, man. This is like, there's about four, I printed it out. I have like four pages of notes on Arch Manning, on a guy who had 90 passing attempts. And I think it's a really good look and honest look, a, you know, well-rounded, complete look at who this player is and where he is in the process.

Honestly, I hate giving you compliments. I think it's funny when people comment and say, like, I'm really propping you up because most of the show, I'm just tearing you down. I'm like, oh, it must be the first episode. I hate giving you. Certainly off camera, you're always. Yes.

With the Michelle report, it was really good this week. This is a great addition of it. Well, first of all, thank you. And second of all, it seems like a perfect, perfect time to just dive right in. Let me start with this on Archmanning. I want to make it perfectly clear. A couple things. I want to make it perfectly clear.

We're doing this as a foundation because, because there's like the face of college football, next year is going to be Arch Manning to start, right? And because of the Manning name, because of Texas, because of Sark, because of all of it, it's going to be, he's, he and Texas are going to be one of the biggest storylines. In addition, there's already speculation about, is it a 2026 NFL draft? Is it a 27 NFL draft? How could it go? Could it be the number one overall pick? All those things. So we just started the summer scouting series with arch manning because why not like we're i'm not here to hide from topics i'm here to talk about them openly and let's have a discussion so here's where i want to start on this mitch and then you can take it wherever you want and i just want about mench watch the

tape i watch the tape that we have not talked on purpose and we're going to continue to do it we usually do that right yeah exact way because it would just be like us in a hotel room or getting on the phone and when we're just talking about players. Munch comes in and he's got his angle and what he saw just like any like a scout from the West Coast could have a concept on a player and then the cross-check from the southeast could have a concept on a player or an idea or a grade that's different and then you talk it through and it doesn't mean you're going to meet in the middle but the decision maker the general manager has got both sides and then he's he's watched his tape he's talked to his sort

So like this is the healthy part of the evaluation process. And so I want to start with this with Arch. This is kind of my, all right, I'm done with his tape. It wasn't a ton of tape, but what's out there I'm done with. And the first thing when I was kind of wrapping up that I started to think was if he wasn't a Manning and if he had different financial circumstances, and if he were to go on and show the same level of improvement and growth that I saw from him in a short period of time early in the season when he was finishing a game against, was a UTSA,

and then when he started a game against Louisiana Monroe and started the next game against Mississippi State, if I would, you know, crystal ball it. And even without the crystal ball, based off of my experience and history studying players, like I see that growth in a short period of time. And so if his name isn't Manning and if he doesn't have the financial circumstances that he does, and if I saw and seeing what I saw on tape and the growth that I expect to see him have, and that's not guaranteed, but based off of those three factors, I'm telling you right now, Munch, this is my biggest takeaway.

I'd have no problem. I'd sleep easy at night. Writing in Arch Manning number one overall prospect in the 2026 draft, even though I saw 70 key plays, even though I saw 90 pass attempts. And it's just not enough. But it's a projection. Prospects, you have to have projections. Now, the truth of the matter is, he is a Manning.

Truth of the matter is, his family's fine, whether he's in the NFL or not financially. His dad's Cooper. His dad's not Eli. His dad's not Peyton. So their finances probably aren't as good. They're pretty good. They're not hurting for a paycheck. They don't, and that's not always the case with these prospects, right?

And furthering it, even if arts were to break off from the Manning family. I don't know exactly what the NIL money is. There's different numbers that are reported, but it's several million dollars that he's going to make at Texas as the Longhorn starting quarterback back in 2025. So he personally, even if you broke the Manning name off, if it was Arch Smith, he's just fine. Okay. And then there's the history of the Mannings of Eli coming back and surprising a lot of people for his last year at Ole Miss with Coach Cutcliffe. Same with Peyton Manning. They were surprises. Now, we were in college, but I remember going back and reading about it and talking to Gary Horton, our mentor,

and the great debate was what it was. It was Ryan Lee versus Peyton. So they are as well equipped as any family to understand and have shown through history, through proof that they value the importance of learning and starting games in college. It's the old Parcells theory. And I think it's actually, I forget, it was the number 24 or 25, starts, whatever that number was, minimum of that number starts, needs to be a college graduate, all those things.

Well, what's happened now, there was a period in time, if you remember, that's like Mark Sanchez was 13 starts, and Vince Young didn't quite have his enough starts, and Mitch Trubisky was 13 starts. And most recently, Anthony Richardson, 13 starts. None of it has played out very well with those guys. And more so, there's positive evidence. that more starts in college doesn't always, but it typically correlates with NFL readiness at that position.

Bo Nix is a shining example. He had the most starts of any college player coming out of Oregon after transferring from Auburn of any college player at the time. It was 63 or 64 starts. Yeah, only Dylan Gabriel beat it. But that was after the fact. At the time, when he came out, he had the most. And most people in the league had him as a second round,

had a second round grade on them or a grade that was equivalent to a second round draft pick. I think that's fair, yeah. And Sean Payton didn't see it that way. Sean Peyton didn't see it with with R.J. Harvey.

Sean Peyton didn't see it with your boy, Pat Bryant. And like when Sean sees when he has a clear vision of what's going to work, he saw that in Bo Nix. And Bo Nix came in and because he was so experienced and he had been through wars and he had failed.

and he had picked himself off the mat and he fought back and he finished successful. He saw all those things. He's like, that's my guy. And even Jaden Daniels, Jaden Daniels, people forget. He was like third, fourth round prospect. Some people thought fifth going into his final year at LSU became the number two overall pick. And now he's an absolute sensation for the Washington commanders. On the flip side, Caleb Williams didn't have as many.

he starts as Jaden or or Bonex right. Drake May actually didn't have as many starts. Yep. They still had more than like the Parcell's number, but my point in saying all of this is the Manning family has been validated in their decisions to promote Peyton and promote Eli going back for their final years of school. When they came in the league,

it wasn't all. And by the way, Eli really struggled as a rookie. Peyton had struggles as a rookie. but they were ready to endure those struggles. Because it wasn't their 19th start after high school. Their first start in the NFL wasn't their 19th or 20th or 14th start after high school. You know what I mean?

So you factor all those things in, and I want to, we'll come back to it at the end. And we'll talk about Seth Wickersham, our good friend who, by the way, is a friend of the show and has been very, supportive of us. I'm not even sure I've shared that with you. And some of the story with Caleb Williams and, and, and, and Archie, you know, we can get to all that later. But my point in prefaceing all of this

as we get into the scouting report is we're doing this to prepare for the season. We're doing this to prepare as a foundation for Arch's, um, Arch's scouting report. And whether it's for 2026 or 27, I don't care at this point because we'd go back and do this later anyway. And we, for our own purposes as part of our process that we're sharing with you, the audience, we're doing it now because we would mention I would be doing this now regardless. Start a foundation report. Circle back at the end of the season, write that report. And even if Arch isn't right, decides, I'll see in 2027, we still got a full season as a starter.

and we got 2024, the two games he started, and the 233 snaps he took. That's part of the process. That's why we're doing it. So the floor is now yours, Munch, because I obviously, I know. I can hear a layer in my sweet allaire, my daughter in my year. Every time I do this, 22 minutes in, and I've barely let you say a word. We were rolling.

Let, let Munchy talk. Would you let Munchy talk? So here you, you tell me what your initial thought. whatever wherever you want to take this you get started on arch and what you saw on his take i just i just want to address a couple of things you said one i agree with wholeheartedly one i have uh reservations about okay okay you are i think i don't even think it's a debate i don't think you debate how well the mannings have handled this situation when you look at his at arch manning's recruitment out of high school coming out of isidore newman where his uncles played where his dad

played the way they handled the recruitment i think has been great for him I think they're putting him in the best position to succeed. Paring him with Steve Sarkesian, the head coach of Texas, is a great move for them. They are, you are, you can't be more right about a point you've made on this show. He is in the best position for a quarterback to develop and succeed. I want to get back really quickly to you saying if he wasn't a manning, and it really doesn't have much to do with this, whether or not he's a manning, but being comfortable about penciling him in as the top prospect in the 2026 draft, right?

Is that what you said? Yes. Man, I'm not ready. I am going to get into this now. I'm not ready to go there. I just don't. I haven't seen enough. I need more.

We do this. I've done this. I think other evaluators have done this where you, I get it's a little bit of a projection. And I get it. And I get that. No, it's a lot. It's a lot of a projection.

Yeah. So let's start here. Let's start here with why people are going to make that projection. And you make this point in the McShay report. I'm going to echo it right now. The tools are all there, man. 6-4-220 is what he's listed on the school website. I'm guessing he's every bit that.

big. When you watch how strong his base is in the pocket, the way he throws with that strong base. I mean, he's shaking off grown men at times. In these limited snaps we've seen, he is shaking guys off. He throws with a strong base. He gets a good zip on the ball. His mobility, I want him to run more this year. I want him to make more plays with his feet. Now, I don't want him to turn into a guy who's always running. But when you see him take off, you get excited about what he can do as a runner. Okay. So you're talking about mobility.

You're talking about size. You're talking about arm talent. Check, check, check. All of the tools for him to become an elite quarterback are there. So I think that's where you would start with his evaluation. Would you agree? Absolutely. And that's where I started.

And I'll add to that here so we can just kind of check off the box of tools. The ball snaps off his hand. And again, and I think I wrote in the McShay report, like, it's not the mo it's not lamar mobility um it's not it's not it's not the arm strength of josh allen okay but like it's check plus plus for both because it's a combination talking about mobility for second it's a combination of like it's not lateral right but it's it's smooth athletic um slippery enough strong as you mentioned strong i like there are times where guys are kind of hanging on him.

But there's like a level of like not like Josh Allen just kicks your ass as a pass rusher sometimes just like the kind of Rothless Burger like rips you off like it's hard to bring down. He's more hard to bring now because he's got a level of like strength and that will continue to develop. But it's also this like slipperiness. He's coordinated. Very coordinated for his frame.

A good example of that really quickly is that Mississippi State throw. Todd lists a bunch of throws. I mean, it's 10 plus throws in the McShea report about this is what I'm seeing on this throw. This is what I'm concerned about. This is what I'm excited about it. There's a throw with five minutes left in the third quarter of the Mississippi State game where he kind of slides and then climbs and then makes an accurate throw to the deep crosser. Yeah. And you look at that play.

And I don't know how it was an evaluator. And like, damn, like that's, I mean. That's NFL stuff. Yeah, there we go, man. If you can do that at a consistent basis, you're going to have a long ass. career in the NFL man. But then there's also that balance, it's slipperyness, by the way. Sorry.

No, absolutely. And then there's also the flick the wrist 50 yards. Right. And like the 1447 fourth quarter UTSA, first or second play of the fourth quarter against UTSA, there's stuff his uncles couldn't do. Right. Yeah. He's got, you know, like he's got Cooper's, like he's Cooper's son, 1115 second quarter.

UTSA. One cut and go. Like the dude has wheels, I wrote. Clearly Cooper's the athlete. Cooper was a receiver. Right. He was. Yeah, that's right.

I don't think you realize that. So he's got like he's got he's got he's got grandpappy's creativity and ability to make plays like on the run. If you go back and watch the highlights of like the saints with with Archie Manning, he's got he's got some of his of, of, uh, there's unks in him. You know, Uncle Peyton and Eli with the, that one, he's you talked about climbing. sliding. You can see like Peyton, like Eli, like the mechanics and especially Peyton, you know, like the climb and the slide. But he's got his, he's got his tads. I don't want to say

it's a perfect blend of all that he's like that. But I'm just saying like he's got tools. And the ball snaps off his hand. And even like Peyton didn't have the greatest arm. He had a really good arm and the ball would come out kind of fluttering all those like NFL films. Do you go back? but there's some energy behind his throw. So I just, as we're talking about the traits, there's this combination of size, slippery, strong, ball explodes off his hand. Like, it's all there.

It's all their tools-wise. And there's also things about playing, just playing the position, being a quarterback that are excited. There are times you're excited about where he is in the process in terms of, you know, manipulating the coverage with his eyes and finding, you know, getting through his reads, finding guys late, but I think we're going to get in this too. There's room for improvement in terms of where he is.

Right. So do you want to get into that now? I will say there's one throw that reminded me of his uncle Eli. And I remember watching, I shouldn't age myself like this, but I remember watching Eli Manning at Ole Miss. And this was an Eli Manning throw to me. There's a throw. It's not on your list, actually.

It's in the Florida game. It's in the 628 left. down the left the left rail unbelievable to the running back he moves to his left never sets his feet and just lofts the ball over the i think it was a linebacker i might be wrong about it but i think it was a lineback running with the running back the touch on that throw because that was the thing about elmiss that was the thing that i loved about elmiss his touch was like no other quarterbacks in that draft that had ralphus berger and rivers i was a great draft his touch was outstanding coming out of Ole Miss. And that, I saw that throw. I was like, that looks familiar to me. I've seen that

before. It's interesting in my notes, because you get done with your notes. And I went through, I watched 233 snaps. No, did the old Andy Wytle, put the computer down, get the, smart, get the freaking pen out of your hand. Would you just watch the tape and stop trying to make an assessment off of every play, you know? And so I just watched it, kind of sat here and just watched it, tried not to like let my brain go anywhere just watched it then i came back and did the key plays and i went and watched some specific runs some specific throws right uh so i got done with my notes and i always like to go back and read the notes from beginning to end and in this case it was really enlightening okay because in the beginning i'm writing things like hangs on hangs on first

read a tick too long identifies the crosser coming open snap uh snaps off the ball sharp accurate ball to Jante Cook takes down inside the receiver took it down inside the 10-yard line. That was 404 third quarter against Colorado State. But it's like every note that I had in there, there was a caveat, right? A great throw, got inside the 10-yard line, but like I need to see this ball come out earlier, right? And then like, and then the goal line. He gets greedy, right? He gets greedy a little bit.

You know, the saying, you'll never go broke, taking a problem. There are times where he wants the he wants that big hitter. He wants that, you know, he wants to turn into the big parlay instead of just taking the winner underneath where he can hit the back or the tight end and it'll force the ball downfield a little bit. I love this conversation. You know why? Because you might be right.

I got more of a sense, especially Earl, like the Colorado State and then he came in the game against UTSA. Didn't start that one, but that's when, that's when, that's when. And Quinn Ewers got, like, I think the injury happened against Michigan. He couldn't finish that game, however it played up. But in the UTSA game, and then I thought even early in the Louisiana Monroe game, I got the sense like, and I'm taking too many steps, but almost like that there's a level of understanding of the circumstance of like, let's not go in there.

And Sark probably drilling at home. of let's not go in there and make some some huge mistake. Let's protect the football. Let's not turn this into a media frenzy where you go and come out and make a few big mistakes. And maybe it wasn't even that. Maybe it was just an inexperienced quarterback seeing bullets fly for the first time in some kind of extended period of play. But I viewed it more as I think he really was locking on to his primary too long.

and I also saw a young quarterback, and I remember doing the same thing, and I've watched hundreds now quarterbacks, especially early in their career in college. You want to see it. And Jaden Daniels, this is what the conversation I had with Brian Kelly before that Tennessee game, when they got smoked, let it rip.

He said, we sit there in practice. Just let it rip. Trust your eyes. You can throw with anticipation. We see you do it. You're deadly accurate. when you throw to a spot and let the receiver run to it. Do it.

Trust the read. Trust your receiver. Trust the concept. Let it rip. I saw a quarterback who was guarded against that. Really? I did. I thought he was ripping some,

trying to rip some into some tight windows on in breaking routes where he could have hit his back or tight end underneath. Okay. I did see that too. By the way, the Georgia game, which is interesting, and now we're just going to keep going here.

Yeah, yeah. I actually thought he did a better job. in the Georgia game of finding guys underneath and that he kind of calmed down a little bit there. Now, obviously, that was a train wreck in terms of their protections. They were not picking up. There was a lot of free rushers in that game, and that's a different kind of a topic. But I did think he did a better job in that one specific area of his game of kind of taking what he got in the Georgia game.

I saw, but yes, yes, I agree. I saw there were some cool things that I started to appreciate, right? One of the cool things was, and I mentioned that 4-04 remaining third quarter against Colorado State. It was 38 to nothing. Hanging on the tick too long, remember, and then drilled it, great throw, sharp throw, accurate ball. Jonte Cook takes it inside the 10. They come back UTSA, and now it's middle of the second quarter. It's 12-19 second quarter.

Same concept as that one in the third quarter of Colorado. state same concept rolling right a little bit again but this time comes off the initial read faster and and makes the completion it's the same throw same movement same everything i saw it a tick faster and i'm like that's cool because you know like so they go and study the colorado state tape and like you're going to play right he's listening sark and sark we got to get this ball at we're a tick late quarter count late let's go i saw so like and i saw little pieces of of that as we went through. But then just a little bit later, same quarter, second quarter, UTSA,

it was 415 and ran in the second quarter, took a sack. All his fault. Locks on to his primary too long on the right side. He's got a cat blitz, corner blitz coming off the backside edge. His protection, so it's his responsibility. And I'm watching it. I'm literally watching it. I'm like, oh, shit, here we go.

And it was. whack. And find me a quarterback from like Marino to Elway to the mannings to Brady to every great one. We they, it's all happened. And as you get older and you get more reps and you learn like the mental clock how to get the ball out. You it's still going to happen every once in a while. You're going to get fooled. But it happens fewer and farther between, right? Yeah. I mean, you take it wherever you want to go. Well, I would say that that is an issue for him in terms of recognizing pressures and how he's going to beat those pressures.

And there was a couple of times where I thought he had numbers to one side of the field and he was locked on the other side of the field and pressure came in a certain direction. Just stuff like that. There, you know, the nuances of the game that's only, look, there's, they come with more experience. There was two things. There was that to me where, you know, the mental part of, you know, picking up pressures. And then there's also, I thought that his, his ball placement was the, inconsistent to me. And I give younger quarterbacks the benefit of the doubt with those in terms of

I think it's different when you're the starter. You get to settle down. Whereas when you go in, I don't know what necessarily a player's mentality is in that situation. They might be pressing a little bit. They might be overexcited a little bit. I think that can affect your accuracy. I think that, you know, as you get more snaps, you're going to get better reading pressures. All of these things are related to inexperience. And that's what I'm looking at him. And a lot of the negatives to me are just inexperienced because again, we already talked about how he's got all the skills. But this is the thing about it, and this is what goes back to my initial comments after you spoke. We don't know yet. My thought process is with you right now and that it is inexperienced.

And when he gets more snaps and when he gets to settle in and be the guy, and he knows that he's the guy now, he's not coming in and filling in for Quinn Ewer's like, this is his team now. And he's not worried about what he's going to do in terms of plays. He can go out, execute, figure out when he can push, when he can try to make plays downfield, all of the stuff that comes with that, will it all come together for him? There's certainly every reason in the world to be optimistic about it and to be excited about it.

I am excited about this player, but until I see it on a little more consistent basis, until I see some more snaps, because we've seen this before, not necessarily at this level. I think this is other quarterback studies on steroids, to be honestly, but if you look at Connor Wegman from Texas A&M last year, he was in a lot of first round mocks.

and by the third or fourth game in the season, he's on the bench, and he's now playing for the Houston Cougars. And he has, we'll see what he does this year. I'm excited to see what he does. And if he can bounce back. But you don't know.

And again, look at Texas's situation along the offensive line. Three, you could say four new starters with Goosby, I think maybe it's three new starters, whatever you want to look at it. There's a lot of things in flux at Texas with the receivers and the offensive line and how's that all going to come together for him? And what's that going to mean in terms of his momentum and development? There's a lot of stuff here.

Yes. It's so many moving parts that I have a hard time saying that you should be the first overall prospect. Understood. I'll come back to that in a second. I don't think you're wrong. And actually, like, I, there's, I'm not ignoring it. I just want to, I want to interject one thing that actually speaks exactly to what you're saying. I mentioned those 70 key plays, right?

where and essentially you can watch the 233 plays and what you're going to wind up writing the notes on from those 70 key plays. It's important for our audience to understand 56 of those 70 key plays were against Colorado State, UTSA, Louisiana Monroe, and a putrid Mississippi State defense. Horrid, 105 in passing yards allowed per game last year. And I can remember telling like Nico I amaliava, remember we were kind of making the joke and not laughing at him, but kind of just like it is what it is. Like overshooting the receiver down the field and throwing now the back of the end zone, running free.

And I said to you at that point, this is like November, my goal, Mississippi State's defense is horrid. And they were. So the reason I say that is the 56 of those 70 clips were against those teams. Now, there were 16 plays, or no, sorry, 14 plays that were against Georgia the first time around, five, but only five key plays. Florida, four key plays. A&M, one. Georgia, second time around the SEC championship game, one.

Clemson, CFP, two. Ohio State, CFP, one. Okay. And then let's, let's whittle it down a little bit further. drill in six of those were running plays of those 14 six were running plays two were design passes that were sacks he was one of four passing and one was one of the key plays was a handoff if the running back actually muffed the handoff it wasn't his fault but who cares it was a handoff um not a lot to go off right right yeah not a lot to go off so that's that is like that's slamming

down the gavel for your point. Right. But I want to reopen it. We're not that far off, by the way. I'm super excited about the player. I am super excited about the player. I just get, I get worried, man. I won't more.

Your honor, like, I don't want a final judgment yet. Like, I still have a couple arguments to make, you know? No, but it's a very realistic, grounded point. that you're making it is my point in leading this is I'm not and I didn't mention it and I purposely didn't mention it I would put him but I would put him number one overall going into 2026 and I'd get more clicks on my mock draft and I'd get more clicks on my top 100 and I and we could do all these shows on arch is going to be the number one even though we know in the back of our brains, it's not likely.

But it's just not the show we're doing. It's not the people we are. It's not how we've built the credibility in this business that we've built. Right? So while I say, I have enough because I know he's the most talented quarterback of the guys that we're going to be talking about in 2026. I'm not going to do it. I'm not going to do it because, A, we haven't seen enough. but B, I want to look at the big picture.

And the big picture is he is a Manning. He is making multiple millions of dollars next year. He has Manning family funding. There is no rush. And I promise you, like, no one involved from Archie to Eli to Peyton to Cooper, to Arch himself because he's grown up this family and he's learned to certainly sark is in a rush no one's in a rush and here's the other thing to remember we talk about the parcels of 23 24 25 whatever that number is that number is

you would think in modern day that we would oh the numbers coming down you could play 19 it's going up because guys we're stacking data each and every year and so when we see a jaden daniels in the 56 six starts or whatever he had. And we see a bow next in his 63 or 64 starts. And we see the success they had as rookies. And they were more successful than guys that didn't play as many, have as many starts. I want people to understand, Arch, even if they have a,

what was the most games last year? Ohio State 17. I think 17 was the most. That sounds right, yes. I think it's, let's call it 17. Let's say Texas goes on an awesome run. They win a national championship. He starts 17 games.

You know how many starts you'd have going in the league? 16. Yeah, I know. You're right. If he started 17 games, let's say he won all of them. So he'd be 19 and 0 as a starter, but you know how many starts he'd have? 19. 19.

Yeah. That's what I mean, yeah. My experience, and I don't know, like I met Peyton, I met Eli. I know, honestly, I know Archie the best. Like we text it a lot of years about the Manning Camp and all that stuff and trying to help make sure he's got all the players there. But I know them through a lot of other people too. And I have a lot of like good stories and experiences live through the eyes and brains of other people. I just know, I just know that family when it comes to these type of matters.

I don't pretend to know the Manning family and what goes on at dinner there. but I know I know their view on football in the world and their grandson who's this unbelievably talented player we started this whole show off with his traits his traits are phenomenal I don't think that they're going to want him to go into the league after 19 starts and it's probably more likely to be 16 17 starts right do you there's one caveat to that right okay and I think it's about timing let's say the Jets have a terrible year and they have the first overall pick in the 2026 draft. I think Archman is going back to Texas.

If he's the guy that, if he could be the first overall pick, he's going back to Texas. Now, if you go into that draft and you know that the Rams might be able to trade up to that first overall pick or Minnesota has a terrible year and somehow ends up with the first overall pick, which I think is highly unlikely. But if you find a situation where you've got a play caller, you've got an organization, you've got decision makers that you like and think are a good landing spot for him, I think the game changes a little bit. I think you're now looking at it a little bit differently in saying yourself, we'd love for Arch to go back for another season, but then we don't really know where

he's going to go. You give yourself that two-year window, I think. Whereas if you go, if he, let's say that Arch has that 17-0 year, he has a great year. We still want him to go back for another season. We still want him to get more seasoning, more developing, all of that stuff. Sark is the best let's let's do that but all of a sudden kevin o'connell has the first overall pick in this draft and you don't know if you're going to get a guy like that the next next time around then i'm starting to think a lot about what about what about sean mcvay with two first round picks that's what i mean sean mcfay said the same thing if the rams straight up too yeah what these are the names who else you got you got like shanhan man mannhan macfay yep again i like these shanhanes a lot happens in a single year

in football man so much happens that i think there are there are certain situations that seem unlikely now but they could yeah i'm not saying to totally move it out like i'm not saying i absolutely know that he's not i'm just saying i'm not ready to start getting clickbait and all that no no you're right you're by throwing him in my 2026 way too early mock draft and i promise you when i come out in august and i do the appropriately appropriately appropriately early mock draft after we've done all this tape study and I feel better about the players that I'm putting in the first round, I'm not putting them in there either because no. As of right now, we don't know.

But if you hear November and December that he might be, then you'll start adding him in. You're going to do it based on the most likely of possibilities, what you're hearing, what you're seeing, all of that stuff. Right now, the odds are better that he goes back, I think. I agree with you. I do think there's situations where he could come out, but I think it's unlikely like you were saying. I think developing a quarterback is a process. Yes. And I think that they've had all along. And I don't think it's like some some sinister plan that the Mannings have plotted and they've worked

behind the scenes. Nah, that may come in 2026 or 2027 trying to get him on the right team. It was a massively failed attempt by Shador Sanders in his camp and his father specifically with Coach Prime. I think he would be willing to admit that at this point. Because they overvalued. you, they thought they had the hammer that they could drop it and they just didn't, they never had the hammer. I'm saying at some point, based off of what I'm seeing, I think the mannings are once again, like they did with Eli, they had with Eli, they're going to have the hammer. And so, you know, Seth, Wickersham, that article was interesting.

Seth, as I mentioned, friend of the show, I can't wait to read to read the book that comes out. And I wrote it down. It's a good name, too. The Kings, the American Kings. American Kings. American Kings. Yes.

And so that's coming out soon. I'm excited to read it. But part of the article that came out, and obviously they're trying to get attention for the book, as they well should. And I'm sure it's phenomenal. Like, Seth doesn't do anything half-ass. Seth, like, gets great information. But part of that was talking about Caleb Williams and his father and reaching out to Archie,

because why wouldn't you? And the collective bargaining agreement, how it's just not right. It's not American and trying to circumvent the bears drafting him. Caleb didn't want to go there. And honestly, for good reasons. Like, you got a defensive coach in Iber Fluse. You've got Shane Waldron who just wasn't proven enough. And I remember having conversations saying, I'm not saying Walderin can't do it.

Wouldn't be the guy. Now they got the guy Ben Johnson. So that's all to come. Yeah, I'm not talking about manipulating it, by the way, or doing something like that. I'm just saying if you're reading the field and you have an opportunity for your grandson, your son, your nephew to go to a great spot,

you maybe take advantage of that, so you don't have to worry about all the stuff down the road. You know what I mean? You could keep him in for another two years and then get into a situation where he's such an elite prospect that then you try to figure out where he's going to go with the same way that they did with Eli. I'm not saying that.

What I'm saying is that if you can avoid all of that, If in the 2026 draft, one of these teams goes up and is in a spot where you like where he's going to go, then maybe you consider him coming out. The other stuff will see. That's going to all unfold in its own time. I don't disagree that there will probably be a conversation depending on those circumstances. Right. And depending on how Arch plays this next season.

But I think much more likely, and I would be shocked if I talked to Archie this summer, And he would never ship. But like if you were to get the actual behind this, if this wasn't like, this is about the process and the process of developing a quarterback who has the tools to be great. And we're both agreeing he's got the tools to be great. And so like I can't imagine a human being in the world would have better circumstances to develop that talent and to bring that greatness out. whether it's, you know, from the uncles that you can lean on to the grandfather you can lean on, to the experience that they have to handpicking coach Sarkesian, who's one of the most,

you know, put them in the very short list of the most, like, like perfectly equipped human beings on this planet in the college game to develop as a head coach, to the talent that Texas has, through the resources external and internal that this young man has. And that's why I'm saying, like, I, I feel like I'm be shocked if he won't be the number one overall pick, whatever year that is. But the mannings are looking at this as a process. Just like you hear like Nick Saban, like it's the process. And that was step one.

The 233 snaps, the 70 key plays, the 90 pass attempts, the 17 runs. That was step one. Step two is now, and you got to a lot of it, but this is what I wrote down. Step two is now you're the guy, okay, and all the pressures of being the guy. Because they did, I don't know how they did it, but they put them in some bubble wrap in Austin, in that media market for that team with the struggles and the injuries that that starting quarterback was having. And how, like, there were times when you were years became a liability and certainly wasn't an. asset and they beautifully it's one of the best things that coach sark did and he did a lot of phenomenal things to get in that texas program where it got last year wins and losses and in the

run and consistency it started with the high school recruitment i mean he's he should be his high school recruitment should have been all over the news every single day they kept his instagram on private they he had a twitter account that he didn't use for like eight months the head coach at is adored newman played with cooper and peyton knew the family well. They didn't let him do a lot of interviews. They didn't have a lot of public NIL talk. They have made, and by the way, you could criticize it. I think you could say that, you know, maybe you need to expose him a little bit more. I would say, if that's my kid, I'm doing the exact same way. I would do it the exact same way they've done it so far. They've done a good job of

because, I mean, we've gone over. His grandfather is Archie Manning, his uncles, Hall of Fame quarterbacks. You look at this, the exposure, the how, big of a story this kid is as a high school player coming out and trying to keep him grounded, trying to remind him that this is about becoming a better quarterback. It's not about branding. It's not about having your name all over the place. It's about being a better football player. And to me, they've handled it super well up to this point. But now, you know, now it's a different story. Now you are the starting quarterback for the Texas Longhorns. And it's going to be a different level exposure. And there's no reason to believe he won't be able to handle it. There's no reason

that he's mature enough to step into that limelight. We'll see. We'll see, but there's no reason to be sitting here and be like, no, he's not going to work out now. Everyone who's been, has had his hands on, on this situation with Arch, with this development of Arch has been someone who's trusted. And it's to get him to this very moment. Right. But now the bubble wrap comes off. and now it's all on him. And while the Sanders family race to the commercials and the social media and embrace that, it's one way to do it. They have not.

But now you can't protect him. And that's fine because like all of us, we had a certain point in our development, you know, fly away. Fly away bird, right? And but it's not just even about that. But that's a big part of it. It's also about, all right, now we got week in, weekend, week in. in, week out grind and leveling up.

It ain't going to be Colorado State, UTSA, ULM, ULM, and Mississippi State's bad defense. It's going to be Georgia, Florida, whoever's on the schedule. You know, it's going to be Bama, like whoever it is. So that's the second part. The third part is, how do you handle the weekly installs, right? and he had a tiny little um you know install package every week you know what i mean like right it's not the same thing man it's not the same thing so so weekly installs and adjusting to these

defenses that are great right what do you know who texas you know who texas opens up with who ohio state perfect here we go man the bubble wraps off and so and then and then how do we get A couple weeks later. It's, yeah, man, it's. So how do we speed, how do we speed up those reeds with the, and I saw against Georgia, like it was moving faster and he was relying more on his legs because you can't probably, you don't have the time you had against ULM and UTSA, okay? And faster defenses like that Georgia stuff, it stood out.

And how do you make NFL throws with anticipation consistently now? I saw flashes, but now it's consistently. And it's week in, week out against that faster. competition with more running through your brain, with media flocking to your locker room, because you can't be protected anymore, you know, all of that. All things I'm certain. He has been trained since childhood to be ready and has had the supporting cast unlike any other to handle this moment. And I believe he's going to.

And that's why I could, I could put a stamp on him and be like 2026, number one overall prospect. Come read my article. Come click on my top 100. Come click on my mock draft. but I'm not going to do it because I think there's a step three. Step three, if necessary, and I believe the Manning's view it as necessary, unless otherwise notified, is the 2026 season when you've got to rinse, refine, and repeat. And that takes your starts from 17, 18, 19 to 35, 36, somewhere, you know what I mean?

and you're now facing SEC coordinators who have seen you as a starter and now know your tendency. So now we're playing a chess game. Now they know what you do well. Now they know that you like to bail out to your left or you have a tendency to make this read on that look. Now they're going to throw more. So it's like last year was the 101 version. Now we're into chemistry 102 or 201.

Yeah. That makes me up to when I was in college, but go ahead. And so then then 2026 is going to become 301. And then I think the mannings after you, if you pass step three, then it's, well, you don't have a choice. But at that point, Arch Nosey's ready. Yeah. That's where I hear you, man. Oh, Lance.

I want to finish on this. It took me a while to figure out what the hat was because I look up on the screen and it's kind of in my eyes, I guess, I'm starting to have too much tape. Perones, Gorman. Italian. Already. Marissa's family. Yeah. There are some other sauces I won't mention name.

I'm the sauce guy in our family, right? And I met my wonderful fiancee, Marissa. And I'm still the sauce guy in this house, but I am not the sauce guy in the family. The Peron's. Yeah. That's like generations. Okay. Peron's sauces are phenomenal.

And Stevie. right mrs dad who's family amazing guy took over for his grandfather who they had they had restaurants all throughout greenville like they were the first major restaurants in greenville they had on the corner multiple restaurants and VIP clubs like they're they're they're they're baked into the history of greenville's the grandfather on the jar right that's a picture of the grandfather on the jar i don't know if we could pull up the picture right can you see it there Yep, there is. So if you go to Perones Gourmet Italian.com, you can,

and now they're doing shipping all around the country. They're growing. They're kind of like this, this McShea show. Like, you know, we got Greenville and family, but the mama's classic marinera. They just started, like, that's their, then they've got five different sauces. Signature sauce, yeah.

Oh, what do you think? Did you try it? I loved it. I mean, they sent me a nice care package with this hat and the sauce. They really. The story is Michael, Michael, who's Marissa's brother, is kind of now like next in line. Like grandfather passed down to Steve. Now, Michael's now working with him.

Now they're opening up a storefront. They're going to have food and all the hats are awesome. I'll have to wear mine soon. Yeah. So thank you, Michael. And they're for big heads, man. If you're like me and you got a big head, the outfits, man. I love that.

Unlike the salt. Go ahead. They set the hat. They set the sauce. A really nice note. I started making the sauce. And my wife came down, Iris came down. I was like, what smells so good?

And then you know, this is how you know it's good. Well, I shouldn't say that. If Iris likes it, you know what's good. But I will say that the five-year-old, my five-year-old daughter, Stella, had the sauce. It was like, this is awesome. I mean, she wanted more. Couldn't stop eating it. It's great.

There's some great recipes on the website. I didn't have time or skill to do all that stuff, but you should check it out. if you can. I just threw it on the pasta and it was it was delicious man. It was great. So we we've got a little anecdote here. We've got a Mercer's got her grandfather's cookbook, right? Like any good Italian chef or you know it like the best meatballs I've ever had. Like it's just classic. The like the best of the best. But we try to follow these these recipes. And there's like it's like throwing you know, throw it. You know, pinch of that.

Pinch of this, but beyond that, it's like, we need veal and, and, and, uh, this, this kind of meat, but there's never any amounts. Right. Because like when you, when you're, when you cook like that and you're brilliant at it, and it's passed down to Steve and now to Michael and Michael's helping take the business and they're going to, they're going to grow it. And it's honestly, like, they're my family now. And to see like Michael leave his, his profession and doing like the corporate and all that stuff.

And now, like, keeping it in the, it's so cool, right? Yeah. And they're just like wonderful, wonderful people who have brought me into their family and have been nothing but supportive and loving the whole time. But it's cool to see them now, like working together. Like, it's a dream, right? Father and son taking over the grandfather's business and empire they had in Greenville, South Carolina.

And now they're taking it national, right? I love it. Not only shit, but so it's just really cool to see that. And I'm psyched that you got the package. And I'm glad that now it's in the M-M-CH family. Oh, we'll be getting to more. Here in the McShea family. And, yeah, if you can support them, please do.

I'd tell Steve, I told Steve, Steve, get off my grill or you go cook it once. I don't mess around with food and sauces, but I do have to take a back seat to the Perone family when it comes to sauces. It's good, man. And it's really cool to see that now that you got a taste of it. And, again, it's Peron. Perones, P-R-O-N-E-S, Gourmet Italian. Dot com is the website. So go and if you're a supporter of the show, let's support the Perones.

Like, they're starting to take it to another level, just like we're trying to grow this to another level. So let's all get involved. Help out, jump on, get, order some sauces. Maybe they'll throw my, hey, Michael, I'm going to get you in trouble already, buddy. Michael, we need a code. Yeah, let's get, we'll get a code. We'll get a code. And if you order off of the McShea's show,

and off of the billboard that is Mench. If you order off of the billboard that is Mench, I'm not sure I feel about Michael owes you a hat. All right. I promise that this wasn't going to take an hour. It's an hour and three minutes by my clock. It was arch, man. It was arch.

I love it. Summer scouting series has kicked off. Awesome way to start it. I think we've explained the whole thing. We'll be back on Thursday. If you want to watch again, if you want to check out the full scouting, it's not even scouting. It's like my notes, and it's kind of fun to read through.

It's kind of crazy. It's good, man. But it's an explanation. I appreciate that, Mesh. But it's the McShay report. Just Google it and subscribe if you're not already subscribed. You can subscribe for free. If you want to get the whole thing, you get to throw it in a little scratch for it.

But we appreciate all the support. We love you, Perones. And I love you, Mench, for being part of the family and doing the right thing. So this is awesome. And we'll be back on Thursday. See it. Must be 21 plus and present in. select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C.

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