The Munk Debates Podcast - Be It Resolved: Don't Count Out President Trump’s Re-election Bid. He Has A Compelling Path To Victory On November 3.

Episode Date: September 23, 2020

Weeks to go to one of the most consequential elections in a generation and the incumbent, President Donald Trump, is facing an increasingly challenging political environment. His Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, has enjoyed a consistent lead in the national polls as well in many key swing states. Add in a pandemic that has killed over two hundred thousand Americans and the conditions are ripe for political sea change on November 3. But seasoned election watchers say it's far too early for the Biden's campaign to be measuring curtains for the White House. They argue that Trump has an enthusiastic and loyal base and a highly sophisticated digital campaign tailor made for getting out the vote. Throw in a late October surprise vaccine announcement and more good job numbers and Joe Biden could find himself joining Hilary Clinton as a defeated democratic nominee. Sources: AZ Family, MSNBC, CBS News, MSN, Fox News, ABC News, NBC, Yahoo NewsBecome a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

I think it's time for this toxic binary zero-sum madness to stop. We're not an imperial power. We're a revolutionary power. We are no longer in a world where you can plot out moves statesmen to statesmen like a chessboard. You don't know anything about my background to where I came from. It doesn't matter to you because fundamentally I'm a mean white man. We can't do this to the next generation because America will cease to exist. Welcome to the Monctubes. podcast. Every episode, we provide you with a civil and substantive debate on the big issues of the day. Free of spin, focused on the facts and animated by smart conversation. To arm you, the listener,

with enough information to make up your own mind. Today's debate, be it resolved, don't count out President Trump's re-election bid. He has a compelling path to victory on November 3rd. Well, the latest survey, Just out this morning from Arizona public opinion polls shows President Trump's support. It's actually fallen to 42%. The latest Fox News national poll shows Joe Biden with a five-point lead over Donald Trump, 51 to 46%. News polls reveal a tight presidential race and sustained skepticism over the president's handling of coronavirus. Our latest battleground tracker shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by nine points in Minnesota. Hello, I'm your moderator, Rudyard Griffiths.

Well, five weeks to go to one of the most consequential elections in a generation, and the incumbent, President Trump, is facing an increasingly challenging political environment. His opponent, Joe Biden, a Democrat, has enjoyed a consistent lead in the national polls, as well as in many key swing states. Throw in a pandemic that's killed over 200,000 Americans, and an economy with over 60 million people recently. filing for unemployment insurance, and it's fair to say that conditions are ripe for a political sea change come November 3rd.

I think Joe Biden, given his history, really does have the capacity to help us heal this nation, and he understands what it means to grieve, but he also understands what it means to get on the other side of it, and we need a president who will help us get on the other side of that. But seasoned election watchers say it's a little too early for the Biden campaign to be measuring curtains for the White House. They argue that Trump has maintained his capacity to surprise the pundit class. He has an enthusiastic and loyal base, a highly sophisticated digital campaign tailor-made to getting out the vote during a pandemic, and a storm the barricade's attitude to campaigning that has captivated public and media attention. He's also made surprising inroads with minority voters, most notably Hispanics.

Throw in a late October vaccine surprise announcement and more good job numbers. And Joe Biden could find himself joining Hillary Clinton as the defeated Democratic nominee. I think the enthusiasm for the president is higher than it was in 2016. I think Biden has a huge enthusiasm issue. And the other thing that I think is critical to point out about these polls is, is that Republicans are no longer responding to these polls. So I think there is an underpolled amount of Republicans that are highly enthusiastic for this president,

and I think we're going to see this on Election Day, November 3rd. On this installment of the Monk Debates podcast, we challenge the essence of these arguments by debating the motion, be it resolved, don't count out President Trump's re-election bid. He has a compelling path to victory on November 3rd. Arguing for the motion is Jeff Rowe, the founder of Axiom Strategies, a firm that specializes in congressional, senatorial, and statewide campaigns in the United States, helping elect over 74 congressmen, eight senators, and six governors. Most recently, he was campaign manager of Ted Cruz's run for president.

Arguing against the motion is Terry Sullivan, founding partner of the public affairs firm, Firehouse Strategies. Terry has played a senior strategic role in over 100 campaigns, including state, gubernatorial, and presidential campaigns. He's worked with some of the biggest names in politics, including Mitt Romney, and most recently Marco Rubio, whom he served as campaign manager on his presidential bid. Jeff, Terry, welcome to the Monk Debates podcast. Hello. Hey, how you doing? Wow, guys, a real treat to have your two big brains on the month. Monk Debate program today. I think our ability for our listeners, all of us, to learn from your

kind of storied campaign experience working across the United States at all levels of government, including with some really big public figures like Senator Ted Cruz for you, Jeff Roe, and Marco Rubio, a client of yours, Terry Sullivan. So let's jump into our debate. We've got a compelling resolution, I think, that's on everybody's minds these days. It's be it resolved. Don't count out President Trump's reelection bid. He has a compelling path to victory on November 3rd. Jeff, you're speaking in favor of our resolution today. So let's put two minutes on the clock and have your opening remarks.

Take us away. Sure, thanks. We've not had an election like this in our lifetime. We've had pandemics before. They're not routine, but they're not rare. We've had economic collapses before. We've had social and civil and racial unrest before. We've never had those all three in one year and have an election.

And so that's why you would think the fundamentals would be so poor for the incumbent president, regardless of who that president is. But we are in the middle of a pandemic. 200,000 Americans are dead. One 9-11 every three days. We see economic layoffs, the shutdown that ensued. nothing like that since the Great Depression, the civil unrest in cities all across the country. If this were the British Open, they would have already engraved Joe Biden's name on the jug

before the start of the final round. But the Democrats are blowing it, and they're used to doing that. They ran a convention where their entire message was an attack on the president's character, as if people haven't made their decision on Trump's character yet. They should have sucked the policy. They should have spent the whole time saying he wants to take away insurance for people, existing conditions or cutting Social Security or cutting Medicare. But now they made a big bet on COVID-19. And they made a big bet on the economy.

So that's a big risk to take with all the factors that are in their favor. Every single day that goes by and the economy gets a little bit better, the right track, wrong direction gets a little bit better. And the COVID numbers get better. And by that I mean the people that think that the worst of COVID is behind us or ahead of us. As those numbers approved, the president's numbers have improved. And we've already seen that. People talk about a natural tightening after Labor Day.

That's wrong. That's false. It tightens because the fundamentals of the race are getting better for the president from a very dark, brutal space. And as he makes that ground up, as the economy continues to improve, as COVID continues to improve, then this provides a very good path for the president to get reelected. Wow, Jeff. Thank you.

That is a concise and compelling argument for why we potentially, should not be counting out President Trump's re-election bid and why he could have a compelling path to victory on November 3rd. So over to you, Terry, you're arguing against our motion. Let's put two minutes on the clock and learn from you and your insights. Please, take us away. Certainly. I felt like, you know, the first 80% of Jeff's monologue there was making my argument for me. Look, the fact that the fundamentals here support Joe Biden winning are just so obvious. Yes, there are outliers. Yes, there are rare occurrences that, you know, we've never been in this type of pandemic situation and this kind of economic situation and the racial instability and protests. There are so many outside factors that are there I play here. But the fundamentals are that in the last 20 years, no candidate has led the national polls by this much 50 days out as much as Joe Biden has. Joe Biden is leading by 6.4 points on the clear politics average. That's national polls, and that's not state, but that's 7.4 point lead.

No candidate has had that at this point since 2000. In 2004, Bush led Kerry. If you look, Obama in 08, led Romney by 2008. Clinton only led at this point in time, 50 days out, Trump, by 3.9 points. So having a 7.4 point lead is huge on the national level. And then if you look at the state by state, if you give Donald Trump a four point advantages, give him an extra four points in every single state of the real clear politics average, Joe Biden still has 289 electoral votes with a four point advantage to Donald Trump in every single state poll. That's just, I mean, never in the last 20 years, talking about outliers and rare exceptions, never has there been a race that has had this clear of a frontrunner. We can make arguments that the Democrats didn't pick the

best candidate or aren't running the best convention around this, but the facts don't lie. The facts are that Joe Biden is in a far superior position to win this than Donald Trump. Terry, thank you. Boy, guys, I'm confused here. These are great opening statements. I don't know who's going to win. What the results are. You both have presented really compelling arguments. So let's have a chance for some rebuttals here, get a bit deeper into this debate. So, Jeff, come back on some of Terry's points here. What do you want to have an exception to and bring attention to our listeners in terms of a different way of looking at this? Sure. Terry bases his prediction and assumption, like most people do, on the horse race national polls. By the way, for the last 50 years,

that has been the way to do it. Now we've gone to where there's a prolific amount of polling. and what Terry was citing was likely an average of the prolific poll polling outfits that are out there. There's some that lean Republican, there's some lean Democrat, and then there's some that they just say they're neutral. Take a gander at that real quick. Let's start with the baseline, and this will tell the entire story, in my opinion, the baseline of how you poll. There's an art and there's a science. But let's just start with the most likely predictor of how people are going to vote, which is, do they characterize themselves as Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

So in 2012, the Republican registration on Election Day was 31, Democrat 33, Independent 36. Of course, we lost in 2012. In 2016, it was 32 Republican, 34 Democrat, 34 Independent, and of course, the President one. So we have two different election cycles. And with essentially, the registration advantage is two. two points to the advantage of the Democrats. Now let me tell you how Quinnipiac is polling right now, today, nationally and in most states. Republican 24, Democrat 34, independent 34. Now, I'm not making this up. They put these numbers out, but they have Republicans at eight point disadvantage.

Now let's go to Monmouth, another neutral quote unquote survey research firm. They have Republicans 29, Democrats 39, Independence 39. Both these surveys have a 10-point Democrat lead with the last two presidentials, and even going back to 08, where it was a four-point Democrat advantage. It just doesn't simply align with partisan turnout in presidential elections. Now let's look at the Republican survey in the field. The widely mocked Rasmussen poll, what do they have? 33% Republican, 37% Democrat, 30% independent. So when you take a look at polls, liars figure and figures lie,

and boy, do I believe that more in polling than I ever have. These main, I didn't even throw in New York Times, Wall Street Journal polls. I didn't even throw in ABC, NBC, CBS, just I'm embarrassed for them. But those are what make up the big polls that people view the race through nationally, and they simply don't align with history.

Thanks, Jeff. So, Terry, your opportunity to have a rebuttal here. You can either address the points that Jeff was just making. I think one thing, if I'm a listener here, tuning in to both you guys, I do have some questions about polling. And I'd be curious to know, Terry, what you think about the accuracy of polls today and whether we can take them to the bank or not. I think the first thing is I have a question for Jeff, which is, you know, you've run, you know, hundreds of campaigns just like I have. And my question would be, have you ever felt, like your candidate was winning and therefore thought it would be a good idea to put them on an hour-long primetime television town hall with the moderator being a Democrat operative in a territory in the country that is going to be naturally hostile to you so that these people can just ask your candidate questions for a solid hour. In what may have been the toughest questioning of this president yet. Donald Trump tonight took questions from undecided voters at a town hall anchored by George Stephanopoulos of ABC News. And I want to know what it is that

you're going to do to assure that people like me who work hard, we do everything we're supposed to do, can stay insured. It's not my fault that I was born with this disease. We are not going to hurt anything having to do with preexisting conditions. You fought to repeal Obamacare. You are Well, I essentially did because you're arguing the Supreme Court right now to strike it down. That would do away with preexisting conditions. No, so that we can do new health care. But you've been promising a new health care plan. Have you ever been in a situation where you felt like you were winning by so much or you felt

so comfortable in your lead that you thought as a campaign manager, that was a good idea? Whoever did that needs to be fired. I think I know who did it. And I don't think it was a campaign strategy. I think it was a personal relationship with a high-ranking. making Trump official who would dare put him on any show like that. That's imbecilic, idiotic. I think it's a dumb mistake since DeCoccus entertained.

Yeah, look, we're on the same page on that, but my point would be with my question is, if they thought they were winning, something tells me that they would have not done that. The president would not have done that. He wouldn't have subjected himself to that. I mean, we can argue all sorts about his opinion, but understanding the media, he understands just enough to know that that was not a favorable environment and was never going to be. the only time you do something like that is if you are behind the eight ball. You've got to take some dramatic risks because you don't see a clear, safe path to victory. You feel like you're behind. And the only

way to do this is to start taking some big risks like a prime time town hall to try to draw your opponent out. It's not just the fake numbers that you're talking about, Jeff. It's Donald Trump's internal campaign numbers that have him down. And Joe Biden's numbers clearly have him up because the biggest knock on him is he's hiding out in his basement. And the only time you hide a candidate out in their basement and hide them from the media and shield them is because you've got a lead and you want to run out the clock. It's the posture of these two campaigns. One has the posture of a commanding lead. The other has a posture of being desperate and behind in the polls. So don't take the polls words for it. Don't take mine. Just look at the campaigns. So just real quick,

back to that. First of all, I think you're giving the campaign way too much credit. I think that was a personal relationship with a senior person that set the date, didn't know when the, you know, when the Abram Accords would be signed, just go down to senior campaign teams, LinkedIn profiles, and see who matches up with George Stephanopoulos, and that's who did it. Second, I don't disagree as far as the Biden in the posture for sure looks like this. I'd agree with you. But here's what I think is what we might be missing.

I don't think Biden wants to get COVID because that would be a really hard political hit. And he doesn't have the trappings of the president. He doesn't get an instant test with everyone that gets within, you know, 50 feet of him. And so Biden doesn't have the infrastructure. They don't have the same setup. I think that's the reason why they're hiding out in the basement. I don't think it's really much more than that. And I also think it's because, you know, they feel like for quite some time they've had a lead.

But you've seen as he started traveling, he just makes a mistake. I have a mistake from, you know, mariachi bands on his iPhone to Vuey Black. I mean, it's a bad deal. And the reality of it is the campaign is now forcing him to get out. And I think that's where he makes his mistake. Great insight, Jeff. Guys, let's move into the moderated middle of this conversation because I think there's a lot of questions here top of mind for our listeners. And, you know, both of you have run presidential campaigns, Terry, in your case for Marco Rubio, Jeff, in your case for Ted Cruz.

So you really know this electoral map like few people do. And I want us to talk about Florida because it's a really interesting state right now. from our NBC mayor's poll of Battleground Florida. And guess what? It is a dead heat. Not virtually. It is a dead heat. 48, 48 among likely voters in the state.

It's critical to the electoral map for President Trump. And boy, it would be a big win for Biden if you could get it into his column. So, Terry, you know, Marco Rubio hails from Florida. I figure you know a thing or two about the Garden State. Tell us what do you think is going on there? And is that a bit of a barometer for the larger rate? Can we make any predictions about what we're seeing this tightening in Florida in terms of what could happen nationally? Yeah, look, the fact is that if Trump doesn't win Florida, this race is over, there is no other path to victory.

I don't think Jeff would even disagree with me on this, that the map becomes almost impossible or unsustainable to get to 270 without Florida in it for Donald Trump. But the fact that he's down there is a real problem for him. He needs to spend every day in Florida until he can get those numbers back up to a safe spot because it doesn't matter if he wins Pennsylvania and Wisconsin or any of these other states if he loses Florida. And whereas problem is that Florida is such a diverse state. A lot of these other states, you know, they're more homogenous within the state, whereas Florida is more representative of America.

If you look at the I-4 corridor, which everyone says is the key to winning Florida and a swath across the interstate that runs across the state. It has everything from huge senior citizen retirement communities to huge Hispanic communities in the Puerto Rican community to good old fashioned rednecks and conservative Americans. And I say that in the best possible way because I am one. The different demographics that spread across this state is what makes it very unique and is a bit of a example of the national electorate. So the fact that the president's having trouble there is a real warning sign for his campaign.

Jeff, let's get your take on Florida and maybe the glass half full argument. The reason why Florida is so critical is because of its representation of America. And it's the compelling theory for a Democrat and to run for president is that they have to get 85% of 35% of the vote. And so roughly the country, 65% percent, white, 35% non-white. So Democrats have to get 85% of 35% and Republicans have to get 65% of 65%. If those things happen, that's a slight popular vote win for the Democrats and a typical electoral college win for the Republicans. And what you're seeing across the board is that President Trump, he's getting better with non-white voters than any president.

for quite some time. The reason why that's happening is because they're seeing this kind of strong Republican law and order president that Biden has made him. And so they've seen that and they respect that. And they're reacting to that. And it is allowing the president to get a bigger share, certainly in the high 20s, low 30s of non-white voters overall to vote for him. And that is most pronounced in a critical key state of Florida. Now, by the way, I mean, the president's not doing as great with whites. I mean, he's, you know, he's not at 65% yet. There's a lot of undecided.

And that's why as COVID gets better, and those senior whites get more comfortable, believe that Trump's doing a better job with it, as they believe the worst of coronavirus is behind them instead of ahead of them. I think it's a real problem for Biden. But I certainly agree there ain't no path without Florida. Thanks, Jeff. I think another thing that listeners really love, your take on both of you is this whole controversy and pretty maybe profound effects on the election of voting by mail and how this could advantage or disadvantage these two different parties.

And Terry, maybe just to start with you, I mean, there's an argument out there. Again, we'll have to take all the polling with a grain of salt here, but it seems to suggest that Republicans are much more confident about voting in person versus Democrats who want to use mail-in ballots. how do you think that could potentially affect Biden's campaign here? And could it play to an advantage for Trump with strong numbers on election night because his voters have gone to the polls and cast that ballot and it's been registered by officials on election day? Well, I think it's a great question. I think there's two important takeaways. One is the fact that the president consistently going after early voting is

doing real damage to his campaign in Florida, where Republicans always outperform Democrats in early voting. So the fact that he keeps talking down how it's safe, you know, that you're going to lose your vote and all this stuff is just bizarre because in the critical must-win state of Florida, Republicans do better at it traditionally than Democrats. So discouraging those seniors who don't want to go stand in line, who traditionally vote absentee, discourage. Discurrishing discouraging them from doing it is only going to hurt his campaign in a must-win state. But I think conversely, look, I think the country needs to be prepared for Donald Trump's best numbers to be when the polls close or shortly thereafter, the polls close.

And then as these electoral or as these absentee votes start being counted, Biden's numbers are going to go up and it's going to create a real problem within the country because I can't imagine a scenario where Donald Trump doesn't declare victory on election night, regardless of what the numbers are, and or claim that the election was rigged against him. It's just not in his DNA to say, oh, gee, guys, sorry, I lost fair and square. Good race, Joe, you know, best of luck to you. I want to help.

So we can really look at, regardless of the outcome on election night, when everyone goes to bed, this thing's going to drag on and it's going to be pretty ugly. Thanks, Terry. What's your take, Jeff, on the play out here in the effects of mail-in ballot versus voting in person and just the effects of the pandemic on these different electorates because, you know, it seems like Republicans are, for either reasons of politics or public health, they're just much more comfortable going to the polls in person. Could that actually end up suppressing the Democratic vote, just simply less Democrats vote in

total because they're worried about the effects of COVID. They haven't gotten themselves organized to take advantage of early voting. So that leads to an election day, edge for Trump in this campaign. So I think that there's an advantage, but I don't agree with the premise. I don't think that there's going to be a stifling of the vote. I think it's going to be the biggest turnout in American history. I mean, one, but because of population growth, but two, because, you know, there's not a lot of undecides here.

There's pretty good motivation on both sides. and there's more ways to vote. There's really four ways to vote. Every state doesn't have these options. Some states do. Florida does. But you have absentee, right? They send you the ballot. You get a notarized. Then there's early in person where they open up locations.

You can walk in at any time for typically between 20 and 30 days out. Then there's vote by mail, which is what you're discussing. And then there's election day. Now, historically, absentee is pretty split partisan-wise. early in person has been a Republican advantage, mostly seniors that don't want to vote on election date because it's kind of hectic and stand in line. So that's been a softly Republican advantage over 2.5% Republican advantage as far as participation. And then you have vote by mail, which is about a three and a half point advantage for Democrats. And then you have election day, which that's kind of the wins of the electorate. So there's no real advantage,

disadvantage there. You're going to hear about this explosive Democrat vote by mail participation. Now, it's actually already happening in North Carolina. There's a lot of votes that's already been cast in North Carolina. North Carolina is kicking off the 2020 presidential election today as the first state to mail out absentee ballots to voters for the general election. More than 643,000 voters in North Carolina have requested mail and ballots so far that's 17 times the number of requests compared to this time back in 2016. But let me take the one thing that you could have actually. hurt the Democrats, is that when you vote by mail and you send it back in, the only way they know that it's you truly is signature verification. And so you want to talk about a hot, flaming pile of

poo. I sign stuff and send it in. I don't recall how I signed my driver's license. I don't recall how I signed my Social Security card. I don't recall how I signed my draft form or my election registration and so they're going to take these signatures and compare them to how they filled out their voter registration card which could have been by the way 20 years ago and there's going to be I mean already there's been about 20,000 votes that have not been counted because of signature verification in North Carolina alone now you can cure the what they call cure those that you can find out they submit a list the parties get them they actually go out to see the person's House, but still, you can have some impact along that way.

And then Terry's right on Election Day. They count the absentee first. And then they count the early in person, second, another Republican advantage. And then they count Election Day. And then they start counting the vote by mail. And then some places let you just post-Barker by Election Day. So you've got three or four days of mail travel. So, yeah, there's almost without a doubt, we're going to see a Trump lead on election night.

There's almost no doubt. And then that will whittle down and he'll either win or lose closely, in my opinion. Obviously, I think he's going to win or can win. And you're going to have what Terry outlined. That's the most likely scenario. That's not the most unlikely, oh, the sky's falling scenario. It's the most likely scenario. And then we have the big litigation in how you sign your voter registration form 20 years ago

versus how you signed your ballot when you sent it in. And that is an eye there. Wow, guys, this is sobering stuff. Just as we move towards closing statements, I think it would be helpful for the listeners to get a sense from both of you about what they could be looking for in the coming weeks to try to understand the likelihood of this president's reelection. What are some of the key signposts? And maybe Terry, to go to you first to get those signposts that suggests really that it's not in this president's grasp to achieve reelection. What are those key indicators? I think the, and I don't know if this is as much.

an indicator as it is a threshold that he and his campaign has to pass in order to turn this thing around is they've got to put down the shovel. To Jeff's point, we could debate why they did the ABC debate, but it was not helpful to their campaign or to his candidacy on a day when he would have otherwise had really good news coverage, some of the best he may have had in months, why he decides he needs to hold an immediate press. conference to denounce the Center for Disease Control to dominate the news media on a day that could have been about how Joe Biden looked tone-deaf, borderline racist for playing songs on his iPhone, and just really looked kind of out of it. That could have dominated the news media. Instead,

you know, what dominated is him picking a fight with his head of CDC. Earlier today, Dr. Redfield, I said that the vaccine for the general public, likely would not be available until probably next summer, maybe even early fall. Are you comfortable with that time? No, I think he made a mistake when he said that. It's just incorrect information. If he's going to prosecute the case against Joe Biden, he has to stop making this about him every single day

and allow Joe Biden's mistakes and gaffs to have air to breathe and to get coverage. and he's drowning them out with his nonstop quest to drive headlines. He needs to allow Joe Biden to drive some headlines. If this race becomes about Joe Biden and whether people want him to be their president, he's got his best shot of winning. But as long as he's making this race a referendum on his personality and himself, he's putting himself in the worst possible position and he continues to do it every single day. So until he gets some discipline, which I'm not optimistic happens,

where his campaign can advise him and get in line to stop doing this, he's got no clear path. I got it, Terry. Good insights now. Jeff, let's get the opposite route from you. What are some of the positive indicators that you think listeners should be looking for to see that Trump's campaign is on track to win on November 3rd? The heartbeat of any presidency is the right track wrong direction. And that number bottomed out in April. And at that time, the right track, do you think the country's on the wrong direction? And that number bottomed out in April. And at that time, the right track, do you think the country's on the right track, was 15%, which is, just to put in context, this thing typically hovers around, you know, kind of 50, 50, but 15%, it's a historic low. The wrong direction number was about, you know, in the mid-60s. I think on election, as the election gets closer, if that number gets over 30, and right now, depending on the poll you look at, and again, liar's figure, figure's lie, but most,

reliable internal surveys have that number in the mid to low 20s. For about every five points that that gets better, I think the president gets probably a point. The latest Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service battleground poll is out and finds President Trump facing eroding support on a number of issues among those findings. Just 23% feel the country is headed in the right direction. with 72% saying it is on the wrong track. So I'd watch that, right track, wrong direction. The second number that I would look at, it's Pew started, and I'm not a big Pew fan,

but they started tracking this, do you believe the worst of coronavirus is ahead of you or behind you? And that number has become a leading, not lagging indicator for the presidential ballot. If that number gets to the mid-40s, I think that's a good number for Trump. Mid-40s being 45% or more of the people think that the worst of COVID is behind us. The biggest issue in the campaign right now is the economy and COVID,

and the right track, wrong direction speaks to the economy, and the COVID numbers obviously speak to COVID. So those are two things I think you watch. I think you can take the, everybody's going to stare at the ballot and wonder how that is. But I think a leading indicator is what direction those numbers are moving from a right track wrong direction and the best versus the worst of coronavirus ahead of you. You're listening to the Monk Debates podcast. If you like this podcast, check out our other episodes,

including debates on everything from the U.S. election, to the impact of the financial bailout on the economy, to whether Sweden is the model for how to fight this pandemic and the next. All free to download or stream on our website, monkdebates.com. You guys have been super generous with your time. And just before we go to closing, I would be remiss if I didn't just take advantage of the opportunity for both of you to step back from a moment from this particular race. And I'm just conscious that you've run literally dozens and dozens of high-level campaigns, both of you across the United States.

You're part of a political culture that, you know, sometimes puts on the brass knuckles when it comes to winning. because let's face it, if you ain't winning, you're losing. And in politics, that means, you know, DOA, your career, your ideas, your agenda is over. And I'm just wondering what you guys both think about this moment that you're at in America. Are you worried about the political fabric of the country? It's something that you've been intimately involved with, both of you, in pulling and stretching and reworking over the last number of decades. and maybe I could just ask you for your reflections on that at a high level.

Terry, go to you first, then Jeff, and then we'll go to closing statements. Yeah, I think it's a little easier for me to answer this than Jeff, and I don't mean that as a shot at all, in that I don't work for political candidates anymore. After 2016 cycle, I just decided that 20 years of doing this and working for political candidates was enough, and that I was going to just focus on corporate clients and trade associations and causes that I believed in.

and not candidates for office. And I do. I think we've, I think that we as a nation are in a tough spot. We shouldn't be proud of where we're at. I don't know that I necessarily blame. I know a lot of folks who are in my position who've got out of running campaigns and candidates. I want to go out and self-flagellate and say, you know, oh, this is awful. I'm embarrassed. I was part of this. I was such a bad person. But now I'm enlightened and I'm going to be in the New York Times saying how awful I used to be, but now I'm good. The reality is the American electorate has played a major role in taking us in this way. The news media has taken a major role in taking us in this direction.

Candidates and campaign staff as well. There is plenty of blame to go around, but I don't think it's just, oh, those evil campaign operatives that have put on the brass knuckles. Campaign operatives play to what these people want and what the voters are asking for. And so to that extent, I think there's plenty of blame to go around about where we're at. None of us should be proud of it. But we are where we are. And we have to look forward to try to try to be civil and realize that a lot more binds us than divides us.

Thanks, Terry. Jeff, what's your take on what you do and the extent to which, you know, you're a participant here in this high anxiety moment in American politics? I mean, we've been here before. I think the Republic is pretty sturdy. voters figure this stuff out. I just don't think it's that bad. Here's what I do think. Republicans and Democrats, we are different people.

The polarization is from the people, not the parties, and not the political figures or operatives for sure. We don't watch the same movies. We don't watch the same television channels. We don't go to the same

restaurants or eat at the same taco trucks. We go to different schools. We go to different schools. We live in different zip codes. Like, we don't do anything with Democrats very much anymore. It's the people. It's not the politicians. And because of that, I think we're going to cohabitate just fine.

Our Republicans sturdy. We're going to make big decisions every four years and what direction our country's going to go. And I think we're going to be just fine afterwards. You know, but one thing I think I hope that Jeff and I can agree on is that actually Democrat taco trucks are actually better, generally tastier taco trucks than Republican ones. Like a lot better. Yeah, definitely.

Yeah. I just take off my, you know, You know, Make America Great again. The hat off. Right, especially breakfast burritos in Austin are way better than, than frankly, anywhere else. And if they're in Austin, they've got to be liberal taco trucks. Exactly.

Hey, hey, guys. I like this. A moment of bipartisan across the aisle gastronomy to take us to our closing statement. So, Terry, you're going to go first, two minutes on the clock. Just sum up at the key points you want this audience to leave with to, again, reflect on our resolution. You've been arguing against it. Be a resolved. Don't count.

out President Trump's reelection bid. He has a compelling path to victory on November 3rd. Let's get your closing statement. I don't think there is a compelling path. There is a very narrow path. And again, it's don't take my word for it. Look at the posture of the Biden campaign, the posture of the Trump campaign. I disagree with Jeff's premise that the polling is intentionally bias because they're a business just like anything else that they want to brag that they were right. it serves no purpose for them to be biased. I think public polling can be inaccurate or miss the mark, but I think they strive to try to make the mark. And I think there were problems last time that they corrected in how they're doing it this time. But at the end of the day, there is nothing data point-wise that you can say,

I'd rather be managing Donald Trump's campaign than Joe Biden's campaign. Everything points to Joe Biden having a far better chance to win this thing. Thanks, Terry, for that closing statement. Jeff, we're going to give you the last word. with two minutes on the clock. Take us away. Well, I appreciate you all having us today. I also appreciate Terry making the case for Joe Biden. You know, it's not surprising. Terry's always with the liberal in the race, so I get used to it.

So, you know, Biden's run a tactically smart campaign. The president's campaign has not. He's let the president's campaign step on their own message time after time. He's let Trump make it a referendum on Trump. But this is the time. that the players matter. And the fact of the matter is Donald Trump's a better candidate than Joe Biden.

He draws a contrast better. Voters are more motivated for him than Democrats are for Joe. Base enthusiasm matters. The first person to get to 70 million votes. If you just said that's the only measurement, we don't care who wins or by how much we care about who could get 70 million people to vote for them. First, I'd take Donald Trump every single time. He doesn't have to win the popular vote.

He just got to draw close enough in the popular vote to win the electoral college. You know, and if you talk about debates, I think because of the split of the electorate and what we talked about with viewing habits and eating habits and everything else, the debates are really going to matter. I think it's going to rival the Super Bowl nearly in viewership, particularly the first one. And this is actually the time when all the punditry and the heightened introspection on who's running, who's campaign, and who's doing what television at, and all that kind of goes away. And it just becomes a straight-up horse race. and it's a horse race between two men, two men in their 70s, who's got better stamina, who's got better control, who can debate better, rally better, motivate better, draw better contrast.

If you got a guy and you got to give one of those two men the ball at the goal line to get it over the top, I mean, I think I'm rolling my dice at the Trump casino, and I think the president's got a real shot to win, a real shot to bring it home, And I think Joe Biden is a very weak horse to ride at the end. Hey, Jeff, thank you. Guys, I got a proposal for you. I mean, in addition to the Monk Debates podcast, I think we should start the Terry and Jeff podcast on U.S. politics. You're a terrific pair.

I really appreciate the civility, the substance. Just your breadth of knowledge of this topic clearly is exceptional. And this conversation has just truly been in service of our thousands. thousands and thousands of listeners. So thank you guys for coming on the Monk Debate podcast. Thanks for having us. Hey, thank you. Take care. Well, that wraps up today's debate. I want to thank our participants again, Jeff Rowe and Terry Sullivan for coming on the show for a spirited and highly topical debate. You certainly

gave me a lot to think about. The Monk Debates podcast is that special place for civil and substantive debate of the big issues of the day, as we've just heard, to listen to more debates on everything from climate change to religion to geopolitics, the big topics like the future of human progress, visit our website, monkdebates.com. You can also find show notes on today's debate. Thank you for helping us bring back the art of public debate one conversation at a time. I'm your moderator, Rudyard Griffith. The Monk Debates are produced by Antica Productions and supported by the Monk Foundation. Rudyard Griffiths, Marilyn

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