The Munk Debates Podcast - Friday Focus: Israel pushes forward in Lebanon and Putin changes Russia's nuclear doctrine

Episode Date: September 27, 2024

Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. The following is a sample of the Munk Debates’ weekly current affairs podcast, Friday Focus. Today's Friday Focus begins with Benjamin Netayahu''s decision to push forward in Israel's war with Hezbollah. Why is he antagonizing Washington by changing his mind on their proposal for a ceasefire? Janice asks the same question she did when the war in Gaza first started: what is the endgame in Lebanon? What is the strategy? Rudyard wants to know why the Biden administration is urgeing Israel to de-escalate their wars but paradoxically is providing weapons to Ukraine to escalate their battle with Russia. Why is Israel not getting the same support and consideration being afforded to Ukraine? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice discuss the ongoing deliberations by western countries about whether to provide long range missiles to Ukraine to strike inside Russia, which has prompted Putin to rephrase Russia's nuclear doctrine and lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. The hosts worry that we are sleeping on an issue which has the potential to blow up in the most destructive way possible.  To access full-length editions of the Friday Focus podcast consider becoming a donor to the Munk Debates for as little as $25 annually, or $.50 per episode. Canadian donors receive a charitable tax receipt. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The following is a complimentary excerpt of this week's edition of the Friday Focus podcast by The Monk Debates to access full-length editions of each and every episode, along with all kinds of great additional benefits and perks, become a donor to the Monk Debates. You can do that for as little as $25 a year, and you'll receive each and every year 50 Friday focus episodes at full length. It's all available right now on our website in just a few simple clicks, triple W the monk debates.com. Look for the Friday focus option in our navigation bar, the top right of the website. Make your donation and we will send you each and every Friday a link to listen to the full-length edition of this program. Thanks in advance for your generous contribution.

Welcome to the Friday Focus podcast for the 27th of September. I'm Reddard Griffith as the executive director of the Monk Debates. I'm joined by Janice Gross. Stein. the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs. Janice, another action-packed week for us to unpack together. So many places to start, but I want to begin the show where we end the week, which is a bizarre kind of reversal, double, triple-axis, black flip, I don't know what you would call it, by Benjamin B.B. Netanyahu, who has arrived at the United Nations, world leaders meeting there this week, trying to cobble together a 21-day ceasefire between Israel

and Hezbollah. News reports, if they are accurate, suggests that Netanyahu agreed in principle to the ceasefire earlier in the week, briefing some of his cabinet ministers, but not all. But on a plane to the UN on Thursday, suddenly seems to have been. done and about face, indicating that the prosecution of the war against Hezbollah would continue as discussions regarding the French U.S. proposal continue. What are we to make of all this, Janus? Are we any closer here to an actual ceasefire? Or is this now faint hope as we head into the weekend? More rocket attacks from Hezbollah today? into Israel, more Israeli bombing in Lebanon.

It is a rough road ahead, Richard. I am not without hope, but it is rough. There are two baskets of pressures on Netanyahu going on right now. Most interesting, the leader of the center left, if there is such a thing, opposition, Lapid, Yair Lapid, came out swinging against a ceasefire, which tells you the mood in the country. He said, look, the communication systems of his Bala have been disrupted, which they have. If you look at the return fire that's coming, they are disorganized now. If we have a ceasefire for 21 days, we will be.

right back at it and there will be no stabilization along the border. So he sat, and this is the most reasonable within Israeli society right now, seven days, no more. Also, of course, the usual, the extreme right-wing partners of Netanyahu came out and said they would leave the government. Now, that's a fairly whole threat by this time because there's so many other ways for him to stand up a national unity government. So it is more revealing that the center is opposed to the ceasefire. There are 100,000 displaced people inside Israel. Hezbollah has been firing across the border now for almost a year.

There has to be some expectation beyond a ceasefire that the border can be stabilized. I guess what I'm trying to understand is, is Netanyahu himself. I mean, there seems to be a pattern here, Janice, of a leader who likes to be liked, and he especially likes to be liked by the powerful, it seems. So he has these strange moments. This last week seems like a replay in some ways of Rafa

and the debates around Rafa with the United States, where initially the Netanyahu, and his government says, we're going into Rafa, we're taking out the last of the brigades of Hamas. the Americans say, whoa, wait a second, no, we're not, we're not keen on this. You're going to hold back. He then engages in this long, kind of ultimately, probably insincere, kind of stalling discussion with the Americans and eventually goes into Rafa, regardless of what, you know, the American point of view was. So how he could have earlier in the week, seems to have gone to great lengths with these discussions with the president, Biden, with the French, agreeing to draft text of what he would say on the announcement of the 21-day agreement,

and then to flip-flop on his plane to the UN General Assembly in New York on Thursday, as you or I or anyone not in Israel, not an expert in Israeli domestic politics, certainly in my case, could have understood, based on Yer Yer Yer Yer Yer-Lapid's comments, this is the kind of center-left, largest and most largest block in the Kinesad and probably the biggest kind of legitimate challenger to Netanyahu right now. Earlier in the week, he was panning the idea of any kind of extended ceasefire. So why does Netanyahu do this? And it just seems so needlessly damaging to Israel's relationship with the United States.

This is a pathological way of making decisions. Frankly, you're so right, Rudyard, that just antagonizes the president, antagonizes his whole national security team around the president. Nor is this the first time he's done it, frankly. He's given his word to Blinken, who made multiple visits. And literally, as soon as Blinken was on his plane, Netanyahu was pulling back. So we could go to, on a psychological path here and talk about his internal conflicts and his cautious style of decision-making. But the bigger picture is here that he's not willing to take the exit strategy from this coalition. There is an exit strategy for him. The other leaders have said they will form a national unity government. He can remain as prime minister. He will not face criminal charges. There's distrust between these leaders.

and then you know over and over again. And it gets in the way and produces the erratic decision making, which is so damaging. It's hard to overestimate the damage of this kind of behavior. Bigger picture here, Roger, just one you and I've talked about in Gaza. Same question here. What's the end game? What's the strategy? Yes.

It's important that the, um, that the elite fighters, the elite his beloved fighters, the Redwan pulled back from the border. But you're only going to get to that, frankly, through a diplomatic process. There is no military way to achieve that objective unless Israel occupies that border territory.

We've seen that movie before, it's late for 18 years. And we know how it ended. That's, I think, a crucial point here. This makes no strategic sense. His best bet is in agreement that Macron and Biden together. Macron has good ties, not specifically into Hispola, but into Lebanon. This is his best shot at it, frankly.

So take the chance. It is worthwhile saying that ultimately whether His Bella ceases fire or not does not depend on Macron. It depends largely on Iran. Final question I'm trying to understand before we say goodbye to our free members and join our paid donors on the other side of a short break is the, yeah, I guess the seeming contradiction, at least from my perspective, of the Biden administration's policy towards the Ukraine war in Russia, which we'll talk about in the second half of the show, and what's going on right now with Israel in the Middle East. and most recently with Hezbollah. So just bear with me for a moment because you have two countries that are invaded. That's a fact. We both, everyone agrees.

Ukraine is invaded in 2020. We have obviously Israel invaded from the south almost a year ago coming up on that important anniversary. And the day after the Hamas invasion rocket attacks begin from Hezbollah. The United States, to its credit, provides arms to both countries, Israel and Ukraine. A lot more to Ukraine, a lot of different types of weapons, less to Israel, but nonetheless important weapons. But then there's a divergence, Janice, that confounds me, which is, on one hand, the United States urges with Israel throughout its engagement with Hamas and now with Hezbollah

de-escalation. It becomes the mantra of the Biden administration with regards to Israel and conflict in the Middle East. With regards to Russia, there's some caution early on, but increasingly as the war goes on with Ukraine, the United States deploys greater and greater, more powerful and potent weapons to Ukraine at larger and larger scales up into most recently now discussions that are happening probably

today in the White House between Zelensky and Biden about the release of long-range U.S. missiles to attack targets inside Russia. So I guess what I'm trying to figure out, Janice, is how to square this circle. On one hand, an inherent cautiousness about

the Middle East, a reluctance to, I think, extend at least to Israel the same considerations and full-throated support and defense that is being extended to Ukraine. And in this case, the Americans this week announcing that they're not providing Israel with any targeting information to attack Hezbollah. They are doing exactly that, though, for Ukraine, for targets inside Russia. And I guess my final kind of query on this and why I struggle with this is, to me, Russia seems like a much more dangerous peer-competence.

competitor to the United States, nuclear armed, increasingly bellicose language from Putin around his nuclear arsenal. In other words, the risk, maybe the shorter term risk vis-a-vis a conflict of Russia seem much greater than the shorter-term risks of a conflict with Iran, which in the same way as Russia is the great power lurking behind the war in Ukraine. Iran, is the great power in the region lurking behind Israel's conflict with Hezbollah. So how, Janus, on one hand, do we have one set of facts and one set of responses for one conflict and a completely different set of facts and different set of responses for another conflict?

It seems inherently conflicted and incoherent, to put it politely. Well, you have painted a completely accurate picture there, right? So the big question is why. Maybe the easiest way to think about this. Let's look at the UN this week. Muhammad Abbas, overwhelming, standing ovation after his speech in the General Assembly. Security Council and non-security council members, the G7, beyond the Security Council, pressing overwhelmingly for ceasefire.

I think there's no question that international opinion, for very complex reasons, which we might want to talk about in another show, far friendlier to Ukraine. In large parts of the global South, not so, but nevertheless, virtually all of Europe, Japan, South Korea, far friendlier to Ukraine than it is to Israel. Israel's never been more isolated, frankly, than it is right now. There are complicated reasons for that that go beyond the way Israel has fought this war, frankly. And that's, I think, a big part. And let's not forget, there is an election going on in the United States, in which, again, in the United States, younger voters who are being eagerly wooed by both parties at this moment

are inclined to be much tougher on Israel than they are on Ukraine. So politics, is that one word answer to your question, politics? Yeah, I mean, I'll just say it. I think there's been a long history, especially in Europe, but also in the world of people not really liking Zionism. And this was well before the establishment of the state of Israel. Zionism was not a popular idea in America. It was not a popular idea in Europe in the 19th century and the 20th century.

As you say, it's certainly not a popular idea in the global south. So look, I think one can call it like it is. There's a different set of rules for Israel and there's a different set of rules for Ukraine. You're right. Part of that is politics, part of the U.S. election. But part of it is anti-Zionists. and part of it is anti-Semitism. I'm not saying for everyone and in every instance,

but I think beneath that, there's a lot of people that are very uncomfortable when Jews start fighting back because Jews aren't really supposed to do that. According to anti-Semites and anti-Zionists, Jews are supposed to, I guess, just accept whatever happens to them. And the whole point of creating a Jewish state

was so that Jews could defend themselves and fight back after the Holocaust. I think we've kind of lost that. awareness of the kind of fundamental tenant principle of the state of Israel. And maybe we should give Israel a little bit more benefit of the doubt in terms of why they're acting the way they're acting because of the purpose of that state and why it exists. You know, I read your, I know we're racing the clock here. But it is interesting to think for a moment about a comparison between Israel and Gaza and Lebanon on the one hand. What's called

going on in Sudan. This Sudan, comparative suffering is not a good conversation to have. Far more people displaced in Sudan than in the wars in the Middle East, far more. Ten million displaced.

Famine unequivocally declared. And who are fighting these wars? It's rapid, the rapid support forces in Sudan. who are Muslim against the army. So this is a military in which all the big powers in the police are on one side of this thing or another. Almost no coverage in our press.

Where is that? Where are the protesters when we are saying unprecedented levels of death, famine, displacement in Sudan? There is something about Israel. its location and its history. And as you said, it's legacy in the Middle East that just it pulls in international attention in a way that no other conflict does. I think any fair-minded person would acknowledge that. Well said, let's take a quick break. So goodbye to our complimentary monk listeners and join our monk curators and supporters on the other side. One moment. Thanks for listening to this excerpt of the Friday Focus podcast to get full-length editions of each and every episode of this

program. Simply go to our website, triple-w, the monkdebates.com. Click on the Friday Focus tab in our navigation on the top right of the site. Make a donation as little as $25 a year of 50 cents an episode and we'll send you not only the full-length editions of each and every Friday Focus podcast, but all kinds of special offers, perks, access to events, and additional content. Again, you can do that right now by becoming a donor to the Monk Debates at triple W. Monk Debates with an S.com.