The Megyn Kelly Show - Wargaming How Democrats Could Ditch Biden Next Year, and Criminalizing Speech in the U.K., with Chris Stirewalt and Calvin Robinson | Ep. 640

Episode Date: October 4, 2023

Megyn Kelly is joined by Chris Stirewalt, contributing editor at "The Dispatch,” to discuss the House voting out the Speaker for the first time in American history, why Matt Gaetz hates Kevin McCarthy, who might be the next Speaker and what happens next, how long the Democrats have to swap out President Joe Biden as a nominee in 2024, the difference between Biden dropping out in March and August, what may could lead to a contested Democratic convention, a little known way just a couple hundred Democratic National Committee members can get rid of Biden after he wins the nomination and select his replacement without consulting anyone else, who might get the nomination in that scenario, what happens if Joe Biden wins in November 2024 but is pushed out before he's inaugurated, Trump's true chances of winning the nomination, Glenn Youngkin's path if he enters the race, if the GOP might try to swap out Donald Trump as nominee if he goes to prison, how Republican voters could react to that development, and more. ThenFather Calvin Robinson, Anglican deacon, joins to discuss getting fired by GB News for his “loyalty” to Laurence Fox and Dan Wootton after their controversial segment that got them suspended, the cancel culture happening in the U.K. today, Laurence Fox getting arrested in England today for the "pre-crime" while discussing "Blade Runners" and new surveillance mechanisms in the country, the state of freedom of speech in England, and more.Stirewalt: https://thedispatch.com/author/chris-stirewalt/Robinson: https://www.givesendgo.com/homeofcancelcultureFollow The Megyn Kelly Show on all social platforms: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/MegynKellyTwitter: http://Twitter.com/MegynKellyShowInstagram: http://Instagram.com/MegynKellyShowFacebook: http://Facebook.com/MegynKellyShow Find out more information at: https://www.devilmaycaremedia.com/megynkellyshow

Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM Channel 111 every weekday at noon east. Hey everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show. Oh, we have a great, great program for you today. One that I can only bring you in this new format with the time to truly dig into these issues. Honestly, like if I were on cable news right now, we wouldn't be able to do any of these issues justice. Never been happier to be exactly where I am. In just a bit, we're going to be joined for an exclusive interview with Calvin Robinson. Now, I mentioned him earlier this week. He was suspended and now, as of this morning, fired by GB News over in Great Britain in the wake of the Lawrence Fox fallout. We've been bringing this story to you. Remember, Lawrence Fox went on Dan Wooten's GB News show. Dan's been on the show many

times talking about the Royals, etc. And he made a crass comment about a political commentator over there, a woman who he thought was demeaning or diminishing male suicide. Well, all hell broke loose. All hell broke loose. Lawrence got suspended. Then Calvin defended Lawrence. Calvin got suspended. Dan, who was just anchoring the segment, he got suspended. And now this morning, Lawrence got fired and so did Calvin. And Dan's fate looms in the balance he's going to find out later this week. Meanwhile, we booked Lawrence Fox, the man who made the controversial comments to come on this show. And he was going to come on in our second hour, except he's not

because he was arrested this morning at his home in London. You cannot make this shit up. He's in jail at the moment. So we had to find a different guest. Thankfully, Calvin said he'd come on. He's all I mean, is he about to be arrested, too? We'll get into it in just a bit. But we begin with the chaos to come in the 2024 election cycle, which is very uncertain to put it to put it mildly. We've been wanting to bring you this report for a while. What happens if or and how can the Democrats actually swap out President Biden from their ticket? How can it happen either before they get to the Democratic convention, after they get to the Democratic convention, after they get to the Democratic

convention. We're going to go down the contingencies. And how about on the other side? Can Trump be subbed out if he wins the nomination, you know, come Super Tuesday and so on, and then winds up in jail between March of 2024 and November of 2024. What are the Republicans options today? We have someone here who can actually answer these tricky questions and many more like what happens if Glenn Young can actually gets into the race, but beyond the point where his name can be on the ballot, um, all of the ins and outs, this man has answers, you know him well. Oh, and by the way, before we get to any of that, yeah, for the first time in American history, the house voted out the speaker and Kevin McCarthy is gone and we have no speaker

of the house. There's that little matter to deal with. Joining me now in all of it, our expert, Chris Stierwald, contributing editor at the dispatch, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and co-host of the Ink Stained Wretches podcast with our friend Eliana Johnson. Chris, welcome back to the show and what a day to have you. I mean, I just hope I don't get arrested. My real hope here is that I can navigate this this time with you and not myself be jailed. And also, I would say it's great. It's great to be with you because, as you said, you'd have already been late for your first break. If this was on on cable news, you've got time to exp for your first break if this was on cable news. You've got time to expound on this stuff.

It's really cool, and I appreciate it. I love doing it. And so I can't find our copy of the Wall Street Journal, but here's what showed up at our house today. This is the New York Times for the listening audience. Big, big headline. McCarthy first to be removed as speaker. And then you've got the New York Post. Gates of hell. G-A-E-T-C.

Okay, that's pretty good. McCarthy first house speaker ever ousted after coup by Florida Republican, or Representative Gates. So it's a big deal. I do find it hard to get excited by Congress. I didn't get excited by the shutdown. I knew they'd sign something to kick the ball a little. And indeed they did. But this, this is a different sliver, different kettle of fish, as they say. And it is interesting to me that McCarthy's out and says he doesn't want to come back. So let's walk through it in baby steps. I've written down my questions, which I almost never do, Starwalt, so we can do do it baby steps. Here's my first question. Why does Matt Gaetz hate Kevin McCarthy?

That's number one. Okay, well, I mean, first, the big scope is in one day, if you do the split screen, you've got the frontrunner for the Republican nomination and former president in a courthouse getting a gag order because of stuff that he was saying about somebody in the courtroom. Whoa, that's never happened before. Yeah. And then and then on the other part of the split screen, you've got the sitting president's son in a courthouse entering a not guilty plea to charges that he had previously been prepared to plead guilty to. That's never happened before. And then the icing, the coup de grace, never before has a sitting Speaker of the House been removed. Now, on the one hand, everything has never happened until it does. So what, right? It's consequences that matter,

not whether it's the first time that it happened. Matt Gaetz hates Kevin McCarthy for a variety of reasons, and I don't like to question people's motives, but here it seems pretty clear that the motives are in the light most favorable to the defendant, I guess I'd say, that this small group of Republican lawmakers believes that the only way to affect change is to make sure that whoever is in leadership is absolutely terrified to defy them. And this is the kind of sanction, the kind of punishment that this small group can deliver in a narrowly divided Congress. If I take it in a light less favorable to the defendant, Matt Gaetz sounds like he wants to run for governor of Florida. Matt Gaetz wants to be very famous and very important. And this is a vehicle to be very

famous and very important, certainly. As you just showed, get you on the front page of every newspaper, makes you the topic of conversation. But it won't change anything, right? But it will certainly make Matt Gaetz famouser. I also heard that he blames Kevin McCarthy for the ethics investigation into him, though they say that actually wasn't McCarthy's fault, but he doesn't like that he's being investigated and he thinks McCarthy at least didn't do enough to save him in any event.

That's what Kevin McCarthy is saying, that this is all personal by Matt Gaetz. He barely made speaker because they just have such a slim majority in the house. I think it's just a four person majority. And so he barely won the speakership and he had to cut all these deals to get it. Now one has come back to haunt him. That would allow any one member to basically force a vote on whether he should stay speaker. That's what Matt Gaetz did because he didn't like the deal that Kevin McCarthy ultimately cut to postpone the spending battle for six weeks or so. Kevin McCarthy did have a deal, as I understand it. He brought it to Matt Gaetz. He brought it to everybody. He said, here's a deal that could do some stuff, maybe some more border funding.

And Matt Gaetz gave him the big middle finger. He was like, not good enough and sent McCarthy walking because Gates said, I'm pissed because you made that deal and you're going to need Dems to support you. This is what a turncoat you are. Right. This is do I have it right so far? Well, the point was to make McCarthy use Democrats. Right. That was the point, because if you want to remove McCarthy, you need the causus bella. You need the reason. And the reason was going to be that he used Democratic votes to avert a shutdown. Now, we remember when John Boehner stunned the nation and said, I'm not going to let you vote me out. I'm out. I'm leaving. I'm going to put the vote forward, avoid the shutdown. I forget

whether it was a shutdown or a debt ceiling lift, but we're going to do that. And then I'm out. And McCarthy said, I'm going to do that. And then I'm going to hang. I'm going to do that. And I'm going to stay here and we're going to see what happens. And they did it to him. And I think a larger way to think about this would be starting with the 2010 election. There's been a revolution inside the Republican conference and it has intensified over time. And it took down Boehner and it took down Paul Ryan. And now it's taken down Kevin McCarthy. And the problem with revolutions is they burn themselves out because you start out and you say, we all want something different. We this should be different.

OK, yes. Well, what do you want? And the answer continues to be, well, not that different. I just don't want I want that. I don't want that. And it keeps going and keeps going, keeps going. And if you just try a thought experiment, imagine Democrats doing this. They had just as small a majority in the House before. And it's impossible to imagine Democrats doing this, even with members of the squad, even with radical ideologues and glory hogs abounding in the conference. It's impossible to imagine Democrats doing it because Democrats are much better at sticking together than Republicans who who are just better at sticking it to each other. They are. The Democrats are. They're good. They get in line when they have to. They fight, but then they they bring it home in the end and the Republicans just

wind up killing each other in their circular firing squad. Even when they're winning, they find a way to lose. You know, we've always said never underestimate the Republicans ability to screw it up. And now they could have had headlines about Hunter Biden and Joe Biden and the impeachment inquiry. And instead, we have headlines about the meltdown inside the House GOP and how they can't even run the one body that they now control. They had the one. They can't run it. For two or three weeks, what was the narrative in the political press? Joe Biden is awful. That was the narrative. It was clear. There was a Washington Post poll that showed him getting just shellacked by Donald Trump in a rematch.

Every story, every bit of energy surrounded the question of whether Joe Biden was going to get dumped by the Democratic Party. He's not going to be able to serve. And it was a drumbeat. And the Hunter Biden story, of course, reinforces all of that. And the Republicans said Matt Gaetz said, hold my beer. We don't want to talk about that. That's not what we want to talk about. We want to talk about back to me. Yeah, back back to me. And we want to talk about how angry we are at Kevin McCarthy. And it's look, being as you correctly identified, counselor, being in control of one half of one branch of government is not a sufficient posture from which to advance policy reforms. The best that you're really going to be able to do is stop bad things that you don't like. That's sort of your maximum. And

looked at one way, the Republicans have been extraordinarily successful under McCarthy's leadership in this brief period of time. They did get stuff. They did force Biden to the negotiating table. And they did it because Republicans could stick together and they could pass stuff out of the House. That's what McCarthy wanted him to do this time. Look, I know it's going to pass, but we've got to put the Senate on the back foot. We've got to pass something. And this, again, very small number of members of the Republican conference, I think just eight people said, no, we don't want to pass something. We would rather we would rather feel good failing than we would take the fight to Senate Democrats. Yeah. Shut her down. We'd rather fail. So they have failed and they had to in order to get rid of McCarthy, work with Democrats. The ultimate irony. That's that was McCarthy's sin. He worked with the Democrats to kick this spending thing down the road. And then in order to punish him for it, the eight had to work with Democrats who were ticked off and off at McCarthy for the impeachment inquiry and blaming a bunch of stuff on them and just generally not liking

the Democrats so much that they were like, we're not going to save you. And I understand that, too. Why should they save him? They're like, bye. So here's my next question for you. Written down. Why is Kevin McCarthy not running for speaker again? I assume he thinks he either can't win or in order to win the concessions that he would have to make would be even more odious than the concessions the first time. A job in which you have responsibility, but not authority, you're not really in charge, right? You're a goat. You're there to take the beating for the failures, but you don't really have the ability to lead. And that's where the House Freedom Caucus generally, but this small clack of members, that's what they want the speaker to be. The speakership is envisioned as a very powerful office. Remember, this is third in line for the presidency. And the speakership is envisioned as a very powerful office and lots of privileges

in terms of how Congress is run devolved to the Speaker of the House. So what these folks want is somebody who can't do that, who's really more of just a vote counter, right? They just want somebody who's going to go with whatever the plurality of Republicans in the conference want from time to time. And that's not a job that Kevin McCarthy would want to have. So I assume it's those things. And I also assume that and this is not something that I think would have come easily to McCarthy because he's been climbing the greasy pole to be speaker for so long. And if you'll recall, he was denied the speakership once before, which is how it landed in Paul Ryan's lap because of the complaints of these folks. And there was a really ugly whisper campaign that was launched against McCarthy and his lifelong, I don't know if it was lifelong, but decades long effort to become the speaker was dashed. And so he gets it back. So he put all of this time and effort into having this job. And I would just say, if he did it for that, if he walked away for this reason, that he thought it would be better for his country and better for his party, then good for Kevin McCarthy.

Because as we can see in American politics today, people have a hard time leaving. My gosh, they have a hard time leaving. And if what he said was, you know what, I'm good. If he did what Boehner did or Ryan did and said, I've had plenty and I'm leaving now so that you guys can move on. That's a lesson that both parties in large part can take about letting things change and letting the page turn. One man who was very effective House speaker is our former colleague at Fox News, Newt Gingrich, who went on with Hannity last night and was not happy about what this eight dubbed, I think, by Ben Dominich and the American Spectator as the hateful eight, which I know is seed oils, the hateful eight seed oils, which are to be avoided.

In any event, Newt Gingrich is very angry at that, quote, hateful eight and said the following. Listen here. 96% of the Republicans voted for McCarthy. 4% voted against him. From my position as a longtime Republican activist, they're traitors. All eight of them should in fact be primaried. They should all be driven out of public life. What they did was to go to the other team to cause total chaos. We ought to be focusing on Biden. We ought to be focusing on the economy. We ought to be focusing on Biden. We ought to be focusing on the economy. We ought to be focusing on the border. Instead, you're going to get a week or 10 days of the media focusing on Republican disarray. It's an astonishingly

destructive behavior by a handful of egocentric people who think they're superior to 96 percent of the conference. And here is my next question, Starwalt. Do Republicans enjoy losing elections? Well, you know, it's it's it's not it's not a crazy thing to say, because I think it goes like this. Republicans have come to believe that success. So let's start with the first assumption, which is people on the right don't like the government and people on the left do. We have a pro-government party, essentially, and we have an anti-government party. So if you're good at being in the government, you're already viewed with suspicion by people on the right. When you reinforce that with a narrative that says we always get sold out, we always get sold out, we get sold out every time they tell us they're going to be conservatives and then they get in there and they sell us out. And so that idea of

betrayal, which, by the way, has animated and sustained Donald Trump in every way as he has come to dominate the Republican Party. This concept of betrayal is deeply rooted in Republicans. I'm talking about going back generations to our grandparents generation about this feeling of betrayal. So you have a party that is disinclined to see the government be the government. You have a party that is has a strong belief that they have been frequently betrayed by people sleeping with the enemy. And then you have this.

What is proof positive that you've been betrayed? Somebody is succeeding at governing. Right. Somebody is succeeding at winning. They're getting stuff done because the only way that you could we have a very evenly divided nation. Right. And we have had very evenly divided nation, right? And we have had really for most of this century, we have a country that is 47, 47 and people who just want to puke. And the, in a country, in a country like that, you're not going to be able to advance big ideas on partisan lines. Look at how Barack Obama,

look at the disaster of Obamacare creation, passage, and implementation. What a debacle that was. And they ended up with very few things out of what they wanted and a bad election message and all those things. We don't have the kinds of majorities for either party in America that would allow party line success. So the only way that you can get some of what you want is working with the other side. So Republicans look at their fellow Republicans who work with Democrats or offer things that are appealing to a mainstream audience, and they say, thisosing is evidence of purity. And there was one member of the Freedom Caucus, and I think it was Matt Rosendale from Montana, who talked in a recent interview about how he prayed that the Republican majority would be small after the 2022 midterms. What is that? Right. Who says that?

What person says, I just hope that my party didn't do that well. Now, the reason he was praying that his party would have the kind of puny showing in midterms that it did was that he knew his power would be greater in a Congress that was less Republican. And I think that encapsulates sort of the self-defeating thinking that dominates among Republicans and why they, at a moment of enormous political opportunity for their party, cannot seem to get out of their own way. Yeah. Well, now they caught the bumper. You know, the dog caught the bumper. Now what? Unclear. McCarthy's not running again.

Jim Jordan threw his hat in the ring today. There's a temporary guy who's just going to like pass, you know, make sure order is maintained while they figure out who the real guy is. So far, as far as I can tell, this guy, McHenry, his name is Patrick McHenry of North Carolina.

His first move was to, um, as acting speaker was to order former house speaker, Nancy Pelosi to get out of her Capitol Hill hideaway office. That's like the, the nice big sort of personal office where it's all like you're bragging photos and so on. According to an email center. I mean, I kind of like that go McHenry. Good. Get her out so far. I like the new guy, but at any rate, putting him to the side where he's not the real guy. So Jordan's throwing his hat in the ring and then, and then there's this little nugget from Hannity last night. Listen,

Sato. Sources telling me at this hour, some House Republicans have been in contact with and have started an effort to draft former President Donald Trump to be the next speaker. And I have been told that President Trump might be open to helping the Republican Party, at least in the short term, if necessary, if it's needed. I mean, I just as a as a journalist, obviously, I want this. I want to see this tried. I just I'm here. I'm six blocks away from the Capitol.

I want to I want to see it as a journalist. But wow. Wow. Yeah, that's not real. Right. That's just Trump getting his name repeated over and over? So my guess would be this, that Elise Stefanik, a congresswoman from New York, is the most likely person to become the next speaker. And then you'd say Steve Scalise, unfortunately, is struggling with cancer. And I don't know whether he wants to put himself

through this. He's the number two guy in the house right now but yeah but yeah he's got a health issue and he's well liked um but stefanik is very ambitious and she has has been uh grinding it hard to get to this position she's the one who ousted liz uh lynn cheney liz cheney uh and she has so i so i'm looking at those two uh j, I don't think would have enough support across the conference, even though he's been sucking up to McCarthy and trying to mainstream himself of late. I'm still skeptical, but we'll see. Anyone can be nominated to be speaker of the House. You could be nominated. Well, you would make a great speaker of the House. It would be a short run. It would be a short run, but it would be very effective. It would be extraordinarily effective.

Out, out. You're out. You're out. Everyone out you're out everyone's out everyone you're all over 21 in attitude and intellect um and iq and so any anybody can be nominated to be the speaker of the house why would donald trump want to submit himself to that vote? What would what would be what would be the possible appeal of that? There are already I think there are still six or eight members of the House who voted to impeach him who are still serving in the House and a bunch more who would not like to have Donald Trump be the House speaker. I don't see any on the GOP side. I don't see any way that he would get there. So it's a I guess I'll put it like this. It's a job you have to run for. Right. You have to go run for them and then shield them. One of the reasons we have a joke of a Congress is that what the members want is to be protected from taking challenging votes. They want to bottle up the amendment process. They want to shut down the committees

and they want everything crafted in secret by gangs of aid or whatever in behind closed doors and then presented as fait accompli. You vote for this or die. The reason we have that stupid system that is antithetical to the way that a representative body is supposed to work. The reason we have that is because that's what the members want. They don't want to be forced to take hard votes. And how many House Republicans would like to have to vote on whether Donald Trump should be the Speaker of the House. Can you imagine how much damage that would do for people running in general elections or primary elections, both? And how you voted could blow you up with primary voters or could blow you up with general election voters. This is not something that Trump should want, and it's not anything that the House would

want. I mean, who knows? But my instincts say this is just Trump generating, like tweaking the PR machine to get even more. I mean, he's a genius at PR. And I've just this feels like that to me. And Gates and others sucking up to Trump. Right. Because what when Trump said shut the government down for Matt Gates, who very much wants to run for Florida governor or whatever with the blessing, with the imprimatur of Donald Trump. I did it, boss. Look, look, you said shut it down. When they wouldn't shut it down, we took Kevin McCarthy out. So I think a lot of that is just sucking up to Trump to try to get his favor.

It's so crazy because, of course, Matt Gaetz, you know, now he's very, very worried about spending, but he voted for all of Trump's spending increases to the tune of seven trillion. That was good. That was good deficit spending. This is bad deficit spending. That was good inflation. This is bad inflation. You got to you got to think about it. This is why. So we've got this situation over in the House. Hot mess. I mean, it's like there's no one to root for. There's no one to root for. Then you go out to presidential politics, which is what we wanted to get into with you. And you got, you know, the one guy who is, I mean, really to be gentle, senile, and the other guy to be gentle under 91 felony counts. Um, and very, very likely to be in jail in the next couple of years. Even if you don't think the charges are

worth much, you can't deny that he's in front of these far left juries, far left judges. Somebody is going to put him in jail. So it does seem very likely. So the, and, and the polls show that the vast majorities of Americans on both sides want different candidates. Well, you're not going to get it from the look of it. It doesn't look like Joe Biden's stepping aside anytime soon. And it doesn't look like Donald Trump is losing any steam. He's going up in the polls. So that's where Chris Dyerwalt comes in on The Megyn Kelly Show. And then we want to talk about exactly what's going to happen. So we're going to start on the Democratic side.

All right. Once again, I have written down my question. I've written them down my little note cards, Dyerwalt. Oh, dear. That's bad. Okay. Oh, dear. That's bad. OK. How late into this process? We're on the Democratic side. Can the Democrats sub out Joe Biden? They have. OK, so I want to thank my colleague at the American Enterprise Institute, Nate Moore, who helped me do the voluminous research because I knew, counselor, that you would come with real questions and would want real answers. I think a rough way to think about this is they have about a year, which is to say there

are different mechanisms that would be triggered along the way. But until October or at some point in September of the election year, there could be a replacement. The mechanism for how that replacement would take place differs as you go. And some, if you start at the early end, it's about an electoral process in the primaries, and then it moves to the convention, and then it moves to basically party leaders gathering together to make a selection. So let's say until the middle of September or October 2024, they could still sub out Joe Biden. And if they haven't done it by that date, it's Kamala Harris or whoever his running mate is. So one caveat to carry with all of this stuff is that state legislatures and state parties can change their rules as they go to accommodate exigent needs. Right. So you can, as we saw during covid state legislatures across the country, ripped up election rules. Republicans went some directions. Democrats went other directions about when you can vote and when you can't vote and when we're going to count the votes and all of that stuff.

So state legislatures have a lot, a lot of control. But basically, I put it like this. The Electoral College meets on the 7th is the date is the 17th of September 2024. So prior to that point, the question is, when have the ballots been printed and when can you get on the when can you make a change on the ballot? And and so the period there between middle September to Election Day, the party is stuck, right? Because if somebody went to prison, had the nomination taken from them or became incapacitated and could not serve. So it's going to be up to these electors, basically, as they gather, guided by whatever their state law says in terms of what they can do. So I think what would happen in the case of a vacancy,

if you had a person who had won the election but was not able to serve, that most electors would just flip to that person's running mate. I think and legislatures might direct- When you say won the election, are you still talking primary here? Because we're in September of 24 and I- Oh, I was a year ahead. sorry i was not i was not moving at the right pace i i was i wasn't sure i wasn't sure no no i'm saying i'm saying i'm sort of starting late in the game saying let's say the democrats stick with joe biden straight through all of 2024 and now we're fall of 24 and the election is about to happen the general election is about to happen. The general election is about to happen. And the names on the ballot for the Dems are Biden-Harris. And then September, October,

anytime before November 4th or whatever the election day is, Biden says, you know what? I'm out. Like he secured it. He's made sure it didn't go to RFKJ or somebody else. Like he's gotten it. He's on the ballot.

So is she. But that's basically him handing it to Kamala Harris at that point. Is that correct? OK, so think about it this way. You have between now and the beginning of January where Michigan and Texas, which are also big, early and important states in the nominating process. Those are coming up this year. But the way I think about it is you have the pre primary period where if Joe Biden stepped aside, it just becomes a primary. Right. And it becomes and we don't care. We don't care that those deadlines have passed because in this scenario, no one has met the deadlines. There's no name on there. And the states and the state parties can change the rules and say, OK, we're

waiving that. You can come in. You can file. We'll accept this. So up until that happens. Now you have the period between the beat for Republicans. It's the beginning of January or the middle of January, January 15th. But for both parties, it ends in basically the second week of March, at which point enough delegates. Yeah. At which you have Super Tuesday in Georgia. You have South Carolina, Super Tuesday, Georgia, bing, bang, boom. And by that point, enough delegates will have been awarded that if you haven't, if you're not ahead by then, you're not, it's very unlikely, it's extraordinarily unlikely that you can win outright going to the convention. So now we're in phase two, which is maybe. So let's say Joe Biden decided to retire or or Donald Trump decided to step aside.

But we stay on the Dem side for now. OK, OK. Well, OK. So let's say let's say let's say Joe Biden steps aside after the primaries are underway. Now, what are you going to have? You're going to have a contested convention because nobody's going to go into the convention with enough delegates to secure it on the first ballot. So at that point, we're in spring of 24. He can't just pass the baton to Kamala or anybody else. Like if he's won all these early contests, he does not yet have the ability to pass the baton. It's going to be a convention fight. Right. But then what then the next your next threshold and I want to get the date for you is I want to say it's. I think June, I think June is correct, but the final the final primary contest take place. It is June.

It's California, right? I remember this. I remember this when it was Bernie and Hillary and it was June of 16 when we were going to know. June 4th, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. California is early now. California is a Super Tuesday state. But those are the last primaries. So in the window between June 4th and the conventions and the conventions are set for July 15th for the Republicans and August 19th for the Democrats. So in that window between the beginning of June and for the Democrats, late August, nothing happens.

Right. There's no there's no way to affect those delegates in a concrete way between then and then. So that is the window in which, well, you want to play a what if game? Will you indulge me in a what if? Okay. So let's say Joe Biden is abducted by aliens on the 4th of July of next year. And he is taken away. He might be. They're coming across the southern border in droves by the day. There you go.

I'm thinking more. But I'm bumping. So he goes to Melmac, the planet Melmac, and is taken far away and is no longer in the race. What happens then? And what happens then is all of these Democratic delegates have to pick someone else. And what you would end up with at that convention would be an old fashioned, absolute battle for a presidential nomination. And it would be wild. It would be woolly. It would be horse trading because the delegates would all have already been picked.

But they would be unbound because their candidate was not available. This isn't this isn't that interesting because he's not going to be abducted by aliens in this in the real life scenario. What's happened here? He's become incapacitated. He's incapacitated. Right. He can't find his way to the convention. He is. He is. He becomes unable for whatever reason to accept the nomination and whether that he is. So that's interesting. So if it happens between now and August, his incapacitation for health reasons, it doesn't just go to Kamala, even though she's as of now his running mate. And we presume his running mate on all these early primaries. So between now and March, if he is incapacitated, it just becomes a primary, right? It just becomes a wild and woolly absolute primary fight. And Kamala Harris would get no very few bonus points for being his running mate. We saw this play out

in 1968 when Lyndon Johnson stepped aside and tried to grease the skids for Hubert Humphrey. Hubert Humphrey eventually did win, but only after, I mean, this is the election when Bobby Kennedy got assassinated after an incredibly tumultuous process that ended with a riot in the park across the street from the convention hall in Chicago. It was a catastrophe. And that kind of contest, I'm not saying that it would end in murder and violence, but that just to say the capacity of an incumbent president to ease the way for his vice president is minimal. And this this would be immediately contested. This would be immediately contested. And Democrats don't even like Kamala Harris that much. So it's not like she would have that track. So between now and March, it Biden were to become unable to serve, then it would be a delegate math

game. Who can win the most delegates in these states to go with the most bargaining chips to the convention? How do you get to Milwaukee? Are they? No, they're not Milwaukee. I forget. But how do you get to the convention with the most delgates are in chicago this year dems are in chicago a perfect historical rhythm right there for democrats not miss not missing a beat on historical rhythm so it they go to chicago and your goal would be to have the largest number the the most delegates possible, so that when you got there, you could have the best opening position. So that's the period, let's say, March to June. Can I just interrupt you? So you're saying whatever delegates are available, let's say he

bails after Super Tuesday in March. Right. And 40% of the delegates are available. Okay. Because he's already won 60, but now the whole contest comes down to those 40. That's right. And it comes down to what will the people who were, who, what will, what will the delegates who were sent to vote,

who were going to be sent to go vote for Joe Biden? What will they do now that they don't have to vote for Joe Biden? So what you'd have. So they're free for all that. They're, they're like open slate now and need to be persuaded. They need to be wined and dined. That's they need to be wined and dined and they need to be in coalitional interest groups naturally would form. And they would say, well, we like this and we like that. We haven't had a contested convention in the United States in a long time. You have to go back to 1972 just to get a convention where and in that case, it was for the vice president.

But the the Thomas Eagleton, who had already been chosen to be the running mate, had to leave for personal reasons. And Sergeant Shriver gets picked and he had to he had to win the delegates. Right. They actually had to vote and he had to be confirmed to do to do that. So we don't our people in both parties don't have much experience at doing this stuff. But in each of these scenarios that we describe, every hour it gets later, the more chaotic it would be right up until right up until 30 seconds after the convention. That's where it changes. And that's where if Biden were to step aside, he could have influence. And that's the magic moment. So leaving before the primary, I'm sorry, leaving before the convention would just throw the convention into chaos. Maybe you get what you want. Maybe you

don't get what you want. Maybe it's Liz Warren, right? Maybe it's a catastrophe. Maybe Democrats end up because you have a bunch of extremists who get their way or whatever, but it could be a really bad scene. But as soon as he secures the nomination, things change. And the universe of people who would be making the replacement gets smaller. And it goes basically like this, and we're going to stay with the Democrats. Here's the language. A special meeting to fill a vacancy on the national ticket shall be held on the call of the chairperson. What does that mean? Right. What chairperson?

DNC? The chairperson of the Democratic National Committee calls a meeting and they call a meeting of the members of the Democratic National Committee. And whoever a majority of members of the Democratic National Committee choose to be their nominee becomes their nominee. Now, that's a much more manageable group of people because those are people who are deeply invested in the party's success. And they're going to tend to be less ideological because they're politicians. Right. The people who populate the Democratic National Committee are current and former lawmakers, governors, senators. If Joe Biden shows up at the convention in Chicago in August and says, thank you so much, but no, then it's going to be up to a committee. It's not like for him to say this is the one I want to do it like it's a committee. And then that then the committee comes up with a name or I guess one name just to keep things orderly and then puts it out to all the delegates who have shown up. No, no, no, no. So what would happen is Joe Biden goes,

he doesn't say no, thanks. He says, I gratefully accept your nomination. And he leaves the stage. And then the next day he says, because of my doctor's orders, I will not be able to do this. And therefore I must remove myself. I, I, I, I rescind my acceptance and I will not stand for this office. Then the members of the democratic national committee, i'm sorry i don't know this off the top of my head but we're talking here about a couple hundred people two three hundred people then they convene they would meet right over there here in washington i assume maybe they'd go maybe they'd go someplace else but the delegates are gone there are no there are no more delegates because the convention is over and those delegates have gone home and they're not asked back. Now, if I'm Joe Biden and this is again, this is just a thought experiment. Let's

say I'm Joe Biden and I don't want to have to be president for four more years and I don't want to have to go through a general election campaign where I'm getting brick batted all of the time and embarrassing myself and I don't want to do it. This is the sweet spot. This is where, this is where you step aside. And it's the window between August and mid-September. You got a month basically that you could step aside and you, Joe Biden, if he wanted to do this, uh, I think is Jamie Harrison, chairman of the Democratic National Committee these days? I think it tells you something about how how unimportant, relatively speaking, party chair people are now. Debbie, because you had to know because they were powerful.

Now they're not so powerful. But in this case, you could certainly not to be a conspiracy bug, but you could certainly see Joe Biden calling Jamie Harrison to the White House and saying, I'm going to step aside. I think it ought to be Gavin Newsom or I think it ought to be Kamala Harris or I think it ought to be commander because he really gets tough on people, whatever Joe Biden might want, he would certainly be able to start counting noses in a much smaller group and in a smaller group of people who were more favorably disposed to him than the 2,000 people who were at the convention. So in that period, that six or eight week period, that's when you have the smallest number of people who are most deeply invested in the party's success where you could actually do it there. I don't think that's going to happen. But if I were writing the screenplay, this is where I would pick. If I were if I were writing the screenplay about how Joe Biden steps aside, that's where I'd do it. Well, because most people think I got to squeeze in a break, but most people think he doesn't want to step aside and it would take either Barack Obama coming over to him, putting the arm around the shoulder and saying, I'm telling you, it's time to go. Or it would take hunters going to jail unless you give him a pardon and then quietly leave stage left, you know, something extraordinary where he's kind of forced to do it. But you're saying even under those circumstances, the thing that makes the

most sense is to wait until he's gotten it. And that gives him in this cabal of powerful Democrats the most power to make sure the next person is what they think is the best person. That's right. And if it happens during the convention or between the previous time, you'd favor Harris to get it and that she'd get sympathy votes and that it would probably devolve to her, but it wouldn't be sure. But in this window, there would be a much smaller group of people and an opportunity to do it with a fresh start. Of course, that doesn't take into any consideration how the Democrats are going to get rid of the black woman and sub in someone else unless it's like Michelle Obama. Right. I don't know. Sonny Austin, who's also a black woman, says we're not interchangeable and is saying this is not a good plan.

You're if if the Democrats could convince Michelle Obama to do this. Can you imagine the stunning success that she would obtain? Because she wouldn't have to sit on the shelf. She wouldn't have to be there. People say, hey, wait a minute. This is the dumb thing you said before. This is what about this? What about that?

What about and she wouldn't have to run for it. But that a group of, you know, 150 people in a conference room somewhere could select her to be the Democratic nominee and that she would arrive right at the moment where the general election campaign begins. Oh, man, she would ride her. That would be that's why it would be that's why Doug Brunt should write this book because it probably won't happen, but it would be a really good book. Well, he's he's on to nonfiction now, but this is better than fiction if this actually happens. And what if what if you're still playing the identity politics game? A lot of people think that ultimately, you know, Kamala Harris is going

to go for that Senate seat in California. But that's she gets subbed out since nobody likes her, even the Democrats maybe knew some subs in. Maybe she goes back to governor in California. He subs in as the VP. You got the identity politics at the top and you got the future at the bottom of the ticket and boom, Bob's your uncle. All right, stand by. We got to do Republicans. This is all fascinating.

I mean, this shit could happen. Like that's what's crazy about this discussion. We're going to do Republicans next and that's even more exciting and interesting and also seemingly impossible. Don't go away. This just in, I have been arrested. Chris has been arrested. So we'll get back to you from our prison cells. All the best people are getting arrested. Trump's arrested. Hunter's arrested. Our friend Lawrence Fox is arrested on and on. it goes. All right. So we have two minutes

here and I want to ask you a quick question before we take our deep dive into the Republicans. R.F.K.J. is expected to announce he's going to run as an independent because he's getting the boot on the forehead from the Democrats in his attempt to run for the Democratic nomination. A lot of debate in the news this week over who does that help and who does that hurt more. So is this a win for Dems? Does he take more votes from the GOP side or is it a win for the Republicans? Does he take more votes from the Dems side? Well, it may not matter to anybody because if he just runs as an independent, he won't be able to get on the ballot and it won't matter. But if he runs as a libertarian, which there are some substantial hints that he might,

he'd get tons and tons of ballot access and the libertarians are excited about it. There were enough libertarian votes in 2020 that could have thrown the election into a 269-269 tie if they would have gone for Republicans. RFK, as a libertarian, would most assuredly do more damage

on the Republican side than he would on the Democratic side. And this would be a big win for Democrats. Because his support among Democrats is relatively low. I think it's like 14 percent. But on the Republican side, there's a lot of open mindedness toward him and fandom. Yes. And especially because he lines up on vaccine stuff and he lines up on deep state stuff. All of those things much more with the MAGA Trump community than he does with Democrats. And if he were in the race.

If you're a MAGA, you're going for Trump. You're not leaving Trump for RFKJ. many votes do you think will decide the election in Wisconsin? And how many votes do you think will decide it in Georgia and in Pennsylvania and in Michigan and in Arizona? If we have a replay of 2020 and you have similarly small margins? And I just would I should also say these are protest votes, not votes for president. These are people who are saying I can't vote for either of these people and I want to send a message. And the message that RFK Jr. would send would be ideologically aligned to some degree, but it would mostly be a yawp in the face of the two parties to say, I don't like how anybody treated him. I don't like how this is going for this guy. And he at least wants to shake things up. It's like you said at the top of the show, that's the, I just want to puke party. That's my party. So I see where you're going. Stand by,

we'll pick it up there. Star Walt stays with us. GOP is next. One follow up question from my my crack EP, Steve Krakauer. He wanted to know what if Joe Biden wins? What if he wins the general election with Kamala as his number two? But but then he says, I'm voluntarily stepping down because it's apparently not entirely clear that she would just move into the top spot. If he dies, we all know what happens. Abducted by abducted by aliens. Joe Biden. Joe Biden steps aside. Joe Biden is in any way unable to serve. So then we're talking about Election Day to inauguration day, right? So the election has taken place because we know what happens after the inauguration. And then we break that period down into the time between December 17th when the electors cast their votes,

and then of course, January 17th. So basically, prior to the electors casting their votes, it's up to it would be up to the state. So if the vacancy occurred before December 17th, it would be up to the states to tell their and the legislatures could convene. We, again, saw this during covid emergency sessions of legislatures to gather and direct who who can they vote for? Who do they have to vote for? What is their obligation? So that's a state question. That's a state question before December 17th.

After the electoral votes are counted, that is all Congress. That is all entirely up to Congress on January 6th of 2025 to make a determination. What's a valid elector? What's not a valid elector? And if nobody has, so let's play out this scenario. No, I get it. I heard enough. It's a headache.

It's a massive headache. It's not something that the Democrats would want. So it's not going to happen. All right, let's do GOP. First of all, the big buzz, Glenn Youngkin, underdog. Here I come to save the day. Yeah. I know that, you know, you don't like what you have over here on the B team. You don't like DeSantis. You don't like the vague. You don't like Pence. You don't like Nikki enough, but you might like me, the 500 millionaire, um, who ran Carlisle group

and, um, who signed a letter in support of the Southern poverty law center, which dubbed Ben Carson, a terrorist and hates moms for liberty. But I am here and I am going to be the one. These are just a couple of things. Glenn Young kid is fine. I like him, but I'm just saying this is what's going to come up about him. Um, and there are still party establishment folks who think he is the underdog. So let's just say, OK, here he is or he isn't. How late could he get in? So, yeah, you you correctly, counselor, divided it into the lead. So there's the legal slash operational component. And then there's the social psychological.

What how would voters respond to it? And how would voters respond to a question is open and I'm happy to discuss. But I doubt that there is actually that that thirst out there for basically. And I don't mean this is a slight to either party, an improved Romney, right? A governor, private equity guy, competent, rich, successful governor of a blue state who is going to come in and do this. I don't see that energy in the Republican Party, but who knows? But if he did, basically it goes like this. he would have already missed the new hampshire filing deadline so yunkin says he's not he's he's not entertaining and i'm going to give

glenn yunkin the benefit of the doubt that what glenn yunkin is really trying to do is raise as much money and get as much attention as possible for uh his midterm elections in Virginia and that he is doing everything he can to get all these billionaires and get all the media attention possible to win those to win those seats so that he can have a very successful second half of his term. Virginia is a one term only state for governors and that he wants to have a real bell ringer. And by the way, that would put him in good stead to run for the Republican nomination the next time around. But let's say that he waits until afterwards the Republicans win the Virginia legislature, take over both chambers, and he says, I want to get in. He's already missed New Hampshire and he's already missed. Well,

Nevada doesn't really count this time because they're all screwed up. They're having both a caucus and a primary. It's a disaster. Won't matter. So you could live without Nevada. But living without New Hampshire seems hard. And then he would have to hit. Michigan has a filing deadline on November 10th.

So we don't know about South Carolina, or I don't know any of your listeners who know exactly what the filing deadline for the Republican Party in South Carolina is. Remains a little unclear to me because it's a party-run primary that takes place on a Saturday. And I think there's plenty of flexibility for getting into South Carolina. So let's say he's not on the ballot in New Hampshire. Here's what he could do. He could cut a deal with somebody who is on the ballot. He could cut a deal with Asa Hutchison and he could go campaign in New Hampshire and he could say a vote for Asa is a vote for whomever, pick whoever you want. Somebody who is who has dropped out and say a vote for this person is a vote for me. This is how we're going to show our strength there. And he could go campaign in New Hampshire

that way. He could he could do that. So that's a way to be in the discussion. But've, they've screwed themselves up. So you're going to have 32 days between the, you have, uh, you have Iowa, New Hampshire, bing bang, and then you have 32 days. Now in that 32 day period, who do you think is going to be at the, at the top of the discussion? The people who have won or done well, the, the, the value of those first two contests goes up a great deal because you're going to need momentum to sustain you through this long period. And then you go to South Carolina and then whammo, right after that, it's Super Tuesday. So it takes forever. And then it happens very, very quickly. And by that point, it's something like 40 percent of all of the delegates available are going to be are going to be decided by Super Tuesday.

And could Glenn Young can conceivably before Thanksgiving declare figure out a way around New Hampshire? Yeah, I mean, he could. It's certainly possible. What effect would that have on the Republican race? I don't think Glenn Young would take any votes away from Trump. I don't think there are many. I mean, maybe there's a handful. No, I think the thinking is he would be the guy to consolidate the anti-Trump vote. So who's going to tell Nikki Haley that, right? Who's going to be the one that says to Nikki Haley? Who's going to mansplain to Nikki? Exactly. Who's going to tell her, hey, you're doing great. You're really on the move here. And there's a new poll, by the way, out today from New Hampshire.

And she has leapfrogged over Ron DeSantis and Chris Christie. She's sucked up a bunch of their vote share and she has moved up into a strong second place. Well, strong. And we have to remember when these are relative terms, when Trump is, you know, got 40 or whatever percent of the vote in New Hampshire. But who's going to tell Nikki Haley, well, you'll have to leave. It's Thanksgiving and the vote is on the on January 15th. So we're basically two months away or less than two months away. And you're just going to have to drop out and you can't go to Iowa because it's Glenn Youngkin's turn to do this because we like him better than you. That doesn't sound like Nikki Haley. And it certainly doesn't sound like the point that we raised an hour ago. It doesn't sound like the Republican Party. Right. It sounds like the Democratic Party where they fix everything so that Bernie Sanders loses the Republicans. They don't do that. Right. The Republicans are in the best sense of the best way to think about it is they're an individualistic, strongly independent minded group of people, and they deeply resent being told what to do and how to do it.

They have railed against the establishment and people in power for as long as there has been an establishment and people in power. And even the people in power act like they're not even in the establishment. Right. This is how bad it is in the eyes of Republicans to be part of the power structure. The idea that you're going to parachute this guy in late and that a bunch of Republicans are going to say, you know what? Forget Nikki Haley. I like this guy. I don't think that sounds I don't think that sounds correct, but I think it would probably have its version of Michelle Obama. They, they don't, they, there isn't an underdog in the wings, Yunkin or otherwise they have the gorilla and he's winning in all the polls by a lot. So let me ask you, Starwell, cause you watch this stuff for a living. I had Dave Rubin on the show on Monday.

He's a definite DeSantis guy. And he said, you know, the polls, how many times have the polls been wrong? And I said, Dave, not by 50 points, not by 40 points. There's never been somebody who lost the nomination after leading in all these states and state polls and national polls by 40, 50 points consistently. And his lead just builds. It builds by the day. I just don't see a scenario in which Trump doesn't become the nominee, putting tabling his legal problems for the purposes that you just enumerated trump is facing all of these problems particularly that documents case down in florida he's got all of these legal problems stacked up like jets on the runway at jfk fogged in they're just they're just waiting and if you're ron desantis or nikki haley it'd be pretty if most ambitious Republican politicians would say, I'd like I'd like a shot at that second slot right there.

I'd like to be the lady in waiting. Yeah, I'll be in second place because this could definitely end badly for Trump. And the only other thing I would say is there is some softening and softness in Trump's numbers. Right. And part of the problem that Trump has is, of course, he wants to say, I'm up by going to win this? Who's going to win that? It creates its own center of gravity. Trump's huge advantage is he's basically running as an incumbent. He's an enormously heavy favorite because he's essentially running as an incumbent. He's got the party apparatus behind him. And he has 100% name identification. And many Republicans feel that he was wronged grievously in 2020. And so they're sticking with their guy. And that all redounds to Trump's benefit. But there will

be attention and action and interest around these other folks with more debates. And as the contests get closer, and the last thing I would just remind you, as you know, just as well as anybody, Iowa and New Hampshire have never in the history of modern nominating contests ever voted for the same Republican candidate. They have never agreed one time. New Hampshire has a better record, but what Iowa does is they like to what is what they did to Trump in 2016. Oh, are we all voting for this guy? Well, we're voting for that guy. What do you think about that? So Iowa likes to be contrary to everyone, and New Hampshire likes to be contrary to Iowa. And the possibility that Iowa would deliver a, and by the way, what Iowa basically does is calls the field. So you have a bunch of people hanging around the hoop,

hoping they can get a tip in. And after Iowa, you say, well, you play sixth in Iowa. So I don't think we need to really talk about what you're doing going forward anymore. So that starts the thinning. And then New Hampshire cuts it off hard. Now we're down to two or three people. And then we go into that 32 day period until South Carolina. And then it's Katie bar the door. What could happen in that 32 day period? Look, if the election were held today, if it was one national election and it was held today, Trump would win in a walk. He would dominate it. Absolutely. But that's not how they do this. They're going to have a bunch of people stand around in high school gymnasiums and fire halls on a freezing night in January to caucus and talk about viability thresholds. And then they're going to go up into

meeting halls in New Hampshire and they're going to vote in New Hampshire. We're talking about a very small number of people. We're talking about, I think Donald Trump got the nomination going through South Carolina. It's like 135,000 votes. That's what got him off and running into Super Tuesday in 2016. We're not talking about that many people. We're talking about a lot of events that are going to intervene. And we're talking about that 32 day window. Yeah, Donald Trump, I give him a three out of five, four, maybe four, three.

I'll give it three and a half out of five likely to be the Republican nominee. They're they're very good odds, but they're not prohibitive. And if I were a Republican, I'd want to get in the fight. So that leads me to let's say let's say he gets it right. He the polls are right. The Iowans go for him. The New Hampshire rights go for him. He's on a roll and he gets the nomination, you know, or he's like got so many delegates. He's unbeatable. You know, you can see it's his his for the taking. And then he's actually thrown in jail, actually thrown in jail. I had Mark Levin on the show last week. He's a brilliant, brilliant legal mind. And he was saying there is a very good chance Trump could be thrown in jail, especially by

Judge Chutkin in D.C., who hates Trump. Maybe that's strong, but she doesn't like Trump. You can tell that from her prior. I don't hates Trump. Maybe that's strong, but she doesn't like Trump. You can tell that from her prior. I don't think Trump likes her either. He's not a fan. And this is D.C. that went, what, 92 percent for Joe Biden? You know, the jury pool is going to be a nightmare for him. And while the January 6th charges are not very strong compared to like the documents case down in Mar-a-Lago, where his jury pool is likely to be better for him. Um, it, it may be enough of a heartstring pull for a DC jury that the prosecution, Jack Smith gets it across the line and he wins and he wins the case against Trump. So if that happens, she could put him in jail, even pending appeal. She could say,

no, I will not stay your mandate to go to prison, federal prison pending appeal. She could say, no, I will not stay your mandate to go to prison, federal prison pending appeal. I don't have to do that. I'm not doing that. So he could be in jail. That's just one. I'm just picking one case of the four. Right. By the time we actually vote on November, whatever, 2024. Do the Republicans have and that trial said to take place the day before Super Tuesday, March 4th. So do the Republicans at that point when they're like, OK, I love him, but this is bullshit like I can't. We're going to lose if our if our candidate is serving a prison sentence. I know I love him. I know these guys love him. But I know those suburban soccer moms who screwed us over the last time. They're not going to love this. They were barely coming over our way to begin with because they didn't like the transing of

the kids or whatever it is, but that they're not. So now what? Is there any option, any option at that point? Yeah. I mean, look, these parties are not governmental agencies. They are not governed by the law. They are private nonprofit entities that abide by their own rules. Let's do that hypothetical. Donald Trump is imprisoned and he is sent to jail pending sentencing prior to Election Day. Could the Republican National Committee take the nomination away from him? Yeah, they certainly could. They have extraordinary power. The members of that committee who are, by the way, elected by Republicans across the country, they're chosen either some of them directly elected on the primary ballot to be committee men and committee women and some chosen in state conventions.

But they're chosen and they can convene and they have extraordinary power to change rules and blow stuff up to do that. The question is, would they have the political will to do it? Because if the Republican rank and file was sticking with Trump, you can't abandon our guy at the moment of his greatest need. He needs us now more than ever in his fight, and you cannot walk away from him. Who on that committee wants to be the one that said, yeah, I hear you, but we got to dump him. I know you voted for him, and I know that you want us to stand with him, but we're going to

have to dump him right now. Let me just say one thing as a level setting premise. The Republican Party is so divided that I don't know how they win a general election. I've never seen a party that hates itself as much as this party hates itself. Yes, you're so right. They are just at each other's throats. They and so in a scenario where Donald Trump gets the nomination, a quarter of the Republican Party is very soft in their support. Right. They're very soft in their support. They're anti MAGA. They hate him.

They don't want that. OK, flip it around. Nikki Haley, the apotheosis of Nikki Haley, and she pulls it off. Right. She slingshots past Trump. She wins in Iowa, goes on, gets a win in her home state of South Carolina, and gets into the convention and barely wins. Are those MAGA voters going to say, ah, it was a tough fight, but you won fair and square, and now I will come and support you and your globalist elite? No, they will say, I will burn in hell before I will vote for Nikki Haley. I'll be voting for RFK Jr. and you can go pound sand.

So that's the fundamental. What you saw in the House is the fundamental problem that the Republican Party has. They hate each other. And when you hate the Democrats don't like they're not excited about Joe Biden, but they don't hate Joe Biden. They're not they're not they're not angry at Joe Biden. They're depressed because he's so old and he seems so feeble and they want somebody new and they want something different, but they'll vote for him.

That's the thing. So the more establishment Republicans, they will vote for Trump. I think they will vote for Trump if they have to. They might have to hold their noses to do it, but they would definitely rather vote for Trump than lose to a Democrat. But core MAGA, you cannot say the same there. It's Trump or bust Trump or die. And so that, so the Republicans really have no choice here. If Trump wants it, if Trump is saying, I still am viable and want it, I'm not ready to pass the baton to DeSantis or anybody else. The Republicans have no choice if they want to win the general, but to make it Trump. We're I mean, I'd put it a slight. Well, here's what poll after poll after

poll says about the state of the Republican Party. About 35 percent of the Republican Party is Trump. Mega, massive, mega. And about 25 percent is anti-Trump. And my friend, pollster Whit Ayers, coined a term which is really good here. He says you've got always Trump and never Trump. And then you've got always Republican. You have all of these voters who just want a Republican. They just want the Republican Party to win. They just want the Republican Party to succeed. Those are the people that rank and file in the House who were saying, maybe I'm not in

love with Kevin McCarthy, but like, just stop this, like, just move on. And the way that a person could win the Republican nomination would basically be get to the point where they have a majority of those always Republicans in a scenario, just as you described, where they say, hey, Trump did a bunch of good stuff, but he's a loose cannon and he's brought a lot of this on himself and we can't drag this into a general election and he may be in prison so it's just it's just too much so what you would see would be intensification among the core core group right the that 15 or 20 percent that have been with him from the beginning and the wilder the crazier the better they like it more because it's more evidence that he's fighting the system and the harder they more because it's more evidence that he's fighting the system. And the harder they come after him, the more evidence that he is that, you know, he's like

the John Dillinger character, like he's taking it, he is fighting the man. So those people would intensify in their support, but other people would start to peel off. And then the dynamic shifts. I don't know. I don't know how, um, I don't know how the Republicans can can beat Joe Biden. But I also don't know how Joe Biden can win because he is so old and everybody knows how old Joe Biden is. And just not to editorialize, but I am stunned by the selfishness of Joe Biden. I really am surprised. I frankly am surprised that he could not find it within himself for the good of his party and the good of his country to have said. And what a gift it would have been to himself and to the way Washington worked if he would have said the day after the midterm elections. Well, folks, we've had some fun.

We've had a bunch of laughs. And now I'm going to try to balance the budget and do whatever I can here in these final two years. But you guys are going to have to sort this out and pick another candidate. And his belief that only he can defeat Donald Trump and only he can do this is a really kind of depressing degree of it's almost Gatesian. He's a person of a very different character than Matt Gates. But it is a kind of solipsism and selfishness that is breaking our politics when people believe only I can do it. I'm the only person who can do this and I have to stay. And I think it's been a really unfortunate choice. So to sum up, everyone is arrested. And I think I speak for Stierwald when I say we also want to puke. There we go. American politics. It's the jail food. It's very illuminating on a number of levels. It's been great having you. Thanks for doing so much homework for us, Chris Stierwald. Great be with you. All right. And coming up next, somebody who could be arrested at any moment, Calvin Robinson, who

now is fired from GB News for what? I don't know. But we're going to talk about this crazy ass controversy across the pond. Stay tuned. Joining me now, Father Calvin Robinson. Calvin is a deacon in the Free Church of England. And as of today, a now former GB News presenter, contributor. GB News is sort of, it's not Fox News in UK, but it's more fair

and balanced certainly than the BBC and these other offerings. Now, Calvin was first suspended, but now as of today, he's officially fired from the UK network. His sin? He offered some support for fellow GB News contributor Lawrence Fox and presenter, that's how they refer to anchors over there, Dan Wooten. Lawrence was booked to come on this show today, but he couldn't because he was arrested this morning. All right, we're going to get into all of it. Calvin, great to see you. Thank you for coming back on. How are you doing? All things considered, Megan. I'm okay. Thank you. Okay. Right, right. Good caveat. Or just to get the audience up to speed in case they haven't

been following it, what happened was on GB News, where you regularly appear, I regularly appear on Dan Wooden's show, which is the most popular show on the entire network. It was. Lawrence Fox, right, right. Lawrence Fox appeared. It was two Tuesdays ago and responded to this woman, this female journalist, Ava Evans, who had made comments that were dismissive of male suicide. It wasn't like a screed she went on, but it was offensive enough that a lot of people were like, well, and she felt the need to try to tweet and kind of take it down a notch after she said it. She knew she had stepped in it. She seemed very dismissive of this massive problem. It's the number one cause of death for

men under 50 in the UK and in America. We lose 35 men, 35,000 men a year to this. And she was kind of like, ah, we don't need a minister of men. All right. This is just a way of engaging in the culture wars. I've played it a couple of times already. The audience can go look it up if they want to hear it again. So Lawrence goes on GB with Dan in response and Lawrence knows somebody who's died by suicide. And this is an issue that's near and dear to him and says the following. Here it is. Thought seven. Show me a single self-respecting man that would like to climb into bed with that woman ever, ever. Who wasn't an incel. who wasn't a cucked little incel. That little woman has been fed, spoon-fed oppression day after day after day after day, starting with the lie of the gender

wage gap. And she sat there and I'm going like, if I met you in a bar and that was like sentence three, chances of me just walking away are just huge. We need powerful, strong, amazing women who make great points for themselves. We don't need these sort of feminist 4.0. They're pathetic and embarrassing. Who'd want to shag that? Oh, Lawrence. Well, look, she... I'm just going to provide a touch of balance from her because she did actually respond to this earlier today, saying that she regretted her comments, but she didn't apologize. Yes. So there you go.

And she's a very beautiful woman, Lawrence. Very beautiful. There you go. Okay's a very beautiful woman, Lawrence. Very beautiful. There you go. Okay. I was sitting there. I was up next on Dan's show that night. I heard it all in my ear, sitting from this very desk. I knew it was a controversial thing to say.

I was not offended. I just, I wasn't. I mean, I've said to the audience, if you go back and take a look at some of the things, just Google, just Google Megyn Kelly, Trump, Breitbart. Do that and see like it. It's not a nice piece of being in the public eye, but it is a piece of being in the public eye. And while yes, about women, it may be like your looks or whether they want to shag you or not. And about men, it's probably something diminishing in an equal type of way. Um, in any event, it's not lovely, but it happens. And I was not offended

by what he said. I wasn't. Sorry. Not sorry. So you were you got out there and defended Dan because Dan got sucked up in this and defended Lawrence like take a breath. You know that he said something. Stop having such a meltdown. Right. You weren't defending the remarks, but you were defending your friends and saying, could we take a breath here? We're treating this like he sexually assaulted this woman. And the headlines in the UK have been over the top. The uniform reaction against Lawrence and Dan has been breathtaking. Such an overreaction.

And Lawrence did come out and say, I'm sorry, I didn't express myself the way I should have, but my point stands, I'm still mad. Well, today it was official. They fired him. GB News fired him. And you got fired. You got fired too. What was your sin, Calvin? My sin was loyalty. My sin was actually believing in free speech on the channel that calls itself the home of free speech. But what it means is the home of free speech. But no, not that speech.

I also was there that night, Megan. I was sat in the green room and I was watching it live. I thought, oh, Lawrence, you know, because he could have destroyed her because she was in the wrong. She's a vile misandrist who hates men. And she's well known for this on all of her commentary. You know, people can check out her Twitter. She's said plenty of times, oh, I wouldn't shag him. You know, she's well known for this on all of her commentary you know people can check out her twitter she's said plenty of times oh i wouldn't shag him you know she's used the exact words that lawrence used many times i don't think lawrence i don't think he should have gone

to her level because that made him look like the bad guy whereas he could have totally destroyed her argument because this is about men's mental health and it is the biggest killer of men in this country suicide no one seems to care we have a minister for women we don't have a minister for men and people like this able woman don't think we should have one because men are well worthless in her eyes and that's the story that should have been told that's the sadness but every single news outlet over here is saying lawrence fox misogyny you know i was interviewed today by sly news they didn't say why were you fired they didn't want to care about if dan was coming back it's just like wasn't lawrence fox really misogynistic it's like for goodness sake the hysteria you know we've had on our broadcast men being talked about in the exact same way we've had people saying wouldn't shag him

nothing no one cares again so it's not about equality which is what feminism says it's about right the equality between men and women it's not about that it's about women being superior to men and men being a lesser half of the species and that's very sad because we need men we live in a society of fatherlessness a society of men's mental health on the decline we need to fix all of that and this is not the approach to do it so so i was disappointed in lawrence for taking that line and i said i said this to him but i backed him 100 and thought you know he has a right to do it he has a right to say if that's what he believes and if we say we're for free speech surely he should be able to say nothing illegal no incitement to violence didn't break any laws so why cancel

him suspend him and fire him but worse than that they suspended dan too and they're gonna fire dan i'll put i'll put money on it right now they're gonna fire dan more difficult for them to fire him because he's in a two-year contract, which me and Lawrence weren't in. But all Dan did is host. And you saw he tried to provide some balance. He was clearly caught off guard. And he's Lawrence's friend as well. So he doesn't want to drop him in it. So there are all these things to consider. But why is the question? Why did they want to fire Lawrence? Why did they want to fire Dan? And why did they fire me? Yeah, that is the question. And I know you've got some thoughts on it. I want to get into exactly what you think is happening at GB because I too have been there

from the beginning. I mean, you've been there from the beginning. Dan's been there from the beginning. I mean, I only go on once a week, so I'm not this integral, but I care about the thing. I've been doing it because I care about the mission and I'm concerned about what's happening right now. I can't believe that three of my favorite people there are out in one fell swoop over this, over this, you know, one moment, which again, some people may find it offensive. I didn't, um, whatever. I have a very thick skin. Um, so then today Lawrence was booked to come on to talk about this and he got arrested. Now he's going to make all these references in the clip that I'm about to show that I just want to bring the audience up to speed on something else. So Lawrence did a couple of shows over the past couple of days, including he went on the show of Majid Nawaz. He used to come on my Fox show all the time. about this weird initiative over in Great Britain to crack down on emissions coming out of people's cars. And you'll correct me if I'm wrong, but they have some sort of a program where now you can't have certain cars because they put out too many emissions and they put these cameras

up all over the UK trying to spy on different areas to see if said car comes into said region. And if it does, they'll take a picture of your license plate and send you a fine for breaking the emissions. I mean, it's crazy the amount of state intrusion into your life now. And there's this group that's sort of, they're protesting it, I guess you'd call it civil disobedience, running around taking down the cameras. And Lawrence was trying to say, I would join them. I don't know how the discussion spun into this, but I think he was just talking about the overreach of the state because the government is getting involved in his case. Ofcom is trying to punish him, which oversees UK media. And they're trying to crack down on everybody's emissions and what kind of car you

drive and whether you've driven in the right place or the wrong place. So he's making a reference to it. And here, as the police are in his house this morning, which is why he's not here with us live right now, he makes a reference to it. Watch. Morning, guys. I'm in London's knife ridden capital city where a 15 year old girl was stabbed to death with a sword. We've got one, two, one, two, you can show them, one, two, another three upstairs, stealing, going through my house to intimidate me because this is what the police are, they don't police with consent anymore,

they police with fear and intimidation, that is the stardy police force that we've got nowadays, instead of being on the streets solving crimes like the murder of the poor 15 year old girl they're on all over social media but i'd take it the um ula scam cameras outside of london are a complete the outer ula stone is a complete scam there's no scientific evidence sadiq khan rubbished the evidence and had it rewritten to serve his own needs. No one voted it. It's the beginning and bringing in of a surveillance state. And he's trying to make noises so that I can't say that it's the beginning of a surveillance state. And these boys are the Stasi, Stasi. Bless them. So have a lovely day. I'm going to spend my day in the clink, innit? My goodness. So that's him this morning as he's being arrested

and he was arrested. He was charged reportedly with conspiring to commit criminal damage to ULEZ cameras. U-L-E-Z. It stands for ultra low emission zones. Again, put in place across London. If a car drives into the zone and does not meet emission standards, it gets a daily charge about $15 U S money. Uh, and the ULES cameras record a car's plate numbers and so on. So this is what the controversy was just to expand, forgive me one more soundbite, Calvin. It was Majid Nawaz's show where he made the comments that apparently led to this this morning. And this is where you'll hear him reference these cameras a couple of times here too. Take a listen, Sot5. I would encourage mass, mass removal of the surveillance state

because once it's there, you cannot remove it. Are you interested in testing the law around this if some people get arrested? I would be happy to be arrested myself. So, you know, I won't be, when I go out and take their cameras down, which I will be doing, I won't be i won't be when i go out and take their cameras down which i will be doing i won't be i will be taking my phone with me so they know exactly where i am because the babe runners are clever they you know they look they're they know what they're doing but

i i would happily sit there and go sit and call go who voted for this what's your evidence for the outer london clean air zone what's your evidence for that why are you doing this you know i'd sit there and do it, but I do that. I've got several court cases going on, as you know. But yeah, I would. So that's him saying,

I object. I like this Blade Runners group that's coming around, taking down the cameras, and I'd be happy to join them. That's what got him arrested on conspiracy, conspiracy to commit criminal damage

to the cameras. I looked it up. The UK law, that law requires the very first thing, an agreement between two or more parties to commit a criminal offense, an agreement. Who did he agree with? Who did he agree with? I didn't hear Blade Runner say, join our cause. Let's do it. We'll do it on Wednesday. We'll meet you there at eight. Nothing. It was saying something. It was aspirational. This is what his defense lawyer is going to argue. You cannot, I think even in the UK, be arrested for thought crimes, for thinking, I will do it. I'd like to make an example out of myself. I would like to challenge this law. I'm going to go out there, even saying I'm going to go out there and cut him down. No, that's not a crime. There has

to be an agreement to have a conspiracy toward anything. There wasn't. So what's this all about? Well, it's pre-crime, isn't it? He said he might commit it. So they're going to arrest him just in case he does. It's like something out of Minority Report. But I wish you were right. But actually, in this country, you can get arrested for thinking things. You know, Isabel Vaughan Spruce, a friend of mine,

was arrested for silently praying in her head not too long ago. Thankfully, the police dropped the case. So it didn't end up going to trial. But if it does, and it will do at some point, we'll find out, can you be arrested for what you're thinking in this country? Because they're trying to clamp down on it. And I think the thing with Lawrence was that they knew he'd stream, they knew he'd put all this on social media, and it's a shot across the bow. It's a warning to these Blade Runners, great name, by the way, that they go around. And it is civil disobedience, because they're saying,

we did not consent to this CCTV everywhere. we did not consent to this cctv everywhere we did not consent to this big brother state and it goes against the science that you're saying it backs up so we're going to take them down and do our duty as civil servants of our of our land and i think what the police are doing what the state are doing is saying how can we clamp down on this well law, Lawrence Fox is a big voice. He's got a big profile. If we arrest him, maybe it will scare a few people off. And he's in the mix right now. He's been all over the papers and the tabloids and everywhere as the latest demon, meant to absolutely demolish and have absolutely no thought for his well-being, his mental health, what this kind of a crackdown does on him. That's not relevant to anybody. He just needs to be fired and ruined over that one segment that we just showed. That's it. And you too, by the way, you can be ruined. I heard you this morning saying,

I actually need this job. I have a rent to pay and I was dependent upon my salary from GB. No one cares, Calvin. None of your friends there. No one. No one does care. That's a good point. Lawrence doesn't actually know he's been fired yet. I've been keeping in touch with people who are down there in Croydon and he's locked up. He doesn't know that he's been fired. But the moment he gets out, finally gets out of jail, he's going to have the news that he's been fired from his job as well. And you're right, no one cares about men's mental health. And my biggest point is at GB News, the so-called home of free speech, so-called against cancel culture, how many of the high profile figures there have stood up

for Lawrence, Dan, or myself? How many of them have said, this isn't right. If one falls, we all fall. Let's gather together. The left do it. When Gary Lineker was in trouble at the BBC over here, the state broadcaster, all of the presenters refused to go on the show. And you know what? They brought him back. Doesn't happen on the right. We don't stick together. And it's a great shame because we can't protect free speech. We can't protect any freedoms unless we stick together. And people are more concerned about their own career objectives, about how much money they can earn and all these things that are important, but not as important as our freedoms. Why did they tell you you were getting fired? I mean, I saw your tweet defending

Dan and saying we need to be pro free speech. And you were critical of the decision to suspend Dan and Lawrence, but it wasn't a barn burner. So what did you do? It was my tweets. And they're saying I brought the company into disrepute. But my rebuke to that would be, no, you guys are bringing the company into disrepute by firing us all for nothing and all I did was stand up for my colleagues and the criticism that I put out against the station was in favor of the station I believe in the project that we all started at the beginning a home for for people that feel like they have no voice the silent majority in this country who've been disregarded by the metropolitan liberal elites. We've got politicians, we've got mainstream media all ganging together from their own Westminster bubble on net zero this and Black

Lives Matter that and critical race theory this and gender theory that and drag queens reading to children. It's all abominable to the rest of us. Most people in this country believe in traditional British values, traditional Christian values, and there's no home for people like that in politics. So the whole idea of GB News was to create a home for those people in the media. And now that home has been snatched away, who's going to talk about the important topics? Who's going to talk about the sanctity of life or the importance of fatherhood or marriage being between one man and one woman or the fact that drag queens should not be talking to kids. They shouldn't be sexualizing young kids. Who's going to bring up these topics if not for us? That's the problem. And we're seeing already,

you know, Tuesday nights is the night that you and I are usually on Dan Wharton's show. Last night was Tuesday night. The ratings were nearly half. People aren't tuning in now without us. And that's a great shame, not just for GB News, but for the whole idea of having a center right voice in the media, a different perspective and shifting the dial in public discourse. It doesn't exist now. It's so crazy because I've always said on cancel culture, it's not enough. If all you can muster is to not join the mob, okay, we'll take it. But what would be better is if you would stand up against the mob, a tweet, anything to say what you're doing is wrong. You don't have to defend the conduct, but just to say, we're not for this, you know, the absolute ruination of somebody because of one errant

comment. And that's what you try to do. So the fact that you lost your job because you refused to join the mob and tried to stand up for free speech and for two guys who have been integral to GB's success, it's just deeply wrong what happened. And Dan, Dan is their most successful presenter. Dan did nothing on that clip. He Dan, you know, there was a little chuckle and then he had to issue this. You know, it was a groveling hostage statement. It was very, very clearly written by a PR agent. I'm here to tell you, I guarantee you that was written by a PR agent and said, I'm deeply

sorry. And I didn't recognize what Lawrence was saying. Dan's trying to save his job. Everybody knows that, but it's not going to work. He's probably going to get fired too. And the UK, the problem, Calvin, is that UK hasn't yet exploded with independent media exactly in the way that the United States has. So like the podcast Digital Lane isn't as robust as we would like it to be there.

You're right. You're absolutely right. And that's what we need to do. That's what I'm going to launch my own independent thing. And I think that hopefully Dan would do the same and hopefully Lawrence will do the same. We have to have more voices out here that aren't controlled. Ofcom is the government regulatory body for broadcast media, and they are the big brother of broadcast. They determine what can be said and what can't be said. And you may have heard me mention before, but over COVID, they said you can't question or undermine public health bodies. So they're censoring what we can discuss. They're

censoring the conversations. We can't say, is this vaccine really safe? We can't say, is lockdown a good idea or is it going to be worse for young people locked away in abusive homes, et cetera? Are these masks effective or are they going to cause the spread of germs? We can't ask these questions. They said no. And this is the problem with our state established media. So we do need, you're right, we need more independent broadcasters from the center, right, but from across the spectrum. And we need to stick together. And if we don't, there's no hope for this country. So if you did launch, let's say you, and let's get Mark Stein going too, because he also got the move from GB. We've talked to him about it. If you launch your own independent digital network, would you be governed by Ofcom? Because

they're impossible. I mean, it's amazing how they micromanage speech. They're actually saying things like, Dan should have pushed back in this way at this moment. It would drive me insane. So would they oversee such a thing if it were private and not on the cable airwaves? Yeah, it is insane. It's problematic because there are double standards at Ofcom. Dan and Lawrence have been in trouble for this conversation, but I've seen exactly the same conversation on other channels talking about men in the same way and nothing's happened. But yes, Ofcom will have parts play in this, unfortunately. The government have just passed a bill called the online safety bill, which means that Ofcom is no longer just responsible for broadcast media tv and radio but now also media on the internet

and i don't know how that's going to look uh how it's going to manifest because it's only just been passed in law but this essentially means that youtube even rumble all of these platforms are going to be at the behest of ofcom, which means we might not actually have any freedom of speech or expression in this country in a matter of months or weeks. What are they going to do? I mean, I'm on Rumble. I'm on YouTube and obviously available to anybody in the UK who wants to see my commentary. Are they going to just, I won't air? I mean, I just won't be, I'm not complying with them. You know what you can do? Ofcom? This. Sorry.

Sorry, father. That's what they can do. You're saying the right thing. And you're being bold. And a few people will do that. But your show just won't make it to the UK. It won't get through our ISPs. It will be filtered out.

You know, Germany already do this with some things. A lot of countries, obviously China and North Korea filter their internet. But a lot of countries filter their internet already. You just won't make it to the UK. We'll be stuck. We'll be stuck. We'll be lost. And we won't know what's going on unless it's given to us, spoon fed to us by the establishment. That is really scary.

I mean, honestly, this is not to be so too, you know, self-promotional. And by self, I mean America. But this is why we fought a revolution to get away from this, right? This is why we came over here. We established the Constitution with the Bill of Rights and the First Amendment saying freedom of the press and freedom of speech. And our government's not allowed to do this to us. It's not to say they haven't been trying over the past couple of years, but we've been getting a couple of very good, favorable court opinions lately saying, no, the First Amendment means

what they said it means. And the government is not allowed to censor or control speech, period. It's incredibly important. It's worth fighting for. And you guys, you need to follow our lead. You need your own revolution within the UK right now. We do need a revolution. You're absolutely right. But I mean, even you guys are hanging onto it by a thread because the persecution is coming. The fact that political opponents can be arrested and sent to jail, essentially what they're doing to Trump is similar to what they're doing to Lawrence Fox. You know, he's a leader of a party too. It's if they don't like you, they can get rid of you,

forget your free speech, you can be gone. It's absolutely crazy. Meanwhile, the journalist who was the subject of Lawrence's comments has come out saying, I don't care that he apologized. It's unforgivable. It was dehumanizing and that she's getting threats now. You know what she's getting threats for because of her comments, not because of his comments. She's getting threats because she's been so dismissive of men of her own heartlessness toward men. And you know what? I'm sorry. Like getting vile threats on the Internet is part of what they call the Internet. It's just it happens to anybody who puts themselves out there. It's not pleasant, but it's part of the cost of doing business. Calvin Robinson, please come on any time. I'm I'm determined to save all three of you.

This is bullshit. Sorry. Sorry. I should clean up my language. This is BS. And I wish you all the best. I want to tell the audience people can help support Calvin. It's at www.givesendgo.com, givesendgo.com slash home of cancel culture. Okay. Givesendgo.com slash home of cancel culture. Can't pay the rent. No one gives a damn. No one's been supportive of him. Nevermind them. And it's just wrong. It's just deeply wrong. Um, okay. We're going to be back tomorrow with GOP presidential candidate, Mike Pence. Looking forward to that. His very first interview here on the show. Email me with your thoughts, Megan at megankelly.com. Thanks for listening to the Megan Kelly show. No BS, no agenda, and no fear.