The MeidasTouch Podcast - YIKES!! Trump Gets BAD NEWS with new VOTING DATA (with Simon Rosenberg)

Episode Date: October 17, 2024

MeidasTouch host Ben Meiselas interviews top data expert Simon Rosenberg of the Hopium Chronicles to discuss the latest voting data. Remember to subscribe to ALL the MeidasTouch Network Podcasts: MeidasTouch: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/meidastouch-podcast Legal AF: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/legal-af MissTrial: https://meidasnews.com/tag/miss-trial The PoliticsGirl Podcast: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-politicsgirl-podcast The Influence Continuum: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-influence-continuum-with-dr-steven-hassan Mea Culpa with Michael Cohen: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/mea-culpa-with-michael-cohen The Weekend Show: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-weekend-show Burn the Boats: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/burn-the-boats Majority 54: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/majority-54 Political Beatdown: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/political-beatdown Lights On with Jessica Denson: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/lights-on-with-jessica-denson On Democracy with FP Wellman: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/on-democracy-with-fpwellman Uncovered: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/maga-uncovered Coalition of the Sane: https://meidasnews.com/tag/coalition-of-the-sane  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. As the election approaches, let's focus on the data. And we have the best in the business, Simon Rosenberg. Simon, first I want to talk about the polling data. I know people are being overwhelmed with the deluge of polls, but let's just break it down for people right now. This is the post that you made moments ago. Two new highly rated polls show Vice President Kamala Harris gaining this morning. The tip poll has her up by four, 50 to 46 percent.

The new Morris poll has her up 52 percent to 47 percent. This is on top of her leading in the morning consult poll, plus four. The New York Times poll, plus four. ABC and CBS, plus three. And then the New Economist YouGov poll has been steady as she goes, up four, Vice President Kamala Harris's. So with this data from actual top-rated pollsters, we'll talk about some of these other people who

are flooding the zone in a bit. What does this tell you about the race on October 16th, 2024? Look, it's a close competitive election, but we have modest leads nationally and in the battlegrounds. We're closer to 270 in the battlegrounds. And my general take on the election is that because of our financial advantage and our grassroots advantage, that we are far more likely in these closing weeks to move the election towards us and win. And so I feel good. I mean, I know that there has been chatter in the family about the NBC poll that showed Kamala Harris dropping. But that's not been found in other polls. And people have to realize that polls bounce around. I mean,

everything is sort of within margin of error. And right now, today, on the 538 national average, Kamala Harris is actually a tenth of a point higher than she was a week ago. She's actually gained a little bit. And as you pointed out, Ben, she's actually gained in some really important high quality polls that we all respect, right? I mean, the Marist poll is one of the highest rated polls in our business. She gained three points. The tip poll is also highly rated, highly regarded. She gained a point since yesterday. And in those polls, she's up four points, five points, right? She's up four points in the New York Times poll. We've all gone crazy with New York Times poll. We actually got the best New York Times poll the entire cycle a few days ago. And it was like it never happened

in our world. And then also today, this morning, a poll that's very meaningful to me, a poll that I have a lot of respect for, a poll that comes out on Wednesday mornings, the Economist YouGov poll, which is kind of this very sturdy, well-constructed poll, showed her up four points, 49, 45, no change from last week. I think this whole idea that she's dropped, no change from last week. A poll that polls every week as opposed to three or four times a year, right, or five times a year. And importantly, in the Economist You Go poll, is that the polls that are showing her ahead three, four, five points are more often than not likely voter polls. And so we're starting to see what we saw in 2022, Ben, when I used to come on here, is we're doing slightly better with the voters who are more likely to vote in the election, which is what you want, right? That's better than being

ahead with registered voters because the likely universe is more likely to approximate the universe that actually votes because about 20% of registered voters don't vote in these elections. And trying to figure out which one those are is sort of the secret sauce of polling. But to summarize, I would much rather be honest than them with three weeks to go. In 2022, we also started looking at that early voting data when we had data that was statistically significant. And you and I and Tom Bonior, we really held off going into that from a week ago or so because we were trying to digest a lot of this data. But let's just take a look at a high level what we're seeing. I think tomorrow we'll bring in Tom Bonior, you know, who really dissects this well. But take a look right here in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, their absentee ballots, the return ballots, Democrats 416,000, the GOP 158,000,

and Democrats are returning these ballots at a much higher rate. You look at what just took place in Georgia, setting records on the first day of early voting, blowing away past records, 305,000 ballots cast. And you start looking at the counties like Fulton County, Cobb County, DeKalb County, Gwinnett County. And then you look at the gender, 54.4% female. That's in Georgia. You take a look at what's going on in Michigan. Nearly 800,000 people have now voted there with Detroit absentee ballot returns rocking at nearly 45%, 9% higher than the statewide average. You take a look, this is, you start to see a trend, right? And you start to see patterns developing. What are you seeing there? Yeah. I mean, the early vote, it's interesting. The early vote in this election is going to look

a lot like 2024 and not 2020 or 2022. It's like every election. It's got its own unique kind of sort of manifestations. And I've been a little bit slow to analyze it because it's first of all, it's still very early. And also, there are certain things that are going as we want. There are other things that are, you know, we have to pay attention to. But what's most important is this, is that from the votes that have come in nationally, we are still running ahead of 2020 at this point. And we won in 2020. So that's a very good sign. We also expect and anticipate that the independent vote is going to be a little bit more Democratic this time, because a lot of young people who are voting Democratic have registered as independent. So when you look at the poll results of Democrat, Republican, and Independent, we don't know how those independents are going to vote, but they're likely to be marginally more Democratic than they were. And we also expect that we're going to get some of those Republicans are voting, we're going to get some of them too, right? So when you look at the D, R, and I numbers, it's very possible that we're going to get some of them too, right? So when you look at the D, R, and I numbers,

it's very possible that we're going to get a little bit more from the R's and the I's than just what we're getting from the D's, right? This is something we'll learn. We'll find out as we get further into this. And so the fact that we could have this like little bit of a hidden vote in the I's and the R's and we're ahead nationally of where we were in 2020 at this point is very encouraging. Second, as you pointed out, in the early state, in the battleground seven states, we're doing much better than 2020. And where the all-star so far is Michigan. I mean, Michigan is, the Democratic vote there is performing unbelievably well. We're doing well in Pennsylvania. We're doing well in Wisconsin. And we'll find out we just early voting is just beginning now in the

other four states. North Carolina starts tomorrow, Thursday. We just started in Georgia yesterday. Arizona just began. So we'll start getting much more data in those other states. But so far, so good. Steady as she goes, right? And what's really important, Ben, and we talked a lot about this in 2022, what everyone needs to realize who's watching today is that it's very important that you vote early. Vote as early as you can. Because when you vote early, you come off the GOTV rolls for the campaign. They know every night who's voted that day, not how you voted, but that you voted. And when you come off the GOTV rolls for the campaign. They know every night who's voted that day, not how you voted, but that you voted. And when you come off the GOTV rolls, it allows the campaign to move to

lower propensity voters quicker. If they move to lower propensity voters quicker and start talking to them now, it's more likely they vote for us. So when you vote early, you actually can increase Democratic turnout, make more Democrats, and make it more likely we win. So if you have a choice between voting on Election Day or voting near Election Day and voting right now, vote right now. It's more important that you vote now and that we attempt to run up the score in October, as we did in 2022, and win this election in October in the early vote and not wait till Election Day. You know, and a lot of people watching this, though, may say, hey, it looks like when I've been seeing some of these state results, particularly,

Donald Trump is gaining back some of the ground that he had previously lost following the debate. In some of these state polls, Donald Trump looks like he's up in some of these state polls. And now this is something that you spearheaded in 2022, calling out, though, the fact that there were all of these Republican manufactured polls to try to skew the averages, to create this appearance of a red wave with ultimately the goal to suppress the vote, exhaust voters, and to make pro-democracy Democratic voters feel that their vote doesn't matter and that there's no chance their candidate's going to win. You add on top of this right now, these betting markets. That's been a new trend that we've just seen in 2024. The biggest being this poly market account and it's being pushed by all of the prominent maga people lots of social media influencers posting here's what you wrote

about it earlier in the day you said it's literally unbelievable that an offshore crypto based betting market that americans themselves cannot bet. Let me repeat that. Americans cannot bet in this market has become a credible source of information about our elections this year. And then you point out here is a prominent CNBC host, Joe Kernan, promoting this polymarket thing. Yes, we are red waving all over again. Tell us about what we're seeing here. Yeah. And I will say one thing about the early vote I should have mentioned, which is that we should expect the Republicans to do a little better this time because they've actually learned from their mistakes in 2020 and 2022. And then in some states, they're really

pushing the early vote. So the fact that we're still doing better than 2020 when Republicans are actually trying harder this time is also something that should be very encouraging to us. Okay. On the red wave, what the red wave was in 2022, as you pointed out, was an attempt to make the electorate, the election look more Republican than it really was. And on Labor Day, everyone thought the election was going to be close and competitive. And then a series of polls happened, national polls, but they flooded the zone, seven states, dozens of polls that pushed the polling averages in those states to the right. And it was so significant that real clear politics using averages, who knows what

goes into those averages, but using averages, ended up with 54 Republican seats in the Senate. And they got to 49. That's how wrong all this was. The polling, the public polling was moved and distorted by this effort to flood the zone with these polls. And it worked, right? I mean, we went into Election Day believing that a red wave was going to come, and we're still waiting for the red wave two years later, right? This time what they're doing is there's been a dramatic escalation of this strategy tactically. They have released more than six – last time in 2022,

during the whole period they did this they released about 45 polls they've released more than they've released about 65 polls just in the last couple weeks they began much earlier this time weeks and weeks earlier right making um they are there are now at least 29 different organizations involved in promoting these polls, right? It's not one or two groups, it's dozens of Republican and right-leaning, right-affiliated organizations that are participating in this effort. And so they've dramatically scaled up what they're doing, in part because in a presidential year, there's more polling. So if they're going to move the averages, they actually have to produce more data to push the averages. And one of my favorite moments in this is that when they, one week, they pushed and they focused on North Carolina, they released five polls in like seven days, the 538 in North Carolina average went to Trump. And one of the Republican pollsters took credit on Twitter for having moved the 538 average

to Trump. Like they literally were acknowledging the op and taking credit for it, right? That they're gaming the system. And it's so overt and blatant that they're actually bragging about it when they do it. But the other part of the escalation this time is what you were describing with these betting markets, PolyMark. Polymarket is an offshore, Caribbean-based, cryptocurrency-derived betting market where Americans themselves can't bet on elections. So all that data you're seeing

is from people who live outside the United States who are making bets on our election. And of course, those could be manipulated, right, by wealthy people from Russia and China and Iran and Syria, wherever else, right? You know, North Korea could be buying up and pushing the markets. And the idea that we're supposed to take all that seriously, and this has some kind of relevance to our election, it's so bonkers. And the idea that somebody like a CNBC host is now openly promoting this stuff. Elon Musk tweeted out a couple of days ago, which is sort of the tell that, you know, this is more accurate than polling because people have real money on the line. aren't from the United States. And so we have this new entrant of this polymarket thing,

which is buying up real estate on some of the sites that track polling. They're now part of the Substack universe as well. They've used their resources, their cryptocurrency resources to push themselves into our discourse. And it's just an absurdity that this is part of it. It's almost like swatting. It's like LOL stuff, right? You can't even believe they're getting away with this and this stuff's being traded seriously. Harry Enten on CNN uses polymarket data in his political analysis. And so what's happened is they've escalated. This is what happens with every kind of influence operation like this. It's like what happened with 2016 and the Russians is they did a little bit, they got away with it. So they did a little bit more and they got away with that. And then they did a little bit more.

Well, in 2022, they ran this up and it worked. So of course, they were going to come back and do it again this time. But they didn't stand pat, right? They evolved and it escalated. And to your point, the other thing that's different this time is that the right-wing ecosystem is far more invested in promoting this false data than it was in 2022. You've got guys like all the tenant media guys, Benji Johnson, and all these guys are deeply involved in promoting polymarket and the real clear politics. And part of, Ben, what your viewers have to understand and your listeners is that it's not just about making Trump feel strong

and Kamala Harris feel weak and that they're winning and that we're losing. It's also a predicate for them contesting the election. And what they need is they need maps that their audience has been consuming for weeks, showing them winning when they're not winning, by the way. They're not winning the election right now. We are far closer to winning the election. But now what's going to happen is we're going to have weeks of propaganda and all this right-wing ecosystem amplified by the Russians and everybody else telling Republican voters that Donald Trump is winning the election. And then when he doesn't win, he's going to say, look, they cheated, right? So this is pernicious and malevolent and desperate. And you have to realize they wouldn't be doing all

this if they felt they were winning the election. And so we have to be, what's been disappointing again, is that the mainstream media and people who comment on this stuff have not really been honest with us about what we're seeing. This has been a dramatic escalation. They've pushed some of the polling averages and the right-wing sites. And all they want, the way to think about this is they don't care if Trump is winning in North Carolina or Pennsylvania by a tenth of a point or two points. It just generates a graphic, whether it's a map that shows Trump at 281, 270, or we see all these graphics like the stuff you were showing earlier with all the red for Trump, where it looks like he's winning the election. They just want the graphics to show Trump winning and us losing. And so, you know, this is a, they're doing it again.

And we shouldn't be, we understand just like what Trump just did in North Carolina and what Trump did with eating cats and dogs, that they invent these things and they've got an amplification system that allows them to persuade a large majority of their own voters that something has happened that hasn't actually happened, right? I mean, there was no stealing of FEMA money to giving it to undocumented immigrants. There was no eating of cats and dogs. But we just saw in the CBS News poll that 90% of Republicans believe that Joe Biden stole FEMA money away from the people in North Carolina and gave it to undocumented immigrants. Well, 90% of Republicans are going to go into election day believing that Donald Trump won the election because of this op, right? And so the

only reason you do this is one, you don't think you're winning. The second thing is the big blubbery baby man needs the comfort of a whoopee feeling like he's winning and not losing and for all the demobilization stuff. And third, it's a predicate for them. It's a necessary predicate for them to contest the election in November. This is part one of our interview. We're going to bring Tom Bonior in tomorrow. Part two, we'll go through some of that early voting returns that Bonior's following. We'll follow up on some of this information that we talked about here as well. As we get closer to the election, it's going to be critical that we get out accurate data, the good, the bad, the ugly, frankly. And if there's data that's not good, we got to be

true tellers to tell you that as well. But when there's data that's being manipulated out there by the right wing, we need to be on the front lines sharing that with you. So Simon, thanks for joining us. We'll see you again tomorrow. Everybody hit subscribe and let me do one last thing. Yeah, let me just do one last thing just for everyone who's listening. I just been watching. The election is close. We are winning the election, but we haven't won it yet. Whether we win it will be determined to a great degree by how much work we all do. So whatever you can do to be an information warrior and a Midas Mighty, right, and move this information around, postcarding, phone calling, canvassing, texting, donating, right?

Whatever you can do, this is now we are ahead, but now we got to go win this thing. It's like we're up three to two in the seventh inning or two baskets at the end of the third quarter or by a field goal at the end of the third quarter, whatever your analogy is, we're ahead, but we haven't won yet. And we need to close strong and go win this election. The vice president is closing strong. Their ads they released today are great. Her rallies are amazing. She is in the zone and bringing it. We got to join her and bring it together.

If we do it, we can win this election and have it be everything we want it to be. Everybody also check out the Hopium Chronicles, hopiumchronicles.com, led by Simon Rosenberg. You'll get daily information from Simon. Thanks, everybody, for watching. Hit subscribe. You'll get daily information from Simon. Thanks everybody for watching. Hit subscribe. Let's get to 4 million together. Thank you.