The Mismatch - Brunson to New York, Implications for the Knicks and Mavs With Marc Stein | The Void

Episode Date: June 29, 2022

Hey, it’s Kevin! Thank you for listening to 'The Void.' With the news of Jalen Brunson possibly leaving the Mavs for the Knicks, I bring on Marc Stein to help break down all the implications from both sides. You can subscribe to Marc’s Substack by using the link below. Here are today’s timestamps: (03:30) - How much of a blunder is this for the Mavs? (05:18) - Why Jalen Brunson is worth the money he’s getting (12:44) - How can the Mavs replace Brunson? (18:52) - The Dejounte Murray sweepstakes (22:23) - Any other potential targets for the Knicks? Marc Stein Substack link: https://marcstein.substack.com/ Host: Kevin O'Connor Guest: Marc Stein Producer: Jessie Lopez Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's popping, everybody? This is Logan Murdoch, and I'm here with my co-host for the Real Ones podcast on the Ringer NBA show, The Incomparable, the Realist, the man who invented the pregame Red Bull Snow Cone, Raja Bell. Thank you, Logan. You're far too kind, sir. Did you know that the Ringer NBA show feed now has six podcasts a week? Six.

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Thank you for listening to The Void. Today we're going to be talking about the implications of Jalen Brunson, likely leaving the Mavericks to sign with the Knicks who are expected to offer him a four-year deal worth up to around $110 million. To do that, bringing on my friend from Substack, Mark Stein. What's up, Mark? Evan O'Cudley, man of the people. What's going on, Mark? We've done a, how many of your Spotify lives have we done now? Two of them, I think, last couple of months? Two, two, and they all got Raid reviews. The people love KOC. They don't really care about me, but if you're on, they flock to

the Spotify Live. I don't know, Mark, anytime I do those, and you bring people up on stage to ask questions, you keep a great room. They always ask good questions, they ask them quick. How many of those a week are you doing right now for Spotify Live? Sometimes, too, but mostly one, but no, I really

do like it. To me, I'm a radio guy, like, even though My voice sucks. I love radio. It's actually probably my favorite medium, which is kind of weird since I'm really a writer. I love doing ESPN radio. My years there, like that was the greatest gig to be the sideline guy with, you know, the late great Jim Durham and Hubey Brown and, you know, Kessie and Hughie and just John Barry, T.J. Just all kinds of amazing people on those broadcast. Mike Tariko and Hubey and I'd be the the sideline guy. Just incredible thing. So I absolutely love radio. And I kind of see Spotify Live. It's like a radio call-and-show slash live podcast.

So it's, I love it, man. I love it. It's really cool. And I always love how people can interact in the chat. And all the people who are listening to it can have their own side conversations to react to what you and whoever on stage are discussing. It's, I love doing those. I really do.

They're a good time. But I think, like I said, they want to hear you, not me. But I guess I will, if you want me to fill the void, if you want me to fill the void on the voice today, I'm in the crime. Well, okay, let's start here, Mark. You know, we give reports here that the Nix are about to offer Jaylen Brunson $110 million over four years, and the Mavericks could lose Brunson for nothing.

How much of a blunder is this for Dallas? Well, look, they had multiple chances to give him an extension. And in Dallas, everybody is all in huff that the original. contract wasn't structured differently, so they could have controlled his free agency after year three. But the reality was, you know, this season, the Mavs came into this season knowing Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney Smith were both eligible for four-year extensions that topped out at just under $56 million. They held off on both guys. They didn't want to do extensions because they thought, what if a trade materializes that we just have to put in Brunson or Doreen

Phidney Smith, we got to keep our options open. So they didn't extend them when they had the chance. Now, as the story goes, Rick Brunson told my neighbor Tim McMahon during the playoffs that he went back to the Mavs in April and, in January, and said, Jalen will still do the deal. The four-year, 55.6 million. The Mavs, said, no, we want to wait. And the trade deadline passed. They obviously made the Porzingis trade, but there was no trade that necessitated the involvement of Dorian or Jalen.

You saw Dorian Finney Smith and the Mavs do an extension seconds after the trade deadline. By that point, Jalen Brunson was like, no, I'm going to unrestricted free agency. I know I can get more than $56 million. And he is very much correct. He's going to get doubled. Do you think that the Mavericks regret just not taking the deal then? Like, is there, is there, they do? Whether they will admit that publicly remains to be seen, but they have to regret it.

I mean, Jalen Brunson on a four-year 55.6 million deal is incredible value. I mean, I know there are a lot of people questioning is he worth 25 million a year. I would argue he is. Look at the, look, you know, I included this in one of my recent around the league notebooks that I can't remember which day because I feel like I've been posting one every day lately. But Spottrack has a great listing of the, of the, of point guard salaries. If Jalen Brunson, his new contract would have placed him

about 15th in the league based on this season's salaries. Like, it's a very expensive position. And there are many more point guards that are making more than 25-0. And I think Jalen Brunson, based on his play this past season, has earned that figure. And, you know, look, he's going to have to prove it. He's going to have to go to New York and deliver. And just be a lot of pressure on him.

but, you know, I don't see, I don't know how you feel. I do not see that as an outrageous number. No, I'm with you there, Mark, because, like, you look at those numbers. Mike Conley makes 22.6 million. Malcolm Brogden makes 22.6. Harry Rozier makes 21.5. Kyle Lowry makes 28.3. So, like, he's smack in the middle of those names you just throw out there.

He's better than some of the other guys. Yeah, Angela Russell makes more. I mean, you know, 100%. Jalen Brunson. if he's the only guy the Nix bring in, then I can understand the skepticism. They're going to have to do more.

The Nicks, Ian Begley reported it on Tuesday, and I think he said it exactly right. You know, the Nix knows that Jalen Brunson alone is not going to point this team towards the Eastern Conference elite. They need more. But the Nicks need a point guard.

They need solidity. Solidity oozes out of Jalen Brunson. He is the definition of solid. And, you know, look, he's, you know, I'm obviously a fan. I've got to see him up close, got to see this kid's development. I mean, yes, you know, he's got defensive deficiencies. He's a small guard. You know, I think this probably puts to bed the Donovan Mitchell fantasies,

because I don't know that you can really have a Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell back for it defensively. But I think it's a, I think it's a good move for the Knicks. I really do. No, I agree with you. I do. I think for the next, it's also a necessary risk because even though he might be quote unquote overpaid, I mean, maybe not compared to some of the names that we're mentioning. But like the fact, the fact he is getting paid so much money. If there's reason for him to be better in New York, it's going to have to do with like them continuing to improve the roster to make it more like Dallas. They need more shooting. They need more spacing for Brunson to thrive the way he did with the Mavs. But I think to your point about him being really good. what did he do when Luca was out in December? He averaged like 21 and 7 at the time. He did a great job running their offense,

kept the team afloat. They were around 500 without Luca. During the postseason, he averages 22 points and four assists. And the thing that, like, when I talk to people around the league about, so what's Brunson going to get? What do you think about Brunson?

The thing people talk about is, well, he's proven in short spurts that he can do more with a higher usage. What happens over the course of a full season? And I think the numbers, I mean, the numbers are positive for him. He ran 20 pick and rolls per game in the postseason generated over one point per chance according to second spectrum.

He was great in isolations just like he was all year long. And if you look at the numbers, last season under Carlisle, he averaged 2.4 isolations per game. It doubled to 4.9 this past season. And then it was over 10 in the playoffs. So usage continued to go up, continue to thrive, you know, with his efficiency. So for the Knicks, they've played. They feel like they're paying $25, you know, plus million dollars for a guy that might average 23 points and eight assists for them.

That's probably the way they're envisioning him, not the guy who was, you know, playing second fiddle to Luca. Do you see Brunson as someone who can scale up and play a much bigger role successfully too? Yes, because I just, because you look at the steps that this guy's taken from where he was drafted 30 picks after Luca in 2018. And, you know, look, he had a really rough playoff. series against the Clippers. And when last season started, even in Dallas, people are questioning, you know, can this guy do it when it matters most? You know, has he already hit his ceiling? You mentioned December. Fast forward to April. People forget it now because the MAVs made it all the way in the conference finals, but they lose Luca Donchich to a calf injury in the last game of this season.

There was massive fear that they're now not even going to get out of the first round against the Utah that was reeling. And in back-to-back wins over Utah, Jalen Brunson scored 41 and 31. At least one of those games, maybe both, I don't think he had a single turnover. Maybe both, I don't remember it exactly, but at least one of those games,

not a single turnover. I mean, he, you know, for a guy who supposedly couldn't get it done in the playoffs, he won them two games. They don't win that series. Luca doesn't play until game four, or was it game five? They don't win that series without Jalen Brunson.

basically putting them in the league. So, you know, I think, and I think he will continue to improve because, you know, he just, I think the guy just lives the sport, lives the game, and, and we'll continue to do so. And I definitely want to add for Bill Simmons, Ryan Rissillo, this is a sweepstake. Look at the convo is generating.

Look at the moves. Look at all the trades. And there were more than, more than two teams. interested. This wasn't just Dallas and New York. Detroit and Indiana both had interest in Brunson. So, yes, this qualifies as a sleepstakes, gentlemen. Can I ask a quick aside question since you mentioned Indiana? Where's Malcolm Brogman going to go? I mean, he will be traded eventually, but I don't know where yet. I wish I did. I wish I could report I knew where he was going. They've tried to move him very clearly. And I to this point they haven't had success.

Now, it wasn't a total shock to me that it didn't happen at the draft because it does make sense that the offers could theoretically get better when the point guard musical chairs are over, and then we see who really needs a point guard. We don't know that yet because in air quotes, free agency has not yet started. So maybe in a few days we'll know who really needs a point guard and they'll finally find a trade home for Brogden.

But I wish I had that answer. So with Brunson, we agree it's a good signing for the Knicks in the sense that, you know, this is a good player. He's a reliable player. He's basically the type of point guard missing forever. He's not going to lead him to a championship, but, I mean, he's the type of guy who can help stabilize that team. Like you said, he solidifies them.

But on the Dallas side, and now they have to replace Jalen Brunson. And I think my main thought with this deal here is the Knicks are taking a risk in giving him that money, but the Mavericks could end up being better off without him because Spencer did witty. Maybe he can absorb a much bigger role. Tim Hardaway Jr. is coming back next season. He's going to play a role for that roster. Christian Wood, you add him the scoring presence that he can provide as a shooter outside, attacking closeouts, you know, rolling down the lane after screening for Luca. I mean, there's a chance Christian Wood can put up

all-star numbers and Luca's probably going to have a higher usage himself. So how do you replace Brunson? You mentioned signing Dragich on your

substack as a strong possibility as well. Is it, is it that much of a challenge to replace him for the Mavericks here? Am I underrating? How tough that's going to be?

Everything you said, if all that happens, yes, they can certainly replace him in the short term. I mean, Dinwiddie played tremendous, when he first got to Dallas.

Couldn't quite maintain that level, but nobody could. I mean, nobody's going to shoot, you know, no guard, although Brunson does shoot over 50% for the field. But,

Gidwitty started out like 55, 43, 90 with, you know, his first month, you know, that was never going to last forever. But yeah, look,

they've got Tim Hardaway Jr. coming back. And so theoretically, Gidwitty, Hardaway Jr. can make up, you know, make up some of what they're losing

but in the big picture you know you don't want to be this cynical about it but if the Mavericks decide Jalen Brunson that he's a potential key piece in a future trade they have nothing now beyond Dorian Finney

Smith that's really going to get other teams excited about future trades and they know in the grand scheme in the long term down the road they've got to get a second star that's why you heard them, you know, I reported right after the season ended how, you know, they had, as much as they knew it was a long shot,

they wanted to get involved in the Zach Levine sweepstakes before that sweepstakes really ended. And now everybody knows Levine is almost certainly going back to Chicago. The MADS know they need a second star. You can't persist like this long term, not in a Western conference where, you know, the clippers are going to be so much better, the Nuggets are going to be so much better. We don't even talk about the pelicans, how much better they're going to be.

So in the short term, can the Mavs compensate if, you know, if they sign Draggich and Hardaway comes back strong and Dinwiddie plays well, and Christian Wood is, you know, you are definitely the leader of the Christian Wood Optimist Society. So if that all plays out, yes. But this is a serious blow anyway you want to pay. So it's a serious blow. But like it seems like you're taking more of the long term. you're looking more through the long-term lens there.

Like, yeah, they can replace them short-term, but you're more worried about, well, what are you doing in 23, 24, 25? Yeah. If I'm, I mean, you know, look, they got to the conference finals, which was, you know, I'm not trying to take away.

That's a tremendous run. But how replicable is that? I mean, if you had to post your picks, I mean, you can't do it now because we don't know where all the pieces are going to land in this off-season market. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say, I don't think people are going to be picking Dallas to get back

to the final four next season. They wouldn't even if Brunson had stayed, they would have. That's a great point. They wouldn't have even with him. I mean, you're taking the sons, Grizzlies, warriors ahead of them. You mentioned the Pelicans getting better. What if Zion stays healthy the whole year? What if Kauai Lernan and Paul George are healthy into the playoffs?

What if John Wall is actually not so bad? The Mavericks need a pathway to a second star. And at this point, you know, they're going to have to wait until they have capital because, you know, they're, you know, if, again, I don't think, I never, I was not buying the notion that the, the, the nets were on the verge of trading Kevin Durant. I think if I'm the next, even had Kyrie bolted this week, I think I'm slow playing that before I have to do, but, you know, the Mavs weren't exactly high on the list of teams that, hey, they could get the Kevin Durant trade. I mean, you know, you look at what New Orleans could put on the table or a Phoenix or Chicago or, you know, we go, on and on and off. You know,

the Mavs are well down that list. And that's, that to me is what has to be concerned. Yeah, I feel you there. I think for Dallas, the one good part, though,

is had they signed Brunson to any deal, like around $100 million, over four years, whatever it might be, a $25 million annual salary, that would make it tougher for them to get to cap space in 2024 and 2025.

Because if they, right now, the way they're set up before, like, they hope they have to sign Christian Wood after the season, that it's a good deal for him. But they could be a cap team in 2024, even after doing that. They could be in 2025.

And that's with still more than one year left on Lucas Deal, because he doesn't expire until 2027. So I think, I mean, we're in agreement, short term, how he can be replaced in the long term risks not having him, you know, young player at $30 million number. But they could still down the line still package a hardaway plus Burton's or a hardaway plus dinwitty, you know, combination to get. to an appropriate cap number

in the event of a deal. But like you said, they just don't have a ton of assets in terms of extra draft picks or anything like that. If by that point, New Orleans or Oklahoma City, if those teams are good and ready to compete in a trade for a star, Dallas is going to get out bid.

Yeah, look, and maybe they would have anyway had they kept Brunson, but to me, like, to make any kind of significant trade, he probably would have had to be part of it. And it's just, it's hard for me to see what sort of significant trade they could even propose without it. Might have to be cap space in 24 then for that team.

And for the Knicks, you mentioned earlier how they could have more moves coming. You reported on your substack that DeJante Murray is a player that they could turn their attention to. How real is this DeJante Murray sweepstakes, if we want to call it that, Mark? Yes, I mean, we want to call this a sweepstakes. I the spurs were involved man so it's really hard to pinpoint where this thing is I mean

so many times over the last week he's going to Atlanta oh no wait maybe the Knicks are getting in here oh there's another like it's the spurs man I mean why are the spurs so hot to get off to Dante Murray I mean I've asked that question to so many people and I can't get a great answer

this is clearly gone beyond the spurs just want to gauge the values the value of their guy because it's just so out there now and maybe that's also a function of the climate that we live in now where you know almost nothing stays secret but both the spurs and the thunder are still pretty good at keeping their business under wraps and this is this is just so out there and you know i don't know how many more gregg seasons gregg popovitch is going to coach but like to trade you know we're we're 90 plus percent sure that Pop's going to be back next season.

He's trading Dejante Murray for a bunch of picks so they can get even younger and be even worse. Is that really what Pop wants to do at this point of his career? So the Spurs are a difficult read, man. If you got a better read, I would love to hear it because I'm struggling. It's not a push from Dejante's camp, is it? Like they clutch? There's nothing like that?

I mean, I guess it could be. I have not heard that, to be perfectly clear. I have definitely not heard that. but, you know, the asking price is said to be three firsts or maybe even more. I don't know. I don't know. I think with Murray, he's a good player. He's made an all-star team last year,

great pass or great defender, but I don't view him as untouchable, especially he only has two years left on his contract. The Spurs could be just trying to maximize value for a guy who after this season is going to be only one year away from his free agency. The curious thing about the Knicks connection, though, is if your big pitch to Jalen Brunson is we're giving you your own team, then you trade for Dejante Murray, it's not your team anymore. So that part doesn't necessarily add up, but I sure like the idea of Desjante Murray next to Jalen Brunson better than I do, Donovan Mitchell next to Jalen Brunson. Oh, for sure, with Brunson Mitchell, that team would be terrible defensively, just too small.

with Murray, like he's one of the best on that end of the floor throughout the whole regular season. But so with the pitch to Brunson, wouldn't it still be, you know, kind of his team? It's not like Murray's going to have a Luca level usage where he's just, you know, all over the ball, all game long. When we're talking the kind of dollars we're talking now, you know, if, you know, a hundred million was what I heard, you know, other people are saying 110. Let's see if it gets to 110 or does it fall a little bit short? that. But either way, 100. 100 over 4 million when you were the 33rd pick in

2018 and he just played this season on 1.8 million. So I think Jail will be okay with sharing the slot at that at that number. Are there any other targets to keep in mind for the Knicks? Well, I mean, I just think it's safe to say they're going to be

active and we know they are and they've stockpiled all these future first. The question is how good are the picks really? I mean, they have a lot of first, but are they are they premium? Will they get other teams pulses racing? I've heard kind of mixed reviews on that.

And a couple last things for Dallas. Why do they let the Josh Richardson trade exception expire if they knew Brunson could be leaving? Because they're going way into the tax. And I think once they made the move for Christian Wood that they knew

they were going to be pretty active in free agency, possibility of trades in free agency. And since there wasn't really any, you know, they would have loved to plug Mr. Tybal in there, but, you know, Philly's not just sending Tybal into a Dallas trade exception to get off him. And so they really want a big defensive wing, you know, someone like Tybal, I think Tybal would be the dream target.

But, you know, if they could have gotten Tybal in the trade exception, I think they would have used it. But there was also just nobody, you know, there was nobody that really was high on their wish list that was available. So that that's really what's spiked it. But from the moment that the Christian Wood train went down, it pretty much established the idea that they weren't going to use the trade exception. So with Dallas, there's no chance of them being a big sleeper for a beale or anything. We're talking more. Gary Harris, Tony Snell,

the Morris Twins. Those are the types of names we might be talking about for Dallas as their next move then. Yeah, I mean, I think they would probably love to get in the mix for Gary Payton, too, and Malik Munk,

but can they get those guys? I don't think so. I mean, I think to get, to get Gary Payton away from the Warriors, you're going to have to be, you're not the full mid-level, I would think.

I mean, I think the Warriors, will do what they have to do to keep, you know, I think Loonie's back there and I think they'll do whatever they can to keep young Peyton. And Malik Monk, I think he's already told, you know, Joe Von Buha

that he wants to stay a Lakers. So again, you have to think it's going to have to be a pretty sizable offer to get him away from the Lakers. Yeah, so the math, I mean, it's going to be difficult for the Mavericks to reach their off-season objectives, no question.

Last thought here, Mark, from our conversation, it seems to me that you view this as a massive loss of the Mavericks and more of a good calculated decision for the Knicks here to try to bolster team out with a solid point card. That's where you're coming from with Jalen Wilson. I would say that is accurate summation. Too bad for Luca. Man, it's tough to build a great team around a legendary player. Well, because the thing you have to say about Brunson is that

you know, he found a way to be so effective next to him. You know, not everybody, you know, that's not nothing, you know. The guy, I mean, he's become offensively really, you know, an interest, such a, he's really an interesting watch with how, you know, just his up and unders and how creative he is, getting the paint scored at his size. I mean, again, the leap he made from the previous season when the Clippers length is just, really, really tormented him to what he did

in these playoffs, especially against Utah, without Luca at his side. It was legit, legit stuff. He's a really good player and he figured out how to play next to a great one and that's where the Knicks that's just what they're missing. They have some good talent on their roster.

It's just they don't have that mega star yet. But I would say there's pressure here on the Knicks to. Leon Rose, this is his first big move. Jalen Brunson is stepping into, you know, the eye of the media storm and is going to be graded very, very, you know, it's going to be a much tougher landscape than he faces in Dallas where, you know, all the pressure and attention does fall on Lucas.

So, you know, Jalen Brunson and Leon Rose got to deliver here for sure. It's not going to be just plain, plain sailing. And second year in a row that they're signing a player to a big contract. that had one great season. They did it with Julius Randall. That didn't work out with his first year of that contract. They're doing it with Jalen Brunson after his great year that you mentioned in Dallas after he got way better than what he was previously.

So there is risk here. And it being going down as an outlier season, especially with the Knicks. They just don't have the amount of shooting and spacing that the Mavs have had for Jayland Brunson to thrive in the way that he did. So the Knicks, I mean, it could be, it could potentially be ugly early on. with him not performing up to the standard that was expected from him in Dallas

in terms of the scoring efficiency and the volume he's going to have. Yeah, look, it's a definite risk, but these are both franchises that have mostly met with free agent heartbreak for the last two decades. So, you know, the story is not over, but, yeah, I do see it as a worthy gamble for New York. I really do. Mark, I appreciate it coming on, man. The Void. Hopefully we'll meet up soon again in the Spotify

Live chamber. Absolutely would love to. And how can people find stuff on your substack, Mark? Please just go to markstein.substack.com. There's a free version. There's a paid version. But if you just, if all you can do is the free version, that still is going to get you several thousand words a week from.

So please check it out. And he's at the Steinline on Twitter. Thank you so much, Mark, for joining the void. Have a good day. All right, man, be good. Well, I'll be back on Friday with another episode of the mismatch with Chris Vernon. We're going to have a lot to talk about with NBA Free Agency. Maybe as Mark Stein mentioned, the Knicks will make another move by then.

Who knows, for DeJante Murray or somebody else, we'll see about that. I'm looking forward to it, man. Free Agency is always fun, even if we don't get any massive moves. There's no KD or Kyrie movement. It's still going to be a good time. So I'm looking forward to Friday with Chris Vernon. I hope you enjoyed today's episode of The Void. Thank you to Mark Stein for coming on.

you to Jesse Lopez for producing and thanks to you for listening. I hope you have a fun rest of your day. Please give the mismatch podcast feed a rating and review. Have a good one.