The Munk Debates Podcast - Friday Focus: Double Down

Episode Date: September 23, 2022

Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This week’s edition of Friday Focus does a deep dive into the latest news out of the Ukraine War. What are we to make of Russia’s mobilization of 300,000 or more former military personnel? How is this escalation of the war likely to play out in the months to come? And possibly more worrying, what are the implications of Putin’s stark language this week with regards to the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory and his assertation that he is “not bluffing”? Are we at heightened risk of violating the seventy-five-year-plus international taboo on the use of nuclear weapons? And, just how important is this taboo to international peace and security in the 21st century? This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

These statues have to come down. It's always been a pandemic of the unvaccinated. The problem now is it's a pandemic of the willfully unvaccinated. Falling birth rates are good. They're good for our planet. They're good for our societies. We're not responsible for the escalation with Russia. We're not the ones who invaded Ukraine.

I don't think it's fair to portray people of color as victims. It is a very dangerous time in American politics. Hello there. Welcome to Friday Focus, the regular podcast. of the Monk debates where we dig into the big issues and ideas moving the news, shaping the public conversation with Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs, and internationally acclaimed author and scholar. Janice, great to be in dialogue with you this week. And great to be with you, Roger, and what moved the news this week was Russia.

that's what we're going to dedicate this episode to. Before we begin, just a big thank you to all the monk members out there who have made a generous donation to support the Friday Focus podcast. As I mentioned on our previous show, next month in October, Friday Focus, the full length editions of this podcast, this program, will be available exclusively to Monk donors for as little as $25 a year. year, 50 cents an episode, what a steal. You can enjoy the full-length editions of Friday Focus. We'll continue to release, you know, more than just a teaser, a good taste of the show for everyone to listen to on our regular podcast fee. But if you want to be part of the community, we're building here at Friday Focus. We've got a whole bunch of ideas for the fall for our donors, our listeners, and really hope that you can be part of the civil and substantive conversation.

that we're having with Janice Gros Stein every Friday. So again, do that right now on our website, triple W monkdebates.com. You'll see a little button up in our navigation on the top right of the site. It says Friday Focus, click that. I'll take you through the steps to become a donor. We thank you in advance for your generosity.

Just before you move on, Roger, I actually follow those instructions. I saw Janice. I got a report. And they are easy. It is an easy button to press. And I am a great believer, as you know, that you have practiced what you preach and as a supporter of civil conversation. I walked down those steps.

It took exactly 60 seconds. Nice. Well, thanks to the Monk Debate team for pulling that all together. And again, you do get a Canadian charitable tax receipt. if you are a resident in Canada or if you're a resident abroad who's filing a Canadian tax return. We will give you one. The Monk Debates is a charity generously supported by the Peter and Melanie Monk charitable foundation. But like every charity, you want a bit of a market check, Janice.

You want to know that other people value what you do. So this is, you know, in some ways a little bit of an experiment for us to just test what do people think Friday focus is worth. Is it part of their routine for staying informed and on top of the news? We certainly enjoy doing the program. Give us a donation. It shows to us and the Bunk Foundation that this is a valuable public service. Janice, let's dig into the topic that I want to address with you today. It's been almost a month since we've had a discussion and update on the Ukraine War.

and this week a bunch of things happened that I think you and I have been worried about, you know, for some time, a significant escalation of the war and an escalation in directions that can only be described as dangerous and risky for some pretty important principles around international security. So let me start with what I think all of our listeners feel was the key news this week, not simply the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of new Russian troops, but remarks by Russia's head of state, Vladimir Putin, the individual who has the sole and complete authority for the use of Russia's nuclear arsenal, making some very, I can only describe as aggressive and disconstrable. comments that the Kremlin would, quote, certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It is not a bluff, close quote. How are we to interpret this? There was a curious sequence of events, right? And let me say just off the top, I think the mobilization is the more serious

indicators and the threat. So we'll come back to that in a minute. But he potentially put it in a somewhat weird way. And he connected the dots this way. He talked about the referendums that are coming. And there will be four referendums that will take place throughout most of the territory that Russia has occupied since February. And he then said, if we win those referendums, those territories will be part of Russia and then went on to say the West is exerting nuclear blackmail against us. And if they continue to do so, we will depend Russian territory with nuclear weapons. And that is not a bluff. So how do you read that? And by the way, his threat, and this was more concerning, was repeated by Medvedev.

So you can't just say this is Putin at his most irrational. We're seeing that it's much more than Putin. Right. And Dimitri Medvedev, you know, spelled it out in more precise terms, saying in effect that these territories will be sovereign Russian soil. And he used the phraseology kind of worryingly strategic, they will fall into the protection of the strategic Russian nuclear arsenal, which again, different than tactical. We're talking about the strategic forces that are aligned against not just NATO and Europe,

but the United States in the continental United States. So it's the McVethra, the statement that I actually thought was much more concerning than Putin's because he was more explicit. And you're right. The discussion up till now has been all about. about will Putin use a tactical nuclear weapon, removed from the battlefield somewhere to send a signal to the United States, but how serious he is, Meddanov's threat was much more. Now, let's start with the reassuring news. Not a single Western intelligence agency has

seen any evidence, including the United States, has seen any evidence that the Russians have moved, have made a, you know, there's no movement at all to ready any kind of nuclear weapon here, and that matters because what you see is often a better predictor than what you hear. Nevertheless, I think if you put this picture together, we are in a different world this week than we were a week ago. because Putin has fundamentally said, I'm in this for the long haul. These territories will be part of Russia. I am putting my stake in the ground here.

And if you, Ukraine, continue to try to claw back territory, frankly, that we took from you, it is no longer yours, it's ours, this is an attack against the motherland. So he has hugely elevated the stakes. And he's calling everybody's bluff here. Now, what do you do? And just to walk this back for a minute, when the Ukrainians launched that lightning offensive when they found a hole in the Russian lines,

poured through it and took back in five days would have taken the Russians much to all. occupy, people said, okay, this is a turning point in the war. Well, you and I did not think that. And I just held my breath and waited for what Putin would do. And what Putin did this week, unmistakably, double down. And there's a strong. And that's why I take the mobilization so seriously. So let's talk about that for just one second right here. The mobilization is real. It is costly to him. It is very risky. And for all our listeners, if your memory goes back to when Americans last took to the streets to protest a war, they didn't do it really over Iraq. They

didn't do it over Afghanistan, but they did over Vietnam because it was a draft at that point. And when the United States finally moved away from the draft, people fundamentally went home for all intents of purposes. Putin is putting his regime. He put his regime at risk this week by doubling down on, by mobilizing Russians and by upping the ante for NATO and for the United States. No question. And he's really saying, I am in this.

There is no, there's no exit route from this war. Don't count on me to back down. I urge listeners, there's a lot of video on Twitter and elsewhere of just heartbreaking scenes in small Russian towns and communities of that classic image of women and children, you know, crying with their husbands outside of, you know, buses as men who, I guess according to this draft, have had previous military. training are conscripted. And looking at those videos, I agree with you, Jess, you think, again, the risk that Putin is running here, that this is deeply unpopular, that many of these people will unfortunately go to their deaths in Ukraine and the anger in these communities. And many people often think of Russia as a very monolithic state. It's not. It's a federation.

And historically, Russia's had more problems, you know, staying together because of just the geography and ethnicity and language and all the things that, you know, pull at federation. So I agree with you. I was worried about the mobilization because it made me think this is a regime now that's running real risks. And it's a regime that is. putting now, in a sense, civilians who did not want to be part of this war into the war. And in a sense, Russia is now engaged in the war on a whole new level. And I think it lowers Russia's tolerance going forward for setbacks and any percent. received defeat. And hence, I think there was something sinister, but logical about the linking

of the language around mobilization with new and dangerous language around, I'm not bluffing, I will use nuclear weapons if we are at risk of defeat because the stakes now have been materially and substantively raised for me as the leader, but also, in a sense, the country, the country Russia is putting way more on the line now than it was doing before. So, Janice, I look at this and I just, I worry again that, you know, it's kind of a frog and a pot here. Yep. We can sit and each week goes by or each month goes by and, you know, we can say to ourselves, well, you know, he's just bluffing or, you know, the war will, you know, play itself out. the two sides will exhaust each other or Ukraine will win and eject all the Russian troops from

their territory. But instead, I see a more kind of dangerous logic unfolding of escalation and conflict, which after all is the historical norm. If you look back through history, you know, there's unfortunately a kind of a teleology, to use a fancy word, about how and why wars happen and how they unfold. I completely agree with you, Rudyard. Look, this is not a new story when one side gains a major tactical advantage. And that's what Ukraine did, tactical. You know, people who said, oh, the war is over because the Ukrainians broke through, there's a big difference between tactical advantage and a big strategic change in the battlefield.

And for me, it was the first, and I was just holding my breath, expecting Russia to escalate. Now, this is a major escalation. Those pictures you talked about, Roger, are very interesting. if you have the chance, spend a little time scrolling around the web to find these pictures because where are they from? They are from east, the most eastern parts of Russia, the ones that are circulating on the web right now.

The far east, you know, Dagestan, Siberia, they are nowhere near. So from what we're seeing the mobile, and again, he's trying to minimize the risk that he knows is going to come at him, the political risk, from mobilization. So he's starting in the east, furthest from Moscow,

furthest from the heartland of Russia in an effort to diffuse somewhat the anger that he knows is going to sweep Russia as a result of this mobilization. But here's the paradox. The soldiers that are being put on those buses to be transported to the front are the least willing to fight this war. This is not theirs. They are far away. They are not. You know, Eastern Russian-speaking Ukrainians or borderland Russians who are close to Ukraine who might be motivated to fight. Second thing that's really important about this mobilization, yeah, they've had combat training. But wow, when you pull reservists in unless there's constant training, which there is not

in Russia, you are still talking about a few months at the minimum to build up. So what do we really mean here, Roger? The muddy season starts very soon in November. You cannot move on the battlefield either way. Then the ground freezes good for tanks, but not for much more. What this mobilization means, seal next spring. That's really what it means because it's going to take that long to get these forces up ready and integrated as an effective fighting force.

And oh, by the way, until next spring comes, if you think, and here's the second one. So Russians have always thought differently. Russian generals, strategists have always thought differently about nuclear weapons than we in NATO. There's not the same taboo against their use. They're integrated into their military thinking. And the words that Medvedev used last week, there was always the doctrine that if the Russian homeland is at risk, and is at risk of defeat. So it has to be a risk of defeat, then the use of strategic weapons becomes conceivable.

They have framed these referendums to turn this territory now into the Russian homeland, which just creates wholly new dilemmas for everybody. Now, I had the opportunity to talk to some senior U.S. officials this week, and I just asked the question this way, are you worried about the threat of escalation? And these are responsible people with responsible jobs. And it was almost just that they opened up their eyes wide and said, how could you even ask me that? Right. Of course, we're worried. Now, does that mean they're going to slow down in the supply to Ukraine? No. but they realize that the stakes have just gone way up. And so the United States is trapped here. It can't back down, but it understands the risk of moving forward. And let's talk about one more party in this, Zelensky, who just gave the most defiant speech, you can imagine, said, call the Russian bluff. Call the Russian bluff and tell them explicitly what would happen if he ever used to New York.

a weapon, which of course the United States will not do under any circumstances. And he's right about this third point. There is a window right now until those Russian forces get in the field. Give me everything. It's September. There are six weeks, eight weeks of ground maneuvers possible. Give me everything to get out ahead of that mobilization. So he's pushing hard in return in response to the Russian.

escalation and Biden in his private briefings and his private discussions is saying our highest priority avoid World War III. You've been listening to a sample of the regular Friday focus podcast of the Monk Debates. To access the full-length editions of each episode, simply go to our website triple w the monkdebates.com and click on the donate button at the top right of your screen. as $25 a year or 50 cents an episode, you can access the full-length editions of each and every Friday Focus episode, along with being part of special member-only content that we're developing for this podcast throughout the calendar year. We hope you'll join us as a listener of the full-length editions of Friday Focus and be part of our community dedicated to more

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