The Munk Debates Podcast - Friday Focus Emergency Episode: Trump's military operation in Venezuela replaces the dictator but not the dictatorship

Episode Date: January 4, 2026

The full length edition of this special Friday Focus episode is being made available to all paying and non-paying subscribers. In this special emergency episode Rudyard and Janice unpack the stunning US invasion of Venezuela and abduction and arrest of its President Nicolas Maduro. Trump's statement that the US would "run" Venezuela for some indeterminate period of time gave little to no indication of a planned transition or a commitment to a democratic outcome. Was Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, the country's new leader, part of a deal with the US prior to Maduro's extraction? If so, the US now has a client regime in Venezuela signalling that the world is indeed returning to a system of spheres of influence. Does Putin now own Eastern Europe? Can Xi Jinping do what he wants in Taiwan? This one abduction could be the green light Russia and China have been waiting for and thus has huge global implications. Meanwhile every leader in the western hemisphere who opposes Trump is now worried about the possibility of being taken in the middle of the night. Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to this special edition of our regular podcast. We're doing something today for both the hub community, the online news magazine, the hub.ca, and for the monk debates, particularly the listenership of the Friday Focus podcast. We're a pleasure to be in service of both communities by having Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs and a regular commentator for both organizations to appear on a business business. Sunday morning for her to talk about the exceptional news of the last 36 hours, particularly Janice. I'll let you make sure that I've got the right wording here, but the U.S., I don't know,

invasion of Venezuela, the arrest and abduction of Nicholas Maduro. Janice, you've looked at a lot of international events with me over the last number of years. This This is something. I think we both agree. It deserved a special episode of its own. Heavy machinery is moving on the world stage as we speak. This is a signal moment, as you just said, and off the top, let's just say, this is so puzzling.

It is hard to unpack what the purposes are, what the plan is. What we saw yesterday was a very precise extraction, as the United States describes it, of the President of Maduro. He grabbed and snatch, taken back, currently in jail in New York. And, you know, many military analysts in the United States are celebrating the capacity to execute flawlessly on this. But the much bigger and more important questions, what's the game plan here? What is this signal to others in the world who are watching this? And boy, for me, Redyard, it is tough to put together a coherent story. Yeah.

So so many different ways to look at this. But let's just begin with, I guess, what came out of the president. press conference yesterday. And I think the words that that really recalibrated this as more than just a snatch and grab, more than just the exercising of a warrant, a duly issued warrant by a grand jury in the United States for the arrest of Nicholas Maduro. And that was the president's statement that the United States would run Venezuela for some indeterminate period of time with little or no indication as to a transition. And if there was a

transition, Janice, to a democratically elected government of Venezuela stood up by the United States and international partners. Roger, nobody on the president's team. It was the president. It was his secretary of war. It was his secretary of state. Use the word democracy once in an hour long press conference. So whatever the plan is in the White House, it's not for a democratic transition.

It's not even clear, frankly, but there's a transition coming at all. The president, after making that startling statement, the United States will run the country. Boy, did I pay attention when I heard those words? That fits really comfortably in 19th century imperial talk. How he's going to run the country? That's no plan on that. But frankly, he then went on to say that Marquiso Rubio, Secretary of State,

had had a 45-minute discussion with the vice president of Venezuela, who had then sworn in as the interim president, D'Aa Rodriguez, and she was with the program, Roger. She got it. She understood that she would comply with what the United States wanted her to do. And so if you believe that a deal was made prior to this extraction, that she was part of that deal, that she knew about it in advance, then the job's over because the United States has a client regime,

the remnants of the major regime in Venezuela. You don't have to do much more. And Riggio said this morning, Sunday morning, as we're recording the show, but he did not foresee any further military action in Venezuela for the moment. Yeah, so I want to zero in on this because I think, you know, if our listeners have taken anything away from this tumultuous weekend, it seems to be the dawning realization that the intention of the Trump administration is, as you say, to set up Venezuela the current regime, which is a brutal one. It has been engaged in the wholesale torture and repression of its citizens and various attempts to, most recently, through stealing of elections. It seems, Janice, that the goal here, again, this could all change, but right now, the goal seems to beat a sidestep. the duly elected, and we think that the last election clearly indicated that there was a fair and

duly elected alternative to Maduro and to the regime that is now in power and seemingly will remain in power, that alternative is most powerfully represented by Machado. A woman who has recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her exceptional campaign for democracy in Venezuela. Donald Trump seemed to really play down any involvement for Machado in the future. So talk to us a little bit more just about how this would represent, I guess, I don't know, a model of, let's call it maybe what it is, gunboat diplomacy that is that is closer let's say to the Putin style approach to uh Russia's near abroad and particularly the last decade and a half of Russian involvement in Ukraine. I think that's a great description. This is Putin's style gunboat diplomacy. You know, Putin doesn't

have to use naval forces. He just uses land forces. The U.S. used, uh, the U.S. used, uh, naval forces and helicopters on Saturday night. But, you know, the person was explicit. He was asked about Machado. And let me just backtrack for one minute to underline a point you made, rather. There was an election in Venezuela. There was meticulous documentation because the opposition knew that they were likely to be met by overwhelming, you know, power by Majuro.

And so they documented and there were ballot scrutiners. The opposition won with 60% of the vote. That is not a airline victory. And so Gonzalez, who ran because Machado was not permitted to run, is it was won that election and material justice qualified. So talk about a steal of an election. Boy, this one is a classic. Donald Trump was asked during that press conference.

And he was pretty tired during that press conference. It was an hour long. He'd been up all night watching, you know, when I see these events unfolded, but he said right out when he was asked about Machado, well, she's a very nice lady, but she doesn't have the power and the support inside Venezuela. Cancel out the election, cancel out the Nobel Peace Prize, all gone.

he's going with the folks that are in power. Now, the other thing he talked about incessantly, and we need to connect these dots, oil. He said, you know, we're going to run the country and next sentence, side of his mouth, and our big U.S. oil companies, the biggest in the world, are going into Venezuela. They're going to repair the infrastructure,

and we're going to get back all the money that was stolen from us. Okay. time for a factor to here reddard Venezuela exports less oil now than it ever has even two or three years ago it was exporting three billion dollars a day

three billion barrels a day it's down to million yeah it's down to one it has degraded infrastructure and it exports and Canadians I think can understand this, it exports very heavy crude oil, very much like something oil that comes from Canada.

The best estimates are that it will take billions of dollars. It will take five years to rebuild the infrastructure. Iraq is an interesting example. How many years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq did it take to bring Iraqi oil exports back to where they were before. They're still not quite there. So we're talking 20 years. So I don't know, frankly, what he's thinking about. There was no short-term win on oil for the U.S. economy. He said we need energy.

But I think there, I mean, there's a huge gap here. This press conference was dominated by the theme. We're doing this for oil. Naked, open, no ambiguity. This is an imperial move to control the oil assets in Venezuela. But that's a very long-term play. And, by the way, how many U.S. oil majors are going in, rather given the else? Yeah, that's right. Too many uncertainty. So that's what I said, so tough to put together a coherent story here.

Yeah. And the reason I mentioned, you know, potential parallels to Putin is that, you know, before the madame and the big kind of protests that overthrew what in a sense was a Putin puppet, that's exactly how Russia kind of ruled Ukraine. It had a series of favored oligarchs who had the backing. in the support of the Kremlin. Because I think many people are drawing analogies to what happened in Panama with Noriega, and that Noriega was overthrown and similarly brought back to the U.S. to be arraigned and, you know, sentenced and ultimately imprisoned in the United States. And I just think it's important to, if indeed the trajectory here is not one of what happened in Panama, which was the return of Panama's sovereignty to the Panamanian people,

democratic elections in Panama, the control the Panama Canal, you know, exercise by Panamanians. This genus somehow seems different. It seems as if this is a, the type of calculation and the modus operas, barrendi, maybe more importantly, that you would expect or see from a ruler like Xi Jinping or again, you know, the biggest object lesson that we're all facing right now is Putin's illegal war in the Ukraine. So is the big test to look for in the coming days and

weeks, what is the pathway for Venezuela? And if Democratic elections are not part of what the Trump administration thinks should be in the country's future, then hypothesize for us, what does that say about where international relations are at globally? If the world's superpower and, you know, multi-decade advocate for for you know albeit imperfectly but nonetheless advocate for more not less human freedom is now following something that looks much more like a chinese or russian model well i'm watching exactly as you suggested rogerd what happens over the next few weeks you know does trump um say uh well we think mitchado should come back to Venezuela.

And is there, you stay as interim president, but we should have an election in 18 months. Exactly. But Machado should be allowed to come back in campaign. That's one future in which there would conceivably be a transition. And the word democracy would show up and the rights of a country to determine its own future. The other one is that it's just what we see today is what we're going to get.

We are going to get a regime in which the leading members are so scared, frankly, Richard, that they could be extracted in exactly the same way, that regardless of what Regette says, effectively, she tries. You know, Tim Snyder, as you said, to me, uses the term anticipatory compliance. you comply in advance because you're so frightened. Now, she would still have to get the military and all the collectivos, because there is a large, large military in Venezuela, and she would have her work cut up for her.

But effectively, we would get a puppet government. Now, what does this say? Well, we are now fully back, and that national security strategy that you and I talked about on this program, And we spent quite a bit of time, unlike many people who said, oh, that's just a piece of paper. But it told us a lot. Trump wants to go back to spheres of influence. This is mine.

This is my backyard. And he said on two social or one of the other channels, he said early, early this morning, we did this. And we should do it again to any country that we like. It can't be more naked and more open than that. Latin America, and by the way, North America, Mexico and Canada, because he said, you know, Mexico better watch itself. President of Columbia better watch his ass, as he put it. This is Western Hemisphere.

He owns it. He decides. and he doesn't worry about any international law. He doesn't worry about consulting Congress. He just does it. He's the executive power. It's his. Well, if that's the case, then I guess Vladimir Putin owns Europe

and certainly Eastern Europe. And he does what he wants in Eastern Europe. And Xi Jinping certainly can do what he wants in Taiwan. So this has huge, this one story has huge global implications. And if the administration continues on the present path, this is the green light for Russia and for China. Yeah, and I think that's, you know, it's important for people just to think of the analogs, right? Which is, what if China says, wow, you know, Taiwan's getting billions of dollars of, you know, powerful missiles from the United States. They're getting the attackums, the same missiles that were sent to Ukraine.

This is a threat to China. It's all propaganda, but they'll say China's going to be attacked by Taiwan. We need to intervene. We need to defend ourselves. And they blockade Taiwan or they abduct the precedent of Taiwan. What do we say? And I guess what I mean we, Janice, I mean Canada. If we're being careful, and it seemed like Mark Carney's statement yesterday was careful, and I think people understand that, we're entering into trade negotiations with the United States.

So a lot is at stake right now in the candid U.S. relationship. But if we're not going to say the quiet part out loud, which is that, you know, there's all kinds of reasons not to like Maduro and lots of Venezuelans outside of Venezuela clearly were thrilled at his overthrow. But the fact is that this by most standards of international law would would wasn't was illegal it it it yeah it it it contravenes UN in particular covenants and and treaties and understanding so what happens when the shoe is on the other foot what happens when I don't know Putin goes into Moldova or you know some other country what do we say Janice If we're quiet as we are being quiet, not just us, but you're up to, in this moment. Do we have anything to say to what Xi or Putin could or will do in the future? This is, I think, again, where, you know, Timothy Snyder's argument about anticipatory compliance,

you comply in advance because you're afraid. But by complying in events, you actually bring about what your most. afraid of. That's really what the argument is. You know, who's the we here, Raddeard? The Europeans, Canada. We were careful. The Europeans were extremely careful. The same kind of thing. Why were the Europeans so careful? Because they're in the thick right now of negotiations with Donald Trump about Ukraine. And so they're very careful. But the we are shrinking all the time. That's really the point. Who's the member of the we that we would have? expect to hear from, we would normally expect to hear from Europe. We might hear from Japan and South

Korea and Canada. That's about it. And we, none of us actually spoke out very loudly. The one country that spoke out was the president of Mexico, President Scheinbaum, who was unequivocal in her condemnation and in the pushback. And I think, first of all, I think she's just a courageous woman. But beyond that, I think she knows that Mexico is in the crosshairs. Yeah. And that calling it out now is probably better than waiting for these guys to show up in the dark of night, which is what every government that opposes Donald Trump is now worried about in the Western

hemisphere. The present Columbia is worried. The president of Mexico is where Cuba. It's Cuba. There isn't a government in this, in our own hemisphere here, in our own backyard that isn't worried about this right now. We are in a back in that we are back a hundred years. We really are. More.

Yeah. And I guess to try to think this through for Canadian, you know, decision makers, you know, a lot of them, you're in touch with them. I mean, I guess, again, there's the whole Kuzma renegotiation, the free trade negotiation that's overshadowing everything in the relationship for this year through to the midterms. Maybe there's some hopium around the midterms that Trump might experience a setback. I guess, Janice, what should be, you know, our approach at this moment? Do we, Is it simply a question of keeping our heads down? Is there pressure subtle or otherwise that could be brought to bear on the Trump administration to try to create, if not, it's hard retroactively to create validity or legality in terms of what happened?

But if the ultimate consequence was the restoration of democracy to Venezuela and setting Venezuela, let's say on a path similar to that, that Panama experienced, which is a very positive one after Noriega, well then at least, I don't know, at least there's the guise, the veneer that this is being done in service of some ideals that are generally the ones that we support, which is the expansion of democracy and freedom and human rights. I just think there would be something especially grim if, as you said to me earlier over the weekend when we were talking, that in effect, they're taking the leader of authoritarian regime out of the equation, but they're allowing a regime that, again, has been the subject of international condemnation. I believe rulings in the International Court of Justice about, you know, brutal abuses of human rights, torture, illegal executions.

if that regime remains in place for the purposes of, you know, the extraction of oil by U.S. oil companies, you're right. I mean, we're not back to the 20th century. We're maybe back to the 19th century if that is the type of calculus that is just left to hang there. And in a sense, the unsaid part is said just simply by this statement that, no, there will be no transition to democracy. Yes, we will be working with this authoritarian regime to extract resources for the benefit of our companies and our economy. You know, you're absolutely right. You're right. You're watching what we're seeing now.

You take the dictator out, but you leave the dictatorship. That's where we are as of today. So, you know, where's the glimmer of hope here that this could evolve to something better? Machado herself and her organization. are now busy contacting presidents, all, and leaders all across Latin America. Macron has thrown his wait behind her return to Venezuela. You know, I think there is something that the we can do here, which, because, you know, when, first of,

you know, Donald Trump is likely to find that less offensive, frankly, because he doesn't have a long span of attention here. He got high from the extraction that he saw last night. And so a push to bring her back, to bring Machado back to Venezuela. It's not something that I think would infuriate him where he lashes out governments who support that, but at least would open the door.

to what you and I have been talking about, which is a phase transition. You know, let me make one charitable comment record. You know, when the United States invaded Iraq and went in and overthrew Saddam Hussein, one of the biggest mistakes that was made was what was called debathification. They dismissed all the officials in the government,

fired all the members of the Iraqi army, because they were painted. And that's probably what led to the, you know, the decade-long fierce guerrilla war that was fought. People need their jobs and their salaries. And if you remove, you remove the thin layer at the top, but you don't do what the United States did in Iraq. So I think there is scope here for Europe, for Canada,

for Latin America to come together. I'd say all we're asking for is that she'd be allowed to go back and that her security be guaranteed. Jen, should Canada as a matter of principle be stating its strong preference that democratic elections be held in Venezuela within 12 to 18 months? Yeah, I think that that's consistent with everything we've said before. You know, going back a decade, Canada chaired a conference on Venezuela. It took for leadership on a conference on Venezuela.

And it was about a democratic transition. Now, again, everything has been tried, okay, to get rid of Maduro, everything. Every kind of coalition of the willing to push for democracy, sanctions, literally, Everything has been tried. And even an offer, Donald Trump did give him an offer to go to Istanbul and live like a sultan with all his money as recently as just before Christmas. And Maduro turned it down. So the only way to get him out was what happened, frankly. So it's not that so much that I think tells the future.

It's much more. are we committed to a democratic transition? Every one of the countries that you and I are speaking about has at one time expressed their strong commitment to a democratic transition in Venezuela. It's not tomorrow, but at the very least, you let Machado and Gonzalez go back and you say to this regime,

if you kill these people or disappear them, we're back. Yeah. So just finally, do you, what does one know about how the Trump administration thinks about things? But surely, I mean, Marco Rubio is a pretty smooth operator for kind of sophisticated guy. He must realize that there would be a big reputational cost for, as you say, replacing the dictator, but not the dictatorship. Furthermore, you'd think that there'd be some political pressure in an important swing state like Florida. To see precisely that type of outcome amongst Venezuelans, but also possibly Cuban Americans who would celebrate the idea that just as maybe in Venezuela, in a future Cuba, you could replace what is similarly an authoritarian government with democratic leadership. So I guess I'm ending this weekend a little bit confused about why the administrative. seems, as you said in that press conference, not to mention the word democracy once, to have this seeming preference to work with the Maduro regime for what, as you rightly pointed

out, are economic gains and benefits, you know, that are five or ten years off in the future. What are we to make of that, Janus? Is it some, again, expression of doctrine, of a, of a. of a theory that we need to to take seriously and to try to understand that this isn't about democracy, this is about something else. Maybe it's about the projection of power in a pretty, pretty brutal and straightforward way. Look, Roger, I don't think that people at press conference yesterday care much about democracy. I just don't. I don't think Pete Higgs has been. I don't think Donald Trump does.

Rubio is a more skilled actor, but Rubio is the one person in this whole consolation that actually has an agenda here that really cares about Venezuela. He doesn't care so much about Venezuela. He cares about Cuba. One of the things I haven't talked about, if we haven't just one minute more,

is who's active with the Maduro regime in Venezuela. Cuba has a significant presence. significant president. Oh, by the way, there was a senior delegate from China who found themselves trapped on the night of that extraction. Russia has a large presence and intimately connected to this regime, as do the Iranians, who surprisingly have used Caracas as a place where money gets exchanged, Hezbollah has a presence in Caracas. Lots of lovely people.

Lots of lovely people on the ground in Caracas. Now, if you're Marco Rubio, you don't want a continuation of this. You don't want Caracas to continue to be a site for these visitors, especially in your own backyard. So I think for Rubio, it's not so much democracy.

but it's a change in the strategic orientation of the regime. I foresee there's going to be some very tough conversations. And this is not going to go as smoothly for Rubio as he expected. It would go his president abhorres regime change, doesn't want soldiers on the ground. He said he'd be okay with it, but really doesn't want it. Rudyard, we know that. I think this is going to get much, much more difficult for them

than they think it, you know, this weekend. And so we'll have to wait and see. It will be a terrible message. It will be a terrible message to the autocrats of the world if this stays where it is right now, Richard, with awful consequences down the road, frankly. Yeah. Yeah, a consequential weekend.

We're only three days into 2026. And here I was hoping for the world to take its foot off the gas pedal after last year's neck brace that I had to put on by December to deal with the acceleratory accelerating effects of a world in rapid change. Janice Gros-Stein, founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs. Thanks so much for giving us some of your Sunday to. to have this conversation about a consequential event. Always a pleasure to be with you, Richard. It really is. We'll talk to you again soon. Bye-bye. The Monk debates are a project of the Aurea and Peter and Melanie Monk Charitable Foundations.

Rudyard Griffiths and Ricky Gerwitz are the producers. Be sure to download and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like us, feel free to give us a five-star rating. Thank you again for listening.