The McShay Show - The College Football Playoff QB Confidence Draft. Plus, the Latest Transfer Portal Buzz.

Episode Date: December 15, 2025

Welcome back to The McShay Show! Todd and Steve open by reacting to the latest transfer portal news on DJ Lagway, Aidan Chiles, and LaNorris Sellers. Then, they take a look at the College Football Playoff field and draft the QBs they’re most confident in ahead of Friday’s first-round matchup between Alabama and Oklahoma.0:00 Welcome to The McShay Show!0:38 Todd's latest Intel and transfer portal news10:52 2025 CFP QB Confidence Draft20:30 Pick 1 (McShay): Fernando Mendoza, Indiana22:20 Pick 2 (Muench): Dante Moore, Oregon25:03 MY GUYS!26:45 Pick 3 (McShay): Gunner Stockton, Georgia31:56 Pick 4 (Muench): Julian Sayin, Ohio State36:35 Pick 5 (McShay): Carson Beck, Miami40:47 Pick 6 (Muench): Ty Simpson, Alabama42:37 Pick 7: (McShay): Behren Morton, Texas Tech47:13 Pick 8: (Muench): Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss48:32 Pick 9: (McShay): John Mateer, Oklahoma + Pick 10: (Muench): Marcel Reed, Texas A&M52:57  Pick 11: (McShay): Jake Retzlaff, Tulane + Pick 12: (Muench): Alonza Barnett III, JMU57:57 Join us this weekend live reacting to the CFP matchupsSubscribe to The McShay Report for access to all of Todd’s mock drafts, big boards, scouting reports, and more throughout the college football season.The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available.Learn more and join waitlist at ScoutMotors.comHost: Todd McShayGuest: Steve MuenchProducers: Tucker Tashjian, Conor Nevins, and Daniel ComerSocial: Jon Roemer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The college football playoffs start this week. And it's time for our annual quarterback confidence draft. Also, just 129 days until the NFL draft. So I got to ask you, Minch, you good? I'm good, man. All right, roll that beat, Tucker. I'm still recovering, man. Bill's Patriots yesterday, snowstorm, but it was kind of mild.

It was cold, but it wasn't like, you know, frozen tundra, Lambo field cold. Then we get in the car, get to drive down to the Cape, and a Blizzard breaks out. The McShay Show is presented by Fanduel. FanDil's got it all. Same game parlays,

quick bets for jumping in live, and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play. Plus, don't miss out on holiday offers and surprises all month long. Download the Fandual app or head to fanduel.com slash mixie to get started.

Must be 21 and older and present and selects States or 18 and older and present D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gampler or visit RG-Helpshelp.com. Call 1-88-78-9-7777 or visit cpg.g.org slash chat in Connecticut. All of a sudden, I'm driving over the Bourne Bridge and it's like a whiteout and snow sideways and cars spinning. So we stayed in the Cape last night. So we're coming a little, just a couple hours late today. Had to get up this morning and drive on back. But everyone's safe. The roads weren't treated. They are now. And we're ready for winter officially now here in New

England. Hope wherever you are, you're enjoying the early winter season and ready for the holiday. So with all that said, we have the quarterback. We do it every year. This being year two. It's a quarterback-driven show as much as men likes to change that and try to work around it. The confidence draft, we did it last year, and I want to in a minute get back to what we did last year and learn from my mistakes at least. I can tell you that much. But I do want to start with this, speaking of quarterbacks.

It's newsy. Let's get to it. DJ Lagway just announced this morning he is entering in the transfer portal. I don't want to say it's shocking news, but you did wonder with a new coaching staff coming in, new general manager in Caldwell. maybe that they would recruit heavily to get him there

and who knows what went on behind the scenes. Now word is that we're going to wind up seeing Florida go into the portal itself and find a different quarterback is the assumption. But DJ Lagway is moving on from his days of Florida. Initial thoughts on that, Steve. I'm not stunned. I do wonder how that's like you just said,

you know, we've had a lot of conversations about where college football is now and what does that look like when you're trying to. to keep a quarterback or maybe we're misreading it. Maybe they weren't trying to keep him. You know, he's had some problems staying healthy. He's been a little inconsistent. I think he's a super talented kid. I'm excited to see where he goes next and see what he does.

But just in terms of big pitcher of college football, what does that look like behind the scenes in terms of maybe trying to keep that player with the new coach going in? So it's obviously big news. Again, we could jump to all kind of possible landing spots, but I kind of want to. Yeah, I kind of want to. Like John Sop. John Somerall's loss is another head coach's game.

Yeah. The obvious one is going to be. Miami. Miami. Miami. I think that's one of them. Indiana, Mendoza moving on is another that I've heard rumors about. Oregon, if Dante Moore winds up after the college football playoff, leaving for the NFL,

and the place where Oregon's offensive cord, I'm not saying he's going to Kentucky. But Kentucky is a much. much more viable spot for a quarterback. In fact, it kind of becomes a destination for quarterbacks that need a year or two years, like a Bo Nix, Dylan, Gabriel, Adonte, Moore, Will Stein now is the head coach in Kentucky. And that's part of the lure of bringing Will Stein in, knowing that you have an edge up on a lot of other programs with quarterbacks in the portal and recruiting. What about LSU?

LSU is a possibility. They've got a young quarterback that they were trying out this year. but I still think... Oh, Lane's never satisfied. Right. Even when he's satisfied, he's not satisfied. And so, I mean, Trinidad Chambliss is a wonderful story.

But they, you know, Ferris State isn't going to be where they're, you know, Lane's looking for his transfers every year. And so, and Lagway, in some regards, fits a similar mold to. Although, Lane, I mean, the whole thing is... Do you see the Dan note? No.

Lane retweeted the news of Legway transferring. Yeah, I mean, so obviously. Stir in the pot. Yeah, and Lane can do it with any kind of quarterback. Going back to USC and the West Coast of Jackson Dart and Chambliss and everyone else he's had in between. So it's huge news. Also big news for our purposes and for college football purposes, draft and college football. Lenore Sellers, your guy.

I happen to like him a lot too, but he's your guy. The reports were, when I talked to Scouts in the middle of the season and got some information on Dante Moore's going back to school when Will Stein was there. Now it's kind of up in the air again. Also, one of the things I was hearing from Scouts was, hey, listen, it's a foregone. It's not foregone.

It is absolutely expected that Lenora Sellers is returning to college for another year. What we're not sure of is going to be another school. another program. And Miami was the school that was pointed out. And again, I said at the time, and I'll reiterate, it wasn't insider trading. It was not like, oh, I talked to people at Miami and they're actively and there's a deal going. It wasn't that. It was, Miami's done this now.

Cam Ward from Incarnate Word and then Washington State into Miami and Carson Beck from Georgia to Miami. And so there was some buzz in scouting circles that that might be the next transfer. quarterback that goes in for one year of call it repair, call it tuning up, whatever you want to call it and get ready for the NFL draft where Lenores could eventually be a top five pick. And so

that's interesting that South Carolina was able to get Lenoris back as all reports are indicating that that's the direction it's heading. So some big news, man, on the quarterback front. I mean, huge. And Aiden Childs, too, is another name. He put his name in. And NFL scouts have

And we, Aiden, Aiden Childes is a name with a fast start to the season that NFL scouts started kind of jumping on. Like, we better do some prep on this guy. We started to watch the tape midseason and we're like, hmm, needs another year, not ready. Like I was like, close the book, not ready, but like his potential. So now he's in the portal. And he is someone that I think a lot of programs would be interested in, okay, if we. He should, yeah. Oh, he's talented.

Mobile, big arm, all those things. So some opportunity for some quarterbacks to find greener pasture in their minds. And new scenery, new coaching, new supporting staff, or support, you know, supporting cast, I should say, around. Opportunities out there. And that's what the portal is all about. And that's where we've gone, you know, that's where we've gone in terms of college football these days. and instead of swimming against the stream, I'm swimming with it, man.

I think it's great. I've seen now too many years in a row where these quarterbacks have, it's not them bailing or it's not them like losing out on a job and like I'm going to quit and go somewhere else. It's I only get one shot at this, four or five, maybe six years like a Diego Pavia, whatever it is.

It's a limited amount of time to maximize my opportunity. and I'm going to take advantage of it. Yeah, I agree. Going back to the Lenore Sellers thing, that's interesting to me, is that they hired a new office coordinator in Art Bryles. And I do wonder, are you consulting with the Lenore Sellers team

when you're doing that? Are you saying, what do you think about the scheme? I mean, to me, this is fascinating how these hires are going to go and what kind of effect a star quarterback might have on it. And that's the most glaring example

because, let's be honest, I don't think of alone here. I think there was a really good shot that Sellers was going to leave there based on what happened this past season and how frustrating it was, even as an evaluator to watch that tape because you're trying to figure out how good this kid is, but the pass protection is not there, the receivers aren't there. It's tough to see how good he is. And then they hire a new offense coordinator, and then you get the news come out that Sellers looks like he's going back. Again, I wonder how much of a role the player in his team are playing in that kind of a hire. Oh, it's It's got to be right.

Yeah. Yes. Yes. And in some cases, it's productive. And we had a great opportunity last week to have a great sit down and discuss the big picture of everything with Jake Rosenberg, right? Of all things, you know, behind the scenes in college football that leads to the product on the field. And some programs are taking advantage of his services in the athlete group and others are hiring other GMs and doing. it their way and listen, whatever works, works. But there are so many people who are influential

in what the product is on Saturdays, many of which are qualified, many of which have no business. And so I urge parents and young men to do your research and the people who are around you, because it's critical now when it's becoming more important every single day. Yeah, so we'll be tracking all of that and keep an eye out on where lagway lands the deals finalized with lenora sellers what that means and then also aden chiles and all these other quarterbacks that we suspect there could be some some movement with as well um all right moving on to today second year we've done this last year i want to go back Tucker if you can throw up the graphic last year we had the college football playoff quarterback confidence draft right here's who we came

up with as our rankings that don't look great. What do you mean they don't look great? I'm okay with these. They don't look horrible, but we had Riley Leonard at eight and Will Howard at six. Yeah. And Dylan Gabriel at one, which I don't have a regret on that one. Quinn Ewers at two, like we combine that with Arch. And I think when you look at this list,

what do you take and learn from it? We went, other than Gabriel, I think, I think we went with kind of the hot hand. I think we loved the depth of Texas and the talent there, but kind of like Nico was hot at the time. Cade was hot at the time. Again, Penn State, that one, I kind of feel like, how do we do that?

I mean, how that must have been, honestly, that must have been your pick. Let's be honest. So, yeah, and it's, We didn't go, and I really did. It's interesting. I didn't go back and look at this list like you did. But I would say, when I was going through and making my rankings this year,

I was thinking more of the steady eddies, not the most talented guys, but the guys you really are going to trust when the game is on the line who can negotiate this four-game run, stay steady, you know, and keep their team calm and get through this instead of, oh, we'll look at the skill set. we'll look at the traits and look how we played at the end or maybe hit a big game at the end of the year and I think that momentum is going to carry over. I did try to make more of a big picture

and looking at that list I feel like, at least on my end, I was trying to maybe go with the hot hand at the time. I went back and looked at it. You know that there were three clear-cut most experienced quarterbacks in it. Dylan Gabriel was one. Will Howard had 2,816 snaps. 1345 passes.

Riley Leonard had 2,423 snaps, 1297 passes. They were two of the most experienced quarterbacks in the dance. They were the two that wound up in the national championship. So I went ahead this year. Let's start with this in reverse order. Well, I excluded two quarterbacks from this graphic that I created. I get in from the Cape this morning. My head's spinning.

I've got an hour and 15 minutes in the car, listen to some music I don't want to listen to, thinking about how we can make this show better. And I came up with, I'm going to exclude the two programs that we believe should be excluded from the dance. Okay. And the quarterbacks are Jake Retzlaff from Tulane, BYU transfer.

And I'll get into kind of the details later. And Alonzo Barnett from JMU, who's a JMU lifer, six foot, 217, red shirt, Junior Ratz left of his 6-1-205, BYU transfer, okay? If you take the other 10 programs that we legitimately think have a chance to compete in this, whether it's win a game or make a run. With the help of Tucker, I created this graphic.

And Tucker, you can throw up the college football quarterback index, okay? based off of last year, I put Will Howard and Riley Leonard down the bottom, just as a comparison so you could look at those numbers. What's similar here? I mean, just the experience when you're looking at it, right? Right. When you look at Will Howard with the 2816 and the 1345, similar to Carson Beck at the top, 2881 snaps at Georgia and Miami, 1493 passes.

Barron Morton, 2536, 1,437 passes. The two clearly most experienced quarterbacks in the dance. Right behind, the only three with over 2,000 snaps are Beck, Morton, and your Heisman trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza, with 2,135 snaps and 1179 passes, okay? I also created, because I started this, if I'm being honest. what are the two things that matter to me as an evaluator the most? What do you do for me as a quarterback on third and fourth down? Do you deliver in the clutch?

When we need to extend drives, how do you perform in those situations? And then pressure versus pressure. And interesting, Carson Beck versus pressure is ninth out of ten quarterbacks here. Seventh in third and fourth down. but he's got the most experience. So how do we weigh all these things? Where Baron Morton is third, third on this list in terms of ranking for third and fourth down.

But eighth versus pressure. Mendoza's four third and fourth down and ranked second pressure. But those are the three quarterbacks I kept going back to saying, experience in these situations are critical. And then I'll just go down the list. If you're driving in your car

listening to this and not watching on YouTube. We appreciate everyone who was watching on YouTube, Spotify, listening to Spotify, Apple, anywhere else you get your podcast. It goes Beck Morton-Mendoza in terms of experience. Then in the thousand to below 2,000 snap range, in order of experience, John Mateer, Oklahoma, Marcel Reed, Texas A&M,

Dante Moore, Oregon, Gunner Stockton, Georgia, and Ty Simpson, Alabama. And then the two that have fewer than a thousand snaps in their career, Julian Sayan, Ohio State, Trinidad Chamblis, Ole Miss. Kind of fascinating when you're looking at it that way. But Julian Sayan is one in one in terms of rankings, third and fourth down and versus pressure.

So how do we weigh all these things now that we have more information because we have a year to look back on from a year ago knowing how important experience was. I also want to step deeper. And I know I'm previewing all of this before a confidence trap. But I think it's more like, let's give some perspective, right? Yes. What else did Will Howard and Riley Leonard have?

Great defenses. Correct. And really strong running games that they were both a part of and their own, Leonard more so than Howard was with two unbelievably talented backs in Quinchaud Judkins and Trayvion Henderson. I watched Henderson yesterday. That Patriots game, by the way. I know it was an unbelievable. Those two runs. He's like 14 carries, but like 160 rush.

The explosiveness that he has, right? Transfer over 20 miles an hour. Over 20 miles an hour in that touchdown. In that weather too. Right. I couldn't go three miles an hour to go up to the bathroom in between quarters. I was so cold. All right.

But my point in all this is experience plus defense and run game. Now, what's interesting this year in the college football playoff, head towards the national championship, eight of the top 12 scoring defenses in the country are represented in the college football playoff.

Eight of them, Mench. Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech, Miami, Oklahoma, Oregon, Georgia and Alabama, all in the top 12 in that order. And then you've got 24th is Old Miss, which I was surprised that they were even that high, to be honest. And 41st was Texas A&M. Got a lot better from early in the season,

but those numbers are skewed by the shootouts earlier. So all good defenses, but eight are in the top 12 nationally. And then the run game, I did rankings on that too. I kind of got out of control this morning. I think you did. We're going to talk. I'm going to respond to the second to this. But Mendoza across the board is my point on it all.

And that's where I'm going to transition. Over 2,000 snaps, over 1,100 passing passes and career. Plus the number two defense and the number one, the 11th ranked run game. He's got the best comp, plus ranked. fourth and second in third, fourth down and pressure respectively. He's got the best resume across the board. So as we start this college football playoff draft,

I have the first pick because you gave it to me, actually. Yeah. And I will gladly take it with not a surprise, but I just wanted to give all of that as background as to why some of my picks might be wonky today. And I'm cool with that. Because it would have seemed wonky last year if I picked Riley Leonard and Will Howard.

Yeah, it would have won two. And they wound up there in the biggest dance of all. So I'll go with Mendoza here, which is chalk, but also aligns with everything that I just showed as a preview. Yeah, and I think the one thing that you had, you did a great job of talking about Mendoza there, I would say the one thing that maybe you didn't talk about was clutch moments. You can take all those numbers, but we, I mean,

you talk about the Heisman moments for a guy. How many Heisman moments that he had this year? I mean, Iowa, Penn State, who am I missing? Iowa, Penn State, Oregon, Ohio State. All of these moments. I mean, there's four games there. None of them true home games. Right, four games there that he came out,

and at some point in that game made a play for Indiana to win. Was the difference for his team. So you get into all those numbers, and the tape's great, too, by the way. I mean, we can talk about these numbers, the tape's great, and then these moments, I think Fernina Mendoza is an absolute luck. I'm going to push back a little bit on your method here.

I love that you got in the lab. I love the third, fourth down thing. I love the pressure thing. I didn't look at it. I mean, I'm a little more of a trust my gut guy, I guess. I did not consider running game and I did not consider defense, even though I do think it is a strong indicator of success in the playoff. And I think it really helps a quarterback.

I think that's, I was looking at it purely as the quarterback I would trust. the most in these big situations. I'm glad you said that. So I didn't really factor that in myself. Nor should you. Nor should you. It was honestly more like who do I think is going to make a run when you have a combination of all these things.

But I want to give some context. But no, this is about the individual. If he had the worst defense and the worst run game, would you still, if you just believe in this guy more? Right. Yeah. I also think I have some curveballs in here. So this would be funny if we end up going.

in similar directions. But for number two, we just get right into number two. You ready? Yeah. I took Dante Moore from Oregon. And I don't think that's, I think that is a little bit of an outlier,

maybe a little surprised. Julian Sand from Ohio State was definitely in consideration for me because of how efficient he's been. And Dante Moore, I know maybe the numbers aren't as good. I think he's been hurt by the lack of health at wide receiver. This is me just trusting my gut with what I see on tape and how,

and how poised he is in most situations. I just think that Dante Moore's number two on this list. By the way, it is a great list. This is a compliment for me in terms of Dante Moore. But we've talked about all year. Hey, Tucker, that's a great. Tucker, throw up the last year's rankings again. Throw up last year's rankings, please.

Dylan Gabriel, good player. Why not being a third round pick, a little higher than we expected. Quinn Ewer's seventh round pick. IMA Leava was a pup, super talented. Kate Klubnick, we've seen what's happened this year. Drew Aller, we saw what happened this year. year. Will Howard, fifth round pick, I think it was. Riley Leonard. Fifth round, right. They're fourth or fifth, but day three guys. Carson, Beck and Gunner Stockton, that thing was a mess.

What's going to happen here? You know, Curtis Rourke late round. Sam Levitt was a pup. Maddox-Madson, you know, like, that was last year's ranking. Now, Tucker, throw up, throw up the rankings this year. Look what we have to choose from, these 10 guys. Carson Beck, Reclamation Project, day two pick. Baron Morton, he's a day three pick, but like complete control and a veteran guy. Mendoza, number one overall pick. John Mateer, the thumb injury, I got it. Comes back next year, things go really well.

He'll climb maybe into day two. We're talking about him as day two coming into this year. Marcel Reed, super athlete. Dante Moore, legitimate top five prospect. Gunner Stockton's been awesome all year long. Ty Simpson, legitimate first round prospect. like Julian saying future first round pick. Trinidad Chambliss, one of the stories of college football.

So like, my goodness is a difference in the college football playoff with the quarterback position this year. Yeah, and you bought me some time to say this more, be more articulate with it. Obviously, the lost Indiana is a knock on more. But, you know, I like the way that he played at Iowa. Iowa was a tough place to win and to get them into a field goal position to win that game, I thought was, again,

with a lot of injuries at wide receiver, I love the way he played against USC. I think USC is a much better team than people give a credit. It's I have them higher than 16, which they are at the polls. I love the way he played against them late in the year. And then I love the way he played against Washington, which is a team that historically gives Dan Lannning and Oregon problems. I think he's played really well despite not having a great receiving core around him because of all the injuries.

All right, this is a good time to transition, right? Because we've built this show and our careers in certain ways on my guys, right? Like, that's my guy. and my guys, I get a sense because I know I'm going to go off, I'm going to go against all the research and everything I did, and I'm just going to go with my gut

with my next pick. And it's going to be one of just my guys. And today's, what's different today, today's my guys is brought to you by Scout Motors. We are pumped about this partnership with Scout Motors. Listen, I love a good shout out. So here's one. The all new Scout Terra and Scout Traveler,

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at the end of this segment. I want on the list. I want to scout. Look at Mench for a second. Put Mench's beautiful face in that beer. You're telling me that's not a scout guy right there. Cruising around the mountains

and New Hampshire. Getting down the coast. Come on. Get mench on the list too, Tucker. Talk to the executive. Get my man a bonus and get him on the list. We need scouts around here. But we're kind of scout guys. It's a perfect partnership. But with that in mind,

I give you all that data. I told you all the guys. I told you Beck and Morton Mendoza, right? Metteer, the most experienced guys. My third, my second pick, the third pick of this quarterback confidence draft, I just, I have to go with it. Gunner Stockton. Oh, no. Yes. That was my guy. I love it. It makes the segment even better. It makes the segment even better. I can't believe you got that. I should know.

Because you know I'm a Ty Simpson lover. Go. You know, you took Dante Moore. that's fine. I would have taken him over Dante Moore. Listen, if you are a, no, stop it. But anyways, I would, obviously, I wouldn't. If you're a, if you look at this at baseball, if you're a Billy Bean guy, if you're a Sabre metrics guy,

if you're a moneyball guy, you love Gunner Stockton, in my opinion. Tell me I'm wrong. He doesn't look. He doesn't win the contest. Who is the catcher? Oh, Hattaberg. He's like Scott Hattaburger. He's the Scott Hatterberg.

He's a Scott Hatterberg. Yes. Euclis, Haddeburg. You're right. These are the guys. They win you games when everyone else overlooks them. Terrible interview so bad that it's kind of good. Doesn't appear interesting.

Looks like he's going to be a future banker or something. But my gosh, he gets on the field and he operates the offense. He knows where the ball is going to go. He shows up in clutch moments. He's carried that team while the defense had to be lagged behind. and now all of a sudden the defense is playing at champion level. There's something about Gunner Stockton. I'm telling you.

So you know what? Like that to me, he's both of our guys. Unbelievable. He's definitely my guy, man. I love him there. Love him there. It's kind of like a scout.

It's like honestly, it's kind of like being in a scout Tara or a scout traveler. Like you know when this thing comes out. You just want to be in one. It brings you back to the old. old days. He brings you back to the old days. Gunner Stockton does of quarterbacks, tough guys, like Bradshaw. You know what I mean? Listen, I looked, I went through and I'm terrified of doing stats because the last time I

dipped my toes in stats, I didn't really do great. But this is, I'm pretty sure about this. I double checked. Okay. Against number six, Ole Miss, number 14, Texas, that's a good defense. And number 11, Alabama and the SEC championship game, or whatever, they're ranked, whatever, okay? He was, he completed 81.4% of his passes. He had 11 touchdowns and one interception. Not a big yards per game, but 224.6. Those are monster games, monster games.

And look how he played in those games. I just trust him more than most quarterbacks on this list to do the right thing. And I also know how I believe that he understands how to get, to throw the ball away. I am not the star here. I don't have to force the throw. He's third on this entire list in terms of NFL rating versus pressure. Like he just gets it. He gets.

He understands game management as well as any other quarterback on this list. He understands I am a part of this. I'm a cog in the machine. And this is what we are. We're a running team. We're a tough physical team. And we play good defense. And we don't, I'm not going to worry about, I'm not going to try to get.

This is one thing we criticize about Carson Beck at Georgia, right? They fall behind against Alabama last year. What did Carson Beck do? He tried to score 14 points on every drive. He's forcing a ton of throws, just trying to make that big play. Gunner Stockton, steady Eddie. That's what I was talking about, man. He just stays even keel.

The heart rate stays the same baseline for him. This is how I operate the offense. These are my reads. This is what I do. And then you just move on to the next play. He is so underrated. I can't believe he took a third. It's totally unscripted and that's the best part.

And it's the best way to kick him. off our partnership with with scout i mean scout motors like to me like this is this is perfect and so much so that we're you were i was going to have one you were going to have one but they're like that's it and this isn't about the nfl draft this is about who's our guy heading into the college football playoff and you got to start with mendoza and mention you love dante more and i do too this is about like who do you trust who do you want to ride with in the college football playoff and we both think We want to ride with Gunner Stockton. And that perfect way to kind of pull it all together

because today's My Guys was brought to you by Scout Motors, who are also making some pretty amazing moves in their field with the all-new Scout Terra and Scout Traveler, both coming soon. Get on that wait list. Join the wait list. You got to do it. Go to Scout Motors.com.

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But go ahead. I'm good. I know my rankings and I'm good with them. I feel very comfortable. And this guy, if you're, the knock on this guy is probably going to be that the biggest game of the year they lost. But Julian's saying from Ohio State,

the numbers are just too good. He's just too damn efficient. I look at that game against Michigan, which you know, Michigan down year for that team. I understand that. But when you throw that pick early and that pick of a game with the history of that game,

and the way he responded. I just love that. And just the overall body of work this year. I know he's young. I get that. But he's not like, you know, we talked to Urban Meyer earlier this year. He's not a freshman anymore, man.

He's got enough starts under his belt. He's played Texas. He's played, he's played in the Michigan game. And now he's played Indiana, that awesome Indiana in the Big Ten game. And even looking at that game, I don't know if people are aware

of how good that Indiana defense is. And I think he played pretty well. I mean, if we're really breaking down that game, remember the, when he got tackled for the, before he got to the line on that fourth down, they had to review that, and then a missed field goal.

I mean, he got, I mean, if Ohio State's kicker hits a chippy, that's a tied game, and we see what happens after that. I actually think he played pretty well in that game, if you go back and look at it. So to me, especially considering the defense in the stage,

to me, Julian's saying at four is, I mean, I feel great about that pick. Yeah, I mean, he's arguably, I mean, arguably, he might wind up being the most talented of all these guys. Arguably, he could wind up being, you could argue he could be a number one overall type pick. But throw up the graphic again. What was he against pressure and on third?

Was he, he was number one, number one on third and fourth down, number one in pressure versus pressure. Those are NFL ratings. If they were to apply NFL ratings, that's where it would be. It bears out on tape. That's what you see on tape. I mean, he's, I mean, it speaks for itself, in my opinion. Yeah. I mean, he's ninth on the list and experience.

And I've changed my ways, Munch. I've changed my ways. Here we go. The McShay Show is brought to you by Fanduel. The college football playoff is almost here. And Fandual is turning every future into a bigger opportunity. Because right now, you can get a 30% profit boost to use on any college football future bets. Just open the app, find your college football playoff futures market, and apply your profit boost right at checkout.

I want to tell you, I'm looking at Miami. They're plus 700 to get to the semifinals. I get it. They barely got in. They're coming from the ACC. But I went back and looked last year. It was Riley Leonard, Will Howard, two of the most experienced quarterbacks in the entire dance.

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With the number five pick in the quarterback confidence draft, Carson Beck. This is ridiculous. No, it's not. Ridiculous. No, that's what I have. Oh, okay. All right. I can't.

I was going to sit here and defend it. What happened to Ty Simpson? What happened to Ty Simpson? That's NFL love. And honestly, mid-season, I would have scrapped mid-s. season, like two-thirds away into the season, I would have scrapped all these, all this data that I've come up with. And it might wind up coming to bite me. But I'll tell you, I'm going to give you a sneak peek right now because I filled out my brackets. I owe it to Dan and Connor,

by the way. You still haven't got that in? No. I got stuck in the Cape. Does you get an extension? Apparently, hopefully. But I got Miami beaten Texas A&M. I would not surprise. me. Would not surprise me. Because of the experience that Beck brings to the table, because they've kind of flown under the radar. And when I look at him, like, yeah, pressure ranks, he's nine out of ten quarterbacks that I put in the system. He's seventh on third and fourth down. He's got a great defense. Does not have a run game, much of one. Eighth in that list, 77th nationally Russian game. But it's not about the exterior factors. It's about Carson Beck. And, And yeah, like I don't like the press conferences after the interceptions.

I think he's done a lot of growing, though. I think he's done a lot of learning. And I think there'd be nothing better for Carson Beck than to get an opportunity to shove it right up Georgia's, you know, behind side. Yeah. And in order to do that, you've got to beat A&M and then you've got to beat Ohio State. And by the way, I noticed the bracket. Ohio State kind of got jobbed.

And it's They're playing in Texas And if A&M wins that first game They're playing in Jerry's world, Arlington. Yeah. They play in the Cotton Bowl. How did they? And doesn't Georgia play in Atlanta?

Am I right about that? George, it's the sugar bowl. Where's the sugar bowl? Is that not Atlanta? Sorry. It's New Orleans, right? The New Orleans. Oh, okay.

Yeah, New Orleans. So, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So anyway. it's hard for me to do it, but sometimes you've got to trust your system. And I see the flaws in Carson Beck, but I also see the improvement. I see the maturity in his game.

I see the way they finish down the stretch. And sometimes you have to have it ripped away from you. Twice now, he's had it ripped away. Georgia, Ferrari's girlfriend. I'm still doing it. It's a fourth thing. Still doing it. And then the season was basically ripped away from him.

The opportunity to go to Miami and bring him to a college football. football playoff, and then they got late life. And the college football playoff committee did something that we, I didn't. And I know a lot of people I talked to after the fact who were laughing at our reaction, live on reacting to the show. What? No. There's no way they chose Miami over Notre Dame, even though they should have.

The head to head. So he's got life. Miami's a good team, though. Miami's a good football team. And that defense is really good. All right. So that's five. So Carson Beck will be five.

Hold on. Does the bad game, and I had Carson Beka Five, I'm agreeing with you, devil's advocate. This is one of the reasons, one of the reasons I didn't put them higher is the bad game pops up every once in a while. Louisville this year, bad game. Alabama last year. He gets on these rolls and then all sudden you get that bad game. If he can avoid that, I'm with you, man. If he can avoid that, that out of nowhere, out of characteristic performance. You know what scares me the most? But he's rolling right now. In that game specifically, is A&M lost. their last game out and lost to Texas.

There's something that that does in terms of getting the fellas back, like focused and dialed in. So, all right, anyway, who's up for you, six? Of course, Ty Simpson, Alabama. I, listen, I will say this about Ty Simpson. He would have been higher. If you're telling me I'm getting Georgia, Vandy, Missouri, Ty Simpson. Yes.

That stretch of how well he played at that period of the game, the period of the season, he's higher for me. And it's one of the reasons why I'm at six. He has not played at the same level since South Carolina. And while I don't consider the run game in terms of where I would rank these guys, I think Alabama's lack of a run game has led to bad habits for Ty Simpson. So I don't have him higher for that reason, but I think this is appropriate because of what he can do when he's paying at his highest level, which is operate that office.

offense as good as anyone else operates their offense in the country. I mean, he's accurate. He gets the ball out on time. He spreads the ball around. Give him time and give him a little bit of a run game. This guy is going to be awesome. But you look at the first year starter, hasn't played as well since South Carolina. I think it really knocked him down the list. But six feels good to me. Yeah, I like that. I think he's earned six. I think he earned higher earlier in the season. I love the guy. I love the way. way he plays the position. I worry about the inexperience. I worry about the five games in a row

with putting the ball on the ground. Yep. I worry about his number one wide receiver, like, I don't know what's going on with Ryan Williams. Right. I worry about no run game. And again, these are, these don't factor. Like my confidence in Ty Simpson himself is extremely high. My confidence when you include some of the factors makes me want to put them like even lower on the list to be honest, and things that are out of his control. Right, right. Here's a tough one. Is it?

I feel good about my seven. The top seven I really like. The two guys that I want to pick, I can't do it. I hate that we have the same list. I already know. I already know. No, you don't. I'm actually struggling.

I've got two that are right in the same bracket. I'm going with Baron Morton. Oh, stop it. Stop it. I am. This is a great list of quarterbacks. And I mean, don't notice respect to Baron Morton.

I've got some really good things to say about him. No way. I believe he's the perfect captain for that ship. That's true. 2,536 snaps. Second most in this entire college football play. If I told you Will Howard or Riley Leonard. Right.

Was my second or third. third pick last year, you would have said, get out of here. Okay. Because we both view it from an NFL draft lens, right or wrong, probably too much. I'm removing NFL draft lens. They haven't lost the game where he was a starter, sir. I get it, I guess. I'm not saying he's going to put up big numbers, but I'm saying my guy at my guy at seven

versus your guy at two is probably going to be. win in the second round of the playoffs in Miami at the Orange Bowl. It's going to be a great game. It won't be because that you're not saying that his experience. You think that Texas Tech is going to beat Oregon because of Baron Morton being better than Dante Moore? I think Morgan is going to play his perfect role in that game. So you think Texas Tech is a better team than Oregon? I'm okay with that.

I'm just saying I'm relying on cute. I'm relying on experience this year. I learned from my mistakes. Go ahead. I mean, you're getting a little cute with how you're wording that. He also is third. He's third and he's third on this list, man.

Third and fourth downs. He delivers when you need him. Keeps it keeps drives extended. Allows that defense to get ready and rested. Now he's eight versus pressure. Yeah. Let me let me, let me, uh, rattle off a couple numbers for you here.

Okay. He threw, he's 12 for 19 with two picks against Utah before he got hurt. Yeah. First BYU game, 53.1% of his passes. I understand. The second BYU game, he had, I mean, he played better, but okay, not great. I don't, like, who's this getting great against? How many points do they score in those games?

Here's a 29, 36. Was it because of him? I mean, against Utah, Will Hammond came on when there was, I think, a seven-point game. BYU, they had 29 the first game at 34, the second game. It wasn't, I mean, you looked at that, you know that the second, the big 12 championship game, that defense went off at the end. And, I mean, that's why they scored somebody.

Just stop. Tucker, Tucker, when you create a graphic, when you create this graphic, you're needling me. You are needling. When you create this graphic, one through 12 at the very end, I want it on the side to be like a little asterisk or note on who picked who. And then I want to remember this when we get into our week leading up into the college football playoff.

And I want to revisit this. Yes. Okay. And because Texas, Texan, an awesome overall team, you're going to act like that's because, whatever. Did durability come into this at all for you? Um,

like with material? It did for me. No, with Baron Morton. Missed two games this year. He's been banged up a lot, man. There's been times where he looks like he's barely, well, tough.

By the way, this is one of the nice things I'll say about Baron. As tough as they come. Yes. I mean, he takes off this helmet. His hair's flapping up and around. He looks like a pretty boy. He's not.

He is a tough, tough, tough dude. It's like a new Heisel. Yeah, yeah, it makes no sense to me because I, you look at him and you're like, all right, pretty, pretty. And he goes out there. That's tough, though. That's different in California. He's had some kind of lower body injury where he's playing on it. I mean, the dude's rugged.

And I love that. I believe in him. He is nowhere near the runner that Riley Leonard was last year. And he's nowhere near as mobile as Will Howard. I don't think there's, there's, there's, he's, I had him 10 on my list. Okay. All right, go ahead. So number eight, Trinidad Chambliss.

I don't know why you're hating on it. This is clearly. The least experienced quarterback in the top 10. Go ahead. He's thrown for more than 300 yards in four of his last five games in seven times this year at the SEC level. I'm worried about no kiffin. I am worried about that.

And it did come into play of like, how is that going to affect this young's band's confidence and what's going on and all of that and how well he's prepped. Maybe, maybe would have been ahead of Simpson. if Kiffin's still there. I'm going to be honest with you. 18 touchdowns of three interceptions. He's done a good job of taking care of the ball.

He's rushed for 470 yards and six touchdowns. I mean, this is the guy. He's like Gunner Stockton. Little Trinidad Chamblis from Ferris State. I mean, how is he going to go out there and compete with these guys? And then he just goes out and absolutely balls. The Tulane doesn't want to see him again. I can tell you that.

I mean, I think he threw for 300 and rushed for 100 in that game. 400 yards of all. offense just from Trinidad Chamblis. I, this is, he's another one of those guys you look at and you, and you think that it doesn't look like your traditional quarterback, but he is so damn good that I think he deserves to be at least seven on this list. Number eight's John Matur.

I struggled with this one. Yeah. Well, I made it easy on you so that you could, so that you didn't have to choose Mathier over read. I will. It's a mild indictment on Reed, and I just don't trust him. I believe in his skill and his running ability, and he has some moments that no other quarterback in this group can have.

However, I just don't know when it's going to pop up. And it popped up in the first half against South Carolina. It popped up in the second half against Texas. I just don't trust that going in. I'd rather steady. And, listen, he has material. There's a reason why he's nine on this list. right and not higher because you still even without the thumb you have some mature moments

but the thumb injury absolutely changed who he has been as a passer ever since I'm hopeful and again this is at nine but I'm hopeful John Mateer is had a few weeks to kind of reset they didn't play in the SEC championship game so their last game was the end of November it gives them a few weeks to get ready for for this you know this first game against Alabama on Friday night. I just believe in him. I would, when he's right, I'll ride and die with John Mateer.

I really will. And I'll take that I agree with. I'll take the, the valleys with the peaks. Yeah. But we'll see. But I struggled with those two. From an experience, Meteer's slightly more experience,

you know, 100, like almost 200 more snaps. A couple hundred more, almost 100. 150 like somewhere in that range, more more passes. But yeah, it's not pretty in terms of third and four. He's 10th out of 10 in third and fourth down. He's 10th out of 10 versus pressure. That thing came off the rails after his thumb injury beginning with Texas. And we'll see if a few weeks to heal kind of reset mentally too will help him.

But what it's not going to change is the offensive line. And it's not going to change the lack of a run game. So he's left with that. I put read ahead of material. Those were two really, that was really tight for me. By the way, did you have Chambliss behind or ahead of these two? I had Chambliss behind them because of the inexperience. I'm an experienced guy in this list.

Yeah, that's who you're doing. Otherwise, yeah. You know what? I respect it. I respect it. That's what you're doing and that's what you're going with. And then you remove Kiffin and I just got to be honest about, you know, like I get a, And I've been beating the drum.

I think you take a shot at him in the late rounds as an NFL draft prospect if he doesn't get that extra year. So get it back to the Meteer versus Reed because I think that's, you know, whether or not we had him the same spot on our list. Those were the two guys that were right there, I think, in the same bucket.

I, Meteer had two, three interception games. One was against Texas, which I don't think he had any business playing in that game. I mean, he was coming off the thumb injury. And so I kind of throw that one out. But he did have three picks against LSU in the season finale. And we've seen that with him in the past.

He's going to put the ball in harm's way. And I gave Reid the slight edge because Reed can do the same things, right? But Reed has a win at Notre Dame. I actually give him some credit with the way that they beat South Carolina after a terrible first half and then to come back and have that performance. I think it's a little credit for that, to be honest with you. I hear you. I just, to me, that was a little bit more of an edge.

And I think Reed's had to shoulder more, this is going to sound crazy because if you've been watching Oklahoma, you know how much Mateer's had to do for that offense. But, you know, you look at that Oklahoma defense. And I think Marcel Reed hasn't had that Oklahoma defense. And I think there's been times where he's had to make more plays and there's been a little, maybe a little bit more pressure. He's had a better running game. I don't know. It's a slight edge. Both are carrying their run game.

Yeah. Have had to, at least down the stretch. When you're looking at it, you're just kind of. you know, it's very close to me. Give me one or the other. And by the way, I'll take either. Again, this list compared to last years. It's amazing.

We're literally at 10 and like still have passion. Give me either of them. And I kind of like the guys we're going to talk about at the end of here. I kind of like some traits they have. So it's interesting to me. Alonzo Barnett, JMU, or Jake Retzlap from Tulane. I'm going to go with Retzlaff because he's proven to be a way. I know Barnett's a JMU lifer and is I think he's a redshirt junior but I think this is

fourth year there. Retzlaff has just been a and mind you, Barnett has been a better runner and he's rushed for 544 yards and 4.7 per carry and all that stuff where Retzlaff is just 118 yards. There's no winning here, but I'm going to go with the more experienced guy, a BYU transfer. Yes, I recognize that he was just five of 17 versus Ole Miss, and that's the opponent. Yep. And he was just 50% with two interceptions and the other loss that they had against UTSA. But he is a winner. He's two years now, two different programs.

He's lost two games in each of those seasons, okay? I like his traits too, man. BYU 24. Yeah, yes. He's got a good arm. Like, I like his traits. He's completing over 62. 14 touchdown, 6.5%.

Like none of it's, none of it's jarring or jumping out at you. They're just, yeah, it is what it is. They're playing Ole Miss. So it's going to be a long day at the office. It is. He does lead Tulane with 610 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, by the way. I mean, 16 rush for, uh, but's left. Oh, okay.

Yeah, I mean, he's, he's the 16 touchdowns really jumped out at me. He's not, when you watch him. though he's not. Maybe I looked up last year. I was going back and forth between BYU, and he didn't rush for as much. But go ahead. He did not.

He did not rush as much last year. Was it 118 yards last year? I think I was mixing them up. Nope, 417. I don't know what the hell I was doing. Yeah. We're not stats, guys. We got to be careful.

No, we're not. Yeah. It doesn't really matter. We try. We are trying. But I, yeah. What happens with team guys try to get into numbers. Yeah.

Retz laugh. Two-year starter, good traits. Again, I think a good runner, obviously a dangerous guy in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. So, yeah, I like him. I went with Alonzo Barnett ahead of him. Alonzo Barnett the third. And one of the reasons I did it was this kid went into North Carolina last year with JMU. And again, I understand.

North Carolina is not a great program, but it's an ACC program. They went on the road. He threw for 388 and five touchdowns in that game. They won. It jumps out to me. I watch him on tape. for 102 versus Louisville and a loss of year. Go ahead.

He got hurt in that game. He completed 40% versus Troy in his last outing. But go ahead. 100% true. 100% true. But I hear you like you're I'm an optimist. No, you're looking for something.

Show me that you've done it. Show me in a big moment. You've done it versus the trade. Better competition. I like it. I should have known you were going to bring up the toy game. But I like the way he kind of flicks.

He just flicks his wrist in the ball. comes out, I mean, he comes out with great zip. He's a big play waiting to happen. He makes big plays with his feet. He could take the top off the coverage. If you're looking for a guy that you want to take, who's going to be a home run hitter, right? If you're coming up here and you're not,

you don't have a solid roster. And as a bait, we're going to all baseball metaphors today for Munch. Dan, I hope you're happy. If you have a guys that you don't have a lot of great hitters on your roster, if you have a home run hitter, it means something because you can get runs on the board, right? And I think he's a home run hitter.

And if you're looking for guys that are going to take big swings, to take down, you know, Goliath, then you need a guy like, like Barnett, the third, who can, again, take the top off the coverage, make plays with his feet. So also, gritty dude. He tore his ACL late last year, came into this season, didn't have the starting job,

was platooning, and then won the starting job during the year. I kind of like that perseverance, that grit. That's why one of them held slightly higher than Jake Retzloff. I will say this, all of these quarterbacks. If you have a team who's in the playoff, I mean, it does range Mendoza and then everyone else, really. But these are some really good quarterbacks, man. Yes.

And I don't wish the task on Barnett III on anyone. No, no. Going from Virginia out to Oregon to play that team and that defense. But, yeah, it is what it is. And this is an opportunity. And let's see which one of these guys steps up. This is fun. I like doing this.

I like, and I like, now we get to see when you have one year of data, sometimes it gets skewed in one direction too much. And maybe we, maybe it was just because Riley Leonard and Will Howard had the best defenses and maybe I put too much stock in experience this year. But I can say this from going back and doing that exercise with you focusing a little bit more on the traits and the guys we typically would pick and me focusing on more on like the experience and the guys fitting their role in all. all that. I feel like it's a more balanced rankings than it was a year ago. Yeah, and at the end of the

day, Mendoza, Stockton, Moore, those are saying those are the, those are four of the best quarterbacks in the, in the dance. And also, they've got chances to make real serious runs in this thing. So it should be a lot of fun. So you got your bracket in. I'm going to turn my bracket in. We're back on Thursday. Working on a guest sent a text. I don't know if I've gotten it back. We'll let people know. But yeah, and then all of a sudden we're back, we got Friday night game, three games Saturday. Give us some feedback, folks. What do you think? Should we, we're thinking a Saturday night show going back to the normal, but we could be talked into something else. If we could be talked into

something else. Let's put it that way. ATB, get your word in, man. ATB and Colmarie. and Haas and Holly Jeremy Gudd and the whole mafia, if you will. If they speak loud enough, we might hear you. Fun show. I love it. Big week.

Yeah, that was great. I love that one. That's a good one. I can't wait for the college football player. We do it every year. Yeah, all two years. All two years. And for you, sir, five stars.

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