The McShay Show - The Case for South Carolina, Alabama’s Lifeline, and Other CFP Rankings Reactions

Episode Date: December 4, 2024

Todd and Steve open with their instant reactions to the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They discuss why Alabama ranks higher than Miami and South Carolina, where the pivot points in the rankings are, and what makes the ACC Championship the most important conference title game. To wrap the show, the guys look at the projected playoff bracket and break down some of their favorite matchups. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Todd McShay Guest: Steve Muench Producers: Tucker Tashjian, Mark Panik, Conor Nevins, and Daniel Comer Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Wow. The college football playoff rankings are in. Miami is out. Old Miss is out. South Carolina is out. That to me is the jumping off point here, Munch. I mean, this is wild. And I let's start with this. Ward Manuel, who's the chair of the college football playoff committee, came out and said that essentially, and it was very confusing between he and Reese Davis at first. And I'm glad that Reese made two follow-up questions to confirm what he was saying. But essentially, the cluster won't change. The cluster being Alabama at 11, Miami at 12, Ole Miss at 13, and South Carolina at 14. And Ward Manuel went on to say, teams in conference title games not playing, cannot jump any teams not playing.

So essentially, if SMU beats Clemson, Alabama gets the last at large bid over Miami. And it also means that Miami, as you're looking at the college football playoff rankings here, we'll get to the whole list in a second. But the thing that jumped out the most is that cluster, right? Talking about Alabama at 11, Miami at 12, and then beyond that, which we don't have here on the, well, we do it down the bottom, the top two out 13 Ole Miss, 14 South Carolina.

That won't change based off of any result, anything that happens in the conference. championship games. So when you ask the question, why are we doing a instant reaction show, a college football playoff rankings reaction show tonight and not waiting until next week for the final ones? That's the reason, MENCH, because this is the most important rankings reveal that we've had so far. Okay. Right. This sets the table. Ultimately, the college football playoff, college football championship games coming up to conference championship games, will decide who's in the ACC, in the Big 12. It will, it could affect the rankings to a certain degree. It could obviously Boise State versus UNLV, the Mountain West championship. We know

which teams will be in the winner of that game. Simple. The only thing that would, that will change based off of what Ward Manuel said, currently, if SMU ranked number eight beats Clemson ranked 17, then Alabama is in as the 11 seed. The big 12 winner between 15 Arizona State and 16 Iowa State is in as the 12 seat, right? Right. And that means Boise State if it wins the Mountain West Championship sitting at that number 10 ranking will wind up actually being the fourth seed, which is also intriguing, right? Because the big 12 champion is, it's the four highest ranked conference champions. So here you look at the first round matchups. You've got Arizona State

versus Penn State. That's a 12 versus 5. If this were to be the bracket, Arizona State, the highest ranked and favorite in that game would be the 12 seed. They come in. They'll play Penn State. 9 versus 8 would be Tennessee versus Ohio State. 11 versus 6 would be Alabama versus Notre Dame. And then finally, Indiana is a 10 seed would play Georgia, the 7th seed. What are your thoughts, man? What jumps out at you first? Sorry, it took a while there, but there was a lot to unpack.

Yeah, definitely. If I'm South Carolina, I'm furious. And I think there's a strong argument for taking Alabama over South Carolina, or at least there is an argument. But if I'm South Carolina, I'm furious. And I'm looking at that and saying head-to-head, regardless of when you play, regardless how close it is. I mean, they lost to Alabama.

By two at Alabama, it doesn't matter where you play. Head-to-head is more important than how you finish your season and more importantly to me, whether or not you have a bad loss. Alabama lost to Oklahoma by 21 a couple weeks ago. They lost to Vanderbilt this year. Ole Miss, who's ranked ahead of them too, which I don't understand. I know they had some big wins, but they've also had some tough losses, too, Florida and Kentucky. So, and you look at the South Carolina, you get into the devils and the details, right?

You look at that loss to LSU and their quarterback doesn't play the second half and they lose a tough one. There's some penalties in that game. And again, it's earlier in the year. If we're trying to get the guys, the teams that are, and I don't want to get into the hottest teams, but if we have similar resumes and you're looking at these teams and you're saying to yourself, we don't have those bad losses. We've played really well down the stretch. I think South Carolina is the team with the biggest beef right now of not being it.

Yeah, I mean, you look there at the going off a strength of schedule, right? Strength of schedule, okay, Alabama's 10 or sorry, strength of record. Alabama is 10. South Carolina is 11. Strength of schedule, South Carolina is 15. Alabama is 16. So it's almost a wash between those. too. Here, here's what, let's first address what Ward manual said on why Alabama over Miami,

okay, which I think is interesting because let's face it, let's just call it what it is, whether it's brand or not, whether it's in or not, what they leaned on and maybe what they decided upon, but what they leaned on and what their, their easy out is. And everyone knew, all the talk the last couple days was, if it's Alabama, they will absolutely, lean on head to head. Okay. And they very clearly did and they protected themselves to, if you will, by putting old missed ahead of South Carolina. And yeah, I get it. There was a significant difference in that game in terms of the result. So if they were going to go with that, they had to lean into it. Okay. But when Ward was answering why Alabama over Miami,

he said it really came down to Alabama was three and one versus current top 25 teams. Miami was 0 and 1. Alabama was 6 in 1 versus 500 teams. Teams that were over 500. Miami was 4 and 2. So yeah, I get it. I don't have a problem at all with Alabama over Miami. I already said.

No, no problem whatsoever. In our rankings reveal show the other night, or sorry, in our Saturday night, reaction show to all the games, I said, I just don't know how in good conscious, the committee can put that Miami defense in the college football playoff. Well, they've ruled. It's been decided that defense does not deserve and will not be in the college football playoff as much as both you and I and every talent evaluator out there wants to see Cam Ward and some of those other prospects on the offensive side for Miami play against better competition. a college football playoff game or multiple.

Here's what I tweeted out the other day, though, because I sat down and I thought about it. I thought it would truly come down to South Carolina versus Alabama for that spot that Alabama has secured, the number 11 spot, which gets them in if SMU takes care of business against Clemson. I said, working in Bama's favor, they do have a two-point head-to-head win over the Gamecocks. They also, as I just mentioned, have a slight edge in the strength of record, but in South Carolina's favor, they only lost to Bama by two points at Tuscaloosa, right? And his Fanduil will tell you, typically you give three points to teams who, for the home

field advantage for whatever that's worth, okay? They also were three touchdown dog in that game, and it was eight weeks ago. Correct. Then they have the slight edge and strength of schedule, as we also just mentioned. Plus, no ugly losses for South Carolina. All of their losses, if you look at it, were against respectable teams. LSU being the worst of it when it's all said and done. Excuse me.

But we'll get to that game in a second. But against LSU and Alabama, it was by a combined five points. They didn't have the ugly losses like Alabama. Alabama had. They lost to Vandy. You know, they lost to Vandy. And more, much more importantly and more recently, they got blown out by Oklahoma. Blown out, 21 points. The other thing is, and I was texting with Sean McDonough today, actually, earlier, I think this morning, we were going back and forth on just different thoughts. He wasn't pushing for one way or the other. I'm not here to get Sean, he truly wasn't.

We were just kind of going through all the factors. And I said, and I said in the tweet that, you know, quarterback sellers got injured in that game and also the remember the poor officiating call it what it is what it is but but that should not have been an ls u win okay uh but he he made the point they were hammering lsu 17 to nothing when lenora sellers got injured it wasn't just like it was a tight game and they lost them and they were with them without they were up 17 nothing when sellers got injured if he doesn't get hurt they beat ls u and we don't We're not even having a conversation. They're in the top 10.

Two losses. They're in the top 10. He's talking about Alabama versus Miami and the top 25 teams. They've beaten three top 25 teams in the last five weeks, South Carolina has. They dismantled A&M. They beat Missouri and they beat Clemson. But I want to go back to that for a second. And can we pull up, I know, and we'll touch on this a couple of times.

Can we pull up the graphic about what the committee is looking at? And I want to remind everyone last year of FSU. So here's the ranking criteria. And I'm not going to read every word, but championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, which obviously played a major factor in this, comparative outcomes of common opponents.

And then here's the other thing. And look no further than FSU last year. Okay. Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players, right? It says, or coaches and it goes on to other things. Well, what about the unavailability of Lenora sellers in that one game that would have made them a two-lost team had he played the rest of the game when they were up 17 nothing exactly so throw out the officiating throw out the

officiating throw out the fact that they're hot throw out that they didn't have a blowout lost Oklahoma if that is part of it's literally in the criteria that is that is handed out to every committee member and they're saying that the players who are available are the unavailability of players. Lenora Sellers didn't play the rest of that game. They were up 17 nothing. I just, I don't. I mean, I get it.

I know the why. And I see the reason that they leaned on with the head to head. But you can't tell me this team that's won six straight. And two of their last three outings were wins over ranked opponents. I just, it's on it. You know, I don't know. And I don't know Shane Beamer better than I know Caitlin DeBoer or any of these other. This isn't a personal thing, I promise.

No. And I always admit if I know someone better, like I'm always unbiased on everything. But I'll mention it if, you know, just to be transparent. But Shane's done a hell of a job. They turn this thing around. They battle through those three losses and they bounce back. They've got one of the hottest best quarterbacks in the country. And they've got a damn good defense.

And I'm going to watch, and I know it's because of the, it's because of how this whole thing works with the conference. But I'm going to watch SMU and Arizona State and Boise State in Indiana playing the college football playoff. And I'm not going to watch one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the country who's taking over games, 350 plus yards. You called him Superman, Mench, against Missouri. Yeah, watch the end of the Missouri game and tell me that you don't want that kid in the

playoff. I don't know why Miami's even in the conversation either. I don't understand why, again, it's not overly important, I guess. It came down to Alabama versus the other three teams, but I don't understand why Miami's in the conversation, if you honestly. You don't lose the Syracuse and Georgia Tech. You don't lose two of your last three games, get knocked out of the ACC championship game,

and somehow are still in the mix with that defense. Explain it to me. I don't get it. And some of it's maybe they're so rigid in what their rankings were, or two weeks ago or three weeks ago or four weeks ago. And they don't want to drop these teams too much. But Miami should be, sorry, Miami's not in the conversation as far as I'm concerned. I don't think this.

This really is either, but. I think this committee, I mean, look at it, right? I think this committee is obsessed with wins and losses. Right. And I don't think it's its job. I don't think that that's the criteria. I don't think that that, obviously it factors in. But when you've got Indiana playing that schedule at 11 and 1,

they were obsessed with the way. I mean, Miami was 10 and 2. So, but look at the schedule. Right. So you're telling me Miami plays Ole Miss's schedule or South Carolina schedule. Right. You're telling me. You don't know that, Todd.

But yeah, you know what? We have a pretty good idea. We have a pretty good idea that if Ole Miss or South Carolina played that Indiana schedule, they'd have a, a one-loss team, maybe, maybe a one-loss team, and they'd have a better loss to Ohio State. I'm sorry, I just have a hard time believing that's not true. Boise State, 11-1 would be, you're saying Boise State's a better team than Alabama, because they get 11 wins, right? Right.

What's the strength of schedule? I don't know, can we pull that up? The strength of schedule for Indiana and for Boise State. 65 for Indiana. 65. 86 for Boise State. Yeah. 16 for Alabama.

15 for South Carolina. Do you hear the numbers difference there? I get it. Boise State's 11 and 1. But at some point, the committee's got to, like, and the strength of record, typically, I believe the strength of record, all these numbers and analytics and all the data points and all this other shit. The strength of records, the one that I actually believe is, is, is, is,

reasonable because it factors in, yes, what your record was, but the opponents you played and how you played those opponents, okay? And let's throw that graphic back up one more time. So when we're talking strength of record, we've got South Carolina with the 11th strength of record. We've got Alabama with the 10th strength of record. But you've got Boise State with 13th strength of record. That factors everything in.

Old Miss with the 18th strength of record. Indiana, I don't know how their strength of record is 8. I'm looking at SMU. How many wins versus top 25 teams? None. How many wins for Indiana? Top 25, none. How many wins for Miami?

Top 25, none. Yet they're all ahead of South Carolina and even Ole Miss. Because of that third loss. Because of that third loss. And again, that third loss for South Carolina was with Lenora Sellers out injured when they were up 17-0. This wouldn't be a conversation. It wouldn't be a conference. I'm telling you,

they would be, South Carolina would be at eight. They would be at eight if they were 10 and 2. Here's our rankings. And I know most people are, the majority of our, our viewers and audience are, are listening on podcasts and we appreciate all of you.

I'm sorry. Welcome into the McShay show, by the way. Good to happen. Welcome in. I didn't even say hello, basically. But, and we appreciate everyone here. And please subscribe.

and let a friend know and like and all the things that will help us continue this, the little engine that could. But we do have our rankings for whatever it's worth, and it's not worth anything at this point. But at the top, I've got Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame. Mention's got the same teams, just Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Notre Dame. Then it's kind of another cluster of Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee. And Mention's got the same Penn State, Tennessee, Ohio.

of the state. So it's the same through the top seven, I believe. Then we both had, and we didn't, we didn't talk to each other. We both had South Carolina, eight, Alabama, nine, all miss 10. You know why? Because they're better football teams. Honest to God, we didn't discuss it. It's not group think. Yeah, we both come from an NFL draft angle to a certain degree, but also factoring in wins. and losses when they won, how they won, how hot the team is down the stretch. The hottest team arguably in the country right now.

I would say is South Carolina outside of maybe Oregon. And we had them all ahead of SMU, Indiana, Boise State, Miami, and all the other teams. So, I mean, where do we go from here? Well, I mean, let's go through the ranking. So again, we're going to reset as if it's the top of the hour. We appreciate everyone joining live tonight. It's 8.24 p.m. Eastern.

We're just kind of, you know, the ranking show was, did you notice how squeeze that ranking show is? Yeah. ESPN, usually an hour. I mean, they were racing through that. That needs to be an hour long show, especially the most important one of the year, but they had to kick through a basketball game. But so let's slow things down now. Now that we'll gain some composure, reset things.

Let's look at the top of the rankings. Oregon at one, Texas at two, okay? These are the actual college football playoff rankings. Penn State at three. We can get into that in a minute. But I guess understandable, but you and I both, I believe, had Georgia up there. Notre Dame four, then Georgia five. Ohio State only falls to number six, which I think was fair.

And I get here's, let's just start there. And Tennessee at seven. So it's still the same cluster, the top seven teams as your rankings, my rankings, and the only ones that matter of the college football playoff rankings by the committee. But for whatever it's worth, I get the 10 and 2. And this is another example. Like, look, it's 12 and 0 Oregon, then 11 and 1, 11 and 1, 11 and 1, the next three. And then a bunch of 10 and 2s.

And then they get into teams that didn't play the schedule and then go back to 11 and 1. So when I look at this, like I get that Ohio State has two losses, and I get the most recent one was abysmal. But I also have an understanding that it's a team that Ohio State just simply, like they can't beat at this point. But I don't think that's representative of what Ohio State is as a football team heading into the college football playoff. Now, is there going to be some shrapnel?

Is that going to, is that going to go and going to have some lingering, effects. We'll see, but time heals all wounds. There's plenty of time. They don't play in a college football, they don't play in a conference championship game. They've got time. And it's either going to infect what just happened. It's either going to infect the locker room and get in the minds of these 18 to 22 year olds, generally speaking, or it's going to galvanize this Ohio State team. But at the end of the day, there's plenty of time between now and that first college football playoff game for them to be ready and to play at the level that we expect. But my point in this is, and it doesn't truly matter because the conference champion is going to wind up, you know, having that number

one spot likely, or maybe number two if it's Penn State. But how can we say, if we're going to go head to head, right, and put Alabama ahead of Ole Miss and Ole Miss ahead of South Carolina there. And I get it, they all have nine and three records. But we saw Ohio State, Penn State, and quite frankly, it was a more lopsided game than the final score would indicate. I guess I'm not surprised at all, but to me, like, Ohio State's the better football team. And we saw it on the field. Right. Are we checking box scores?

Are we actually looking at these performances? And I don't mean to be rude, but like, are we checking the box scores? Are we looking at how that game unfolded? because we all know that Will Howard fumbling at the goal line. I mean, there was a couple of plays in that game where, I mean, Ohio State could easily have blown the doors off of Penn State. Can I say one thing, though, that I don't understand? And it's, you know, just what we're on Ohio State. How are they ranked ahead of Tennessee?

Tell me what's a worst loss to Arkansas earlier in the year or to Michigan last week. I think Ohio State losing to Michigan is a far worse loss than Tennessee losing to Arkansas because I think it matters when it happens. I think that that was an early blip for Tennessee. But all sudden, they lose to a Michigan team that they had no business losing to at home. And your wins, you look at their wins and it's a Penn State team that we still have a lot of questions about. And it's an Indiana team that we quite frankly feel has had an incredible year. And congratulations to them. But maybe it doesn't belong where they are in the rankings right now,

considering their strength of schedule and what we've seen on tape and all of those things combined. So how is Tennessee behind Ohio State? And maybe it doesn't matter in terms of who's getting in, but it will matter in terms of seating. Yeah, and quite honestly, Georgia, let's just, I mean, Georgia's strength of schedule, now that I'm looking at this graphic, I love this graphic, by the way. The things that are important to me,

three of the top things, strength of schedule, strength of record, as I already told you, a big believer in that, helping to guide, not as the, not as the, you know, the albeit, but helping to guide. Excuse me. But if we're looking and having the conversation of what the goal is and the goal is to put the best teams in the tournament, but also to rank the best teams accordingly, George has got the number three strength of schedule in the country. Yeah.

Number two strength of record, meaning it factored in like, you know, who they played, how they played them throughout the year. Oregon's strength of schedule is 60. They're undefeated. So leave them out of the argument. But Texas is 32. Don't have a win over a top 25 team. Georgia has wins over number two, Texas. I thought head-to-head was critical.

To me, if we're ranking the best teams in the country and head-to-head's a big factor in this thing, as we showed that with the South Carolina, Ole Miss, Alabama cluster, Georgia beat Texas and they beat them badly. I think 30 to 15 was the final in that game. They'd be. They just mantle.

All three of those wins were by two scores or more. I mean, they handled Clemson by 31. They beat Georgia by 15 and they beat Tennessee by 14. So they're the number two strength of schedule in the entire country. It wasn't like those were close games, yeah. Or number three in the entire country, number two strike the record, I think it was. And so why isn't Georgia sitting at two, even though it's one loss?

I mean, we'll find out. It doesn't matter. But I'm just, I'm trying to get inside the mindset of these teams, I mean, of the committee and what they're deciding. You know, I just think that we, and listen, I know there's a lot of people out there who don't like this, but the conference winners, I think there's got to be something. There's not enough spots to be giving away. a spot to Boise State, you know, no offense or to the big 12 team this year.

I think, you know, it's nice to have these smaller schools or these smaller programs, the, you know, the underdogs get in and see what they can do. But, you know, the kids from South Carolina want to play for a championship too. And I know people are like, oh, the SEC, you guys love the SEC. I don't love the SEC. It's just a better football. It's a better football. It's a better football.

It's a better football. They have better teams. They have better athletes. It's top to bottom. Find me an NFL scout. Find me an NFL scout. And I value NFL scouts opinions over, certainly over every single member of that college football committee with all of due respect.

Right. And find me an NFL scout that would say in most years. I mean, there have been years of the Big Ten has been closer. There's been years of the ACC's been closer. Find me as an NFL scout who literally is on the trail evaluating these teams. team, you know, these, these players and evaluating talent. And I get it. There are some freshmen that aren't eligible and some sophomores who aren't eligible,

but they're also keeping a look on those guys. I've never talked to an NFL scout who is literally spending four months on the road and has more stories and backgrounds and has been to practices and watch every tape there is to watch and can recite plays from like the second week of the season, play 48, like their catalog and their memory and all. I've never talked to anyone in the NFL that's a talent evaluator who's ever said anything but the SEC is the most talented. And why is that important? Because when you're playing that talent and yes, the SEC might not be as great at the top this year maybe as it has been in some other years.

But when you're playing that level of talent week in and week out, there's going to be some carnage. And it wears on you. And like when you're done playing Georgia, you've got to go play Texas. When you're done playing Texas, you got to go play old miss. When you're done playing old miss, you've got to go play a shitty Florida team that all of a sudden might be one of the 10 best teams in the country right now. You know what I mean? So like it's the week in week out thing that is different in the SEC than it is everywhere else. It's not just like not every game is played in a vacuum.

You know, you don't just get one shot. Right. It's the over, you know, 12 weeks, 13 weeks. It's the body of work. It's the body of work. And not all losses and are created equal. And I'm sorry. Like, Indiana's had a heck of a year, man.

Congratulations. That's great. But somehow they are more deserving of South Carolina because they had a schedule that was, I mean, sorry, way easier. Yeah, the only team in the, no wins against top 25, 65, 65th, 65th, ranked strength of schedule. And they could have lost the, I mean, the Ohio State, I don't even remember what the final was.

It was ugly. It was lopsided. One team did not belong on the field that day. Outside of the first drive and they hung around, I thought towards the end of the first quarter, I was like, we might have a fight on our hands. But the final three quarters, it was just, it was so lopsided. Um, so, but that's what we have.

It's what we have. We have now, yeah. And it's better than what we had. You know, it's like, you know, hey, you guys got this nice gift and this and I, and I love the new format. It's better than the four teams. Trust me. Throw that back up.

I want to look at that. I'm glad you just mentioned that. It is better than what we have. And I'm right. But I just. So that would be. So essentially it would be interesting. I'm just going back if it was last year, right?

and we're just picking four. It would be a winner of Oregon. Well, Georgia, but George is playing in the conference championship. So the winner of the SEC is in, right? The winner of the Big Ten is in, Texas versus, I mean, Oregon versus Penn State, right? Yep. So that would be too, but Notre Dame would be in. And then what would be fascinating is could Georgia,

lose that SEC championship game close and still get in. You know? Or Oregon or Oregon loses close to Penn State and still gets it. But Ohio State would be out. Obviously Tennessee would be out and everyone below them would be out. So yeah, it's better. I mean, there's no question. It was always going to be better.

We get 12 teams. It was always going to be better. But I'll tell you one thing. If we start just looking at it and I'm glad we just pulled up the bracket projection, get rid of the top four conference champions claiming the top four seats it's yeah that has to change i get it like on on paper like months ago when this was all decided it sounded like let's reward those conferences get out of here man get out of here i agree it's crazy or he should be the one getting a buy Texas should be the two seed Penn state should be the

three seed Notre Dame should be the four seed Notre Dame should be the four four seed if the if the seating was done today and obviously conference championship games can can adjust that but the top four teams in the rankings should be the top four seeds so boise stage is getting a buy SMU's getting a buy and Penn state which is sitting at number three that the committee loves fan duel loves we'll get to them later fan duel We're in a fight right now. I love Van Duel. But everyone loves Penn State.

The McShay Show is brought to you by Fan Duel. Keep your college football season going with a win on Fanduel. Because right now, new customers can kick off the season with $150 bucks in bonus bets. Just place any $5 bet, and you'll get $150 bucks in bonus bets if you win. Use your bets on spreads, live bets, overs, overs, unders, and so much more. Just visit Fanduil.com slash McShay to download America's number one sportsbook. Must be 21 or older and present in select states or 18 and older and present in D.C. First online real money wager only.

$5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandul.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-Hash-H Help.com. Sorry, I'm on a heater tonight. No. Would you agree with that, first of all?

Second of all, okay. Second of all, anything else you would change? It's, listen, it's a, it's a power to conference football, college football landscape at this point. Sorry, it is. There's just, it's the, it is the SEC, and then it's the big 10. And then it's, it's everyone else. So what do you do about that? I don't know. You could be creative and say that the ACC champion, regular season, champion has to play the big 12 champion for a spot and that way you're not taking up two spots with those teams maybe you say that if you're a you know to get that that uh the group of five team in you have to be in a certain ranking you have to be in the top 10 you have to be in the whatever to get in uh i just i think you've got to stop penalizing team like south carolina is getting hurt for the schedule they played i'm sorry i mean i don't and so if that's a problem for you or if that's a problem for me the let's find

ways to fix that. Let's find ways to get a South Carolina team like this South Carolina team into the playoffs. Is it going to 14 teams? I don't know. I don't know. I got the feeling I think it was 14. This year would be pretty sweet. Yeah, it would be, right?

But South Carolina still wouldn't be in. I know. That's I mean, that's off right now. I mean, you think I'm hot right now. Can you imagine? Right. Yeah. And then, like, so let's get into this a little bit, too. SMU loses to Clemson and a Clemson team who everyone who's ever watched a show knows how I feel about is in. And now do you take SMU over Alabama?

Yeah. My understanding from what Ward Manuel was saying, the chair of the college football playoff committee, is that things are basically kind of set, okay? Right. Now, now, he didn't say this specifically, but I, and I don't want to put words in his mouth. I kind of got the sense that like this is how they view teams, right, going right? And that the college football playoff is going to allow,

are the conference championship games are going to allow, obviously we're going to get a winner of the Mountain West. We're going to get a winner of the ACC, which, by the way, is easily the most important game of the conference championship games. And we'll be coming to you live again Saturday night. That's going to be a fun one. We'll have all the answers then. We'll break down all of those games.

We'll start to look forward to what the matchups could be. That's going to be an awesome show. Right after the, I think, is the ACC championship the latest game? Is that the primetime game? I'll check right now. All right. So, but whatever the prime time game is, we'll be there Saturday night. But the ACC.

It will be the ACC and the, that's awesome. Big 10 in the ACC game are at the same time, both eight o'clock games. So right when those games are over, right around 11.30 p.m. Eastern time. We'll be live on YouTube. Please come join us. That'll be a fun show. Kind of wrap up the season, if you will, before we get ready for the college football, you know, playoff games. But the ACC game is the most important because that's going to decide.

I can see Clemson beating us. M-U, man. So could I? Right? Yeah. And then Alabama's out. Well, here's what I don't understand. So if Clemson, oh, man, if Clemson hangs, you know, it's 42 to 14. How do you keep S&U in there? glad you brought me back. That was my point. I get the strong sense that if in a close game like that, they're not going to penalize, if it's a close game, they're not going to penalize them for having you for having to play another game. But if they get, and listen, what was SMU's strength of schedule?

I think if they get undressed by a quality opponent, I think at that point it would change the committee's opinion. And you'd look at them and say, all right, well, they are a two-loss team, even though it's with one more game in there. And SMU 75th ranked strength of schedule versus Bama with the 16th ranked strength of schedule. So that's a huge difference, right?

Right. Now, that strength of schedule will improve because they're playing Clemson, which is their only ranked team. They've not beaten a team ranked in the top 25. And their loss is to BYU. If Clemson puts it on SMU, I could see SMU falling out. I could see the window is open for that. But I truly believe because they're ranked so high at number eight, I think the committee kind of planted its flag in SMU here. You know, if they didn't believe in SMU, they could have easy, because look at that cluster they're in. SMU 8, Indiana 9, Boise State 10, all 11 and 1 teams, all with shitty strengths of schedule.

Boise State's 86, Indiana 65, SMU 75. And the strength of schedule for Indiana is better, 10 spots better at 65 than SMU 75. So it would have been easy for the committee to put Indiana at eight, but they didn't. They put SMU at eight. So my point in all of this, and I think you read the tea leaves here, SMU would have to get undressed in order to not be in the college football playoff. Yeah. And SMU is favored by Fandu just chimed in. SMU's favor by two and a half over Clemson the ACC championship game.

I think that's a reasonable number. I think that's fair. Yeah. Let me ask you this. So we can't have any movement between 11 and 14 because now my brain is, now it's, you know, spinning. Yeah. If Georgia gets blown out by Texas and Clemson blows out SMU, South Carolina is sitting there saying, we got a win over that Clemson team that just smoked your number eight team in the country.

and Alabama and Ole Miss, their wins over Georgia, maybe don't look so good after they had an eight overtime went over Georgia Tech and had two other losses on the year. And, you know, maybe they weren't as good as we thought. So does that affect the way they look at those wins and losses, or it's just it's in the barn, it's over. My understanding is it's in the barn. It's over.

I mean, Ward, that's why I started this entire show. Ward Manual came out and flat out said it. Can you imagine if Clemson gets in in South Carolina sitting there, like yeah yeah what do we got to do clemson's in we just beat them yeah in in death valley right clemson's in yeah take the other team not us not us we just beat them last week clemsonsons yeah right oh i'm ghouly this is wild all right i mean let's look at the matchups for a minute yeah i don't hate no Alabama Notre Dame by the way no i like that it's it's funny it's all it's funny how angry how angry we are about certain things

and then you look at the matchups and you're like all right interesting yeah Tennessee ohio's at ohio state that one's a good one that's a great matchup man yeah that's a great match up Tennessee going up to the cold weather it's not that it's not like it's coming from florida but going from the cold you know the SEC up to Columbus i mean it's just probably going to be snowing, you know what I mean? It's just going to be a different environment. Yeah. That'll be an awesome game.

I'd like to see, you know what I'd love to see in that game? Quin Sean Judkins, Trayvionn Henderson versus that defensive front, right? Yeah. Right. Donovan Jackson against James Pierce. Yeah, you talk about NFL matchups. Let's do some NFL matchups here. Yeah, a guard, probably a second round, day two guard, who's kicked out to left tackle,

going up against a speedster and Pierce. And they're like 14 deep on that defensive line. Pierce's sack numbers haven't been great. People keep dropping him and all that. I get it. He's probably going to be 250 at the combine, 245, 250. But he's explosive. And his pressure percentage, which matters,

especially when you're playing on that deep of defensive line, you're not out in the field as much as a lot of these other guys. That matters. So I would love to see that matchup. But I also would like to see how he holds up versus the run. Because you know that Ohio State team, we saw like hell or high water. We're running the football, even if it's against the best defensive tackle tandem in the nation. And we got a patchwork offensive line.

We're still going to run the football. Yeah, I would love to see that matchup. Penn State, Arizona State. I kind of want to see that matchup because I don't think Penn State's as great as everyone thinks. I'm not saying Arizona State would beat Penn State, but I think Arizona State might make that tricky. By the way, Penn State getting the five seed, playing Boise State in the quarterfinals is so on brand for them.

You know, they'll win those two games, getting to the semifinals, then we'll really see how good we are. Penn State doesn't lose the teams they should be. That's one thing I can. You can count on that or James Franklin team. And if we've got to give credit where it's due. He recruits well, not at the elite, but just a notch below. And he wins almost, I mean, damn near every game that they should win, they win.

Right. By the way, Georgia, Indiana. I don't know if our fan dual guys are watching live right now. I'd love to know that spread. Yeah. That would have to be, well, take a guess. Take a guess. Ten and a half.

10 and a half? Yep. You're kinder than me. I'm going to go 13. Wouldn't surprise me. I'm going to go 13. Would not surprise me. That would be the worst game,

worse matchup, even though it's a 10 versus 7, that would be the worst matchup. Right. Then Alabama, Notre Dame. Yeah, man.

That would help me, that would help answer a lot of questions. I don't know if Notre Dame can rush the passer at an elite level. I think their secondary is not quite as good. We talked about this Louisville and USC two teams that could throw the football. that would be an interesting matchup.

But I do think their run defense is exceptional. I think their offensive line has played really well. I think their run game is as good as any team maybe in the country, like right up there with the best. But I don't think they have the weapons on the outside offensively to really threaten Alabama. And I think that you've got to have weapons on the outside to, you don't have to. but typically teams that have had weapons on the outside stress Alabama's defense more. Yeah, I want to see Alabama quarterback Jalen Milro versus Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts.

Watts has got five picks this year, man. He's a thief. That would be a great matchup. And then to watch the Notre Dame running game with Leonard and Love versus those Alabama linebackers, man, you know, both sides of the ball are going to have great matches in that game. Yeah, I'm just looking at this. you'd rather be in the, I'll call it the north, at the top of this bracket.

Yes. You know what I mean? Yeah. I mean, you look at that now. You got to go through Alabama, Georgia, and Texas. Right. And Notre Dame. And Notre Dame is a good team.

Yeah. Versus Oregon, Oregon's toughest game, quite honestly, would be its first game after the buy against the winner of Tennessee, Ohio State. Yeah. They're a rematch against Ohio State or they're playing a dangerous Tennessee team. And then Boise State is going to get knocked off in the first game because of the terrible seating situation that we have in the first year of this 12th team college football playoff. But it would be Penn State and then it will be Penn's probably, I mean, a good chance.

It could be a rematch of the Big Ten championship. It could be two rematches in that bracket if this is how it plays out. It could be Ohio State versus Oregon, rematch of earlier. in the year, that great game, tough finish for Will Howard. Could be a rematch of that. And then the semifinals could be a rematch of Oregon versus Penn State. It's actually very, it's likely that that would be the scenario. Yeah.

We got some Todd's odds. Let's circle back real quickly to South Carolina. Fanduel likes to make fun of me, the hypothetical odds I'm always asking for. I've earned a casino noise. I love it. This surprised me. I mean, I'm pounding the table for South Carolina. right? And I thought my folks at Fanduil would back me here.

They don't have the same love with the, they don't. Here are the odds. And I specifically want to know South Carolina versus some of these other teams versus Alabama, Bama minus four, understandable, right? Right. I think South Carolina's a better team. I think they deserve to be in, all those things, but I can, I can live with that. Penn State minus six and a half. Fandual loves Penn State.

They do. Six and a half seems rich for me. I'd be on South Carolina all day. Here's what really pissed me off, Mitch. Two games really, really pissed me off. And I'll go through their major favorites, eight and a half against Boise State, favorite against Arizona State five and a half.

What pissed me off was Indiana, South Carolina pick an SMU South Carolina pick. I don't get it. Yeah, maybe we're seeing something wrong. I don't know. I don't get it. Yeah, I don't either.

What's the Penn State love about, too, by the way? Before we came on, Dan was like, what are we missing? And I was like, I don't know, man. I mean, they're talented. They have talent, but they've always had talent. I just haven't seen the difference in this team versus other teams. Yeah, the problem is, you're right. We just looked at the bracket.

They're going to win their first game against Arizona State, if that's how it plays out, right? They went against Arizona State. Then they go play Boise State. To be quite honest, the five seed is almost better than the four seed or the three. In this layout, yeah. This layout. It truly is because you get to keep the momentum rolling. You don't have to sit out for like three weeks or whatever it is.

you're back in business you get a kind of a i don't want to call a warm up game a game you should win at home white out Arizona state take care of business all right wrap it up next week let's go now we've got boise state another team we should win we should beat and then you find then the college football play off really starts for james franklin and the boys right right right where sm u has to play the winner of alabama notre dame in their first game and then gets probably Texas or Georgia. Good luck. Yeah. Anyway, this is fun. I'm glad we did this. We discussed this with with Dan and Connor and Tucker and we came to the conclusion that this was the right way to do. We're going to do a show earlier in the day, but it just didn't make sense. We had to,

we had to react to this. Appreciate everyone coming on live. Appreciate everyone downloading and listening and subscribing. We really, you know, don't, we're not here to beg, but, but appreciate your support, truly do. I'm excited about Thursday, too. Our guy Pollock is coming back. David Pollack. Can't wait. Yeah. It feels like the right time.

We had Clemson now. We had them on the very first show, right? We had him in the very first show. You guys were beating on Clemson. I forget you were beating on Miami a little bit there. Right. Georgia, it feels like they played three seasons since then. He's up Georgia.

You know, he's a Georgia alum, obviously one of the great players that come out of the Georgia program that's had an unbelievable list of players. So I'm just curious to get his take on all things college football. You know one thing about David, he's not shy. No. I haven't seen. I know he's had a show tonight on his podcast, but I haven't seen what his opinions are. But I'm sure he's going to come in red hot on Thursday. So please join our show on Thursday.

Check it out. It's going to be going to be a lot of fun. And again, we'll be back on Saturday night. The final, it's not even regular season, but the college, the conference championship reaction show that we're, we'll be excited to go through all the championship games and quite a slate. And obviously we'll have, we have a lot of the answers now, but we'll have basically all the answers outside of if Clemson knocks off SMU,

how that score looks. Does Alabama stay in or is SMU going to, get in over. Can you imagine the SEC fans, the Alabama fans, the South Carolina fans of Clemsons in, even though one has nothing to do with the other, but just like the, the disgust, Alabama, the brand, the helmet, getting knocked out for SMU. Can you imagine? I cannot. Oh, it's going to be fun. All right. We appreciate everyone. Appreciate, you know, Dan and Tucker and Connor and Wardo hanging around doing this, adjusting everyone's schedule at Spotify and the ringer. Yeah.

It's happened. Fun, this had to happen tonight. And we'll see you. And on Thursday. Appreciate you, Munch. Appreciate you, man. All right. Talk to you soon.

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