The Munk Debates Podcast - Friday Focus: Gaza ceasefire - Trump prepares to take office

Episode Date: January 17, 2025

Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. The following is a sample of the Munk Debates' weekly current affairs podcast, Friday Focus. Rudyard and Janice start the show with the big international news of the week: A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that will suspend fighting and see the release of 33 Israeli hostages. Why now? and can it last? Rudyard and Janice then turn to the devastating LA fires and the astronomical cost of rebuilding without adequate insurance coverage. In Washington, Pete Hegseth breezed through US senate hearings to run the US Department of Defense. How does a man with no experience and a checkered past assume one of the most important and senior roles in government? Rudyard and Janice wrap up the show by anticipating what is to come on Monday when Trump takes office. Will his executive orders include a significant hike on tariffs for Canadian goods being exported into the US? To access full-length editions of the Friday Focus podcast consider becoming a donor to the Munk Debates for as little as $25 annually, or $.50 per episode. Canadian donors receive a charitable tax receipt. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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full-length edition of this program. Thanks in advance for your generous contribution. Welcome to Friday Focus for the week of the 13th of January 2025. I'm Richard Griffiths, the chair of the Monk Debates. I'm joined by Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs. Janice, I'm looking at my window here over beautiful Grange Park in downtown Toronto. I've got a lot of snow falling. It is a winter wonderland.

You wouldn't know it by the heat inside the country, Richard, and by the heat in other parts of the world. Absolutely. Before we dig into today's show, we want to start a new tradition here at the Friday Focus Podcast, which is to recognize some of the great donors that have come on board to support the monk debates and our efforts to fight polarization, to provide places and spaces for people to debate the big issues and ideas of our moment with civility and substance. So thank you, Mandeepe S, William D., Judith H., Patrick H., Thomas, L, Mark W, and Rebecca T, all joining as supporters, accessing terrific set of benefits for a $100 a year donation.

Thank you all. And we have two curators who've come on in the last week. Alex A and Andy G. Thank you for your generous support. As curators, you get access to the same seats at each monk debate. Our in-person debates here at Roy Thompson Hall. charitable tax receipt, available to all of our donors. So again, we just thank everybody for their generous support this week.

Janice, I want to begin today's show by talking about events in the Middle East after many, many months too long. We are finally, let's hope, in the last stages of a negotiated hostage deal for the release of the remaining hostages. we think 30. We'll have to see what happens. Explain to us what you think brought about this milestone. Why are we finally at this point? No, about your power matters. And a lot of people are saying this deal was on the table last May. What's new? What's changed?

Well, a lot. What changed was military defeat of Hezbollah, really badly. weekend and what's the evidence for that one? A president and a prime minister in Lebanon appointed that they opposed in Kinseboa before this. Bashir al-Assad gone. Iran's most important ally in the region and Iran unable to defend itself for the short-term future from any airstrike. That is a profound change in the balance of power in the region. And Hamas is isolated, which was not true before all this happened. And then the other epicenter of power in Washington, somebody else is coming to town on Monday.

And I've never seen this whether it would be interesting to hear what you have to say. But the Trump team and the Biden team really worked together on this one. But it was Trump putting his finger on the scale. again and again and saying there'll be held to pay unless there is a deal. And by the way, he wasn't speaking only to Hamas. He was speaking to Netanyahu. That's what pushed this over the line. And what do you think of the implications of the deal?

What does this do for the conflict? Does this create the preconditions for reconstruction to begin? Is there a soon-to-be-announced coalition of Gulf states and others who will help with security issues? Or are we still in a bit of a wait-and-see period in terms of what, in fact, Israel's security and reconstruction policy will be with regards to Gaza? Look, there's no question we're still in a wait and sea period. In fact, the ratification of this deal is now delayed by the U.S. Israeli cabinet until tomorrow night, Saturday nights in Jerusalem. I am not concerned, registered, frankly, and the deal may go into effect Monday rather than Sunday. I'm not concerned

because those fundamentals that I spoke about, they are still in place. And Netanyahu is not going to defy Trump. Trump wants this deal. So what does that tell us about the future? I think big picture here, there is one important headline to all of this. Trump does not want to see the fighting start again. And I think we will get through the six weeks. That's the easy piece. After that, your question is relevant. That's midway through these six weeks.

The conversation starts about what the final withdrawal of Israel from Gaza will look like. and the exchange of prisoners for those last remaining male hostages, and the political price will be very hard for those. Those will be really tough negotiations. I think Donald Trump will put a thumb on the scale again, and he may have to do it more than once. I think we'll get through that. The really tough one is the third phase.

What does Reconstruction look like? Who governs Gaza? That's the topic. for the third phase. Here the Trump administration is in a very interesting place. No, a mass role in governance in Gaza. Blinken said a reconstituted and reformed Palestinian authority. Well, frankly, Palestinians have been waiting for that one a long time, too.

All kinds of leaks about the Saudis and the Emirates being ready to finance, not the staff, but to finance peacekeeping forces. That, I think, is where there are way more questions than answers. But that's probably three months off, at least. And if we think forward through those months, what is your bet in terms of how this plays out? It seems as Netanyahu, his government is racked even just by this hostage deal. It's not entirely clear whether Smotritch and Ben-Gavir, the minister's representing the kind of far-right parties will remain in the government. They're threatening to withdraw as of the time of recording this program.

I mean, what is Netanyahu's range of motion and are elections in Israel really key to the next step of unlocking anything that goes? beyond this seemingly current stalemate. Yeah. You know, Benvir is, as you rightly said, Roger, threatening to resign from the government. You know, it's really interesting. I think it's worth doing what Nathaniel was doing, which is calling his bluff,

because the financial rewards that these two parties have gotten from being in the government, you know, huge budget subsidies for their constituencies. once they leave redire, there is no way back to that. And what's changed is that Netanyahu could continue to do that before Trump decided to use the muscle that he has. And there's no question, that's what happened. He used muscle against Netanyahu.

That's not going to change. So I think if both parties were to withdraw from the government, what other parties, including Betty Gans's party, has said is we will support the minority coalition as long as it takes in order to get through these ceasefires and both hostages back. So it's a lifeline three, four, five months. But after that, I think there would be elections. But those would be six months after that. we are probably talking about this government being in office for at least a year, at the very minimum.

And the Gulf states, to what extent in a Trump presidency are they going to be either willing or kind of coerced players in what happens next? I guess I'm wondering, to what extent does Trump in this U.S. administration, in fact, care that much about Gaza? Do you think that their concern about this conflict extends beyond the return of the hostages? Trump is out this week, you know, talking about a renewed push on the Abraham Accords. This was the, you know, the big repressional between Israel and Dubai with an idea that Saudi Arabia similarly could come on to some kind of diplomatic trade and security normalization with. Israel, can you have those things happen and have issues like the governance of Gaza, the security of Gaza, the reconstruction of Gaza, unresolved?

No, I don't think you can. And I think that's the period, you know, that will start three, four months from now. I think one big thing has changed, Frederick, as a result of this war, is that the Saudi interest is less than it was before. and I take mom in someone seriously he said it over and over there is no deal without and he's chosen his words very carefully

without a political pathway forward for the Palestinian people he's not said independent state he said political pathway forward that's code frankly for Palestinian governance of Gaza what that would look like

there's no agreement yet. I think Trump very much wants to move this forward. This has been something that he's been focused on. When he, you know, it began, he considers this one of his most important accomplishments. He would want to renew and deepen it. But I wouldn't say it's an urgent priority for him, and it's clearly less of a priority for Saudi Arabia than it was when Donald Trump left office. Blinkett said, you know, in his farewell speech,

this is all tied up and ready to go. All we need is a political pathway forward for the Palestinians. That is certainly what officials are saying. I'm not wholly convinced. Well, let's say goodbye to our complimentary listeners. We're going to join our monk donors on the other side of this short break and do a bit of a, I don't know what I was going to say, around Robin, but it's more like an emergency reaction force or rapid, rapid reaction force.

We're going to talk quickly about LA fires, about the Trump inauguration, tariffs on the 20th, and all the other big news that happened this week, another wild week in the news. We'll try to unpack a selection of topics for you right after this break. Thanks for listening to this excerpt of the Friday Focus podcast to get full-length editions of each and every episode of this program. Simply go to our website, www.w. the monk debates.com.

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