The MeidasTouch Podcast - Democratic Strategist Joe Trippi Discusses Midterms

Episode Date: November 7, 2022

Democratic Strategist Joe Trippi discusses Tuesday's midterm elections with Ben and Jordy on this special edition of The Mighty. Shop Meidas Merch at: https://store.meidastouch.com Join us on Patreon: https://patreon.com/meidastouch Remember to subscribe to ALL the Meidas Media Podcasts: MeidasTouch: https://pod.link/1510240831 Legal AF: https://pod.link/1580828595 The PoliticsGirl Podcast: https://pod.link/1595408601 The Influence Continuum: https://pod.link/1603773245 Kremlin File: https://pod.link/1575837599 Mea Culpa with Michael Cohen: https://pod.link/1530639447 The Weekend Show: https://pod.link/1612691018 The Tony Michaels Podcast: https://pod.link/1561049560 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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With over 3,000 games to choose from, including fan favorites like Cash Eruption, We'll be right back. to miss out. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. 19 plus to wager Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor for your charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Welcome to this edition of The Mighty. We are right on the eve of the midterm election, so there is no one else that we'd rather speak to right now at the Midas Touch podcast than Joe Trippi, a veteran Democratic political consultant. He's been doing this for about 40 years, beginning with Edward Kennedy's 1980 presidential campaign.

Of course, he ran both Howard Dean's presidential campaign and Doug Jones' 2017 upset Senate win in Alabama. He also hosts That Trippy Show podcast, which I love. And he is also a member of the Lincoln Project, working to build a pro-democracy coalition. Joe, welcome to the podcast. Oh man, it's great to be with you guys, particularly on the eve of this election, how important it all is. So no one knows more about this stuff than you. That's why I needed you on this one for my own sanity, to make sense of it. And I'm very data you know, data driven. And I know you are as well looking not just at the media hype and what they're saying, but what's really going on. So what do you see right now going into Tuesday? Well, what we all know, it's super, super close. Tomorrow, it's going to I mean,

every single action that everybody's taking in these last 24 is going to be imperative. I mean, these races are going to be very tight. I think there's a couple of things, though, that we can take from what we do know about all the data. And that is, look, with inflation, with gas prices, with Biden's approval being where it is, none of these races should be close. In other words, going back through all the years that I've been involved, in a midterm with those kinds of numbers, you would expect the kind of wave that we saw in 2010, where Obama after Obamacare, we've lost 63 seats. You know, that's what this should be.

It's clearly not. And I think that it is the extremism, the mega cult candidates, the election denier candidates out there. I mean, there's a countervailing force that is making people understand this is not a referendum on administration. It's a choice the country needs to make. And if that were not true, if that choice election were not true, then we wouldn't be in it. And that's just reality. And so that means that tomorrow is all about, at this point, turnout. It's all about do the doors get knocked? Can we? And this is something I think the pro-democracy coalition that we've all been building is much more adept at election day, get out the vote. The Republicans have to sort of count on whoever decides to get up that tomorrow morning and go vote.

We, this is one of the interesting things. When you look at this whole question, you were there they're talking about, like there's a four or five point differential on interest in the race where Republicans are 68% very interested and Democrats are 64% or 63%. First of all, that number's basically the same number in terms of polling. But second of all, I guarantee you there are people out there, this isn't, there are people out there in the pro-democracy base who do not know today, do not know today as we speak, that tomorrow

they're going to get a knock on their door and someone pleading with them and making the case that they got to vote and they will. In other words, they don't know that they're voting right now. They were asking the poll. Yeah, I kind of remember it's elections coming up, but I don't know. Tomorrow, our voters, and we're very, very good at it, the pro-democracy coalition at knocking on the doors and getting people out. And you know what? That wasn't something we had in 2022 because of COVID. And I think it really hurt us. So one of the things that makes me think there's going to be a real difference that everybody can make is that, is that tomorrow, if we all get out there and knock the doors, make the calls, and these campaigns are set up to do that. And you guys have been talking this. We've all been working on this stuff.

So I think that's a difference maker. In races that are, look, all of them are one or two points. Let's like face it. So it could go either way, but we have a big ability tomorrow to influence it. You know, and maybe you can talk through, it must be so unique to you in the past, a lot of the early voting and making early voting easier was a Republican concept because they would turn out early voters. And a lot of the laws about early voting and making it easier to vote early actually come from Republican legislators who were trying to make that easier. And so you look at these 2018

early vote numbers versus now, and it is kind of night and day. I mean, from your perspective, though, in those past elections where you would see Republicans running up the score before the election and now it's the opposite. How do you how do you react to that with that difference? Because I think you'd rather start with the lead than having to rely on one day. But, Ben, you make a great point, but it's not even just that. I mean, when you look at the numbers, something like 20 percent of voters in 2020 voted on election day. So the vast majority voted early. And again, I think that was COVID-related, right? Including white Democrats. This year, with Democrats, it's 34% have voted,

right now are saying in polls that they're going to vote early. I mean, they're going to vote on election day. Excuse me, I've got this all turned up in my head because it's so backwards, like Ben was saying. So what I'm saying is we're seeing a early vote that rivals 2018, but also more Democrats saying they're going to vote on election day, almost double, 14 points more saying they're going to vote on election day than did so in 2020. So both things are happening. We're building up a lead.

And some of the pundits out there go, well, it doesn't look quite as big an early vote as it was in the past. But yeah, that's because like a huge chunk of people are saying, you know what, COVID doesn't exist anymore. I want to vote in person. It's that important to me. So I think that's what I get when you look at, I understand, you know, the Republicans dumping all these Republican polls and revving up the big red wave is coming. But all the data, actually, when you look at the, like, how many people say they're going to vote on Election Day, how many people are voting early, and the advantages we have now,

and I think on both those scores, plus campaigns and organizations out there to galvanize volunteers to be knocking on doors and actually add to that number of people who don't even know they're going to be voting on election day. But hopefully, you know, the pleading at the doors will even increase that number. I really like our chances. Particularly, it'd be one thing if they had five point leads in some of these places, even the places where they do lead by one or two points, I think we can make that up. So I always feel on a day like today, when I was running the campaign, that it was the hardest time to be the campaign manager, because basically everything's on autopilot except for all those

volunteers that are out there. And so I became one of them. I just, you know, screw it. What am I going to do? Sit here. Even if you spend press calls all day long, that's all you do. You're not making a difference. Those stories aren't going to be written until it's too late. So now it's, I think there are going to be a lot of people in these campaigns that are going to be, you know, they were raising money, making finance calls. And now it's like, hey, you're not fundraising anymore. You're getting on the phone, you're calling voters, because that's how close this is going to be. You know, one of the currents that I always feel that the pro-democracy coalition is running against is obviously on the one hand, it's a

given the kind of pro-fascist cult Trump media, Fox and all of that. But really the both sides media as well. And you referenced Republicans flooding the zone with those polls. But it's kind of just obvious to me when you look at it that they're doing it. Yeah, they're doing it because the media writes about it and then elevates these polls to a stature that they shouldn't have, where the data, and again, who knows what happens on election day. We hope that the Democrats who say they're showing up show up. We hope anything can happen. But you follow the data. It tells a different story. And so what do you make right now of the evolution of the media, which frankly gave birth, I think, to groups like Midas Touch, groups like Lincoln Project, groups like other

people who need to fill the void. But how do you see that going when you were running the Howard Dean campaign, for example, or even the Edward Kennedy work that you did to what we have in 2022? Oh, it's light and day. I mean, it's night and day. What's fascinating, I don't know if you saw the Philip Bump piece in the Washington Post where he tracked how crime became the issue. And a great chart where in September, crime was nowhere. It was nowhere, folks. It wasn't an issue. No one was talking about it. All of a sudden, Fox starts doing crime, crime, crime. They're coming to get you. They're going to get you, you know, stop the crime, crime, crime. And then right at the same time, Republican candidates started running crime commercials and talking about and screaming crime, crime, crime. And guess what? Two weeks later, CNN and MSNBC both started covering the Republicans talking about crime as an issue, and it grew.

It just shows you how the outrage machine that the right has built over decades actually controls the national dialogue and agenda. And it's why I thank you for the Midas touch, for the whole thing. I mean, this is a Lincoln Project, et cetera. But we need to build a counter to that outrage machine. I mean, and like you said, you're trying, we're trying, we're all doing it. It's not just trying, it's being effective. Millions of people are signing up. But that's why I started talking about building a pro-democracy coalition, because this isn't Lincoln Project or Midas Touch, right, left, it's none of that. It's all of us who put our oars in the water and start to build a pro-democracy coalition to take on the enemies of democracy and start to control or have

an impact on the messaging. Because right now, that's all theirs. They have it. We're literally, it's a fire hose versus some squirt guns. And I'm just being, you know, as amazing work that you've done, we got to build that platform in a way that brings more and more eyeballs and ears and door knockers to the cause of understanding that democracy is on the ballot. And, you know, that's why I'm glad that the president gave that speech the other night, trying to make that clear. Because I think there are, I see in focus groups, there are a lot of people who, yeah, they think inflation's bad, but they think the right mega cult is nuts. And so in that, it's what i call cross pressure you see it a lot uh when you're running a campaign there are people who both care about inflation and care about dobs right there are women who care and and by the way i think there are a hell of a lot of

democrats who care about inflation they're glad Democrats are doing something about it. So they can say, yes, inflation is my biggest concern. But they don't mean that, you know, I'm going to vote against the Democrats. They actually think Democrats are the only ones who did. So it's my biggest concern, and I'm voting for Democrats. It's not like that. Everybody who's concerned about inflation is lockstep, got no other pressure or no other concerns, or isn't a Democrat who understands what the infrastructure bill and some of the other, you know, lowering of insulin, you know, capping insulin costs, Medicare, negotiating drug prices, all those things.

There are people out there who understand inflation is the number one answer, number one problem, and Democrats are doing something about it. The press keeps reporting it as inflation's high, therefore the Democrats are dead. And then the right-wing outrage machine starts pumping polls out that are like cooked. I mean, they're so ridiculous, most of them, or their methodology is so suspect. And you can tell when they're flooding four or five of them over a three-day period, and it's, oh, geez. And then, you know, 538 or somebody, you know, puts out their average,

which includes those damn polls, and suddenly it starts to look like exactly their mantra that, you know, the red wave is growing out there well um look i i still believe with all the um data i've seen early vote late latest polling that that democrats will hold the senate um i don't know that we'll gain i hope so so there's there's two sides of joe trippy here okay there's the data guy who says look i think we're going to, maybe it's 50, 50 with Kamala still breaking the tie. I still think even the data driven guy thinks, hey, it might be a one seat pickup for Democrats. Okay. Then the hope side takes over if I go higher

than that. Right. I mean, but I think we hold it or, or, or, or gain one. I'd like to see a Mike Franken or somebody or a Sherry Beasley surprise us all and the world and gain another notch or two or Tim Ryan. But some of those are tough, but I think one of them is possible. That's what I'm saying. When you look at Tim Ryan, Sherry Beasley, Mike Franken, I wouldn't be stunned at all if one of those surprises us. Not all three, but if one of them does. So that's sort of my read on the Senate. My read on the House is, again, the realist in me says that when you look at the numbers and the number of the percentage of all the toss-ups we'd have to win to hold the house um that if we held it it'd be by a seat maybe two or three and and uh and there's a little bit of hope in there too i mean i'm being honest about because three we get really down to

it it looks more like eight to to 15 to me that we lose, that the Republicans will take the House by. The one caveat on that is that they are all toss ups. Again, this goes back to what I was saying earlier. These are all seats that are within a point. They're a toss up for a reason. Twenty seven of the 32 toss ups have an election denier as the Republican nominee, a mega election. So this gets back to that cross pressure.

How do people go in there in those 27 of the 32 toss-up seats, and do they break away from that mega cult? I mean, I'm talking about the two or three points here who who could who could move at this point um or or you know how that breaks could still in my view uh give us a chance to hold the house but in any case every one of those 32 seats is a dead heat and what you do tomorrow if you're in one of them uh where have you got time to call or volunteer can make a big difference. And Joe, you're so right. By every historical context and metric, you know, this should honestly be a blowout going against Democrats. The fact that we're even in this as close as we are should speak volumes. Now, that's not good enough. If you all listen to this,

you have to get off your butts and go out there and vote and get your friends to vote. We have to win. But I just want to put that out there by every historical context. This shouldn't even be a contest right now. No, no, it shouldn't at all. And I think the one thing that the big question mark is when you look at early vote and those who intend to vote is is the youth vote. You know, if young voters turn out, younger voters turn out, the way the metrics all work, it'll be a disaster for Republicans. It'll change all these numbers because all the pollsters are showing numbers pretty low for that turnout. Now, Tom Bonior and others who've looked at that data say they see signs of that group being even more energized to vote in person because COVID's not, I mean, again, a lot of us are doing things that we couldn't do, you know, in person with when COVID was around. That cohort looks like he thinks is going to turn out on Election Day.

But we got to make sure it does. So we have to make sure that that everybody gets the message out there that tomorrow's that important, that've got to, got to make the effort. You got to go. And that's the one, the one demographic I'm a little worried about, uh, or there's a question about because of the, the different kinds of signs there are both in the polling and, and the early vote. It's going to definitely be interesting, uh, to figure out what happens with the youth vote. Uh, it does look promising, but we'll find out. I want to come back to this, but I quickly want to pivot to media and specifically new media, because I just feel like you're the perfect person to ask about this. I just feel like

overwhelmingly the American people have come to the understanding now that social media is just such a powerful player in our elections for good or for bad. It's just influence on public thought. It just can't be ignored anymore. So how important do you think the role of social player in our elections for good or for bad it's just it's influence on public thought it just can't be ignored anymore so like how important do you think the role of social media is in our elections well look i think it's it's now become the most important um impact or uh or medium that a campaign and what we all do what midasas Touch does in terms of using and being digitally out there and moving people. I think the problem is that most of the consultants in both parties still spend way too much and way too much time on broadcast ads and cable ads to the detriment of not putting enough resources and

enough time into social media and digital. And I do not understand it. I mean, look, we're in an election where, let's face it, all these races are within a point and 95 percent have made up their mind i mean you're looking at races that are 46 to 44 you know 47 to 47 right okay do we really believe that a trillion more points on television of which by the way so you're talking to the choir on both sides with that ad yeah which means if you you can you know so that's one but you're spending all that money to try to get to the five percent that might actually you know might actually move or stay home or something and wait a minute so we know that the people who are for us but are uh we're are less likely or at least signs of it are younger why not instead of trying to blast millions and millions and millions of dollars in a you know in

this senate race television why wouldn't we be targeting every one of those younger voters on digital with compelling messaging um geared what we've done, student loans, whatever. Instead, you're not going to run a student loan ad for millions of dollars on television because the 95%, you know, it's not going to have an impact. However, you can target every single person out there within an age group or, you know, in other ways to cut it up and go right at them with things that we've actually done and the threat to what the Republicans could do. And seniors on Medicare, care and Social Security. I mean, there's just different ways to use that medium and to get the messages to people. And yes, even seniors now. I mean, it's like you got to explain to consultants that like, no, no, they actually have smartphones too.

It's crazy given that I helped pioneer this stuff in 2003, 2004 with Howard Dean. And now watch and we're still I thought, okay, but they'll get it. And there are campaigns that get it, but we're still sitting here in 2022 and you still see millions and millions and millions of dollars plowing away in a medium that one has lost

impact. And yet not only that, it's not just a dying medium, but it's like diminishing returns. I mean, after you've gotten your message, you know, beating people over the head 1,000 times versus 900 times isn't, you know, with the same message. If it's not working, if it's not hitting, you know, you don't get more if you, let's do it 2000 times, it doesn't make sense.

But there are groups that you can see in your targeting, you know, that you can say, gosh, we could we could run a very specific message to people who we know will be predominantly within that group. And they care about this and we we and we're not saying it until i mean we it's just too much money to run all those different ads but you can do it in digital and make a huge difference and by the way look at look at what we saw so you got no in these in georgia last time i mean you know you know, Biden winning Georgia by 14000 votes. You know, I mean, these are digital. You can move 40000 votes by by really going after like 100000, 200000 people with targeted digital, really repetition, making sure they're getting the message, following up with them, actually engaging with them and building a connection.

There's no connection on TV. Come on. I mean, that's why I started the Dean campaign, because I was so ticked off at television being a one-way medium where, yeah, I get to tell you how great I am, but you can't tell me anything. So that's why digital is so important important because you can engage. And you know who's better than that in anybody? Unfortunately, Donald Trump, right? I mean, that's what he was doing with Twitter. He was actually digitally engaging with millions of his followers and

building that connection. And I don't think we've seen that since maybe Obama on our side, you know, which I think is happening right now, you know, come to fore who are actually have come to age in the digital age and understand that it's a stronger medium and more effective than the old broadcast television that we continue to waste millions of dollars on one thousand percent you've said so many sharp things in that brief period of time that i really want to dig into but i i want to lean more into the social media and the impact of how powerful it can really be so in 2016 for example when when trump won you know the the saying had become you know the left can't meme well i don't think that was the case i just think we were playing a

different game and we weren't playing the game correctly. So now you see the evolution of how we are all targeting social media, be it TikTok or YouTube or Twitter, and using all the forces for good and seeing what can happen when we do that, i.e. 2020. And so as we approach these elections, too, I just think, you know, when we look at a digital or paid media strategy, we can't any longer think like it's 2010 or before where paid media means just TV media, because that's insane. Paid media means, you know, it could be some, you know, television media and television buys. I think they need to be choiceful and quite specific because you're also speaking to a very different audience. I think the younger generation for choiceful and quite specific because you're also speaking to a very different audience.

I think the younger generation, for the most part, and actually generations as a whole, have become cord cutters to a big extent. And so, you know, do you think there is a natural balance between sort of digital media and how it plays with, you know, traditional television media? Yeah, well, I mean, first of all, you have to be on every platform. You can't be, it's like saying, well, we're going to do broadcast, but, or it's even saying we're going to be on Twitter, but we're not going to be on TikTok. I mean, that's crazy.

You know, it's got, no, and it does involve paid. That's what I'm saying. They don't take enough of the budget and pour it into paid digital or social media promotion of the message, a lot of campaigns. I think there, like I said, there's some, I thought Fetterman was actually has been pretty good on, on the social media stuff.

I don't know what their spend is yet on digital versus broadcast, but there's no doubt in my mind. I mean, first of all, it's where they outflanked us they they and that's what i meant by trump being you know engaging on social um in a way that um uh you know we did it in 2004 that way with our blog for america but one day i woke up and twitter was was donald trump's blog for america it was his it was like literally a platform. We had to build ours and get 650,000 people on it and engage with them. The platform was sitting there.

And by the way, Democrats could have taken advantage of that too. I mean, candidates could have, but didn't. And I think that's one of the things I wrote when I wrote my book. I said that back then, and when it came out, you know, in several decades, you know, like 10, almost 20 years ago now, but a long time, that the technology doesn't, it's powerful as all hell. Social media was going to be powerful as all get out but that the problem is the medium and the technology does not know it's got no it doesn't know who's using

it good or bad or or or ideology or anything it's it's powerful for whoever decides to to build it and and use it and it turned out i I think the Democrats learned after Howard Dean that, oh, you can really raise money online. And that was like the big lesson, I think, be, you know, for them. And Republicans learned, I think, a deeper lesson about that, about how to use it to, as you said, create memes, connect, build a digital army out there and grow it. And Trump really did that well. And so we got way behind. And now we're playing catch up on something we should have been, we should have owned it given- Should have been the pioneers of it yeah yeah thank you for geeking out with me right there on the social

digital strategy um thank you i really i really i really wanted to talk to you about that specifically no no no it's been something hell look guys i went in to do i literally was like starting to kick myself was like this so i helped launch this this, the blog for, you know, everything that we did are the way we connected deeply with our, our, our, our volunteers and supporters in 2003, 2004, the Dean campaign. And then when I realized, like, and I thought, by the way, that I was helping to build this thing that would bring us all together as Americans, that we could form a community and actually share ideas. And man, this would be the greatest thing. You know, the utopian side and never saw the even though I warned about the dystopia that could come because it doesn't know the ideology.

I never really believed that that could happen in the way it has. And when I woke up that day and realized, holy crap, Donald Trump is the first guy to actually get that connection, and he's doing it. And not only that, the press and everybody's like you know flint you know uh uh waving it on uh giving uh giving it oxygen i i was like really severely depressed i mean i got that that this is my that i that that i did anything to help that occur. I literally blamed my, like, I got that despondent about it.

That it's just something I never saw coming. And that I couldn't believe that what the Dean campaign, what several of us started back then or was hoping for that back then, had gone so wrong with Donald Trump and the MAGA cults and Steve Bannon and all their use of it. And I still think that's the thing, I think, long term, that we've got, this isn't going to go away. Trump's getting back in the race for president. Axios is reporting he's getting in on November 14th. And CNN reported today that they're hearing two to three weeks from now, but that he's definitely getting in.

Even if we defeat him in 2024, even if he's indicted and in jail and running from jail saying that, you know, it's all the dark, the deep state coming out to get him and stop preventing him from being president again. It's not going away. Right. This authoritarian cult that now owns the Republican Party is not leaving. And we have to get better, build a digital army, a pro-democracy coalition, a media platform that takes on their disinfo and fights with them to win the dialogue that right now they they win every time because the outrage machine is so easily able to co-opt the mainstream media that does the both sides ism without calling out the truth. So we got to do that.

It's such an excellent point that you make there, too, with Trump. Someone had asked me the other day, hey, are you most concerned about Donald Trump in 2024? It's like, no, Trump is a person, but Trumpism and this MAGA movement is something that is now so ingrained in the culture in the United States with a fraction, not a fraction, but a segment of the population here, that that is what I'm most concerned about, this everlasting effect of Trumpism and MAGAism, if you will. But moving on to a much more light topic here, I guess we could call it light. We just need more of a rallying cry, I guess. As we head into tomorrow, what is your message to the doom and gloom Democrats or just doom and gloom pro-democracy warriors out there who have been discouraged by

maybe a poll that they've seen? And now they're thinking like, why should I even vote? What is your message to them? Leave no stone unturned, knock on every door, fight to the end, and make sure that you have a plan to vote, that everybody you know has a plan to vote, do not give up. Look, the biggest thing that I've learned, because I didn't know a whole lot about authoritarianism, it wasn't something I'd actually focused on during my political career. It might be a surprise to you, but it's the truth. But the biggest thing I've learned is that authoritarian movements count on exhausting their opponents. They count on, and you can see actually Putin doing this in Ukraine, right? It's all, it's just exhaust, exhaust, exhaust, keep pushing until you give in

and you're too exhausted to do it. What I say to people is you got to resist that when you feel that way. Um, you got to realize there is a community out there that you're part of. It might've touched Lincoln project that cares deeply about this democracy and saving it that we can rise up together and it will take several cycles to kill this. And it may never, I mean, there may be, make it smaller and smaller, but it will always be there. It was always there in this country. We just didn't see it. It was hidden.

But now it's out in the open. And this is about what country you want to be, what you want to pass on, and what you're willing to fight for. And damn it, I'm old. I'm still fighting. So go out and fight. Make sure you knock those doors. Do anything you can to help people get the message and vote tomorrow. And let's win this damn thing. Let's win this damn thing. I think we can. I think the data is hopeful. But in addition to being hopeful, we got to go out and we got to vote. It's just that simple, folks. It's so great to have you on this episode of The Mighty as we approach election day.

Joe Trippi, a true honor, a friend of the pod, a friend of Midas Touch. We thank you for everything you do. No, thank you guys. Thanks for having me. Go Mighty. At Midas Touch, we are unapologetically pro-democracy and we demand justice and accountability that's why we're spreading our message to convict 45 that's right gear up right